10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for June 5th
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This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Monday, June 5th.
1. Since 2015, only two pitchers (min. 200 IP) have a 55.0+ GB rate and sub-26.0% hard hit rate against righties: Dallas Keuchel and Carlos Martinez. But while Keuchel’s strikeout rate hovers around league average (21.7%), Martinez’s is near elite (26.4%). Martinez has only allowed 12 home runs in 905 right-handed batters faced during that stretch. On Monday, Martinez travels to Great American Ball Park to take on the Reds, who, with Scott Schebler and Billy Hamilton injured, may field only one truly dangerous left-handed bat in Joey Votto (sorry Scooter Gennett). It’s not a perfect spot for Martinez, as he gets a severe ballpark downgrade. But to be honest, there’s nobody else that even resembles an ace on Monday, which makes Martinez the top cash game option almost by default.
2. In his last two starts, Sean Manaea has pitched at least seven innings, recorded eight or more strikeouts, and allowed one earned run or fewer. It’s the first time an Athletics pitcher has put up such a line in two consecutive games since Scott Kazmir did in 2014. Manaea seems to be in the middle of a breakout campaign, and he’s been essentially unhittable for lefties, allowing them to slash just .057/.167/.135 against him. Unfortunately, his matchup with Toronto on Monday should feature few lefties. Instead, he’ll face a steady diet of right-handed lefty mashers like Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales, and Troy Tulowitzki. It’s worth noting, though, that Vegas does like him, as he’s a slight home favorite against J.A. Happ. He’s super interesting for tournaments, though he’s far too risky for cash games.
3. Dan Straily’s 11.9 swinging strike rate is 0.2 points lower than Lance McCullers’s, his 25.7% strikeout rate is 0.2 points lower than Yu Darvish’s, and his 21.0% soft contact rate is identical to Jon Lester’s, Max Scherzer’s, and Marcus Stroman’s. He’s quietly putting together an excellent 2017 campaign, and because of the lack of options, he’s certainly in play. He’s better suited for tournaments, though, as he has the third-highest fly ball rate in baseball, which makes me nervous even with the wind blowing in at Wrigley.
4. Bartolo Colon’s 6.99 ERA is way higher than last year’s 3.43 mark. To bring his 2017 ERA below his 2016 mark, he’d have to throw 58 consecutive shutout innings. I’m not holding my breath. One of the culprits of Colon’s disastrous season is that his two-seam fastball (his most-used pitch) is getting squared up much more often, especially against lefties. Last season, lefties had an 84.1 mph average exit velocity of the pitch which led to a .318 wOBA, and this year the average exit velocity has risen to 90.7 mph for a .411 wOBA. I’m certainly interested in a Phillies stack on Monday, but the bat I’m most interested in is Michael Saunders, who has an absurd .544 wOBA and .468 ISO on two-seam fastballs this year.
5. Mike Fiers is surrendering an insane 5.23 home runs per nine against right-handed batters this year. Now, is he going to sustain a 35.3% HR/FB rate all year? Of course not. But when you allow 50.0% fly balls and 39.7% hard hits, as Fiers has this year, hitters are going to do some damage if they can elevate the ball. And they have – Fiers’s wOBA on fly balls this year is at .809. He’s facing the Royals on Monday, and while it’s always difficult to get too excited about Kansas City bats, Salvador Perez seems like a premier play at the catcher position.
6. George Springer has seven home runs since May 27th. That’s the same or better than one out of every five teams in Major League Baseball over that span (the Giants, Diamondbacks, Royals, White Sox, and Rockies have all hit seven or fewer homers since May 27th). He’s in a great matchup against Ian Kennedy on Monday, and while Kennedy gives up more fly balls and hard contact to lefties (putting Josh Reddick and Carlos Beltran in play), he’s still surrendered 1.72 HR/9 to righties since 2016, the 13th-most among qualified pitchers. Springer will cost an arm and a leg, but getting exposure to the Astros offense is a top priority on Monday.
7. Springer has been crushing lefties this year, but Jayson Werth was one of the original lefty mashers. Since entering the league in 2002, he’s one of just six players with 1,000 PA against lefties and a .399 wOBA and .245 ISO; the others are Paul Konerko, Nelson Cruz, Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez, and Ryan Braun. On Monday, Werth faces lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu.
8. The Braves exploded on Sunday, tagging the Reds for 13 runs, and Ender Inciarte led the charge, going 5-for-5 with a home run and five runs driven. The last Braves player to match that line was Andruw Jones in 2006. Atlanta should have no trouble putting runs on the board again on Monday against Phillies righty Nick Pivetta. Ownership will certainly be up, and the Braves have the highest implied run total of the slate (when was the last time that happened?), but it seems likely that the Braves put up runs in bunches once again on Monday.
9. One more Inciarte stat: his .309 average and 23 steals over the past calendar year is matched by only two players in Major League Baseball: Jose Altuve and Mookie Betts.
10. Justin Bour has already hit more home runs than he hit all of last year (15 in 2016, 16 in 2017), and his .401 wOBA and .295 ISO puts him in great company: Trout, Judge, Harper, Sano, Conforto, Zimmerman, and Thames are the only players to match those totals. Against Eddie Butler (career .431 wOBA to lefties, although admittedly most of that came at Coors Field), Bour is an elite play who should go under-owned at a loaded first base position.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to keep the discussion going!