NFL Grind Down: Week 8 - Page Three
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
| Cincinnati Bengals | Pittsburgh Steelers | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Heinz Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 48 | 24 | 0 | 48 | 24 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 30.3 | 3 | 15 | 15 | Offense | 22.6 | 18 | 19 | 3 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.7 | 7 | 27 | 8 | Opp. Defense | 20.3 | 11 | 21 | 16 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 19 | 3 | 19 | 29 | Cincinnati Bengals | 17 | 18 | 15 | 10 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Green | 50 | 35 | 3 | 531 | Archer | |||||
| Sanu | 24 | 16 | 0 | 274 | Brown | 66 | 46 | 2 | 677 | |
| Jones | 38 | 24 | 3 | 330 | Bryant | 16 | 9 | 3 | 203 | |
| Eifert | 40 | 28 | 6 | 342 | Miller | 24 | 17 | 1 | 168 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT, Probable)
CIN Matchup Rating: 6.5
PIT Matchup Rating: 5.0
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback: With Ben Roethlisberger back for the Steelers, this should be a fun, competitive game that will draw the best out of both quarterbacks. Historically, Andy Dalton (FD $8,100, DK $6,000) has done worse against division foes than teams he doesn’t face as regularly, but based on what we’ve seen this season, can we count on anything “historically” when it comes to the Red Rifle? He has been held under two touchdowns only once this season, and has yardage totals of 383, 321, 331 and 243 in his last four games. He may come crashing down to earth eventually, and a road game in the division that could turn into a shootout might be that spot, but I think that’s speculative and driven by narrative, not facts. Dalton has been playing really, really well, and merits a spot in your core of players for this weekend, especially on DraftKings.
Running Game: Just when it was starting to look like Giovani Bernard (FD $6,700, DK $4,800) was the guy to target in the Cincy backfield, Jeremy Hill (FD $6,300, DK $5,300) returned had twice as many rushing attempts in the Bengals’ final game before their bye week. Bernard had the better game overall, scoring and running with more efficiency, but Hill remains a key part of what Marvin Lewis’ team wants to do. that makes it difficult to figure this team out for daily fantasy purposes, but luckily, this week’s matchup does some of the hard work for us. The Steelers rank 30th in points allowed to backs, and rank seventh in DVOA against the run, third in numberFire’s rankings in terms of run defense, and 10th in DVOA against backs in the passing game. Will a Bengals back find success in this game? Sure. But you can throw darts at both in tournaments all you want, because neither should be used in a cash game.
Pass Catchers: A.J. Green (FD $8,200, DK $7,600) is an incredible talent, and the Steelers don’t have a defensive back capable of keeping him in check. Ross Cockrell is their top cover corner according to Pro Football Focus’ grades, and he’ll only see Green half of the time as the Bengals move their top wideout around to get him in good matchups. The other corners who will line up for the Steelers grade out as in need of replacement by PFF, and Green should feast upon those easy matchups. His volume is the primary concern, as he’s only hit double-digit receptions once this season. He was out-targeted by Marvin Jones (FD $5,400, DK $4,200) last week, which should draw attention to the Bengals’ impressive number two receiver. Just two years ago, Jones hauled in 10 touchdowns on only 51 receptions, and after sitting out last year due to injury, he’s back in action and popping up on the score sheet once again. The Bengals spread the ball around, and so if I’m going to lean on one of their passing game targets, I prefer the cheaper Jones, but he doesn’t have the same monster upside of Green. Different player, same story for Tyler Eifert (FD $6,000, DK $5,300), who has had some solid performances this year, but doesn’t have the consistent volume we want. None of these guys are worthy of use in cash games, but they’re all viable in tournaments.
The Takeaway: Andy Dalton is a top play, but figuring out the skill position players is difficult with this offense. Hill, Bernard, Green, Jones and Eifert are all worthy of tournament consideration, with Jones and Bernard standing out as my preferred plays thanks to their talent, roles and prices.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterback: Ben Roethlisberger (FD $8,200, DK $6,700) looks likely to return this weekend, and it couldn’t come at a better time, as the Steelers will need to score to keep up with the Bengals. Ben steps right back into his role as a top quarterback play in daily fantasy football, as he still has weapons galore and a favorable offense that airs the ball out and concentrates its plays to get good players space with the football. The Bengals are as average as can be on defense, ranking between 12 and 18 in fantasy points allowed to every position, DVOA against the pass and run, and all of numberFire’s team defensive metrics. Matchups aren’t of that much concern for Ben, anyways, but this just further solidifies his status as a top play this weekend.
Running Game: Le’Veon Bell (FD $8,900, DK $8,300) failed to reach 100 total yards against the tough Arizona defense, but has otherwise cleared that milestone in every game this season. He’s been held out of the end zone in his two most recent outings, but that should change as the offense becomes more efficient with Big Ben back under center. He has 20 or more touches in every game, and since his return in Week 3, he has 13 of the team’s 15 red zone rushing attempts. It’s tough to pay up at running back this week, but if you do, make it Bell who finds his way onto your roster.
Pass Catchers: Antonio Brown (FD $8,400, DK $7,800) has been hiding from the price setters at the two major DFS sites while Big Ben has been away, and this is the perfect time to return to the playmaking receiver when his price is as low as we can expect for quite some time. He used to be a $9,000+ player on both sites, and was worth every penny. Now that he’s cheaper, and might be out of mind for a lot of daily fantasy players, it’s time to load up on one of the league’s best receivers. Lots of players will continue to roster Martavis Bryant (FD $7,200, DK $5,300), and while his three touchdowns in two games should spark some interest, his low volume is still a concern. He was never one of Roethlisberger’s main targets, as Ben favored Brown and Bell, with Bryant’s eight targets in his two appearances this season tied for a career high. Can he do a lot with five or six targets? Absolutely. But that volume is far too low for cash game use, and should be used as a tournament play only.
The Takeaway: The Bengals are as neutral as a matchup can get, so bank on the talent of the Pittsburgh offense. Roethlisberger, Bell and Brown are stars who deserve consideration in all formats, while Bryant is a tournament option with huge upside.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
| Tennessee Titans | Houston Texans | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Reliant Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 19.8 | 30 | 25 | 27 | Offense | 22.0 | 19 | 3 | 25 | |
| Opp. Defense | 28.4 | 28 | 15 | 27 | Opp. Defense | 23.2 | 16 | 1 | 29 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Houston Texans | 30 | 27 | 20 | 19 | Tennessee Titans | 12 | 4 | 11 | 22 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Wright | 39 | 24 | 3 | 336 | Hopkins | 101 | 58 | 5 | 776 | |
| Douglas | 23 | 9 | 1 | 75 | Washington | 44 | 22 | 2 | 337 | |
| Hunter | 20 | 13 | 0 | 183 | Shorts | 45 | 26 | 1 | 299 | |
| Walker | 38 | 29 | 1 | 299 | Fiedorowicz | 10 | 7 | 1 | 74 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Marcus Mariota (TEN, Out), Harry Douglas (TEN, Doubtful), Cecil Shorts (HOU, Out)
TEN Matchup Rating: 4.5
HOU Matchup Rating: 5.0
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback: The Texans are a mess on defense this season, ranking near the bottom in every category, but especially when it comes to slowing down opposing quarterbacks. However, Marcus Mariota (FD $7,100, DK $5,400) is dealing with a knee injury, and clearly wasn’t himself playing at less than 100%. (The same could have been said about him during college when he played through a minor knee injury.) If he plays, he’s a tournament option only because of how bad the Texans are defensively, and if he doesn’t, Zach Mettenberger (FD $6,000, DK $5,100) is reluctantly an option for the same reason. Houston has allowed nine touchdowns from quarterbacks in their last three games, and the Titans should be able to score two or three times, even with their unappealing offensive talent.
Injury Update: Mariota has been ruled out for this weekend’s game. Mettenberger is not a great option, but the Texans are terrible on defense, and there will be opportunities for Mett to rebound from a bad game last week.
Running Game: No Tennessee running back has carried the ball more than 13 times in a game this season, and four different backs have gone over ten carries in a game this season for the Titans. This is another nightmare situation for DFS purposes, and it’s incredibly frustrating this week, as the Texans are a below-average run defense and the Titans should keep this game competitive. Antonio Andrews (FD $5,300, DK $3,300) has been seeing fairly consistent volume over the past few weeks, and since Week 3, he leads the team in red zone carries with seven. He’s a candidate for a Matt Asiata type of game with 12 carries for 38 yards and two touchdowns. In other words, use him in a tournament lineup or two, but don’t let things get out of hand.
Pass Catchers: Kendall Wright (FD $5,900, DK $5,100) has the highest potential volume at receiver for the Titans, and Delanie Walker (FD $5,400, DK $4,100) sees his fair share of looks at the tight end position. These are the safer ways to go when targeting this passing attack. Slot receivers have given the Texans fits this season, with Leonard Hankerson, Bryan Walters, Jarvis Landry and Andre Johnson all having big days from an inside receiver position, so Wright is especially attractive as a high-upside tournament play. Other Titans receivers are in use-at-your-own-risk territory due to uncertain roles and volumes.
The Takeaway: Kendall Wright is a strong tournament option, while the quarterbacks, Delanie Walker and Antonio Andrews hold some appeal in GPPs as well.
Houston Texans
Quarterback: Brian Hoyer (FD $6,900, DK $5,300) will now be the unquestioned starting quarterback of the Texans with Ryan Mallett out of the picture, and Hoyer has done well enough to allow focus to shift on the other lackluster elements of the Houston roster. He’s thrown multiple touchdown passes in each of his last four appearances, and has gone over 270 yards in his last three. The Titans have a surprisingly good pass defense when judging by Football Outsiders’ or numberFire’s metrics, mainly thanks to their eight interceptions and their ability to hold every quarterback under 270 yards and to a maximum of two touchdowns. And without any likely garbage time for the Houston quarterback, this seems like a shaky spot to target him for daily fantasy. There are worse options in tournaments, but not many.
Running Game: With Arian Foster unfortunately done for the season, Alfred Blue (FD $6,500, DK $3,500), Chris Polk (FD $5,300, DK $3,000) and Jonathan Grimes (FD $5,300, DK $3,000) will split the backfield duties for Houston. Blue has seen the most red zone usage of any healthy Houston back, and has more opportunities inside the 20 this season than Texans player not nicknamed Nuk. He’s the guy you’d rather have if you’re searching for value in this backfield, but he’s got such limited upside, and will likely be taken out of the game for Polk or Grimes on a regular basis. In games that will feature more garbage time opportunities, Grimes is the PPR back to own, but in a competitive game this week, I’ll likely have a couple shares of Blue but nothing more.
Pass Catchers: DeAndre Hopkins (FD $9,000, DK $8,700) burned a lot of fantasy players last week as he failed to produce in a game that saw Nate Washington (FD $5,400, DK $3,600) go crazy instead. With Cecil Shorts out, these two will carry the passing game, and should see 25-30 targets between them, with potential for more if the Texans are forced to throw due to game flow or the realization that they have no talented running backs. Thursday lock contests reveal that the two receivers are both moderately popular, so feel free to use Washington as a salary saver and Hopkins as a foundation player in tournaments this weekend, as their volume and the lack of talent at corner for the Titans is enough to trust them, even in a matchup that seems tough on paper.
The Takeaway: Hopkins and Washington are the top options in this one, as both should see more than enough targets to pick up the catches, yards, and in Hopkins’ case, touchdowns to justify their prices. Anyone else on this offense is a tournament dart at best.
New York Jets at Oakland Raiders
| New York Jets | Oakland Raiders | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 4:05 p.m. | O.co Coliseum | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2 | 44 | 23 | 2 | 44 | 21 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 25.3 | 7 | 26 | 7 | Offense | 24.0 | 10 | 21 | 29 | |
| Opp. Defense | 25.5 | 21 | 32 | 3 | Opp. Defense | 17.5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Oakland Raiders | 25 | 19 | 12 | 32 | New York Jets | 3 | 1 | 9 | 23 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Marshall | 60 | 41 | 4 | 578 | Crabtree | 56 | 33 | 2 | 381 | |
| Decker | 38 | 24 | 4 | 333 | Cooper | 50 | 33 | 3 | 521 | |
| Kerley | 15 | 9 | 2 | 60 | Roberts | 18 | 8 | 2 | 86 | |
| Cumberland | 7 | 3 | 0 | 26 | Rivera | 17 | 11 | 0 | 75 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Chris Owusu (NYJ, Doubtful), Eric Decker, Chris Ivory (NYJ, Probable)
NYJ Matchup Rating: 5.5
OAK Matchup Rating: 2.5
New York Jets
Quarterback: Ryan Fitzpatrick (FD $7,400, DK $5,200) has thrown two passing touchdowns in five of his six starts this season, with a game in London providing the lone exception. He’s also rushed for 29 or more yards in each of his last three outings, providing a nice couple of points as a floor for his consistent but unspectacular passing. The Raiders have allowed the eighth-most points to opposing quarterbacks this season, and numberFire ranks them as the second-worst pass defense in the league. That’s good enough for me to roll out Fitzmagic once again, especially at his bargain price on DraftKings.
Running Game: Chris Ivory (FD $7,700, DK $6,000) unsurprisingly had a poor game against the Patriots last weekend, but previously had run for 300 yards combined over two games. The matchup this week is a bit on the tougher side, as the Raiders have yet to allow a back to carry for more than 91 yards, and outside of that one rusher (Forte), no other runner has eclipsed 63 yards. Backs get their work done in the passing game against Oakland, as the Raiders rank 26th in DVOA against RBs through the air. Ivory has been more involved in the passing game this year, but is hardly a player to target for that reason. I have a feeling the Jets will feed Ivory even if the run isn’t working well, and he could punch in a score or two, so he’s not totally off the radar. But there are better spots to target this weekend.
Pass Catchers: According to Pro Football Focus’ player grades, there is no corner for Oakland that should scare you away for fantasy purposes. Brandon Marshall (FD $8,300, DK $7,600) and Eric Decker (FD $6,400, DK $5,300) are the top two receivers, and both have plenty of production this season to show for it. Decker’s volume is a bit inconsistent, but he’s so efficient and such a red zone threat out of the slot that he’s worth a spot on tournament rosters. Marshall is a target monster who has five 100-yard games this season, and is likely to add a sixth this week, especially if the run doesn’t work for the Jets. No other receiver should be on your radar, as the offense runs through these two wideouts and Ivory.
The Takeaway: Fitzpatrick and either of his top receivers is a go-to tournament stacking option, while Ivory is worth a spot in a lineup or two thanks to his high volume.
Oakland Raiders
Quarterback: The Jets saw some of their numbers drop a bit after facing the Patriots, but any good metric that adjusts for strength of opponent (as Football Outsiders and numberFire do) doesn’t penalize New York much for last week’s loss. That’s why they’re still third against the pass according to FO and fifth per nF. This is too tough of a pass defense to trust Derek Carr (FD $6,800, DK $5,300), who has been surprisingly good this season, but isn’t Tom Brady, and will likely suffer a similar fate as Kirk Cousins or Sam Bradford, who were held under 200 yards and to only one touchdown each.
Running Game: The Jets have the league’s best run defense. The Patriots were wise and didn’t even try to run against them. The Raiders will likely give the running game a shot, but it won’t work. Avoid Oakland rushers in this game.
Pass Catchers: Amari Cooper (FD $7,500, DK $6,700) has been as good as advertised, picking up the NFL game quickly and making huge plays as a key part of this offense. But can he do it against Darrelle Revis? According to PFF, Revis is allowing only .1 points per route run against him, and has one of the highest grades at the cornerback position. Michael Crabtree (FD $5,700, DK $4,700) will face fairly tough opposition in Antonio Cromartie, but he’s not Revis, and should be able to get open for a few passes. However, since this is a Todd Bowles defense, tight ends will be able to get open, and Clive Walford (FD $4,500, DK $2,600) found the end zone for the first time in his NFL career last week. He splits snaps with Mychal Rivera (FD $4,900, DK $2,500) and the fantasy-irrelevant Lee Smith, and while none of these players have seen more than five targets in a game this season, we could see one (or both) of Walford and Rivera pick up a couple of catches and a possible touchdown in this one. I may spend one roster spot across all sites on Walford or Rivera, just in case.
The Takeaway: The Jets are a very tough matchup, and Michael Crabtree is the only player of any note worth considering for your lineups.
Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys
| Seattle Seahawks | Dallas Cowboys | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 4:25 p.m. | AT&T Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6 | 41 | 23.5 | 6 | 41 | 17.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.0 | 19 | 17 | 1 | Offense | 20.2 | 27 | 23 | 12 | |
| Opp. Defense | 26.3 | 24 | 11 | 9 | Opp. Defense | 18.3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 8 | 31 | 10 | 2 | Seattle Seahawks | 6 | 2 | 1 | 30 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Baldwin | 34 | 28 | 2 | 310 | Williams | 40 | 18 | 2 | 293 | |
| Kearse | 30 | 21 | 1 | 338 | Beasley | 29 | 22 | 0 | 214 | |
| Lockett | 24 | 17 | 0 | 218 | Butler | 6 | 3 | 0 | 108 | |
| Graham | 45 | 31 | 2 | 375 | Witten | 45 | 36 | 2 | 344 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Thomas Rawls (SEA, Questionable), Marshawn Lynch (SEA, Probable), Joseph Randle (DAL, Out), Dez Bryant (DAL, Questionable)
SEA Matchup Rating: 4.5
DAL Matchup Rating: 1.5
Seattle Seahawks
Quarterback: The Seattle defense has its fair share of blame to accept for the team’s disappointing start, but a drop in performance from Russell Wilson (FD $7,800, DK $6,300) has hurt the Seahawk offense. Wilson started his career with back-to-back seasons with a touchdown ratio of over 6%, which fell to 4.4% last year, and 3.9% this year. His interception rate has jumped back to the level of his rookie season, and, maybe most notably, his sack rate has climbed to 13.2%, by far the highest of his career. That final point may tell us what we need to know about this offense, and why we should exercise caution with trusting the otherwise efficient Wilson in daily fantasy. No quarterback can succeed when he’s being sacked on 13% of his dropbacks. In fact, only three quarterbacks this season have a sack rate higher than 10%, and they’ve combined to win only six of 19 games, and have 15 interceptions between them. Dallas has a league-average defensive sack rate, and has limited opposing passing games from a fantasy perspective thanks to their slow offensive tempo and their ability to keep receivers out of the end zone (only seven passing touchdowns allowed in six games). This isn’t a good pass defense, as Football Outsiders ranks them 20th and numberFire ranks them 13th, but I think it’s good enough to temper expectations for Wilson behind his struggling offensive line. He’s in play in tournaments thanks to his incredible running ability and big play potential, but I would avoid him in cash games.
Running Game: I would also advise avoiding Wilson because this game has Marshawn Lynch (FD $8,300, DK $7,100) written all over it. Assuming “Beast Mode” is able to suit up on Sunday, he gets a great matchup with a Dallas defense that has allowed the fourth-most points to backs this season, and ranks outside the top 20 in both DVOA and numberFire’s rankings. Devonta Freeman had a huge game against them, and backs are averaging a healthy 4.2 yards per carry with seven touchdowns on the ground, and another two receiving touchdowns, against the Cowboy defense. Lynch is matchup-proof anyway, but this positive matchup solidifies his status as a top play this weekend in any format. If for some reason he doesn’t play, Fred Jackson (FD $6,100, DK $3,000) is the guy you want, as Thomas Rawls is dealing with an injury and may be limited or out.
Pass Catchers: Jimmy Graham (FD $6,100, DK $5,100) leads the Seahawks in targets, yet has four games with five or fewer passes thrown his way. This passing offense is spread to thin to ever pay this much for a player, even a player as talented as Graham. And since I expect the Seahawks to have success on the ground in this game, I’m going to pass on the Seattle receivers entirely.
The Takeaway: Marshawn Lynch is a core play in any format in a positive matchup, but the rest of the Seattle offense should be reserved for GPP darts or for a spot on someone else’s lineup. The defense is in a great spot against the terrible Matt Cassel and a Dallas offense in disarray.
Dallas Cowboys
Quarterback: Matt Cassel (FD $6,200, DK $5,000) is bad. The Seahawks are good. Please don’t waste any more of your time with this matchup.
Running Game: Benny Cunningham was able to catch a few passes for a nice chunk of yards against this defense in Week 1, which would bode well for Dallas’ receiving back Darren McFadden (FD $6,400, DK $3,800) in PPR formats. But the Seattle defense ranks second in numberFire’s rankings and has allowed the second-fewest points in the league. They’ve allowed only two touchdowns to backs, both to Jonathan Stewart, and I don’t expect McFadden or anyone else on this offense to add to that total.
Pass Catchers: Jason Witten (FD $5,500, DK $5,200) is the lone Cowboy I would consider in any sort of serious daily fantasy lineup this weekend, as the Seahawks have an obvious problem defending tight ends, ranking 31st in defensive DVOA against the position. If Cassel is going to move the ball at all, it will be to his veteran tight end. Dez Bryant (FD $8,000, DK $8,000) may return for this game, but the matchup is too tough and his quarterback is too poor for me to trust him at all.
The Takeaway: If you’re not using the Seattle defense in a lineup, feel free to consider Jason Witten as one of your tight end options. Otherwise, avoid this offense against the Legion of Boom and the even more impressive Seahawk run defense.