NFL Grind Down: Week 16 - Page Two
| Detroit Lions | Cincinnati Bengals | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5 | 43 | 24 | 5 | 43 | 19 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 25.6 | 7 | 3 | 31 | Offense | 16.6 | 29 | 28 | 32 | |
| Opp. Defense | 21.8 | 15 | 8 | 32 | Opp. Defense | 24.2 | 25 | 28 | 16 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 13 | 31 | 4 | 23 | Detroit Lions | 15 | 29 | 16 | 24 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Tate | 107 | 82 | 4 | 885 | Green | 123 | 67 | 8 | 980 | |
| Jones | 97 | 54 | 8 | 970 | LaFell | 79 | 46 | 3 | 505 | |
| Golladay | 37 | 22 | 2 | 369 | Malone | 16 | 6 | 1 | 63 | |
| Ebron | 72 | 47 | 3 | 482 | Kroft | 49 | 35 | 5 | 348 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
DET Matchup Rating: 6.0
CIN Matchup Rating: 3.5
Detroit Lions
Quarterback: The Lions are coming off a business-like but necessary home win over the Bears last Saturday. They kept their slim playoff hopes alive with that win, and they will certainly be more motivated than the joke of a team called the Bengals on the other side. Detroit is a five point road favorite in this game, which tells you everything you need to know about how bad the Bengals are in their current state. Matthew Stafford is playing through a hand injury, but he seems to be playing well in the process. The Bengals are vulnerable via the ground, the air, and the pony express right now. Stafford isn’t my first quarterback choice on the board in Week 16, but I certainly wouldn’t talk you off him if you want to go in that direction.
Running Backs: Ameer Abdullah returned from injury against the Bears, but he was barely involved and seems to have found his way into the doghouse. Theo Riddick appears to be getting a larger chunk of the work, and he still played on more than 50% of the snaps even with Abdullah back last week. There was some concern that Riddick might wind up on the injury report this week after aggravating his wrist injury, but he is practicing in full. Tion Green might continue to have a role with Abdullah in the doghouse, but Riddick is the only option worth considering. He is a stronger play on full PPR sites like DraftKings and FantasyDraft.
Pass Catchers: The Bengals are offering very little resistance and don’t seem to want to tackle these days, and all of Detroit’s primary pass catchers are in play. Golden Tate carries a little less appeal for me, as the Bengals have still done reasonably well against slot receivers. They held Adam Thielen in check last week, as well. Marvin Jones is a high upside option, and Eric Ebron has picked up his play of late. Since Cincinnati ranks just 30th in DVOA against the tight end spot, there’s potential reason to wide the wave here.
The Takeaway: Detroit carries extra appeal simply because the Bengals have given up on the season. With Ameer Abdullah in the doghouse, you can consider Theo Riddick as a PPR RB option. The entire passing game is in play, and Eric Ebron is primed for a strong finish to the year. After two solid games in a row, he should be able to keep it rolling against a team that has struggled against the tight end position.
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback: As it stands right now, the Bengals are simply a joke. They have a lame duck coach and a team that has simply quit. Andy Dalton has had a disastrous season, and the Bengals have scored just 14 points combined over the last two weeks. Detroit has a solid defense, and there is no point to going here. Move along.
Running Backs: Joe Mixon is expected back from his concussion this week, and he practiced in full on Wednesday. I would expect this to be a fairly even split between Mixon and Giovani Bernard in Week 16. With the way the Bengals are playing, it doesn’t make any sense to chance this situation. Again, move along.
Pass Catchers: While A.J. Green is one of the most talented wide receivers in the league, he is often snake-bitten by this team’s boring offense and the hit or miss play of Dalton under center. He has also drawn bad matchups of late, as he had to contend with top Vikings corner Xavier Rhodes last week. It doesn’t get much easier this week with Darius Slay hanging out for the Lions. Green is certainly capable of handling Slay, but he carries more risk than usual, especially with the team packing it in for 2017. None of the other receivers are even worth considering.
The Takeaway: Fading the Bengals offense worked out last week, and there’s no reason to think it couldn’t work again. Detroit’s defense is definitely in play and will likely go under-owned. The only thing that would help was if they were playing at home. A.J. Green is the only Cincinnati player on the DFS map, and he draws a very difficult assignment against Darius Slay.
| Miami Dolphins | Kansas City Chiefs | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 43.5 | 16.75 | -10 | 43.5 | 26.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.0 | 26 | 19 | 29 | Offense | 25.6 | 6 | 7 | 10 | |
| Opp. Defense | 21.6 | 14 | 25 | 27 | Opp. Defense | 24.4 | 26 | 10 | 13 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 24 | 13 | 30 | 13 | Miami Dolphins | 19 | 28 | 5 | 28 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Landry | 144 | 98 | 8 | 844 | Hill | 98 | 69 | 7 | 1,074 | |
| Parker | 79 | 46 | 1 | 543 | Wilson | 43 | 29 | 3 | 371 | |
| Stills | 92 | 51 | 6 | 759 | Robinson | 29 | 17 | 0 | 181 | |
| Thomas | 62 | 41 | 3 | 388 | Kelce | 114 | 79 | 7 | 991 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Damien Williams (MIA RB) – Doubtful (Shoulder) / DeVante Parker (MIA RB) – Questionable (Ankle)
MIA Matchup Rating: 4.0
KC Matchup Rating: 6.5
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback: Jay Cutler played well in a surprise win over New England two weeks ago, but he went back to typical Cutler mode with a poor performance against the Bills last week. He completed just 57% of his passes and made far too many mistakes, throwing no touchdowns in three picks in the loss, which effectively ended Miami’s playoff chances. This is a definite letdown spot with the team on the road following elimination, and I have zero interest in Cutler — even against an over-rated Chiefs defense.
Running Backs: The biggest bright spot over the last few games for this team has definitely been Kenyan Drake. Even if Damien Williams happens to return this week, Drake has earned the lion’s share of the carries for the final two games. He has 447 total yards from scrimmage over the last three contests, and he has 14 catches in that span. The Chiefs rank 31st in the league in DVOA against the run, making this a good matchup for Drake to keep the good times rolling. His price has really been jacked up on DraftKings, as he is actually the same price on both FD and DK. I’ll opt for Drake as a FanDuel-only option this week.
Pass Catchers: Jarvis Landry continues to rack up the targets on a weekly basis, as he has 143 targets on the year. His upside isn’t all that great because most of his targets come at a short distance from the line of scrimmage, but the PPR floor is quite solid. He is a cash game target in those formats. Unless the Dolphins fall way behind, I don’t expect there to be enough volume to go around for guys like Kenny Stills and DeVante Parker. There’s no real reason to go here on full slates, outside of a possible look at Landry in cash games.
The Takeaway: There is a real fear of the Dolphins packing it in now, so nobody is a primary play for me from this group. Kenyan Drake is still a strong play on FanDuel where he’s still affordable, but I can safely avoid him on sites where he has been priced up. Jarvis Landry is a strong play in PPR formats, but I will avoid the rest of the pass catchers from this team.
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback: Kansas City got back to the basics in a crisp home win against the Chargers last week, and that has them on the inside track to the AFC West title; they will win the division if they win their last two games. Alex Smith put in a workmanlike performance in that win, completing 23 of 30 passes and throwing for 231 yards and two scores without a turnover. This is the recipe that won games for them earlier in the year. Smith could certainly put up another solid game against a weak Miami defense, but his inconsistency is a bit of a worry. The Chiefs have been a roller coaster all year. Smith is in the middle of the pack when it comes to QB options in Week 16.
Running Backs: Andy Reid has finally remembered that he has a workhorse running back in Kareem Hunt, and Hunt’s production has skyrocketed back to its early season levels in the last few games. The Chiefs are 5-0 this year when Hunt gets 20+ carries in a game. They are 3-6 in games where he does not get 20 carries. That math isn’t difficult, though it does present a “chicken or the egg” type of argument. In any case, the Chiefs are better served when they seek to establish the run early and often. He logged 31 total touches (including seven receptions) last week, totaling over 200 yards from scrimmage. In a must win game, he will play on as many snaps as he can handle. Hunt has re-established himself as a weekly top five option at running back, and that shouldn’t change here.
Pass Catchers: Miami has been weaker defensively against the pass than the run for much of the year, and we saw Tyreek Hill show off his game breaking speed in last week’s win. He is a threat for a 50+ yard touchdown every time he touches the ball, and that GPP potential is always there. The Miami secondary is not that disciplined, and this would be the spot where any lapse in concentration as a result of “packing it in” could really hurt. While I am banking on intangible and/or emotional factors, it feels like Hill is nearly certain to get loose for at least one big play in this game. The upside is enormous. Miami has also struggled against tight ends, so Travis Kelce should be able to rebound from a subpar game last week.
The Takeaway: Fire up your Chiefs here. They have everything to play for, while the Dolphins’ season officially ended last week. That is definitely a consideration as we hit this stage of the season. Alex Smith is a reasonable mid-range QB option, while Hunt, Hill, and Kelce are top options at their respective positions.
| Buffalo Bills | New England Patriots | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.5 | 47 | 17.75 | -11.5 | 47 | 29.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.9 | 23 | 32 | 6 | Offense | 28.2 | 4 | 1 | 16 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.6 | 6 | 30 | 26 | Opp. Defense | 21.9 | 16 | 16 | 25 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New England Patriots | 27 | 19 | 31 | 10 | Buffalo Bills | 4 | 32 | 7 | 17 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Benjamin | 68 | 41 | 3 | 595 | Cooks | 98 | 58 | 6 | 984 | |
| Jones | 70 | 25 | 2 | 291 | Hogan | 59 | 34 | 5 | 439 | |
| Thompson | 60 | 32 | 2 | 441 | Amendola | 76 | 54 | 2 | 588 | |
| Clay | 56 | 39 | 2 | 457 | Gronkowski | 98 | 64 | 7 | 1,016 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Kelvin Benjamin (BUF WR) – Questionable (Knee) / Rex Burkhead (NE RB) – Out (Knee) / James White (NE RB) – Questionable (Ankle) / Chris Hogan (NE WR) – Questionable (Shoulder)
BUF Matchup Rating: 4.5
NE Matchup Rating: 7.5
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback: This should be an interesting game. It’s a very important one for the Bills, as they sit at 8-6 and on the fringe of a playoff spot. They will make the playoffs if they win their last two games, but they will need some help if they lose one. As such, the Bills should be going all out for a win. Unfortunately for them, they are a bit undermanned to take on the Patriots on the road, and they check in as twelve point underdogs. Tyrod Taylor is an interesting fantasy commodity, as he does bring some upside to the table with his legs. This will also be a game where the Bills will be forced to the air a bit more than normal. He has logged at least 25 rushing yards in six straight games. He really struggled in the first meeting between these teams, and I don’t think I can trust him on the road in DFS formats this week.
Running Backs: LeSean McCoy has been a huge key to Buffalo’s playoff push. After rushing for 156 yards and the game-winning score against the Colts two weeks ago, he added two touchdowns in last week’s victory over the Dolphins. Buffalo will certainly rely on him to touch the ball a lot in this game as long as it stays competitive. I have my doubts about whether that will be the case, but McCoy is certainly a volume-based RB #1 option in tournament formats. It’s impossible to argue for him over a safer play like Todd Gurley in cash games, though.
Pass Catchers: As usual, there’s really nothing to get excited about with this group. No wide receiver had more than 21 receiving yards last week even though Taylor threw for 224 yards. McCoy gets a lot of catches out of the backfield, and the safest receiving option is likely tight end Charles Clay. He has had a decent season when he has been healthy, and he’s a reasonable salary saver at the tight end spot. He caught five passes for 68 yards last week, and a performance like that is enough for him to pay off a cheap salary tag.
The Takeaway: Buffalo checks in as sizable underdogs here, so there’s not a lot to get excited about. LeSean McCoy is a risk/reward GPP option at running back, and you can give Charles Clay a peek as a value play. Outside of those two, I’ll pass on this team.
New England Patriots
Quarterback: Tom Brady is Tom Brady. The potential upside is always there, and the Patriots now have their sights set on home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs after their big win over the Steelers. However, Buffalo has allowed a league low 11 touchdown passes this year, and they have intercepted five more passes than that. This is a tough matchup for Tom Brady and company, and while Brady is certainly still a viable DFS option, he’s not a lock for a 300+ yard game here. With Buffalo’s playoff life at stake, they will give it their all in this one. I will be underweight on the New England offense in Week 16, and it starts with Brady. That said, New England’s offense is a well oiled machine, and they have the highest implied team total on the slate. It will be interesting to see where ownership falls with them.
Running Backs: Rex Burkhead suffered a sprained knee in last week’s game, and he will be out for the rest of the regular season. With Mike Gillislee out of the team’s plans at this point, this backfield should largely belong to Dion Lewis and James White. After Burkhead got injured last week, 100% of the team’s running back carries went to Lewis, who logged 80 total yards and a score on 14 touches in the game. This is a very logical spot to target Lewis in DFS, and he is the one New England player that I feel comfortable having a lot of exposure to. His mid-range price tag is very reasonable for the role that he should garner in this important game.
Pass Catchers: Rob Gronkowski is simply a physical mismatch for anyone on a football field. His size and strength overwhelms opposing defenses. After a quiet start last week against the Steelers, Gronkowski finished the day with nine catches for 168 yards. If you have the salary to spend up at tight end, Gronkowski is certainly the #1 overall play at the position. Brandin Cooks has been very quiet lately and is not a cash game play, but there’s tournament upside with him every week. The rest of the pass catching group can be ignored, as Chris Hogan can’t stay on the field while Danny Amendola lacks upside.
The Takeaway: The Patriots have a massive team total, but I will be underweight on this group in Week 16. The team is certainly capable of going off, though, so it’s a risk/reward GPP approach. Dion Lewis is my favorite dollar for dollar play with Rex Burkhead out. Rob Gronkowski remains the top overall play at tight end, while Brady and Cooks are solid options as well.
| Atlanta Falcons | New Orleans Saints | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 53 | 23.75 | -5.5 | 53 | 29.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.7 | 15 | 15 | 8 | Offense | 28.6 | 3 | 6 | 5 | |
| Opp. Defense | 20.1 | 9 | 7 | 18 | Opp. Defense | 20.1 | 9 | 14 | 9 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New Orleans Saints | 12 | 14 | 15 | 2 | Atlanta Falcons | 22 | 11 | 13 | 15 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jones | 126 | 76 | 3 | 1,215 | Thomas | 136 | 94 | 5 | 1,085 | |
| Sanu | 79 | 56 | 5 | 601 | Ginn | 59 | 46 | 3 | 678 | |
| Gabriel | 46 | 32 | 1 | 358 | Coleman | 36 | 23 | 3 | 364 | |
| Hooper | 58 | 43 | 3 | 473 | Hill | 17 | 13 | 1 | 106 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
ATL Matchup Rating: 5.5
NO Matchup Rating: 8.0
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback: This is a rematch of the dud of a Thursday night game that we had a few weeks ago. Once again, we have a Vegas total north of 50 points, even though these teams just played a 20-17 game in Week 14. It has been a disappointing year for Matt Ryan, and he has slipped considerably from his MVP form. Here are his overall numbers over the last two years:
2016 (16 games) = 70% completions, 4,944 yards, 38 TD, 7 INT, 117.1 passer rating
2017 (14 games) = 65% completions, 3,490 yards, 18 TD, 11 INT, 92.0 passer rating
That’s no small dip in production. It has been a bad year for Ryan. The Saints possess a very solid pass defense, and there is absolutely no reason to go here. Ryan is getting by on name value alone, and that’s no reason to consider him in DFS.
Running Backs: Tevin Coleman is still in the concussion protocol, but it looks like he has a better chance to play this week after sitting out on Monday against Tampa Bay. Devonta Freeman is an elite play if Coleman is sidelined for another week, as he logged 194 scrimmage yards and a pair of scores in Monday’s game. Keep an eye on Coleman’s status as we get closer to Sunday, and I will update the article as appropriate.
Pass Catchers: The down year for Matt Ryan has equated to a down year for Julio Jones. The top receiver for Atlanta has just three touchdowns on the year, with one of them coming on a gadget play from Mohamed Sanu. He has caught a whole two touchdowns from Ryan. That’s inexcusable. Jones is almost completely off my radar in a tough matchup against Marshon Lattimore. Assuming Mohamed Sanu is good to go with his knee injury, he would be my preferred play in this game. In either case, you really don’t have to go anywhere here. This passing offense has been one of the biggest fantasy disappointments of the season.
The Takeaway: Don’t be fooled by the overall high total in this game. The Falcons are sizable underdogs, and their offense has underwhelmed all season. My favorite play will be Devonta Freeman if Tevin Coleman can’t play again this week. If Coleman is active, there’s real merit to simply fading this entire group. Keep an eye on Coleman’s status as we get closer to kickoff.
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback: The New Orleans side of this game is definitely the more appealing from a fantasy perspective. Their 29 point implied team total is right there with New England as the highest of the week. The volume hasn’t been there for Drew Brees as in prior years, as the Saints have taken more of a run-focused approach. However, he has been playing better in recent weeks, and Atlanta doesn’t have an elite defense. Brees threw for 271 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the first meeting between these teams, and his floor is still reasonably safe. He’s a top five option at quarterback this week.
Running Backs: With Alvin Kamara healthy again, the one-two punch along with Mark Ingram is rolling again. Both saw twelve carries and a handful of targets last week. Ingram tallied 151 total yards and a pair of scores, while Kamara also found the end zone. The DFS issue is that both remain priced at a premium, and it’s hard to envision that there will be enough production available to support two high-priced running backs. Ingram made value easily last week, but Kamara fell short with a subpar yardage total. It’s also somewhat of a guessing game, as we know the snaps will be split relatively evenly. I have missed the boat on this for much of the year, so you are better off making this decision for yourself. One of them will likely have a big game. If I had to make a pick, I’ll say it’s a Kamara week.
Pass Catchers: Ted Ginn is banged up and the Saints don’t have a tight end worth much of anything, so a good majority of the passing game production flows through Michael Thomas. He has received 34 targets over the last three games, scoring touchdowns in all of them. He is finally stepping up like everyone thought he would at the beginning of the season. He’s the only pass catcher on my radar from this team, and he is a very solid option in all DFS formats for Week 16.
The Takeaway: This is definitely a team we can target in what shakes out as a very important game in the NFC playoff picture. New Orleans has a very high team total, but their primary options all cost a pretty penny for DFS purposes. Drew Brees and Michael Thomas are fine individual options, and you can pair them together in GPPs if you like. The running game should keep rolling, but figuring out who to choose between Ingram and Kamara, as usual, is difficult.
