NFL Grind Down: Week 14 - Page Four

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos

Oakland Raiders Denver Broncos
Raiders Broncos
Sunday – 4:05 p.m. Mile High Stadium
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
7 43.5 18.25 -7 43.5 25.25
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 23.7 13 10 22 Offense 22.4 19 19 17
Opp. Defense 17.5 2 1 4 Opp. Defense 26.2 27 28 17
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Denver Broncos 1 17 1 18 Oakland Raiders 21 21 15 31
Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards
Cooper 105 62 4 917 Thomas 130 78 3 972
Crabtree 115 66 7 760 Sanders 102 55 4 776
Roberts 41 25 4 403 Latimer 11 6 1 64
Smith 12 11 1 53 Daniels 60 35 3 375

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Amari Cooper (OAK, Questionable), Ronnie Hillman, C.J. Anderson (DEN, Questionable)

OAK Matchup Rating: 2.0 DEN Matchup Rating: 6.0

Oakland Raiders

Quarterback: After a one-week exemption to face Tom Brady, the Broncos resumed “No Fly Zone” status against the Chargers, holding Philip Rivers without a touchdown. It was the fifth time this season the Broncos kept the opposing QB out of the end zone this year. Denver ranks first in DVOA against the pass, and has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs this year. Even an impressive season for Derek Carr (FD $7,200, DK $5,600) doesn’t inspire enough confidence to start him on the road against such an elite defensive team.

latavius murray

Running Game: Latavius Murray (FD $6,200, DK $4,800) hasn’t been quite the breakout star many were expecting, but he is handling a big role in a successful offense as an every-down back. Murray has 42 carries and nine targets in his last two games, which is very attractive volume, and he’ll face a Denver defense this week that has allowed the 17th-most points to opposing backs. That doesn’t seem like a lot, but when you consider this is the top passing defense in the league, it makes sense that running backs are funneled some of the fantasy scoring responsibility. Don’t expect a ton of yards, but backs have scored 13 total touchdowns against the Broncos this season, and Murray could follow the lead of Charcandrick West, who had 150 total yards and two scores against the Broncos just a few weeks ago. Murray didn’t have a great game in the last meeting between these teams, but he did still receive 16 touches, which is worth paying for as a speculative tournament play.

Pass Catchers: The Broncos have elite corners at every position, so Amari Cooper (FD $6,900, DK $6,200) and Michael Crabtree (FD $6,700, DK $5,900) just aren’t smart picks this weekend. Denver has allowed he fewest FanDuel points per game to opposing wideouts this year, and are a full ten points per game behind the Packers, who rank 22nd. This is a truly elite pass defense, and it makes no sense to target them in daily fantasy.

The Takeaway: Denver is too tough of a defense to test with members of the Oakland offense. Latavius Murray is the only player we can even begin to consider, and even then, he’s got limited upside and a tough path to success.

Denver Broncos

Quarterback: Brock Osweiler (FD $6,900, DK $5,200) has taken a step back from his initial success against the Bears in his first start, throwing an interception in his last two starts and failing to gain as many yards per attempt, or throw for multiple touchdowns again. He’s a limited player, despite all of the talent around him, and even in this good matchup, his potential isn’t as high as some other affordable quarterback options. The Raiders allow the fifth-most points to opposing quarterbacks, and rank 27th in numberFire’s pass defense rankings, but that doesn’t really overcome all of Osweiler’s shortcomings as a fantasy asset. He only threw 26 times against the Chargers, and 27 times against the Bears. That’s too small of a workload for a quarterback that we expect 250+ yards and two or more touchdowns from. The Denver offense wants to establish the run and let the defense win, and Osweiler’s fantasy potential is nullified as a result.

ronnie hillman

Running Game: The Raiders aren’t great against the run, either, and this is an area where Denver is able to take advantage of a weakness from their opponent. Ronnie Hillman (FD $6,400, DK $4,700) shouldered the load on offense last week with 19 carries, but gained only 56 yards and did not catch a pass. C.J. Anderson (FD $5,900, DK $4,200) was more impressive on a per-carry basis, but left with an injury, and is unlikely to be 100% this weekend if he plays at all. Anderson has not played well through injury in the past, and is a big question mark unless we learn that he’s clearly healthy and ready to play at full strength. Hillman is hurt, as well, and the Broncos may limit touches for both in this matchup. Both are viable in tournaments, will Hillman slightly preferred, but keep an eye on Juwan Thompson if one or both of the top two backs sit out this week.

Pass Catchers: Demaryius Thomas (FD $7,700, DK $6,800) and Emmanuel Sanders (FD $7,100, DK $5,900) continue to dominate the targets in the Denver offense, but with the low volume and poor quality of the passes coming from Osweiler, there’s not a ton of upside here. I’m going to pass on the Denver passing game entirely, as they’ll be content to throw 20 times and run the ball as often as possible.

The Takeaway: Denver will look to win this game with their defense and running game, but their running backs just aren’t healthy enough to trust. Hillman and Anderson are viable in tournaments, but keep an eye on injury news as Sunday approaches.

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers

Dallas Cowboys Green Bay Packers
Cowboys Packers
Sunday – 4:25 p.m. Lambeau Field
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
7 42.5 17.75 -7 42.5 24.75
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 18.6 29 28 13 Offense 24.1 12 22 15
Opp. Defense 19.8 6 21 20 Opp. Defense 23.1 15 4 15
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Green Bay Packers 15 12 10 25 Dallas Cowboys 7 26 4 8
Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards
Bryant 57 26 2 342 Cobb 99 57 6 674
Williams 64 35 3 554 Adams 71 36 1 343
Beasley 55 39 3 392 Jones 59 31 7 611
Witten 80 60 2 553 Rodgers 68 48 6 450

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: None

DAL Matchup Rating: 3.0 GB Matchup Rating: 5.5

Dallas Cowboys

Quarterback: You should not roster Matt Cassel (FD $6,200, DK $5,100) this week. Cassel has no upside and a very low floor, and plays for an offense that is content to waste every second possible while inching the ball down the field. He did have one big game against the Eagles, who force up the tempo of games and brought a bit more out of the Dallas offense with their boom or bust style, but the journeyman QB has otherwise thrown two touchdowns to four interceptions since taking over as starter. The Packers are a respectable pass defense, ranking 11th in DVOA, which is more than enough to allow me to ignore Cassel during lineup building this weekend.

darren mcfadden

Running Game: Darren McFadden (FD $6,700, DK $5,000) remains the only Dallas offensive player worthy of serious consideration in daily fantasy football, and even then he’s a risky play. His volume hasn’t remained as steady as it once was, as Dallas struggles to sustain drives and give him multiple chances to carry the ball in succession. As a result, he has only 24 carries and 29 total touches in his last two games, numbers he met in single contests earlier this season. The Packers have struggled to defend Chicago’s backs this season, and gave up big games to Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson, but have otherwise been stout against the run, and tough to earn points against as a receiver out of the backfield. McFadden is a very speculative tournament option at best.

Pass Catchers: Dez Bryant (FD $7,400, DK $6,800) is still priced as if he has a high-efficiency quarterback waiting to come back. The quality of his targets (nine catches on 24 attempts over the past three games) is at an all-time low, and he can be avoided against a Green bay defense that ranks 22nd in fantasy points allowed to wideouts, anyway. Jason Witten (FD $5,500, DK $4,500) is going to see a healthy amount of targets, but his yards per catch and touchdown upside are so low that he’s not really even an option in PPR formats.

The Takeaway: Matt Cassel drags down the entire Dallas offense, and you can safely avoid nearly every Cowboy offensive player this week on all sites.

Green Bay Packers

aaron rodgers

Quarterback: Because of the way Dallas slows the game down, and because they’ve been playing from behind so often this season, opponents have only had to pass 388 times against the Cowboys, third-fewest in the NFL. Compare this to the Giants, who have faced 101 more pass attempts on the year. The league average is 431, which means the Cowboys’ opponents generally have a 10% reduction in volume, which will generally translate to a 10% reduction in production given the average status (15th in DVOA, 14th in numberFire’s rankings) of the Dallas pass coverage unit. That’s the wrong kind of preface to a discussion about Aaron Rodgers (FD $8,900, DK $7,000), who has been struggling on his own to get the production he needs to match his high salary. Rodgers has only seven passing touchdowns in his last four games, as he and the Green Bay offense struggle to cope with injuries and inconsistency. He’s never out of the picture for daily fantasy football, especially in a matchup that lacks any sort of prohibitive threat. But since Dallas has only allowed 15 quarterback touchdowns all season, with Tom Brady representing the only QB to score more than twice against them, this is a very difficult spot to rely on Rodgers outside of a GPP lineup or two.

Running Game: Eddie Lacy (FD $6,200, DK $4,700) was limited last week due to a team discipline situation, while James Starks (FD $5,600, DK $4,300) lost snaps to John Crockett and nearly lost a fumble in the red zone. Lacy is the back the Packers need to succeed, and assuming he is on time to workouts and meetings this week, he should be the lead back against Dallas. The Cowboys rank eighth in fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs, and are 26th in DVOA against the run, so the opportunity will be there for whoever totes the ball for Green Bay. It should be Lacy, but lots of money has been lost playing daily fantasy football and assuming the motives and next moves of coaches dealing with issues of talent and motivation. Tread carefully, but roster Lacy in tournaments to take advantage of a good matchup and what could be incredibly low ownership.

Pass Catchers: The Cowboys have been prone to allowing big games to slot receivers who are actually their team’s top receiving threats. Julian Edelman and Jordan Matthews combined for three solid games against Dallas, while Jarvis Landry and Jerricho Cotchery posted respectable numbers. Randall Cobb (FD $7,000, DK $6,300) will get the next crack at the Dallas defense, who lack in depth at defensive back and have been using Tyler Patmon to defend slot receivers quite a bit this year. Patmon hasn’t answered the call, and the other defenders Dallas rotates in to defend the slot don’t demand much respect, either. Brandon Carr has been the team’s best corner, and he’ll spend more time against Davante Adams (FD $6,300, DK $4,200) than anyone else, which helps reinforce my decision to not trust Adams, who continues to fail to haul in a majority of his targets. Dallas has a very strong tight end defense, so Richard Rodgers (FD $5,600, DK $3,900) is tough to justify this week.

The Takeaway: The Dallas offense will take snaps away from the Green Bay offense with their slow tempo, which means the expectations for all Packers should be lowered a bit. Rodgers is never out of the question, and Cobb should be in for a good game out of the slot. The running back situation is frustrating, but use Lacy in a couple of lineups, and maybe even hedge with Starks in a lineup or two, just to take advantage of the matchup.

Seattle Seahawks at Baltimore Ravens

Seattle Seahawks Baltimore Ravens
Seahawks Ravens
Sunday – 8:30 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
-10 42.5 26.25 10 42.5 16.25
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 25.4 8 21 1 Offense 22.7 17 9 21
Opp. Defense 24.3 19 16 10 Opp. Defense 19.1 3 5 3
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Baltimore Ravens 24 5 27 5 Seattle Seahawks 5 1 3 26
Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards
Baldwin 71 55 8 778 Aiken 87 49 4 584
Kearse 44 29 3 429 Givens 36 17 1 311
Lockett 44 35 3 449 Brown 30 14 0 112
Willson 21 14 1 188 Gillmore 47 33 4 412

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Marshawn Lynch (SEA, Out), Matt Schaub, Crockett Gillmore (BAL, Questionable)

SEA Matchup Rating: 7.0 BAL Matchup Rating: 2.0

Seattle Seahawks

russell wilson

Quarterback: Russell Wilson (FD $8,500, DK $6,300) has found the end zone 12 times in the last three weeks, including finally picking up a rushing touchdown against the Vikings. He’s completed at least 70% of his passes in each of those three games, with a healthy yards per attempt average and QB ratings well above 100 in each start. Wilson is on a roll, and the subpar defense of the Ravens will not slow him down. Baltimore has done a decent job of shutting down lesser passers like Ryan Tannehill and Case Keenum in recent weeks, but their 22 touchdowns allowed to only four interceptions on the season should speak to their quality in the secondary. Wilson and the Seahawks are on a mission, overcoming injuries to have their most prolific offensive outputs, and we can expect more of the same this week. Wilson is a core play in all formats.

Running Game: Thomas Rawls (FD $7,400, DK $5,800) has taken over the Beast Mode role in the Seattle offense and has been producing at a very high level recently. He has 20 or more touches in his last four starts, and has 100 or more rushing yards in four games already this season. He’s scored on five of his 150 touches, including touchdowns in each of his last four games with ten or more touches. The Ravens actually have a pretty good run defense, ranked ninth according to numberFire, but that’s not enough to steer me away from Rawls, who has done well against two other solid run defenses (Steelers, Vikings) over the past two games. If you don’t use Wilson in a cash game lineup, I think you have to include Rawls, who is seeing such a high volume at a still affordable price.

Pass Catchers: Doug Baldwin (FD $6,800, DK $4,500) has been the best receiver on the Seattle roster all season, but his volume was inconsistent when the team was trying to feature Jimmy Graham and work out its identity after offseason changes. Over the last four weeks, however, Baldwin has been targeted 31 times, hauled in 24 passes, and accounted for six touchdowns. The Ravens rank 26th against the pass this season per DVOA, and have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers. Baldwin will line up in the slot and face the solid coverage of Ladarius Webb more often than not, which limits his appeal slightly, but he’s a talented enough player to get his catches and yards against a non-elite corner. On the outside, look for Tyler Lockett (FD $5,600, DK $3,500) to remain involved in the offense, which means he’s a GPP target thanks to his incredible playmaking ability. At tight end, Luke Willson (FD $4,800, DK $2,500) didn’t see a ton of targets last weekend, as Cooper Helfet actually out-targeted him in the passing game. Neither player holds much appeal for fantasy purposes, as the Seahawks will distribute Graham’s targets to the wideouts and backs instead of force-feeding the tight ends.

The Takeaway: The Seahawks are on a roll, and it’s tough to bet against Russell Wilson and Thomas Rawls. Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett remain strong plays as well, especially if stacking with Wilson. Lockett is especially interesting in a “stack” with the Seattle D/ST, as he handles kick and punt return duties and could break away for a score that counts twice in your points total.

Baltimore Ravens

Quarterback: Like the Bucs, the Seahawks have a significant improvement in their weighted DVOA when compared to their standard DVOA, which implies recent performances have been strong and the team is trending in the right direction defensively. That’s bad news for the Ravens, who will start either Matt Schaub (FD $6,000, DK $5,100) or Jimmy Clausen (FD $5,000, DK $5,000) under center. Schaub has been poor since taking over for the Ravens, while we’ve already seen what Clausen can do under center against the Seahawks this season. Neither player is worthy of even a second of your time as you scroll through the QB list this week on your favorite DFS sites.

javorius allen

Running Game: Seattle has allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs all season, and Javorius Allen (FD $7,000, DK $5,300) hasn’t been overly impressive as a runner so far this year. His only hope will be his PPR potential, as the Seahawks have allowed big games through the air to backs this season (Cunningham, Williams and McFadden all had solid PPR outings as backs). Even then, there are better mid-range options who stand a chance of scoring a touchdown or two, something we can’t really expect from Allen this week.

Pass Catchers: No matter who winds up under center, there are no Baltimore wideouts worthy of a spot in your lineups. Kamar Aiken (FD $6,000, DK $4,600) has been seeing nice volume, and may hit value in a PPR, but his ceiling is very low. Tight end has been the best way to attack the Seattle defense, and Crockett Gillmore (FD $5,200, DK $3,300) would be in play if he’s healthy, but otherwise, the Ravens may not have a TE option worth considering due to injuries and suspensions.

The Takeaway: The Ravens don’t have a very positive outlook for this weekend, as they’ll be using a journeyman backup quarterback against one of the league’s best defenses.

New York Giants at Miami Dolphins

New York Giants Miami Dolphins
Giants Dolphins
Monday – 8:30 p.m. Sun Life Stadium
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
-1.5 46.5 24 1.5 46.5 22.5
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 25.6 7 11 29 Offense 20.0 27 17 23
Opp. Defense 25.0 24 24 30 Opp. Defense 24.7 21 32 19
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Miami Dolphins 22 30 25 29 New York Giants 29 25 19 30
Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards
Beckham 133 78 10 1157 Landry 117 79 5 928
Harris 47 28 4 352 Matthews 61 43 4 666
Randle 67 42 4 533 Stills 47 20 2 343
Donnell 41 29 2 223 Cameron 58 26 2 306

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The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Rishard Matthews (MIA, Doubtful), Kenny Stills (MIA, Questionable)

NYG Matchup Rating: 7.0 MIA Matchup Rating: 5.0

New York Giants

Quarterback: This should be one of the more interesting matchups from a fantasy perspective this weekend, as two teams that give up plenty of fantasy points meet on Monday night in what should be a competitive contest. The Giants come into this one on the heels of three straight losses, but still in the hunt in the miserable NFC East. For the Giants to go anywhere with this season, Eli Manning (FD $7,500, DK $6,100) will need to start performing more consistently, which might be too tall of a task for the Ole Miss product. Manning has huge upside as both a real and fantasy quarterback when he’s firing on all cylinders, but his recent performances have shown an inaccurate, inefficient player who doesn’t take full advantage of having one of the best receivers in the league on his side. The Dolphins rank 30th against the pass according to numberFire, and have allowed the tenth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season, including four touchdowns to Ryan Fitzpatrick just a couple of weeks ago. Manning has the potential for a four-score game, or he could throw for 200 yards, a touchdown and two picks. The uncertainty means he can’t be used in cash contests, but the upside means he’s a strong GPP play.

Running Game: I have strongly considered just removing the “running game” section from the Giants breakdowns and wondered if anyone would notice. The Giants don’t feature any one back, and don’t gain any consistent yardage when they hand the ball off. No back sees a healthy workload in the passing game, either. This is a situation to avoid until further notice.

odell beckham

Pass Catchers: Odell Beckham (FD $9,300, DK $9,100) will likely be shadowed by Brent Grimes in this game, which means he won’t get the benefit of facing Jamar Taylor at all, but otherwise, it’s not a fact that should prohibit you from clicking on Beckham’s name when filling out your lineups. In fact, despite his shadowing efforts most of the season, the Dolphins rank last in terms of DVOA against WR1s. Beckham has double-digit targets in each of his last four appearances, and has 100+ yards in each of his last five. He has six touchdowns over that same span, and seems to be healthy and running well after a mid-season injury likely slowed him down a bit. He’s a core play in all formats and should be the highest scoring wideout on this slate. Rueben Randle (FD $5,600, DK $3,500) sees a few targets per game, and will have favorable matchups, but there’s not a lot of upside for the inconsistent wideout. Will Tye (FD $4,900, DK $2,800) will see a bulk of the work at tight end for the Giants, but his fantasy appeal is low due to a generally low volume of targets.

The Takeaway: Odell Beckham is an elite option in any format, while Eli Manning is worthy of a spot in a couple of your tournament lineups, particularly as a part of a stack with Beckham. Otherwise, the Giants just don’t offer much clarity or talent on offense.

Miami Dolphins

Quarterback: Prior to a relatively disappointing one-touchdown effort against the Ravens, Ryan Tannehill (FD $6,900, DK $5,200) had thrown multiple touchdowns in three straight games, including three scores and over 300 yards against the Jets. The upside is there for Tannehill, but in a more extreme version of Eli Manning, the floor is there too, and it’s low, and it’s frequently in play. The Giants rank fourth in points allowed to opposing QBs, and 27th in DVOA against the pass, so this is a very favorable matchup for Tannehill. But so was the Baltimore defense last week, which held him to nine completions for 86 yards. Toss Tannehill into a GPP or two, but don’t invest too much in such an inconsistent player.

lamar miller

Running Game: The Giants have been a pretty average run defense this season, but they rank in the top ten in receptions, yards and touchdowns for backs out of the backfield. This sets up well for Lamar Miller (FD $6,600, DK $5,700), who is a talented player who can break big plays on the ground and through the air. Miller is coming off of a 20-carry game against Baltimore, and has a few high-target games over the past couple of months, as well. If he gets 18-20 touches against the Giants, he should be able to earn 100+ yards, and would just need a touchdown to really pay off his salary. The team’s commitment to Miller has always been an issue, as his floor is very low due to inconsistent volume. But the ceiling is high, and he belongs in tournament lineups this weekend.

Pass Catchers: Jarvis Landry (FD $7,100, DK $6,300) avoids the coverage of top corners Prince Amukamara and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie thanks to his role as a slot receiver, which should boost his upside in this matchup. Slot receivers Anquan Boldin, Eric Decker, Danny Amendola and Leonard Hankerson all performed well against the Giants in games earlier this season, and Landry should offer more of the same. He’s great at finding open space, and making moves after the catch, and could break a big play or two in this back-and-forth matchup. DeVante Parker (FD $5,900, DK $4,000) is also worth a mention, as the rookie wideout has touchdowns in his first two appearances, and has unquestionable talent. He won’t have an easy matchup against Prince or DRC, but if Tannehill can throw him a decent pass or two, he could break another huge play again this week.

The Takeaway: Landry is the top option for the Dolphins this week, and is viable in cash games but preferred in tournaments. Miller and Tannehill are solid GPP options, while Parker is an interesting dart throw with a lot of upside.


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About the Author

LeoTPP
LeoTPP

Leo Howell is an associate editor, weekend site manager and writer for RotoGrinders. He has played fantasy sports for as long as he can remember, and has been playing DFS since 2012. He can be found on Twitter at @LeoHowell8