10 Notes: Week 5 Sneak Peek
If you’re reading this, you most likely fall into one of two camps: 1.) You’re counting your money after another lucrative week of NFL DFS, or 2.) You’re already looking to Week 5 and strategizing about how to recoup the losses you suffered after rostering DeAndre Hopkins, Cam Newton, or Matthew Stafford. Either way, you’re here because, now that DraftKings and FanDuel have decided to leave the Monday games off their main slates, we’ve now got this weird, not-quite-next-week, in-between day where very little new DFS content is actually published.
So, welcome. And what is this column, again? Well, that’s sort of up to me, and sort of up to you. For the “sort of up to me” part, I’m breaking the column up into two sections: All this happened, more or less… (and if you get the reference, then you’re probably a pretty decent person, in my book), in which I recap the events of the past week’s games, and Looking Ahead, where I make some initial observations and gut calls about the following week’s NFL slate.
Bear in mind: I am not an expert. I rarely play more than a couple hundred bucks in a given week of NFL action, and I play mostly cash games. RotoGrinders has some of the best minds in DFS who are all much more qualified than I am to give advice. However, I will try to make the column as entertaining and informative as possible.
The “sort of up to you” part from above means, basically, I’m all ears. If you’ve got any ideas for things you’d like to read about on a Monday morning as you’re in the early stages of sussing out the following week’s DFS slate, leave me a comment, or send me a message on Twitter. This is a work in progress as far as I see it, so I’m open to suggestions.
Alright, onward to football.
All this happened, more or less…
1. So, this happened. One week after being held to one catch on seven targets for 16 yards, Julio brutalized the Panthers, hauling in 12 of 14 targets for 300 yards and one touchdown. Only four quarterbacks accrued 300 yards in Week 4. He joins Calvin Johnson (2013), Flipper Anderson (1989), and Stephone Paige (1985) as the only members of the 300-Receiving-Yards-In-A-Single-Game Club (they’re still workshopping the club name).
2. For a big chunk of Sunday’s game against the Titans, DeAndre Hopkins had just a single target with no catches to show for it. It was a Kelvin Benjamin-esque disappearing act, and it made me realize that JMToWin (among others who expressed similar sentiments) knew what he was talking about in saying on Experts Roundtable that Will Fuller had similar potential for a big game at a far lower cost. But wait! Hopkins turned it around and ended with one whole catch, for four whole yards. That’s 1.4 DK points and 0.9 FD points, if you’re counting. It was the lowest yardage total of Hopkins’s career (which surprises no one).
3. Antonio Brown scored more touchdowns. Antonio Brown got another penalty for dancing after scoring touchdowns.
4. I was right! I really liked Michael Crabtree this week (as I wrote in 10 Notes), mainly because of his matchup against Shareece Wright, who’d been super generous to opposing wideouts. (The author scrolls through lineups looking for all the Michael Crabtree lineups he built. Keeps scrolling. Still scrolling…).
5. With two touchdowns and five yards on three carries, John Kuhn was the fifth-highest scoring RB entering the Sunday night game. I’ll pause while you scramble to the waiver wire to add him in your season-long leagues…
6. Okay, welcome back. Todd Gurley got 19 more carries in Week 4, and he turned them into…33 yards. At this rate, it’ll only take him 381.4 carries to reach last year’s total of 1106 yards on the ground. His 2.9 yards per carry is worst in the NFL among backs with at least 50 carries, by a mile (Matt Forte is the next-lowest at 3.6 yards per carry). Theo Riddick, Justin Forsett, T.J. Yeldon, Rashad Jennings, Jeremy Langford these guys have higher yards per carry averages than Gurley’s. It’s probably not Gurley’s fault, but…yikes.
7. Quietly, John Brown had the same number of targets as Julio Jones (14), and he converted 10 of them into 144 yards. (Side note: by “quietly,” I just mean I haven’t seen his highlights replayed over and over on NFL Network. I was outside playing with Hot Wheels cars with my three-year-old during this game, so it might not have been “quiet” at all. But whatever.). Brown had a concussion earlier in the year, and it’s good to see him involved in the Cardinals offense, as he can be a fun player to own when the targets are there.
8. Drew Brees played a very “Brees on the road” game, putting up a pedestrian 207 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. I loved Brees as an underowned pivot off the expected higher ownership of Philip Rivers and had a few Brees/Fleener stacks. But as it turns out, sometimes years and years of data that says one thing is more accurate than my brain, which says another. Thanks to horribly timed fumbles by Melvin Gordon and Travis Benjamin and a horribly timed throw by Philip Rivers, the Saints still won the game. After the game, Rivers said, “You try to laugh to keep from crying,” so, all aboard the Rivers train in Week 5 DFS!
9. There was a Paxton Lynch sighting in Denver. After Trevor Siemian was carted off with a shoulder injury, Lynch came in and led three scoring drives, including this touchdown throw to Emmanuel Sanders. It’s unclear if Sieman will miss any time, but Lynch’s production at least means that Sanders and Demaryius Thomas aren’t complete dead zones when scrolling through the WRs for Week 4.
10. Blake Bortles rushed for a touchdown, then kicked the ball into the stands of Wembley Stadium. You know, because he’s in England, and they kick balls over there. And then he said this (per ESPN.com): “I was trying to give somebody from London an American football. They’ve probably never seen one or held one so I wanted to give somebody that opportunity.” They’ve never seen an American football?
Looking Ahead to Week 5…
1. Prediction: Antonio Brown will score another touchdown. Antonio Brown will get another penalty for dancing after scoring a touchdown.
2. It’s going to be fascinating to hear experts’ thoughts on Terrelle Pryor in Week 5. The Browns have a matchup against the Patriots, and the whole “Belichick can scheme to take out the opponent’s best player” gets mentioned often, but is it a real thing? This year, they’ve allowed Larry Fitzgerald (8-81-2) and Jarvis Landry (10-135-0) to put up solid lines. Both slot receivers, sure, but today, Robert Woods had a respectable (well…respectable for Robert Woods) seven catches for 89 yards, while catching passes from Tyrod Taylor. Pryor is a different kind of weapon, and while DK bumped his price up to $5,800, that’s still not prohibitive at all. One of the more interesting stories to follow this week, in my opinion.
3. It’s Tom Brady Week, as he returns from suspension, and DraftKings isn’t giving us a discount while Brady shakes off the rust; he’s priced as the second-highest QB at DK ($7,500). He faces a Browns defense that has made Carson Wentz, Joe Flacco, Ryan Tannehill, and Kirk Cousins look competent, if not good. Cousins struggled late, but his 116.5 passer rating was the highest mark of the year, and he still found the end zone three times. With the Patriots opening as a -10.5-point favorite, this could shape up as a classic “Blount game.”
4. Week 5 is going to be the week the wheels fall off the Marvin Jones bandwagon. His opponent, the Eagles, haven’t allowed a touchdown through the air this year, and in Week 4, Jones disappointed with a season-low seven targets and 74 yards.
5. With a 51.5-point total at time of writing, the Chargers at Raiders should fill this week’s Shootout of the Week role. Maybe I’m crazy (check that: I’m definitely crazy. I played Dwayne Washington in cash at Yahoo this week), but this will be a tricky game from which to pinpoint surefire production, with Jason Verrett, Casey Heyward, Sean Smith, and David Amerson manning the outside for both teams. Hunter Henry (still only $3300 at DK) seems like a lock, as long as Antonio Gates hamstrings don’t discover the Fountain of Youth before Week 5.
6. Recency bias, meet the Denver Broncos defense. Julio Jones will be the ultimate GPP play in Week 5 as he takes on a Broncos secondary that embarrassed Jameis Winston on Sunday (side note: Jameis Winston has put up his lowest two QB ratings of his career recently – 39.2 against the Cardinals in Week 2 and 40.1 against the Broncos on Sunday). This secondary also limited Mike Evans to five catches on 11 targets for just a 45 percent catch rate (not that hard to do) and just 59 receiving yards (very hard to do).
7. Melvin Gordon looks to be in another prime spot against the Raiders, who just allowed 113 yards to Terrance West. If the game goes to the air, Gordon has proven his worth there, too, catching all six of his passes in Week 4 for 43 yards. He’s no longer a bargain though – in fact, he’s the third-most-expensive RB at DraftKings ($7,000) in Week 5.
8. At just $5,600 at DraftKings (the 16th-most-expensive QB), Dak Prescott seems like an excellent value for Week 5 against a Bengals team that is mediocre at best against opposing QBs (ranked 19th in pass defense DVOA entering Week 4, recently allowed 312 yards and four TDs to Trevor Siemien). Prescott still hasn’t thrown an interception, and he’s the first player in NFL history (or at least back to 1970, when Pro Football Reference’s data cuts off) to attempt 24 passes in all four of his first four games and not throw an interception.
9. Jordan Reed finally had the breakout game DFS players had been clamoring for, catching two touchdown passes in Week 4. But he can’t be a strong consideration against a Ravens team that has held Clive Walford, Charles Clay, Gary Barnidge, Marcedes Lewis, and Julius Thomas to a combined 133 yards on the season, or 37 fewer yards than Julio Jones had in the first half of his Week 4 game against the Panthers.
10. My best early guess at a few names that will be chalky in Week 5: Tom Brady, LeGarrette Blount, Jordan Howard, Jeremy Hill, C.J. Anderson, Antonio Brown, Michael Crabtree, Amari Cooper, Hunter Henry. I’m fully aware that a few of these might look silly by, say, Tuesday, but they’re a few obvious names that stood out to me on Sunday night.
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Thanks for reading! All stats from this article were pulled from Pro Football Reference, StatMuse, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, NFL.com, and FootballGuys.com.
Be sure to check out “10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes” for NFL Week 5, which will be published on Thursday. Good luck this week!