NFL Grind Down: Week 2 - Page Two

by LeoTPP Last Updated 2015-09-19 01:56:06

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

Detroit Lions						Minnesota Vikings
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Mall of America Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	43	20				-3	43	23
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	28.0	9	13	27		Offense	3.0	32	16	26
Opp. Defense	21.4	18	15	25		Opp. Defense	16.6	3	11	1
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Minnesota Vikings	6	28	2	17		Detroit Lions	26	26	31	22
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Johnson	4	2	0	39		Wallace	7	6	0	63
Tate	8	4	0	24		Johnson	3	2	0	27
Fuller						Wright	4	1	0	27
Ebron	5	4	1	53		Rudolph	7	5	0	53

A garbage time touchdown salvaged a decent scoreline for the Lions last week, something that can’t be said about the Vikings, who were dominated by the 49ers in a discouraging display for Minnesota fans. But with the Vikings returning to their home stadium to host their division rivals in Week 2, Vegas likes them to bounce back in a game with a moderate amount of scoring. So where will that scoring come from?

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Golden Tate (DET, Quad, Probable)

DET Matchup Rating: 4.0
MIN Matchup Rating: 4.0

Detroit Lions

Quarterback: Matthew Stafford (FD $7,700, DK $6,800) didn’t put together his most impressive outing last weekend against the Chargers, helping them get out to a healthy lead before two third-quarter interceptions helped the Chargers come back and seal a victory. His final stat line was incredibly underwhelming, and paled in comparison to Philip Rivers, who had a huge game for San Diego. This week’s matchup doesn’t get any easier, as the Vikings are tougher on opposing quarterbacks from a fantasy perspective and when considering DVOA and Pro Football Focus grades. And despite having a poor Week 1, it wasn’t Colin Kaepernick’s arm that undid the Vikings. Stafford is quite easy to avoid this week.

Running Game: Ameer Abdullah (FD $6,400, DK $4,500) or Joique Bell (FD $6,100, DK $4,600)? The former looked like the same player that dominated the college level a year ago, while the latter stumbled to a weak day as a rusher, and wasn’t heavily involved as a receiver. But this is a team coached by Jim Caldwell, who is boring, traditional and doesn’t always make forward-thinking decisions, and he’s already said Abdullah’s role will stay similar to what we saw in the first game. Neither back dominated the snap count against the Chargers, with neither seeing more than half of the team’s offensive snaps. Minnesota is a team that can be run against (allowed seventh-most fantasy points to opposing backs over past 17 weeks, DVOA against the run ranks 29th over that span), and I’m going to bet on talent and roster Abdullah in a few tournaments, but with the understanding that Bell is going to get touches, which will cut into the rookie’s floor.

Pass Catchers: Calvin Johnson (FD $8,100, DK $8,200) is one of the greatest receivers in NFL history, but he finished tied for third in targets on his team in Week 1. Golden Tate (FD $6,700, DK $6,300) and Eric Ebron (FD $4,800, DK $3,300) both saw more looks, with Ebron getting the only red zone target. It was Johnson’s lowest target total since returning from injury in the middle of last season, and led to his lowest reception total in that timeframe as well. We have to assume he will be the focal point of the offense, and that he’ll draw the coverage of Xavier Rhodes more often than not (as he did in these two teams’ second meeting last season). The former is cause for optimism, and the latter is cause for a slight dose of pessimism. Rhodes has a level of physicality most corners who shadow Johnson don’t have, and considering his relative obscurity in Week 1, I don’t think this is the time to invest in a rebound game. Give me Tate if I have to pick one of these guys, but I’m probably just avoiding the situation altogether.

The Takeaway: The Lions are road underdogs, but their running backs are involved in the passing game, which means your choice of Abdullah or Bell is still in play. Otherwise, there’s nothing to like in this matchup.

Minnesota Vikings

Quarterback: Once again, the Vikings are favorites, and once again, I want to love Teddy Bridgewater (FD $7,000, DK $6,400) as a daily fantasy option. And while I spent a good amount of time last week discussing how the Niners would be weaker against the pass, it didn’t matter, as the Vikings’ passing offense was timid and out of sync. The Lions were great against opposing quarterbacks last year, but gave up a huge game to Philip Rivers in Week 1. I want to believe, as a fan of Bridgewater’s talent, but this week’s matchup just doesn’t sit well with me, even after the results of Week 1. The Minnesota offensive line isn’t good, either, which will likely keep Bridgewater in checkdown mode.

Running Game: I’m not surprised to see Adrian Peterson (FD $9,000, DK $7,700) fail to make an impact in his first professional football game in a year, on the road, against a pretty good defense. And while I expect him to get more involved this week, I still don’t think this is a good spot to buy in on Peterson. He’s by far and away the most likely Viking to find the end zone, but the Lions held the Chargers to 95 yards on 30 carries last weekend and ranked as the definitive top run defense on Football Outsiders last year. There are better situations to target than this still unsettled backfield in a touch matchup.

Pass Catchers: Mike Wallace (FD $6,200, DK $5,400) and Kyle Rudolph (FD $5,100, DK $3,500) led the way for the pass catchers of Minnesota this past week, and the status of their matchups is in flux at the moment. Top cover corner Darius Slay left Thursday’s practice as he continues to fight through an injury he suffered against the Chargers. His absence would be great news for Wallace, otherwise, Rudolph is the only pass catcher from the Vikings I’m interested in, and even then, it’s a mild interest.

The Takeaway: The Vikings are favorites in this matchup, but it’s really hard to feel good about rostering their offensive skill position players. If you trust Vegas and Matthew Stafford’s turnover-prone nature, their defense might be in play, but I’m likely to avoid this matchup altogether for more favorable fantasy situations coming later in this article.

Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears

Arizona Cardinals						Chicago Bears
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Soldier Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-2	45	23.5				2	45	21.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	31.0	5	7	11		Offense	23.0	17	19	2
Opp. Defense	27.6	31	30	19		Opp. Defense	17.6	6	23	13
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Chicago Bears	27	14	28	7		Arizona Cardinals	19	23	23	4
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Fitzgerald	8	6	0	87		Jeffery	11	5	0	78
Floyd	1	1	0	18		Royal	5	1	0	8
Brown	7	4	1	46		Wilson	2	2	0	59
Johnson	2	1	1	55		Bennett	7	5	1	55

The Cardinals jumped out to an early lead against the Saints in Week 1 on their way to a victory, while the Bears crumbled late in a loss to the Packers. That’s generally the direction I expect both of these teams to follow, as the Cardinals seem to have a decent team in place (if they can stay healthy), while the Bears look to be on the verge of a reload or a rebuild. The Cardinals are slim road favorites, which should lead to a competitive game and some good fantasy options.

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Andre Ellington (ARI, Knee, Out), Michael Floyd (ARI, Hand/Fingers, Probable), Alshon Jeffery, (CHI, Calf, Highly Questionable)

ARI Matchup Rating: 6.5
CHI Matchup Rating: 4.0

Arizona Cardinals

Quarterback: Carson Palmer (FD $7,800, DK $6,700) scored more points than any other quarterback on the weekend slate on FanDuel in Week 1, going over 300 yards and throwing for three scores against the Saints. He gets to face a similarly weak pass defense from Chicago this weekend, as the Bears actually were one of only two teams to allow more points to the QB position than the Saints over the last 17 games. The total in this game isn’t overwhelming, but if Palmer can go over 300 yards and throw two or three touchdowns, he’ll return value, and that’s not a tall task at all against the Bears. I’m not sure there’s a ton of upside here, but at his price, he’s easy to fit into a team otherwise loaded up with upside.

Running Game: I would say that a lot hinges on the health of Andre Ellington (FD $7,700, DK $6,100), but I’m not really sure that it does. Ellington won’t be 100% if he plays, and Chris Johnson (FD $5,700, DK $3,800) didn’t really get going on his 10 carries against the Saints. If Ellington is out, that will give plenty of carries to the latter, but I worry that carries alone aren’t going to be enough to return value. The Bears aren’t great on defense, but their Pro Football Focus grades are better than you’d expect against the run. The Cardinals are favorites, but not by much, and they’re on the road in this one. If Ellington is out, Chris Johnson is fine in cash, and David Johnson (FD $6,600, DK $4,200) is worth a tournament bullet if you’re entering plenty of lineups, but otherwise I’ll be loading up on the passing attack for the Cards.

Pass Catchers: The Bears have been very vulnerable against tight ends over the past season-and-a-week, and Darren Fells (FD $4,900, DK $2,500) appears to be a pretty key part of the Arizona offense. I think he’s a very cheap way to fill out a tight end spot missing any obvious plays this weekend. Outside, the Cardinals offer a high-volume, low ceiling veteran in Larry Fitzgerald (FD $5,900, DK $5,400) and an explosive, slightly inconsistent youngster in John Brown (FD $6,200, DK $5,100). Even if Michael Floyd (FD $5,600, DK $4,800) plays, I’m not going to put any trust in a receiver dealing with lingering hand/finger issues who already has a track record of disappearing in good matchups. Fells, Fitzgerald and Brown are all viable in any format.

The Takeaway: Carson Palmer and your preferred options from the pass-catching corps are the plays in this one, with Chris or David Johnson coming into play if Andre Ellington sits out.

Chicago Bears

Quarterback: Jay Cutler (FD $7,200, DK $6,000) started off the season with disappointing effort, completing only 50% of his passes with a touchdown and an interception on his record. He’s very clearly living on borrowed time in Chicago, as he’s just doesn’t seem to put together consistent efforts despite having all the arm talent of a blue chip NFL quarterback. This week, he faces an Arizona defense that in some ways is the “”(player-popup)Jay Cutler”:/players/jay-cutler-11606” of defenses, with plenty of talent but a lack of great numbers and results to show for it. The Cardinals have allowed a healthy amount of points to the quarterback position over the last 17 games, ranking tenth in points allowed and having big games from Nick Foles and Kirk Cousins on their resume last season. Cutler is a tournament option, but reluctantly so.

Running Game: Matt Forte (FD $8,900, DK $7,700) is still really good. The versatile veteran running back gained over 160 yards from scrimmage, scored a touchdown on the ground, and hauled in five passes for a monster day in any scoring format. The Bears ran 15 plays in the red zone in Week 1, and Forte was handed the ball or targeted with a pass on eight of those. He was second on the team in targets, and first in red zone targets. This week, he faces an elite defense against running backs, as the Cardinals have allowed the eighth-fewest points to backs since the start of last season, and have the sixth-ranked run defense according to Football Outsiders, and were third best at defending backs in the passing game last year according to FO’s DVOA. He’s not matchup proof, but the volume will be there. I would love to target him again this week, but his ownership won’t be reflective of his chances at a big game, and so I’ll pass, and hope his salary drops a bit over the next two weeks (at Seattle in Week 3) for a great matchup against the Raiders in Week 4.

Pass Catchers: Alshon Jeffery (FD $8,100, DK $7,500) may not have been 100%, but he still saw 11 targets and dominated the passing game looks for the Bears against the Packers. He’ll likely do the same again against the Cardinals, who will likely call upon Patrick Peterson to follow Jeffery around. Peterson did a pretty good job against Brandin Cooks a week ago, but allowed eight scores in coverage in 2014. Jeffery is a totally different challenge when compared to Cooks, and I would feel confident with Jeffery this weekend assuming we don’t hear any bad news about his health. Martellus Bennett (FD $6,100, DK $4,500) played more snaps than any other skill position player, and while his fantasy day was salvaged by a garbage-time touchdown, he’s a key cog in the Chicago offense and will remain one of the safest tight end plays this season. Eddie Royal (FD $4,800, DK $3,700) saw only five targets of Cutler’s 36 attempts, and one of them was a terrible jump ball in the end zone that should have never been called by a play caller or thrown by a quarterback.

Friday Injury Update: Alshon Jeffery suffered a setback in practice and his status for Sunday is now in doubt. If he doesn’t play, Bennett receives a huge boost, and Royal would become a more viable option. Marquess Wilson would also step into the spotlight a bit, and would be in play.

The Takeaway: Cutler is a tournament option, and Jeffery would be the man to stack with him. Alshon is viable on his own in tournaments, and Bennett is a solid tight end option in all formats against a team that has historically struggled against tight ends.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

New England Patriots						Buffalo Bills
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Ralph Wilson Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		0	45	22.5				0	45	22.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	28.0	9	10	21		Offense	27.0	11	24	5
Opp. Defense	17.9	7	2	11		Opp. Defense	18.4	9	18	8
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Buffalo Bills	23	2	26	15		New England Patriots	25	17	29	16
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Edelman	12	11	0	106		Watkins
Amendola	3	2	0	24		Harvin	5	5	1	88
Dobson	1	1	0	9		Woods	2	2	0	27
Gronkowski	8	5	3	94		Clay	4	4	0	43

Rex Ryan gets another crack at Bill Belichick, this time as the head coach of the Bills, who he led to an impressive Week 1 victory against the Colts. The Patriots dominated the Jets for most of Ryan’s later years in charge in New York, but will a change of scenery reverse the fortunes for Rex? Vegas sees this game as being incredibly close, with the narrowest of spreads favoring the Patriots.

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Brandon LaFell (NEP, Foot, Out), Travaris Cadet (NEP, Hamstring, Probable), LeSean McCoy (BUF, Hamstring, Questionable)

NEP Matchup Rating: 6.0
BUF Matchup Rating: 5.0

New England Patriots

Quarterback: This game is one of the hardest to figure out this weekend, and the problems start with the New England passing game. Tom Brady (FD $8,300, DK $7,500) is obviously talented and capable of putting up a strong fantasy performance against any opponent. But when facing a team that has gaudy numbers according to film watchers, math wizards and fantasy players, how do you decide when a matchup is too tough for even a matchup-proof player? Over the last 17 games, the Bills rank first in Football Outsiders DVOA against the pass, and allowed the second-fewest points to the QB position in fantasy football. Pro Football Focus has ranked their coverage sixth and their pass rush 14th since the start of last year, while top cover corner Stephon Gilmore was in the upper echelon of NFL corners in passer rating against and yards per cover snap.

But the best fantasy performance against them last season? Tom Brady’s four touchdown display in Week 6. Brady has had success against Rex Ryan in the recent past, as well. He’s still Tom Brady. He’s still capable of posting a great fantasy score. And you’re going to want some exposure to him if you’re building multiple lineups, as this game should stay competitive, and Brady will need to make some key plays to help his team win.

Running Game: LeGarrette Blount (FD $6,400, DK $5,000) returns from suspension and gets to face a Buffalo run defense that was very good last season, and that started off the season by holding the Colts to 17 carries for 64 yards, with 20 of those coming from quarterback Andrew Luck. It is assumed that Blount will get a majority of the looks in the running game for New England, a role that has led to mixed results for him since joining the Patriots. He carried the ball 12 times for 78 yards and a score against a tough Lions run defense in 2014, but produced only 10 carries for 23 yards against a stalwart Ravens run defense that same year. He’s hardly a slam dunk, but matchup isn’t really something that will dictate how well Blount performs.

He doesn’t have game script squarely in his favor, and will likely be taken off the field for Dion Lewis (FD $5,200, DK $3,400) quite a bit as the Patriots go toe to toe with the Bills. This may be the bigger factor in the kind of fantasy day Blount has. Lewis will handle passing down duties, and as we saw in Week 1, the Patriots trust him enough to give him the ball on handoffs, even after he fumbled. The game was well in hand at that point, and it’s nearly impossible to predict what the Patriots will do, but I suspect there will be a committee approach in this competitive game, and neither will live up to value, with the exception of Lewis on PPR sites. Even then, it’s a tough matchup, and one I’m likely to just avoid.

Pass Catchers: Rex Ryan isn’t stupid. He knows the threat that Rob Gronkowski (FD $8,300, DK $7,300) poses, and is willing to talk openly about how he needs to focus his defense’s attention on the talented tight end. But looking at his track record against Gronk, there are times when his Jets teams didn’t quite do their job when it came to shutting down the best tight end in the league. Ryan has talked about having three guys responsible for Gronkowski, a move that would certainly open up other areas of the field, but would limit the fantasy upside for the Patriots’ tight end. Gronk didn’t particularly blow up in either game against Rex Ryan’s Jets last year, so maybe he’s figured out a way to slow Gronkowski down?

To further complicate matters, the Bills had an elite tight end defense a year ago, ranking second in Football Outsiders DVOA against the position, and posting the best fantasy points against defense against tight ends since the start of last season. So I’m going to lean toward targeting the receivers for the Patriots, and that starts with Julian Edelman (FD $7,600, DK $6,700). In a competitive game, I’m going to trust his target volume to rack up a safe floor of points, especially on a PPR site. He’s my preferred play for cash games, while I view Gronkowski as a tournament option, one of the rare times you’ll find me recommending him as anything but a core, cash game play.

The Takeaway: The Patriots face a tough task against a talented defense coached by a defensive mastermind. Tom Brady and Julian Edelman are the preferred ways to get a piece of this side of this game, with Dion Lewis and Rob Gronkowski providing tournament options.

Buffalo Bills

Quarterback: It’s easy to think of the Patriots as a great defense, especially if you’re thinking back to last year’s team with Darrelle Revis lining up at corner. The truth is, the Patriots are middle of the road against the pass, allowing just slightly below average fantasy points per game to the quarterback position over the last 17 games, and ranking 14th in DVOA against opponent throws. They’re now Revis-less, and don’t have many impressive names in the back four on defense…

But that’s not where Tyrod Taylor (FD $6,300, DK $6,200) was going to do most of his work, anyway. Taylor threw only 19 passes in Week 1, completing 14 for 195 yards. That’s a solid YPA, but averages don’t net big fantasy points, volume does. Taylor also ran the ball nine times for 41 yards, a bit shy of what most daily players were expecting, but still a part of a decent all-around day for the Virginia Tech product. According to PFF, six of Taylor’s passes were thrown behind the line of scrimmage, and only five were thrown past ten yards. The Bills aren’t going to ask Taylor to air it out, and as such, his floor and ceiling are pretty much the same as last week. If he gets some combination of two touchdowns by air or via the run, and gets 50 or more yards on the ground, he will just need to avoid turnovers and he should hit value. I think he’s a secondary cash game option this weekend at quarterback.

Running Game: The most reliable member of the ground game for Buffalo heading into this weekend was just profiled, as Tyrod Taylor appears to be the healthiest, best runner available for Buffalo. LeSean McCoy (FD $8,100, DK $6,600) left Thursday’s practice with a hamstring injury, and the language being used about him by Rex Ryan seems to imply “he’s unlikely to play but we won’t rule anything out” rather than “he’s probably going to play but we’re just being cautious.” That means rookie Karlos Williams (FD $4,700, DK $3,300) would get the bulk of the carries at running back, after looking pretty impressive during his sporadic appearances in Week 1. Anthony “Boobie” Dixon (FD $4,500, DK $3,000) would then spell Williams, although that’s digging a bit too deep for daily fantasy purposes. Stick with Williams as an “opportunity=points” play against a New England defense that is run-of-the-mill against the run, should McCoy sit out. If McCoy plays? I’m not sure there’s value to be had in this backfield.

Pass Catchers: If Tyrod Taylor throws the ball 19 times (or even 29 times), I’m still not sure there’s a pass catcher to target on this offense. I know that it’s not Sammy Watkins (FD $6,600, DK $6,200), as he barely saw any passes thrown his way, and seemed to be sent down the field quite a bit, running routes Taylor was never going to throw. Malcolm Butler struggled in coverage against Antonio Brown this past week, but I’m not sure there are many corners in the league who can stop Brown from getting on the receiving end of Big Ben’s passes. Butler will either follow Watkins around, or spend time covering both Watkins and Percy Harvin (FD $5,700, DK $4,500). Either way, the targets are too spread out to rely on either player, but Harvin’s ability to get involved on trick plays and on short routes makes him more appealing. (Ideally, Watkins would be working in the screen game, as well, as that’s something he excelled at in college, but until we know he’ll be used in that capacity, I don’t see much value in him.) Charles Clay (FD $4,800, DK $3,400) saw the most snaps of any skill position player on offense, and is as good of a bet as any to be the Bills player on the receiving end of a touchdown pass.

The Takeaway: Tyrod Taylor is in play until his price gets a bit higher, and Karlos Williams is an option if Shady doesn’t suit up, otherwise, it’s a tough job trying to figure out where the production will come from in this balanced, run-first offense.

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals

San Diego Chargers						Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Paul Brown Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	45.5	21.25				-3	45.5	24.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	33.0	3	1	19		Offense	33.0	3	11	8
Opp. Defense	18.6	11	13	16		Opp. Defense	21.8	19	6	26
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Cincinnati Bengals	11	31	10	1		San Diego Chargers	15	30	5	18
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Allen	17	15	0	166		Green	8	5	0	63
Floyd	2	1	0	29		Jones	3	2	0	19
Johnson	6	6	1	82		Sanu	3	2	0	34
Green	6	5	1	74		Eifert	12	9	2	104

The Bengals are home favorites against a San Diego team that bounced back nicely for a win last weekend against the Lions, while Cincy rolled over the Raiders in an easy win. Both teams had leading stars for daily fantasy lineups last weekend, so let’s see if there are any more huge numbers to be found in this matchup.

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Antonio Gates (SD, Suspension, Out)

SD Matchup Rating: 4.0
CIN Matchup Rating: 6.5

San Diego Chargers

Quarterback: The Chargers fell in an early 21-3 hole last weekend before Philip Rivers (FD $8,200, DK $6,700) flipped the switch and helped move the offense up and down the field against a solid Detroit defense a 400-yard day. He leaned heavily on one receiver, but when that receiver is able to catch 15 of 17 targets for 166 yards, why not feed him? Throwing to the best receiver is a concept many NFL teams don’t get, but the Chargers get it, and it’s encouraging to see.

This week, Rivers faces a Bengal defense that has been tough against the pass since the start of last season, ranking 30th in points allowed, and finding themselves sixth in Football Outsiders DVOA against the pass. However, you could cite similar statistics about the Lions, who Rivers carved up last week, so I’ll keep Rivers on my radar as a tournament option, although his price is a bit higher than I’d like in such a tough game.

Running Game: Now that Fred Jackson is buried behind a three-down beast in Seattle, Danny Woodhead (FD $6,200, DK $4,000) is officially the NFL’s most fantasy-friendly back you can get for cheap on a weekly basis. He does all the things we want from a running back: he gets catches, he gets looks in the red zone, and he isn’t run into a brick wall for 20 carries a game and worn down as a featured back. Last week, Woodhead ran the ball 12 times with two scores included, and was targeted in the passing game seven more times. A whopping 19 opportunities for a “part time” running back is worth making note of, especially when it comes in a matchup against a team that allowed the fourth-most points to backs since the start of last year, and ranked as the fourth-easiest matchup for backs in the passing game last year according to DVOA at Football Outsiders. Woodhead got six red zone carries and two red zone targets, easily making him one of the most frequently called upon players in the league inside the opponent’s 20.

Yes, Melvin Gordon (FD $6,500, DK $5,000) had an impressive moment or two, but did fumble, and didn’t get a single opportunity inside the opponent’s 20-yard-line. If you’re looking for a contrarian play in a good matchup, this is it, but he’s contrarian for a reason. You’re banking on a long score or a sudden change in gameplan for him to hit value.

Pass Catchers: The only other players to get looks in the red zone last week for the Chargers were pass catchers, as Keenan Allen (FD $8,200, DK $7,100), Steve Johnson (FD $5,700, DK $4,200) and Ladarius Green (FD $5,600, DK $3,500) all were thrown at when the Chargers were on the doorstep of the opponent’s end zone. Allen had ridiculous volume, something we’ve seen from him on occasion over his three-year career. His 17 targets were a career high, but he has gone into triple digits ten times now in 30 games. A 33% chance of 10 targets is a pretty good investment when you’re looking for opportunity at the receiver position in daily fantasy football. None of Allen’s targets were particularly far down the field, which does make his ceiling more difficult to reach, but on a PPR site, he should be in line for more than a handful of catches, even in a tough matchup.

With Antonio Gates still out, Green and Johnson will continue to help pick up the slack, and veteran Malcom Floyd (FD $5,100, DK $4,400) will likely get in on the act more moving forward as well. Floyd was on the field just as much as Johnson, but just didn’t get the targets. That won’t always be the case. Picking a non-Allen pass catcher in a tough matchup isn’t a challenge I want to undertake this week.

The Takeaway: Danny Woodhead is in play in any format, and a stack of Rivers and Allen may go under the radar, although ownership may be inflated after last week’s strong performance. Stick to tournaments for any passing game exposure.

Cincinnati Bengals

Quarterback: Andy Dalton (FD $6,900, DK $5,800) was one of my preferred plays last week in a good matchup against the Raiders, but a lack of competitiveness from Oakland limited his potential. This week, Dalton gets another lacking pass defense (but not nearly as bad as Oakland’s), but this time in a game that might stay close for more than a quarter or two.

San Diego has allowed the 12th-most points to opposing passers since the start of last year, including big days for Ryan Tannehill, Derek Carr, Carson Palmer and Joe Flacco. They did a decent job against Matthew Stafford in Week 1, and while Dalton and Stafford share a love for underwhelming in big spots, I’m inclined to trust the numbers in this matchup and feature Dalton in all formats again this weekend. He’s a home favorite in what should be a competitive game against a sub-par pass defense that has allowed non-elite passers to have big games over the past year. You can’t ask for much more.

Running Game: The Chargers are actually decent against the run, checking in just below average in points allowed, and right in the middle of the pack in DVOA against rushing plays. But Jeremy Hill (FD $8,400, DK $7,400) as a home favorite is appealing in anything but the toughest of matchups. Hill saw a whopping eight red zone carries in Week 1, and turned two into touchdowns. While he was brought off the field for Giovani Bernard (FD $7,000, DK $4,500) fairly often, Hill was the leading rusher, and will get a majority of the work near the goal line even if his workload between the 20’s is chewed into by the backup running back. Bernard was targeted six times in the passing game and had a few nice runs as well, and is in play on DraftKings where he’s at a discount and his PPR potential adds to his value. But Hill is a cash game play on either site, as he should be used to help the Bengals churn through yards and control the game in what should be a slow but competitive matchup.

Pass Catchers: Tyler Eifert (FD $5,900, DK $4,200) is a name I didn’t pay enough attention to heading into last week’s contests, and it obviously came back to bite me. The tight end drew rave reviews during training camp, and appears to be healthy and ready to make good on his potential. he faces a defense with an elite safety and a good tight end defense, but Eric Weddle and company did allow Eric Ebron into the end zone last week. Rob Gronkowski and Charles Clay both found the end zone against San Diego last year, and Eifert is somewhere between those two in terms of talent, and in terms of his viability this weekend. A.J. Green (FD $8,100, DK $7,500) let down his fantasy owners in Week 1, and will face a defense that kept Calvin Johnson in check in Week 1. No other Bengal receiver saw that much action in the passing game, however, and Green will still see his fair share of targets. He’s a tournament option.

The Takeaway: Andy Dalton and Jeremy Hill are once again core plays for the Bengals, and deciding which one to use will be the challenge for daily gamers. Tyler Eifert is a solid tight end, and A.J. Green has upside for tournaments.

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