RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down: Week 8
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code.
INJURIES – I will update all notable injuries/suspensions on Saturday morning after we have final injury reports
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
| Jacksonville Jaguars | Tennessee Titans | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | 43.5 | 20 | -3.5 | 43.5 | 23.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 19.5 | 24 | 17 | 30 | Offense | 20.9 | 20 | 27 | 3 | |
| Opp. Defense | 23.0 | 17 | 19 | 6 | Opp. Defense | 26.7 | 26 | 6 | 18 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Tennessee Titans | 11 | 8 | 15 | 22 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 17 | 16 | 27 | 3 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Robinson | 55 | 26 | 3 | 296 | Matthews | 34 | 23 | 2 | 319 | |
| Hurns | 45 | 24 | 1 | 345 | Sharpe | 45 | 22 | 0 | 248 | |
| Lee | 38 | 29 | 0 | 337 | Wright | 17 | 13 | 1 | 168 | |
| Thomas | 28 | 16 | 2 | 196 | Walker | 37 | 24 | 3 | 330 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Julius Thomas (JAX TE) – Questionable (Ankle) / Tajae Sharpe (TEN WR) – Questionable (Knee)
JAX Matchup Rating: 5.0
TEN Matchup Rating: 5.5
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback: I’m done making excuses for Blake Bortles. A 59% completion rate to go along with nine touchdowns and nine interceptions in six games simply isn’t going to get the job done, especially in the fantasy football world. His throwing motion seems off, the offensive line has had problems, and Jacksonville doesn’t have a running game. The last few National TV NFL games have been awful, and this one isn’t going to be much better. This matchup isn’t awful, but we haven’t seen Bortles take advantage of good matchups against the Colts, Bears, and Raiders over the last three games.
Running Backs: Jacksonville is averaging just 77 rush yards per game as a team, and Tennessee allows just 87 rush yards per game. In addition, this is still a time share with T.J. Yeldon and Chris Ivory. This is one of the easiest “avoid” spots of the week.
Pass Catchers: We keep waiting for Allen Robinson to break out, and he hit a new low with two catches for nine yards against the Raiders. Marqise Lee has been the big surprise of late, as he has played on 70+% of the snaps for three straight games now, with lines of 6/61 and 7/107 in the last two. Julius Thomas has not practiced so far this week and might sit out with the short week, so expect more three receiver sets with Robinson, Lee, and Allen Hurns. Lee is still very cheap and can be used as a value play, while Robinson possesses the most upside. All three will continue to be inconsistent, though, until we see improvement from Bortles.
The Takeaway: This isn’t a great spot, and the Jaguars only have a team total of 20 points in this game. The Thursday game feels like a prime “fade Thursday with over-ownership” night, and I don’t mind the Tennessee defense in any format given Bortles’ turnover problems.
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback: Marcus Mariota has looked better in recent weeks, and he is coming off a 232 yard, two touchdown performance against the Colts, but he didn’t provide his usual upside with his legs and he fumbled twice, losing one of them in the process. Jacksonville is quietly establishing a very good pass defense, and they rank 8th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA against the pass this season. This is not the week to take a chance on Mariota.
Running Backs: If you look to one offensive player in this game, DeMarco Murray is probably the guy you want. He continues to significantly out-snap Derrick Henry (by a whopping 70 to 6 margin last week) and is one of the more reliable workhorses in the league right now. I do worry somewhat about his workload on a short week, but the matchup is fantastic, he has a nice floor in this offense with his usage, and the upside is there. He won’t come cheap, but he’s a top four running back this week and is the best offensive option in this game.
Pass Catchers: The wide receiver situation remains a mess. Kendall Wright had one fluke game. Andre Johnson is 50 years old. Tajae Sharpe has fallen off a cliff after his hot start. The most consistent guy is probably Rishard Matthews, and he doesn’t play a reliable percentage of snaps. As always, if you want one guy here, it’s probably Delanie Walker. Unfortunately, he is over-priced at a tight end position that is absolutely loaded at the top this week. I’ll pass on this whole unit against that good Jaguars pass defense.
The Takeaway: Jacksonville’s defensive weakness happens to mesh with Tennessee’s offensive strength. DeMarco Murray is the guy you want here, and you probably won’t be upset if you fade everyone else. Tennessee is a four point home favorite, and hopefully the game flow will go according to plan. That will mean a bigger workload for Murray, and he is the best bet to find the end zone, too.
Washington Redskins at Cincinnati Bengals
| Washington Redskins | Cincinnati Bengals | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 46 | 21.5 | -3 | 46 | 24.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.7 | 15 | 6 | 15 | Offense | 20.0 | 23 | 4 | 10 | |
| Opp. Defense | 23.1 | 18 | 11 | 24 | Opp. Defense | 23.1 | 18 | 16 | 26 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 28 | 22 | 4 | 28 | Washington Redskins | 9 | 24 | 12 | 13 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jackson | 49 | 27 | 1 | 368 | Green | 70 | 50 | 3 | 775 | |
| Garcon | 48 | 30 | 1 | 329 | LaFell | 42 | 27 | 4 | 372 | |
| Crowder | 44 | 31 | 3 | 391 | Boyd | 31 | 20 | 0 | 245 | |
| Reed | 46 | 33 | 2 | 316 | Eifert | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Matt Jones (WAS RB) – Out (Knee) / Vernon Davis (WAS TE) – Questionable (Groin) / Jamison Crowder (WAS WR) – Questionable (Groin) / Jordan Reed (WAS TE) – Questionable but expected to play (Concussion)
WAS Matchup Rating: 6.5
CIN Matchup Rating: 7.0
Washington Redskins
Quarterback: Cincinnati’s defense has been surprisingly average this season, even though they have Vontaze Burfict back from suspension. They rank in the bottom third of the league in DVOA against both the run and the pass, so we don’t need to actively avoid players against them. Kirk Cousins didn’t have a great game against Detroit last week by fantasy players’ standards, but he did complete 30 of 39 passes, he eclipsed 300 yards, and he didn’t throw a pick. A lost fumble and only one touchdown was the disappointing part of his line. His price tag remains favorable, and Washington clearly doesn’t mind letting him chuck the ball 40 times. He’s an under-rated GPP option against an over-rated defense.
Running Backs: I tried to warn people about using Matt Jones last week, as he was the most obvious trap on the board. Chris Thompson saw more snaps than Jones for the second consecutive week, and despite being known as the passing-down guy, Thompson was actually the more effective runner against the Lions. In any case, this remains a time share that I really have no interest in. The passing attack is the safer spot with these Redskins.
Pass Catchers: As was the case last week, the status of Jordan Reed plays a huge factor in figuring out Washington’s pass catching situation. A “naked Cousins” lineup (playing Cousins without any of his receivers) actually won the Millionaire Maker on DraftKings, and I don’t think that is a bad strategy even in a GPP given Washington’s ability to spread the ball around to different receivers. Jamison Crowder seems to be coming on as the #1 wide receiver option, as DeSean Jackson has battled injuries all year and Pierre Garcon lacks any sort of burst. If Reed doesn’t play this week, we can once again consider Vernon Davis as a value TE option. He is coming off a solid 6/79 game against Detroit and remains very cheap.
The Takeaway: Don’t bother with the running game once again this week. Kirk Cousins remains a viable value target at quarterback, while Jamison Crowder seems a little too cheap on most sites given his expanding role in the offense. He eclipsed 100 receiving yards on nine targets against Detroit a week ago. If Jordan Reed remains sidelined, Vernon Davis is a fine value play at tight end.
FRIDAY UPDATE – Matt Jones has been ruled out for this week, which gives Chris Thompson some intrigue. However, Rob Kelley will likely slide into Jones’ usual role. This is still a spot I am avoiding. With Jamison Crowder banged up and Jordan Reed likely to return, this team is a mess to figure out. Kirk Cousins is still the best overall target.
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback: Andy Dalton eclipsed 300 passing yards for the third time this year against the Browns, but he has yet to throw more than two touchdowns in a game. He’s a fine low-end cash game option, but I don’t love the GPP upside. Washington is generally easier to exploit on the ground than via the air.
Running Backs: Jeremy Hill looked explosive last week, scampering for 168 yards on just nine carries, with a 74 yard touchdown included in his totals. He continues to see fewer snaps than Giovani Bernard, and that is even more concerning now. The Bengals played for much of last week’s game with a 10-14 point lead, so that would seem to be a “Hill game” moreso than a “Bernard game.” Bernard was effective in his own right, with 80 rushing yards and a touchdown of his own. If an injury were to occur, there would be major value here. As it stands, it’s hard to trust either of these guys, even against Washington’s 31st ranked DVOA against the run. Bernard gains some value on DK with the full PPR scoring format, and he seems to be the 60/40 time share lead guy here. If you go anywhere, that would be the spot.
Pass Catchers: Brandon LaFell continues to get bailed out by touchdowns, as he had four catches for 83 yards and a score last week despite seeing only five targets. His value will plummet as Tyler Eifert gets back to full strength. Eifert played limited snaps in his first game, and he should be more up to speed for this one. The obvious target in Cincinnati is A.J. Green, who had 169 receiving yards and a ridiculous Hail Mary touchdown catch against Cleveland. I don’t love paying up for him with other guys in better spots this week, but I certainly wouldn’t talk you out of it.
The Takeaway: I won’t have a lot of Cincinnati exposure this week. I am pretty neutral on Andy Dalton and his receivers, as A.J. Green doesn’t come at a discount. Washington is more vulnerable against the run, and it’s tough to target the time share in Cincinnati. Jeremy Hill is the better runner but is seeing fewer snaps. Giovani Bernard has PPR appeal, especially on sites where he is still discounted nicely.
Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts
| Kansas City Chiefs | Indianapolis Colts | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 50 | 26.25 | 2.5 | 50 | 23.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.7 | 17 | 19 | 18 | Offense | 27.7 | 4 | 3 | 22 | |
| Opp. Defense | 28.6 | 28 | 25 | 25 | Opp. Defense | 20.5 | 11 | 18 | 21 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 25 | 28 | 6 | 25 | Kansas City Chiefs | 15 | 19 | 31 | 8 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Maclin | 45 | 27 | 1 | 333 | Hilton | 76 | 45 | 4 | 689 | |
| Conley | 29 | 20 | 0 | 227 | Dorsett | 26 | 13 | 1 | 253 | |
| Wilson | 18 | 12 | 0 | 94 | Rogers | 19 | 11 | 0 | 156 | |
| Kelce | 35 | 27 | 2 | 276 | Allen | 27 | 18 | 2 | 192 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Jamaal Charles (KC RB) – Out (Knee) / Dwayne Allen (IND TE) – Out (Ankle) / Chester Rogers (IND WR) – Out (Hamstring) / Donte Moncrief (IND WR) – Questionable (Shoulder)
KC Matchup Rating: 8.0
IND Matchup Rating: 6.0
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback: For the second straight week, the Chiefs have one of the highest team totals on the board. Alex Smith was once again “game manager” against the Saints, attempting just 24 passes while throwing for 214 yards and a pair of scores. In back-to-back good matchups the past two weeks, Smith has attempted a total of just 46 passes and has not tapped 225 passing yards in either of them. Even in the best of matchups, there’s too little upside here.
Running Backs: Jamaal Charles is obviously not healthy and saw just one carry last week. This is Spencer Ware world, and we are just happy to be living in it. Ware had a pedestrian 77 rushing yards last week, but he still averaged a respectable 4.5 yards per carry and scored on a 46 yard reception. His pass-catching improvement has been a great story in 2016. He remains about $600-$800 under-priced on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and the Colts rank dead last in the NFL in DVOA against the rush this year. Yes, they rank worse than even the 49ers according to the metrics. Fire up Ware as an elite running back option in all formats this week.
Pass Catchers: Jeremy Maclin continues to disappoint this season, and it seems like five catches for 75 yards is pretty much his ceiling. Kansas City simply doesn’t throw the ball enough. In addition, Alex Smith 17 completions last week came to ten different receivers. That is amazing. Outside of Maclin, nobody caught more than two passes. This is not a spot we want to target. Even Travis Kelce is pretty much out of play at this point, especially given the depth at the tight end spot in fantasy football this season.
The Takeaway: Kansas City has a high team total once again, and Spencer Ware is the guy we want to target. He remains too cheap and should see 80+% of the snaps with Jamaal Charles unable to get healthy and Charcandrick West proving to be ineffective. The passing game is too inconsistent to target these days. Expect a heavy dose of Ware against a bottom feeding rush defense.
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback: For perhaps the first time all season, the Indianapolis offense clicked on all cylinders against the Titans. Andrew Luck threw for 353 yards and three scores. He only got sacked twice, which is a massive victory considering the struggles the Colts have had on the offensive line. T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle had big games. This is a tough test against a solid Chiefs pass defense, and Luck doesn’t come at enough of a discount to entice me to take him over other high end quarterbacks. This game has shootout potential, and I don’t mind using Luck in GPPs, where I would certainly pair him with one of his receiving options.
Running Backs: A week after getting the first 100 yard rushing game for a Colts’ RB in three and a half seasons, Frank Gore went back to his traditional line of 17 carries for 61 yards on Sunday. He salvaged his day with five receptions and a touchdown grab, but that probably won’t happen again all season. You can’t win fantasy contests with running backs that generally gain 60-80 yards and maybe score once. As usual, I have no interest in Old Man Gore.
Pass Catchers: Phillip Dorsett and Donte Moncrief are both “trending in the right direction” according to Chuck Pagano, and it seems likely that both will play in some capacity this week. That will remove any appeal that Chester Rogers may have had. Dorsett was not a fantasy factor over the last month, and I have no interest there. Moncrief could be a sneaky cheap option, especially on sites that have depressed his price substantially, assuming he gets full clearance. T.Y. Hilton is still the target monster in this offense, and he is in play for any format. Jack Doyle is coming into his own as a nice receiving tight end, and he is a great value once again if Dwayne Allen is unable to suit up.
The Takeaway: Check back for injury updates on Moncrief, Dorsett, and Allen as we get closer to the weekend. For now, T.Y. Hilton is your safe, stable target at wide receiver. Andrew Luck is an interesting, likely low-owned GPP target at quarterback, though I wouldn’t use him in cash games this week.
FRIDAY UPDATE – Allen is out. Both Moncrief and Dorsett will play. I wouldn’t play Dorsett, but Moncrief is a sleeper in GPPs this weekend. Jack Doyle will be a popular value TE play, but the Chiefs are pretty good against the position.
Oakland Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| Oakland Raiders | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 49.5 | 24 | -1.5 | 49.5 | 25.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 26.4 | 8 | 18 | 13 | Offense | 21.3 | 19 | 15 | 11 | |
| Opp. Defense | 26.5 | 25 | 13 | 20 | Opp. Defense | 25.6 | 22 | 32 | 28 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 16 | 25 | 11 | 9 | Oakland Raiders | 27 | 23 | 28 | 26 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Cooper | 65 | 40 | 1 | 614 | Evans | 73 | 40 | 6 | 545 | |
| Crabtree | 59 | 39 | 6 | 461 | Humphries | 34 | 22 | 0 | 233 | |
| Roberts | 37 | 19 | 3 | 176 | Shepard | 10 | 8 | 1 | 99 | |
| Walford | 23 | 16 | 1 | 155 | Brate | 32 | 20 | 2 | 226 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Doug Martin (TB RB) – Out (Hamstring)
OAK Matchup Rating: 8.0
TB Matchup Rating: 8.0
Oakland Raiders
Quarterback: At first glance, the Vegas total in this game seems low to me. At minimum, I would have expected this game to be higher than the Chiefs/Colts game I just discussed. In any case, there is plenty of shootout potential here. Derek Carr has disappointed a bit in the last two games, but those came against very good pass defenses (KC and JAX are both ranked in the top ten in DVOA against the pass), and the Raiders were playing with a lead last week. This is a great spot for Carr to get back on track, and we can take advantage of a now discounted price tag. He’s a steal at $5,900 on DraftKings.
Running Backs: Latavius Murray returned and surprisingly was the unquestioned lead back against the Jaguars last week. He was ineffective, as usual, rushing for just 3.3 yards per carry in the contest. He did score twice, and he has touchdown upside if he keeps getting 18-22 touches. That pretty much makes him a poor man’s Melvin Gordon. I’m not that interested in him, but he’s in play as a total GPP punt if you want to take the risk on the workload. Tampa’s rush defense has fallen off a bit over the last three or four weeks, and they now rank 15th in DVOA against the run.
Pass Catchers: Hey, look, Michael Crabtree scored another touchdown. He took advantage of Jacksonville rolling its best coverage toward Amari Cooper, leading to a solid 8/96/1 line on 11 targets for the Crab last week. Cooper was held to four catches for 29 yards. Both are strong plays against Tampa Bay’s leaky secondary. As usual, Cooper remains more expensive but has more upside, while Crabtree has become the steady option.
The Takeaway: The Raiders are certainly in play in a favorable matchup against the Bucs. I love the bounce-back potential for Derek Carr in this game, and both of his starting receivers are strong plays in any format. Latavius Murray might be the #1 running back again, but he’s not very good and there is always risk of his workload going in the tank.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback: Tampa Bay ran a heaping 73 offensive plays against the 49ers a week ago, which was predictable given the pace of both teams. Jameis Winston continues to put up good numbers against bad teams and bad numbers against good teams, which in a way makes him predictable. Oakland’s defense is bad, so this should set up as a nice game for Winston. If you don’t trust Carr, Winston is similarly priced across the industry and is in a good spot himself. Feel free to target him, especially in tournaments with his multiple touchdown and 300 yard upside.
Running Backs: This would normally be a spot where we say just to play Jacquizz Rodgers, but I am a little worried here. The Bucs would be smart to cut back his touches, as there is no way he can handle 26 carries on a weekly basis and stay healthy. In addition, Peyton Barber looked pretty darn good last week. Granted, the 49ers seem to make every running back look good, as they are allowing the most rushing yards per game in the entire NFL — by a large margin. I think we could see a little bit more of a time share this week, and Rodgers’ price has come up to reflect his production on most sites. There is more risk here than you would think, and I will probably fade Rodgers this week and target the passing game instead. Barber is a sneaky, 1% owned GPP option at minimum salary on most sites if you want to stomach the risk.
Pass Catchers: Mike Evans might see 20 targets in a game somewhere down the road. He seems to get into the double digits every single week, and he parlayed 13 targets into eight grabs for 96 yards and two scores against the 49ers. He also dropped an easy touchdown, though he scored later on that same drive. He is in play for his stability and his upside every single week. The rest of the crew is hard to trust, with Cecil Shorts, Adam Humphries, and Russell Shepard splitting snaps. Cameron Brate has not done enough to earn our attention just yet.
The Takeaway: Jameis Winston and Mike Evans are a great combination once again this week, and Evans might be the highest-owned wide receiver on the slate. He comes at a discount from the Julio Jones and Odell Beckham type receivers, and he is going to see a ton of targets going forward. I don’t trust Jacquizz Rodgers in this game after Peyton Barber looked good against San Francisco, and the Bucs would be wise to give him more snaps in order to save Rodgers a bit.