NFL Grind Down: Week 2
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get one year of Grinders Incentives for free ($300 value).
Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers
| Houston Texans | Carolina Panthers | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Bank of America Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 40.5 | 18.75 | -3 | 40.5 | 21.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 20.0 | 19 | 6 | 16 | Offense | 20.0 | 19 | 29 | 12 | |
| Opp. Defense | 20.8 | 15 | 3 | 9 | Opp. Defense | 17.3 | 4 | 24 | 14 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Carolina Panthers | 8 | 12 | 17 | Houston Texans | 28 | 20 | 4 | 27 | ||
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Hopkins | 13 | 9 | 2 | 98 | Brown | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 | |
| Shorts | 8 | 4 | 0 | 57 | Ginn | 7 | 2 | 0 | 54 | |
| Washington | 11 | 6 | 0 | 105 | Funchess | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | |
| Graham | Olsen | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | |||||
Unlike last week, when we had quite a few ugly matchups with low totals, we have a nice variety of spreads and over/unders to choose from this week. Unfortunately, we still have some really low projected scoring games, like this one between the Texans and Panthers. But what else would you expect when the team starting Ryan Mallett at QB faces the team starting Ted Ginn at WR?
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Arian Foster (HOU, Groin, Out), Ryan Griffin (HOU, Knee, Out)
HOU Matchup Rating: 3.0
CAR Matchup Rating: 4.5
Houston Texans
Quarterback: Ryan Mallett (FD $6,500, DK $5,100) will start at quarterback for the Texans. Ryan Mallett is not a good quarterback. Despite being seen as a strong candidate to move from a backup role to a starter’s role (and even merit a solid return in a trade), he’s simply not a well-rounded player at the quarterback position. He replaced Brian Hoyer in last week’s game, which may be an upgrade (which says something about Hoyer more than it does Mallett), but he’s not a daily fantasy option. Especially not against a Panthers team that sacked Blake Bortles over and over last week, and picked him off twice.
Running Game: Jonathan Grimes (FD $4,500, DK $3,000) wound up playing the most snaps at running back in Week 1, which some will say is because he’s the better receiving back and the game flow dictated that he’d get more chances as the Texans tried to dig themselves out of an early hole. Others will say it’s because he’s simply better overall compared to Alfred Blue (FD $5,700, DK $3,700). The Panthers don’t have a run defense to be afraid of, but considering the Texans’ status in this game, I’m not looking to put salary into their running backs.
Pass Catchers: DeAndre Hopkins (FD $8,100, DK $7,400) hauled in nine of the 26 completed passes the Texans threw last week, totaling 98 yards and two touchdowns in the process. He saw the most targets, with Nate Washington (FD $4,900, DK $3,600) picking up a large chunk of the leftovers. Hopkins and company will now face a pass defense that allowed some big games to receivers last year, but Josh Norman appears to be settling into his own as a top cover corner. He’s not expected to move around and follow Hopkins, however, as a look through the tape revealed that Norman lined up on the left side of the defensive formation for pretty much the entire game against Jacksonville. That means Houston should be able to get Hopkins away from him and lined up against the more average corners at the other positions and allow him to get plenty of open looks. He’s a cash game play, as his volume is locked in (nine or more targets in eight of his last 11 games). Washington is an interesting punt on DraftKings, but there are better value options available. Ryan Griffin was the leading tight end in terms of snaps and targets, but he’s injured, and that means C.J. Fiedorowicz (FD $4,500, DK $2,500) and Garrett Graham (FD $4,600, DK $2,500) will now be the Texans tight ends to ignore this weekend.
Injury Update: Luke Kuechly has been ruled out for this game, which does boost the matchup for the running game for Houston. If you feel confident that one back will get 15 touches or more, he might be worth a tournament play with this news.
The Takeaway: DeAndre Hopkins is a worthwhile investment, but no one else on this Houston offense is worth the cost of admission. Nate Washington is worth a look on PPR sites, but there won’t be a ton of points to go around in this one, so he’s the deepest of “sleepers.”
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback: In the past, Cam Newton (FD $7,700, DK $7,200) has been fantasy football gold when he’s running the football regularly. Week 1’s performance against the Jaguars featured 14 carries from Newton, but for only 35 yards. He was pedestrian as a passer, picking up only 175 yards and one touchdown while also throwing an interception against a Jacksonville defense that isn’t exactly elite. This week, Newton will take on the Texans, who have good grades in nearly every statistic or grade I consider (fantasy points against, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders) against the pass. They’re also very good against tight ends (usually, last week’s matchup with freak athlete Travis Kelce proving to be an exception), which takes away Newton’s top talent in his pass-catching corps. Only two quarterbacks ran for more than 20 yards against the Texans last year, and none found the end zone, and they picked up where they left off by limiting the usually nimble Alex Smith to nine carries for 15 yards last week. Newton is a special runner, and if you think he’ll break out and pick up some rushing yards as a home favorite, he’s in play, but there’s not a ton of ceiling to reach for here.
Running Game: DeAngelo Williams is gone, so Jonathan Stewart (FD $6,800, DK $5,500) is an RB1 finally, right? He’ll get the snaps he deserves, right? Maybe not. Jonathan Jones of The Observer noted that Ron Rivera thought Stewart got more carries than he expected, a sign that his workload will be limited this season (likely to try to keep the injury-prone back fresh and on the field all season). Combine this likely dip in playing time with a matchup against a defense that’s pretty solid against the run and features the best player in football in the front seven, and I’m not all that into spending daily fantasy salary on Stewart. His prices are appealing, and he’s a home favorite, but I think he’s a secondary option at best.
Pass Catchers: Greg Olsen (FD $6,000, DK $4,900) will face a very strong tight end defense that had a lapse last week against an athletic freak in Kelce, as mentioned above. If you believe that Olsen, who once had the same sort of impressive athletic profile as Kelce, can recapture that glory and get free against the Houston pass defense, he’s in play. I’m just not sure I want to take a chance on a tight end who has nine combined targets in his last three regular season games. There are no other pass catchers in this offense worth targeting against a solid pass defense that ranks eighth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA against the pass over the past 17 weeks of regular season football.
The Takeaway: If you think Greg Olsen is in line for a rebound performance, and that his volume will quickly return to the levels we’ve come to expect, he’s an option at tight end. Otherwise, I’m avoiding this side of this game. The defense is an option against Mallett, who is likely to turn the ball over a couple of times.
San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers
| San Francisco 49ers | Pittsburgh Steelers | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Heinz Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 45 | 19.75 | -5.5 | 45 | 25.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 20.0 | 19 | 31 | 1 | Offense | 21.0 | 18 | 4 | 6 | |
| Opp. Defense | 20.3 | 14 | 20 | 7 | Opp. Defense | 21.3 | 17 | 10 | 12 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 32 | 13 | 13 | 30 | San Francisco 49ers | 5 | 10 | 9 | 12 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Boldin | 5 | 4 | 0 | 36 | Archer | |||||
| Smith | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | Brown | 11 | 9 | 1 | 133 | |
| Ellington | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | Wheaton | 7 | 3 | 0 | 55 | |
| Davis | 6 | 3 | 0 | 47 | Miller | 11 | 8 | 0 | 84 | |
Week 1 went opposite directions for these two teams, as a primetime loss to the Patriots for Pittsburgh was trumped by a primetime win over the Vikings for San Francisco. Vegas predicts that the Steelers will bounce back and win this one in rather convincing fashion, and with a decent amount of points scored along the way.
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Reggie Bush (SF, Calf, Out), Le’Veon Bell (PIT, Suspension, Out), Martavis Bryant (PIT, Suspension, Out)
SF Matchup Rating: 4.0
PIT Matchup Rating: 5.5
San Francisco 49ers
Quarterback: Colin Kaepernick (FD $7,800, DK $6,600) wasn’t called upon to do much in Week 1, and that might be the gameplan this season for the 49ers. Kaepernick has special athletic tools at the quarterback position, but he’s not a guy that coaches will want to lean on for consistent performances as a passer. He tossed 26 attempts for 165 yards in an easy win against Minnesota, and added in seven carries for 41 yards. But how will his numbers change in a game his team is expected to lose? Even in high-scoring losses last year (in December against the Chargers, in September against the Bears), Kap didn’t produce big numbers as a passer. He did, however, chip in nicely as a runner in both games, including a huge performance against the Bolts. I think there’s merit to chasing a big day on the ground for Kaepernick, and hoping he delivers 200 yards and a touchdown through the air against a weak pass defense (ranked last in DVOA over the past year and a week against the pass, projected to be the second-worst overall defense this year by Football Outsiders). He’s a tournament option.
Running Game: I took notes during this past weekend’s action, and again while going through box scores on Tuesday morning. The first thing I wrote up for the 49ers win over the Vikings? Carlos Hyde (FD $7,000, DK $5,100) is special. The Ohio State product was not even close to my radar this past weekend, as I assumed the Vikings would roll to an easy victory and the Niners would be chasing the game. But Minnesota played hesitantly, and the Niners smashed them in the mouth with a powerful rushing attack.
However, it should be noted that most of that success came while running to the left, as the right side of the Niners’ offensive line is a bit of a mess. Of his 26 attempts, Hyde ran off left end 10 times for 76 yards and a touchdown. His runs off of left guard produced a 4 for 43 line with his other rushing score. Lawrence Timmons and Jarvis Jones typically play on the offense’s left at the linebacker positions for the Steelers, and the former had a bad day against New England according to PFF, while the latter performed well against the run. And as a team, Pittsburgh missed 13 tackles against New England, while Hyde caused seven missed tackles of his own. The spread in this game doesn’t suggest Hyde should be an option, but he’s certainly in play, but with the obvious caveat that he’s going to be very popular. This is a disadvantage in tournaments, where I’d be more comfortable playing him. I recommend him as a secondary cash game option if you find yourself with the right amount of salary to fit him in this weekend.
Pass Catchers: Good news, fans of the tight end position. Vernon Davis (FD $5,100, DK $3,000) and Garrett Celek (FD $4,500, DK $2,500) saw 10 of the Niners 26 passes on Monday Night thrown their way. That is bad news for Torrey Smith (FD $5,900, DK $5,400), who was relegated to fourth on the target totem pole. Anquan Boldin (FD $6,400, DK $5,700) remains the top target for Kaepernick, as he’s seen more targets than any other player in a Niners uni since the start of last year, and by a wide margin. If you want to stack Kap with the receiver most likely to catch 10 passes and a touchdown, that’s Boldin. If you’re hoping for three catches and a long touchdown, that’s Smith. Either way, the Steelers will be happy to allow the Niners to complete those passes with their woeful pass defense mentioned above, so pick your poison. I’ll be rolling with Boldin this weekend, and Davis is a punt tight end option as well.
The Takeaway: There’s so much money to be won or lost on this team with all of the uncertainty they face. How will they respond playing on the east coast after a late, late Monday night game? How will they perform as an underdog for the second week in a row despite a dominant showing in Week 1? How will this new coaching staff respond to being down when it comes to calling plays for the offense? For now, I’m going to trust Vegas and assume Kaepernick will be forced to make plays, but I’ll also find a way to get exposure to Hyde in a lineup or two.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterback: Garbage time points count just the same as any other points, and Ben Roethlisberger (FD $8,400, DK $7,200) tossing a touchdown at the very end of a two-score game on Thursday night to open the season is a great reminder to us all that you just can’t turn off the T.V. when sweating your lineups. This weekend, Ben and the Steelers face a Niners defense that kept Teddy Bridgewater in check in Week 1, and that ranked pretty well against the pass a year ago. They have allowed the fourth-fewest points to opposing QBs over the past 17 weeks, and rank third in Football Outsiders DVOA against the pass over that same timeframe.
Ben’s game log is a bit tough to nail down, but he is definitely capable of big numbers in tough matchups, as he showed last year at home against Baltimore and in both meetings with Cincinnati. His offensive line may be the biggest concern, as last year’s seventh-ranked front five in pass blocking efficiency (per PFF) is 24th after the first week of 2015. Aaron Lynch and NaVorro Bowman were a problem for the Vikings, and will likely be a problem for the Steelers as well. That adds up to a tournament-only status for Roethlisberger, and not a great one at that.
Running Game: DeAngelo Williams (FD $7,400, DK $5,300) dominated the carries for the Steelers in Week 1, and will get another shot this week against a run defense that is in the bottom ten in points allowed from a fantasy perspective, and in the top-10 in run defense grade over the last 17 weeks from PFF. The Steelers have some good run blockers along their offensive line, but they’re badly missing Maurkice Pouncey, and will struggle to overwhelm good front sevens without him in the lineup. Game script says we should be able to target Williams, but the matchup says we can’t. With Pouncey out, I’ll agree with the matchup and advocate avoiding this situation. After all, the Steelers have not been afraid to throw the ball over the past couple of seasons…
Pass Catchers: Have you already penciled in Antonio Brown (FD $9,200, DK $8,800) for five catches and 50 yards? (We all know about this streak by now, right?) How about 8 for 106 and a 70% chance of a touchdown, which is his per-game average over the last 19 weeks of football. Darrelle Revis and Richard Sherman could be double covering him and I’d still roster him in DFS. He’s a core play as long as he’s healthy and there’s no ridiculous weather in store that would impact the passing game. Only six different players were targeted for the Steelers in Week 1, with Brown and Heath Miller (FD $5,400, DK $3,500) splitting top honors with 11 each. Darrius Heyward-Bey (FD $4,500, DK $3,300) and Markus Wheaton (FD $5,100, DK $3,800) both saw seven looks, with both being thrown at farther down the field than Brown (per PFF). However, none of these names are encouraging in a tougher matchup, and Miller is the only one I’d consider due to his volume.
The Takeaway: The Steelers are home favorites, but I can’t help but feel like Vegas might have this one wrong. The Niners are a tough matchup, and while Brown is a core play every week, the rest of the Pittsburgh offense can be viewed as GPP fliers at best.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | New Orleans Saints | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Mercedes-Benz Superdome | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 47.5 | 18.75 | -10 | 47.5 | 28.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 14.0 | 25 | 20 | 20 | Offense | 19.0 | 22 | 3 | 32 | |
| Opp. Defense | 24.4 | 25 | 27 | 29 | Opp. Defense | 25.6 | 27 | 29 | 21 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New Orleans Saints | 31 | 24 | 21 | 23 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 30 | 19 | 22 | 20 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Evans | Colston | 7 | 3 | 0 | 29 | |||||
| Jackson | 11 | 4 | 0 | 51 | Cooks | 8 | 4 | 0 | 53 | |
| Murphy | Coleman | 7 | 4 | 1 | 41 | |||||
| Seferian-Jenkins | 7 | 5 | 2 | 110 | Watson | 5 | 3 | 0 | 19 | |
The Buccaneers have not defeated the Saints in the regular season since 2011, when a young Josh Freeman threw for 300 yards at Raymond James Stadium to earn a six-point victory over their division rivals. Since then, New Orleans has gone over 30 points four times against the Bucs, with three games being decided by more than ten points during a six-game winning streak. Vegas expects this streak to continue. So do I.
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Mike Evans (TB, Hamstring, Questionable), C.J. Spiller (NO, Knee, Questionable)
TB Matchup Rating: 4.0
NO Matchup Rating: 8.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback: Jameis Winston (FD $6,600, DK $5,600) threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown on the first drive of his career, continuing an alarming trend of turnovers for a player scouts believed was ready for professional football and had all the traits needed to succeed in the league right away. He’s been careless with the football for the past year of his playing career spanning college and the pros, but he’s going to get every chance to work it out on the field as the number one overall pick. The game script in this one will likely lead to plenty of attempts for Winston, but he was so inefficient in his first game that I don’t want to risk this game being close, and the Tampa Bay quarterback not having any garbage time to boost his fantasy point totals. He’s not in play.
Running Game: Doug Martin (FD $6,700, DK $5,600) looked great in the Bucs’ opening week loss to the Titans, rushing for 52 yards on 11 carries before being essentially taken out of the game for Charles Sims (FD $6,000, DK $3,600) as the Bucs threw the ball to try to catch up with Tennessee. Sims didn’t do anything worth writing home about during his time on the field, as he’s just not a very good running back. Martin will be an option if the Bucs enter a game with a chance of being competitive, but this isn’t that game. Sims gets to face a defense that has allowed big games and big plays to receiving backs over the past two seasons, but I don’t think he has the talent to capitalize.
Pass Catchers: The status of Mike Evans (FD $8,100, DK $7,400) will determine who is usable in this Tampa Bay passing game this weekend. The Saints ranked 30th in the NFL in DVOA against the top opposing WR last season, and have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to wideouts since the start of last year. They’re thin in the secondary, and while top corner Brandon Browner did move around a bit last week, he also earned a negative grade at PFF for his efforts. There’s no one to be concerned with in this defensive backfield, so if Evans goes, he an option as there’s no Buccaneer more likely to find the end zone. Vincent Jackson (FD $7,200, DK $5,500) was one of only two receivers to see four targets in the red zone last weekend (Hopkins was the other), but he caught none of them. The opportunity will be there for him if Evans sits again, and he’d be a worthwhile play in Evans’ absence. Austin Seferian-Jenkins (FD $4,500, DK $4,100) tied his career high in receptions with five, including two touchdowns, but he’s only in play if Evans doesn’t come back. If the Bucs’ top receiver suits up, he’ll get his fair share of targets, which will drain from ASJ, who only saw one look in the red zone. A lot of people will chase the points here, but I’m not convinced it’s the right play.
The Takeaway: Mike Evans is an option as an elite wideout with red zone skills, and Vincent Jackson is a competent replacement should Evans be ruled out. Otherwise, every other play in this matchup is speculative at best thanks for a very low total for a big underdog.
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback: Drew Brees (FD $8,900, DK $7,800) threw plenty of passes in the Saints’ Week 1 loss to the Cardinals, tossing 48 times for 30 completions and 355 yards. He may be on the decline in his career, but the Saints aren’t afraid to let him toss it around despite a sharp drop in talent available in the receiving corps. He may not have to throw all that much this time around, as the Saints are huge favorites against a Bucs team that looks like its on its way to another top-five draft pick, but he’s thrown at least 27 passes in every game since November 2009. The volume is there, and there will be touchdowns scored by the Saints offense against a Buccaneer defense that struggles to defend the pass in every way, especially struggling against play action and routes over the middle of the field. He faces a defense that ranks 26th against the pass over the past 17 weeks according to Football Outsiders, and is in the top ten in points allowed to quarterbacks and receivers over that same span.
In New Orleans home wins by 10 or more points since 2013 (of which there have been eight), Brees has combined for 29 passing touchdowns, one interception, and 2777 yards on 300 attempts, or a 9.26 YPA, which would have led the NFL by .7 last season. He’s a core play in all formats this weekend.
Running Game: Huge home favorites against a crappy team, fire up all of the Mark Ingram (FD $8,000, DK $5,900) right? Not so fast, my friend. The Buccaneers rank eighth in DVOA against the run since the start of last season, and ranked seventh in DVOA against running backs in the passing game last year. They still allowed plenty of points to opposing backs, and Pro Football Focus doesn’t love their performances on defense against opposing runs. In other words, I’m not saying the Bucs will shut down Ingram, but I’m thinking his performance won’t live up to the expectations for most who roster him. The game script is really, really favorable, but the Saints have a capable backup who they love to get involved (Khiry Robinson (FD $4,900, DK $3,000)) and could have dynamic runner C.J. Spiller (FD $6,100, DK $5,000) back this week as well. If you’re okay with 20/75/1 with a handful of receptions from Ingram (and you should be in cash games), then fire him up in your lineups. Especially on DraftKings, where a slight discount and a boost in points for catches will increase his value. But don’t expect a GPP-winning performance.
Pass Catchers: Last weekend, Marcus Mariota threw nine passes over the middle against the Tampa Bay defense. He completed eight for 145 yards and three touchdowns. Terrible safeties and a rookie middle linebacker lead to plenty of room to work over the middle, an area of the field where Drew Brees threw 17 of his passes last weekend (all according to PFF). All three wideouts cut inside for looks in the passing game, meaning Brandin Cooks (FD $7,400, DK $7,000), Marques Colston (FD $5,300, DK $5,400) and Brandon Coleman (FD $5,000, DK $3,300) will all get their chances against the weak underbelly of the Tampa Bay defense. Cooks is an elite play against a group of defensive backs who won’t be able to keep up with his quickness, while Coleman and Cooks were the only ones to see a red zone target, and Coleman converted for a score. Tight end Benjamin Watson (FD $4,500, DK $3,000) ran more pass routes than anyone but Cooks, and is a cheap option if you’re looking to punt the position.
The Takeaway: Brees and Cooks are an elite QB/WR combo this weekend, while Brandon Coleman and Benjamin Watson are in play as well. Mark Ingram should have a safe floor for cash games, but the Bucs do occasionally show a bit of spine against opposing running backs, and he lacks GPP-winning upside. Winston’s turnover-prone nature and the huge spread in this game mean the New Orleans defense is an option as well.