Week 10, In Which You Simply Think For Yourself
He yelled at people. It was just what he did.
I don’t know – maybe it made him feel bigger, stronger, more important. You’d have to ask him why he did it (or…don’t ask him; he might yell at you if you do).
This is not normal behavior for a high school math teacher, but whatever.
Lie to him about having gum in your mouth during class? He might pull you into the hall and yell so loudly that other teachers up and down the hall have to peek out of their room to make sure everything is okay. Get caught whispering something to your neighbor while a problem is being demonstrated on the board? This might be grounds for you to be pulled into the hallway and yelled at until you fear for your life.
Females were his favorite target. Not the pretty ones (they seemed to get away with whatever they wanted in his class), but the girls who were maybe a bit more awkward or a bit less “high school attractive” – yeah, these were the girls who were in danger. At least two or three times each school year, you could bank on him bringing a female to tears.
I nearly stepped into his line of fire once myself. It was my first week in his class, and I had turned in my homework. He called out my name from the front of the classroom. Everyone looked at me. Everyone looked back at him.
“Where’s your work?” he said.
“Sorry?”
“You don’t have a worksheet attached. You need a worksheet, showing how you did this problem.”
“I don’t have a worksheet.”
“Step out into the hall.”
He used to leave the door to his classroom cracked open when he pulled students into the hall. I guess he wanted an audience; he wanted maximum impact.
Once we got into the hallway, he asked again about the worksheet. Once more, I told him I did not even know what he meant.
His anger was percolating. He was getting ready to scald me. If you don’t have a worksheet, how do I know you didn’t cheat? You need a worksheet that shows you worked out the problem yourself!
Oh. Is that what a worksheet is for? I can show you how I did the problem…
So I walked him through it. I didn’t have a worksheet because I had done it all in my head; I always did math problems in my head. I guess that wasn’t normal, but it was perfectly normal to me.
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My mind has always worked a bit differently, I guess. I have approached problems differently than those around me (sometimes for better, sometimes for worse). I have attacked life differently than most others I know. And I often think through things in whatever way makes the most sense to me, without bothering to worry too much about the way others would approach things.
When I first started playing DFS, I did the same thing. This was back in the DraftStreet days, and I would break down the MLB rosters each night of the guys who seemed to always be winning (Notorious, STLCardinals84, etc. – recognizing, as we all should, that “thinking for yourself” does not mean “thinking you know more than people who clearly have more experience and know more than you”). I would then ask myself, “What sort of statistics would have led me to the plays these guys were on today? What do I think these guys were looking for in the matchups that caused these players to stand out to them?” Then, I would use that information as a starting point, and I would aim to come up with “favorite plays” each day of my own. Before long, I had a whole research system that – now that I know how others approach things – was completely different from what most others were doing. As such, I would end up on plays that no one else was on.
Heck, I remember the first time I won a Qualifier on DraftStreet; it was a Sunday, and I had stacked the Braves’ right-handed bats (Justin Upton, Melvin Upton, Chris Johnson, etc.) against Franklin Morales in a late-afternoon game. After the early games drew to a close, I texted a buddy of mine to let him know it looked like I was going to win my first Qualifier. The Braves game had not even started, but I knew I was going to get a good game from those guys, and all of them were low-owned enough (with enough high-owned land mines having already blown up rosters in the early games) that I was certain I was set.
Here’s the crazy thing about that, though: I didn’t “go out of my way to be contrarian.” I simply did my own research, thought for myself, and played the plays I felt made the most sense. For whatever reason, those plays were contrarian that day – but I didn’t say, “What can I do to be different from everyone else?” Instead, I simply thought for myself.
Once you immerse yourself in a field, it becomes easy to move away from “thinking for yourself.” It becomes easy to balance your thoughts with what you know others are thinking. In fact, I could contrast that story of my first Qualifier win with the story of my bottom-tier payout at the DraftKings MLB live final in Toronto this summer. That day, the Red Sox had a tough on-paper matchup with stud lefty pitcher Danny Duffy. As I began to dig more deeply, however, I started thinking…“Wow. I think the Sox righties are one of the best plays on the day.” I decided to dig even deeper. Yup. Everything pointed to a Red Sox stack being a strong play.
But no. You can’t pull the trigger on that, JM. You must be missing something; no one else will even consider playing the Red Sox today, and you’re going to feel like an idiot when you’re completely wrong.
The Red Sox scored seven runs in five innings that day against Duffy. The top four right-handed bats in their order combined for nine hits, three home runs, four runs scored, and seven runs batted in. I talked later to a buddy of mine who had used the Red Sox that day, and he said something to the following effect: “The crazy thing was, I knew the Red Sox would go off, but people seem to overlook all the numbers that pointed to that play, so the Sox ended up going under-owned.”
Hey. That sounds an awful lot like the way I approached DFS almost three years ago…
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The other day, @Smartwater sent me the following quote from Peter Thiel’s Zero to One:
“The most contrarian thing of all is not to oppose the crowd but to think for yourself.”
Obviously, this applies to many areas of life – but we’re not here to deal with “many areas of life.” We’re here to deal with DFS.
Far too often in DFS, it’s easy to get caught up in the thinking that says, “Everyone is talking about this play – and I’ll regret it if I do not play it.” Alternately, it’s easy to think, “I like this play, but it’s going to be too popular – so I need to fade and find a pivot.”
But is that really how we should be approaching DFS?
What if, instead, we all simply thought for ourselves?
What if, instead, we did not choose to oppose the crowd, but instead chose to not even give a second thought to what the crowd is doing?
What if you built what you felt was the best roster(s) you could build? What would change in your bankroll? What would change in your level of DFS success?
This week, I want to encourage you to simply think for yourself. This week, ignore the noise. If you like a player more than any other play, play him. If you don’t care for a player, fade him – and don’t worry one bit about how the rest of the field will approach things, or whether your team is “too conventional” or “too contrarian.”
This week, I challenge you to be contrarian by simply being the only you that exists, and by attacking the slate in whatever way you would attack it.
This week, I challenge you to build a team you love – and to not look back.
Starting. Right. Now.
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QUARTERBACKS
The quarterback position is a bit strange this week, as this is one of the first weeks all season I have not liked many of the options available. As such, we’ll have a fairly narrow list here – but, hey! – that’s sort of the whole point, right? We want to narrow down the field of available players to the smallest, sharpest list we can create, then we want to build the best team we can build from there.
There are five main guys who stand out to me at quarterback, and because two of them are playing in the same game as one another, we will start with them:
The Packers’ pass defense has not been as bad as the public wants to pretend (the Packers rank 16th in DVOA against the pass – though they do rank 26th in yards allowed per pass attempt), but with how solid their run defense is, the Titans (who are one of the run-heaviest teams in football) should be filtered toward the pass a bit more than normal. On top of this, Derrick Henry is likely to miss this game, and while DeMarco Murray can carry a large workload, the Titans are going to be likelier to pass when Antonio Andrews is on the field than they would have been with Henry spelling DeMarco. Mariota is my favorite low-cost QB, in what should become a fairly aggressive offensive game.
Of course, the reason we expect this to become a fairly aggressive offensive game is pretty simple: the Titans are solid against the run (12th in DVOA) and poor against the pass (27th in DVOA), while the Packers have no real run game even with James Starks likely to return. Aaron Rodgers should have a healthy group of weapons this week, and he is likely going to be able to post a strong game against this secondary. This could lead to the Titans becoming a bit more aggressive than normal, which will make both quarterbacks valuable assets.
I’m a bit “borderline” in the way I feel about Carson Palmer – but I like him enough that he at least belongs on this list. No team in the NFL has been worse at defending the deep-middle and deep-right portions of the field than the 49ers, and last year’s version of Carson Palmer would have ripped these areas of the field to pieces. Of course, this year’s version of Palmer has looked wobbly and unpredictable when throwing deep, which makes him more of a tourney play for me this week than a cash play – but with the Cardinals projected for around 75 plays, we should see a good 40 pass attempts for Palmer. Against this defense, that should be enough for him to post a big game – even if he is not quite the guy he was last year.
The super-stud quarterback who seems to be going overlooked this week is Cameron Jerrell Newton. Cam Newton, of course, is quarterbacking a team that reached the Super Bowl last year, yet suddenly finds itself in a spot where every game is a “must-win.” As such, we should see an all-out approach from this offense the rest of the way – and while the Chiefs have a solid pass defense, their run defense has been particularly weak this year. Especially with the Chiefs playing a lot of man coverage, there should be open lanes for Cam to run, and I expect him to take full advantage.
Finally, Mr. Tom Brady. Shall I just run through the numbers? In Brady’s last two games against Pete Carroll’s Seattle team (the Super Bowl two years ago, and the 2012 “U Mad, Bro?” game in Seattle), he has thrown the ball 108 times, while notching over 700 yards and accounting for six touchdowns. I know, I know – the Seattle pass defense is legit, and we don’t typically want to mess with it. True. But any time we can expect the Patriots to abandon the run and throw 50+ times, Brady is in play – and that puts him strongly in play this week.
RUNNING BACKS
I’ll let others talk about the reasons we like some of the low-cost running backs this week (Chris Ivory, Rob Kelley, Darren Sproles, etc.), but I like enough lower-priced wide receivers (and love enough of the higher-priced running backs) that I’ll take on the task of running through some of the guys with loftier price tags. I’ll go with five guys again – which leaves me not mentioning Le’Veon Bell, so I’ll add that he’s always (always!) in play, given his usage; I just like these other guys a bit more.
Jordan Howard is the first guy we should talk about – before we forget…as it seems that everyone has forgotten about him. In his last game – with Jeremy Langford and Ka’Deem Carey healthy and active – Howard touched the ball a ridiculous 30 times (26 carries, four catches). I do see this as a tourney-only play, as John Fox can never be trusted to do the right thing (after all, Howard basically split touches with Carey the previous two weeks), but for a guy who has a tremendous offensive line (which – by the way – just returned a pair of Pro Bowl guards in Josh Sitton and Kyle Long) and a solid matchup, and who may see 25 or more touches, we’re going to see some silly-low ownership. Think for yourself – and consider getting Howard on your team.
Ezekiel Elliott is always an obvious name – but that does not mean he will be an obvious candidate for roster spots this week. With everyone looking to pay up for Mike Evans and David Johnson (and others looking to be contrarian with Julio Jones and Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell, etc.), there is going to be less ownership on Zeke than we have been seeing lately. The Steelers can comfortably be labeled a “non-awful” run defense, but matchup has not mattered this year for Zeke and the Cowboys’ stud offensive line. Zeke is a strong bet for 100 yards and a touchdown once again in a game in which his team will be focused on holding onto the ball and keeping Ben Roethlisberger off the field – and his upside is a whole lot higher than that.
Not that we have to look to a “lower-owned” option at the high end of the price range. This week, I’ll probably let others get fancy and fade David Johnson, while I take the certain 20+ points and move on. While writing the NFL Edge this week, I tried to find a team in recent history that has allowed more rushing yards per game than the 193 yards per game this year’s 49ers have allowed. What did I find? Well, I found that Chip Kelly’s Eagles ranked dead last in 2015…but they allowed “only” 134.6 rushing yards per game. And I found that every run defense in the last 10 full seasons has been at least 20 yards per game better than this year’s 49ers squad (the worst we’ve seen in the last 10 seasons was the 2006 Colts, at 173 yards allowed per game). And after that, I stopped searching, as it was just getting too ugly for me to continue on. While David Johnson may be lifted in the fourth quarter if this game turns into a blowout, he should get a good 28 to 30 touches before that point…against a historically bad run defense. DJ also leads the NFL in carries inside the five-yard-line and inside the 10-yard-line. Everything sets up perfectly for him in this spot.
Also out west is a game in which two running backs appeal to me – and I’ll roll them into a single paragraph. Those running backs, of course, are Jay Ajayi and Melvin Gordon. No one in the NFL has been a more integral part of his offense over the last month than Gordon, and there is no reason to expect that to discontinue in what is yet another solid matchup (the Dolphins rank 16th in DVOA against the run, and they rank 26th in yards allowed per carry). On the other side, the Dolphins have won three straight games…while calling passing plays only 44% of the time during that stretch (to put that in perspective: the Cowboys have the lowest passing play percentage in the NFL, at 48%). The Dolphins’ offensive line ranks second in adjusted line yards, and Ajayi has Pro Football Focus’ highest rush grade on the season, making this yet another great spot for him. Both of these guys are in play this week.
WIDE RECEIVERS
I said I like some lower-priced receivers, so I guess that gives me a responsibility to talk about some of these guys. Sure, Julio, Antonio, and Evans are strong plays. So is Jordy Nelson, and so is Alshon Jeffery. But who is hanging out at the lower reaches of the price range?
We’ll start with Dontrelle Inman, who should be in for a solid workload this week with Travis Benjamin expected to be inactive (and sure to be a decoy if he plays at all). There isn’t a whole lot to say here, really: the guy should see six to eight targets (with upside for more looks than that), from a great quarterback. What more do you want?
Cordarrelle Patterson is also in play this week – yes, that Cordarrelle Patterson. Last week, Pat Shurmur unveiled his short, quick-hitting, West Coast offense, which is going to emphasize more passing, with these passes being of the short, quick variety. While this is obviously a boost to Stefon Diggs, this is also a boost to Patterson, who saw eight looks last week (including an end zone target he just barely failed to snag), and who has game-breaking ability with the ball in his hands. With the Redskins’ defense sure to be focused on Diggs, Patterson could be in for a big day.
J.J. Nelson is surely not going to go overlooked, as people will want some pieces of this Cardinals’ offense outside of just David Johnson (and people will need to find places to save in salary this week). With Michael Floyd playing like a guy who just wandered in off the street, and with John Brown likely to be kept below a full share of snaps, Nelson should once again operate as the clear number two receiver. This should translate to at least six targets, with upside for a lot more than that – and he has the speed and upside to bust through this weak San Francisco secondary.
Rishard Matthews also deserves a mention this week, as he has become the de facto number one receiver for the Titans. Matthews has more snaps than Kendall Wright each of the last three weeks, and he has more snaps than Tajae Sharpe each of the last two weeks. He has seen recent target totals of 10, four, and seven, and he runs most of his routes on the right side of the field – which is where the Packers’ pass defense is weakest.
Finally, we’ll lump “Chiefs wide receivers” into one basket. Jeremy Maclin is likely to miss this week, the Panthers are likely to score points against the Chiefs, and the Chiefs are likely to have a difficult time running the ball against the stout Panthers’ front. All of this should add up to create more passing than we typically see from the Chiefs, with these targets having to go to guys who do not typically see a ton of looks. Last week, the snap share went Chris Conley first, Albert Wilson second, and Tyreek Hill third, though I expect the offensive focus through the air (outside of Kelce, of course) to go Conley, Hill, then Wilson. (Note: Conley is banged up as well – so make sure he’s active before rostering him!) These are still riskier, tournament plays on an offense that is not particularly awesome at moving the ball through the air – but any of these guys could go off for 100 yards and a touchdown, and ownership is certain to be low.
TIGHT ENDS
This is actually a week in which there are several tight ends worth paying up for. Rob Gronkowski has a difficult matchup, but as we explored earlier: Brady is likely to throw a good 50+ times. This makes Gronk a strong play regardless of matchup, as it will not be surprising if 10 of those looks flow toward him.
In that same game, Jimmy Graham is viable and valuable. The Patriots play a bend-but-don’t-break style of defense, which helps explain how they rank seventh-best in yards allowed per pass attempt…while ranking 18th in total passing yards allowed per game. The Pats have allowed the eighth-fewest passing touchdowns on the season (again: “Bend but don’t break”), but Jimmy could easily fall in for a score here, and he should certainly be able to rack up yards between the 20s regardless.
Greg Olsen is a guy who will go overlooked this weekend, in a “tough matchup” with the Chiefs’ defense that has long been solid against the tight end position. There are two things here that make Olsen a bit more appealing than many will expect, however. One is the guaranteed target share (he has seen at least seven targets in all but one game this season), but the other is the fact that Eric Berry and the Chiefs have actually not graded out that well against the tight end this year. The Chiefs rank 22nd in DVOA against the tight end, and they grade out as one of the worst teams in football defending the deep-middle of the field, which is where Olsen spends a lot of his time.
Antonio Gates is also in play – as he is every week at this point. He is the preferred red zone target for Philip Rivers, and Travis Benjamin is likely to miss this game, which will filter even more targets toward the old man in the middle. What more do you need to know?
Finally, the least-sexy pick of this article is saved for last: Lance Kendricks. Early in the week, I was less interested in Kendricks, as the Rams are looking to run the ball more. With the Rams passing a ton the last couple weeks, Kendricks averaged 10.5 targets per game – while I expected his targets to drop into the (still usable, but less exciting) six-to-seven range this week. But with Todd Gurley now banged up (and possibly even set to miss), passing could be the name of the game once again for Jeff Fisher’s boys- and this could lead to a good 10+ targets for Kendricks, for some non-sexy, but solid, floor and ceiling.
But don’t take my word for it! – Instead, you should simply think for yourself.
See what happens – and I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend.