Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Tuesday, June 30th
There was a bit of discussion in the comments yesterday concerning where my cut off was for writing up pitchers. The pitcher in question, Kendall Graveman, went on to have a solid outing, but my lack of analysis still stands as he struck out just three (as many as he walked) and stranded all eight of his baserunners. The point is that I could probably do a better job of presenting where my cut off line is. Surely I didn’t have Graveman or Dickey (the other pitcher right around my cut off line yesterday) rated as lowly as Allen Webster. I’m happy that readers have acknowledged that the line has to be drawn somewhere to stay under 5,000 words and get the article in on time, but from now on, I’m going to try to rank those who don’t get write-ups in order of least to most offensive in their particular list. Hopefully, that will help those of you still considering using those pitchers along with the stats presented for them in the charts.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 1.9 | 3.97 | 5.03 | 1.2 | 0.91 | 3.36 | 3.52 | NYY | 89 | 107 | 109 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 19.6% | 9.5% | 10.1% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 1.2 | 4.38 | 5.65 | 1.07 | 1.02 | 4.5 | 4.62 | MIN | 73 | 88 | 103 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 20.3% | 9.5% | 7.9% |
| Carlos Frias | LOS | 5.7 | 3.77 | 5.31 | 2.15 | 1.09 | 3.54 | 4.67 | ARI | 92 | 92 | 103 | 18.5% | 8.3% | 22.6% | 12.7% | 6.9% |
| Chris Sale | CHW | -12 | 2.59 | 6.88 | 1.16 | 0.98 | 2.93 | 1.03 | STL | 110 | 89 | 104 | 27.6% | 6.8% | 20.4% | 7.1% | 9.1% |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 3.7 | 4.18 | 6. | 0.76 | 1.04 | 4.49 | 4.05 | BAL | 114 | 105 | 123 | 20.3% | 6.4% | 22.5% | 10.8% | 12.4% |
| Cole Hamels | PHI | -2.4 | 3.26 | 6.85 | 1.42 | 1.01 | 3.11 | 4.72 | MIL | 78 | 72 | 107 | 19.5% | 7.2% | 19.8% | 9.1% | 6.7% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | -3.9 | 3.17 | 6.78 | 3.39 | 1.01 | 2.89 | 2.61 | KAN | 99 | 97 | 80 | 19.5% | 6.4% | 20.9% | 12.9% | 9.4% |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 12.4 | 4.4 | 5.34 | 0.82 | 1.01 | 4.21 | 3.47 | HOU | 107 | 100 | 108 | 21.5% | 7.2% | 24.8% | 9.5% | 19.8% |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | -5.1 | 2.99 | 5.56 | 0.96 | 0.94 | 3.15 | 3.31 | TAM | 107 | 95 | 84 | 25.3% | 7.3% | 21.2% | 12.6% | 9.0% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | -3.8 | 3.71 | 5.85 | 1.27 | 1.05 | 3.3 | 3.1 | TOR | 125 | 141 | 64 | 20.3% | 7.6% | 23.5% | 10.2% | 17.5% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 12.9 | 4.24 | 5.06 | 1.13 | 0.94 | 4.79 | 4.25 | CLE | 94 | 100 | 110 | 19.3% | 8.7% | 22.4% | 9.0% | 9.4% |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | -5.5 | 3.15 | 6.27 | 1.75 | 1.05 | 3.17 | 4.72 | DET | 111 | 105 | 125 | 21.7% | 7.9% | 19.9% | 10.8% | 7.3% |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | -13.3 | 3.7 | 5.81 | 1.1 | 0.84 | 3.55 | 4.23 | SEA | 83 | 85 | 88 | 21.1% | 8.3% | 20.9% | 12.7% | 10.0% |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | -5.2 | 3.92 | 6.56 | 1.8 | 0.91 | 5.73 | 6.91 | ANA | 102 | 94 | 81 | 15.5% | 8.3% | 17.3% | 14.0% | 10.3% |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 1.2 | 3.79 | 6.23 | 1.78 | 0.88 | 3.58 | 4.8 | CHC | 100 | 108 | 66 | 19.9% | 8.4% | 23.3% | 9.1% | 11.8% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | -3.4 | 3.51 | 6.19 | 1.2 | 0.98 | 3.11 | 3.29 | ATL | 93 | 93 | 67 | 19.1% | 5.3% | 20.1% | 7.9% | 8.4% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 0.7 | 4.15 | 5.55 | 1.74 | 0.93 | 4.05 | 4.89 | OAK | 110 | 96 | 111 | 16.7% | 9.3% | 19.0% | 11.7% | 6.9% |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 5.1 | 4.12 | 6.52 | 0.93 | 1.05 | 4.76 | 4.9 | PIT | 81 | 92 | 101 | 16.8% | 6.6% | 18.9% | 11.6% | 8.9% |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 5.4 | 3.8 | 5.89 | 1.51 | 0.88 | 4.14 | 4.76 | NYM | 102 | 85 | 62 | 16.8% | 6.6% | 20.8% | 9.3% | 11.4% |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 5.7 | 3.71 | 6.11 | 1.29 | 0.98 | 3.8 | 4.58 | CHW | 82 | 84 | 116 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 18.1% | 6.9% | 12.5% |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 2.9 | 3.74 | 6.16 | 0.71 | 1.05 | 3.99 | 3.06 | BOS | 87 | 101 | 79 | 21.3% | 7.2% | 15.8% | 8.0% | 12.1% |
| Mat Latos | FLA | 5.2 | 3.97 | 6.18 | 1.11 | 1.01 | 3.97 | 4.56 | SFO | 116 | 113 | 141 | 18.5% | 7.5% | 22.7% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Michael Montgomery | SEA | -4.8 | 4.24 | 7.02 | 1.23 | 0.84 | 4.42 | 3.71 | SDG | 93 | 96 | 96 | 19.9% | 6.4% | 21.5% | 5.2% | 4.0% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 5.1 | 4.36 | 5.97 | 0.94 | 1.04 | 4.37 | 4.07 | TEX | 89 | 99 | 111 | 19.6% | 5.9% | 21.3% | 12.4% | 11.5% |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 3 | 3.63 | 6.05 | 0.88 | 1.02 | 3.33 | 3.9 | CIN | 112 | 95 | 107 | 18.4% | 4.9% | 23.4% | 10.1% | 8.1% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 2.4 | 3.85 | 5.94 | 1.52 | 1.09 | 3.61 | 3.64 | LOS | 103 | 119 | 92 | 19.7% | 8.8% | 19.6% | 13.4% | 12.2% |
| Ryan Vogelsong | SFO | 0.5 | 4.32 | 5.75 | 1.12 | 1.01 | 4.55 | 3.97 | FLA | 81 | 79 | 46 | 20.9% | 7.0% | 19.8% | 8.9% | 6.7% |
| Shelby Miller | ATL | -2.1 | 4.42 | 5.81 | 1.12 | 0.98 | 4.29 | 3.06 | WAS | 104 | 101 | 99 | 18.4% | 7.7% | 19.9% | 8.5% | 8.8% |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | -8.1 | 3.39 | 6.55 | 1.99 | 0.93 | 3.5 | 4.02 | COL | 87 | 99 | 113 | 19.4% | 7.3% | 19.4% | 12.0% | 9.7% |
| Taylor Jungmann | MIL | -3.4 | 3.49 | 5.75 | 2.06 | 1.01 | 3.69 | 3.59 | PHI | 79 | 74 | 93 | 18.9% | 5.6% | 18.1% | 6.1% | 8.7% |
Andrew Heaney had a strong AL debut with six innings of one run ball and five strikeouts against the Astros. His major league numbers presented today are compiled from just 35.1 major league innings and need to be taken with a grain of salt, but he is a prospect of some note who’s had at least average K-BB rates at every level of the minors. He projects as a mid-rotation starter, who doesn’t really have the stuff to dominate, but has a few better than average pitches and the ability to generate a league average or better rate of ground balls and strikeouts. The Yankees are not a great road offense, but are one of the better offenses vs LHP with a strong walk rate (9.6%). The park makes this a slightly favorable matchup for Heaney.
Carlos Frias hasn’t been a quality pitcher for the Dodgers, but has only allowed more than three ERs in three of his 11 starts. He doesn’t generate a lot of strikeouts, but I’ll argue for upside later. He does have a top 10 groundball rate though, which should help him in this particular park. Arizona exploded last night and has a solid 14.0 Hard-Soft% vs RHP, but the same 92 wRC+ at home and against RHP.
Chris Sale strikes out everybody. There’s not much more to say. He’s been in double digits in seven straight starts and eight of nine. His SwStr% is reaching historic levels in the pitchf/x era, which I’ve expounded on already and would be glad to delve into again were today not a full slate. Look it up if you haven’t though because it’s pretty amazing. Only Randy Johnson in 2002 was better. St Louis is a tough home offense, but with little power (7.8 HR/FB) in a big park. They struggle vs LHP with just a 0.7 Hard-Soft% and 24.0 K%. Sale has the top projected K% and K-BB% tonight.
Cole Hamels is a little difficult today. I wish he were pitching yesterday where he would have been the easy top choice, but despite a great matchup against the 4th worst road offense and 3rd worst vs LHP, he only rates as an moderately attractive option tonight. Part of that is a 16.0 HR/FB at home, though his seven HRs at home this season have come in just three of his seven starts. Additionally, he has occasional issues finding the strike zone that most elite pitchers don’t have. While the Brewers have just a 72 wRC+ vs LHP, none of their underlying stats are really that bad including their Hard-Soft rate, HR/FB, walk, or strikeout rates.
Dallas Keuchel has gone at least seven innings in 10 of 16 starts with six starts of eight innings or more. After striking out 12 Yankees, he now has a 21.1 K% to go with a league leading 64.5 GB%. Sure, the Royals will probably pull his strikeouts below average tonight, but it’s probably still going to be a reasonable rate and they’ll absolutely accentuate his ability to induce weak ground balls. Keuchel also has a league leading -4.3 Hard-Soft% and 7.5 HR/FB at home since last season. The Royals have a 7.0 HR/FB and 6.5 Hard-Soft% vs LHP and a -0.6 Hard-Soft% over the last week.
Danny Duffy should see his strikeout rate increase tonight to an above average rate, but don’t mistake this for an otherwise good matchup. Houston has an 18.4 HR/FB at home and 14.2 HR/FB vs LHP, which doesn’t mesh well with Duffy’s 18.0 Hard-Soft%. He’s only completed six innings twice this season and hasn’t even completed five in three of his last four.
Danny Salazar is coming off of a somewhat rough outing and has only lasted a total of nine innings over his last two, but has struck out 12 of 44 batters faced and has a -7.1 Hard-Soft% in those starts. He has allowed a HR in 11 of 13 starts, but only more than one once. We know his strikeout rate is exceptional and hard contact can occasionally be a problem (30.3 Hard% this season), but he has countered that with a 21.3 Soft% this season. Tampa Bay isn’t a bad home offense, but they aren’t great vs RHP and the park pulls the overall product down. The big park should help Salazar as the overall run factor is similar to Cleveland, but the LH HR factor drops from 1.07 to 0.86.
Eduardo Rodriguez has gotten hammered in two of his last three outings and there is some talk about him tipping pitches out of the stretch (fangraphs rotowire blurb on his player page). The good (or great) news is that he’s gone at least six innings with at least five strikeouts and a total of two ERs over his other four starts. Toronto absolutely destroys LHP at home and are the worst matchup of the night even though they have just a 64 wRC+ over the last week.
Erasmo Ramirez should generate more strikeouts, which we’ll talk about later, but Cleveland will likely exploit his control issues. He has allowed just four HRs this season, but has a worrisome 17.5 Hard-Soft%. The park turns an otherwise overall neutral matchup slightly in his favor.
Gerrit Cole is someone I’ve leaned heavily on nearly every time I’ve had a chance, but today I’m not. He’s coming off his worst start of the season and has walked a season high three in three of his last four starts with just a total of nine strikeouts over his last two starts which are two of his three lowest strikeout totals for the season. I’d still consider going with him, but he has one of the worst five matchups tonight in a park that plays more towards offense than many people realize.
Ian Kennedy has a 15.6 Hard-Soft% that nearly matches Seattle’s 15.2 Hard-Soft% vs RHP and San Diego has a pretty terrible defense that hurts him even more. He’s allowed 15 HRs this year, including two in Safeco and 10 in Petco, while he hasn’t pitched in a hitter friendly park this year. The good news is that he has maintained a solid K rate and faces a team with a 22.5 K% vs RHP. The Mariners have a lot of nice names, but the overall offense has not been good. In fact, the park adjustment makes this one of the top two pitcher friendly matchups of the night.
Jon Niese has had a decent June, but more importantly faces a cold Cubs team (66 wRC+, -1.9 Hard-Soft%, 0.0 HR/FB over the last week). They hit LHP well, but with a 22.4 K% and just a 7.8 HR/FB. Niese has a below average strikeout rate that may even be too high for his SwStr%, but the Cubs whiff often enough to bring his K% up to a potentially average rate tonight.
Jordan Zimmermann faces Atlanta for the 2nd consecutive start and is hoping this one goes as well as the eight shutout innings last week. Atlanta and their 16.8 K% vs RHP will likely pull down an already diminished 16.4 K% this season, but they don’t hit the ball hard (6.3 Hard-Soft% for the season) and the lineup looks even more pathetic without Freeman (-2.9 Hard-Soft% over the last week). A slight park adjustment towards the pitcher makes a good situation even better. The Braves have just a 7.2 HR/FB at home and vs RHP, which nearly matches Zimmermann’s 7.1 HR/FB over the last two calendar years.
Kyle Hendricks has been roughed up in his last two starts and struck out just four of 45 batters. The Mets have been decent at home, but are one of the coldest offenses in the majors and struggle against RHP despite a 14.4 Hard-Soft% against them. The park adjustment gives Hendricks one of the top three matchups this evening, though you might want to note the Mets get Daniel Murphy back tonight.
Lance Lynn facing the White Sox at home looks like it should be a great matchup, but maybe not as great as it would have looked a few weeks ago. While he’s allowed a total of four ERs over his last four starts, he’s walked four in two of those and has only topped five strikeouts once in his last five starts and that was with just six his last time out against Miami. He does have an exceptional 3.6 HR/FB at home since last season to go along with average K and BB rates and faces a weak offense with just a 4.9 Hard-Soft% on the season. The White Sox have been hitting the ball better over the last week though and have a 13.3 HR/FB. It’s still a positive matchup for Lynn, who has a 5.8 Hard-Soft% this season.
Marco Estrada struck out 10 of 28 Rays in his last start and came within a single out of a shutout. He’s been good for the Blue Jays and even has a below average HR rate somehow (8.5 HR/FB). Only his 2011 season with an equal 24.4% Hard and Soft rate comes close to matching the 3.3 Hard-Soft% and 23.3 Hard% in particular that he has this year, while continuing to miss bats as an above average rate. The Red Sox are league average vs LHP with just a 16.6 K%, but not very good in any other aspect and represent a merely neutral matchup tonight, even with the park adjustment.
Phil Hughes has shown his first signs of life this season with back to back eight inning, one run performances. Still, he struck out just nine of 56 batters and both runs came on solo HRs with a 27.7 Hard-Soft% over that span. The Reds have just a 6.6 Hard-Soft% vs RHP, but a 14.8 HR/FB at home and while the park plays more neutral for overall run factor, do you really want Phil Hughes in a park with a HR factor over 1.3?
Rubby de la Rosa has allowed a total of two ERs over his last three starts with only one HR and that came in Colorado. I’m usually a fan of his upside, but worry about his 18.1 HR/FB, so generally look for good road spots for him. Tonight, he faces the top offense vs RHP at home. The Dodgers have already accounted for four of his 15 HRs and 14 total runs in two starts in LA. The upside may not be enough for the risk.
Ryan Vogelsong is generally a pitcher to avoid on the road, but there are some extenuating circumstances here. He’s pitched well without allowing a run in each of his last two starts, but the real prize here is that he faces an offense that wasn’t good before Stanton went down and has smashed into a wall since. They’ve been terrible at home and vs RHP all season, but have the coldest offense over the last week with a -4.5 Hard-Soft% and 29.4 K%. They represent potentially the top matchup tonight even with very little adjustment for a big, but overall run neutral park.
Editor’s Note: Sonny Gray has been scratched from his start tonight. Right-hander Chris Bassitt will start in his place.
Sonny Gray has a very solid 16.8 K-BB% and excels in contact management with a 1.7 Hard-Soft% in a very good park. The problem is, he’s a very good pitcher that’s looked upon as a Cy Young contender with a price tag that generally doesn’t leave much room for the squeezing of additional value. The Rockies are a positive matchup away from home and in a pitcher’s environment, but have the same hard hit rates away from home along with a 13.4 HR/FB on the road. They do also have an 18.2 K-BB% away from Colorado.
Taylor Jungmann has been very good in three of his four starts with a perfectly league average 13.7 K-BB% and has managed contact well (6.0 Hard-Soft%). League average facing the Phillies with their 4.3 Hard-Soft% and 6.8 HR/FB vs RHP turns into really good. The Phillies are the 2nd worst home offense and worst vs RHP.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
Michael Montgomery (.243 BABIP – 80.9 LOB% – 2.6 HR/FB) – He does have a great park adjusted matchup tonight though, so I actually have him rated value wise (taking price into account) in the same general tier as Cole.
Anthony DeSclafani (.277 BABIP – 70.3 LOB% – 5.5 HR/FB) – He has just a 6.9 K-BB%.
Shelby Miller (.236 BABIP – 79.9 LOB% – 4.6 HR/FB)
NO THANK YOU
NOTE – There isn’t really an absolutely terrible, must stay away and stack against, among this group (or the one just above) tonight, but the line must be drawn somewhere.
Jorge de la Rosa
Ivan Nova – Allowed just three hits and shut out the Phillies for 6.2 innings in his 2015 debut, but struck out just one of 26 batters.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 16.8% | 5.4% | Home | 18.0% | 2.6% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 4.4% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 16.6% | 7.7% | Home | 15.4% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 10.2% |
| Carlos Frias | Dodgers | 16.2% | 6.7% | Road | 19.2% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 15.9% | 10.1% |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | 29.8% | 5.4% | Road | 30.3% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 1.8% |
| Colby Lewis | Rangers | 17.7% | 5.9% | Road | 17.3% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 5.2% |
| Cole Hamels | Phillies | 24.0% | 6.5% | Home | 24.3% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 10.7% | 10.7% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 19.0% | 6.8% | Home | 20.6% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 8.1% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 18.6% | 9.5% | Road | 18.3% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 0.0% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | 28.1% | 7.1% | Road | 27.9% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 9.1% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 22.1% | 7.6% | Road | 24.4% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 2.3% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Rays | 18.3% | 8.8% | Home | 18.5% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 8.1% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | 24.5% | 6.8% | Road | 25.3% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 11.8% |
| Ian Kennedy | Padres | 23.1% | 8.7% | Home | 24.3% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 10.2% |
| Ivan Nova | Yankees | 16.8% | 6.8% | Road | 10.6% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 3.9% | 7.7% |
| Jon Niese | Mets | 17.6% | 6.1% | Home | 17.5% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 12.3% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Nationals | 20.3% | 4.4% | Road | 23.1% | 3.7% | L14 Days | 19.0% | 1.7% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | 18.1% | 9.4% | Road | 18.8% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 12.2% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | 18.6% | 7.5% | Home | 14.6% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 6.7% | 3.3% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 17.0% | 4.6% | Road | 15.1% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 8.9% | 4.4% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | 22.2% | 8.3% | Home | 20.3% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 16.7% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 21.7% | 6.9% | Home | 21.1% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 7.4% |
| Mat Latos | Marlins | 18.9% | 6.8% | Home | 18.4% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 7.4% |
| Michael Montgomery | Mariners | 15.8% | 5.8% | Road | 15.4% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 3.2% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | Orioles | 16.8% | 7.5% | Home | 17.6% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | 19.0% | 2.8% | Road | 20.5% | 2.0% | L14 Days | 16.1% | 0.0% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | Diamondbacks | 18.7% | 6.9% | Home | 20.1% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 7.0% |
| Ryan Vogelsong | Giants | 17.2% | 8.1% | Road | 17.4% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 8.0% |
| Shelby Miller | Braves | 17.6% | 9.2% | Home | 16.1% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 4.2% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | 21.9% | 7.6% | Home | 20.5% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 16.4% | 7.3% |
| Taylor Jungmann | Brewers | 20.0% | 6.3% | Road | 17.3% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 6.7% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | Road | 18.9% | 8.2% | LH | 18.7% | 9.6% | L7Days | 17.5% | 9.1% |
| Twins | Road | 21.4% | 7.2% | RH | 20.0% | 6.4% | L7Days | 19.5% | 7.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 20.9% | 8.2% | RH | 19.9% | 7.6% | L7Days | 18.9% | 8.7% |
| Cardinals | Home | 18.5% | 9.1% | LH | 24.0% | 9.8% | L7Days | 20.0% | 8.4% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.1% | 6.9% | RH | 22.9% | 7.4% | L7Days | 25.8% | 6.6% |
| Brewers | Road | 20.5% | 5.3% | LH | 21.4% | 7.0% | L7Days | 16.0% | 6.6% |
| Royals | Road | 16.9% | 5.3% | LH | 15.1% | 5.7% | L7Days | 18.4% | 5.8% |
| Astros | Home | 25.6% | 9.5% | LH | 23.2% | 8.7% | L7Days | 24.1% | 8.9% |
| Rays | Home | 22.7% | 7.4% | RH | 21.3% | 7.0% | L7Days | 24.4% | 5.9% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 16.6% | 9.8% | LH | 17.5% | 9.8% | L7Days | 18.6% | 8.1% |
| Indians | Road | 17.5% | 8.5% | RH | 18.9% | 9.1% | L7Days | 23.9% | 7.4% |
| Tigers | Home | 19.0% | 7.6% | RH | 19.3% | 7.3% | L7Days | 24.2% | 6.3% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.5% | 7.5% | RH | 22.5% | 8.2% | L7Days | 15.8% | 6.6% |
| Angels | Home | 20.1% | 7.6% | RH | 19.7% | 7.2% | L7Days | 21.6% | 7.8% |
| Cubs | Road | 24.1% | 8.1% | LH | 22.4% | 9.2% | L7Days | 21.8% | 8.9% |
| Braves | Home | 17.7% | 8.8% | RH | 16.8% | 7.6% | L7Days | 17.5% | 5.3% |
| Athletics | Home | 15.4% | 7.7% | LH | 17.6% | 9.8% | L7Days | 16.0% | 7.1% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.7% | 6.0% | RH | 19.9% | 6.8% | L7Days | 18.1% | 8.6% |
| Mets | Home | 18.8% | 8.8% | RH | 20.4% | 7.3% | L7Days | 20.7% | 9.3% |
| White Sox | Road | 18.9% | 5.6% | RH | 19.2% | 6.4% | L7Days | 18.4% | 5.1% |
| Red Sox | Road | 16.8% | 8.4% | RH | 16.6% | 7.8% | L7Days | 22.0% | 6.3% |
| Giants | Road | 18.1% | 7.5% | RH | 17.5% | 7.7% | L7Days | 21.5% | 8.6% |
| Padres | Home | 23.2% | 5.8% | LH | 24.3% | 8.0% | L7Days | 23.2% | 4.1% |
| Rangers | Road | 23.4% | 7.2% | RH | 20.2% | 7.8% | L7Days | 22.8% | 5.5% |
| Reds | Home | 18.6% | 9.0% | RH | 18.6% | 7.9% | L7Days | 17.6% | 7.5% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.0% | 10.5% | RH | 19.5% | 9.7% | L7Days | 22.1% | 10.9% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.6% | 6.4% | RH | 21.0% | 6.0% | L7Days | 29.4% | 4.0% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.2% | 8.5% | RH | 20.3% | 7.8% | L7Days | 17.3% | 8.0% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.9% | 5.7% | RH | 19.2% | 6.1% | L7Days | 14.3% | 10.2% |
| Phillies | Home | 18.8% | 6.2% | RH | 18.9% | 5.7% | L7Days | 18.1% | 4.9% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 20.0% | 15.0% | 10.0% | Home | 16.4% | 9.5% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 22.1% | 6.4% | 6.4% | Home | 22.5% | 9.2% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 17.6% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| Carlos Frias | Dodgers | 20.7% | 11.4% | 5.1% | Road | 23.2% | 13.3% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 15.4% | 0.0% |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | 19.9% | 9.5% | 9.8% | Road | 16.9% | 7.1% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colby Lewis | Rangers | 20.9% | 8.6% | 9.9% | Road | 21.8% | 8.2% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 5.9% | 17.6% |
| Cole Hamels | Phillies | 21.4% | 8.9% | 9.8% | Home | 24.9% | 16.0% | 16.0% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 19.4% | 12.1% | 10.3% | Home | 17.9% | 7.5% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 33.3% | 11.1% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 21.7% | 5.8% | 13.5% | Road | 19.6% | 7.7% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 47.1% | 0.0% | 60.0% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | 22.6% | 12.7% | 12.0% | Road | 22.7% | 13.5% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 24.2% | 9.1% | 12.1% | Road | 22.0% | 0.0% | 15.4% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 11.1% | 33.3% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Rays | 20.7% | 12.1% | 7.1% | Home | 21.8% | 10.3% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 0.0% | 10.0% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | 21.6% | 9.1% | 7.9% | Road | 19.9% | 6.4% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Ian Kennedy | Padres | 22.9% | 11.7% | 8.5% | Home | 22.9% | 14.5% | 3.6% | L14 Days | 21.9% | 18.2% | 18.2% |
| Ivan Nova | Yankees | 19.3% | 11.5% | 6.6% | Road | 17.6% | 44.4% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 4.3% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Jon Niese | Mets | 22.8% | 11.0% | 6.6% | Home | 24.1% | 11.4% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 12.5% | 25.0% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Nationals | 22.9% | 7.1% | 11.5% | Road | 24.4% | 7.8% | 16.4% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | 19.8% | 12.0% | 7.3% | Road | 18.0% | 11.9% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 22.2% | 0.0% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | 20.7% | 7.9% | 12.1% | Home | 15.7% | 6.8% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 11.5% | 33.3% | 11.1% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 18.7% | 8.2% | 11.4% | Road | 18.9% | 5.2% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | 20.9% | 7.1% | 10.8% | Home | 18.3% | 3.6% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 8.3% | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 17.6% | 10.9% | 13.3% | Home | 19.1% | 10.1% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 2.9% | 0.0% | 10.0% |
| Mat Latos | Marlins | 23.3% | 7.1% | 13.8% | Home | 27.5% | 10.3% | 13.1% | L14 Days | 19.5% | 15.8% | 15.8% |
| Michael Montgomery | Mariners | 19.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% | Road | 21.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 22.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | Orioles | 22.6% | 12.2% | 12.4% | Home | 20.4% | 11.3% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 11.1% | 22.2% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | 24.2% | 9.0% | 10.7% | Road | 25.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 10.0% | 5.0% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | Diamondbacks | 20.9% | 14.3% | 8.9% | Home | 18.7% | 12.3% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 11.1% | 33.3% |
| Ryan Vogelsong | Giants | 24.1% | 9.0% | 7.9% | Road | 23.8% | 14.7% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shelby Miller | Braves | 18.9% | 9.3% | 11.1% | Home | 20.2% | 5.8% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | 17.4% | 7.9% | 8.6% | Home | 18.6% | 9.0% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Taylor Jungmann | Brewers | 16.7% | 5.6% | 16.7% | Road | 10.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 0.0% | 11.1% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | Road | 20.4% | 9.9% | 8.4% | LH | 17.4% | 11.6% | 10.2% | L7Days | 19.9% | 11.1% | 8.3% |
| Twins | Road | 19.1% | 7.8% | 12.5% | RH | 20.6% | 9.0% | 12.6% | L7Days | 20.1% | 15.7% | 11.8% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.7% | 11.1% | 7.8% | RH | 20.9% | 10.8% | 9.3% | L7Days | 19.8% | 14.3% | 12.7% |
| Cardinals | Home | 22.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | LH | 19.2% | 10.1% | 13.4% | L7Days | 20.9% | 8.2% | 12.2% |
| Orioles | Home | 22.4% | 15.6% | 8.2% | RH | 21.6% | 14.1% | 8.4% | L7Days | 30.2% | 12.5% | 17.2% |
| Brewers | Road | 19.1% | 9.2% | 8.2% | LH | 15.7% | 11.6% | 4.8% | L7Days | 22.8% | 8.8% | 1.5% |
| Royals | Road | 23.8% | 9.2% | 9.7% | LH | 23.5% | 7.0% | 9.2% | L7Days | 22.8% | 8.5% | 8.5% |
| Astros | Home | 18.1% | 18.4% | 10.9% | LH | 20.4% | 14.2% | 10.4% | L7Days | 21.7% | 11.0% | 11.0% |
| Rays | Home | 21.9% | 10.1% | 10.1% | RH | 21.9% | 9.4% | 10.0% | L7Days | 20.3% | 9.6% | 9.6% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 19.2% | 14.8% | 14.6% | LH | 22.1% | 12.5% | 17.4% | L7Days | 15.9% | 13.6% | 11.9% |
| Indians | Road | 20.2% | 10.0% | 8.9% | RH | 21.0% | 10.2% | 11.4% | L7Days | 24.0% | 11.1% | 8.9% |
| Tigers | Home | 22.2% | 8.7% | 10.2% | RH | 21.8% | 9.1% | 8.0% | L7Days | 16.9% | 14.6% | 12.5% |
| Mariners | Road | 17.2% | 11.5% | 7.5% | RH | 19.5% | 10.2% | 6.5% | L7Days | 20.7% | 9.8% | 15.7% |
| Angels | Home | 21.6% | 11.1% | 10.1% | RH | 20.3% | 10.8% | 8.6% | L7Days | 20.5% | 6.3% | 10.9% |
| Cubs | Road | 20.0% | 11.7% | 8.7% | LH | 23.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | L7Days | 20.3% | 0.0% | 15.8% |
| Braves | Home | 21.4% | 7.2% | 9.9% | RH | 22.1% | 7.2% | 9.0% | L7Days | 18.7% | 5.8% | 3.8% |
| Athletics | Home | 19.9% | 6.5% | 10.3% | LH | 18.9% | 6.7% | 8.8% | L7Days | 20.3% | 10.6% | 9.1% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.0% | 8.9% | 8.6% | RH | 21.5% | 8.9% | 7.1% | L7Days | 22.2% | 3.8% | 5.7% |
| Mets | Home | 21.5% | 9.7% | 12.5% | RH | 22.9% | 8.2% | 12.3% | L7Days | 22.2% | 7.7% | 13.5% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.2% | 8.0% | 11.5% | RH | 21.4% | 9.5% | 11.0% | L7Days | 18.5% | 13.3% | 6.7% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.0% | 8.9% | 13.4% | RH | 20.3% | 10.1% | 11.8% | L7Days | 15.6% | 7.9% | 11.8% |
| Giants | Road | 24.0% | 12.0% | 6.5% | RH | 21.5% | 10.5% | 8.2% | L7Days | 20.6% | 10.7% | 8.9% |
| Padres | Home | 19.9% | 11.3% | 6.6% | LH | 21.5% | 7.7% | 5.6% | L7Days | 24.5% | 9.4% | 9.4% |
| Rangers | Road | 18.9% | 11.8% | 8.0% | RH | 17.9% | 11.4% | 7.6% | L7Days | 21.8% | 16.4% | 6.6% |
| Reds | Home | 23.2% | 14.8% | 8.4% | RH | 21.2% | 11.5% | 9.2% | L7Days | 22.9% | 8.1% | 6.8% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.0% | 15.2% | 7.6% | RH | 21.3% | 15.8% | 8.0% | L7Days | 15.0% | 11.7% | 6.7% |
| Marlins | Home | 18.9% | 9.4% | 9.1% | RH | 20.7% | 9.8% | 9.3% | L7Days | 14.6% | 10.7% | 7.1% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.3% | 13.3% | 8.7% | RH | 21.2% | 13.0% | 8.9% | L7Days | 24.4% | 9.3% | 11.6% |
| Rockies | Road | 20.8% | 13.4% | 8.8% | RH | 21.0% | 14.8% | 8.9% | L7Days | 21.7% | 18.3% | 15.5% |
| Phillies | Home | 22.1% | 9.1% | 8.0% | RH | 22.6% | 6.8% | 9.3% | L7Days | 18.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.6 SwStr% – 2.10 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 21.7% | 16.9% | 1.28 | 21.7% | 16.9% | 1.28 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 16.2% | 8.7% | 1.86 | 15.3% | 8.4% | 1.82 |
| Carlos Frias | LOS | 13.8% | 9.8% | 1.41 | 13.1% | 10.1% | 1.30 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 34.2% | 15.9% | 2.15 | 45.3% | 19.0% | 2.38 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 18.2% | 7.4% | 2.46 | 17.5% | 7.4% | 2.36 |
| Cole Hamels | PHI | 25.5% | 13.4% | 1.90 | 26.3% | 15.6% | 1.69 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 21.1% | 9.7% | 2.18 | 27.1% | 10.8% | 2.51 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 17.1% | 6.1% | 2.80 | 19.1% | 5.7% | 3.35 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 30.4% | 13.0% | 2.34 | 27.3% | 11.3% | 2.42 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 22.1% | 7.7% | 2.87 | 21.4% | 7.5% | 2.85 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 19.8% | 13.2% | 1.50 | 21.2% | 16.0% | 1.33 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 26.4% | 10.1% | 2.61 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 2.52 |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.10 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 2.42 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 3.9% | 7.6% | 0.51 | 3.9% | 7.6% | 0.51 |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 15.5% | 5.7% | 2.72 | 18.6% | 6.1% | 3.05 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 16.4% | 7.4% | 2.22 | 16.5% | 7.6% | 2.17 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 21.8% | 13.0% | 1.68 | 19.5% | 13.7% | 1.42 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 8.0% | 7.4% | 1.08 | 8.0% | 7.4% | 1.08 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 19.4% | 7.0% | 2.77 | 19.6% | 8.6% | 2.28 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 24.9% | 9.7% | 2.57 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.57 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 21.1% | 10.9% | 1.94 | 22.7% | 9.9% | 2.29 |
| Mat Latos | FLA | 20.5% | 10.0% | 2.05 | 24.7% | 13.2% | 1.87 |
| Michael Montgomery | SEA | 15.8% | 8.1% | 1.95 | 15.8% | 8.1% | 1.95 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 19.6% | 9.7% | 2.02 | 19.7% | 10.9% | 1.81 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 14.7% | 5.5% | 2.67 | 13.9% | 4.6% | 3.02 |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.79 | 20.1% | 11.0% | 1.83 |
| Ryan Vogelsong | SFO | 17.0% | 5.4% | 3.15 | 16.7% | 4.7% | 3.55 |
| Shelby Miller | ATL | 18.1% | 8.2% | 2.21 | 16.3% | 6.8% | 2.40 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 22.9% | 10.1% | 2.27 | 22.6% | 10.0% | 2.26 |
| Taylor Jungmann | MIL | 20.0% | 6.4% | 3.13 | 20.0% | 6.4% | 3.13 |
Carlos Frias has had a double digit SwStr% in seven of 11 starts and has been below 8% only once. He also has an excellent pitch framer in Grandal. His five strikeouts of 22 batters last time out was only his second start with an above average K rate. His SwStr rate is simply too high for a K% this low. I absolutely expect a sizeable increase, provided he remains in the rotation. One thing I’ve noticed after writing up his BABIP below is that he has a high SwStr%, but a low Z-Contact%. This must mean he gets a lot of swings and misses out of the strike zone. That is absolutely true as both his O-Swing% and O-Contact% basically match those of Matt Harvey.
Cole Hamels has his highest K% since his rookie season and his highest SwStr% since his second season, with an enormous SwStr% over the last month. Ruiz is a pretty terrible framer (-7.1 RAA) with Rupp slightly better (-1.7 RAA). Hamels also has a career 1.9 K/SwStr which matches this season, but perhaps would improve with a better partner behind the plate should he get traded.
Danny Duffy has the lowest SwStr% of his career and has maxed out at 5.7% over his last four starts. This is not good and masked in his current K rate, which is in line for a big drop should his SwStr not improve significantly.
Eduardo Rodriguez had his highest SwStr rate at 9.0% in his last start. The good news is it’s been below 7.7% only once so I think there’s a decent chance that he brings that up a bit rather than his K% dropping much as we’re still dealing with a small sample size.
Erasmo Ramirez has generated a SwStr rate below 9.9% just once in 10 starts and has been above 15% in four of his last five, yet continues to put up a pedestrian K% despite some solid catcher framing (+7.9 RAA). Something has to give here. His SwStr% would be top 10 if he qualified.
Jon Niese hasn’t broken 7% with his SwStr in four June starts, but has consistently been above 6% in three of four starts. That doesn’t bode well for his K%, but the Mets are one of the better framing organizations, sitting at +7.1 RAA combined from their four catchers, with Plawecki (+6.0 RAA) being the best of them with just half the work so far. His season K rate is right on the border of being acceptable, but the catcher assistance really helps and it’s a good thing too as he can’t afford to see it drop any lower.
Kyle Hendricks has seen his SwStr% grow over the last month, but maintained the same K%. That kind of makes the point for us even though the Cubs have an excellent framing duo. Consider that Ross is +7.7 RAA in just 1467 pitches, while Montero (+6.4 RAA) isn’t bad either.
Phil Hughes had an 8.4 SwStr% in his last start that represents his 3rd highest mark of the season and only the 4th time he’s been above 5.7% in 14 starts since his initial one this year. Unfortunately, the Minnesota catching corps are merely scratch framers and even a bit below average (Suzuki -0.4 RAA with 80% of innings caught), so he’s not getting any help there. His K rate may be headed for further disaster.
Ryan Vogelsong has a K% right in line with his career rate, despite a SwStr% that’s 1.7 points below his career mark and, in fact, ties a career low from two seasons ago. The good news is that not only is Buster Posey a great hitter, but a great framer as well (+9.1 RAA). That might help ease the pain a little, but it’s not enough. Vogelsong hasn’t even hit 6% once in five June starts and has just one start above 7.1% for the season.
Taylor Jungmann had an 8.8 SwStr% in his last start, which was his first time above 6.7%. There’s some reason for concern as he’s only been above league average once in the minors (last year’s 23.9 K% at AAA in 101.2 IP), but the sample size is still too small to make judgements. The Brewers do have a great reputation for framing pitchers as a team, but Lucroy (+1.9) has been merely average so far.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.88 ERA – 3.80 SIERA – 3.88 xFIP – 3.88 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 1.5 | 3.52 | 2.02 | 3.56 | 2.06 | 1.93 | 0.43 | 1.5 | 3.52 | 2.02 | 3.56 | 2.06 | 1.93 | 0.43 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 3.35 | 4.66 | 1.31 | 4.51 | 1.16 | 3.7 | 0.35 | 3.23 | 4.51 | 1.28 | 4.37 | 1.14 | 3.29 | 0.06 |
| Carlos Frias | LOS | 4.31 | 4.14 | -0.17 | 3.99 | -0.32 | 4.01 | -0.3 | 3.5 | 4.41 | 0.91 | 4.09 | 0.59 | 3.96 | 0.46 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 3.02 | 2.25 | -0.77 | 2.36 | -0.66 | 2.1 | -0.92 | 1.98 | 1.28 | -0.7 | 1.21 | -0.77 | 0.65 | -1.33 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 4.1 | 4.09 | -0.01 | 4.36 | 0.26 | 3.46 | -0.64 | 3.09 | 3.97 | 0.88 | 4.3 | 1.21 | 3.01 | -0.08 |
| Cole Hamels | PHI | 3.26 | 3.32 | 0.06 | 3.28 | 0.02 | 3.58 | 0.32 | 4.32 | 2.96 | -1.36 | 2.68 | -1.64 | 2.54 | -1.78 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 2.17 | 2.9 | 0.73 | 2.86 | 0.69 | 3.04 | 0.87 | 2.47 | 2.19 | -0.28 | 2.19 | -0.28 | 2.87 | 0.4 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 5.44 | 4.62 | -0.82 | 4.57 | -0.87 | 4.19 | -1.25 | 1.93 | 3.47 | 1.54 | 2.87 | 0.94 | 1.38 | -0.55 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 4.06 | 2.72 | -1.34 | 2.81 | -1.25 | 3.56 | -0.5 | 4.76 | 3.23 | -1.53 | 3.2 | -1.56 | 3.66 | -1.1 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 4.33 | 3.71 | -0.62 | 3.69 | -0.64 | 3.49 | -0.84 | 5.53 | 3.84 | -1.69 | 3.89 | -1.64 | 3.89 | -1.64 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 4.23 | 3.87 | -0.36 | 4.05 | -0.18 | 3.7 | -0.53 | 1.03 | 3.42 | 2.39 | 3.45 | 2.42 | 2.34 | 1.31 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 2.16 | 2.94 | 0.78 | 2.89 | 0.73 | 2.72 | 0.56 | 2.27 | 3.5 | 1.23 | 3.54 | 1.27 | 3.13 | 0.86 |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | 5.09 | 3.72 | -1.37 | 3.74 | -1.35 | 5.17 | 0.08 | 2.4 | 3.47 | 1.07 | 3.34 | 0.94 | 3.43 | 1.03 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 0 | 6.88 | 6.88 | 6.62 | 6.62 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 0 | 6.91 | 6.91 | 6.62 | 6.62 | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 4.12 | 4 | -0.12 | 3.84 | -0.28 | 4.38 | 0.26 | 4.2 | 3.59 | -0.61 | 3.34 | -0.86 | 4.33 | 0.13 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 3.42 | 4.12 | 0.7 | 4 | 0.58 | 3.12 | -0.3 | 3.73 | 3.96 | 0.23 | 3.77 | 0.04 | 3 | -0.73 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 5.15 | 4.17 | -0.98 | 3.95 | -1.2 | 4.17 | -0.98 | 3.9 | 4.55 | 0.65 | 4.38 | 0.48 | 4.86 | 0.96 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 6.17 | 5.45 | -0.72 | 5.21 | -0.96 | 7.64 | 1.47 | 6.17 | 5.46 | -0.71 | 5.21 | -0.96 | 7.64 | 1.47 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 4.46 | 3.54 | -0.92 | 3.58 | -0.88 | 3.71 | -0.75 | 5.88 | 3.4 | -2.48 | 3.26 | -2.62 | 3.86 | -2.02 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 2.84 | 3.49 | 0.65 | 3.43 | 0.59 | 2.88 | 0.04 | 0.96 | 3.83 | 2.87 | 3.69 | 2.73 | 2.35 | 1.39 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 3.45 | 3.9 | 0.45 | 4.19 | 0.74 | 3.82 | 0.37 | 2.94 | 3.69 | 0.75 | 3.94 | 1 | 2.89 | -0.05 |
| Mat Latos | FLA | 5.49 | 4 | -1.49 | 3.86 | -1.63 | 3.61 | -1.88 | 4.12 | 3.5 | -0.62 | 3.61 | -0.51 | 3.96 | -0.16 |
| Michael Montgomery | SEA | 2.04 | 4.24 | 2.2 | 4.15 | 2.11 | 2.98 | 0.94 | 2.04 | 4.24 | 2.2 | 4.15 | 2.11 | 2.98 | 0.94 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 3.58 | 4.05 | 0.47 | 4.1 | 0.52 | 4.6 | 1.02 | 3.94 | 3.79 | -0.15 | 4.12 | 0.18 | 5.28 | 1.34 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 4.2 | 4.2 | 0 | 4.06 | -0.14 | 4.42 | 0.22 | 3.44 | 4.24 | 0.8 | 3.92 | 0.48 | 4.15 | 0.71 |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 4.69 | 3.44 | -1.25 | 3.33 | -1.36 | 4.16 | -0.53 | 5.06 | 3.42 | -1.64 | 3.33 | -1.73 | 4.31 | -0.75 |
| Ryan Vogelsong | SFO | 4.05 | 4.57 | 0.52 | 4.57 | 0.52 | 4.56 | 0.51 | 3.72 | 4.71 | 0.99 | 4.59 | 0.87 | 3.54 | -0.18 |
| Shelby Miller | ATL | 1.94 | 4 | 2.06 | 3.89 | 1.95 | 3.18 | 1.24 | 2.97 | 4.19 | 1.22 | 3.99 | 1.02 | 2.8 | -0.17 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 2.09 | 3.27 | 1.18 | 3.3 | 1.21 | 2.68 | 0.59 | 2.67 | 2.93 | 0.26 | 2.91 | 0.24 | 2.56 | -0.11 |
| Taylor Jungmann | MIL | 2.74 | 3.49 | 0.75 | 3.71 | 0.97 | 3.18 | 0.44 | 2.74 | 3.49 | 0.75 | 3.71 | 0.97 | 3.18 | 0.44 |
Chris Sale has a 28.7 K-BB%. That’s right. That’s his K% minus his BB%. His .300 BABIP is actually low for his defense because it’s been so damn hard to make contact even when he throws the ball in the strike zone. His 70.8 LOB% is not low, but it is for him with an awesome 78.8 career LOB% that ranks among the best all time. It’s should be harder to drive runners in when you can’t hit the ball.
Cole Hamels has a .347 BABIP in June, which is basically due to two starts at Yankee Stadium and in Cincinnati where it was above .280. That essentially explains the ERA gap over the last month. He still has a rate well below his team’s poor defensively allowed rate, but in line with his .284 career BABIP. He exhibits some exceptional indicators, so there’s no issue at all here.
Dallas Keuchel has a 14.0 HR/FB, but that’s fine when only 15.6% of your batted balls are in the air. His .233 BABIP is not backed by any otherwise great indicators, but with his contact authority and ground ball rates being so extreme, it’s tough to argue with too much considering Houston’s .276 mark. The 81.2 LOB% is a little high, but there’s not too much of a problem with where his ERA is at, especially if the strikeout rate is going to increase.
Danny Salazar has a 23.6 K-BB% that other pitchers dream of, but a 17.1 HR/FB rate and .323 BABIP that isn’t going to get much better with the Cleveland defense. He does occasionally get hit hard, but has just a 19.2 LD% and is difficult to make contact against in the strike zone. He’s also improved on his GB rate at 45.5% this year from a 34.4% career rate coming into the season. I expect his ERA to trend downward at least in line with his FIP.
Eduardo Rodriguez stranded 100% of his runners through his first three starts. That’s now at 66.1% with a BABIP that is likely due for at least some regression. His IFFB% is strong, but comes with a 24.2 LD%.
Erasmo Ramirez has an 88.5 LOB% in June.
Ian Kennedy has an impossibly unsustainable 21.7 HR/FB. That’s the beginning and end of it.
Kyle Hendricks hasn’t had much luck in stranding runners with a 67.5 LOB% that could see some improvement.
Rubby de la Rosa sees most of his ERA and estimator gap caused by a 18.1 HR/FB that has also kept his LOB just below 70%, though not extremely low at 69%.
Editor’s Note: Sonny Gray has been scratched from his start tonight. Right-hander Chris Bassitt will start in his place.
Sonny Gray has a .259 BABIP I won’t even quibble much with due to the other information presented in the chart below. His 5.3 HR/FB is still a little low even if half his starts are in Oakland. He’s had marks above 8% each of his first two seasons. I expect some regression in his 79.4 LOB% too. All in all, he may have the right circumstances to stay slightly ahead of his estimators, but is still due for some adjustment.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 9.5 IFFB% – 86.8 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 0.275 | 0.235 | -0.04 | 14.3% | 74.1% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 0.275 | 0.277 | 0.002 | 9.2% | 85.6% |
| Carlos Frias | LOS | 0.298 | 0.336 | 0.038 | 6.5% | 90.2% |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 0.327 | 0.300 | -0.027 | 4.8% | 73.6% |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 0.287 | 0.295 | 0.008 | 9.6% | 90.5% |
| Cole Hamels | PHI | 0.313 | 0.274 | -0.039 | 16.0% | 83.7% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.276 | 0.233 | -0.043 | 10.0% | 90.7% |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 0.273 | 0.357 | 0.084 | 16.3% | 90.0% |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 0.313 | 0.323 | 0.01 | 8.6% | 81.6% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 0.305 | 0.268 | -0.037 | 12.1% | 88.8% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 0.278 | 0.283 | 0.005 | 9.4% | 80.0% |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 0.299 | 0.309 | 0.01 | 2.9% | 89.3% |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | 0.310 | 0.296 | -0.014 | 10.1% | 86.3% |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 0.305 | 0.130 | -0.175 | 14.3% | 92.3% |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 0.291 | 0.322 | 0.031 | 6.6% | 92.7% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 0.317 | 0.328 | 0.011 | 11.4% | 91.3% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 0.311 | 0.313 | 0.002 | 0.0% | 83.7% |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.288 | 0.231 | -0.057 | 5.9% | 93.9% |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 0.293 | 0.308 | 0.015 | 7.8% | 90.9% |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 0.292 | 0.317 | 0.025 | 9.0% | 86.1% |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 0.283 | 0.243 | -0.04 | 10.6% | 80.6% |
| Mat Latos | FLA | 0.294 | 0.328 | 0.034 | 7.5% | 87.1% |
| Michael Montgomery | SEA | 0.287 | 0.243 | -0.044 | 2.6% | 91.2% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 0.287 | 0.248 | -0.039 | 10.7% | 87.6% |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 0.300 | 0.290 | -0.01 | 10.5% | 91.5% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 0.293 | 0.290 | -0.003 | 8.4% | 82.4% |
| Ryan Vogelsong | SFO | 0.287 | 0.267 | -0.02 | 7.4% | 92.3% |
| Shelby Miller | ATL | 0.299 | 0.236 | -0.063 | 6.9% | 88.5% |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 0.283 | 0.259 | -0.024 | 12.6% | 86.5% |
| Taylor Jungmann | MIL | 0.307 | 0.318 | 0.011 | 16.7% | 92.7% |
Carlos Frias has no real positive indicators towards a low BABIP and adds a 23.4 LD% to the numbers in the chart above. He does have a 2.57 GB/FB, generating very few fly balls, so a very reasonable 26.9 Hard% could help him, but hasn’t so far. I’d look for some regression, but can’t promise much.
Danny Duffy has seen over a 100 point increase in his BABIP this season. Just as last year’s mark wasn’t sustainable, this one isn’t either. He does have an absurd 29.8 LD%, but that’s something I’d expect to drop. He doesn’t miss many bats in the strike zone, but does launch a lot of fly balls with an elite IFFB%, which is only 2 points above his great career rate.
Jon Niese does have his strongest GB/FB ratio ever (2.44), but has no good BABIP indicators and has a .313 career mark.
Marco Estrada has an elite Z-Contact rate and actually has the worst IFFB% of his career, which is still league average. His career 18.1 LD% and .272 BABIP with more fly balls than ground balls allow you to believe in this a little bit considering a decent defense, though he’ll probably see at least a slight increase.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Andrew Heaney – I project him very similarly to C.J. Wilson last night. The difference is a much lower price tag that allows him to have potential value beyond it. The park tilts an otherwise neutral matchup in his favor. I think you get some league average, mid-rotation stuff here and that’s worth more than the cost of admission here.
Carlos Frias equals ground balls and swinging strikes at the minimum price. It never moves and I don’t understand why. He’s not great and maybe not even good, but this man deserves better. I’d generally worry about the park, but not as much with his ground ball rate and again, the price. You can pair this dumpster diving options with the next guy in GPPs and still afford some offense.
Chris Sale is far and away the top overall pitching option tonight. The Cardinals don’t handle LHP well (24.0 K%, 0.7 Hard-Soft%, 89 wRC+). He has the clear top projected K% with only one other pitcher within even miles of the same area code. Top pitcher and top three value right here, even at a massive cost.
Cole Hamels – I’m not going to omit him as I have him inside my top five overall, but with a gap between him and the top three. He’s in a good spot, but I just think a lot of times you get what you pay for. I think he’s a very good pitcher, but not a Cy Young contender, similar to Sonny Gray. Both his ERA and estimators back that up. There are other, cheaper options I’d lean towards today over him.
Dallas Keuchel is a similarly priced option I’d rather use than Hamels. It’s very true that Hamels likely has him in K% tonight and that’s what we care most about, but Keuchel likely has him everywhere else. He’s consistently going very deep into games and thrives at generating weak ground balls. When you thrive at just such a thing, who better to face than the Royals? I still think he’ll generate enough strikeouts (four to six) to be useful. Keuchel ranks in my top three overall (well below Sale though) and among a group of several already mentioned and still to come in value in the 2nd tier. A high floor is obviously the more attractive thing than his upside. He’s more cash/double-up than GPP worthy.
Danny Duffy has the potential to generate a higher than average strikeout rate at a low price due to the matchup, but there’s also significant chance they could crush him. I actually have him rated similarly to Hamels value wise (3rd tier), but with a much wider range of outcomes. Opposite from his counter-part, he’s more a GPP long shot than even touchable in cash/double-up games.
Danny Salazar is my #2 guy tonight and potentially a better value than Sale in my top tier. I don’t expect as many strikeouts, but he is the only other guy within reach at about 75% of the price. He’s in a good park and the Rays will strike out some (22.7% at home, 21.3% vs RHP). Obviously the risk is higher here too or he would be priced even higher.
Eduardo Rodriguez has a very low price everywhere except FanDuel. The Blue Jays destroy LHP, but have been cold, so he’s with Duffy in my “might be worth a shot” group due to the low cost. This is just as likely to turn into a bombing, but could end up in a few strikeouts and a decent outing against a cold team.
Gerrit Cole – I only mention him again here to reiterate that the cost combined with the matchup don’t suggest there’s much value to be had here. He’s outside my top five and middle of the pack overall. Hopefully, I’ll be back on him next time out.
Ian Kennedy is a candidate if you believe in significant HR/FB regression. He’s in a very good spot in a great park tonight with potentially the #3 strikeout rate (though far behind the top two). The price is not as attractive as you’d hope though, which leaves him in that 3rd value tier along with some of the dumpster diving plays and accurately prices ones.
Jon Niese faces a cold team in a good environment at a lower half of the board price in a spot where he has a chance to see a league average K rate. He’s not the first pitcher you should reach for, but might not be a bad choice tonight. He’s at the bottom of my 2nd value tier and essentially bridges the gap to the longshots mentioned already.
Jordan Zimmermann tops the 2nd tier and rounds out my top five overall. The difference between the expectation between he and Hamels is merely cost. The K rate might be lower and not something daily fantasy players dream of, but he has a much better chance of keeping everything in the park. The Atlanta lineup is nothing without Freeman and not much even with him.
Kyle Hendricks does not miss a lot of bats, but is in a good spot tonight at a solid price. He’s another one of those “might be worth a shot” type guys, but with both less upside and risk of ruin perhaps than Duffy or Rodriguez. He generally compares well as a RH version of the guy he’s facing tonight.
Lance Lynn fits the Cole Hamels mode for me tonight. I expect him to keep the ball in the park and he does have a favorable matchup, but I really don’t see enormous upside here (the White Sox strike out below average). I have essentially as worth his price, but not much more.
Marco Estrada has pitched well and even cut down on his HRs in a tough park this year. He faces a weakened Boston lineup without Pedroia and Hanley. The Red Sox make contact and will likely hurt an above average strikeout rate, but he has some room to spare to still be plenty useful at this price. Estrada is outside my top five overall, but solidly within my 2nd value tier. There’s some risk of ruin, but a decent chance that this likely contrarian pick generates more points than you pay for.
Taylor Jungmann is does not carry a site minimum price tag, but has a very low cost on every site tonight and faces the Phillies. I’m not entirely buying into him having a league average strikeout rate and the Phillies might even pull that down, but he’s managed contact well and they struggle to hit the ball hard. I have him outside my top five overall, but he’s next before getting to the middle of the pack and quite possibly my top value overall tonight.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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