NFL Grind Down: Week 3 - Page Two
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Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins
| Cleveland Browns | Miami Dolphins | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 41.5 | 15.75 | -10 | 41.5 | 25.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 15.0 | 29 | 27 | 8 | Offense | 17.0 | 27 | 11 | 27 | |
| Opp. Defense | 21.5 | 13 | 20 | 31 | Opp. Defense | 27.0 | 25 | 18 | 17 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Miami Dolphins | 24 | 19 | 24 | 24 | Cleveland Browns | 20 | 13 | 23 | 25 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Coleman | 13 | 7 | 2 | 173 | Landry | 23 | 17 | 0 | 196 | |
| Pryor | 17 | 6 | 0 | 100 | Parker | 13 | 8 | 0 | 106 | |
| Gordon | Stills | 9 | 3 | 1 | 55 | |||||
| Barnidge | 7 | 4 | 0 | 37 | Cameron | 10 | 7 | 1 | 55 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Josh McCown (CLE QB) – Out (Shoulder) / Corey Coleman (CLE WR) – Out (Hand) / Joe Haden (CLE CB) – Questionable (Groin) / Arian Foster (MIA RB) – Out (Groin) / DeVante Parker (MIA WR) – Questionable but sounds closer to probable (Hamstring)
CLE Matchup Rating: 3.5
MIA Matchup Rating: 7.0
Cleveland Browns
Quarterback: Reports from last week said that Cody Kessler was nowhere near ready to play, and now he is the starting quarterback for the Browns with both Robert Griffin and Josh McCown injured. He also happens to play for the worst team in the league. Good luck, kid.
Running Backs: The Browns will have no choice but to lean on their running game this week, but I worry about targeting Isaiah Crowell here. Sure, the Browns paid lip service to making him a bellcow running back. Sure, he broke off an 85 yard touchdown last week. However, he still only played 52% of the snaps in a game where the Browns led comfortably in the first half and rarely trailed (though they ended up losing). Throw in the fact that Duke Johnson will play more if the team falls behind, and you really can’t look here.
Pass Catchers: Is Josh Gordon still suspended? Yes. Then I have no interest. Corey Coleman looks good, but I have no confidence in him being able to produce with Kessler under center. The Browns have a laughable team total of just under 16 points this week. UPDATE: Coleman broke his hand in practice on Wednesday.
The Takeaway: Play the Miami defense?
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback: We have to cut the Dolphins some slack for their sluggish start. They opened on the road against a tough Seattle defense and a tough home crowd, and then they had to fly all the way across the country to face the Patriots in another road game. That’s not fair for any team. Ryan Tannehill put up some gaudy numbers last week, but a lot of that was attributable to the Dolphins playing in full catch-up mode in the second half. That won’t be the case this week. I’ll downgrade Tannehill here based on expected low volume of pass attempts. The Dolphins should win this game comfortably and be able to lean on the run game for the most part.
Running Backs: Since the Dolphins fell into a 24-3 halftime hole last week, we didn’t see much of the run game. Tannehill actually led the team in both rushing attempts and yards, piling up a whopping six carries for 35 yards. After being used as a workhorse in the opener, Arian Foster is already hurt. He has a groin injury and might not play this week. That would leave some type of committee approach between Kenyan Drake, Jay Ajayi, and/or Damien Williams. Even in a great matchup, this is too tough to peg in the absence of clarity before roster lock on Sunday.
Pass Catchers: DeVante Parker returned last week and played on virtually every snap, and it appears as though Parker and Jarvis Landry are the key cogs here. Landry caught 10 of 13 targets against New England for 137 yards, while Parker caught 8 of 13 targets for 106 yards. Again, the volume is a concern this week, but both players are viable if this game happens to stay close. Parker is a sneaky value option at $4,900 on DraftKings and $6,200 on FanDuel. Jordan Cameron is in play at tight end, though he isn’t my favorite option.
The Takeaway: Miami should win this game comfortably, but the problem comes with pegging the production. Arian Foster injury means we could see a three-headed committee at running back, and the Dolphins may not have to throw it much in this one. DeVante Parker remains discounted on most sites and is seems to be the best play here.
Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars
| Baltimore Ravens | Jacksonville Jaguars | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | 47 | 24 | 1 | 47 | 23 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 19.0 | 22 | 14 | 23 | Offense | 18.5 | 25 | 5 | 30 | |
| Opp. Defense | 32.5 | 29 | 4 | 26 | Opp. Defense | 13.5 | 4 | 1 | 16 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 27 | 11 | 28 | 9 | Baltimore Ravens | 3 | 22 | 5 | 7 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Smith | 15 | 8 | 0 | 83 | Robinson | 20 | 9 | 0 | 126 | |
| Aiken | 3 | 2 | 0 | 14 | Hurns | 15 | 9 | 0 | 139 | |
| Wallace | 12 | 7 | 3 | 132 | Lee | 11 | 7 | 0 | 97 | |
| Watson | Thomas | 12 | 9 | 1 | 135 | |||||
Notable injuries and suspensions: Elvis Dumervil (BAL LB) – Questionable (Foot) / Chris Ivory (JAX RB) – Questionable but likely to play (Illness)
BAL Matchup Rating: 7.0
JAX Matchup Rating: 5.5
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback: The Ravens came back impressively against the Browns last week, but they have been the beneficiaries of a soft early season schedule. They have had the Bills and Browns in the first two weeks, and they now get to face the Jaguars. Yes, those three teams are a combined 0-6 this year. The Jaguars defense got absolutely shredded by Philip Rivers and a decimated receiving corps last week, so there’s no reason to think Flacco can’t put up numbers this week. This game has a fairly high total of 47 1/2 points, and Flacco is reasonably priced. His upside is somewhat capped most weeks, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him hit a few big plays to Mike Wallace in this one.
Running Backs: The Baltimore backfield remains a messy time-share between Terrance West and Justin Forsett. Neither player ran for more than 42 yards last week, with West averaging 3.8 YPC on 11 totes with Forsett averaging 2.6 YPC on 14 carries. Neither guy was a big factor in the passing game. Let’s move along.
Pass Catchers: It’s still a headache to figure out this unit, too. Neither player has seen more than 70% of the offensive snaps, with Steve Smith at 98, Mike Wallace at 97, Kamar Aiken at 67, and Breshad Perriman at 52. Expect Perriman to be worked in more often as he nears 100% health, too. The uncertainty of this unit renders almost all of them as GPP-only options, with Mike Wallace being the biggest big play threat. Ironically, the safest Baltimore pass catcher right now is Dennis Pitta. He led all NFL tight ends in targets last week, going for a solid 9/102 line in the process. He has always been a good receiving tight end when healthy, with the healthy part being the biggest problem. For $3,400 on DraftKings and $5,000 on FanDuel, he is a great value option at tight end.
The Takeaway: The time share nature of this team makes them impossible to predict on a weekly basis. Dennis Pitta is the most reliable option of the bunch and is a great value play at tight end with the Ravens projected to score some points in this game. Joe Flacco, Mike Wallace, and Steve Smith are reasonable GPP stacks if you want to take a risk/reward approach at QB and WR.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback: Like many, I expected marked improvement out of the Jaguars this year. I was fond of some of their offseason moves on defense, and I figured the offense would make significant strides as Blake Bortles continues to improve. I was not deterred by a close home loss to the Packers in Week 1, but last week’s blowout loss against a banged up San Diego team is a massive cause for concern. The whole team looked out of sync, and it’s tough to see where they go from here. This should be a close game, and Bortles remains affordable on FD and DK. The Ravens can be exploited defensively at times, as Josh McCown moved the ball well against them last week despite being hurt in the second half. Bortles is probably more of a GPP option than a cash game play here.
Running Backs: It’s not entirely his fault, but T.J. Yeldon has been awful in the first two games. With news that Chris Ivory is practicing this week, it would not be a surprise to see Ivory get the start in this game and see more snaps than Yeldon. Ivory will only cost you $5,600 on FanDuel and $3,900 on DraftKings, and he should get almost all the red zone work. This might be as cheap as you can get him for the rest of the year, and I don’t mind the play if we get word that he won’t be limited.
Pass Catchers: Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, and Julius Thomas form a formidable receiving trio on paper, but we have yet to see much in the first two games outside of Thomas. I think he is playing a little over his head right now, while both Robinson and Hurns should be better going forward. I like the idea of stacking one of the Allen’s with Bortles in a GPP lineup this week, as the ownership will be way lower after last week’s dud.
The Takeaway: This should be a close, high-scoring game, but most daily players will be off Jacksonville after last week’s ugly performance. Chris Ivory is an intriguing value play if he ends up suiting up, while some combination of Bortles, Robinson, and/or Hurns can be used in GPP lineups against the Ravens.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
| Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | 48 | 20.25 | -7.5 | 48 | 27.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 27.0 | 12 | 7 | 9 | Offense | 20.5 | 19 | 31 | 19 | |
| Opp. Defense | 20.0 | 10 | 22 | 1 | Opp. Defense | 25.5 | 22 | 24 | 20 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Green Bay Packers | 17 | 2 | 20 | 29 | Detroit Lions | 31 | 18 | 15 | 32 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Tate | 16 | 9 | 0 | 54 | Nelson | 20 | 11 | 2 | 105 | |
| Jones | 21 | 12 | 0 | 203 | Cobb | 15 | 11 | 0 | 99 | |
| Boldin | 10 | 7 | 1 | 83 | Abbrederis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | |
| Ebron | 12 | 9 | 1 | 99 | Rodgers | 5 | 3 | 0 | 47 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: DeAndre Levy (DET LB) – Doubtful (Quadricep) / ZIggy Ansah (DET DE) – Out (Ankle) / Eric Ebron (DET TE) / Questionable (Back) / Sam Shields (GB CB) – Out (Concussion)
DET Matchup Rating: 6.5
GB Matchup Rating: 8.5
Detroit Lions
Quarterback: Matthew Stafford was massively owned in Week 1 and had a huge game against the Colts, which led people to ride the train once again in Week 2. He didn’t make any major mistakes, but he didn’t do anything to “wow” us, either. Expect him to go back to a more normal ownership this week, and some people will shy away from Stafford with the Lions expected to score only 20 points in this game. Stafford does have some intrigue if Sam Shields is missing from the Packers’ secondary again this week. Stefon Diggs ran circles around the rest of them last Sunday night.
Running Backs: Hey, another time share! The Lions will turn to a committee of Theo Riddick and Dwayne Washington in the absence of Ameer Abdullah, with Riddick getting most of the passing down work and Washington getting the red zone looks. I’m not really interested here, as Green Bay has allowed just 78 rushing yards and 1.6 yards per carry through two games. Quietly, the Packers have amassed an elite rush defense. Riddick could be considered in PPR formats, though there are better options in some of the later games.
Pass Catchers: Marvin Jones still looks like the #1 receiver on this team. He’s more explosive than Golden Tate and put up a solid 8/118 line on eleven targets last week. Tate struggled to just two catches for 13 yards on nine targets. Eric Ebron will remain a weekly boom-or-bust option at tight end. Especially if Shields is out, Jones is the guy I am interested in.
The Takeaway: Even though the Lions are only expected to score 20 points in this game, I don’t hate Matthew Stafford as a potential fantasy option. The Lions could be in comeback mode as eight point underdogs, allowing Stafford to rack up yards in the second half. In addition, they shouldn’t do much on the ground with their #1 rusher hurt and the Packers quietly boasting an elite rush defense. Marvin Jones is the best target in the receiving game.
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback: This is a weird time of year where we have to strike a balance between figuring out what things are true trends and what things are simply due to wonky sample size. Over the course of this week, you can read many tweets and articles about how bad Aaron Rodgers has been. For example, it took me five minutes to find:
Aaron Rodgers has been the lowest rated quarterback via Pro Football Focus this year.
and
Blaine Gabbert has more fantasy points than Aaron Rodgers extending back to Week 14 of last season.
Yes, those things are concerning. Rodgers didn’t look like himself against the Vikings, fumbling the ball a few times and consistently over-throwing receivers. I’m not ready to throw in the towel just yet. In fact, you may be able to get Rodgers at a criminally low-owned percentage in GPPs this week. He obviously has plenty of weapons at his disposal, and this is a perfect landing spot against a weak Lions defense at home. If you are a believer in the notion that Rodgers is declining, you can obviously pass. I like the GPP appeal here.
Running Backs: I try not to toot my own horn too often, but I am so far thankful that I brushed aside all of the Eddie Lacy hype in the offseason. He doesn’t look any faster to me. He cobbled up a pedestrian 12/50 line last week, and he gets stopped behind the line often when he can’t get a head of steam going. The good news for him is that James Starks has been equally bad. Perhaps the Green Bay offensive line is a problem. Why did they release Josh Sitton, again?
Pass Catchers: The general consensus is that Darius Slay will be used to cover Jordy Nelson for a good chunk of this game. Slay is good enough that I generally avoid taking receivers that will be facing a lot of his coverage. This should open the door for Randall Cobb to have a good game. You won’t find me recommending stone hands Davante Adams, so look elsewhere if you want that. It’s pretty cut and dry for me: if Slay is on Nelson, Cobb is the guy I want.
SATURDAY UPDATE – With both DeAndre Levy and Ziggy Ansah likely out for the Lions defense, the Green Bay passing game gets a massive upgrade here.
The Takeaway: If you still believe in Aaron Rodgers, fire up the Rodgers-to-Cobb connection here with Darius Slay likely covering Jordy Nelson. If you aren’t a believer in Rodgers, then you better hope the Packers score less than the 28 points they are projected to score as eight point favorites in this one… or you better believe in Eddie Lacy. That’s a tough spot to be in.
Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals
| Denver Broncos | Cincinnati Bengals | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 27.5 | 9 | 28 | 4 | Offense | 19.5 | 20 | 1 | 31 | |
| Opp. Defense | 23.0 | 16 | 10 | 32 | Opp. Defense | 20.0 | 10 | 2 | 24 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 21 | 25 | 9 | 31 | Denver Broncos | 13 | 14 | 2 | 18 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Thomas | 13 | 9 | 0 | 138 | Green | 21 | 14 | 1 | 218 | |
| Sanders | 16 | 8 | 0 | 88 | LaFell | 12 | 7 | 0 | 130 | |
| Fowler | Boyd | 11 | 8 | 0 | 102 | |||||
| Green | 8 | 7 | 0 | 74 | Eifert | |||||
Notable injuries and suspensions: Virgil Green (DEN TE) – Out (Calf) / DeMarcus Ware (DEN LB) – Out (Forearm) / Tyler Eifert (CIN TE) / Doubtful (Ankle)
DEN Matchup Rating: 5.5
CIN Matchup Rating: 3.5
Denver Broncos
Quarterback: If they allowed me to skip one game in the Grind Down, I would skip this game. The Bengals have a decent defensive unit that will only get better when Vontaze Burfict returns. Things will be much different for Trevor Siemian going on the road, and he doesn’t need to do much with C.J. Anderson and an elite defense backing him up. There’s no reason to go here in his first road start.
Running Backs: The aforementioned Anderson would be the only offensive player I look to in this game. He has played 74% of the offensive snaps through two games, though he did see a bit of a dip last week as Devontae Booker saw a few more looks. Anderson still carried the ball 20 times, managing 74 yards and a touchdown to go along with three receptions for 19 yards. The Bengals have allowed the most rushing yards in the league so far this year while allowing 4.2 yards per carry by their opponents. Anderson is definitely in play and is a safe option in all formats.
Pass Catchers: There simply isn’t enough upside with this unit to make them viable. Demaryius Thomas had a 5/90 game last week, and that’s about the ceiling for these guys with Siemian under center. Given this road game against a porous rush defense, expect a run-heavy approach out of the Broncos this week. I won’t be looking at any of their receivers.
The Takeaway: Ignore the pass game. Target the run game. Cincinnati has allowed the most rushing yards in the league so far this season, and this is a great spot for C.J. Anderson to produce.
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback: In case you haven’t noticed, Denver’s defense is pretty darn good. They held Andrew luck to 21-for-40 and 197 yards last week. They scored two defensive touchdowns. They sacked Luck five times. Let’s just move along from Andy Dalton. He’s cheap on DraftKings, but don’t fall for the dangling carrot.
Running Backs: The Bengals are still holding true to form, using Jeremy Hill as their early down and goal line back, with Giovani Bernard as the passing down and hurry-up guy. Since they were in comeback mode last week against the Steelers, Bernard got the heavier dose of snaps. I’m not going to bother with either guy with the Broncos on the schedule.
Pass Catchers: A.J. Green is obviously capable of a big game anytime he takes the field, but do you want to risk playing him against the best cornerback tandem in football? I don’t. They held T.Y. Hilton to four catches for 41 yards last week on 11 targets. There are better options this week.
The Takeaway: Well, don’t play any of the Bengals. The Broncos are a top three defensive unit almost every week unless the matchup is super tough. This doesn’t qualify as one of those instances.
