NFL Grind Down: Week 8
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our “DraftKings promo code” to get one year of Grinders Incentives for free ($300 value).
Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs
| Detroit Lions | Kansas City Chiefs | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 9:30 a.m. | London, England | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 45.5 | 20 | -5.5 | 45.5 | 25.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 19.9 | 29 | 5 | 32 | Offense | 21.4 | 21 | 11 | 14 | |
| Opp. Defense | 24.6 | 18 | 22 | 11 | Opp. Defense | 28.6 | 29 | 25 | 24 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 22 | 7 | 32 | 6 | Detroit Lions | 24 | 21 | 27 | 20 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Johnson | 68 | 43 | 3 | 574 | Maclin | 56 | 39 | 1 | 526 | |
| Tate | 62 | 34 | 1 | 332 | Wilson | 19 | 9 | 1 | 153 | |
| Fuller | 5 | 3 | 0 | 61 | Thomas | 16 | 10 | 1 | 98 | |
| Ebron | 28 | 20 | 3 | 268 | Kelce | 47 | 34 | 2 | 489 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Joique Bell (DET, Questionable), Jeremy Maclin (KC, Probable)
DET Matchup Rating: 4.0
KC Matchup Rating: 7.0
Detroit Lions
Quarterback: The Lions have started off this season on an express train to the number one overall pick in the draft, and made their first move in an attempt to turn things around by firing their offensive coordinator. Joe Lombardi is out, replaced by Jim Bob Cooter, and frankly, I’m not sure this is going to mean a whole lot for the offense. Lombardi was a quarterbacks coach with the Saints while Drew Brees was in his prime, and worked under a great head coach in Sean Payton. Cooter was an offensive assistant for the Broncos when Peyton Manning was there and still playing like Peyton Manning, and parlayed that into a job with the Lions. Neither guy has much of a leg to stand on when it comes to getting Matthew Stafford (FD $7,500, DK $5,800) to play at a more consistent level.
Stafford has six touchdowns and only one interception over his last two games, but prior to that he had multiple interceptions in three of five games, and a three-game stretch with only two touchdown throws and a disappointing yardage total. Kansas City has recovered defensively from early season hiccups that saw them ranking as the easiest team to pass on in the NFL, and now rank tenth in points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. This is more in line with their slightly below average pass defense, according to Football Outsiders and numberFire. Stafford will likely throw quite a bit, more than a lot of the other quarterbacks in his price range, but I’m not sure it will amount to much. He’s not unworthy of consideration, but he’s not a player you should have in your core of top picks this week.
Running Game: The Detroit running game has been a bit of a mess this season, and with a tough matchup against Kansas City on deck as pretty big underdogs, we can thankfully ignore it outside of the most contrarian of tournament plays. Ameer Abdullah (FD $5,600, DK $3,900) is the best player in the backfield, and Theo Riddick (FD $5,300, DK $3,400) has the most fantasy-friendly role on PPR sites, so sprinkle them in if you want to go off the beaten path in your GPP contests.
Pass Catchers: Calvin Johnson (FD $8,600, DK $7,900) got a day off from practice, and as such will have an injury tag next to his name all week and be on the injury report. However, it doesn’t seem to be anything serious, and that means Johnson will see his ownership drop ever so slightly as users pass over his name thanks to the disappointment of the Lions’ offense and his perceived injury status. But it’s not like Johnson is going to be some secret sneaky play, as he’s come on strong with touchdowns in two straight games and over 250 yards over that span. Kansas City’s Sean Smith used to be someone to fear in WR/CB matchups, but he’s not that guy this season, and he only plays on one side of the formation. The Lions can get Johnson open if they choose, or just throw him the ball even if he’s covered and let him do the work. He’s a fine option at a fairly reasonable price for a player with his kind of upside. Golden Tate (FD $6,600, DK $5,000) has very limited touchdown potential and hasn’t been heavily involved in the offense with the emergence of other options, and isn’t on my radar, even in a relatively easy matchup. No other player on this offense has the role or matchup we want for daily fantasy purposes, so stick to the big guns here.
The Takeaway: Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson are always in play, as they have a proven connection that can turn into tons of fantasy points. But this offense is in a state of disarray, so despite a seemingly easy matchup, I’m not going to spend too many roster spots on Detroit offensive players.
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback: The Lions are numberFire’s lowest ranked passing defense, and only one spot better according to Football Outsiders. That means their DvP ranking doesn’t quite do their defense justice. It’s bad. Unfortunately, Alex Smith (FD $6,600, DK $5,000) and the Chiefs aren’t exactly dripping in upside and fantasy potential. Smith broke out for three touchdowns in a Week 1 win, and has thrown four in six games since. We can’t rule Smith out as an option, but he’s not a player to bank on for tournament-winning totals, and doesn’t have a high enough floor for cash games. He’s a mediocre tournament play.
Running Game: Charcandrick West (FD $6,600, DK $4,700) was a week late for most daily fantasy players, as he backed up his disappointing “debut” as the Jamaal Charles replacement with a 100+ yard, one touchdown performance against the Steelers. The Lions are a bit tougher against the run than they are the pass, with numberFire ranking them as a top-ten run defense unit (while Football Outsiders isn’t quite that optimistic). His price is reasonable, but there’s not a lot of value left in the new Kansas City starter. Like his quarterback, he’s a mediocre tournament play (who might be a bit more popular than we’d like after a big week).
Pass Catchers: Jeremy Maclin (FD $6,800, DK $6,200) should be able to return from a concussion this week, and if he does, he is my preferred way to get exposure to the Kansas City offense. Prior to his injury, he had carved out a big role in the offense, picking up double-digit targets in three straight games before having to sit out with a head injury. If he is active for this game, he’s healthy enough to trust for fantasy purposes, and makes for a very interesting option against a defense that has allowed of yards after catch according to NFL.com’s Matt Harmon. The Lions are a bottom-ten defense against tight ends according to Football Outsiders and fantasy points against, and Travis Kelce (FD $5,900, DK $5,000) is therefore a tournament play with too unclear of a role to trust in cash games. He appears to be locked into a handful of targets per week, but where those targets are and how far downfield they go is the issue holding back the incredibly talented tight end.
The Takeaway: The Chiefs are healthy favorites in this game, but they are known to be frustrating for fantasy owners, and this game will be played in London, further adding to the potential for nonsense and frustration. I’ll be avoiding the slate that includes this game, as I don’t see a player worth targeting. If you are playing, Smith, Maclin and Kelce are the preferred plays.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Atlanta Falcons | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Georgia Dome | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | 48.5 | 20.5 | -7.5 | 48.5 | 28 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.3 | 13 | 27 | 8 | Offense | 27.6 | 4 | 8 | 2 | |
| Opp. Defense | 21.4 | 13 | 23 | 2 | Opp. Defense | 29.8 | 31 | 7 | 15 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 5 | 30 | 5 | 26 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 29 | 15 | 22 | 15 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Evans | 45 | 21 | 1 | 338 | Jones | 89 | 58 | 5 | 730 | |
| Jackson | 40 | 21 | 2 | 319 | White | 25 | 14 | 1 | 186 | |
| Shepard | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | Hankerson | 39 | 22 | 2 | 291 | |
| Seferian-Jenkins | 10 | 7 | 2 | 139 | Tamme | 31 | 22 | 0 | 266 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TB, Questionable), Vincent Jackson (TB, Doubtful), Leonard Hankerson (ATL, Doubtful), Nick Williams (ATL, Questionable)
TB Matchup Rating: 4.0
ATL Matchup Rating: 7.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback: The Buccaneers have found a way to score a few points over their last two games, but still sit at 2-4 and are one of the worst teams in the NFL. This week they’ll face a surprising Atlanta team that jumped out of the gate with a 5-0 record, but hasn’t always looked “elite” in the process. Still, the Falcons are expected to beat the Bucs quite easily, and the Atlanta pass defense is better than you may remember from previous season. But Jameis Winston (FD $6,600, DK $5,200) has been consistent this season, regularly producing 15 or more FanDuel points and returning decent value with a limited ceiling. His receiving corps is hurting and his offensive line is terrible, and there’s quite a bit to be worried about in this contest. He’s a viable punt at quarterback in cash games, but there are better cheap options to be found (especially on DraftKings, where Ryan Fitzpatrick is the same price).
Running Game: Doug Martin (FD $7,500, DK $5,500) has been playing well enough to earn a price boost in recent weeks, and will face a defense that allows some of the highest fantasy point totals to opposing running backs. But that number remains inflated thanks to Joseph Randle and his three-touchdown performance a few weeks ago, and this run defense actually ranks 14th according to Football Outsiders and eighth according to numberFire. Martin has really secure volume as the Bucs like to keep the ball out of the hands of Jameis Winston, and so Martin should also return a decent point total even at a higher price in a neutral matchup. Game flow is a big concern, but Martin is still usable in cash games and viable in tournaments, although he’ll be popular. The Falcons allowed over 500 yards to backs as receivers on the season, which makes Charles Sims (FD $5,100, DK $3,600) a sneaky tournament play as the Bucs throw the ball to keep up with the Atlanta offense, and compensate for their lack of receiving options.
Pass Catchers: Assuming Vincent Jackson is out, Mike Evans (FD $7,800, DK $6,800) is the only show in town at receiver for the Bucs. And if the Falcons stick to their guns and leave Desmond Trufant on his side of the field and allow the Bucs to get Evans in better matchups on the offense’s left, he’ll be a viable play. If there’s no news about Trufant shadowing the Bucs’ obvious top receiver, he’s a tournament play. No other receiving options stand out as viable unless Austin Seferian-Jenkins (FD $5,200, DK $2,800) suits up for the first time since his injury. ASJ would be a fine tight end punt on DraftKings if he’s active.
The Takeaway: The Bucs are likely to lose this football game, and don’t face the same weak Atlanta defense we’ve seen in years past. Jameis Winston and Doug Martin have been consistent, and deserve some cash game consideration, while Charles Sims, Mike Evans and Austin Seferian-Jenkins are all tournament plays.
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback: The Buccaneers have been terrible against the pass this year, as Lovie Smith’s defense lacks in talent and structure. This isn’t the old “Tampa 2” you remember (and they don’t even play all that much Tampa 2 coverage, not that it would help). Matt Ryan (FD $8,000, DK $7,100) and the Falcons are expected to score four touchdowns according to the current Vegas odds, and considering the relative strength of the Buccaneer run defense, we can count on plenty of opportunities through the air. The Bucs have allowed nine passing touchdowns in their last three games, and 16 total scores to signal callers over their six games this season. It would be a major upset if Ryan doesn’t put three touchdowns on the board against this defense, and combined with 250+ yards, that’s a very solid fantasy outing.
Running Game: It’s easy to conclude “the Bucs are bad, let’s start a running back against them,” but the Tampa Bay run defense is much better than the pass defense. According to Football Outsiders, the Bucs rank ninth in run defense, and they rank as a tougher than average fantasy opponent for backs. Since Alfred Blue’s 31-carry, 139-yard performance in Week 3, no back has carried for more than 50 yards against Tampa Bay, and none have found the end zone on the ground. No back has caught more than 31 yards worth of passes against the Buccaneer defense, either. Devonta Freeman (FD $9,100, DK $8,000) has seen his price reach elite levels, but he’s not the second coming of LaDainian Tomlinson. I can’t justify Freeman in my personal cash games, and he’s too popular for tournament use. I won’t blame you if you go back to the well here, especially since Freeman should get upwards of 30 touches, but I think there are better ways to spend such a big chunk of salary.
Pass Catchers: With Leonard Hankerson suffering from an injury, it will be a throwback weekend for Atlanta with Julio Jones (FD $9,200, DK $9,200) and Roddy White (FD $5,200, DK $3,900) leading the way in the passing game. Jones needs no introduction, but I’ll provide one anyway, as the Atlanta receiver has seen ten or more targets in six of seven games this season, with ridiculous target totals of 15, 17 and 20 mixed in. He averages over 100 yards per game against the Bucs in his career, and there are no defenders capable of slowing him down in the Tampa Bay secondary. He’s viable in all formats. White has seen four targets per game for the past few weeks, but will see a boost in usage should Hankerson sit out, as expected. Nick Williams (DK $3,000) is an interesting punt play if he’s healthy enough to go this weekend, as he’s caught a pass in every game this season and hauled in three against Tennessee last week in a competitive game. Jacob Tamme (FD $4,800, DK $2,700) will probably score a touchdown one of these weeks, and he may see extra targets with Hankerson out, as well. White, Williams and Tamme are all tournament plays.
The Takeaway: Matt Ryan and Julio Jones are the duo you want in any format, but they’ll be very popular. Devonta Freeman will get a ton of opportunities, but may not live up to expectations against a better-than-you-think run defense. Still, he’s been on fire and has volume on his side, so don’t erase him from your cheat sheet.
Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns
| Arizona Cardinals | Cleveland Browns | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | FirstEnergy Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 46 | 25.25 | 4.5 | 46 | 20.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 32.7 | 2 | 7 | 4 | Offense | 21.0 | 23 | 4 | 26 | |
| Opp. Defense | 26.0 | 23 | 13 | 32 | Opp. Defense | 19.0 | 8 | 6 | 7 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Cleveland Browns | 16 | 29 | 17 | 12 | Arizona Cardinals | 9 | 9 | 13 | 1 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Fitzgerald | 59 | 46 | 6 | 622 | Benjamin | 60 | 35 | 4 | 575 | |
| Floyd | 29 | 16 | 2 | 213 | Hawkins | 35 | 20 | 0 | 207 | |
| Brown | 51 | 37 | 3 | 575 | Hartline | 25 | 12 | 0 | 150 | |
| Gresham | 16 | 9 | 0 | 113 | Barnidge | 48 | 33 | 5 | 514 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: John Brown (ARI, Doubtful), Josh McCown, Andrew Hawkins (CLE, Questionable)
ARI Matchup Rating: 7.5
CLE Matchup Rating: 2.5
Arizona Cardinals
Quarterback: The Browns started off the season by allowing solid performances to quarterbacks in four straight games, but then “improving” to allow only two touchdowns in their last three games. Improving is in quotes, because I’m not sure their performances against a declining Peyton Manning and Nick “Handoff to Gurley” Foles. should count that heavily when considering how good a defense is. Marcus Mariota, Derek Carr and Philip Rivers all threw for multiple touchdowns and had over 250 yards against this defense, and Carson Palmer (FD $8,100, DK $7,000) should continue that trend. The veteran signal caller for Arizona has yet to have a total letdown game, with a season-low 17 FanDuel points against a tough St. Louis defense ranking as his worst performance of the year. Cleveland is not St. Louis. Palmer will have a good day against the Browns, and is viable in all formats.
Running Game: The Cardinals have helped to reinvent Chris Johnson (FD $7,300, DK $4,600), who is now a hard-running workhorse back (who still has the speed to chew up yards in the secondary) leading a three-headed rushing attack. He has double-digit carries in every game this season, and has gone over 100 yards in three of his last five games. Johnson doesn’t even play half of the Cardinals’ snaps, but when he’s on the field, he gets the ball, and is running with a lot of efficiency and explosiveness. The Browns have the worst defense in the NFL against the run according to Football Outsiders, numberFire, and fantasy points allowed. This is a dream matchup for Johnson, who should see somewhere between 10-20 carries and get a lot done with them. The uncertainty in his workload has him as tournament only for me, but with value plays so hard to come by this week, I can see a case for using him in cash games. He plays around the same percentage of his team’s snaps as Doug Martin, and people will be using the Tampa Bay back in cash games this season, and I actually prefer Johnson if we’re picking timeshare backs in good spots this week.
Pass Catchers: Larry Fitzgerald (FD $7,700, DK $7,700) did have his “letdown” game last week, hauling in only three catches for 39 yards as the other pass catchers helped to ease the workload of the veteran wideout. He’ll play out of the slot, where the a pair of capable players named Williams, K’Wuan and Tramon. It’s the other corner who plays regularly, Joe Haden, who has been struggling this season. He’s obviously the most talented player in this defensive backfield, but he hasn’t been playing like it this year. He’s dealt with injuries, and could be on a comeback trail starting this weekend, but he could have just taken a step back and be more vulnerable than we’ve seen in the past. It will be Haden and Tramon Williams who will handle most of the coverage duties on John Brown (FD $6,700, DK $5,800) (if he plays), Michael Floyd (FD $4,900, DK $3,500), and whatever backups might play in place of Brown. I’m not sure the Browns would feel the need to shadow any one player with Haden or Williams, and I don’t think it matters either way. You want exposure to this passing game, and I think Fitzgerald is a fine way to get it, since he’s better than the players who man the slot corner position for the Browns. Floyd is fine, especially if Brown is out, and if Brown plays, he’s a solid choice, as well. I wouldn’t venture into the reserves, even if John Brown is out, but if you must, Jaron Brown (FD $4,500, DK $3,000) is where you want to land.
The Takeaway: The entire Arizona offense is in a good spot this weekend, as Carson Palmer is a top quarterback option, while Chris Johnson and the receivers are all strong choices as well. The defense is a fine play against the Browns, who have four multi-turnover games so far this season.
Cleveland Browns
Quarterback: Josh McCown (FD $6,600, DK $5,000) is dealing with an injury, but should be good to go this weekend against Arizona. He’s played well at times this season, but in easier matchups than this. He took a big step back against the tougher defenses of the Broncos and Rams, and will likely remain on that level against the Cardinals, who rank eighth against the pass according to Football Outsiders. He’s not in play, and I wouldn’t trust Johnny Manziel (FD $6,600, DK $5,000) against this defense, either, if he draws the start in place of McCown.
Running Game: In almost hilariously predictable fashion, the Browns have joined the Giants in creating the least fantasy-appealing backfields in the NFL. Last week, the three backs for the Browns each had between five and eight carries. Duke Johnson (FD $5,800, DK $4,200) holds appeal thanks to his role as the primary receiving back in a game this team should lose, but his upside is limited in this tough matchup.
Pass Catchers: The Cardinals were once the best matchup in the NFL for tight ends, and they’re now the exact opposite. Arizona has the top tight end defense according to Football Outsiders, and that’s backed up by a ranking of 30th in points allowed to the position. Gary Barnidge (FD $6,300, DK $4,700) could use a reality check to drop his price a bit so we can use him in the future, because I certainly don’t want to use him here. If anyone is going to have a big game against this defense, it would be Travis Benjamin (FD $6,300, DK $5,300), who fits the “big play” mold of Tavon Austin and Martavis Bryant, the two receivers to have the biggest games against the Cardinals so far this season. He’s worth a spot on a cheap GPP lineup or two.
The Takeaway: The Browns face a tough matchup this week, and Travis Benjamin and Duke Johnson are the only players worthy of consideration for DFS lineups.