Week 6, In Which We Trust Our Research
I thought about retiring.
Not really. But really.
Last week, after I posted my “Week 5, In Which We Watch Movies” article, I told my wife I would be unable to top that article. I said, “I should probably just retire.”
The problem was not that the article was particularly good. It was, instead, that the article was really quite clever…
…and I’m not an especially clever person.
I marvel at the Fantasy Grout article penned each week by GiantBallOfOil. The amount of sharp, clever humor in that piece is astounding.
I have some friends who are similarly clever/funny in text messages and emails. It’s impressive to me. It’s also exhausting.
I have tried in the past to be clever myself. It doesn’t work. Sure, I stumble into a clever quip from time to time, but the odds of me generating consistent cleverness are about as long as the odds of me winning the lottery (and considering I have never bought a lottery ticket in my life, those odds are long indeed).
Furthermore, the odds of me devising, then following through with, then successfully pulling off an entire article that is centered around a clever idea (for example: something like, I don’t know…telling you about some of my favorite tourney plays one week through the lens of “what their favorite movies probably are”) – yeah. Those odds are pretty long as well.
What can you really do the week after an article such as that one?
Retire? Play sick? Pretend to be dead?
Those were all considerations. I am, after all, guaranteed to disappoint those of you who are returning this week in search of more cleverness. My stores are depleted for the next couple years.
Since I cannot execute further cleverness, however – and since I did not particularly want to retire, play sick, or pretend to be dead – I decided to follow the only remaining road that makes sense. I decided to go the complete opposite direction of last week’s article. I decided to simply sit down across from you and share a few of my thoughts.
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Feel free to pull up your favorite chair. Feel free to pour yourself a hot beverage – or an adult beverage; your choice. Get settled in. I have a story to tell you – it’s not long, and it’s not boring, I promise; but you may as well be comfy while I tell it. Do you need to put on your slippers? Do you need to take off your clothes? – actually, let’s skip that step; I’ll feel awkward if I am sitting here fully clothed while you sit naked across from me. But otherwise, do what you need to do to get comfy. I’ll wait.
.
.
.
You good?
You ready?
Story time – let’s go.
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This last weekend was the worst NFL DFS weekend I have ever had. How bad was it? I’ll tell you:
I won less than 2% of my head-to-heads. Obviously, I lost all double-ups and crashed in tourneys.
But that wasn’t the worst part. The worst part was, it was one of my best weeks. The NFL Edge was completely on point. Cameron Meredith was my top-ranked point-per-dollar wide receiver. And I spent Saturday evening and Sunday morning talking various friends onto Theo Riddick, Cameron Meredith, Sammie Coates, Ben Roethlisberger, and Devonta Freeman. (I even told several people on Sunday morning that I liked Meredith just as much with Eddie Royal active as I did if Royal had been inactive.)
By the time games kicked off on Sunday, I had none of those guys on the main roster I had in play.
Somehow, I had Aaron Rodgers instead of Ben Roethlisberger.
Somehow, I had Jordy Nelson instead of Brandon Marshall.
Somehow, I had Robert Woods instead of Cameron Meredith.
Until last week, I had literally never once rostered Jerick McKinnon before; I don’t like Jerick McKinnon, but I rostered him on Sunday.
In the Week 5 NFL Edge, I talked about how poor C.J. Anderson looks right now with the ball in his hands. I paid up for him anyway.
On Saturday night, I went for a walk to finalize my thoughts, and I settled on Martellus Bennett as my tight end for the weekend. By the time I made it home and set my roster, Bennett was not the body I put in that slot.
We’ve all had weekends like that – and moreover, we’ve all had to endure friends complaining about such weekends. We don’t care, right? No one wants to hear about your season-long fantasy team, and no one wants to hear about your bad DFS weekends. Those two rules are the pillars on which fantasy-related relationships stand. So I’ll stop now with the breakdown of where I went wrong last week – but I wanted to bring it up, because it all flows into what I want to talk about this week.
Fear.
“Say what?”
Fear.
I feel like I write some variation of this article each season. Sadly, I write it when I need to read it myself.
I say “sadly” because, optimally, I would not need to read this article each season. Optimally, I would learn the lesson once and be fine moving forward.
Realistically, however, I fall into this trap at least once each season – and I require this reminder. If you have not yet reached a point where you “require this reminder” yourself, I encourage you to bookmark this week’s article. Come back and read it when the time is right.
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Last year, I had three losing weekends all NFL season (yes – as a single-lineup DFSer).
The year before, I had five losing weekends all season.
I have already had three losing weekends this year. Through five weeks. And there is absolutely no mystery as to why…
You could probably guess the reason, but I’ll tell you anyway:
FEAR.
It’s a funny thing. Well…maybe not funny. I’m not laughing. But most of the time, my worst days in NFL or MLB come on the days I have most successfully diagnosed the manner in which the slate is likely to play out. Usually, on the days my NFL Edge or MLB Edge is sharpest, I crash with my own teams. Typically, when I have a lot of players I feel certain about, I fall apart as I construct my roster.
Fear.
I get scared to trust myself – my own research, my own thoughts. I get scared to stick with what makes the most sense to me. I become certain that I must be missing something; I must be wrong.
Funny (well…maybe not funny), but I am typing this paragraph as the Broncos-Chargers Thursday Night Football Game nears halftime. I started this article just as the game was beginning.
Right before I started this article, I swapped off of Hunter Henry in my Monday-Thursday DraftKings lineup – moving onto Devontae Booker. Had I stayed with Henry, I would currently be sitting in first place in a Qualifier. I literally had Henry in my lineup since Monday evening, but after my team had a great start Monday night (and after not even thinking about this team all week), I suddenly – just a half hour or so before the start of this game – thought, “What am I doing? – Hunter Henry is a dumb play!”
That’s what last weekend was like for me.
That’s also what the DraftKings live final was like for me in MLB (when I went to bed with a team that would have generated six home runs from the first five guys on the roster…and instead ended up with a team that notched zero home runs altogether) – and that’s honestly when all of this started. After the DraftKings live final, I had very little time to play MLB before NFL began. The one day I was able to play, I went to bed with a team that would have won $20k, and (can you guess where this is going?) by the time the games started the next day, I had moved off that team completely and ended up winning nothing. Then, NFL started; and the lack of trust in myself continued.
“JM – remember. Trust your research!”
People say this to me every once in a while on Twitter. Typically, when they say this, they are quoting articles in the past in which I have said exactly that.
Feel free to quote that to me again – because that’s what I am saying now.
Trust. Your. Research.
This week, I have made an effort to not dwell too heavily on last weekend’s mistakes. After tonight, I’ll make an effort to not dwell too heavily on my Hunter Henry mistake. I will instead turn the page; I’ll move forward; I’ll make a conscious effort to trust my research.
And I’ll encourage you to do the same.
This week, as you move through your thoughts on each game, and as you work to uncover the players you like the most, pay attention to the guys you think have a shot at picking up a tournament-winning game. Think about the players you think can truly take you to the top of the leaderboards. Try to figure out who can break out for you this weekend in a big way – then, once you identify one such player, stop. Add that player to your list. And trust that they belong there.
I’ll do the same – I promise. And I’ll meet up with you at the top of the leaderboards when the weekend concludes.
In the meantime, let’s take a look at some of the guys my research is leading me to at the moment – some of the guys who have made their way onto my list…
QUARTERBACKS
Cam Newton at Saints – $8,100 DK / $8,900 FD
Across his last two games at the Superdome, Cam Newton has totaled nine touchdowns, 557 passing yards, and 132 rushing yards. That was before the Panthers had a bad pass defense of their own that could increase the likelihood of a back-and-forth affair.
Obviously, Cam is clearly a strong play. No one will dispute that. No one is overlooking that fact. But in tourneys this week, there will be enough people who look to be contrarian, and there will be enough people who simply do not want to pay this much for a quarterback, that Cam’s ownership should still be somewhat palatable. And sure, I get it – I don’t particularly enjoy paying up for quarterbacks myself. But this is a game the Panthers desperately need to win, and I expect them to ride Cam hard. The Saints rank 26th in pass defense DVOA and 30th in run defense DVOA – each of which helps Cam this week. And while Jonathan Stewart is expected back (if you’re an NFL Edge reader, you know why we should have interest in him as well), Cam is the star that should shine brightest in this game.
Get your popcorn ready. It should be fun.
Tom Brady v Bengals – $7,700 DK / $9,000 FD
Surprise!
The Bengals currently rank in the bottom half of the league in both pass defense DVOA and yards allowed per pass attempt.
The Patriots are at home, in Angry Brady’s second opportunity to stick it to the league.
Wait. I’m missing something. There was one more thing I wanted to mention…
Oh! – I remember what it was:
Everyone is ready to jump off Brady and move over to Cam Newton and Drew Brees this week. I definitely get it; I have no arguments against Cam and Brees, in what should be a shootout in New Orleans. But we should also keep in mind that we don’t need Brady’s opponent to be competitive in a game right now in order for him to keep passing and putting up numbers. Each Patriots game can essentially be considered a “shootout” at the moment, as the Patriots will remain aggressive throughout, regardless of the score.
Because of that, Brady has as much upside as any quarterback this week. And, yeah. He’s going to be far lower-owned than Cam in tourneys. I like Cam a bit more in a non-game-theory sense. But there is still an excellent chance Brady outscores his higher-owned counterpart – and if that happens, those who are on him will reap the rewards.
Tyrod Taylor v 49ers – $5,300 DK / $7,800 FD
Although the 49ers play at the fastest pace in the NFL, they actually rank only 15th in total plays, as their opponents are generally able to dominate time of possession against a weak 49ers defense that has only gotten weaker through injuries as the season has moved along. The Bills, meanwhile, rank 29th in Passing Play Percentage (meaning that only three teams have called for a pass with less frequency than the Bills). While this may seem to hurt the outlook for Tyrod, I really don’t mind it at all, as he is a big part of the Bills’ rushing offense, and he should be able to have his way against this defense – picking up a solid floor with his legs, while adding to his ceiling with his arm.
There are two ways this game could play out with Colin Kaepernick on the other side.
1) Kaepernick could perform as poorly as reports out of San Francisco suggest he has looked in practice, which will give the Bills plenty of time with the ball, and will make it easy for Tyrod to rack up points a little bit at a time, all game long.
2) Kaepernick could recapture his rookie form and make a game out of this, which will force Tyrod to become more aggressive and pick up points in chunks.
Either way you cut it, this is a great situation for the man once known as TyGod.
While it is tough to pay down when Cam and Tommy are begging for our attention up top, I like Tyrod this week as a guy who can, at worst, post a solid point-per-dollar game, and who also has the upside to post one of the top raw-point scores on the weekend.
RUNNING BACKS
Christine Michael v Falcons – $6,800 DK / $7,400 FD
People seem to be forgetting about this man. This wonderful man who looks like he’s shot out of a cannon. This marvelous man who should see over 20 touches against the Falcons’ poor run defense (24th in DVOA, 22nd in yards allowed per carry). What’s more, people seem to be overlooking the chances that the Seahawks control this game from start to finish. Yes, the Falcons are 4-1 – but let’s take a look at the defenses they have faced:
Week 1: Buccaneers – 21st in defensive DVOA; 23rd in pass defense DVOA
Week 2: Raiders – 28th in defensive DVOA; 29th against the pass, 21st against the run
Week 3: Saints – 26th in defensive DVOA; 26th against the pass, 30th against the run
Week 4: Panthers – 13th in defensive DVOA; 22nd against the pass
Week 5: Broncos – 3rd in defensive DVOA; 20th against the run
The Broncos are the only truly great defense the Falcons have faced – and if you’ll notice, the Broncos have (quietly) been as weak against the run as the Panthers have (loudly) been against the pass. The Broncos’ other weakness? – defending running backs out of the backfield. The Falcons beat the Broncos by (surprise) handing the ball off to Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman 29 times, and throwing it to them another 11 times (out of 28 total passes). Point being?
Point being, the Seahawks rank first in overall DVOA (yes, only two spots above the Broncos, but…), with the first overall pass DVOA and fourth overall run DVOA. If the Falcons have a tough time scoring, there will be little need for the Seahawks to go over the 35.5 pass attempts they are averaging per game – which will mean plenty of work for Michael.
Lamar Miller v Colts – $6,600 DK / $7,900 FD
“Remember me?”
If Lamar Miller cared about his DFS ownership, that would probably be his thought.
Just a few short weeks ago, we were all excited about Lamar Miller – about his usage, about his talent, and about his overall upside. The Texans then faced a Bears defense that was much better against the run at the start of the year before sustaining heavy injuries, followed by a game against the (floundering, but still talented) Chiefs defense, followed by three straight matchups against top-12 run defenses according to DVOA – the Patriots (eighth), the Titans (12th), and the Vikings (fifth). Miller’s usage is still intact. His talent is still intact. His overall upside is still intact. And – oh, yeah. Now he gets to take on a Colts defense that ranks 31st in run defense DVOA.
A breakout game is coming at some point for Lamar Miller. We should not at all be surprised if this is the week it happens.
Jordan Howard at Jaguars – $6,200 DK / $7,700 FD
Sure – it’s an obvious name. But what’s wrong with obvious? Brandon Marshall was obvious last week. So was Sammie Coates.
For that matter, so was Jordan Howard.
Last year, the Jaguars were one of my favorite teams to fade running backs against, as the three-touchdown game Doug Martin posted against them early in the season led many to imagine they were awful against running backs, when in reality, they spent the entire season in the top five in yards allowed per carry.
This season, however, things have shifted. Suddenly, the Jaguars rank seventh in pass defense DVOA and third in yards allowed per pass attempt. But they rank 29th in run defense DVOA – and while their actual yards allowed per carry does not tell quite the same story, their rank of 14th there still backs up the idea that this is a beatable matchup. What’s more, Howard has one of the largest and most secure running back workloads in the NFL. Is he as talented as Le’Veon Bell? I’m pretty comfortable answering “No.” But while everyone else is scraping around trying to figure out a way to pay up for Bell, you can recognize that Howard is locked into a similar workload, in a better matchup. That spells a potential tourney-winning play.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Amari Cooper v Chiefs – $7,500 DK / $7,100 FD
Sammie Coates, Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Keenan Allen…
Oh, sorry. I was just running through the list of wide receivers who have managed to put together solid outings this year against the Chiefs’ man-coverage corners.
This year, without Justin Houston, the Chiefs have been unable to exert the same type of pressure they are normally able to get on opposing quarterbacks. That already puts pressure on man-coverage corners. What’s more, the Raiders just happen to have allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL this year – with what may be the best offensive line in football, and with Derek Carr boasting excellent pocket awareness.
All that to say: Carr will have time to allow plays to develop. And with enough time, Amari Cooper will be able to work open against Phillip Gaines and Marcus Peters.
While it’s true that Amari is a name many will be looking toward, it is also true that a lot of people will be working so hard to fit in the ludicrous salary at which Antonio Brown is priced, they will end up moving right past a lot of the mid-range receivers. This provides a perfect opportunity to grab Amari at lower ownership than he really ought to have.
Terrelle Pryor at Titans – $6,100 DK / $7,000 FD
Remember a couple weeks ago when the discussion was whether or not it was even possible to fade Terrelle Pryor? Sure, he was a little bit cheaper, but the gap in price between “then” and “now” is not massive; certainly, it’s not great enough that this guy is suddenly unplayable – and yet, he is going hugely overlooked.
Before last week, when the Patriots (as we knew they would) prioritized taking Pryor out of the game, he had seen target totals on the year of seven, 10, 14, and nine. I know Cody Kessler is not necessarily the arm you most want to trust. I also know the Titans currently rank eighth in DVOA against the pass (they do rank 19th in yards allowed per pass attempt, but this has been more about “a couple lapses per game that led to big plays” than it has been about consistently poor performance). But Pryor is a huge chunk of the Browns’ offense, and he should see close to (or over) double-digit targets once again this week, against a couple corners in Perrish Cox and Jason McCourty whom he can certainly beat. At low ownership, and with the after-the-catch upside Pryor has, I will be giving this play a long, hard look as Sunday draws near.
Will Fuller v Colts – $5,900 DK / $6,900 FD
Remember how the Colts rank 31st in DVOA against the run? Yeah. They also rank 30th in DVOA against the pass. The Texans have scored fewer touchdowns per game than any other team in football, and I will not argue against the idea that there are some broken components on this team at the moment. But this is still a team with an offensive mastermind at the helm in Bill O’Brien, and it is a team with an extremely narrow offensive distribution. We know that the ball on this team is going primarily to Miller, Fuller, and DeAndre Hopkins, and I will likely be on at least one of these guys this weekend. This is a classic “get right” spot in a game the Texans desperately want to win – a game against the one team in their division with a serious shot at keeping them from finishing the year at the top…a team that is very much not good on the defensive side of the ball. This is a great bounce-back spot for this Texans team as a whole, and I plan to be there when it happens.
TIGHT ENDS
Travis Kelce v Raiders – $5,000 DK / $6,400 FD
Kelce has exactly seven or eight targets in every game this year. That’s not “great” news (though it’s certainly not bad) – but if you want some actual great news, it’s this: Kelce has eight red zone targets on the year. That’s an average of two per game.
Oakland is currently a bottom-ten team against the tight end (DVOA) – and while they’re basically a bottom-ten team in every way on defense, this does not change the fact that this is a good matchup for Kelce.
Somehow, Kelce continues to go overlooked – but you can “catch Kelce” this week (get it? – you know, because he’s on a reality television show at the moment…called “Catching Kelce”…in which girls fight for his attention…).
I feel like I should write more here, but that really covers it all. So I’ll just leave you with this:
Jimmy Graham v Falcons – $4,900 DK / $6,900 FD
In Week 3, I started thinking about Jimmy Graham on Saturday night. I toyed around with the idea of rostering him that week, but I just could not pull the trigger.
In Week 4, I liked Graham again, but I figured I had missed my opportunity to get him at low ownership in tourneys. I could not have been more wrong.
This week, I immediately identified Graham as one of my favorite plays. Then, I thought, “Too bad he’ll be massively owned.”
But actually, most ownership projections I have seen this week have Graham going overlooked. Again. After 17 targets over his last two games, and after back-to-back 100-yard games. So…yeah.
Graham is taking on a Falcons defense that ranks 22nd in DVOA against the tight end, and while I don’t expect the Seahawks to have to pass a ton in this one, Russ will still, easily, end up with over 30 attempts. And that is still, easily, enough for Jimmy to see another eight targets – and to have a great shot at 100 yards and a touchdown once again.
Delanie Walker v Browns – $5,500 DK / $6,700 FD
The Cleveland Browns are a bottom-three team –
I guess I could stop that sentence right there. That’s pretty all-encompassing. But that’s not where I was going.
Here, let me try that again:
The Cleveland Browns are a bottom-three team against the tight end (DVOA), and the tight end just so happens to be the only aerial weapon the Titans can really, effectively use with any sort of consistency.
While the Titans are obviously going to work to control this game on the ground (the Titans rank fourth in time of possession and fourth in total rushing attempts), this is a situation for Delanie that is very similar to the situation Jimmy has above: Mariota should still throw the ball close to 30 times, and that will still mean a chunk of targets going Delanie’s way.
I won’t argue against the idea that Greg Olsen is appealing this week. But all of these guys have the same ceiling this week that Olsen has – and each guy will cost less and carry lower ownership along the way.
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The Thursday Night Football game has ended. I am happy (and relieved) to be able to tell you that I would have lost the Qualifier with 2:07 remaining in the game had I trusted my research and stuck with Hunter Henry. Obviously, I made less money on the night than I should have made, but the lesson would have been a lot more painful if “a missed Qualifier win” would have been the punishment for failing to trust my research.
I’m turning the page. I’m trusting my research this weekend.
Feel free to do the same – and let’s see where it takes us.