10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for August 10th
This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Thursday, August 10th.
1. Take a look at Danny Salazar’s contact rate over the past four seasons:
2014 – 76.9%
2015 – 76.3%
2016 – 76.3%
2017 – 67.5%
Salazar has seen a massive improvement in contact allowed this season, with hitters making contact on less than two-thirds of the pitches he’s thrown, which would rank second in MLB (trailing only Kluber at 65.8%) if he had the innings to qualify. He’s always had swing-and-miss stuff, but since coming off the DL on July 22nd, he’s turned it up to 11 (or 12, I guess, as he struck out a career-high 12 batters in his last start against the Yankees. Sorry – I couldn’t resist the This Is Spinal Tap reference). Salazar’s 39.3% strikeout rate over his last three starts is the highest of any three-game stretch in his career, and on Thursday, he gets a dream matchup against the Rays. All year, Tampa Bay has ranked near the top of MLB in strikeouts against righties (25.0%, third-highest in MLB), and they’ve been struggling in all areas over the past 30 days, ranking dead last in wOBA (.287), 25th in ISO (.145), and 28th in wRC+ (79). Even though he no longer comes at a discount, Salazar is arguably the top option on a day full of elite arms.
2. One of the “elite arms” mentioned above is James Paxton, who has exceeded six innings without allowing a home run in seven consecutive games; that’s the longest streak since Zack Greinke and Jake Arrieta did it in the second half of the 2015 season. During that span (which dates back to July 2nd), Carlos Martinez (9), Chris Archer (7), Jacob deGrom (7), Yu Darvish (7), Jon Lester (7), Corey Kluber (6), and Max Scherzer (6) have all allowed at least a half dozen homers, and Paxton hasn’t let a single ball leave the yard. Of course, there’s more to being elite than suppressing home runs. But Paxton passes the test in essentially any metric you can find, ranking second in MLB in ERA (1.59), first in wOBA allowed (.201), first in slugging percentage allowed (.214), fifth in strikeout rate (31.0%), second in walk rate (4.1%), and 11th in hard hit rate (28.7%). On Thursday, he’ll face a nearly entirely right-handed lineup, and that should be just fine with Paxton; on the year, the lefty has an elite 30.8% strikeout rate against opposite-handed hitters. Given the Angels’ low 19.6% strikeout rate against southpaws, Paxton may not have the upside of Salazar. But he’s pitching at home, and he’s the largest favorite of the day (-210 at time of writing), which makes him an excellent cash game play, even at his elevated price tag.
3. Since June 25th, Sonny Gray has a 20.5% hard hit rate; that’s the lowest rate among qualified pitchers in MLB during that stretch. He’s been dominant in other areas during this span, as well, posting a 1.59 ERA, 60.3% ground ball rate, 0.40 HR/9, 2.66 FIP, and .214 wOBA allowed. Unfortunately, as has always been the case with Gray, the 23.5% strikeout rate falls just short of being elite, which makes him more suited to cash games than GPPs. His opponent on Thursday, the Toronto Blue Jays, ranks 20th or worse in wOBA (.313) and wRC+ (92), and they strike out at a reasonable 20.5% clip against righties. While Gray should be able to limit the damage, making him fine for cash games, he falls below some of the other elite options on the slate (Salazar, Paxton, deGrom, Darvish) in terms of upside.
4. Since the Fourth of July, Lance Lynn has a 1.48 ERA in 42 2/3 innings pitched; only Luis Severino (1.36) has a lower earned run average during that span. Now, there are plenty of indicators – the .225 BABIP, the 87.6% strand rate, the 4.70 xFIP – that suggest Lynn is due for some regression. And what’s more, his 17.1% strikeout rate during this stretch means that, while he’s been elite at run prevention, his upside has been capped. But it’ll be tough to fit in two high-priced pitchers in at two-pitcher sites, and Lynn, at just $7,800 at DraftKings and $15,000 at FantasyDraft, makes for a fine SP2 option. He’s a modest home favorite, and the Royals have the fourth-lowest implied run total of the day at 4.00. From an individual pitch standpoint, Lynn’s steady reliance on three variations of fastballs should play well against Kansas City: the Royals are tied for last in MLB (with San Diego, no less) with a team wOBA of .322 against the three variations of fastball that Lynn throws (four-seam, two-seam, cut fastball).
5. Nelson Cruz’s 47 home runs against left-handed pitching since 2014 lead all MLB hitters…and it’s not close. The 12 home runs that separate Cruz from second-place Todd Frazier and Chris Carter (35 apiece) is the same gap that separates the Frazier/Carter combo from the group of players that rank 32nd on the list, with 23 homers against lefties. Angels lefty Tyler Skaggs is far from a gas can, but anytime Cruz faces a lefty, he’s immediately one of the top plays of the board. With a pair of two-homer games in his last four, Cruz has been red hot at the plate recently, and another homer on Thursday would surprise nobody.
6. Last season, the Los Angeles Dodgers hit 37 home runs against left-handed pitching; with 49 games still to play in 2017, the Dodgers have homered 56 times against left-handed pitching. The Dodgers were historically poor versus southpaws in 2016 (.275 wOBA, .118 ISO, 72 wRC+), and they’ve completely turned that around this season (.348 wOBA, .212 ISO, 116 wRC+). With a massive park upgrade against Arizona’s rookie lefty Anthony Banda, the Dodgers make for a fantastic stack. Among higher-priced Dodgers, Justin Turner (.508 wOBA, .368 ISO, 9.2 K%, 222 wRC+ vs. LHP in 2017) is one of the top overall plays of the day, while Corey Seager (.423 wOBA, .256 ISO, 166 wRC+ vs. LHP in 2017) and Cody Bellinger (one HR every 12.3 at-bats against LHP) are lefties who aren’t bothered much by the lack of a platoon advantage. But if you’re looking for a salary saver, look no further than…
7. Kike Hernandez, who, in 389 career plate appearances against left-handed pitching, has posted a .371 wOBA and .255 ISO. Among players with at least as many plate appearances as Hernandez against lefties since his MLB debut, here are the six players besides Hernandez who have posted a .371+ wOBA and .255+ ISO: J.D. Martinez, Nelson Cruz, Kris Bryant, Josh Donaldson, George Springer, and Nolan Arenado. If there was a Hall of Fame for lefty mashers, those six would be first balloters, and Hernandez has quietly kept pace with each of these lefty killers. Almost regardless of lineup spot, Hernandez is in play for cash games or tournaments given his low price tag.
8. After doubling off of Miguel Gonzalez last night, Alex Bregman has 16 extra-base hits against just six strikeouts over the past 30 days. Houston keeps toying with DFS players by moving him near the top of the lineup, only to drop him back to the bottom of the order the following day. Against White Sox lefty Carlos Rodon, Houston has the highest implied run total of the day at 5.16 runs. If he’s somehow batting high in the order, Bregman’s high-contact approach makes him an ideal cash game play. However, the real value may lie if he’s batting in the seventh slot (as he was yesterday) or lower, which would suppress ownership to a large degree.
9. This season, Manny Machado has 88 batted balls with exit velocities over 95 mph that have resulted in outs; that’s the most in MLB (and 13 more than second-place Robinson Cano, with 75), and just one fewer than he had all of last year. Machado has been an exemplar of why it’s important to look beyond surface stats this year. After “struggling” with low batting averages in April (.224), May (.191), and June (.242), Machado has exploded with averages of .327 in July and .382 in August. Athletics right-hander Paul Blackburn has excelled at run prevention in his first seven starts at the big-league level. But he’s not fooling anybody; his 5.26 SIERA and impossibly low 9.7% strikeout rate tells the real story. Machado and the Orioles have a healthy 4.72 implied run total, and despite the negative ballpark shift, Machado is an excellent (and likely low-owned) option at third base.
10. Since July 22nd, seven players (min. 60 PA) have a .390+ wOBA and .350+ ISO: Paul Goldschmidt, Giancarlo Stanton, Alex Bregman, Justin Upton, Josh Donaldson, Willson Contreras, and … Matt Chapman, aka “Mr. $2,000 at DraftKings” (he’s actually $2,300, but “Mr. $2,300” didn’t have the same ring). Chapman continues to be an elite bargain at the hot corner, still priced near the minimum at DraftKings despite his continued production. Sure, Chapman isn’t a perfect player, and this sample is so small that he may not even be a very good player when it’s all said and done. But he’s been productive, he hits the ball hard (as evidenced by his 11 barrels since the All-Star break – only Harper, Gallo, and Stanton have more), and he’s got the platoon advantage against a bad lefty. Wade Miley has a .376 wOBA and a low 18.7% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this year, and Chapman (along with other underpriced A’s righties like Ryon Healy and Marcus Semien) are one path to fitting in two high-end pitchers on sites like DraftKings and FantasyDraft.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!
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