The Fantasy Grout, Week 15 - What's Funny?

by Luke Louison (GiantBallofOil) Last Updated 2015-12-24 18:41:55

I guess you’d call Bo Burnham a comedian. He calls himself a musical comic, I think. The thing is that a lot of his stuff is just weird. Very clever with lots of wordplay, but weird nonetheless. For instance, this and this. In fact, he has a song called What’s Funny, which candidly isn’t that funny.

I bring all this up, first off to say I like this guy. He’s weird, and weird makes me chuckle. You should give him a shot. That third link is his whole hour-long show.

Also, I had to choose which article of mine to submit to the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, for consideration for their Humor Article of the Year. The problem was that I started to get really self-conscious about it. What do I write that’s funny? Is word play funny? Not really. Dad jokes are only “jokes” because they’re grandfathered in. (Funny? Clever, but not funny.) I made a joke about Jason Pierre-Paul that people liked. So there’s that.

Ultimately, I submitted that one-off article I wrote, called People Change. I’m going to ask you to do two things, if you don’t mind. If you do, I mean, I’m still going to ask you. I don’t have a way to do conditional formatting based you’re feelings about a request, so …. Anyway, two things: 1) Click on that article and give a (nother?) read. Easy enough, it’s short. Then, 2) head to Twitter and let @FSWA know your feelings about that article. It’s doesn’t have to be all good, but if it isn’t, feel free to make a typo in the spelling of “FSWA”.

I should say, “Yes.” It is kind of sad that I’m asking you to do this. I get that. The problem for me, is that a lot of what goes into winning these awards is networking and hobnobbing at these conventions. (“Hobnobbing” is for sure a funny word. For sure.) I never make those things, and I think it puts me at a disadvantage. I’m hoping you can at least help to offset that, 140 characters at a time. @FSWA. Thank you for reading.

RUNNING BACK

The Replacements, Starring Week 15

You know how the NFL gives names to linebackers? The Mike is the middle linebacker, while Sam and Will are strong-side and weak-side, respectively. It seems like the running back position should be named “Kenny”, because every week in the NFL ends like a South Park episode – ”Oh No! They Killed Kenny”

Seriously. Last week, it was Thomas Rawls, Jonathan Stewart, TJ Yeldon, and LeGarrette Blount. The week before that, it was Mark Ingram and CJ Anderson (and DeMarco Murray’s demotion). The week before that, both Cardinal backs. Not to mention Le’Veon Bell, Arian Foster, Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch, Dion Lewis, Justin Forsett, and Carlos Hyde. Let’s take inventory of where we stand, back-wise.

— 14 teams have a solid, bell-cow back: Falcons, Vikings, Rams, Steelers, Buccaneers, Bills, Dolphins, Cardinals (Yep), Jets, Cowboys, 49ers, Raiders, Ravens, and Colts.

— 6 teams have some version of a timeshare, devaluing all options, but where in the right weeks, they are still considerable: Bears, Packers, Bengals, Chiefs, Broncos, and Eagles.

— 8 teams have such a RB mess that it probably wouldn’t be redeemable even without a timeshare: Browns, Redskins, Saints, Lions, Chargers, Giants, Texans, and Titans.

— 4 teams just had an injury shake up roles in Week 14:

BRYCE BROWN, $BUPKIS & CHRISTINE MICHAEL, $NADA – They obviously are willing to feed one back enough to give him value. Lynch and Rawls both have proven that. The question now becomes whether it will be Bryce Brown or Christine Michael. Because both backs were added to the roster after prices came out, we get the luxury of a week where we can’t make a decision about it, to observe.

JAMES WHITE, $4,600 & BRANDON BOLDEN, $3,200 VS TEN – You would love to play a guy here, as a two touchdown favorite at home is a dream scenario. The problem – were you playing a lot of White or Blount before Blount went down? Me neither. Maybe because the New Blount is offered at such a discount, you might feel emBOLDENed … … to play him? (Funny? Not funny? Not funny.)

If you’re trying to make the case for Bolden this week, this is it. You used to play Blount in games you expected to be blowouts, with Blount icing the game away. A 14-point spread screams blowout. Also, last week, with the Pats handling the Texans, Bolden and Blount combined for 73% of the snaps and 84% of the running back touches. That’s compared to the Patriots loss the prior week, where Blount & Bolden accounted for 50% of the Patriots snap count and 59% of running back touches. Getting 73% of Patriot snaps and 84% of Patriot running back touches at $3,200 is feels like cheating, but maybe that’s just the “Patriot” part of the sentence. (That’s pretty good, right?)

I’m looking at Bolden in multi-lineup tournaments this week.

MIKE TOLBERT, $3,000, FOZZY WHITTAKER, $3,000, & CAMERON ARTIS-PAYNE, $3,000 AT NYG – I don’t know. The coach has said either Tolbert or Whittaker will start, but that Artis-Payne will see work. We were just warming up to Stewart, who had a hammerlock on the backfield usage. Now, that the backfield is a triple threat match, tag me out.

DENARD ROBINSON, $4,600 VS ATL – That escalated quickly. Robinson was more of a regular at the $3,000 price point than LMFAO is at Club LIV. Then, one knee sprain and poof. ”I’m at $4,600, b*tch.”

I suspect the reason or his depressed price prior, and his elevated price now, are the same, that the Jaguars want to stick with one back. And, oh to be the back facing Atlanta. Their 18 running back scores allowed leads the NFL. Their 94 running back receptions allowed leads the NFL. The matchup, it’s sexy and they know it.

Cash consideration, for me.

In Other Running Back News

BILAL POWELL, $3,600 AT DAL – Why do we pay for Randall Cobb? It’s because he’s the slot guy in a passing offense, who we expect to get a high volume of targets. In fact, we might even say that he has a high floor, as the shorter targets are more likely to be hauled in, and each reception is worth a point on DraftKings. Yes?

Here’s the thing. Over the last four weeks, Cobb’s gotten 9, 7, 5, and 12 targets, averaging 8.25 per game, at $6,000-$6,500ish in price. Over the same period, the four weeks that Bilal Powell has been back from injury, his target totals have been 7, 5, 13, and 5, averaging 7.5 per game, for $3,600.

Now, Powell gets a round peg-round hole matchup with Dallas, who has allowed the fourth most receiving yards to running backs this year. Even if they hand it to him a time or two, he’s averaged 5.42 per tote on 19 carries since returning from injury. Starting a third down back might not be optimal in a tournament, but even John Madden would approve if you played Bilal in cash games. Pow!..ell.

EDDIE LACY, $5,200 AT OAK – What do fat running backs and mopeds have in common? They’re both only fun to start and use until your friends find out. Case in point? I feel tremendous shame already, recommending Fat Eddie, despite his stellar production in his last three non-naughty games. Shhh. Let’s just keep this between you and me.

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WIDE RECEIVER

JOHN BROWN, $4,900 & MICHAEL FLOYD, $4,400 AT PHI – Rather than putting this into paragraph form, here’s the data dump.

WEEK14

WEEK13

WEEK12

How do you read that data? I look at it and see “Start Carson Palmer,“ but that’s a story for column of a different price point. I’m not concerned about the snap discrepancy, as that can be explained away on run plays. What does concern me? “Target-2, Reception-1, Yard-2”. For the first time in his life, I think John Brown is the safer play. Did I ever mention he’s so fast he blew the “h” right off the end of his alma mater’s name, Pittsburg State? I did? It’s still true. Or at least true.

KAMAR AIKEN, $4,600 VS BAL – Steve who? In the five games Aiken has played without what’s-his-name, Aiken has averaged 10 targets a game for 5.8 receptions and 68.2 yards, with a couple scores. He had 5-for-90 against Seattle, which means he is creeping into “The Volume To Overcome Any Matchup” territory. Fortunately, this week, the matchup has allowed the second most receiving yards to wide receivers this year. He could undercome the matchup, and still hit value.

DESEAN JACKSON, $4,500 VS BUF – We all know Dan Snyder is a crazypants, right? Any chance he could use Inception to make DeSean believe on every route he just fumbled a punt that cost his team crucial points? I’m just saying that after he fumbled that punt against Dallas, he ran about a 3.9 40-yard dash on a 9-route down the sideline. Agholor got loose for one last week on the Bills. Hopkins the week before that. Maclin tore them up the week before that. Etc. Etc. Etc. If DeSean plays, he’s the prototype receiver for large-fielded tournaments.

TIGHT END

WILL TYE, $3,100 VS CAR – Psst. Look at the other team. They have a very nice TE who refuses to dab and gets quite the target workload. But alas, when you consider only TEs at $4,500-or-less, look to this side of the line of scrimmage. I hope Eli hits the Giants tight end for a score, down seven, late. Then the announcer can say “Will Tye scores and the PAT will tie the score.”

By the way, if you’re curious of my opinion on going cheap at tight end?

QUARTERBACK

The George Clooney/Mark Wahlberg movie, “The Perfect Storm,” is based on a real 1991 storm, where the remnants of a hurricane merged with a severe nor’easter and formed a new unnamed hurricane, with 100 foot waves and 70 mph winds. Hurricanes don’t typically die down, run into another storm and requalify as hurricanes. It was the confluence of events leading to the storm, which earned it the name.

Quarterback pricing and matchups are experiencing a similar situation this week. While only 9-of-32 quarterbacks are out of our price range this week ($6,100+), nearly all of the defensive situations to pick on fall in that range. Of the top 14 matchups, in pure DraftKings fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks, eight of those nine QBs have one. Then, of the remaining six good matchups in the Grout price range, they line up with three backups (Brock Osweiler, TJ Yates, and Case Keenum), one guy with no weapons left (Philip Rivers), and two who don’t instill a lot of confidence lately (Matt Ryan and Alex Smith).

Also, those great matchups for the expensive signal callers marry up perfectly to the fact that most of the expensive receivers have tough matchups this week, freeing up salary for those that spend down at the position. The Perfect Pay-Up-At-Quarterback Storm. All of this can be summed up succinctly by saying Don’t Take My Advice. I’m going to offer it. Just don’t take it. Pay up at quarterback instead. (Did you see those Cardinal receiver stats?)

TYROD TAYLOR, $5,600 AT WAS – Now that I’ve said all that, time to recommend The Rod with conviction! I can hardly use the nickname ”The Rod” with conviction, as ”Tygod” has clearly won out. Let’s be real about problem with Taylor, it’s the volume. He hasn’t had more than 21 completions since week 4. He hasn’t thrown for 300 yards all year. He had 12 pass attempts in a win, six weeks ago. Brock Osweiler had 22 completions in the first half last week!

If you’re looking to be optimistic, here are some things to consider. What can Watkins not do? He’s gone for 348-and-4 over the last three weeks, despite not even averaging eight targets a game in that span. Also, in 7-of-11 games this year, Tygod has added 3+ DK points on the ground, including three scores. Moreover, the Redskins pass coverage unit has been worse lately, ceding a pair of 300 yard games in the last three, along with a five touchdown game, five weeks ago. Maybe, now that the Bills will be without the services of CB Stephon Gilmore for the year, this game devolves into a shootout? Maybe?

Look, it’s all I’ve got. Pay up at quarterback this week.

Tournament Stuff

DEREK CARR, $5,600 to SETH ROBERTS, $3,300 VS GB – I know it’s Cooper and Crabtree all day, every day, but with three scores in the last three weeks, I could see the Roberts stealing one.

PHILIP RIVERS, $5,500 to MALCOM FLOYD, $3,500 VS MIA – He’s got to throw it to someone. Even “off the street” is running low on receivers at this point.

THEO RIDDICK, $4,000 AT NO – Theo Huxtable. The Chronicles of Riddick. The Chronicles of Cosby. Yeah, there’s something funny in here somewhere, but think it’s best we just let it be.

ERIC EBRON, $3,000 AT NO – On my death bed, I’m going to look back over my life, see how many times I recommended Eric Ebron, and regret is going to sweep over me. One last time, for #Flowchart’s sake.

SHOUT FOR A GROUT

We’ve got two weeks of yelling to do, so let’s get at it.

In Week 13, some cheap tight ends got to the mid-teens, Will Tye, Scott Chandler and Vance McDonald, with McDonald leading the way. His 19.1, on a salary of $2,700, was good for 7.074 PT/$K. That, in turn, was good enough to get me to yell chaffy, and the top of my lungs. chaffy!!!!!!!!!!!!

(I just had some serious Iron Eagle flashbacks.)

In Week 14, we had someone spike an 8.0 PT/$K and NOT win. You picked a wide receiver who got two targets, ttrezza358, so even though Ted Ginn took those two receptions for 120 and two scores, you don’t deserve the win. You know who does? bigtimeslimjim & Grout-regular daveinchi1975. They picked Tyler Lockett, and Tyler Lockett picked this week to go for 8.971 PT/$K.

In your honor (and in Dean78904’s honor as well), HOLLA?

Now don’t forget to submit your Grout for a Shout pick. One player, total.

$6,000-or-less – Quarterback
$5,500-or-less – Running Back
$5,000-or-less – Wide Receiver
$4,500-or-less – Tight End