The Fantasy Grout, Week 17 - The Experience
This year has been quite a trying one for daily fantasy sports. Literally. It’s been legal situation after legal situation, country-wide, where we (read: expensive lawyers paid for with our rake) fought to “keep it legal.” By and large, I think we are winning.
Frankly, if we don’t win right now, I’m of the opinion we will eventually. The tides are turning, as gambling generally becomes de-stigmatized, and I believe we will look back to these days of patchwork legality as a novelty. When that happens, I’m told by Costanza Joe that daily fantasy will be “roadkill” in the wake of sports betting. He would know, as a horse racing writer, after all.
It is true that the volume of sports betting, both legal and less legal, far exceeds daily fantasy. I don’t expect that to change as the law evolves. Another thing I don’t expect to change? How fun it is to make a lineup. In with this player, out with that player. Correlate passers and receivers. Stack shootouts. Chase high totals. Follow injury news. Be contrarian. All the work/enjoyment that goes into making a lineup can’t be equaled by checking a side or a total.
Then, there’s the sweat. Last weekend, my brother-in-law and I made a trek to Lambeau Field. In the car, excited for the prospects of taking in a game at one of the most historic venues in sports history, we decided to throw a game stack in the $4. The first game between the two division rivals was 17-14 and the Vikings defense is legit, so we fully expected that $4 to return nothing. Still. Skin in the game.
What did it return? Exhilaration. You see, there’s something about being there, watching your lineup succeed that you don’t get on the couch or in the bar. Nothing was between Jordy Nelson’s two first half TDs and us except frosty air. When Aaron Rodgers ran one in, everyone cheered our profit! It’s unmatched. No matter what happens from a legal standpoint in the coming years, daily fantasy will always have a place. That is, as long as the process of building lineups continues to be great and as long as fans continue to game stack the games they attend.
Oh. In addition to exhilaration, it also returned $12. Who thought to play Adam Thielen?
Previously On The Fantasy Grout
How was your A-Rob Week? Was it as good for you as it was for me? Ironically, the key recommendation here last week was not a player, but rather a strategy play in the running back position summary:
“Sure, there’s only 15 starting running backs over $5,500, but that’s where all the good ones are. I’m partial to E. Elliott, D. Murray, and J. Howard this week, but you never need an excuse to play L. McCoy, L. Bell, and D. Johnson. Play them. Then, just read the next section for fun.”
If you took that advice, you were left with four players in the Yada, Yada section and four on Gang Grout. Of them, three were over 5.75 PT/$K (A. Robinson, Blake Bortles, and Cameron Meredith). Also, four expensive backs were over 28.5, including three over 30 (rinse, repeat).
If you’re getting the shakes and just need your cheap RB fix, this is the week for you. Just hold on a couple sections!
Also, the FAT (Find All Targets) Tight End strategy (belly) flopped. Well, sort of. Charles Clay, Eric Ebron, and Dennis Pitta all finished in the Top 5 in scoring for the position, driven by double digit targets. Finding them though, wasn’t exactly a cake walk, as all three saw sizeable, yet uncharacteristic, surges in volume from previous totals. Pitta, specifically, got nine more than the week before. If you went with the FAT strategy, you likely ended up as the biggest loser.
The Fantasy Grout
Week 17 has a distinct preseason feel. News is king, and information that is current on Friday morning probably isn’t good enough. Still, we’ll point you in the right directions. Make sure you get up New Year’s Day though. There’s work to be done! Because many will not be willing or not be able to make last minute adjustments, doing so will be pure value-added. Consider it a year-end bonus.
$6,000-or-less – Quarterback
$5,500-or-less – Running Back
$5,000-or-less – Wide Receiver
$4,000-or-less – Tight End
TIGHT END
The $4,000 price limit excludes only six tight ends this week, and two of them, Greg Olsen and Jordan Reed, currently combine for six functioning elbows/shoulders. While Olsen very well could sit out, Reed will likely suit up. Neither should be anywhere near your lineup though.
That means if you’re going to pay up, your options are Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, Kyle Rudolph, or Jimmy Graham. Personally, with all the value we’re going to find below, paying up for Kelce’s five yardage bonuses in the last six weeks at a $5,000 price seems like a deal, a …
YADA, YADA
Brandon Myers, $2,700 VS CAR – I think the Grout for a Shout game might be broken. It does no one good when a player like Myers is perfect for the game, but someone you really shouldn’t consider for your actual lineups. Anyway, this is me not recommending him, even though he’ll probably hit 4 PT/$K.
Jesse James, $3,000 VS CLE – This is the best flow chart ever.
The flow chart that says “Is the TE vs CLE?” -> “Yes” -> “Play Him” isn’t far behind, especially when you consider the Browns, just in the last three weeks, have given up as many touchdowns to the position as 15 teams have given up this whole year (4).
James is as uninspiring as Myers, but with the Steelers sitting everyone dot gif, who else is going to catch it? Plus, the Browns defense may actually carry a Champaign bottle onto the field, still celebrating their first 2016 victory from last week.
GANG GROUT
C.J. Fiedorowicz, $3,900 AT TEN – In high school, there was always one guy in your group that got picked on the most. If you got on a good riff, with everyone landing one-liners, eventually he got his feelings hurt. Then, someone had to step in and say, “That’s enough.” When I’ve suggested too many pass game options against the Titans, please, step in. With the way their season is going, their best remaining corner will probably get his feelings hurt and end up missing the game. (That player, Jason McCourty, is already looking like a game-time decision after missing Week 15).
Fiedorowicz, after missing Week 15 himself, where Tom Savage stepped in and force-fed DeAndre Hopkins the ball, returned in Week 16, immediately retaking his thrown as The Triple T – The Top Texan Target. The Titans have faced very limited competition from the position of late, but they were able to limit Kelce to only 41 yards (the outlier in the six-week stretch mentioned above). Still, if you were my son, I would suggest click The Triple T into your lineup …
WIDE RECEIVER
I’m going to miss A-Rob Week. I liked it a lot. Actually, you know what?
Unfortunately, DraftKings has taken from me the right to recommend him below, thanks to his $5,500 price tag. So, I’m recommending him here instead, where there are no rules! While we’re at it, Jordy Nelson has more red zone targets than the US had during the Cold War.
Also, “Here Lies Vontae Davis’s and Darius Slay’s Shutdown Corner Titles. 2015 – 2016. R.I.P.”
YADA, YADA
There are so many cheap options this week that I have to start with a speed round of guys who didn’t make the cut: Steve Smith – $4,900 (There’s so much narrative that traffic is at a standstill), Anquan Boldin – $4,100 (The Slot vs GB = Jackpot), Eli Rogers – $4,000 (Jesse James can’t catch every ball), Chris Hogan – $3,900 (led NE in snaps last week when Malcolm Mitchell was active), and Quincy Enunwa – $3,800(Could the Jets go with 1-WR sets due to them only having 1 healthy receiver?).
Will Fuller, $4,500 AT TEN – “It’s okay Titans. We’re just joking…”
Geronimo Allison, $3,000 AT DET – I’m not going to tell you what to yell as you YOLO-Click Allison in. I think you can figure that out. With Randall Cobb out last week, he got 73% of snaps, going 4-for-66. This week, in a must-win game, you don’t have to question his motivation either. Instead, a better question:
GANG GROUT
Brice Butler, $3,700 AT PHI – No play on today’s slate feels more preseason-y than this one, as you have to patiently wait for your guy’s turn. When Butler does step in, maybe in the second drive and maybe in the second quarter, he’ll face a team that has allowed a 95-yard receiver every week since Week 10 (that wasn’t played in monsoon-like conditions). Given that one-third of his catches this season have gone for 19+ yards, he’s very likely to catch a long one, especially against this secondary which Pro Football Focus has given the grade of …
J.J. Nelson, AT LA – Pop Quiz! What’s the correct reason to play J.J. Nelson this week?
A) Four Weeks – Four Touchdowns
B) Over 70% of snaps in each of two games since Michael Floyd was cut.
C) If the playing him doesn’t work, his 4.28 40-yard dash is fast enough to change the spin of the world, reversing time. You know, so you can swap him out.
D) EJ Gaines – The premiere D)E. J. DB, mixing in huge Gaines to small and big receivers alike. Wicka, wicka, wicka.
E) Cuz Stone Cold @ScottBarrettDFB said so!
It’s E. Welcome back, Buddy.
RUNNING BACK
You pay up at running back. That’s just what you do. Right?
Here’s the thing though, who do you buy this week? Bell is sitting. McCoy with no one around him? Gordon, injured? Elliott for three carries? Freeman in a split? The answer is David Johnson. The only answer. So much David Johnson. All of the David Johnson. Then, if someone doesn’t use all the David Johnson, you reach your fork over to their plate and stab their extra David Johnson. Lock-Button.
Why? As it was explained here, Bruce Arians gets his guys to milestones:
David Johnson will have 160 yards receiving this game. Now, onto the Grout!
YADA, YADA
DeAngelo Williams, $5,500 & Fitzgerald Toussaint, $4,400 AT CLE – Williams is equal parts “A Much Better Player” and “Coming Off an Injury,” which makes this situation a bit challenging. Here’s how you proceed. If we get no news, you have to play some Williams; the role of Steelers lead back is too valuable. If you get news one or the other will get the lion’s share, all aboard. If you get news that it will be an even split, you can think about fading both.
Jerick McKinnon, $4,000 VS CHI – This guy says he switched from Verizon to Sprint because they have 99% of the reception, for half the cost. Over the last four weeks, McKinnon has 139% of Mike Evans receptions, for half the price. Can you hear me now?!
GANG GROUT
Rex Burkhead, $3,500 VS BAL – Damn you, DraftKings for not getting Brandon Burks into the player pool in time, preventing us from assembling Team Burka for Week 17. I guess, it’s probably for the best. A white dude wearing this, just to cheer on his fantasy team isn’t exactly PC.
Meanwhile, in every game but his last, Burkhead has averaged at least 4.6 yards PC (per carry). He’s in-line to get most of the running back work if Jeremy Hill can’t go, and Hill PC (probably can’t). The Ravens aren’t a great matchup, but it’s hard to pass on lead duties for $3,500, which is PC (pretty cheap). If Hill’s out, play Burkhead. You’ll PC (probably cash) which will be PC (pretty cool).
Byron Marshall, $3,000 VS DAL – Boy’s Lie. So does Doug Pederson. For weeks, he told us Ryan Mathews was his lead back, when Darren Sproles was. Then, he finally told us it was Sproles and immediately Charlie Browned that football on us again. Now, he says this.
“Right now the plan is [RB] Darren [Sproles], but for sure see Byron [Marshall] a little bit more on first and second down probably, and even in some third-down situations,” Pederson said at his press conference on Wednesday. “He’s been here all season and went through camp with us and is very familiar offensively with what we’re doing, been in all the meetings, and [Eagles RBs coach] Duce [Staley] does a great job of getting those guys prepared. So, his role will obviously pick up a little bit more this week.”
The question:
If you do, you should play Marshall because the Cowboys 1) will sit key defensive pieces and 2) won’t be able to play keep-away as effectively with backups in on offense. Whether I do or not will be answered shortly.
QUARTERBACK
Last week, you would have read Blake Bortles’ name right here in this column. He ended up as the sixth highest scoring quarterback in Week 16, and the third-highest scoring Grout QB. How, you ask? That’s a good question. You try to figure it out. His line, straight from DraftKings:
I see 13 points in yardage + the 3-point bonus + a 4-point TD + .7 in rush yards = 20.7. Weird huh?
I, of course, recommended him because in addition to that line, I knew he’d catch a 20-yard TD. Tricky Jags!
Any way, there are only 10 quarterbacks priced at more than $6,000, but many of them have a green number next to their name and a reason to go all out this week. With all the viable minimum priced guys at other positions, it might not be a bad idea to spend a few bucks for your signal caller.
YADA, YADA
Tom Savage, $5,400 AT TEN – Remember Simon? You had to memorize and repeat the chain of different colored lights, which grew by one link each time. I’m doing the same thing with “Bad QBs With Good Stats vs Tennessee.” I’ve memorized this far: Kessler – 336/2, Bortles – 337/3, Barkley – 316/3, Siemian – 334/1, and Bortles – 323/2 (Total). That ignores Rivers, Rodgers and Luck averaging 300-and-2 against them. The perfect way to complete the Simon chain is to have Texan linebacker John Simon Dontari Poe the final score.
That said, it’ll probably just be Savage throwing for 325-and-3. /shrugs/
GANG GROUT
Carson Wentz, $5,200 VS DAL – After throwing at least 36 times in every game since Week 8, Wentz only let 24 fly with an early lead against the stingy Giant defense last Thursday. Now he’s at home, against a leaky Dallas secondary that has nothing to play for. This is a better spot to get right than the Betty Ford clinic.
Just as a side note, I sure am rooting for Wentz. I love saying “Wentzlvania.” I like the idea of a Bison succeeding in the NFL. I can’t help but support red heads, as my dad is a card-carrying member. Then, there’s this story.
And you thought R. Kelly had it bad, trapped in a closet!
MY GROUT FOR A SHOUT
I DO feel lucky. Give me Byron Marshall.