NFL Chalk Talk: Week 17
The next wave of DFS analysis is ownership projection for GPPs. We could argue that knowing exactly what our opponents are going to do is just as important as our actual box-score projections from a game theory perspective.
Of course, projecting ownership is no easy task. I am not smart enough to do it with a model or algorithm. I do it with logic, feel and by closely monitoring who “everyone” is talking about.
So each week, I’ll give the three players at each position I think will be the highest owned in the large-field tournaments on DraftKings. Please understand these are NOT my top-ranked players at each position – it’s simply who I think will have the highest ownership percentage.
Editor’s Note: This refers to the main Sunday/Monday slate only.
Quarterback
1. Matt Ryan $5500 vs. NO: 18 percent
Almost every week, the quarterback facing the Saints is among the highest-owned quarterbacks. Blake Bortles was 27.1 percent last week, Jameis Winston was the most popular QB in Week 14 at 14.9 percent and Cam Newton was 24.7 percent in Week 13. Heck, even Brian Hoyer was the highest-owned QB in Week 12 when he faced the Saints at 27.6 percent. This brings me to Matt Ryan, who not only has a home game against the Saints but is also extremely cheap at $5500. That’s going to put a ton of traffic on him as there’s not a lot of quality value this week – especially at running back. Note that Ryan hasn’t reached 20 DK points in any of his last five games, and that includes a stunning clunker at Jacksonville.
2. Eli Manning $5600 vs. PHI: 17 percent
Everyone wants to roster Odell Beckham as he comes off suspension and faces the Eagles inept secondary. They’ll obviously pair him with Eli Manning, whose Week 16 debacle at Minnesota can be thrown out thanks to the freezing temps and OBJ’s absence. In the two weeks before that, Eli threw eight touchdowns. Now he has a home game with a massive 51.5 total against a rudderless Philly team.
3. Drew Brees $6700 at ATL: 13 percent
Game-log watchers will be all over Brees as he’s had at least 23 DK points in four straight games. During that span, he’s compiled an 11-1 TD-to-INT ratio and proved his torn plantar fascia is a non-issue. Just be aware that Brees has severe home/road splits again this year, something that’s plagued him throughout his career. In 109 career home games, he’s thrown 250 TDs and averaged 287.3 yards per game. In 108 road games, he’s at 177 TDs and averaged 271.0 yards per game.
4. Ben Roethlisberger at CLE: 12 percent
This is another week of flat QB ownership as I expect Cam Newton and Tom Brady to also be around the 8-12 percent range. Roethlisberger burned a ton of people last week, but the Steelers must win at Cleveland to have a shot at a playoff berth. It’s a bounce-back spot on paper, as the Browns have sunk to 28th in pass defense DVOA. Of course, facing a division opponent for the second time on the season and playing on the road (where Ben has relatively struggled for two years) is never easy.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED QBs: Carson Palmer 4 percent, Aaron Rodgers 2 percent, Blake Bortles 6 percent, Ryan Fitzpatrick 4 percent
Running Back
1. David Johnson $6000 vs. SEA: 30 percent
Johnson was 47.5 percent owned last week and produced again, this time putting 21.7 DK points on the Packers. I think he’ll come with significantly less ownership this week because the Seahawks have given up the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs – and the DK lobby makes that very clear with a red “1st” next under OPRK. However, the Seahawks don’t have much to play for at all and could rest starters in a game the Cardinals will be motivated for. They can still secure home field throughout the NFC playoffs with a win and a Panthers loss. Johnson, who projects for 90 percent of the snaps plus goal-line and pass-down work, remains a great play despite the matchup.
2. DeAngelo Williams $7100 at CLE: 24 percent
Williams was at 21.8 percent last week even though everyone also wanted to roster Roethlisberger/Antonio/Martavis. Then D-Willy went off for 36.3 DK points while the pass game tanked. Now Williams is armed with a better matchup, but his price jumped up $600 and there are other running backs in play at this price point. Devonta Freeman, Todd Gurley and Adrian Peterson will each get traffic, keeping Williams’ ownership reasonable.
3. Javorius Allen $4400 at CIN: 14 percent
I suspect Tim Hightower will also be in the 12-15 percent range as he comes off a 34.9-point day. The difference is Buck Allen costs $1100 less in a week we really need the savings. Buck also has the sexier name. Note that there’s some downside here as he was benched two weeks ago for just one fumble. But in a game the Ravens should be trailing big, Buck has a big ceiling thanks to his elite pass-game skills.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED RBs: Charcandrick West 7 percent, Rashad Jennings 8 percent, Todd Gurley 7 percent
Wide Receiver
1. Odell Beckham Jr. $9000 vs. PHI: 32 percent
Beckham comes out of suspension against an Eagles defense that ranks 23rd DVOA against No. 1 wideouts. When these two teams met in similarly meaningless Week 17 game last year, Beckham went 12-185-1 on an outrageous 21 targets. The only reason OBJ’s ownership won’t be higher in this spot is because Julio Jones ($8500), Antonio Brown ($9300), DeAndre Hopkins ($8400) and Brandon Marshall ($7900) all have plus matchups as well.
2. Julio Jones $8500 vs. NO: 30 percent
Josh Norman did a decent job on Julio last week. But the box score shows 9-178-1 on the heels of a 9-118-1. Now comes a matchup with the flow-chart Saints defense. Note that Julio is 17 catches and 243 yards away from setting single-season records in those categories. If he starts to get close late in the game, perhaps the Falcons feed him even more than usual (#narrative street). It’s difficult to fit both Julio and Odell in lineups, but a lot of people are going to try.
3. Antonio Brown $9300 at CLE: 19 percent
From a GPP game theory perspective, it’s important to realize Brown, DeAndre Hopkins and Brandon Marshall will likely be less owned than Odell/Julio. I suspect Nuk and BMarsh will be in the 10-15 percent range. However, we could argue that the three lesser-owned guys have a similar ceiling to the top-two, making a pivot play very viable.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED WRs: A.J. Green 6 percent, Martavis Bryant 9 percent, Nate Washington 7 percent
Tight End
1. Zach Ertz $3600 at NYG: 35 percent
There are not a lot of quality cheapies at RB or WR this week. So spending up on weekly disappointment Rob Gronkowski or Greg Olsen is going to be difficult. Jordan Reed is also out of play for me as the Redskins already have the No. 4 seed locked up. That’s going to lead everyone to Ertz, who has racked up an outrageous 30 targets over the last two weeks. He has a very plus matchup against the Giants slow group of linebackers and safeties. All that said, I think Ertz is a pretty good fade at this projected ownership. He has seven games under 50 yards this year.
2. Zach Miller $4600 vs. DET: 13 percent
Miller’s price has jumped up $600 this week, putting him at a range he’ll have trouble “crushing” value. But Alshon Jeffery is out and Miller has a matchup with a Lions defense giving up the third-most fantasy points to tight ends. Note that Miller’s ownership will shrink and Tyler Eifert’s will soar if we get confirmation that Eifert is expected to play the full game Sunday. He’s coming off a concussion.
3. Rob Gronkowski $7400 at MIA: 12 percent
Everyone from sharps to the general public is fed up with Gronk. He’s been overpriced for nearly four months now as people tried to chase down his three-TD outburst from Week 1. So even in a good spot against the Jets last week, Gronk was only 10.0 percent owned. He still has the highest ceiling at the tight end position which is intriguing when he’s around 10-12 percent owned, but his price is very prohibitive in a week with such little value.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED TEs: Eric Ebron 3 percent, Vance McDonald 1 percent, Gary Barnidge 6 percent, Delanie Walker 7 percent