RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down: Week 3

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.

Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get three-months of Grinders Incentives for free ($75 value).

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INJURIES – I will update all notable injuries/suspensions on Saturday morning after we have final injury reports

Houston Texans at New England Patriots

Houston Texans New England Patriots
Texans Patriots
Vegas Odds Spread Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Spread Total Proj.Pts
-1 40.5 20.75 1 40.5 19.75
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 21.0 17 23 11 Offense 27.0 12 8 7
Opp. Defense 22.5 15 27 9 Opp. Defense 13.0 3 3 12
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
New England Patriots 26 16 29 22 Houston Texans 1 8 6 3
Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards
Hopkins 19 12 2 167 Edelman 18 14 0 142
Strong 1 0 0 0 Amendola 8 7 2 98
Shorts 2 1 0 12 Hogan 10 7 1 119
Fiedorowicz 3 2 0 7 Gronkowski

Notable injuries and suspensions: Jimmy Garoppolo (NE QB) – Out (Shoulder) / Rob Gronkowski (NE TE) – Questionable (Hamstring)

HOU Matchup Rating: 4.5
NE Matchup Rating: 3.5

Houston Texans

Quarterback: If the Patriots are going to win their third consecutive game, it’s going to be done via the strength of their defense. This projects to be the lowest scoring game of the week and has the lowest total on the board. Brock Osweiler is a fine leader for this Houston team, but I have no interest in him in what profiles as a defensive slugfest. The Patriots have allowed a lot of passing yards this year, but the primary reason for that is because the Patriots have been way ahead in both their games, forcing their opponents to throw on almost every down. That won’t be the case this week. There are better options than reaching for a likely over-owned Osweiler with a Thursday start.

Running Backs: It is pretty clear that the Texans are comfortable using Lamar Miller as a workhorse back. He has carried the ball 53 times over the first two games of the season and ranks second in the league (to DeAngelo Williams) in carries. He has chipped in six catches in the passing game as an added bonus, too. He is a safe play based on volume alone. Though I won’t have hardly any exposure to this game in my lineups, especially on the offensive side, Miller is one of the players I would consider playing in a pinch. It’s not a great matchup and Houston is playing on the road, but every down backs are hard to come by in this day and age.

Pass Catchers: The good news for Houston is that we know where the targets are going to go. DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller are the clear top receiving options on this team. Hopkins has 19 targets while Fuller has 18 over the first two games. Both figures rank in the top 10 in the AFC. Despite starting the year with a pair of 100+ yard games, Fuller remains a fantastic bargain on DraftKings at a $4,800 price point. He is still mildly affordable on FanDuel, too. However, based on the price differences on the two sites, DeAndre Hopkins is a far better play on FanDuel. The two receivers are priced $3,800 apart on DraftKings, while they are just $1,400 apart on FanDuel. That is a massive differential that you don’t see too often. I’m not super excited here, but it makes sense to play Fuller on DK and Hopkins on FD.

The Takeaway: Lamar Miller is a safe option simply because he is going to get plenty of volume. The pass catchers are attractive simply because we know where the targets are going in this offense. DeAndre Hopkins is a better play on FanDuel, while Will Fuller is still a massive bargain on DraftKings. Don’t get carried away with Texans exposure, though, as this game doesn’t project to be a shootout.

New England Patriots

Quarterback: Jacoby Brissett has had just four days to prepare for his first NFL action, and he has to go against one of the best defenses in all of football. He could very well be the lowest projected point scorer at the quarterback position this week. Just say no.

Running Backs: Speaking of running backs that have gotten heavy volume, LeGarrette Blount has surprisingly had one of the heaviest workloads in the NFL over the first two weeks. He is not a pass catcher, but he has toted the rock 51 times through two games. I expect the Patriots to go with a run-heavy attack featuring Blount this week, but the concern is what could happen if the Patriots fall behind. Since Blount does absolutely nothing in the passing game, he becomes a risk in that scenario. However, he remains very affordable on almost every site. There is more risk here than it looks like on the surface, especially if the Texans get a lead in this game, but I understand the logic behind the play.

Pass Catchers: I will not be targeting any Patriots pass catchers in this game. Rob Gronkowski will not be at 100% if he plays, and I can’t trust Julian Edelman or Danny Amendola with Brissett under center. There are 31 other teams on the schedule this week, and you don’t need to get cute here.

The Takeaway: Stay away from the New England passing attack against a solid Houston defense. Expect a run-heavy approach out of New England, with LeGarrette Blount making some sense on sites where he remains cheap. You could even consider playing the Houston defensive unit, though it’s generally not intuitive to start a defense playing on the road against the Patriots. This is a good defense against a young quarterback that didn’t even have a full week to prepare.

Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills

Arizona Cardinals Buffalo Bills
Cardinals Bills
Vegas Odds Spread Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Spread Total Proj.Pts
-4.5 47 25.75 4.5 47 21.25
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 30.5 5 8 16 Offense 19.0 22 29 24
Opp. Defense 25.0 21 25 15 Opp. Defense 15.0 5 15 11
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Buffalo Bills 5 9 19 8 Arizona Cardinals 4 6 25 2
Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards
Fitzgerald 21 14 3 162 Watkins 6 4 0 43
Floyd 13 5 1 69 Woods 5 4 0 20
Brown 7 2 0 22 Goodwin
Fells 5 4 0 31 Clay 3 2 0 40

Notable injuries and suspensions: Sammy Watkins (BUF WR) – Questionable and sounds pretty closer to doubtful (Foot) / Charles Clay (BUF TE) – Questionable (Knee)

ARI Matchup Rating: 7.0
BUF Matchup Rating: 4.5

Arizona Cardinals

Quarterback: After flopping in their opener against the Patriots, last week was clearly a “get right” game for the Cardinals, who proceeded to dismantle Tampa Bay in an impressive showing. This is still a very good football team, though I still have my reservations about Carson Palmer ability to produce at an elite level at his advancing age. Given the fact that you can’t really get him on the cheap in DFS, there are simply other options that I would prefer. Buffalo’s secondary got shredded by Ryan Fitzpatrick last week, and this is a chance for them to right the ship at home, too. They aren’t as bad as they showed last week, and this could be a spot where Palmer is over-owned in GPPs. I’ll pass.

Running Backs: I have no idea why Bruce Arians is so harsh on David Johnson. Arians called him out for making “too many mistakes” in last week’s game, as he ran a couple of bad routes and one almost led to an interception. Perhaps it’s a motivational tactic. DJ wasn’t great on the ground last week, but he was the team’s leading receiver with three catches for 98 yards. Don’t worry about the work load distribution, as Chris Johnson got 10 of his 16 carries in the fourth quarter when the game was well out of reach. Johnson is primed to have a fine game as long as this one stays close, and you can hope that last week’s box score leads more people to freak out about the snap counts. As long as this game stays close, David Johnson will be the primary ball carrier.

Pass Catchers: When looking to target Arizona pass catchers, there are a few problems. The first is admittedly personal, in the belief that Carson Palmer will drop off this season. The second is the fact that Arizona simply has many mouths to feed in the passing game. Larry Fitzgerald is still playing well, David Johnson is a great receiver out of the backfield, Michael Floyd is a fine all-around receiver, John Brown can make big plays, and even Jaron Brown got in on the fun with a 51 yard touchdown last week. Daniel Fells had five targets, too. It’s tough to keep everyone happy on a week-to-week basis. That makes this unit far too inconsistent to target anyone for cash games, though the main targets are obviously fine risk/reward plays in a tournament setting. The same logic applies to this matchup against Buffalo.

The Takeaway: With Carson Palmer likely on the decline this year (though he was good last week) and so many receivers to choose from, the passing game is hard to trust in Arizona. That is true even this week, as Buffalo’s secondary should be better than they showed against the Jets. The main target here is David Johnson, who should get a heavy workload after being rested for the majority of the second half in a blowout victory over the Bucs.

Buffalo Bills

Quarterback: Tyrod Taylor righted the ship after an awful performance in the opener against Baltimore, throwing for 297 yards and three touchdowns against the Jets last Thursday night. It wasn’t all roses and violets, though, as 155 of those yards came on two long touchdowns to Marquise Goodwin and Greg Salas. The Salas touchdown was a completely busted coverage. Sammy Watkins is clearly operating at far less than 100%, and that is going to affect Taylor’s week-to-week production in a major way. He is an easy fade in a matchup against an Arizona defense that intercepted Jameis Winston four times a week ago.

Running Backs: We don’t see too many workhorse backs in the NFL these days, but this makes two of them going in the first two games of the week. LeSean McCoy had 15 carries last week against the Jets. The rest of the Buffalo running backs had zero. That’s right. Zero. This is LeSean McCoy backfield. The problem once again is the matchup, as Arizona held Charles Sims (9 carries for 24 yards) and Doug Martin (7 carries for 23 yards) in check in Week 2. Like the aforementioned Lamar Miller, you can consider McCoy based on volume, but this isn’t the greatest matchup.

Pass Catchers: Arizona has a good secondary and I will be avoiding all Buffalo pass catchers this week. Sammy Watkins is the only player with weekly intrigue, and he’s off the table until we can determine if he is anywhere close to 100%. He clearly hasn’t been there over the first two games. Salas and Goodwin are not reliable options, especially against a good Arizona secondary. Robert Woods has just five catches through two games. This isn’t an ideal spot.

The Takeaway: Don’t mess with the passing game against a good Arizona defense. LeSean McCoy is only an option because he is the unquestioned lead back on the team. The Arizona defense is definitely in play here, even though they are playing on the road.

Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans

Oakland Raiders Tennessee Titans
Raiders Titans
Vegas Odds Spread Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Spread Total Proj.Pts
1.5 47 22.75 -1.5 47 24.25
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 31.5 3 6 2 Offense 16.0 28 22 13
Opp. Defense 20.0 10 14 14 Opp. Defense 34.5 31 32 21
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Tennessee Titans 9 1 14 13 Oakland Raiders 32 23 32 27
Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards
Cooper 20 11 0 208 Matthews 10 7 0 66
Crabtree 14 11 1 118 Sharpe 18 11 0 109
Roberts 10 5 1 44 Wright
Smith 4 4 0 24 Walker 11 9 1 125

Notable injuries and suspensions: Delanie Walker (TEN TE) – Questionable (Hamstring)

OAK Matchup Rating: 6.5
TEN Matchup Rating: 7.5

Oakland Raiders

Quarterback: The much-hyped Raiders offense is living up to expectations, as they are leading the NFL with 470 total yards per game through two weeks. Derek Carr is humming right along, and he is coming off a sparkling 34-of-45 performance with 299 yards and three touchdowns in a home loss to the Falcons. He can sling it with the best of them these days, and his price remains a bit short of the elite tier on almost every site. This is a fairly difficult matchup against a Titans defense that has looked good through two weeks. Minnesota’s two touchdowns in the opener were both of the defensive variety, and the Titans held Matthew Stafford in check last week. I am neutral on Carr in this one.

Running Backs: Right now, the Oakland backfield gets a big fat “no” from me. It’s basically an even time share between Latavius Murray (eight carries last week), DeAndre Washington (seven carries last week), and Jalen Richard (six carries last week). Good luck figuring out who is going to be the top performer on a week-to-week basis.

Pass Catchers: A lot of pundits wrote off Michael Crabtree this year. His red zone targets were bound to decline, they said. Amari Cooper is such a freak that he will start to get them, they said. Well, the beat goes on as Crabtree once again caught a red zone target for a touchdown last week. Cooper had a long touchdown catch called back via penalty last week, though, and he has been burning defensive backs over the first two games. I’ll be stubborn and say Cooper is still the guy I want. I will avoid Crabtree in a difficult matchup.

The Takeaway: The Raiders are only projected to score 22.75 points this week, which is below their totals from the first few weeks. I expect them to be over-owned in what is their toughest matchup to date. You can consider Derek Carr and Amari Cooper, though my exposure to them will be limited in this one. The backfield is a mess right now, so that is an easy spot to avoid.

Tennessee Titans

Quarterback: The Colts have given up the most points in the league through two weeks, but the Raiders are next in line and have allowed the most total yards. Despite making some strides in the offseason, it appears as though the Raiders don’t have an above average defensive unit just yet. Even though they have played two good offenses, it’s not a good sign when you are allowing over 500 yards per game. This is a decent spot to take a shot on Marcus Mariota, even though he hasn’t put up great numbers in the season’s first two weeks. You can get a Mariota/Sharpe or Mariota/Walker combination at a relative discount on most sites, and it will be interesting to see how many people take this route. Mariota is usually less than 6-8% owned, though I do expect him to be on the higher end of that this week.

Running Backs: This is a tricky spot for DeMarco Murray. His snap count decreased from 75% in the opener to 61% last week, and the Titans are starting to use Derrick Henry just a little bit more. The good news for Murray is that he has played well. He averaged 7.4 yards per carry last week and caught all seven of his targets in the passing game. Murray is clearly the preferred play on full PPR sites like DraftKings, and this is a great matchup. I don’t have the stones to take a shot on Henry as long as he is only getting about 30-40% of the snaps, but this is an interesting angle to take in a GPP with Henry still available at bargain prices across the industry.

Pass Catchers: Tajae Sharpe is clearly the #1 wide receiver in this Tennessee offense. He has been on the field for 131 snaps through two games, while the next closest wideout is Rishard Matthews at 71 snaps. Harry Douglas and Andre Johnson are at 56 and 39, respectively. Sharpe is the guy you want here, and he remains far too cheap on most sites. Delanie Walker is also an elite tight end option that seems a bit too cheap on DraftKings. Both Sharpe and Walker are excellent plays in a plus matchup.

The Takeaway: The Titans have one of the higher team totals of the week in a favorable matchup against an Oakland defense that is allowing over 500 yards per game through two weeks. DeMarco Murray is still an intriguing play on full PPR sites, though his snap count dip last week is a minor concern. Marcus Mariota, Tajae Sharpe, and Delanie Walker all get the green light in this one.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants

Washington Redskins New York Giants
Redskins Giants
Vegas Odds Spread Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Spread Total Proj.Pts
4.5 47 21.25 -4.5 47 25.75
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 19.5 20 3 25 Offense 18.0 26 11 20
Opp. Defense 16.0 8 13 4 Opp. Defense 32.5 29 21 28
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
New York Giants 6 7 11 16 Washington Redskins 25 31 26 14
Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards
Jackson 15 9 0 142 Beckham 19 12 0 159
Garcon 13 8 0 76 Shepard 12 11 1 160
Crowder 18 12 1 97 Cruz 12 8 1 125
Reed 18 12 0 134 Donnell 7 5 1 39

Notable injuries and suspensions: Rashad Jennings (NYG RB) – Questionable (Thumb)

WAS Matchup Rating: 7.0
NYG Matchup Rating: 8.5

Washington Redskins

Quarterback: The Redskins have been one of the biggest disappointments in the league through two weeks, as Kirk Cousins has missed some reads and made some mistakes in the passing game. He did throw for 364 yards last week and has some gaudy overall numbers, and he is likely going to be able to put up good fantasy numbers based on volume alone. This team isn’t going to run the ball a whole lot. I am a believer in the Giants defense, though, and won’t be targeting Cousins this week. The Giants made Drew Brees look pedestrian last week. Cousins could very well top 300 yards passing in this one, and he might be worth a look in GPPs if the game flow happens to break to where the Redskins fall behind.

Running Backs: As I just mentioned, the Redskins aren’t going to run the ball a whole lot. This does seem like Matt Jones backfield now, as he got 13 carries to just two for Chris Thompson last week. However, Thompson is still the primary passing down back, and he will play more in weeks where the Redskins fall behind (which could be this week). You can easily leave this unit alone against a Giants defense that has allowed just 142 rushing yards and 3.3 yards per carry through the season’s first two weeks.

Pass Catchers: Volume is going to help the production for the Washington wide receivers, but they rotate players more often than some other teams. No wideout has seen more than 79% of the offensive snaps, though DeSean Jackson, Jamison Crowder, and Pierre Garcon are all in the 68-79% range. Jordan Reed was expected to be one of the top three tight ends in fantasy football this year, though he is off to a slow start. I am neutral on this unit as a whole this week against an under-rated Giants defense that has the potential to be a top ten squad this year.

The Takeaway: I am not super high on the Redskins here. You can consider Kirk Cousins and a pass catcher or two simply based on volume, especially if the Redskins fall behind. They are going to be one of the most pass-heavy teams in the league this year. Absent that, I don’t have much interest in this team on the road.

New York Giants

Quarterback: We all want to jump on Eli Manning for not throwing a touchdown pass last week against the Saints, but let’s be honest here. Manning actually played pretty well in the game. He completed 32-of-41 passes and threw for 368 yards in the game. He didn’t throw an interception. The main thing that kept the Giants out of the end zone was three lost fumbles — one by Manning, one by Shane Vereen, and one by Victor Cruz. This is another favorable matchup for Eli, and he can certainly be used again this week. Expect his ownership to be down after so many folks were spurned a week ago.

Running Backs: Ugh, I really don’t know what to do here. The Giants promised to scrap their three-man committee this year, and they have at least done that. The problem is that Rashad Jennings has played 66 snaps while Shane Vereen has played 64. Vereen is obviously the threat in the passing game, while Jennings is likely to get most of the goal line work. We weren’t able to see that last week since the Giants didn’t score a single offensive touchdown. I would lean toward using Vereen in PPR settings with Jennings in non-PPR or half-PPR settings. However, the snap distribution leaves both of them as somewhat undesirable options.

Pass Catchers: The Giants are going almost exclusively with three-wide sets this year. Odell Beckham has played 99.24% of the offensive snaps. Sterling Shepard sits at 94.81%, while Victor Cruz is at 91.85%. All three of them are clearly going to get their looks, and it is a surprise to see Cruz playing at nearly full health. Shepard is still way too cheap on many sites after he hauled in all eight of his targets for 117 yards last week. He’s my favorite play of the group on the dollar, though Beckham obviously brings upside to the table every week. After staying that Josh Norman will “stick to a side,” the Redskins are now saying that they will use him to shadow Beckham this week unless Beckham lines up in the slot. That’s a minor concern, for sure.

The Takeaway: Don’t hesitate to target this offense. They will get over-looked after letting a lot of people down last week. Eli Manning and his top three receivers are all in play, as is the running game — though that is more risky with Shane Vereen and Rashad Jennings in a virtual 50/50 timeshare.


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About the Author

stlcardinals84
Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84)

Justin Van Zuiden (aka stlcardinals84) is a longtime RotoGrinders contributor and show host. He’s appeared in numerous Live Finals, has logged countless 6-figure wins in a host of different sports (including 5 in PGA), and is a former DFS Writer of the Year Nominee by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. You can find Justin’s ‘Covering The Bases’ series on weekends during the MLB season. He is also a main contributor of sports betting picks at our sister site, ScoresAndOdds, and is a co-host on the RotoGrinders Game Night show on SiriusXM. Follow Justin on Twitter – @stlcardinals84