RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down: Week 4
Jump to Page 1 2 3 4
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get three months of Grinders Incentives for free ($75 value).
INJURIES – I will update all notable injuries/suspensions on Saturday morning after we have final injury reports
Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals
| Miami Dolphins | Cincinnati Bengals | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 44 | 18.5 | -7 | 44 | 25.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 21.3 | 20 | 9 | 25 | Offense | 18.7 | 25 | 5 | 27 | |
| Opp. Defense | 25.0 | 20 | 13 | 18 | Opp. Defense | 22.3 | 15 | 20 | 31 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 29 | 17 | 23 | 29 | Miami Dolphins | 12 | 18 | 26 | 22 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Landry | 35 | 24 | 1 | 316 | Green | 32 | 22 | 1 | 295 | |
| Parker | 19 | 11 | 1 | 157 | LaFell | 15 | 9 | 0 | 164 | |
| Stills | 17 | 8 | 1 | 131 | Boyd | 15 | 11 | 0 | 120 | |
| Cameron | 11 | 8 | 1 | 60 | Eifert | |||||
Notable Injuries and Suspensions: Arian Foster (MIA RB) – Out (Hamstring) / Jordan Cameron (MIA TE) – Out (Concussion) / DeVante Parker (MIA WR) – Questionable but fully expected to play (Hamstring) / Jarvis Landry (MIA WR) – Questionable but fully expected to play (Shoulder) / Dre Kirkpatrick (CIN CB) – Doubtful (Hamstring) / Tyler Eifert (CIN TE) – Doubtful (Ankle)
MIA Matchup Rating: 5.0
CIN Matchup Rating: 6.0
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback: Last week was the week where a lot of folks opted to play Ryan Tannehill in cash games. It looked like a dreadful move through the first half, but Cleveland stayed close and the Dolphins had to keep the ball in the air after halftime. Tannehill finished with a very respectable 319 yard, three touchdown day, though he did throw two interceptions and also lost a fumble. I’ve never been a big supporter, and I don’t expect him to have the same success as the Dolphins travel to face a good Cincinnati team. Tannehill has struggled in his two road starts already this year, both of which came against very good defenses. Cincinnati isn’t quite on par with Seattle or New England, but they are capable of playing well, and they get Vontaze Burfict back this week. There’s no need to play Tannehill in Thursday lock contests.
Running Backs: Arian Foster is already hurt (no surprise). In his absence, Miami formed a committee of Kenyan Drake, Jay Ajayi, Isaiah Pead, and Damien Williams. None of the four saw more than nine carries, and none of the four topped forty yards rushing. This was in a favorable matchup against the Browns. This murky situation gets a big no thanks from me in Week 4.
Pass Catchers: This is definitely the most enticing spot to possibly play a Miami guy on your roster. Jarvis Landry is going to be a target monster in South Florida, and he had seven grabs for 120 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets last week. DeVante Parker will be a little more hit or miss, but he also found the end zone against the Browns, Kenny Stills was second on the team in targets and is also playing a big role. In fact, he has played on 98% of the team’s offensive snaps through three weeks. The Dolphins are going with a lot of three-wide looks and are phasing the tight end role down in their offense. Starting Cincinnati CB Dre Kirkpatrick has missed a few practices this week, so the receiving corps gets a boost if he happens to sit.
The Takeaway: Any of the receivers are in play here, with Landry being the safest cash game option and Parker and Stills better suited for GPPs. The team will likely lean on a pass-heavy approach given the uncertainty in the backfield, but this is not an ideal matchup on the road against a team which is getting its best defensive player back from suspension.
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback: It is easy to wring hands over the 1-2 start for the Bengals, but it’s not panic time just yet. They have lost to the Steelers (on the road) and the Broncos, two of the better teams in the league. That being said, this is a big home game for them, as they don’t want to start 1-3 overall and 0-2 at home. Miami ranks in the middle of the pack in pass defense so far this season, but they didn’t look good against the Browns a week ago. I am neutral on this matchup, and I likely won’t play Andy Dalton, who will be over-owned with the Thursday lock here.
Running Backs: This backfield is good, but it remains a committee approach with both Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard getting involved. Bernard has played on 55% of the snaps this year compared to just 45% for Hill, but a lot of this is game flow dependent. The Bengals have been playing from behind in each of the last two games, so Hill has seen fewer snaps. Hill is by far the better runner, as he had 17 carries for 97 yards and a pair of scores last week, while Bernard had just five carries for eight yards but also caught five passes. Both of these guys are hard to trust, but both of them are cheap on DraftKings and Bernard is cheap on FanDuel. If you think the Bengals will get a lead, I do like Hill this week, especially since Miami has allowed the second most rushing yards in the league. If you think they will fall behind, give Bernard a look. The uncertainty regarding playing time is what puts them both in the “GPP-only” tier.
Pass Catchers: The receiving corps is all about A.J. Green. He saw eleven targets a week ago against Denver, while the next closest wide receiver or tight end had four. Tyler Eifert is still nursing an ankle injury, Brandon LaFell is as inconsistent as they come, and Tyler Boyd is struggling to make an impact in the NFL. Green is a fine play in all formats based on the safety of his volume and his big game upside.
The Takeaway: A.J. Green is a safe play in all formats. The running game has a great matchup against Miami, but it is tough to predict who will play more as Bernard and Hill’s usage depends on game flow. They both make for fine GPP options, especially Hill, who has 100+ yard and multiple touchdown upside if the Bengals give him 20 carries.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
| Indianapolis Colts | Jacksonville Jaguars | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 49.5 | 26 | 2.5 | 49.5 | 23.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 27.0 | 5 | 8 | 23 | Offense | 18.0 | 26 | 12 | 31 | |
| Opp. Defense | 28.0 | 25 | 7 | 20 | Opp. Defense | 31.7 | 30 | 26 | 13 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 25 | 6 | 21 | 10 | Indianapolis Colts | 13 | 31 | 6 | 17 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Hilton | 34 | 18 | 1 | 294 | Robinson | 31 | 16 | 2 | 183 | |
| Dorsett | 15 | 8 | 0 | 151 | Hurns | 23 | 13 | 0 | 179 | |
| Bray | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | Lee | 18 | 12 | 0 | 141 | |
| Allen | 15 | 9 | 1 | 113 | Thomas | 17 | 11 | 1 | 148 | |
Notable Injuries and Suspensions: Donte Moncrief (IND WR) – Out (Shoulder) / Phillip Dorsett (IND WR) – Questionable (Ankle) / Julius Thomas (JAX TE) – Questionable (Elbow)
IND Matchup Rating: 8.5
JAX Matchup Rating: 8.0
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback: This is the annual game in London, so it starts in the early hours U.S. time. Perhaps the Colts will find a defense in London? I doubt it. The combination of poor defense and an inconsistent running game will continue to force the Colts to the air. Andrew Luck is well on his way to a fine fantasy season, and he already has two games of 330+ yards passing. Jacksonville’s defense has been a surprise disappointment so far this year, so feel free to use Luck if you think this game turns into a shootout. Keep in mind that he won’t be available for the big GPPs this weekend, because this game starts so early in the morning. You will have to use him (or anyone from this game) on a Thursday lock roster if you want heavy GPP exposure.
Running Backs: Sorry, but I am just not a believer in old man Frank Gore. After averaging more than four yards per carry for ten consecutive seasons in San Francisco, he dipped to 3.7 YPC last year in his first year as a Colt, and he sits at 3.9 YPC so far this season. There’s limited upside here, and he loses snaps in the passing game to Robert Turbin and Josh Ferguson. The Jaguars haven’t been as good against the run so far this year as they were a year ago, but we don’t have enough of a sample size that would make me trust Frank Gore.
Pass Catchers: With Donte Moncrief out of commission for a few weeks, we should see more reliable production from the other Indianapolis wide receivers and tight ends. Phillip Dorsett saw his snap percentage rise to a season high 87.3% last week, and the Colts are also running more two tight end sets with both Dwayne Allen and Jack Doyle. T.Y. Hilton went off last week for an 8/174/1 line on eleven targets, and the two tight ends combined to catch nine of eleven targets for 100 total yards. Dorsett was the odd man out against San Diego, but he will have better weeks. Even though Jack Doyle has been outperforming Dwayne Allen to this point, Allen is still the better bet for long-term production. One word of caution is required, though, as the Jaguars quietly have allowed the seventh fewest passing yards in the league to this point. Of course, some of that was attributable to the fact that San Diego blew them out, as Philip Rivers threw four touchdown passes despite only throwing for 220 yards. I am not going to be scared off the Indianapolis passing game in this matchup.
The Takeaway: Andrew Luck is going to put up monster numbers this year, as the Colts are going to have to score points to compensate for their awful defense. With Donte Moncrief out, expect T.Y. Hilton, Phillip Dorsett, Dwayne Allen, and Jack Doyle to soak up a ton of targets. There might be enough to go around for two or three of them to have good games every week. Don’t bother with Frank Gore.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback: This Jacksonville offense has arguably been the most surprising disappointment of the year to date. Blake Bortles was set to take another leap forward this year, but instead he has gone the other way. He made some very poor decisions last week against the Ravens, especially late in the game when the outcome was in the balance. This SHOULD be a “get right” spot against a truly awful Colts defense, one that is allowing 306 yards per game through the air so far. The team is dealing with some injuries on the offensive line, and that is a bit of a concern. Bortles has a price tag that is in free fall, so if you can peg the game where he gets everything working, he will be a massive value. That could be this week, but there is more risk than you would think on the surface given the way the Jacksonville offense has been playing.
Running Backs: It would be unfair to pin the struggles of the Jacksonville offense solely on Bortles and the passing game. A big part of the issue is that the Jaguars have not been able to establish the run at all. They rank 31st in the league in rushing yards (55 yards per game) and 31st in yards per carry (2.8). Those are ugly numbers. T.J. Yeldon has been awful. Chris Ivory rushed 12 times for 14 yards in his season debut. There is no reason to consider either player in what is going to become a time share until one guy breaks out.
Pass Catchers: The only bright spot that may have come from last week’s tough loss to the Ravens is that Allen Robinson finally had a big game. Bortles targeted him 11 times, and he was able to catch seven of them and parlay that into 57 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The red zone targets were a very encouraging sign. The problem is that I would expect him to be followed around by Vontae Davis quite a bit in this game, assuming Davis is healthy. That leaves opportunity for Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns, both of whom have been terrible this season. Perhaps Julius Thomas is the safest play from this bunch.
The Takeaway: The Jaguars have scuffled to an 0-3 start, their running game has been awful, their quarterback is making mistakes, and the one good wide receiver is likely going to see a lot of Vontae Davis’ coverage. Even against a bad Indianapolis defense, it’s difficult to trust the Jaguars in this spot. Blake Bortles can be stacked with one of his receivers if you are looking for a low-owned GPP combination with upside, but the Jaguars are a tough sell right now.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
| Tennessee Titans | Houston Texans | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 40.5 | 17 | -6.5 | 40.5 | 23.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 14.0 | 31 | 25 | 8 | Offense | 14.0 | 31 | 26 | 13 | |
| Opp. Defense | 17.7 | 7 | 1 | 26 | Opp. Defense | 19.0 | 8 | 11 | 17 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Houston Texans | 4 | 13 | 4 | 3 | Tennessee Titans | 6 | 5 | 16 | 11 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Matthews | 18 | 10 | 0 | 98 | Hopkins | 27 | 16 | 2 | 223 | |
| Sharpe | 25 | 14 | 0 | 157 | Fuller | 25 | 12 | 1 | 242 | |
| Wright | Miller | 6 | 2 | 0 | 9 | |||||
| Walker | 11 | 9 | 1 | 125 | Fiedorowicz | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | |
Notable Injuries and Suspensions: Delanie Walker (TEN TE) – Questionable (Hamstring)
TEN Matchup Rating: 3.0
HOU Matchup Rating: 6.0
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback: This game checks in with one of the lowest totals of the week at just a shade over 40 points. The Titans have a miniscule team total of 17 points, though that could rise a bit with the breaking news that J.J. Watt has reinjured his back and could miss the rest of the season. Still, I have no interest in an under-performing Marcus Mariota in a tough road matchup against a good defense.
Running Backs: If there’s one place you may want to look on this Tennessee squad, it’s with DeMarco Murray. His playing time bumped back up to 75% of the snaps last week, which is a healthy total for a #1 running back in today’s NFL. He ranks eighth in the league in rushing yards, and he has caught five passes in every game. He should continue to be heavily involved and be a safe DFS option, especially in full PPR formats.
Pass Catchers: There’s no reason to go here. Outside of Tajae Sharpe, there are no reliable options at wide receiver – and Sharpe had just three catches for 48 yards last week in a better matchup than this one. With Delanie Walker banged up, we can safely ignore him as well.
The Takeaway: Outside of DeMarco Murray, there isn’t much to like on the Titans side. Houston was going to be my favorite defense of the week, but I am still processing how much we need to downgrade them without J.J. Watt. Keep an eye on how much Tennessee’s team total moves throughout the week.
Houston Texans
Quarterback: It’s not all roses in Houston. The much-discussed move to get Brock Osweiler as the team’s starting quarterback has been unspectacular at best. The offense was a disaster last week against New England, but they do get a few extra days to prepare for this one since that was a Thursday game. Osweiler was awful in that game and did not even throw for 200 yards despite attempting 41 passes. With the low total in this game, there’s no reason to force Osweiler into a lineup in any format.
Running Backs: Lamar Miller remains one of the only true work horse backs in the NFL, as he is just one carry behind LeGarrette Blount for the NFL lead. That has him in the top five in the league in rushing even though he is only averaging 3.6 yards per carry. His volume and unquestioned role leave him squarely in play for all formats despite the fact that this isn’t the greatest matchup.
Pass Catchers: DeAndre Hopkins is the unquestioned #1 receiver on this team, and he is capable of a monster performance in any week. Even though I am not high on Osweiler here, that doesn’t mean I am not interested in Hopkins. You will likely be able to get him at a low ownership percentage, and there’s always the chance that he puts up a 12-150-2 type game. Alternatively, if you want a higher risk, lower cost option, Will Fuller should continue to see plenty of targets, too. He struggled last week against the Patriots, but he remains affordable and has big play upside.
The Takeaway: This isn’t the greatest spot in the world given the struggles of Brock Osweiler, but Houston’s production is consolidated via just a few players, which helps us for DFS. That puts Lamar Miller, DeAndre Hopkins, and Will Fuller in play. Hopkins is one of my favorite under the radar targets this week.
Cleveland Browns at Washington Redskins
| Cleveland Browns | Washington Redskins | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 46 | 19 | -8 | 46 | 27 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.0 | 26 | 24 | 4 | Offense | 22.7 | 18 | 2 | 29 | |
| Opp. Defense | 30.7 | 29 | 27 | 24 | Opp. Defense | 28.0 | 25 | 22 | 18 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Washington Redskins | 21 | 29 | 29 | 12 | Cleveland Browns | 24 | 19 | 30 | 21 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Pryor | 31 | 14 | 0 | 244 | Jackson | 23 | 14 | 1 | 238 | |
| Hawkins | 10 | 5 | 0 | 42 | Garcon | 20 | 13 | 0 | 135 | |
| Louis | 4 | 3 | 0 | 40 | Crowder | 25 | 16 | 2 | 175 | |
| Barnidge | 13 | 9 | 0 | 103 | Reed | 25 | 16 | 0 | 190 | |
Notable Injuries and Suspensions: Corey Coleman (CLE WR) – Out (Hand) / Joe Haden (CLE CB) – Questionable (Groin) / Josh Doctson (WAS WR) – Out (Achilles) / Bashaud Breeland (WAS CB) – Out (Ankle)
CLE Matchup Rating: 5.0
WAS Matchup Rating: 8.0
Cleveland Browns
Quarterback: The Browns are a bad team, but Cody Kessler didn’t look incompetent last week as the Browns almost pulled off an upset over the Dolphins. Kessler was 21-for-33 for 244 yards and did not turn the ball over, keeping his team in the game. Terrelle Pryor also took some snaps at quarterback, which limits Kessler’s potential. You don’t want to take a chance with Kessler.
Running Backs: Even though he is splitting snaps with Duke Johnson, Isaiah Crowell surprisingly ranks second in the NFL in rushing yards. He is also second in the league with a 6.1 YPC average, though a lot of that is attributable to his 85 yard run against the Ravens. This is a favorable matchup, as Washington is allowing 4.6 YPC this season. The problem is the snap distribution, as Crowell is only playing on 53% of the offensive snaps. With the Browns sitting as seven point underdogs in this one, you might see more of Duke Johnson, who is the primary passing down back. This is a spot that I will be avoiding.
Pass Catchers: With Josh Gordon suspended for one more game and Corey Coleman out for a month with a broken hand, it’s all about Terrelle Pryor. He caught eight passes on 14 targets a week ago. He took some snaps at quarterback. He had a rushing touchdown. He has the potential to be the entire Cleveland offense. He isn’t necessarily a bargain on FanDuel at $7,000, but expect Pryor to be one of the highest owned players of the week at $4,300 on DraftKings.
*The Takeaway:*The only player I am interested in is Terrelle Pryor, who could be the highest owned player of the week on DraftKings. He won’t be quite as highly owned on FanDuel with his much higher price over there, but he has the potential to put up massive numbers with Robert Griffin, Josh McCown, Corey Coleman, and Josh Gordon all out.
Washington Redskins
Quarterback: For the most time this season, this offense finally clicked against the Giants. Kirk Cousins threw for 296 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the game, and he did not turn the ball over. This will continue to be a pass-first offense, and Cousins has the weapons to put up big numbers. Cleveland ranks just 24th in pass defense so far this season, and Cousins get a big boost if Joe Haden happens to miss another week of action. Cousins is reasonably priced on both FanDuel and DraftKings and can be used with confidence in this matchup.
Running Backs: Washington will continue to lean on their passing game because the running game hasn’t offered much this year. This is also a pretty even time share between Chris Thompson (101 snaps this year) and Matt Jones (91 snaps). Jones is the primary early-down back and red zone guy, while Thompson plays in passing down situations and hurry-up spots. Jones is a little more expensive on both of the major sites, while Thompson is extremely cheap. You can consider both as GPP options in a favorable matchup, but it’s hard to trust either guy in a cash game.
Pass Catchers: Josh Doctson missed last week’s game, leaving a few more snaps for the other receivers in Washington. DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, and Jamison Crowder continue to see a hefty dose of snaps, with all three of them playing between 70% and 77% of the offensive snaps this year. Crowder is quietly becoming a reliable option, as he has seen at least seven targets in every game and has scored a touchdown in each of the last two. Jackson is having a great start to the year, while Garcon seems like an afterthought at this point. Jordan Reed was expected to be a fantasy star this season, and the usage is still there, but he hasn’t done much of note just yet.
The Takeaway: Cousins, Crowder, Jackson, and Reed can all be considered here against the Browns. The Redskins are projected to score almost 27 points in this game, and the offense is finally starting to click. I will avoid the running game, though you can consider either Jones or Thompson in a GPP setting. Washington should continue to get the offense rolling in this one.