NFL Grind Down: Week 1 - Page Four
Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos
| Baltimore Ravens | Denver Broncos | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 4:25 p.m. | Mile High Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | 49 | 22.25 | -4.5 | 49 | 26.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 26.1 | 8 | 10 | 5 | Offense | 29.1 | 4 | 3 | 13 | |
| Defense | 18.6 | 12 | 7 | 2 | Defense | 15.3 | 2 | 17 | 4 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Denver Broncos | 25 | 13 | 4 | 29 | Baltimore Ravens | 15 | 1 | 30 | 13 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Smith | 134 | 79 | 6 | 1065 | Thomas | 184 | 111 | 11 | 1619 | |
| Aiken | 31 | 24 | 3 | 267 | Sanders | 141 | 101 | 9 | 1448 | |
| Perriman | Latimer | 3 | 2 | 0 | 23 | |||||
| Gillmore | 13 | 10 | 1 | 121 | Daniels | 79 | 48 | 4 | 527 | |
Things get interesting once we hit the later portion of this week’s schedule, as three of the top games for daily fantasy purposes are found here at the tail end of the weekend. The first is a matchup between an elite quarterback and an “elite” quarterback in a rematch of the 2013 playoff game that brought us this all-time failure from Rahim Moore.
The Quick Grind
BAL Matchup Rating: 6.0
DEN Matchup Rating: 7.5
Notable injuries and suspensions: Lorenzo Taliaferro (BAL, Out, Injury), Breshad Perriman (BAL, Out, Injury), Dennis Pitta (BAL, Out, Injury)
Baltimore Ravens
This game holds fantasy appeal, but not a lot of it can be found on the Baltimore sideline. The Broncos were in the top five in both run and pass defense according to Football Outsiders last year, and Pro Football Focus graded them as one of the best in every facet of the defensive game. They’ve got one of the best secondaries in the league and an elite edge player in Von Miller. Combine all that with the Broncos ranking as the lowest variance defense in the league (per FO), and it’s tough to see how they find much success against a stacked defensive unit for Denver.
Joe Flacco (FD $8,200, DK $6,700) will try to find a way to navigate this defense and throw a touchdown or two, but all of his best performances last year came against bottom-feeder pass defenses like the Bucs, Steelers and Falcons. There are far better options at his price point and below, and he’s off the table this weekend as a daily fantasy option.
The receiving corps is incredibly thin, with veteran Steve Smith (FD $6,700, DK $6,400) holding down the top spot on the depth chart, but likely to see a ton of attention as teams won’t be scared of Kamar Aiken (FD $4,600, DK $3,300) or Marlon Brown (FD $4,500, DK $3,000). Breshad Perriman will add a new element to the offense once he’s healthy and up to speed, but that won’t come in time for this one. Avoid the Baltimore receivers against elite corners Aqib Talib and Chris Harris.
Justin Forsett (FD $7,800, DK $6,200) will get touches, but he’s expensive and is on the wrong side of the projected flow of this game. You can do better with your investment at running back.
The Takeaway: The Broncos aren’t huge favorites in this one, but the relatively tight spread has nothing to do with the Baltimore offense. There’s nothing of value here.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos are home favorites in a matchup with a team that allowed a ton of points to wideouts last year. Some of you have already switched windows and clicked on the plus sign next to Demaryius Thomas (FD $8,800, DK $9,100) on your preferred daily fantasy website. I can’t blame you.
Peyton Manning (FD $9,100, DK $8,200) is among the most expensive signal callers this week, and while it’s usually never a bad idea to roster Manning, there are other viable choices this week. Manning has collapsed late in past seasons only to come back and play well to start the next year, but can we continue to bank on such an old player continuing to find his rhythm and stride to start every new year? I won’t bet against him, but I’m also not going to load up on him. I guess that makes him a smart tournament play if others think like I do, and suspect that the Broncos are going to become a run-first team as they look to prepare for a post-Peyton era.
But if you’re trusting that Manning will be fine early this season, and it’s just cold weather, the fatigue of a long NFL season, and the pressure of big games that gets to him down the stretch, you’ll wanna pair him up with the aforementioned Thomas. The Ravens allowed nearly 33 FanDuel points per game to opposing wideouts last year, and elite receivers like Antonio Brown and A.J. Green were in on that action. Thomas takes precedence over Emmanuel Sanders (FD $8,200, DK $7,900), as the former is a better touchdown threat (39 red zone targets last year to Sanders’ 20). Owen Daniels (FD $5,500, DK $3,400) steps into the starting tight end role, and is therefore in play at a position lacking in upside across the board. Julius Thomas hauled in nine red zone touchdowns on 15 targets last season in this offense, and while Daniels isn’t as athletic as Thomas, he can certainly get open and grab a few scores this season.
If you’re of the opinion that the Broncos are going to try to slow things down and run more often, this isn’t the week for you to put your money where your mouth is. The Ravens were a top run defense last year, having earned the best team grade in that facet of the game from Pro Football Focus. C.J. Anderson (FD $8,400, DK $7,000) can and will get involved in the passing game, which could be a source of fantasy points, but it’s not worth banking on at his price. If you think the Broncos will try to run over the Ravens (with their unspectacular offensive line), you’re thinking of Anderson as a tournament play at best.
The Takeaway: The Denver passing game is in play if you don’t think the Broncos have given up on Peyton Manning under their new head coach, and are ready to shift into a new identity. I think it would be foolish for the Broncos to try to run to win against Baltimore, and will have shares of Thomas to capitalize on a weak Baltimore pass defense.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
| New York Giants | Dallas Cowboys | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 8:30 p.m. | AT&T Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 51.5 | 23 | -5.5 | 51.5 | 28.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.8 | 13 | 12 | 23 | Offense | 28.4 | 5 | 11 | 2 | |
| Defense | 18.4 | 10 | 9 | 6 | Defense | 22.5 | 21 | 25 | 30 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 21 | 16 | 7 | 32 | New York Giants | 28 | 24 | 12 | 21 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Cruz | 41 | 23 | 1 | 337 | Bryant | 136 | 88 | 16 | 1320 | |
| Randle | 127 | 71 | 3 | 938 | Williams | 63 | 37 | 8 | 621 | |
| Jones | 111 | 73 | 6 | 666 | Beasley | 49 | 37 | 4 | 420 | |
| Donnell | 92 | 63 | 6 | 623 | Witten | 90 | 64 | 5 | 703 | |
The “catch heard round the world” will be the talking point in the build-up to this one, as the Giants face Dallas for the first time since Brandon Carr was posterized in the most embarrassing moment in a victory the NFL has seen in recent years. Vegas expects this one to go like many Giants/Cowboys games have gone in recent history, with plenty of points and a Dallas victory.
The Quick Grind
NYG Matchup Rating: 6.5
DAL Matchup Rating: 8.5
Notable injuries and suspensions: Dez Bryant (DAL, Probable, Injury), Victor Cruz (NYG, Out, Injury)
New York Giants
Odell Beckham Jr. (FD $8,900, DK $9,200) faces the team that helped launch him to superstar status last season, when he finished the season with fantasy football numbers that could only be compared to Jerry Rice, Randy Moss and Calvin Johnson. Season-long fantasy players haven’t been drafting Beckham with the expectation that he keeps up the pace from a year ago, but with Victor Cruz ailing and a familiar foe on the schedule, daily gamers might need to buy into the hype once again.
Brandon Carr was the worst defensive back for the Cowboys last season per PFF, and his 116.6 passer rating allowed was in the bottom-10 among corners to take 25% of their team’s snaps. He was the only player in the bottom 20 to play over 1000 plays for his team, making him one of the worst regular corners in the NFL last year. It’s no wonder he’ll go down in history as the player who fell victim to Beckham’s highlight-reel grab. Carr figures to be the man responsible for Beckham again this season, as he doesn’t appear on the injury list despite having surgery on a broken hand early last month. No more analysis is needed. Beckham is an elite option.
With Victor Cruz sitting this one out, many will turn to Rueben Randle (FD $5,300, DK $5,100) as a potential source of fantasy points. Randle did see his fair share of targets last season, but often failed to make them count. Randle, Beckham and tight end Larry Donnell (FD $5,300, DK $3,200) all saw over 20 red zone targets last year. OBJ caught 65% of his, Donnell 50% of his, and Randle 38% of his. That sums up the Giants’ passing game for this one, as you get riskier and more “GPP” as you move down that list.
The Cowboys get back Sean Lee on defense, which should help bolster their run stopping unit that finished in the middle of the pack last season. He’s moved outside to weakside linebacker this season, but will still be active in hunting down opposing running backs and defending short throws. That has me a bit more pessimistic than I would be otherwise about Liberty alum Rashad Jennings (FD $6,600, DK $5,100), who may still return value in the most boring, unspectacular way possible. But with Shane Vereen (FD $6,500, DK $4,200) in town to steal a few targets, and Andre Williams (FD $5,500, DK $3,000) still lurking to steal a few carries, there’s just nothing to put a healthy amount of trust in for the New York running game. I’ll be avoiding this group.
The Takeaway: Odell Beckham and his quarterback Eli Manning (FD $8,300, DK $7,400) are in play, especially in tournaments where Beckham’s big play potential could be the key to the top of the leaderboard, even if he’s fairly highly owned. Larry Donnell is a fine tight end option who should see targets in the red zone, something valuable at a scarce position.
Dallas Cowboys
If you thought the New York running game was frustrating, you’ll hate the Dallas backfield, especially given the matchup and the elite offensive line in place to block for whoever totes the rock for the Cowboys. Dallas’ front five on offense were absolutely incredible last season, paving the way for DeMarco Murray to run like crazy, and for backups to step in and cover for Murray like nothing had changed.
One of those backups was Joseph Randle (FD $6,900, DK $5,900), who is now the “starter” in Murray’s absence. This would theoretically be a great role to have against a defense that allowed the tenth-most fantasy points to running backs last year, but his job as starter is nominal at best. Darren McFadden (FD $6,600, DK $4,400) will get chances to carry the ball, and Lance Dunbar (FD $5,000, DK $3,000) will see snaps in passing situations. Whoever plays well will likely stay on the field and feast upon running lanes opened up by an elite offensive line against a bad run defense, but I have no faith in any of these backs to earn the trust of the coaches and become “the guy” in this game. McFadden has the pedigree and theoretically has the talent, and hopefully is healthy considering this is the first week of the season, so he’d be my pick if I was forced to choose one.
And while it might be tough for us to find the right player to start from the Dallas running game, it remains the focal point of their attack, and will impact how they call plays and manage their offense. The Cowboys ran their attack at a very slow pace last year, and will likely do so again. This means Tony Romo (FD $8,700, DK $7,300) and his receivers don’t have the same volume they would in an offense with a faster tempo or a weaker running game. But it doesn’t take a ton of throws for Romo and his weapons to stack up the points. And while the top two cover corners for the Giants, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Prince Amukamara are both healthy and projected to start, neither did very well against Dez Bryant (FD $8,700, DK $8,700) last year. Dez is an elite receiver in a matchup he’s proven he can succeed in. Start him with confidence.
Jason Witten (FD $5,800, DK $4,000) is boring and lacks a high ceiling, but he’s a fine option at tight end against a team that allowed a decent amount of fantasy points (tenth most in the league) to the position last year (including three touchdowns to Dallas tight ends).
The Takeaway: If you have the guts to pick a running back from the stable of options in Dallas, you could win a lot of money if you hit the right one. Otherwise, stick to Dez Bryant, possibly in a stack with Tony Romo, and consider Jason Witten as a tight end option.
Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons
| Philadelphia Eagles | Atlanta Falcons | |||||||||
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| Monday – 7:10 p.m. | Georgia Dome | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 54.5 | 28.5 | 2.5 | 54.5 | 26 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 29.6 | 2 | 9 | 10 | Offense | 23.8 | 12 | 6 | 25 | |
| Defense | 23.4 | 24 | 32 | 22 | Defense | 25.0 | 26 | 31 | 18 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 24 | 31 | 26 | 10 | Philadelphia Eagles | 30 | 22 | 31 | 3 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Matthews | 102 | 67 | 8 | 872 | Jones | 163 | 104 | 6 | 1594 | |
| Agholor | White | 125 | 80 | 7 | 921 | |||||
| Huff | 16 | 8 | 0 | 105 | Hankerson | |||||
| Celek | 50 | 32 | 1 | 340 | Tamme | 28 | 14 | 2 | 109 | |
This is the one we’ve all been waiting for. Two fast-paced offenses with bad defenses playing in a dome. Conditions could not be any better for scoring lots of points, both in the official NFL scorebook and on daily fantasy sites.
The Quick Grind
PHI Matchup Rating: 9.0
ATL Matchup Rating: 8.0
Notable injuries and suspensions: Zach Ertz (PHI, Questionable, Injury), Devonta Freeman (ATL, Questionable, Injury), Roddy White (ATL, Probable, Injury)
Philadelphia Eagles
Road favorites with the highest implied team total on the weekend slate, Chip Kelly’s Eagles have a plan, and that plan is to score points. The Atlanta Falcons were a bad defense across the board last season, as evidenced by allowing 475 yards to the Browns in Week 12. Were it not for home games against the division rival Bucs and Panthers, the Falcons would have likely been even worse on defense. Imagine if they had to play the Bears and Packers twice instead! Their division certainly saved them from further embarrassment, and may actually make their horrible defensive stats last year look good relative to how the team actually played.
Sam Bradford (FD $7,500, DK $6,900) is Chip Kelly’s quarterback. I want Chip Kelly’s quarterback in daily fantasy football. This is especially true when he’s going up against a defense that can’t rush the passer and has a corner who allowed the sixth-most yards per catch last season (per Pro Football Focus). Robert Alford struggled last season, but his counterpart, Desmond Trufant, is actually a respectable corner. And against a team with one key receiving option for Trufant to attempt to shut down, that would be a concern. But the Eagles have multiple passing game options, and Bradford will be free to choose whoever has the best matchup. Bradford is my top dollar per point play at quarterback this weekend.
Considering Chip Kelly’s QB-friendly system and a lack of a clear superstar, I think it’s viable to not stack Bradford with any receiver with the expectation that the Philly QB just carves up the Atlanta defense with no focus on any one target. But if you want to stack, Jordan Matthews (FD $6,800, DK $7,200) has to be your choice, especially on FanDuel. The Vanderbilt product is a terrific talent who came into his own late last season, and is a versatile, athletic wideout who can break a big play and score in the red zone. Rookie Nelson Agholor (FD $5,500, DK $5,700) is also an option, but the price jump up to Matthews is doable considering the value options available at other positions. Brent Celek (FD $4,500, DK $2,500) is the play at tight end if Zach Ertz (FD $5,400, DK $3,600) is unable to suit up due to injury, while Ertz is a fine tournament option if he’s deemed fit to play. But with this game happening so far after roster lock on non-late-swap sites, you’re not going to be able to make an informed decision unless Ertz is ruled out ahead of time.
As bad as the Falcons were against the pass last year, they were worse against the run. The allowed the second-most points to opposing running backs, and unlike the Raiders, that is backed up by poor metrics at Football Outsiders. Atlanta just doesn’t have talent in their front seven, and they get pushed around and run over by opposing rushing attacks. That means DeMarco Murray (FD $8,500, DK $6,700) is 100% in play, even though he’s not going to be in quite as elite of a situation as he was last year in Dallas. The Philadelphia offensive line has undergone some changes and may not be as elite as it was a year ago, but that won’t matter against the Falcons. Ryan Mathews (FD $5,900, DK $3,600) is an option if you think this game gets ugly, as he’s likely to help keep Murray fresh in a blowout, but otherwise is tough to use until we see a clear role for him in the offense. Darren Sproles (FD $5,800, DK $3,300) is an option if you think the Falcons keep this competitive and the Eagles will air it out into the fourth quarter, but I’m not convinced there’s any degree of safety in Sproles, who seemed to be a trolling mechanism for Kelly rather than an actual consistent role player.
The Takeaway: There are more options here than you could possibly know what to do with. Bradford, Matthews, Nelson, Murray and the tight end are all in play. Sproles is worthy of consideration as maybe the least-likely to be owned, but with the highest level of risk.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are underdogs in this contest, but they are playing at home, and still projected to score nearly four touchdowns. They didn’t play at quite as high of a tempo the Eagles did last year, but they were still among the quicker teams in football, and will also benefit from the fast pace of their opponent’s offense. There will be tons of offensive plays, and plenty of great results from those plays, in this contests.
The Philadelphia run defense was actually pretty good last year (seventh-best according to Football Outsiders), and combining that with the return to health of Kiko Alonso, and it’s probably best to attack the Eagles via the air. Matt Ryan (FD $8,800, DK $7,500) is a great quarterback option against a defense that allowed the third-most points to opposing quarterbacks and the most points to opposing wideouts last year. The Eagles did make some improvements on defense, but none that are going to scare me away from rostering Ryan at home in a game where he may throw 40 times.
The Eagles will reportedly try to use Byron Maxwell as a shadow corner this year, and he’ll be thrown right into the fire with a matchup against Julio Jones (FD $9,000, DK $9,300). Jones is the better football player in this matchup, and will get the best of the former Seattle defensive back who had positive moments as a part of a great defense, but will be facing an entirely different challenge with Philly. Roddy White (FD $7,600, DK $6,500) is expensive given his injury concerns and age, but he’s practicing and seems ready to play, and will therefore be an option this weekend. Leonard Hankerson (FD $4,500, DK $3,000) is the third receiver who would benefit from White’s absence, but otherwise doesn’t have enough of a role to pay up for in DFS. Jacob Tamme (FD $4,900, DK $2,600) provides a competent pass catcher at tight end, but has very little upside.
Tevin Coleman (FD $6,700, DK $4,800) will start at running back for the Falcons, and the rookie from Indiana will immediately get to face a team that graded out fairly well against the run last year, but still allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to the position. Devonta Freeman (FD $6,500, DK $4,300) looks likely to play, as well, but he’s been dealing with an injury, and isn’t the talent Coleman is. The rookie is one of the better upside plays at running back, especially if you have the right amount of salary left for him and don’t yet have exposure to the Atlanta offense. He could struggle against a talented defense and then be taken out of the game by game flow, or he could impress and break off a big play or two at a mid-tier price.
The Takeaway: Just like the other side of this game, there are plenty of options. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones are core plays, while Roddy White and Tevin Coleman carry risk but are worth your consideration.
Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers
| Minnesota Vikings | San Francisco 49ers | |||||||||
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| Monday – 10:20 p.m. | Candlestick Park | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 41.5 | 22 | 2.5 | 41.5 | 19.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 20.3 | 19 | 26 | 17 | Offense | 19.1 | 24 | 31 | 7 | |
| Opp. Defense | 21.3 | 17 | 10 | 12 | Opp. Defense | 21.4 | 18 | 15 | 25 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| San Francisco 49ers | 6 | 7 | 8 | 24 | Minnesota Vikings | 9 | 25 | 9 | 11 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Wallace | 114 | 67 | 10 | 878 | Boldin | 131 | 83 | 5 | 1066 | |
| Johnson | 6 | 3 | 0 | 29 | Smith | 92 | 49 | 11 | 767 | |
| Wright | 60 | 42 | 2 | 659 | Patton | 7 | 3 | 0 | 64 | |
| Rudolph | 34 | 24 | 2 | 231 | Davis | 48 | 26 | 2 | 249 | |
The final game of Week 1 doesn’t seem like it has a lot of fantasy appeal, but with road favorites Minnesota having a couple of attractive options on offense, this game could swing leaderboards at the last minute on Monday night.
The Quick Grind
MIN Matchup Rating: 3.5
SF Matchup Rating: 4.0
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
Minnesota Vikings
A year ago, the tenor of this write-up would have been entirely different. “Avoid the talented 49ers defense, especially against a relatively unproven quarterback.” The Niners finished fourth in DVOA against the pass and tenth against the run according to Football Outsiders, and were above average against both according to PFF last season. But this summer brought about wholesale changes for the Niners, and none of them were good. Chris Culliver, Justin Smith, Chris Borland, Patrick Willis, Aldon Smith, Perrish Cox and Dan Skuta are all gone, along with coach Jim Harbaugh. That’s their best cover corner, three talented linebackers, a veteran presence on the defensive line, and key role players out the door, with not a ton of talent coming in the other direction to replace them.
Even if the Niners figure out how to make their new roster work, I can’t see things going well for them in Week 1 with so much turmoil and change. That means I am excited about the prospect of Teddy Bridgewater (FD $7,200, DK $6,600) getting a chance to start his second season in the NFL against this team. Bridgewater was a great prospect out of Louisville and showed that he can translate that skill to the NFL level at times last season. The defensive backfield for the Niners doesn’t look very good, and they’re without a key member of their pass rush from years past, so Teddy should have time and space to work. He’s among the best options at the position from a point per dollar standpoint, although not as impressive as Sam Bradford.
Charles Johnson (FD $5,600, DK $4,900) is his best weapon at receiver, and yes, that includes Mike Wallace (FD $6,400, DK $6,000). Wallace is a household name, and is a fine selection in your DFS contests, but Johnson is an incredible talent who finally got his shot last year with the Vikings and took full advantage. He didn’t see a ton of targets on a consistent basis a year ago, but he did catch all five of the passes thrown at him this preseason, scored a touchdown, and then didn’t play in the team’s final preseason game. That’s as good of an indication as any that he (along with Wallace) are the top receivers for the Vikings, and both are fine plays against a decimated San Francisco defensive backfield. Kyle Rudolph (FD $5,300, DK $3,500) was one a Pro Bowl level tight end, but has dealt with injuries and a struggling offense over the past two seasons. Someone has to take the red zone targets that went to Greg Jennings last year, and my money is on Rudolph seeing a good handful of them.
Oh, and Adrian Peterson (FD $9,200, DK $7,700) is back. The man who totaled over 2300 yards from scrimmage in 2012 missed most of last season due to suspension, and was linked with a move out of Minnesota, but still sits atop the depth chart as we enter 2015. The Niners have more talent left in the front seven than they do in their back four, especially when it comes to stopping the run, but that is unlikely to be the reason why Peterson doesn’t return value. What will possibly limit Peterson is his football fitness and sharpness after being away from the competitive game for so long. He didn’t appear in the preseason, and dealt with a slight injury during training camp. There are so many reasons to be concerned with Peterson, and yet, it would come as no surprise if he runs for 150 yards and two touchdowns to open the season. I don’t think you can even begin to trust him in cash games, but he’s definitely a tournament option.
The Takeaway: Teddy Bridgewater opens his sophomore season with a nice matchup for himself and his top receivers, Johnson and Wallace. All are core plays. Adrian Peterson is a GPP option with huge upside, but plenty of question marks after a prolonged absence from football.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are home underdogs against the Vikings, a statement that two or three years ago would have sounded like a joke. But after the tumultuous offseason in the Bay Area, it’s completely justified. The Vikings weren’t a spectacular defense last season against either the run or pass, but the ground game was definitely the bigger threat their defensive unit.
That means Carlos Hyde (FD $7,300, DK $5,300) is in play, but the Niners’ underdog status gives me a bit of pause when considering the young running back. He’ll face a defense that ranked in the bottom ten in Football Outsiders run defense statistics and allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to the position last year. The ceiling is capped and his workload may be limited by the flow of the game and the presence of Reggie Bush (FD $5,500, DK $3,900), which means there are better options in his price range.
Colin Kaepernick (FD $7,900, DK $7,000) will get his chances to run against the Vikings’ lackluster run defense as well, something he did quite a bit at the end of last season under then quarterbacks coach, now offensive coordinator Geep Chryst. But he won’t return value on his salary unless he throws the ball successfully as well, something he definitely struggled with a year ago. Minnesota limited opposing quarterbacks to a slightly below average amount of points per game (11th fewest in the league) last year, and added veteran corner Terence Newman and rookie Trae Waynes to the ranks in the defensive backfield. Top cover corner Xavier Rhodes and solid safety Harrison Smith both return, and limit the upside for the Niners’ passing game. Slot Corner Captain Munnerlyn will have trouble dealing with Anquan Boldin (FD $6,600, DK $6,200) when he lines up inside, as the veteran is still capable of using his size and his technical ability to get open. Otherwise, I’m avoiding the Niners’ passing game.
The Takeaway: Carlos Hyde is on the wrong side of the Vegas line but offers potential in a decent matchup. The passing game is risky, with Anquan Boldin representing the only player I’ll consider, and at his price, he’s a tournament play at best.