NFL Grind Down: Week 16 - Page Two
Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs
| Cleveland Browns | Kansas City Chiefs | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Arrowhead Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.5 | 43 | 15.25 | -12.5 | 43 | 27.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.1 | 29 | 11 | 29 | Offense | 26.1 | 8 | 28 | 8 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.4 | 3 | 19 | 7 | Opp. Defense | 27.6 | 31 | 22 | 31 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 10 | 5 | 29 | 2 | Cleveland Browns | 28 | 21 | 25 | 14 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Benjamin | 109 | 61 | 5 | 905 | Maclin | 113 | 79 | 6 | 978 | |
| Gabriel | 46 | 28 | 0 | 241 | Wilson | 47 | 29 | 2 | 414 | |
| Hawkins | 43 | 27 | 0 | 276 | Thomas | 24 | 17 | 2 | 174 | |
| Barnidge | 104 | 68 | 9 | 930 | Kelce | 93 | 65 | 4 | 822 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Duke Johnson (CLE, Questionable)
CLE Matchup Rating: 2.0
KC Matchup Rating: 6.0
Cleveland Browns
Quarterback: Johnny Manziel (FD $6,000, DK $5,100) put together a somewhat respectable stat line against the Seahawks last weekend, but it wasn’t nearly enough to pay off a daily fantasy salary. This week he’ll face a similarly strong Kansas City defense that ranks third in weighted DVOA, which favors recent results when considering overall defensive efficiency. According to that metric, Kansas City has been a better defense than the Seahawks. Going on the road to Arrowhead in December is a nightmare for opposing teams, as well, so avoid the dynamic young passer this weekend.
Running Game: As noted above, the Chiefs have been playing some of the best defensive football in the league as of late. The flow of this game will not favor the Cleveland backs, and the matchup is terrible. As a result, you can safely avoid any Browns player listed as an “RB” this weekend.
Pass Catchers: The Browns’ best weapon on offense is their tight end, and the Chiefs rank second in DVOA against that position, and have allowed the fewest FanDuel points per game to tight ends. As a result, I can’t recommend Gary Barnidge (FD $6,400, DK $4,700). The only player to consider is Travis Benjamin (FD $5,400, DK $4,300), who is cheap and capable of breaking away for a big play or two. The Chiefs have allowed big point totals to wideouts this season, and if Manziel does anything through the air, Benjamin is one of the top candidates to be on the receiving end.
The Takeaway: Travis Benjamin is really the only Cleveland player to consider this week. The Browns have an implied team total around 15 points, which means we’re just trying to find the one or two players who may score a touchdown in a tough matchup. That’s not a great way to win money in daily fantasy football.
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback: The Browns rank 28th in DVOA against the pass and the run, and are in the top ten in points allowed to quarterbacks, running backs and tight ends. The only question for Alex Smith (FD $6,800, DK $5,100) and company is how much they’ll actually have to pass, as they should win this game easily. In a blowout win last week, Smith threw 25 times and rushed four times, which led to a disappointing fantasy output. He hasn’t thrown more than 30 times in a game since Week 10. Smith just doesn’t have the floor or upside to justify use in DFS this week.
Running Game: Now that he’s healthy, Charcandrick West (FD $6,700, DK $5,700) has resumed his role as the lead back for the Chiefs, and should hold off Spencer Ware (FD $5,400, DK $4,000) for touches this weekend. The Browns have the worst run defense in the league according to numberFire, and while it’s been a couple of weeks since they allowed a touchdown to an opposing back, that could all change this week as Kansas City controls the clock against them. West is a solid play in all formats.
Pass Catchers: Jeremy Maclin (FD $6,900, DK $6,000) checks in as the most expensive player in this game on most sites, and his role in a likely blowout win doesn’t measure up to that price tag. He could be the one to score the 14 or 21 points Kansas City will post to gain a big lead on the Browns, but if not, he’ll struggle get more than 75 yards and a touchdown. The Browns are strongest against tight ends when compared to any other pass catching position per DVOA, so I prefer Maclin to Travis Kelce (FD $6,100, DK $4,300), but neither is appealing with a big win on the way for a conservative Kansas City offense.
The Takeaway: West is the top play for the Chiefs, who should win this game going away, while Maclin is a secondary option. The defense and special teams is a strong play, as well.
Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins
| Indianapolis Colts | Miami Dolphins | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Sun Life Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 20.4 | 24 | 21 | 29 | Offense | 19.9 | 26 | 19 | 22 | |
| Opp. Defense | 25.8 | 26 | 28 | 29 | Opp. Defense | 26.6 | 29 | 27 | 25 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Miami Dolphins | 25 | 32 | 27 | 29 | Indianapolis Colts | 24 | 20 | 28 | 28 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Hilton | 120 | 61 | 5 | 1016 | Landry | 145 | 98 | 5 | 1081 | |
| Moncrief | 101 | 61 | 6 | 720 | Matthews | 61 | 43 | 4 | 666 | |
| Johnson | 66 | 34 | 3 | 418 | Parker | 34 | 17 | 2 | 295 | |
| Fleener | 73 | 45 | 2 | 390 | Cameron | 63 | 30 | 2 | 346 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Donte Moncrief (IND, Questionable), Matt Hasselbeck (IND, Probable), Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker (MIA, Probable)
IND Matchup Rating: 5.0
MIA Matchup Rating: 6.0
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback: Not only will Andrew Luck miss another game for the Colts, but Matt Hasselbeck (FD $6,000, DK $5,100) will either miss out or play through a list of injuries that includes his back, neck, ribs and jaw. The Dolphins do have a bad pass defense (31st in DVOA, seventh in points allowed to opposing passers), but Hasselbeck can’t be trusted to finish the game, so the only DFS appeal here would be if the veteran sits out, and Charlie Whitehurst (FD $6,000, DK $5,000) starts. Whitehurst would then be a secondary GPP option, as even a great matchup doesn’t make him a lock for production.
Running Game: No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing backs than Miami, who have earned that distinction over the past few weeks thanks to big games from names like McFadden, Ivory, Allen, Jennings and Woodhead. Frank Gore (FD $6,000, DK $4,000) is on the same talent tier as those backs, and has a very good chance of seeing a healthy amount of touches as the Colts try to hide their injured or inefficient passer this weekend. He has 16 or more touches in seven straight games, which should be enough for a solid return on investment relative to his still quite low salary.
Pass Catchers: T.Y. Hilton (FD $6,800, DK $5,800) got in the Festivus spirit this week by airing his grievances about the playcalling, which didn’t impress his head coach. Still, players who speak up often wind up seeing increased roles or improved production in the near future as their team biases in their direction, or as they play with more motivation to back up their claims. Either way, Hilton may have a better game than he has in the few weeks prior, but his quarterback situation leaves a lot to be desired. He and the other Indianapolis pass catchers are tough to trust this weekend, but he and Donte Moncrief (FD $6,300, DK $4,300) are the wideouts to pick if you want to target a Miami pass defense that ranks last in DVOA against WR1s, and 28th against WR2s. If Moncrief misses out, plug in Andre Johnson (FD $5,100, DK $3,400) or Phillip Dorsett (FD $4,800, DK $3,000), but with much lower expectations. The tight end situation has been a mess over the past couple of weeks, so it’s best to stick to the two star wideouts (or just Hilton if Moncrief isn’t good to go) for exposure to the Indy passing attack.
The Takeaway: The Colts would probably be better off letting Matt Hasselbeck get healthy before throwing him back on the field, but the veteran QB will likely give it a shot, and as a result, the passing game is tough to rely on for daily fantasy purposes. Frank Gore is a strong play, but the passing game should be used sparingly in tournaments.
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback: The quarterbacks to have big games against the Colts this year are pretty predictable and understandable. Bortles, Roethlisberger, and Brady are three of the top producers at the QB position, and the average Indy defense couldn’t slow them down. Matt Ryan did throw three touchdowns, but also threw two picks, and no other QB had all that big of a game against the Colts this season. Ryan Tannehill (FD $6,900, DK $5,100) has just three total touchdowns in his last three games, and has been very inconsistent this season, but does have 3+ TD upside, as he’s shown when he’s been at his best. The Dolphins are at home, the site of Tannehill’s best game of the season against Houston, so the GPP upside is there for him against another AFC South foe.
Running Game: Three weeks ago, the Dolphins gave Lamar Miller (FD $6,500, DK $6,400) 20 carries and he responded with 113 yards. Two weeks ago, he got 12 carries and scored twice. When he gets touches, he produces. But will he get touches this week? The Colts are a middling run defense (14th in DVOA, 13th in fantasy points allowed), and the Dolphins are home favorites, so Miller should be a strong play. But his uncertain volume leaves him as a GPP option only. Some nagging injury issues may be the excuse the Dolphins need to keep him on the sideline, but if he plays, he has tons of potential.
Pass Catchers: Slot receivers have torched the Colts all season long, which is why a healthy Jarvis Landry (FD $7,000, DK $6,400) would be a top play this weekend. If he suits up, he should be in your PPR lineups, as he’ll follow in the footsteps of Danny Amendola, Eric Decker, Kendall Wright and others who have excelled from interior positions against Indy. Outside receivers have not had the same kind of efficiency against the Colts, as Indy ranks ninth and 12th in DVOA against WR1 and WR2 respectively, but overall they’ve allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts, which means DeVante Parker (FD $6,000, DK $4,100) and Kenny Stills (FD $4,800, DK $3,200) are GPP dart throws (Parker if healthy, Stills if Parker is out).
The Takeaway: Jarvis Landry is a top play, especially in PPR formats, but the rest of the Miami offense is tougher to figure out. Lamar Miller should be a solid play, but may not get the touches he needs, while Tannehill and the other receivers are tournament targets.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints
| Jacksonville Jaguars | New Orleans Saints | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Mercedes-Benz Superdome | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.5 | 12 | 10 | 19 | Offense | 25.0 | 9 | 1 | 27 | |
| Opp. Defense | 30.9 | 32 | 30 | 32 | Opp. Defense | 27.1 | 30 | 26 | 12 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New Orleans Saints | 32 | 30 | 18 | 32 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 27 | 23 | 17 | 26 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Robinson | 133 | 69 | 13 | 1141 | Cooks | 116 | 74 | 8 | 1001 | |
| Hurns | 90 | 53 | 8 | 907 | Snead | 92 | 63 | 3 | 880 | |
| Lee | 22 | 9 | 0 | 164 | Colston | 67 | 45 | 4 | 520 | |
| Thomas | 72 | 42 | 5 | 431 | Watson | 98 | 67 | 5 | 761 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: T.J. Yeldon (JAC, Doubtful), Denard Robinson, Allen Hurns (JAC, Probable), Drew Brees, Ben Watson, Marques Colston (NO, Questionable)
JAC Matchup Rating: 7.5
NO Matchup Rating: 7.5
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback: Blake Bortles (FD $8,200, DK $6,500) gets to face the Saints this week. There’s not a lot more analysis needed, but I will point out that New Orleans is dead last in DVOA pass defense, numberFire pass defense, numberFire overall defense, Weighted DVOA defense, and first in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, running backs and tight ends. There is no worse defense in the NFL, and Bortles has been an above average fantasy asset all season. He’s a core play in all formats.
Running Game: As noted above, the Saints have also allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs on the season, and rank 29th in DVOA against the run, and 31st in DVOA against backs in the passing game. Denard Robinson (FD $6,400, DK $5,400) looks likely to get the start in place of an injured T.J. Yeldon, and Robinson is a top play as well. He saw 10 targets last week against the Falcons, and has 14 carries in back to back games. If he can get 20 carries + targets against the Saints, he should go over 100 total yards, and would only need to find the end zone to make his fantasy owners happy with their selection. If you’re not rostering anyone from the Jacksonville passing game, you should find a way to get Robinson into your lineups. If Yeldon starts, he assumes the role of top option, and if both Robinson and Yeldon miss out, Jonas Gray (FD $4,500, DK $3,000) would be the player to target.
Pass Catchers: It took a bit longer than most expected, but Julius Thomas (FD $6,500, DK $5,100) has settled into his role in the Jacksonville offense and is a weekly producer at a thin tight end position. He’s received eight or more targets in five of ten appearances this season, including three of his last five. He has touchdowns in four of his last five outings, and faces a defense that has allowed over 1100 yards and 10 touchdowns to tight ends so far this season. The upside is tremendous, and Thomas is a top tight end play in any format. The wide receivers don’t need much introduction, as Allen Robinson (FD $8,400, DK $7,500) and Allen Hurns (FD $7,100, DK $5,300) will see the bulk of the targets and have the highest upsides. The Saints are equally bad against all types of wideouts, and both Allens should run routes against Brandon Browner at some point in this game, meaning it’s truly a pick ‘em between these two wideouts, with Robinson having a higher ceiling and a higher price.
The Takeaway: I cannot fathom building a cash game lineup without a member of the Jacksonville offense this weekend. Bortles and Thomas are elite options at their positions, while Robinson, Robinson and Hurns are top plays as well.
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback: Drew Brees (FD $8,200, DK $6,800) may play, but he’s dealing with a torn plantar fascia, and as we’ve seen, that’s an injury that can really limit a passer. The Jaguars are a great matchup for quarterbacks (30th in DVOA, sixth in fantasy points allowed), but I just can’t trust a QB dealing with a foot injury when there are better options elsewhere. Blake Bortles is a better option at a similar price, but Brees can be deployed in tournaments if he’s cleared to play. If he sits out, Matt Flynn (FD $5,000, DK $5,000) or Garrett Grayson would be solid punt plays.
Running Game: Just when it looked like the Jaguars might be weakening against the run, they hold Devonta Freeman to just over two yards per carry in Week 15. The Saints will want to feature Tim Hightower (FD $6,300, DK $4,500) and will likely get him 15-20 carries and a few catches, but this Jaguar defense is strong against the run. They rank in the top-15 according to both DVOA and numberFire rankings, and have the third-best yards per attempt allowed in the NFL. Hightower is cheap and locked into volume, so he’s viable in tournaments, but there are safer places to go in cash contests.
Pass Catchers: Brandin Cooks (FD $7,000, DK $5,900) and Willie Snead (FD $6,000, DK $4,500) should see the bulk of the receiver targets against a defense that ranks 25th or worse in DVOA against the various wideout positions. Jacksonville also ranks 28th in DVOA against tight ends, and has allowed the sixth-most points to the position, which makes Benjamin Watson (FD $5,600, DK $5,300) a top play at tight end. He’s seen eight or more targets in each of the last four games, and that sort of volume against Jacksonville will almost certainly translate into a solid fantasy outing. If a backup QB starts for the Saints, dial back expectations a bit for these pass catchers, but otherwise, deploy them in tournaments based on your level of trust in Drew Brees and his hurting foot.
The Takeaway: The Saints have a great matchup, but with their veteran quarterback either playing through a painful, limiting injury or sitting on the bench, they’re tough to trust. Still, play New Orleans players in tournaments, and take advantage of what should be a high-scoring affair.
San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions
| San Francisco 49ers | Detroit Lions | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Ford Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 43 | 17 | -9 | 43 | 26 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 14.4 | 32 | 29 | 23 | Offense | 21.6 | 19 | 9 | 31 | |
| Opp. Defense | 25.9 | 28 | 16 | 19 | Opp. Defense | 24.2 | 18 | 24 | 27 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Detroit Lions | 20 | 15 | 14 | 22 | San Francisco 49ers | 16 | 31 | 19 | 6 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Boldin | 98 | 59 | 3 | 691 | Johnson | 124 | 72 | 7 | 1000 | |
| Smith | 51 | 26 | 3 | 579 | Tate | 118 | 82 | 6 | 761 | |
| Patton | 51 | 28 | 1 | 338 | Moore | 42 | 28 | 4 | 331 | |
| McDonald | 34 | 22 | 2 | 228 | Ebron | 58 | 38 | 4 | 463 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Shaun Draughn (SF, Doubtful), Torey Smith (SF, Questionable), Calvin Johnson (DET, Questionable)
SF Matchup Rating: 3.5
DET Matchup Rating: 6.5
San Francisco 49ers
Quarterback: There were a couple weeks when we were able to convince ourselves that Blaine Gabbert (FD $6,100, DK $5,000) might be a viable fantasy asset as the San Francisco starter. However, after back to back poor showings without any rushing upside, the chariot has turned back into a pumpkin. The Lions are an improved defense from the start of the season and tend to limit opposing QB upside, anyway, and there are better bargain passers to target this week.
Running Game: Shaun Draughn (FD $5,700, DK $4,500) would hold a certain level of appeal if he were to start this week, but he looks to be too hurt to suit up. Kendall Gaskins (FD $4,900, DK $3,000) saw a decent amount of targets out of the backfield last week in a loss, and with another loss likely on its way, he represents the best option in PPR formats for six or seven potential grabs along with a moderate yardage total. If he scores, he will blow away his required scoring output for his cheap price.
Pass Catchers: Anquan Boldin (FD $5,900, DK $3,700) is the best player on the San Francisco offense, and he saw an appropriate level of volume last week, resulting in a pretty good stat line. The Lions are decent against the pass, but they don’t shut down opposing wideouts, and Boldin should avoid Darius Slay thanks to his role as a slot corner on over 50% of his routes, according to PFF. He and Blake Bell (FD $4,500, DK $2,500) (Lions have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends) are the Niners passing game options to fire up in a tournament lineup or two.
The Takeaway: The Niners may struggle to get to 14 points against a decent Lions defense in a road game that will cause them to cross a couple of time zones. Gaskins, Boldin and Bell are the only players worth any consideration.
Detroit Lions
Quarterback: When the 49ers are playing away from home, they are truly one of the worst teams in the NFL. Quarterbacks on teams hosting the Niners have averaged nearly nine yards per attempt this season, with 13 touchdowns and only four picks on 227 attempts. Matthew Stafford (FD $7,600, DK $6,100) has multiple touchdowns in four straight games, and has the upside for a huge game in this meaningless matchup with the terrible Niners. He’s a top tournament play at a nice price across the industry.
Running Game: The 49ers are terrible against the run on the road, as well, and have allowed the third-most fantasy points to running backs on the season. But will Ameer Abdullah (FD $5,300, DK $3,800) or Joique Bell (FD $5,300, DK $4,000) be the one scoring those points this week? The answer could be both, which limits upside, but makes both players equally interesting in tournaments. If the duo were a single back, he’d be the top play this weekend, but since the two will likely split carries, I think we have to limit exposure to tournaments. Abdullah would make sense as the preferred play, as getting a younger player some work as the season winds down makes sense, but Bell is a likely goal-line runner for the Lions and has multi-touchdown upside.
Pass Catchers: Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers and now Calvin Johnson (FD $7,800, DK $7,400)? When will our fantasy heroes stop failing us? Megatron has only two catches over his last two games as his season draws to a close with yet another nagging injury slowing the incredibly talented wideout. Just a month removed from a three-touchdown outing against the Eagles, Johnson has caught five passes for 79 yards since, and may not be needed that often against a bad San Francisco defense. The Niners aren’t particularly good or bad against any one type of wideout, so given his track record as of late, Golden Tate (FD $6,700, DK $5,800) appears to be the player to roster from this passing attack. he has six or more catches in five straight games, with five touchdowns over that span. San Francisco has been solid against tight ends from a fantasy standpoint this season, but DVOA suggests they are a subpar defense against the position (24th). That means Eric Ebron (FD $4,800, DK $2,900) is in play as well, but his volume is concerning.
The Takeaway: Stafford and Tate are the top options for the Lions, while the running backs also present solid tournament plays. Calvin Johnson could feel well enough to scrape together a solid outing, but he’s very tough to trust.