NFL Grind Down: Week 10 - Page Two
| Pittsburgh Steelers | Indianapolis Colts | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10 | 44 | 27 | 10 | 44 | 17 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 20.9 | 20 | 10 | 17 | Offense | 18.0 | 25 | 20 | 20 | |
| Opp. Defense | 28.9 | 32 | 31 | 17 | Opp. Defense | 16.4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 23 | 30 | 26 | 20 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 3 | 18 | 2 | 7 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Brown | 94 | 57 | 3 | 835 | Hilton | 65 | 34 | 3 | 702 | |
| Smith-Schuster | 36 | 24 | 4 | 424 | Moncrief | 35 | 19 | 1 | 278 | |
| Bryant | 36 | 18 | 1 | 234 | Aiken | 38 | 14 | 0 | 131 | |
| James | 28 | 20 | 2 | 193 | Doyle | 64 | 50 | 2 | 441 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: T.Y. Hilton (IND WR) – Questionable (Groin)
PIT Matchup Rating: 8.0
IND Matchup Rating: 2.5
Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterback: This is a very enticing matchup for the Steelers, and while we generally don’t like playing Ben Roethlisberger on the road, the Colts simply offer next to nothing in the way of defensive resistance. and they just released their most talented defensive back in Vontae Davis (he reportedly needs season-ending surgery anyway. This doesn’t bode well for a pass defense that has already been terrible, to the tune of allowing 280 passing yards per game. Roethlsiberger is nowhere near the quarterback he once was and often struggles on the road, but he should be able to post a solid game in such a favorable matchup.
Running Back: In a game that projects to have a very positive game script for the Steelers, it would be foolish to completely ignore Le’Veon Bell. In Pittsburgh’s six wins this year, he is averaging around 27 carries and 109 yards per game. In Pittsburgh’s two losses, he is averaging 15 carries for 54 yards per game. That math is pretty simple. Even though the Colts haven’t been a complete sieve against the run this year, Bell has perhaps the safest floor in all of fantasy football this week, especially since the Steelers are coming off a bye. He’s a lock and load in cash games and is in play for all formats.
Pass Catchers: The first bit of news to clear up is that it sounds like Martavis Bryant will play this week. However, he is basically a fantasy afterthought at this point and appears to be getting lapped by Juju Smith-Schuster on the depth chart. Juju is coming off a massive performance against the Lions heading into the bye week, and he is a solid mid-range option for fantasy purposes. However, this feels like the epitome of an Antonio Brown game. The Colts have nobody capable of covering perhaps the best wide receiver in the league, and there is plenty of value at the other positions where you can easily fit Brown into a lineup. It’s no surprise that he struggled two weeks ago against an underrated cover corner in Darius Slay, and he should be ready to rock coming out of the bye week. Fire up Brown as an elite play in all formats. He’s my favorite wide receiver of the week.
The Takeaway: The big name players on the Steelers are all in play this week in a favorable matchup. Le’Veon Bell is an extremely safe play, while Antonio Brown checks in as my favorite GPP play of the week. Ben Roethlisberger and Juju Smith-Schuster can also be considered against a weak pass defense. Regardless of your game format, it would be wise to get at least one Pittsburgh player on your rosters in this friendly spot.
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback: Although I warmed up to him a little bit as a value quarterback option last week as we got closer to the weekend, that will not be the case this week. Jacoby Brissett carries too much risk as a below average NFL quarterback that will have to up against a solid Steelers defense. If you want to go cheap at quarterback, there are better options later in the article. Pass.
Running Back: Frank Gore and Marlon Mack are essentially splitting time at this point, which limits the potential for both players. Gore played on 60% of the snaps last week to Mack’s 40%, but the time share could easily pivot the other way this week, especially if the Colts fall behind. This isn’t a great matchup against a Steelers team that ranks inside the top ten in DVOA against both the run and the pass, so you can safely pass on this duo in Week 10.
Pass Catchers: The only spot that is interesting for the Colts is with their pass catchers. T.Y. Hilton always carries upside and broke out with a 175 yard, two touchdown performance last week. Jack Doyle has a whopping 20 catches on 23 targets over the last two weeks. Those two players log a large target share for the Colts, and therefore they are decent fantasy options despite the overall inconsistencies of the offense as a whole. Neither qualifies as a must play option in a difficult game, especially since Hilton’s price has risen after last week’s performance (especially on DK). Hilton and Doyle are reasonable GPP plays, but they don’t make my ideal build this week if only making one lineup.
The Takeaway: There isn’t a whole lot to get excited about with this team. The best options rely in the pass catching group, where T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle will continue to dominate the targets. Hilton is coming off his best game of the year, while Doyle has 20 catches over the last two games. Neither are must play options in a difficult matchup, but the game script should lead to a lot of passing attempts. The running game is off limits with a time share in place, and I’m not taking the risk with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback.
| Los Angeles Chargers | Jacksonville Jaguars | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 41 | 18.5 | -4 | 41 | 22.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.8 | 22 | 13 | 25 | Offense | 25.8 | 8 | 29 | 1 | |
| Opp. Defense | 14.6 | 1 | 1 | 27 | Opp. Defense | 19.0 | 7 | 8 | 31 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 1 | 11 | 1 | 18 | Los Angeles Chargers | 8 | 25 | 18 | 2 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Allen | 73 | 40 | 1 | 548 | Lee | 58 | 32 | 1 | 438 | |
| Williams | 36 | 22 | 1 | 322 | Hurns | 42 | 29 | 2 | 376 | |
| Benjamin | 34 | 19 | 3 | 304 | Westbrook | |||||
| Henry | 32 | 23 | 2 | 312 | Lewis | 26 | 10 | 4 | 154 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Marqise Lee (JAX WR) – Questionable (Knee)
LAC Matchup Rating: 2.5
JAX Matchup Rating: 5.5
Los Angeles Chargers
Quarterback: In case you need a refresher, we don’t like to pick on the Jacksonville secondary. They are allowing an NFL-low 156 passing yards per game and have only allowed four passing touchdowns as a team. There’s no need to get cute with Philip Rivers on the road against this defense. Move along.
Running Back: There are mixed opinions out there about how easy it is to run on the Jaguars defense, and that largely stems from the fact that teams HAVE to run on them because you can’t pass on them. However, the statistics do back up the ability to run the ball against the Jaguars, as they are allowing a hefty 4.9 yards per carry on the season, which ranks ahead of only the Patriots. Their yards per game allowed ranks ahead of just three teams. As such, the Chargers should feature Melvin Gordon heavily in the game plan this week. They are coming off a bye week, which should have allowed Gordon to heal from his minor ailments that had been plaguing him. Gordon is not my favorite running back option of the week, but he is certainly in play if you buy into the struggles of Jacksonville’s rush defense.
Pass Catchers: This is a recording. We don’t like to pick on the Jacksonville secondary. However, DraftKings is trying to tempt you with a dirt cheap price tag on Keenan Allen. He will likely avoid the toughest coverage of Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye for a decent chunk of the game, assuming the Chargers allow him to run a high percentage of his routes out of the slot. That would make sense, but we can’t always count on NFL teams to do what fantasy players think is sensible. Perhaps Hunter Henry will be the biggest beneficiary, though the Jaguars rank a respectable 10th in DVOA against the tight end position this year. Outside of those two, there is no reason to consider the risky options like Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin on the outside.
The Takeaway: There is not a must play in the group, as the Chargers carry a meager 18 point implied team total into this game. It’s very difficult to pass against the Jaguars, but Keenan Allen is an interesting risk/reward flier at his cheap price on DraftKings. Hunter Henry also carries some upside at the tight end position. The safest play from the team is definitely Melvin Gordon, and the bye week should have him refreshed and ready to go after he battled and played through injury for much of October.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback: We are in Week 10 and the Jaguars are 5-3, but those results have almost entirely been attributable to their shut down defense and the emergence of Leonard Fournette. Blake Bortles has a total of one multi-touchdown game this season, and that came in London against a Ravens team that didn’t show up for the game. While he has been better yardage-wise in the last two games, both of those were without Leonard Fournette. Don’t get excited here. Bortles is not a DFS option in any format.
Running Back: Leonard Fournette hasn’t played in quite some time thanks to an injury that made him miss one game, a bye week, and a coach-imposed suspension last week. Chris Ivory has been ineffective in his stead, and it sounds like Fournette has the all clear to return this week. He should immediately return to a workhorse role, and don’t forget about him just because he has not played in a while This is a guy who was showing monster fantasy upside on a weekly basis, and of course the Jaguars want to keep the ball on the ground as much as they can. Fournette is in the conversation as a high-end running back option this week, especially if you need a pivot because you were considering Ezekiel Elliott (assuming Elliott doesn’t miraculously get reinstated again).
Pass Catchers: There’s not much to get comfortable with here, obviously, given the limitations of the quarterback play. Marqise Lee is leading the team with 55 receiving yards per game, and no wide receiver has more than two touchdown catches. Marcedes Lewis has four at the tight end position, but three of those came in the aforementioned game against the Ravens. There is more risk than reward with this entire pass catching group.
The Takeaway: When he is healthy and active, Leonard Fournette is the guy to roster here, and that won’t change this week. The Jaguars are four point home favorites and will likely look to limit the passing attempts for Blake Bortles as much as possible. Ride with Fournette or the Jacksonville defense in this game.
| New York Jets | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 41.5 | 22 | 2.5 | 41.5 | 19.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 21.2 | 18 | 23 | 18 | Offense | 19.8 | 21 | 3 | 28 | |
| Opp. Defense | 24.8 | 25 | 30 | 22 | Opp. Defense | 23.0 | 18 | 18 | 24 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 26 | 29 | 31 | 6 | New York Jets | 25 | 16 | 24 | 26 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Anderson | 57 | 31 | 4 | 483 | Jackson | 55 | 27 | 2 | 422 | |
| Kearse | 47 | 31 | 4 | 380 | Humphries | 43 | 31 | 0 | 311 | |
| Hansen | Godwin | 12 | 8 | 0 | 83 | |||||
| Seferian-Jenkins | 41 | 33 | 3 | 221 | Brate | 48 | 32 | 4 | 414 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Matt Forte (NYJ RB) – Out (Knee) / Jameis Winston (TB QB) – Out (Shoulder)
NYJ Matchup Rating: 6.0
TB Matchup Rating: 6.0
New York Jets
Quarterback: This game is a Week 10 wildcard that could actually see a lot of fantasy production, and that production could come via some cheaper players. The once “guaranteed to go 0-16” Jets continue to play a respectable brand of football, as they currently sit at 4-5 and have played some solid teams close. Josh McCown looks like one of the bigger surprises of the year, and he has a good matchup here against a Tampa Bay defense that is a mess in the secondary. They rank second to last in the league in DVOA against the pass, and there are worse decisions than McCown that can be made when putting a roster together this week.
Running Back: Matt Forte did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday due to swelling in his knee, so I am handling this analysis as though he is not going to play. In the first game that Forte missed this year, Bilal Powell went absolutely nuts against the Jaguars, though a lot of his production was on one fluky play. The following week against the Browns, Powell was also banged up. I would expect Powell to handle the majority of the work this week, though he was actually out-snapped by Elijah McGuire last week with both guys healthy. Both guys are very cheap and worth a look as values if Forte is sidelined, with Powell being particularly appealing on DraftKings at $4,000. McGuire is the better per-dollar value on FanDuel and FantasyDraft if you think the snap counts will be close to even. Keep in mind that plenty of risk exists with both players. I will add an update on Saturday if we get any clarity.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Forte is officially out. The analysis above holds.
Pass Catchers: Robby Anderson has now scored in three straight games, so the momentum continues to build. I have no issues using him as a low to mid-range option against a porous pass defense. He’s definitely the #1 wide receiver on this team at the moment. Jermaine Kearse was the only other wide receiver to catch a pass last week, and he caught just two passes for the game. Tampa Bay has been average against the tight end position, so I don’t have strong feelings one way or the other on Austin Seferian-Jenkins this week.
The Takeaway: This game has some sneaky fantasy potential. Keep an eye on the status of Matt Forte. If he is out, bump up Bilal Powell and Elijah McGuire as potential low cost options, especially in tournament formats. In the passing game, I have no issues targeting Josh McCown and/or Robby Anderson against a bad pass defense. Austin Seferian-Jenkins is a decent, if unspectacular, option at the tight end position.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback: In a move that was apparently long overdue, the Buccaneers are finally going to sit Jameis Winston down and let him rest his ailing shoulder. Enter Ryan Fitzpatrick. Enter former Jet Ryan Fizpatrick. Revenge game! For a multitude of reasons, I really like Fitzpatrick as a cheap QB dart in tournament formats this week. The revenge angle, of course, is the first, but this also lines up as a good matchup against an unimpressive pass defense. In addition, you can pair Fitzpatrick up with a cheap wide receiver and get access to upside for a very reasonable salary cost (more on that in a minute). There’s plenty of momentum behind this pick in Week 10.
Running Back: Abandon ship! The Doug Martin ferry boat is leaking water in a hurry right now, and his snap count plummeted to just 30% last week against the Saints. Part of that was because the team fell way behind, but it’s difficult to trust him at this point. There are quite a few solid running back options this week, and I would much rather get my value plays with the passing game for Tampa Bay. It’s difficult to make anything resembling a compelling case for a Tampa Bay running back for DFS purposes.
Pass Catchers: The reason why you can get a cheap wide receiver to pair with Fitzpatrick is because Mike Evans has had his one game suspension upheld by the NFL, and it doesn’t seem like he will be able to appeal it 612 times like Ezekiel Elliott has done. That’s not fair! Obviously, with Evans sidelined for this game, there are going to be a lot of targets to go around. DeSean Jackson will have more opportunities to make a big play, and Adam Humphries will check in as an every down player. Humphries is basically minimum salary everywhere you look and will undoubtedly be a top value play. I will have heavy exposure to both players, and you can also consider Cameron Brate as a solid tight end play, though the Jets do rank 5th in DVOA against the tight end position. I prefer the two wideouts.
The Takeaway: A good chunk of my lineups will have DeSean Jackson and/or Adam Humphries this week, and you can even stack them up with Ryan Fitzpatrick in GPP formats. The cheap salaries on all three players are very enticing. Doug Martin is not a fantasy option at this point with his underwhelming snap count totals of late. Stick to the value in the passing game here.
| Cincinnati Bengals | Tennessee Titans | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | 40.5 | 18 | -4.5 | 40.5 | 22.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 16.1 | 28 | 26 | 32 | Offense | 22.6 | 11 | 27 | 10 | |
| Opp. Defense | 24.1 | 23 | 16 | 10 | Opp. Defense | 19.8 | 11 | 5 | 20 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Tennessee Titans | 20 | 13 | 21 | 15 | Cincinnati Bengals | 11 | 12 | 7 | 19 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Green | 67 | 39 | 4 | 578 | Matthews | 55 | 31 | 2 | 463 | |
| LaFell | 39 | 25 | 1 | 208 | Decker | 41 | 26 | 1 | 247 | |
| Ross | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Davis | 18 | 9 | 0 | 101 | |
| Kroft | 29 | 25 | 3 | 287 | Walker | 54 | 37 | 0 | 395 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Jeremy Hill (CIN RB) – Out (Ankle) / Delanie Walker (TEN TE) – Questionable (Ankle)
CIN Matchup Rating: 4.0
TEN Matchup Rating: 6.5
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback: Over his last three games, Andy Dalton is averaging 15 completions and 173 passing yards per game. While a couple of those were very difficult matchups, it doesn’t hide the fact that this has been a very poor season for the Cincinnati signal-caller. Tennessee has struggled in pass coverage at times this year, but they have been improved over the last few weeks. If I am looking for a value quarterback, I’d rather take McCown or Fitzpatrick in the previous game. The Bengals have an implied team total of just 18 points in this game. Pass on using Dalton in DFS this week.
Running Back: Slowly but surely, this is becoming a backfield that belongs to Joe Mixon. Jeremy Hill was a healthy scratch last week, and Mixon’s snap counts have risen from 43% to 63% to 72% over the last three games. The production hasn’t been all that great, but his talent should allow him to produce if he continues to get this kind of work. He’s a risk/reward GPP option again this week, and I want to say that I am comfortable rolling him out in cash games, but it’s hard to get there. If the matchup was a little better, I would feel better about that, but we have to play the cards we are dealt. Tennessee has allowed just three rushing touchdowns all year, and Mixon has averaged just over two yards per carry in the last two games. I expect more this week, but that doesn’t eliminate the risk.
Pass Catchers: As usual, this group is all about A.J. Green. He got ejected last week and missed the second half, and it seems inconsistent to me that the league suspended Mike Evans but not Green after both got involved in altercations a week ago. I expect a motivated performance out of Green here, and even though I will be avoiding Dalton at quarterback, Green is still a reasonable play. Tennessee doesn’t have any shut down corners on their team, and Green could very well be the highest scoring wide receiver on the slate. It’s hard for me to elevate him over the likes of Antonio Brown, but I wouldn’t talk anyone out of rostering Green in any format.
The Takeaway: Even though the Titans aren’t the greatest defense, this isn’t the best offense to target in a road game where they only have an implied team total of 18 points. In fact, you can certainly make a case for the Titans defense as a DFS option. If you want to play anyone from the Bengals, A.J. Green and Joe Mixon are the best options, though Mixon carries some risk given his struggle to run the ball over the last two weeks despite increased snap counts.
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback: It has been a rocky season for Marcus Mariota, but perhaps he is ready to turn the corner and get things rolling. On Monday, coach Mike Mularkey was quoted as saying that he wants to implement more designed runs for Mariota. This is great news for the quarterback’s fantasy value, and it is also a signal that Mariota is getting close to full health again. He hasn’t been putting up huge numbers lately, but this might be a good spot to buy low before a second half surge. The Bengals aren’t necessarily a great matchup, but Mariota has the talent to produce against any team when he is healthy. He’s not a cash game option, but fire him up as a very interesting tournament play here.
Running Back: Though he has been banged up all year, the Titans continue to roll DeMarco Murray out there on a weekly basis. He saw just nine carries last week but still played on a large share of the snaps. This will continue to a mess every week, and it feels like a Murray absence is inevitable at some point. For this week, though, he appears to be practicing in full. When the inevitable injury happens, the time to load up on the talented Derrick Henry will arrive. Until then, this is going to be a tough spot to peg. You can consider either back as a risk/reward GPP option, but this is by no means a spot that you need to attack.
Pass Catchers: Speaking of injuries, this unit has been all sorts of banged up in 2017. Delanie Walker is seemingly walking and running on one leg every week. Eric Decker seems to be ill this week. The beat goes on. I do like Mariota a good bit this week, so the love should theoretically translate to the pass catchers, but I think you can play Mariota on his own, even in GPP formats. Perhaps the sneaky play is Corey Davis, the talented rookie out of Western Michigan who returned from injury and played on 75% of the snaps last week. He should be a nearly every down player going forward as the most talented wide receiver on the team, and big games are coming. He earns the nod from this group for me, though it is largely by default at this point.
The Takeaway: The running game is difficult to trust as long as DeMarco Murray continues to get rolled out there at less than 100% health. His presence makes both running backs extremely volatile options. I like the buy low window on Marcus Mariota, and it sounds like he might look to run it more this week. That enhances his upside. Even in GPPs, you don’t have to pair him with a pass catcher, though Corey Davis is a solid upside pairing who should have a large role moving forward.
