RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down: Week 14

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2016-12-12 05:58:38

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.

Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

INJURIES – I will update all notable injuries/suspensions on Saturday morning after we have final injury reports

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs

Oakland Raiders						Kansas City Chiefs
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	46	21.5				-3	46	24.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	28.8	3	5	7		Offense	23.4	15	22	26
Opp. Defense	20.2	9	24	27		Opp. Defense	24.9	22	22	29
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Kansas City Chiefs	26	13	32	3		Oakland Raiders	21	27	16	19
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Cooper	104	68	4	981		Maclin	56	30	2	376
Crabtree	112	67	7	785		Conley	55	34	0	380
Roberts	59	31	5	332		Hill	62	50	5	481
Walford	41	27	2	288		Kelce	90	65	3	815

Notable injuries and suspensions: None

OAK Matchup Rating: 5.5
KC Matchup Rating: 6.5

Oakland Raiders

Quarterbacks: The Raiders just keep on chugging along. Despite coming out flat last week against the Bills, Oakland turned on the jets and scored 29 points in the second half. Derek Carr is having a great season, and he got the job done last week despite not being as efficient as usual and completing just 54% of his passes. Kansas City is a very tough place to play a road game, especially since this is a huge game for both teams. It’s also a short week for both teams, and I don’t love Carr here. Kansas City has been more vulnerable against the pass of late, so that at least gives Carr a glimmer of hope. You can’t play him at $8,000 on FanDuel, but you could consider him at a reasonable $6,400 price tag on DraftKings.

Running Backs: After being a mess for much of the season, Oakland has finally given us some predictability with their backfield situation. Latavius Murray has played on 66% and 70% of the snaps over the last two games, and he has three touchdowns in those games. He is going to be touchdown dependent, as he has never been a massive yardage guy. In fact, his 82 rushing yard total last week was his second highest total of the season. They might limit his snaps a bit with this being a short week, and there are plenty of better options out there in Week 14.

Pass Catchers: Now, what is going on here? Amari Cooper is supposed to be the target and yardage guy! Michael Crabtree is supposed to be the touchdown guy! That’s how it works! Of course, the Raiders love to keep us guessing. Crabtree put up a team-leading seven catches on 11 targets last week, while Cooper caught just two passes on four targets. Both of them managed to find the end zone, salvaging a decent fantasy day for both. Cooper is easily the guy I want this week, though. Kansas City’s top cornerback (Marcus Peters) doesn’t shadow opposing #1 receivers, and Cooper is sure to avoid his coverage plenty in this one. In addition, Cooper had a huge day in the first meeting this year between these teams (ten catches for 129 yards), while Crabtree was held to two catches for ten yards. Spend the extra salary to get Cooper.

The Takeaway: Oakland’s offense has been rolling of late, but this game will present more of a challenge. They are on the road, on a short week, after four consecutive home games. They scored just ten points the first time these two teams met. Amari Cooper was the only solid performer in the first meeting, and he is my favorite pick of the group. You can consider Derek Carr as a cheap QB option on DK, but he is overpriced on FD. Latavius Murray and Michael Crabtree are off my radar.

Kansas City Chiefs

Quarterbacks: Alex Smith has just four touchdown passes in his last five games, and the Chiefs continue to win football games. He might have a “great” fantasy performance once a year, but attempting to peg that week is a fleeting endeavor. He attempted just 22 passes in the first meeting between these two teams and didn’t have a touchdown pass in the game. Don’t bother with Smith, even against a beatable Oakland defense.

Running Backs: Last week, Spencer Ware struggled on a per-touch basis but salvaged his fantasy day with two touchdowns. In the previous two weeks, he was good on a per-touch basis but couldn’t find the end zone. One of these weeks, he is going to put it all together. This could very well be that week, as Oakland ranks just 28th in DVOA against the run. Ware had 24 carries for 131 yards in the first meeting, and he is my favorite play on the dollar from this Thursday game.

Pass Catchers: The viability of the pass catchers, as has been the case the last few weeks, depends upon the availability of Jeremy Maclin. If he sits out another game, the Chiefs have no reliable pass catchers outside of Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. Kelce is coming off a 140 yard game against the Falcons, while Hill is a threat to take any touch to the house. The problem with Hill is that Andy Reid refuses to give him a full-time role. He played on just 51% of the offensive snaps last week, and he is totally out of play if Maclin is active and starts. Kelce is on my radar, but that’s about it.

The Takeaway: Don’t play Alex Smith. Spencer Ware is one of the best per-dollar plays at running back this week, so he is definitely an option you can consider on full slates. The pass catchers get a downgrade if Jeremy Maclin returns, and right now that is looking to be likely. That takes Tyreek Hill out of consideration for me, while you can maybe still consider Kelce at tight end.

Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans

Denver Broncos						Tennessee Titans
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		**	**	**				**	**	**
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	23.8	13	26	23		Offense	25.7	8	19	3
Opp. Defense	24.7	21	29	7		Opp. Defense	19.1	6	2	28
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Tennessee Titans	28	6	31	18		Denver Broncos	1	23	1	10
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Sanders	114	64	4	858		Matthews	73	48	7	669
Thomas	103	66	5	799		Sharpe	68	36	2	464
Fowler	18	9	2	135		Wright	37	25	3	376
Green	29	18	0	211		Walker	72	49	6	657

Notable injuries and suspensions: Trevor Siemian (DEN QB) – Questionable (Foot)

DEN Matchup Rating: 4.5
TEN Matchup Rating: 4.5

Denver Broncos

Quarterbacks: The Broncos are hoping that Trevor Siemian will be ready to go this week, and they will likely need him if they want to win on the road against a Titans team that also needs this game badly. Siemian is not a standout fantasy option, but he does give the team a better chance to win right now than Paxton Lynch. Lynch completed just 12 of 24 passes in last week’s win and only threw for 104 yards. Regardless of who starts this game, you don’t need to bother with either one in your DFS contests.

Running Backs: Devontae Booker saw his snap count rise last week as the Broncos used a run-heavy approach with Lynch at quarterback. It didn’t really result in increased production, as Booker ran for just 1.9 yards per carry on 18 carries in the game. He salvaged his day with a touchdown, but he was once again outplayed by Kapri Bibbs who tallied 49 yards on just five carries. This was likely heading for a role change, but Bibbs suffered a season-ending ankle injury in the game. The starting gig is clearly Booker’s, but the production just hasn’t been there. Tennessee is more effective defensively against the run than the pass, so I will avoid Booker here. The nail in the coffin is that news came out Wednesday that Booker is likely to split work with newly-signed Justin Forsett in this game.

Pass Catchers: This depends on the status of the quarterback situation. There is no way I will touch any Denver pass catcher if Lynch is under center. If Siemian is manning the helm, you can give a bump up to Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas. Sanders has been the better performer of late, and he also comes at a bit of a discount from Thomas (especially on FanDuel). Keep an eye on the quarterback situation and adjust accordingly.

The Takeaway: Devontae Booker has struggled in several good matchups of late, so it’s hard to trust him despite the season-ending injury to Bibbs. I have no interest in either of the possible quarterbacks, but the receivers are only in play if Siemian starts. Denver has a pretty low team total of just 21 points in this game, so there’s no need to target players heavily. Emmanuel Sanders is my favorite option when you take price into account, but that only applies if Siemian starts at quarterback.

Tennessee Titans

Quarterbacks: Marcus Mariota is growing as a quarterback this year, and he has had a fine season as the Titans chase a playoff spot in the watered-down AFC North. This matchup, however, is a different animal. Denver leads the NFL In DVOA against the pass, and they dominated Blake Bortles and company last week, as Bortles was held below 200 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions. Obviously, Mariota is a better quarterback than Bortles is, but it’s really hard for me to consider any quarterback against this Denver pass defense. DraftKings is dangling a cheap carrot in front of you at $6,200, but I think I’ll have to pass.

Running Backs: Where you can attack Denver is on the ground. The Jaguars, with below-average talents T.J. Yeldon and Denard Robinson getting much of the work, ran for 154 yards on this team a week ago. DeMarco Murray trails only Ezekiel Elliott in rushing yards this season, and he has stayed healthy all year. It has really been a bounce-back year for him, and Denver ranks just 26th in DVOA against the run. You can bet that Murray will be heavily involved in this week’s game plan, and he should get 20+ touches if this game stays close. I expect most people to avoid him thinking this is a bad matchup, but Murray is certainly in play on the top end of running backs.

Pass Catchers: This is an easy pass. Tennessee has a below average wide receiver corps, and they will likely struggle against Denver’s solid secondary. Don’t chase the recent surge from Rishard Matthews this week, and there are better mid to high-end tight ends than Delanie Walker given this matchup. Find your passing game targets elsewhere.

The Takeaway: This should be one of the lower scoring games of the week, and I likely won’t have any exposure to Tennessee’s passing game. DeMarco Murray has the best matchup of all the skill position players, and he is definitely a viable high-end running back. In GPPs, his ownership will likely be lower than it should be, which Is a nice bonus, too.

Minnesota Vikings at Jacksonville Jaguars

Minnesota Vikings						Jacksonville Jaguars
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3.5	39.5	21.5				3.5	39.5	18
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	19.4	26	24	32		Offense	18.7	27	23	22
Opp. Defense	26.1	26	1	24		Opp. Defense	17.4	4	4	17
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Jacksonville Jaguars	8	16	6	5		Minnesota Vikings	3	7	2	14
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Diggs	96	75	2	806		Robinson	115	56	6	622
Thielen	70	52	3	657		Hurns	76	35	3	477
Patterson	52	41	2	334		Lee	78	49	2	615
Rudolph	90	54	5	513		Thomas	51	30	4	281

Notable injuries and suspensions: Allen Hurns (JAX WR) – Out (Hamstring) / Denard Robinson (JAX RB) – Out (Ankle) / Chris Ivory (JAX RB) – Questionable (Hamstring)

MIN Matchup Rating: 4.5
JAX Matchup Rating: 2.0

Minnesota Vikings

Quarterbacks: Jacksonville has been much improved against the pass this season, and they held Paxton Lynch to 104 passing yards last week. Don’t even bother with Sam Bradford and his league-worst average depth of target in this matchup. With every team in action this week, we can be a little more picky with our selections. That certainly keeps a guy Bradford out of play.

Running Backs: The mediocre beat goes on with the Minnesota running game. Jerick McKinnon generally plays on about 65% of the offensive snaps, while Matt Asiata handles the other 35% along wih the goal line duties. In addition, the Vikings rank dead last in the league with just 72 team rushing yards per game. A time share plus limited overall production makes this a spot to avoid, even though the matchup isn’t bad.

Pass Catchers: Stefon Diggs returned from a one week absence last Thursday, and he should be good to go in this one with the team finally on a longer week of rest. He didn’t show much rust in his return, catching all eight of his targets in last week’s close loss to the Cowboys. Adam Thielen has the other starting receiver spot on lock down right now, and he played on 85% of the team’s offensive snaps a week ago. There is only a $600 difference between Diggs and Thielen on FanDuel, so Diggs is the preferred play there. On DraftKings, however, the price differential of $1,800 between the two makes Thielen more interesting. Kyle Rudolph did see 12 targets last week, but his production has been hit or miss, and there are better value options at tight end.

The Takeaway: Don’t get too excited with the Vikings. Both Sam Bradford and the running game offer limited upside. The best targets appear to be Stefon Diggs (especially on FD) and Adam Thielen (especially on DK), but even those are mild endorsements against an improving Jacksonville defense.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Quarterbacks: If there’s a game that you could just throw out this week without massively irritating anyone, this Vikings/Jaguars game is probably the one. It features a low 39 point Vegas total for both teams combined, which is one of the lowest totals of the season for any game. Blake Bortles continues to struggle to put everything together at the NFL level, and he has more pick-sixes (11) than wins (10) in his career after throwing another pick six a week ago. Needless to say, you don’t want to consider Bortles against Minnesota, who ranks 2nd in the league in DVOA against the pass.

Running Backs: Have I mentioned that this game is ugly? Jacksonville has actually been running the ball a bit better of late, but they still rank only 22nd in the NFL in team rushing yards per game. Denard Robinson got an increased workload last week but left early with a high ankle sprain. Chris Ivory didn’t play in that one thanks to a hamstring injury. T.J. Yeldon has been battling an ankle injury of his own. We have no idea who is going to play for the Jaguars in this one. I will provide an update as we get closer to Sunday, but you’re probably just as well off if you ignore it.

SATURDAY UPDATE – Robinson is out. Ivory is likely to be limited. Yeldon will get most of the work, but his upside is limited. With the lack of value on this slate, Yeldon is in play as a risky cheap punt option.

Pass Catchers: The efficiency is a problem with Bortles at quarterback. Allen Hurns is hurt. As mentioned above, Minnesota has a very good pass defense. As was the case last week against Denver’s top ranked pass defense, we can leave the Jaguars receivers alone. Allen Robinson caught just three of ten targets against the Broncos, putting up a meager 31 yards in the process. Marqise Lee caught just three of eight targets for 34 yards. This is a spot to avoid.

The Takeaway: Jacksonville is projected for just 18 points in this game, and, quite frankly, I’m not considering anyone from this side outside of the opposing Minnesota defense. Given Blake Bortles turnover issues and pick-six tendencies, there is obviously a chance for a defensive score with the Vikings.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills

Pittsburgh Steelers						Buffalo Bills
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		-1	46.5	23.75				1	46.5	22.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	24.2	12	10	18		Offense	25.4	9	32	1
Opp. Defense	22.8	17	10	26		Opp. Defense	19.7	7	19	6
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Buffalo Bills	13	18	13	12		Pittsburgh Steelers	7	25	5	17
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Brown	127	88	11	1,052		Watkins	23	12	0	181
Heyward-Bey	15	5	2	68		Woods	60	42	1	493
Coates	45	20	2	425		Goodwin	52	24	3	364
Green	20	11	1	207		Clay	57	36	0	323

Notable injuries and suspensions: Sammy Watkins (BUF WR) – Questionable (Foot) / Robert Woods (BUF WR) – Questionable (Knee)

PIT Matchup Rating: 7.0
BUF Matchup Rating: 6.0

Pittsburgh Steelers

SATURDAY UPDATE – Keep an eye on the weather for this game, as we might have to bump down offensive projections slightly for this one.

Quarterbacks: This is a huge game in the AFC playoff race, with the Steelers tied with the Ravens for first place in the AFC North at 7-5. The Bills are clinging to Wild Card hopes at 6-6, and those hopes will likely be fully dashed if they lose this game. This may not seem like a good matchup for the Steelers at first glance, but Buffalo’s defense has been trending in the wrong direction. They rank 21st in DVOA against the pass, and they allowed the Raiders to score 29 second half points a week ago. If there’s anyone that knows about showing up for big games in December and January, it’s Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers are clicking on offense right now, and it helps when you have an elite WR1 and an elite pass-catching running back to use as a safety valve, to go along with other weapons. Ben is a top five fantasy quarterback this week.

Running Backs: Picking between LeVeon Bell and David Johnson almost feels like splitting hairs at this point, but Johnson has the slight edge at the moment. His production and touchdowns have been more reliable than Bell’s. That said, it’s not like Bell has been throwing up duds in recent weeks. He logged 29 carries for 118 yards last week while adding six for 64 through the air. That’s a 24.2 fantasy point performance in full PPR scoring despite not finding the end zone. That’s pretty good, but when Johnson is consistently putting up games in the mid to high 30’s, it’s still a step below. The question becomes whether the discount is enough, as Bell is $700 cheaper on FanDuel and $800 cheaper on DraftKings (compared to Johnson). In a week that doesn’t provide a ton of reliable value on the surface — at least early in the week — Bell might end up being the better buy.

Pass Catchers: The one thing that the Bills have done well of late has been containing opposing #1 wide receivers. Amari Cooper had just two catches last week, though he did score on one of them. The week prior, Allen Robinson had just two catches for 24 yards. Before that, A.J. Green got hurt early in the game, and Doug Baldwin had a pedestrian six catches for 89 yards. This does concern me somewhat with Antonio Brown, but a lot of this probably has to do with sample size. Of course, the one “weapon” that I didn’t mention above is new secret weapon Ladarius Green. Mike Tomlin promised to get him more involved in the offense going forward, and boy did Green deliver against the Giants with a 6/110/1 line. Green reminds me a lot of Jimmy Graham, who just happened to go off for 8/103/2 against these Bills about a month ago. Green is still a nice value at $3,900 on DraftKings, though you have to think a little more with his price at $5,800 on FanDuel. With Brown and Bell soaking up a lot of the other targets, none of the other wide receivers are in play

The Takeaway: The good thing about targeting players on this team is that we generally know where the production will come from. Ben Roethlisberger is a solid play at quarterback. Le’Veon Bell is a step behind David Johnson for the top overall running back spot, but he comes at a slight discount from Johnson this week. Antonio Brown is my least favorite “stud” from the team this week, but that doesn’t mean he is out of play. Ladarius Green has a real chance to be a top five tight end the rest of the way, and he is not priced like it yet. This is likely your last chance to get him at any sort of a discount.

Buffalo Bills

Quarterbacks: The line that Tyrod Taylor put up last week has become all too common for him: just over 50% completion rate, 191 passing yards, no passing touchdowns, one interception, 30 rushing yards, and a rushing touchdown. That’s not going to win you any large GPPs. The question I always like to ask is: “When is the last time you have regretted passing on Tyrod Taylor There’s not a lot of cases where you can find examples of that. Pittsburgh’s defense has been playing better in recent weeks, and there are definitely other value quarterbacks that rate higher than Taylor does here.

Running Backs: LeSean McCoy takes a back seat to the other top-tier running backs in the league, but he actually leads the NFL in yards per carry at 5.5. He even chipped in with seven catches against the Raiders, though the Bills were playing from behind for much of that game. With all the other high dollar running backs out there like Johnson, Bell, and Murray, McCoy checks in with a 6-9% ownership rate almost every week. While I don’t think the Bills will win this game, I do think it will be a close one throughout. McCoy is a great GPP option this week, though at his price I prefer other options in cash games. Of course, if you need the discount from Johnson or Bell, it’s not like McCoy is a poor cash game option himself.

Pass Catchers: I give Tyrod Taylor a lot of grief, but the truth is that not a lot of quarterbacks would succeed with his group of wide receivers. A quartet that includes a banged up Sammy Watkins, Marquise Goodwin, Justin Hunter, and Brandon Tate isn’t exactly going to inject fear into opposing defenses. It’s definitely bad when a team has to “hope” for Robert Woods to return. Charles Clay has done nothing at tight end. If Watkins gets cleared for a full complement of snaps, he can perhaps be considered as a sub-5% owned GPP play. Outside of that, there’s nothing to love here.

The Takeaway: The Bills will likely ride their running game in this home matchup, and LeSean McCoy is always intriguing for GPPs since he usually gets overlooked by many DFS players. The passing game is far too unreliable to target, as the Bills have battled numerous injuries to their receivers all year. As usual, it’s McCoy or nothing from this squad in a must win game.

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