The Relief Brief: Monday, August 1st

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-08-02 02:22:55

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

This article will feature three main topics.

1. Bullpen Highlights

— Bad SP combined with bad/tired bullpen

— Bad SP combined with elite bullpen

— Elite SP combined with bad/tired bullpen

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

— Call-ups & Expectations

— Other Roster Movement

3. Other Notes and insights that I find along the way.

Feel free to comment with any other ideas for this article that you would find useful in your own daily research.

Monday night features an eight game slate. While I won’t break down every bullpen situation, we will begin with the bullpen highlights as described above. Let’s get to it!

1. Bullpen Highlights

Danny Duffy has been rock solid for the Royals. Through 14 starts in 2016, Duffy has thrown over 100 innings (nearly six and a third innings per start). In those 14 starts, he has only given up more than three earned runs on two occasions. Tonight he will face Tampa Bay, who has a top five wOBA against left-handed pitching. The Royals bullpen has been struggling a bit lately, but has been able to spread the workload, so the key arms should be relatively fresh tonight.

Young Jose Berrios continues to be one of the most highly touted pitching prospects, but has yet to translate that into success in the big leagues. He undoubtedly has the talent and arm ability to see success, but through four starts in the majors, he hasn’t seen pitched out of the sixth inning. The Minnesota bullpen sits right around league average in most categories, though they do surrender the fourth most HR/9 (1.31) in baseball. As a team, Cleveland has the 9th most dongs in baseball.

Adam Conley takes on the Cubs at Wrigley Field tonight. Conley’s base stats and peripherals are considerably worse on the road, and tonight he faces one of the best lineups in baseball (.345 wOBA vs lefties). The Marlins bullpen has improved all season long, and while they are not an elite group, they have some solid numbers including a 25% strikeout rate. Still, I don’t see them as a bullpen to fear, especially considering their extremely heavy workload in their series against the Cardinals.

Archie Bradley has gone for six or more innings in nine of his 14 stats on the season, which is not bad. In those 14 starts, he has given up four or more runs on five occasions, which is also not terrible. What is terrible is his .387 wOBA to left-handed bats. The Nationals are a below average offense against right-handed pitching (.312 wOBA), but they do have a few lefties who can mash. Also, this is a Diamondbacks bullpen that has been brutal since the All-Star break, and is showing no signs of improvement.

Jarred Cosart started his first game since late April last week against the Phillies. Unsurprisingly, he pitched well, giving up three hits through five innings (against a woeful offensive lineup). In 2015, Cosart started 13 games. In those 13 games, he went for more than six innings just once. He’s not exactly a workhorse. The Padres are a bottom ten bullpen that is coming off of a weekend where they a massive workload.

Eduardo Rodriguez has nine starts on the season, and has exceeded six innings just once. In those nine starts, he has given up at least one dong in eight of those (12 total). The Mariners have average numbers overall against lefties, but E-Rod struggles against lefties and righties alike. The Red Sox bullpen is on the mend, and may be looking up, but they have shown kinks in their armor over the last week (blowing consecutive saves and being forced to turn to the likes of Clay Buchholz in competitive games).

James Paxton has above average stuff, but he doesn’t have the consistency in executing his pitches yet. In eleven starts on the season, Paxton has gone for six or more innings on six occasions, but has only thrown less than five innings on one occasion. He’s shown solid peripheral stats as well. The Mariners bullpen was forced to work a lot on Friday and on Sunday, and may be firing on fewer than all cylinders tonight, but they are still an elite group (third best SIERA, second best strikeout percentage).

My Top Bullpen 3 Bullpen Situations To Attack

1. Arizona Diamondbacks

2. Minnesota Twins

3. Miami Marlins

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

There have been many roster moves made since the article was published on Friday. I’ll do my best to recap the trades, though more moves will be made in the coming days.

The Nationals acquired Mark Melancon from the Pittsburgh Pirates. Melancon will step in to the closer role in Washington. It’s a significant downgrade to a bullpen that is already weak in Pittsburgh, while it’s a nice boost for an already strong Nats’ bullpen. Tony Watson is expected to closer for the Pirates.

The Cleveland Indians acquired Andrew Miller from the Yankees. Miller is expected to close out games for the Indians. It is a nice boost for Cleveland and a significant loss to the once elite Yankees bullpen that has now shipped out two thirds of their late inning committee of Betances, Miller and Chapman.

The Yankees acquired Tyler Clippard from the Diamondbacks, which puts an exclamation point on the downgrade for the Yankees bullpen.

The Cardinals acquired Zach Duke from the White Sox. Duke has been excellent against right-handed hitters as well as lefties, so he may fulfill more than just a specialist role.

3. Other Notes and insights that I find along the way.

It has nothing to do with pitching, but the Baltimore Orioles have the lowest team wOBA in baseball over the last two weeks.

The Cincinnati Reds have the third highest team wOBA in baseball over the last two weeks (followed by the Brewers in fourth place).

The Minnesota Twins bullpen have surrendered the most hard contact in baseball at 34.1 percent.

Feel free to follow me and ask me questions on Twitter – @collinman005

Legend