NFL Grind Down: Week 1 - Page Three

by LeoTPP Last Updated 2015-09-13 12:00:15

New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals

New Orleans Saints						Arizona Cardinals
Sunday – 4:05 p.m.						Univ. of Phoenix Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		2.5	47	22.25				-2.5	47	24.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	25.1	9	4	16		Offense	19.2	23	16	31
Defense	17.6	6	23	13		Defense	24.4	25	27	29
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Arizona Cardinals	23	2	18	27		New Orleans Saints	29	28	25	9
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Colston	98	59	5	902		Fitzgerald	103	63	2	784
Cooks	69	53	4	623		Floyd	97	47	6	843
Coleman						Brown	99	48	5	690
Watson	31	20	2	136		Johnson	1	1	0	4

After a few games with low totals, we’ve got a decent matchup here with a total approaching 50. The Saints travel west to play the Cardinals in a matchup of veteran quarterbacks. Both of these teams are projected to score above the average amount of points this weekend, so we’ll want to target some of these players.

The Quick Grind

NO Matchup Rating: 7.5
ARI Matchup Rating: 6.5

Notable injuries and suspensions: Jermaine Gresham (ARI, Questionable, Injury), Michael Floyd (ARI, Questionable, Injury), C.J. Spiller (NO, Out, Injury)

New Orleans Saints

Fantasy experts have been yelling from the rooftops for a couple of years that the Cardinals are vulnerable to tight ends, which would be great if the Saints still had Jimmy Graham. But Drew Brees (FD $8,900, DK $8,000) will have to throw to someone else down the seam this season, as the athletic tight end was shipped to Seattle in the offseason.

Brees has been a staple of season-long and daily fantasy lineups for quite some time, but his career is definitely on the downward slope, rapidly approaching retirement. His interception total was equal to or greater than his touchdown total in three of his last four starts last season, and his 17 total interceptions were Jay Cutler-esque. With that being said, Brees still threw the ball at least 36 times in each of his last four starts and in seven of his last eight, so while he might have been throwing it to the wrong team more often than we’d like, the volume is certainly still there. He faces an Arizona defense that was slightly above average against the pass according to Football Outsiders, but that allowed the tenth-most points to opposing quarterbacks.

With that in mind, Brees is definitely an option (even with his inflated price tag), but you may prefer to get your piece of this game through the receiving options. Brandin Cooks (FD $7,400, DK $7,100) will move all over the formation for the Saints, and will likely pick up several of the targets that once belonged to Jimmy Graham. Many people fear the coverage of Patrick Peterson, but he’s been inconsistent recently and shouldn’t scare you away from any Saints wideouts. Plus, with how often Cooks moves around the formation, New Orleans will work to get him in favorable spots to get open no matter the coverage. He’s a great second tier receiving option.

Brandon Coleman (FD $4,500, DK $3,000) waited in the wings last season, but he’s a huge receiving target (Vincent Jackson-sized) who can move (40-yard dash just above 4.5 seconds) and who was pretty productive in college with 20 career touchdowns for Rutgers. With Graham gone and Marques Colston (FD $5,500, DK $6,000) joining Brees on the path to obscurity, Coleman’s time to shine is now. He may see some of Patrick Peterson, who is among the few corners in the league who can even begin to match up with him physically, but I’m still willing to take a chance on him in a lineup or two. And if you want to take a chance on one of the old guys catching passes in this offense, I’d prefer Benjamin Watson (FD $4,600, DK $2,600) as his position gives the Cardinals fits, and because his price is much more appealing than Colston’s.

The Cardinals were a very strong run defense last year, grading out sixth in Football Outsiders DVOA against the run and allowing only 17 FanDuel points per game to opposing backs (third best in the league). There will come a day when Mark Ingram (FD $7,800, DK $5,600) will crack my lineups, but it isn’t this Sunday.

The Takeaway: Drew Brees is in play but not your best option under center, while Brandin Cooks and Benjamin Watson are pass catching options you can roster to get a piece of this offense. Avoid the running game in a tough matchup for a road underdog.

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals will benefit from the Saints’ increased pace in this matchup, and as home favorites against a weak defense, there’s a lot to like about a team people aren’t talking about as a DFS goldmine this weekend.

Carson Palmer (FD $7,700, DK $6,500) is old and on the decline like Drew Brees, but we already know that Palmer has adjusted to his lack of youth and plays within himself while still delivering solid numbers with the occasional (okay, regular) interception or two. He struggles to stay healthy, but he’s reportedly looking fine right now after suffering a shoulder injury last season. The Saints allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks a year ago, and will be missing Keenan Lewis and Jairus Byrd for this game. Palmer is one of the five best options under center, and price considered, I see little reason to use Brees over him on FD or DK.

The status of Michael Floyd (FD $6,100, DK $5,800) is very much up in the air, as the volatile wideout is dealing with dislocated fingers. If he suits up, I’m not sure he’s trustworthy from a health or an opportunity perspective. He’s never more than a GPP play, and for the sake of clarity, gamers should hope he sits this one out to open up targets for his teammates. John Brown (FD $6,000, DK $4,500) is in play whether or not Floyd plays, as the dynamic young receiver out of Division II Pittsburg State hauled in five touchdowns on 48 catches last season and will almost certainly be more involved this year as Larry Fitzgerald (FD $6,000, DK $5,500) starts his ride off into the sunset. Brandon Browner doesn’t have the athleticism to keep up with Brown, and the other Saints defensive backs are unproven and incapable of keeping the speedster in check. Fitzgerald is in play, too, but Brown is a top option at receiver for tournaments, as he’s capable of breaking a long score or two against a defense ill prepared to deal with his dynamic talent.

The Saints ranked last in defending the run according to Football Outsiders, and their PFF grades weren’t great, either. Six backs gained more than 90 yards on the ground against New Orleans last year, while two gained over 100 through the air. It’s easy to forget the 5.5 yards per carry, 9.5 yards per reception version of Andre Ellington (FD $7,900, DK $6,400) from 2013, but after a year dampened by injuries, the dynamic back should be ready to go for a favorable matchup in Week 1. He may get run into the ground and wind up hurt and ineffective again this season, but we don’t have to worry about that this week. He’s an option in all formats with some huge upside. The presence of veteran Chris Johnson (FD $4,500, DK $3,200) and rookie David Johnson (FD $5,300, DK $3,800) will allow the Cardinals to take some pressure off of Ellington and may cut into his volume, but he was a far better fantasy option in a more limited role during his first season, and we should embrace his competition and trust his talent in this matchup.

The Takeaway: The Cardinals have good matchups through the air and on the ground. Carson Palmer, John Brown, Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Ellington are all in play.

Detroit Lions at San Diego Chargers

Detroit Lions						San Diego Chargers
Sunday – 4:05 p.m.						Qualcomm Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		2.5	46	21.75				-2.5	46	24.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	20.1	21	8	24		Offense	21.8	17	14	29
Defense	21.8	19	6	26		Defense	16.6	3	11	1
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
San Diego Chargers	16	14	10	5		Detroit Lions	5	8	13	20
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Johnson	129	71	8	1077		Allen	121	77	4	783
Tate	143	99	4	1361		Floyd	92	52	6	856
Fuller	27	14	1	212		Johnson	47	35	3	435
Ebron	48	25	1	248		Gates	98	69	12	821

With so many games this weekend completely lacking in fantasy potential, a matchup between two decent offenses will command some of our attention, even if the matchups aren’t the best. Veteran quarterbacks with proven track records of success square off in what should be one of the more competitive games of the weekend, and there are DFS options to be found in this one.

The Quick Grind

DET Matchup Rating: 4.0
SD Matchup Rating: 5.0

Notable injuries and suspensions: Antonio Gates (SD, Out, Suspension), Ladarius Green (SD, Questionable, Injury – In concussion protocol)

Detroit Lions

The Lions are road underdogs in this matchup, which means we may want to look to their passing game for our daily lineups. Matthew Stafford (FD $7,800, DK $7,000) is a fairly well-known quantity at this point, as the former Georgia Bulldog will throw quite a few passes, some of them will be good, others will be bad, and by the end of the season he’ll have 4000 yards and 20 or more touchdowns. San Diego ranked 25th in pass defense last year according to Football Outsiders, and allowed opposing signal callers to score multiple touchdowns in eight of their 16 games last season. Some of those names are to be expected (Manning, Brady, Wilson) but others are disappointing if you’re a Chargers fan (Carr 4 TDs, Flacco 2 pass, 1 rush TD, Tannehill 3 TD). Stafford is therefore in play, but with the caution that 1) he’s going to make mistakes and 2) Vegas doesn’t love this game as much as some others, and the Lions are underdogs.

Calvin Johnson (FD $8,500, DK $8,500) is playing. Calvin Johnson is an option. Golden Tate (FD $7,100, DK $6,300) plays out of the slot quite a bit, a position that will be manned by Patrick Robinson this year. Last year, playing for the Saints, Robinson held the receivers he covered to only one score, while picking off two passes and defending seven more. He’s not consistent, but he’s capable of taking Tate out of the game if he’s given the chance. Unfortunately, when the Saints and Lions played last year, Robinson didn’t line up against Tate, so we don’t have any data to go by from that game. Tate is a tournament play, as he’s a talented guy, but he’s not a lock. Eric Ebron (FD $5,000, DK $2,900) is recovering from an injury and should play, but he’s not appealing against a San Diego team with an elite safety in Eric Weddle, and that held tight ends to the fifth-fewest points last year.

The Chargers don’t stand out as a run defense, having allowed the 19th most fantasy points per game last year. That’s not a great matchup for the Lions, either, especially considering the uncertainty surrounding their running back situation. Joique Bell (FD $6,500, DK $5,200) is a bit banged up (despite not appearing on the injury report) and faces tough competition from rookie Ameer Abdullah (FD $5,900, DK $4,000), and I’m not overly interested in either as road underdogs in what amounts to a slightly worse than average matchup.

The Takeaway: Matthew Stafford is on the table, along with Calvin Johnson, as top options in a pretty decent matchup. Golden Tate is a tournament play, and there’s nothing else noteworthy on this side of the ball.

San Diego Chargers

The Lions were one of the best defenses in the league last year, with Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders both ranking them among the NFL’s elite at stopping the run and in the top half of the league against the pass. Ndamukong Suh is gone, but Haloti Ngata will provide a capable (but not as talented) replacement in the middle of that defense. Glover Quin and Rashean Mathis return as the stars of the defensive backfield, but top linebacker DeAndre Levy is likely to miss this first game due to injury.

All that to say, I’m not sure where Vegas expects the 24-ish points for San Diego to come from, but I’m going to have to assume it’s through the air. Melvin Gordon (FD $7,100, DK $5,500) is a rookie but likely get a decent share of the carries, while Danny Woodhead (FD $6,000, DK $3,700) will play in run and pass situations to help keep things interesting. Woodhead is interesting for PPR reasons on DraftKings, but not enough to justify more than a random tournament entry. Otherwise, I’m sticking with the passing game.

Philip Rivers (FD $8,100, DK $7,100) is a lot like Stafford in that we know who he is at this point in his career. He’s going to throw for 4000 yards and 30 touchdowns, with some interceptions along the way, and he’ll win people money in fantasy football this season with his production. The Lions are tough against the pass, but if we trust that San Diego is going to find its way into the end zone two or three times in this one, we’ll go to Rivers, who led the Chargers to a big day against the Legion of Boom and the Seahawks early last season. He’s not a top option, but he was never held without a score at home last season, and started the year with three touchdown passes in each of his first three games in San Diego. That’s a small sample with arbitrary end points, but it may help you break a tie between Rivers and other similar signal callers.

So who is he throwing to? Keenan Allen (FD $7,900, DK $7,100), Malcom Floyd (FD $5,900, DK $5,300) and Steve Johnson (FD $4,700, DK $3,700) are the three players I’m taking under consideration in this one, and while they face a tough matchup against the Lions, they’re all capable of moving around the formation and finding the right matchup to get open. Allen was wildly inconsistent last year, and largely disappointing, but he figures to be the focal point of the offense with Gates and Green on the sideline. Floyd is a steady veteran who often finds his way into the end zone, but doesn’t offer much of a floor, and Johnson figures to play in three-wide sets to help account for the missing tight ends, and should see plenty of targets in short to intermediate zones and will be a good PPR play until the tight end situation improves.

The Takeaway: Avoid the running game, but feel free to grab your preferred members of the passing game in tournaments. Steve Johnson is a cheap way to get exposure to the offense, while Keenan Allen and Philip Rivers are pricey but have upside in a matchup that will scare many away.

Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tennessee Titans						Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday – 4:25 p.m.						Raymond James Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	42	19.5				-3	42	22.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	15.9	30	20	26		Offense	17.3	29	25	28
Defense	25.6	27	29	21		Defense	27.4	30	21	31
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	20	26	29	19		Tennessee Titans	19	27	17	23
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Wright	93	57	6	769		Evans	123	68	12	1051
Douglas	74	51	2	556		Jackson	142	70	2	1002
Nicks	67	38	4	405		Murphy	52	31	2	380
Walker	106	63	4	890		Seferian-Jenkins	38	21	2	221

The top two picks in the 2015 NFL Draft face each other in their professional debuts as the two worst teams in the NFL a year ago try to begin the path back to relevance with a win over a fellow bottom feeder. Vegas doesn’t see a ton of points in this one, and when the team that finished with the top draft pick is a three-point favorite in Week 1 of the following season, you know there’s some bad football about to be played.

The Quick Grind

TEN Matchup Rating: 3.0
TB Matchup Rating: 4.5

Notable injuries and suspensions: Mike Evans (TB, Questionable, Injury), David Cobb (TEN, Out, Injury)

Tennessee Titans

Last season, the Buccaneers were one of the best teams to target in daily fantasy football. Lovie Smith’s defense gave up some huge fantasy point totals, including Joe Flacco five-touchdown performance, and a handful of 100 yards and a touchdown receiving days for various wideouts. But can rookie Marcus Mariota (FD $7,100, DK $6,000) and an otherwise unspectacular cast of offensive starters for Tennessee find similar success?

The Bucs didn’t change their defense all that much this offseason, but a year spent learning Smith’s system could eventually bring out some slightly better performances, as his Bears were never as bad on defense as the 2014 Bucs. If we’re trusting this is still a bad defensive unit, we’ll probably still avoid getting exposure to this game via Mariota, and instead opt for his receivers.

Kendall Wright (FD $5,800, DK $5,100) is a bargain for a player who is clearly the leader at his position on the Tennessee roster. Justin Hunter (FD $4,700, DK $4,200) isn’t on the good side of his coaches and Harry Douglas (FD $4,600, DK $3,000) isn’t very good, so look for Wright to be featured early and often. Delanie Walker (FD $5,400, DK $3,400) will provide a safety blanket for his young quarterback, and is also in play. The Bucs have struggled to find a nickel corner to play in the slot since Lovie Smith installed his new defense, and Wright and Walker will both victimize the slot corner and safeties for Tampa Bay.

The Bucs were actually pretty good against the run last year, with Lavonte David playing at an All-Pro level at the linebacker position and Gerald McCoy doing the same on the defensive line. The Titans don’t have any running backs worth rostering, as they’ll reluctantly start Bishop Sankey (FD $6,300, DK $4,300) despite his inability to make an impact and earn regular carries as a rookie. Don’t get too cute here.

The Takeaway: The Bucs are still the same bad defense we targeted last year. Kendall Wright is your best way to get exposure to the Titans offense, and the running game should be avoided. The defense is in play if you think Jameis Winston turnover-prone ways will follow him into the NFL, but a road underdog isn’t a wise investment when picking a D/ST.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

With top defensive back Jason McCourty injured (listed as doubtful on the official injury report), it would be great to get a chance to roster a Buccaneers’ wideout for this game, and Mike Evans would be that guy… if he were healthy. But a lingering hamstring injury left him unable to practice this week, and he’s unlikely to suit up. If he does, he’s in play, but we’ll operate under the assumption that he’s out.

Jameis Winston (FD $6,900, DK $6,000) was the first overall pick in the draft, and many believe his skills and football IQ have him ready for success from day one. That will be put to the test in a great matchup this weekend against a pass defense that was pretty bad last year with McCourty on the field for over 1000 snaps. Vegas doesn’t think all that highly of the Bucs’ offense, but they are favored to win a fairly close game at home, so Winston could find his way into the end zone a couple of times. With that said, I still don’t think he’s in a good spot, especially with Evans out, and I’ll turn my attention to the ground game instead. If you want to invest in the Tampa air attack, Vincent Jackson (FD $7,200, DK $6,000) is the most likely touchdown scorer, while Louis Murphy (FD $5,000, DK $3,000) likely picks up volume in Evans’ place.

Doug Martin (FD $6,900, DK $4,500) had a solid preseason, and is reminding many folks of the explosive back we saw as a rookie in 2012. The Boise State product has been injured and stuck behind a terrible line on a terrible offense for the past two seasons, but has shown flashes of his 2012 form now and then, but has largely been unimpressive. This summer may have given Martin enough healthy time to get back into shape and in the right frame of mind, because he looked like a different player in the preseason than the one we’ve seen the past couple seasons. The Titans allowed the third-most points per game to backs last year, and Martin will get the starter’s role for the Bucs, so he’s a fine value play with Vegas and home field advantage on his side.

Update: It is looking like Evans is doing better than initially reported, and is feeling good to play this weekend. He is a core play if he suits up, but his uncertain injury status and the plethora of other top options at the position make him a tournament option, but a very good one at that, thanks to a weak Tennessee secondary. Vincent Jackson is still in play, but is a bit too expensive for a role that involves splitting work with Evans. Louis Murphy is out of consideration unless Evans’ status deteriorates again before game time.

The Takeaway: The Tampa Bay defense, often targeted as a team to stack against last year, is in play against the anemic Titans offense. On the other side of the ball, Doug Martin is an under-the-radar play at running back in a good matchup, and Mike Evans would be in play at receiver if he suited up, but otherwise, you’re probably better off looking elsewhere.

Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders

Cincinnati Bengals						Oakland Raiders
Sunday – 4:25 p.m.						O.co Coliseum
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3	44	23.5				3	44	20.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	22.1	16	21	4		Offense	15.8	31	28	32
Defense	28.3	32	19	23		Defense	18.6	11	13	16
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Oakland Raiders	22	32	6	22		Cincinnati Bengals	4	29	5	16
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Green	112	69	6	1043		Crabtree	108	68	4	702
Jones						Cooper
Sanu	98	56	6	841		Holmes	98	47	4	693
Eifert	3	3	0	37		Smith	7	7	1	42

The Bengals are yet another road favorite this weekend, traveling to Oakland to take on the Raiders. This game features a pair of teams that struggle in certain areas on defense, but don’t seem to match up with the strengths of the opposing offense. Therefore, this could be a boring, low-scoring game, or we could see one team step up and surprise by finding a way to exploit the other team’s weakness.

The Quick Grind

CIN Matchup Rating: 6.5
OAK Matchup Rating: 2.5

Notable injuries and suspensions: None

Cincinnati Bengals

Last season, the Raiders struggled to defend the pass, but were pretty good against the run (despite giving up a ton of points to opposing backs thanks to game script leading to plenty of carries against them, and seven receiving touchdowns allowed to opposing running backs, they graded out in the middle of the pack according to PFF’s grades and Football Outsiders’ DVOA). The Bengals would prefer to face an opponent that is bad against the run, so they can pound Jeremy Hill and run down the clock, and keep their quarterback’s mistakes to a minimum.

Andy Dalton (FD $7,100, DK $6,100) will instead likely have to throw in this one, and while those who come up with the gameplans for the Bengals won’t like it, it suits our fantasy purposes well. The Raiders were horrible at defending the pass as a unit, and while teams didn’t ever really need to air it out against them, they often found success when they did. Kyle Orton, Alex Smith, Shaun Hill and Ryan Fitzpatrick all had multiple touchdown throws against Oakland, and Andy Dalton is better than every one of them. (You can debate Smith, but not the others.)

Dalton is a top-10 play at the position on the weekend, as road favorites in a close matchup will often need to go to the air to keep up with their home-standing opponents. He’ll be throwing it to A.J. Green (FD $8,300, DK $7,800), who as top-tier WR1 will see the same space to work as Demaryius Thomas last season, when the Broncos’ wideout went for over 223 yards on 31 targets in two games against Oakland. Green has played 30 games at home in his career, and 30 on the road, yet he has nearly 80 more catches for nearly 1200 more yards and seven more touchdowns in enemy stadiums. He has averaged over 100 yards per game in road contests since entering the league, and a favorable matchup in Oakland isn’t likely to be the game that lowers that average. He’s a core play in all formats.

Tyler Eifert (FD $5,000, DK $3,500) is a cheap tight end with the same good matchup as Green, and Mohamed Sanu (FD $5,200, DK $3,300) will start at the other receiver position. Eifert is in play because of the scarcity at his position, but Sanu is a speculative play since the offense is going to be focused on Green and…

Jeremy Hill (FD $8,600, DK $7,100). Yes, Hill will face a run defense that was better than fantasy points allowed numbers would lead on last year, but the Bengals had a top-10 run blocking offensive line last season and return key components Andrew Whitworth and Kevin Zeitler to help pave the way for Hill. The LSU rookie was fantastic in 2014, rushing for over 1100 yards and scoring nine touchdowns while chipping in with 27 receptions. He’s a great play in cash games and tournaments. Giovani Bernard (FD $7,200, DK $4,700) is too expensive for what he offers on FanDuel, but the Raiders aforementioned struggles against backs catching the ball out of the backfield means he may have a big game as a tertiary receiving option. He’s a DraftKings tourney option.

The Takeaway: Andy Dalton is a sneaky good quarterback play, and A.J. Green is an elite receiver play. You’ll have to choose how you think the game script will go, because Jeremy Hill also sets up as a great option. I’m leaning toward Dalton and Green, because I think this game will be competitive, and Cincy will have to throw to win. Hill is the safer play for cash games, however.

Oakland Raiders

Last season, the Bengals were great against the pass but struggled to defend the run. This isn’t what we want if we think this game will follow the Vegas odds and lead to a Bengals victory, as the Raiders will have to throw into the teeth of a tough defensive unit.

However, if the Raiders keep it close enough to stick to a balanced gameplan, Latavius Murray (FD $7,400, DK $5,700) is 100% in play against a Bengal defense that struggles to stop the run and will be without top linebacker Vontaze Burfict. A.J. Hawk is not a replacement for Burfict, and will not be the help Cincy needs to stop the run. Murray got his chance toward the end of last season and followed up a four-carry, 112-yard game against Kansas City with four games of ten or more rushing attempts as he auditioned for a starting job in 2015. He didn’t overly impress, but did well enough against some very good defenses to get the top spot on the depth chart, and he’s unlikely to get passed by Roy Helu or Taiwan Jones anytime soon. He’s an explosive back who can earn a ton of points in a hurry, and is a GPP candidate this weekend.

But that’s about all you’re getting out of the Raiders, as they face a Cincinnati defense that allowed the fourth-fewest points to quarterbacks last season. Geno Atkins is a disruptive force on the defensive line, and Michael Johnson returns to the team he had success with as a defensive end a couple of years ago. The Bengal defense isn’t great, but they’re good enough to slow down the Raiders and render Derek Carr (FD $6,300, DK $6,100) and company obsolete this weekend.

The Takeaway: The Raiders are still not a great team, but they should be able to keep this one competitive. If you think they’ll hang around until the end, Murray has a chance to return on his investment with a big play or two, but otherwise, there’s not much to like here.

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