Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Wednesday, August 26th
It’s a busier than usual Wednesday night with 13 games on the docket, so we’re skipping the afternoon games altogether with the earlier of just two starting at 1pm. Yesterday was a day where the chalk mostly dominated on the mound with little success to be found in the mid and low price ranges. Tonight could be some of the same with two of the top three strikeout rates in the majors taking the ball at home, but we’ll turn the whole thing upside down and shake it to see if anything else falls out.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 2 | 3.78 | 6.28 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 3.95 | 4.57 | PHI | 89 | 86 | 125 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 21.9% | 15.4% | 8.7% |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 1.8 | 3.39 | 5.75 | 3.3 | 1.02 | 3.1 | 2.7 | CIN | 101 | 102 | 111 | 18.4% | 7.4% | 18.2% | 17.1% | 6.4% |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 9.4 | 3.25 | 6.11 | 1.46 | 0.94 | 3.08 | 3.25 | MIN | 77 | 90 | 97 | 24.6% | 7.2% | 20.0% | 9.1% | 12.7% |
| Chris Narveson | FLA | 4.3 | 3.04 | 0.63 | 1.01 | 2.89 | 3.47 | PIT | 92 | 97 | 115 | 24.8% | 7.0% | 18.3% | 19.4% | 5.8% | |
| Chris Sale | CHW | -7.4 | 2.49 | 6.79 | 1.1 | 1.08 | 2.59 | 0.73 | BOS | 85 | 104 | 118 | 29.9% | 6.1% | 19.5% | 10.5% | 10.8% |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | -1.3 | 4.71 | 6. | 1.47 | 0.94 | 4.85 | MIL | 85 | 89 | 128 | ||||||
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 2.9 | 4.21 | 6.1 | 0.76 | 1.08 | 4.42 | 4.86 | TOR | 104 | 108 | 152 | 16.7% | 6.9% | 20.9% | 10.3% | 10.4% |
| David Holmberg | CIN | 3 | 5.68 | 4.65 | 0.88 | 1.02 | 5.83 | 6.73 | LOS | 99 | 110 | 38 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 21.6% | 17.9% | 6.9% |
| David Price | TOR | -1.6 | 3.01 | 7.16 | 1.1 | 1.08 | 3.16 | 3.31 | TEX | 100 | 91 | 85 | 22.2% | 5.5% | 18.9% | 10.4% | 10.1% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | -5 | 3.63 | 5.89 | 1.58 | 1.03 | 3.33 | 4.84 | SDG | 85 | 86 | 131 | 21.3% | 7.9% | 24.0% | 9.2% | 9.0% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 3.3 | 4.33 | 5.36 | 0.63 | 1.05 | 4.45 | 4.95 | DET | 110 | 120 | 144 | 19.0% | 8.7% | 20.4% | 9.1% | 10.9% |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 2.2 | 4.21 | 6.23 | 0.88 | 0.87 | 4.46 | 5.01 | CHC | 96 | 96 | 155 | 19.9% | 8.1% | 20.9% | 13.9% | 8.7% |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | -3.4 | 4.17 | 5.76 | 1.87 | 1.01 | 4.18 | 4.81 | FLA | 84 | 102 | 96 | 17.7% | 8.0% | 21.7% | 13.0% | 9.9% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | -4.9 | 4 | 6. | 0.44 | 1.01 | 4 | NYM | 89 | 94 | 199 | ||||||
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | -3.9 | 3.87 | 6. | 1.59 | 0.94 | 4.29 | 4.12 | CLE | 108 | 100 | 120 | 18.9% | 8.9% | 21.5% | 11.0% | 11.9% |
| John Lackey | STL | 1.7 | 3.84 | 6.53 | 1.24 | 1.09 | 4.07 | 3.45 | ARI | 99 | 96 | 110 | 19.7% | 6.2% | 21.2% | 12.3% | 10.1% |
| Johnny Cueto | KAN | 10.2 | 3.33 | 7.04 | 1.26 | 1.04 | 3.05 | 4.46 | BAL | 88 | 100 | 69 | 21.8% | 5.0% | 21.1% | 10.9% | 8.2% |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 4.2 | 3.99 | 6.42 | 0.87 | 1.05 | 4.7 | 2.91 | ANA | 92 | 100 | 101 | 20.1% | 6.7% | 18.3% | 7.7% | 13.1% |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 4.1 | 3.69 | 5.84 | 1.66 | 0.87 | 3.89 | 3.21 | SFO | 111 | 109 | 75 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 22.9% | 12.0% | 9.0% |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 3.2 | 3.65 | 5. | 1.62 | 1.09 | 3.15 | 3.14 | STL | 91 | 90 | 117 | 23.1% | 7.2% | 22.1% | 10.1% | 6.2% |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | -3.8 | 3.85 | 6.25 | 1.57 | 1.08 | 3.88 | CHW | 86 | 93 | 115 | ||||||
| Shelby Miller | ATL | -2.3 | 4.38 | 6.05 | 1.16 | 0.98 | 4.17 | 3.59 | COL | 80 | 94 | 65 | 22.1% | 8.5% | 18.4% | 10.5% | 9.5% |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | 2.6 | 3.81 | 5.07 | 1.83 | 0.94 | 3.37 | 2.97 | TAM | 100 | 92 | 96 | 22.4% | 7.7% | 22.0% | 11.1% | 13.7% |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | -8.2 | 3.24 | 6.05 | 2.91 | 1.03 | 3.41 | 4.45 | WAS | 96 | 97 | 132 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 20.6% | 13.0% | 5.1% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 7.7 | 3.84 | 5.97 | 1.02 | 1.04 | 4.16 | 3.82 | KAN | 107 | 93 | 106 | 16.3% | 5.7% | 18.7% | 8.7% | 12.3% |
| Yohan Flande | COL | -2.8 | 3.73 | 5.35 | 2.7 | 0.98 | 3.46 | 4.02 | ATL | 91 | 82 | 88 | 18.3% | 7.4% | 18.9% | 15.9% | 3.8% |
Brett Anderson has been very marginal in recent starts with a reduce strikeout rate. Regular readers know the drill by now though. Nothing’s perfect and it doesn’t always work out this way, but he continues to lead all qualified starting pitchers in ground ball rate (66.4%) as one of only three even over 60% (four if you include Jaime Garcia) and most of those ground balls are weakly hit (2.0 Hard-Soft%). Unfortunately, the ceiling is low because he doesn’t strike out a lot of batters, but he has only twice allowed more than three ERs and only once more than four this season. It’s hard to put together rallies without the ability to elevate (though many may be killed by double plays) unless there’s a ton of weird BABIP luck. Cincinnati is a decent offense with a 12.3 HR/FB at home and 15.1 HR/FB vs LHP. With a slight upward adjustment for run environment, they are not a great matchup.
Chris Archer leads all RHPs in K% (30.6) this year. He also seems to be the one Tampa Bay pitcher that has been allowed to continue going deep into games at this point in the season. He’s coming off a complete game one-hit shutout with 11 strikeouts. I’m not sure whether that bodes well or not for tonight’s effort, though he only threw 98 pitches and the same number in the start before that in which he was hammered for eight runs in Texas. You never really know, but the majority of his starts have been pretty awesome this year. The Twins are the worst road offense in baseball (15.9 K-BB%, 8.7 HR/FB) and below average vs RHP. They’ve struck out 25.5% over the last week with a 0.0 Hard-Soft% and are a top park adjusted matchup tonight.
Chris Sale leads all major league starters in K% (33.6) this year and has the 3rd highest SwStr (15.6%) in the pitchf/x era (since 2002). He’s struck out 29 of his last 56 batters and hasn’t struck out fewer than six in a start since April. His floor might be some other decent pitchers’ ceilings. If that’s not enough, he has a 0.0 Hard-Soft% when the occasional batter does make contact. He has a 27.3 K-BB% at home since last season. Boston is a poor road team, but above average against LHP and adjust upward in a positive run environment into an unfavorable matchup here.
David Price has gone at least seven innings in eight of his last nine starts, including eight innings four times, striking out seven or more in seven of those starts. He has a -4.1 Hard-Soft% over the last two weeks and a 19.1 K-BB% for the season with a 20.4 K-BB% on the road since last season. The Rangers are a below average team against LHP (22.1 K%), but with a 13.1 HR/FB against them and 12.0 HR/FB at home. A positive park adjustment makes them a neutral matchup here.
Gio Gonzalez has allowed 10 ERs over a total of 7.2 innings in his last two starts and has really been not much more than a mediocre pitcher this year after making the transformation from a high strikeout pitcher to an extreme ground ball pitcher. Washington seems to love turning strikeouts into ground balls, but it’s only a good thing if you have an infield that can turn them into outs. He faces a poor Padres offense that leans RH, but has a 23.7 K% vs LHP. They have been hitting well lately and park adjust into a neutral matchup tonight.
Johnny Cueto was BABIP’d and watched the Kansas City defense uncharacteristically boot the ball all over the place in his last start in Boston, but only struck out three of 30 batters. Some would say he’s had that coming for three years, but his BABIP now stands at a more reasonable .253 for the season and even .310 in his five starts since being traded in addition to a reduced strikeout rate. This is still a good pitcher, who should benefit from the park and great defense behind him for the rest of the season. He faces a Baltimore offense that struggles on the road (17.4 K-BB%), but a 14.6 HR/FB, though they would seem like a bad fit for this particular park. Accounting for a cold streak over the last week as well, they are a slightly favorable park adjusted matchup here.
Justin Verlander has allowed one ER or less in five of his last six starts (although with a few unearned runs thrown in), but just as importantly (and maybe even more so), he’s struck out at least seven in four of his last five with a 12.3 SwStr% over the last month. Is Justin Verlander back? It’s too soon to say, but we’ll have to watch him with interest the rest of the way. The Angels aren’t a good road team, but average against RHP and get the park bump to really a neutral matchup here.
Kyle Hendricks has allowed at least three ERs in less than six innings in four of his last five starts, but maintains an above average 15.3 K-BB% for the season, though his walk rate has risen to 8.4% in August. He faces a good home team and top offense vs RHP, but in a great environment (7.7 HR/FB at home) that makes them a favorable park adjusted matchup and at a time where they’re struggling with a few key guys out of the lineup (22.6 K%, 5.6 HR/FB, -2.5 Hard-Soft% over the last week).
Patrick Corbin lasted just 12 batters and two innings, allowing four runs in his last start, his worst since returning from Tommy John surgery, but retains a strong 18.2 K-BB% through nine starts. He is allowing a bit more hard contact than one would like (16.3 Hard-Soft%) and has a 16.2 HR/FB, but three of those were in his second start on the road in NY. The Cardinals are not a good road offense and struggle against LHP (22.6 K%, 4.2 Hard-Soft%). They adjust upward to a slightly unfavorable matchup in a great hitting environment.
Tyler Duffey started his first major league game in Toronto and was relieved after a two-inning beating. He walked five in his next start but struck out seven Cleveland batters. In his most recent, he struck out eight Orioles without a walk in 7.2 innings and has struck out 15 of his last 54 batters overall with a double digit SwStr% and has managed contact well so far (2.3 Hard-Soft%). Perhaps this is why the numbers are screaming his name tonight. Tampa Bay is a decent offense, though less against RHP and make for a favorable matchup in a good pitching environment. They strike out slightly more than the average team.
Tyson Ross throws his sliders and generates tons of ground balls and quite a few strikeouts while struggling with his walk rate against LHBs. Many may not realize that he’s the 3rd (or 4th depending on how many innings you’re using to qualify) part of that extreme ground ball equation mentioned in the Brett Anderson blurb above. He has reduced K% (22.6) on the road with a 10.4 BB%, but could find some success against a Washington lineup that leans heavily RH, though slightly less with the return of Denard Span. They are a neutral offense with some power (12.5 HR/FB at home, 13.1 HR/FB vs RHP) but have been hitting the ball well lately (25.7 Hard-Soft%, 15.2 BB% over the last week) and bump up to a slightly unfavorable matchup with park effects taken into account.
Yohan Flande has started in five of six appearances over the last month with decent results considering where he calls home. His strikeout rate is unimpressive, but he faces a terrible offense vs LHP (20.4 K%) and one that doesn’t hit the ball hard (5.5 Hard-Soft%) overall. He has one of the top park adjusted matchups of the night.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized.
Wei-Yin Chen (.276 BAIBP – 83.5 LOB% – 13.0 HR/FB) – I’ll leave the BABIP alone due his profile and environment and he should see a benefit to his HR rate in Kansas City tonight (he’d be a perfect pitcher for that park overall), but the strand rate is not something you can buy into.
Shelby Miller (.271 BABIP – 77.2 LOB% – 6.3 HR/FB) – He should do fine, but is unfortunately slightly over-priced and over-valued in a great matchup.
John Lackey (.288 BABIP – 79.7 LOB% – 8.3 HR/FB) – His HR rate isn’t unsustainably low, but could be challenging with the negative park shift against a team with a 15.8 Hard-Soft% vs RHP and 24.0 Hard-Soft% over the last week. His strand rate is 7.2 points above his career rate.
Hector Santiago (.256 BABIP – 82.2 LOB% – 8.9 HR/FB) – Toronto punched him in the mouth like they do most lefties in his last start and you can see what’s happened in the ERA chart with a 62.5 LOB% in August, but he’s still well ahead of the game. Man, does xFIP really hate him, though his 14.2 K-BB% isn’t bad. The Tigers are another offense that can help regression along for a lefty.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Bartolo Colon – This is less about the fact that he was so ineffective last time out in Colorado or really for the better part of the last few months, but he’s facing an improved Philadelphia offense and actually hurt his hand when he was hit by a pitch in his last start. There was some question about whether he was going to be able to make tonight’s start and although it looks like he will, the Mets say they have a back-up plan just in case. That doesn’t sound like a pitcher you want to spend your money on in a situation that was marginal to begin with.
Jerad Eickhoff had a fine debut against a weak Miami offense but doesn’t project to miss a lot of bats and meets the hottest offense in baseball tonight.
Chris Narveson – Really? Is this a mistake? It’s 2015, right? This guy hasn’t started a game since 2012 and only two that year. He’s faced 45 batters in relief this year and while he’s struck out 12 of them, he’s allowed four HRs.
David Holmberg might be the worst starting pitcher in the majors.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | 18.0% | 3.2% | Road | 15.4% | 3.6% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| Brett Anderson | Dodgers | 17.0% | 6.9% | Road | 20.3% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 4.0% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 25.3% | 7.4% | Home | 26.8% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 7.0% |
| Chris Narveson | Marlins | 26.7% | 6.7% | Home | 32.0% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 25.8% | 9.7% |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | 31.4% | 5.4% | Home | 32.5% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 55.8% | 5.8% |
| Cody Anderson | Indians | 10.4% | 4.2% | Home | 9.6% | 6.4% | L14 Days | ||
| Colby Lewis | Rangers | 17.5% | 5.5% | Home | 17.3% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 6.0% |
| David Holmberg | Reds | 11.7% | 12.1% | Home | 12.2% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 4.7% | 11.6% |
| David Price | Blue Jays | 25.1% | 4.2% | Road | 25.4% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 1.6% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 22.7% | 8.5% | Home | 23.1% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 10.0% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | 20.3% | 9.1% | Road | 19.7% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 11.6% |
| Jake Peavy | Giants | 18.3% | 7.4% | Home | 16.9% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 12.7% | 7.3% |
| Jeff Locke | Pirates | 16.9% | 8.3% | Road | 17.8% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 13.2% | 7.9% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | 21.7% | 4.4% | Home | L14 Days | 21.7% | 4.4% | ||
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | 19.8% | 7.7% | Road | 17.7% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 7.8% |
| John Lackey | Cardinals | 18.8% | 5.6% | Road | 16.1% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 21.0% | 3.2% |
| Johnny Cueto | Royals | 23.7% | 6.1% | Home | 26.9% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 11.9% | 0.0% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | 19.6% | 6.9% | Home | 16.2% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 6.0% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 18.6% | 5.2% | Road | 17.5% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 8.9% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 20.3% | 6.4% | Home | 24.5% | 3.2% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 7.9% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 17.2% | 5.3% | Road | 16.4% | 5.4% | L14 Days | ||
| Shelby Miller | Braves | 18.0% | 9.1% | Home | 18.5% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 14.6% |
| Tyler Duffey | Twins | 23.9% | 10.5% | Road | 20.5% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 9.3% |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 24.7% | 9.5% | Road | 22.6% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 12.5% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Orioles | 19.2% | 5.3% | Road | 18.2% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 3.8% |
| Yohan Flande | Rockies | 14.5% | 6.5% | Road | 17.3% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 17.3% | 7.7% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | Home | 19.4% | 6.5% | RH | 19.8% | 5.8% | L7Days | 22.8% | 9.1% |
| Reds | Home | 18.9% | 9.0% | LH | 19.5% | 8.7% | L7Days | 18.4% | 9.8% |
| Twins | Road | 22.7% | 6.8% | RH | 21.1% | 6.7% | L7Days | 25.5% | 7.2% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.3% | 6.8% | LH | 22.3% | 6.6% | L7Days | 19.9% | 8.2% |
| Red Sox | Road | 18.1% | 7.8% | LH | 19.4% | 8.0% | L7Days | 22.3% | 4.2% |
| Brewers | Road | 20.7% | 5.6% | RH | 20.6% | 6.5% | L7Days | 21.8% | 5.7% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 20.3% | 8.0% | RH | 18.9% | 8.4% | L7Days | 14.0% | 7.9% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.0% | 9.7% | LH | 21.0% | 9.7% | L7Days | 27.5% | 5.8% |
| Rangers | Home | 18.8% | 8.3% | LH | 22.1% | 7.2% | L7Days | 18.1% | 6.5% |
| Padres | Road | 21.7% | 7.2% | LH | 23.7% | 7.9% | L7Days | 21.3% | 5.3% |
| Tigers | Home | 18.3% | 7.5% | LH | 21.8% | 9.4% | L7Days | 15.2% | 7.1% |
| Cubs | Road | 24.2% | 8.7% | RH | 23.9% | 8.9% | L7Days | 23.3% | 8.6% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.4% | 6.9% | LH | 21.6% | 6.4% | L7Days | 17.3% | 8.8% |
| Mets | Road | 22.1% | 6.8% | RH | 20.7% | 7.5% | L7Days | 17.8% | 8.7% |
| Indians | Home | 19.0% | 9.3% | RH | 19.0% | 8.9% | L7Days | 18.4% | 10.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 20.9% | 8.1% | RH | 20.8% | 7.6% | L7Days | 20.5% | 5.9% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.6% | 6.2% | RH | 22.2% | 6.9% | L7Days | 22.7% | 5.4% |
| Angels | Road | 18.5% | 7.2% | RH | 19.4% | 7.1% | L7Days | 17.1% | 5.6% |
| Giants | Home | 18.2% | 7.2% | RH | 18.5% | 7.3% | L7Days | 22.6% | 7.8% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.9% | 7.6% | LH | 22.6% | 9.1% | L7Days | 23.1% | 8.7% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.1% | 6.8% | RH | 20.2% | 6.3% | L7Days | 16.2% | 6.6% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.0% | 5.8% | RH | 20.4% | 6.1% | L7Days | 19.1% | 5.9% |
| Rays | Home | 22.6% | 7.3% | RH | 21.6% | 7.0% | L7Days | 17.7% | 7.2% |
| Nationals | Home | 20.7% | 9.0% | RH | 21.4% | 8.6% | L7Days | 23.9% | 15.2% |
| Royals | Home | 14.1% | 6.8% | LH | 14.8% | 5.6% | L7Days | 12.6% | 6.5% |
| Braves | Home | 18.1% | 8.5% | LH | 20.4% | 8.1% | L7Days | 22.3% | 7.5% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | 21.3% | 9.8% | 7.7% | Road | 21.8% | 10.8% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 17.6% | 30.8% | 15.4% |
| Brett Anderson | Dodgers | 15.3% | 13.9% | 3.3% | Road | 12.5% | 9.6% | 3.8% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 42.9% | 0.0% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 22.0% | 9.1% | 11.1% | Home | 21.9% | 8.9% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 10.5% | 6.7% | 13.3% |
| Chris Narveson | Marlins | 13.3% | 25.0% | 6.3% | Home | 18.8% | 25.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 36.4% | 9.1% |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | 19.5% | 9.3% | 12.1% | Home | 19.8% | 10.4% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Cody Anderson | Indians | 22.2% | 11.8% | 11.8% | Home | 18.2% | 12.0% | 12.0% | L14 Days | |||
| Colby Lewis | Rangers | 21.1% | 9.6% | 9.4% | Home | 20.7% | 9.8% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 0.0% | 7.7% |
| David Holmberg | Reds | 18.9% | 18.3% | 6.1% | Home | 19.3% | 17.4% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 41.7% | 0.0% |
| David Price | Blue Jays | 21.8% | 8.5% | 10.1% | Road | 21.1% | 9.1% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 4.0% | 8.0% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 20.6% | 6.0% | 7.8% | Home | 20.8% | 3.7% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 36.7% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | 18.7% | 8.5% | 11.7% | Road | 19.8% | 8.6% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 12.8% | 4.0% | 16.0% |
| Jake Peavy | Giants | 19.7% | 8.4% | 10.2% | Home | 20.6% | 6.7% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 12.5% | 6.3% |
| Jeff Locke | Pirates | 22.5% | 13.3% | 7.5% | Road | 21.3% | 14.7% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 30.5% | 18.8% | 18.8% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | 23.5% | 0.0% | 11.1% | Home | L14 Days | 23.5% | 0.0% | 11.1% | |||
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | 20.2% | 10.3% | 10.3% | Road | 19.9% | 6.5% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| John Lackey | Cardinals | 20.7% | 10.5% | 12.1% | Road | 19.3% | 14.8% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Johnny Cueto | Royals | 20.3% | 9.2% | 10.4% | Home | 18.8% | 11.4% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | 20.7% | 7.4% | 11.9% | Home | 16.7% | 7.7% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 0.0% | 26.7% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 20.8% | 8.8% | 11.9% | Road | 20.7% | 6.2% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 27.6% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 22.0% | 16.9% | 7.8% | Home | 15.4% | 9.1% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 32.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 22.2% | 12.5% | 8.1% | Road | 22.4% | 12.0% | 8.6% | L14 Days | |||
| Shelby Miller | Braves | 18.2% | 8.6% | 10.5% | Home | 19.8% | 5.9% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Tyler Duffey | Twins | 20.9% | 16.7% | 16.7% | Road | 25.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 20.4% | 9.6% | 6.3% | Road | 22.3% | 13.9% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 21.9% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Orioles | 20.7% | 12.1% | 10.7% | Road | 17.3% | 9.9% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 5.9% | 29.4% |
| Yohan Flande | Rockies | 17.4% | 17.8% | 4.1% | Road | 17.6% | 19.2% | 3.8% | L14 Days | 13.2% | 27.3% | 0.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | Home | 22.4% | 10.5% | 8.5% | RH | 22.7% | 9.3% | 8.6% | L7Days | 25.7% | 21.0% | 6.5% |
| Reds | Home | 23.2% | 12.3% | 9.2% | LH | 22.7% | 15.1% | 8.1% | L7Days | 25.7% | 8.5% | 14.1% |
| Twins | Road | 19.7% | 8.7% | 11.2% | RH | 21.2% | 10.2% | 11.7% | L7Days | 24.5% | 10.7% | 16.1% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.3% | 9.0% | 7.9% | LH | 22.8% | 11.4% | 6.5% | L7Days | 23.6% | 9.8% | 4.9% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.6% | 9.0% | 11.5% | LH | 19.8% | 11.5% | 10.5% | L7Days | 22.3% | 11.5% | 8.2% |
| Brewers | Road | 19.4% | 10.2% | 7.8% | RH | 20.8% | 10.6% | 7.6% | L7Days | 17.2% | 23.1% | 7.7% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 19.0% | 13.2% | 13.9% | RH | 18.7% | 14.2% | 12.9% | L7Days | 18.3% | 15.0% | 11.7% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.2% | 12.8% | 9.7% | LH | 22.4% | 10.9% | 8.2% | L7Days | 20.7% | 6.4% | 10.6% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.7% | 12.0% | 8.6% | LH | 19.9% | 13.1% | 9.0% | L7Days | 18.1% | 15.4% | 15.4% |
| Padres | Road | 19.8% | 9.0% | 9.8% | LH | 21.6% | 9.1% | 9.9% | L7Days | 24.4% | 13.3% | 17.8% |
| Tigers | Home | 22.4% | 9.4% | 9.8% | LH | 25.2% | 12.5% | 8.6% | L7Days | 23.4% | 11.5% | 7.7% |
| Cubs | Road | 20.7% | 11.3% | 7.4% | RH | 20.1% | 12.7% | 9.6% | L7Days | 20.6% | 31.7% | 8.3% |
| Marlins | Home | 18.5% | 9.0% | 8.8% | LH | 20.9% | 12.8% | 7.8% | L7Days | 16.2% | 9.4% | 9.4% |
| Mets | Road | 23.1% | 9.9% | 10.6% | RH | 22.4% | 10.6% | 12.0% | L7Days | 22.6% | 26.6% | 7.8% |
| Indians | Home | 23.4% | 8.4% | 10.7% | RH | 21.1% | 10.1% | 12.3% | L7Days | 23.5% | 13.7% | 17.6% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.8% | 9.9% | 7.9% | RH | 21.5% | 10.3% | 9.0% | L7Days | 22.1% | 15.5% | 8.6% |
| Orioles | Road | 20.8% | 11.7% | 10.9% | RH | 20.7% | 14.6% | 9.3% | L7Days | 20.2% | 8.2% | 9.8% |
| Angels | Road | 18.4% | 10.7% | 9.2% | RH | 20.3% | 11.7% | 9.4% | L7Days | 14.4% | 8.5% | 11.9% |
| Giants | Home | 20.6% | 7.7% | 6.9% | RH | 21.4% | 10.6% | 7.0% | L7Days | 26.0% | 5.6% | 16.7% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.6% | 11.0% | 10.6% | LH | 19.9% | 10.5% | 9.8% | L7Days | 21.4% | 13.3% | 4.4% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.4% | 11.9% | 9.1% | RH | 21.4% | 11.4% | 9.7% | L7Days | 24.4% | 10.2% | 12.2% |
| Rockies | Road | 20.0% | 12.6% | 9.6% | RH | 21.0% | 14.3% | 8.8% | L7Days | 16.8% | 11.8% | 5.9% |
| Rays | Home | 21.4% | 10.6% | 9.1% | RH | 21.4% | 9.6% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.9% | 9.8% | 13.7% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.0% | 12.5% | 8.6% | RH | 20.8% | 13.1% | 8.9% | L7Days | 19.4% | 18.0% | 2.0% |
| Royals | Home | 21.1% | 7.6% | 8.8% | LH | 22.7% | 6.8% | 8.3% | L7Days | 18.0% | 9.8% | 8.2% |
| Braves | Home | 21.1% | 8.1% | 8.8% | LH | 20.8% | 9.6% | 6.2% | L7Days | 23.5% | 13.2% | 0.0% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.8 SwStr% – 2.06 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 17.0% | 6.4% | 2.66 | 11.3% | 4.9% | 2.31 |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 16.3% | 7.0% | 2.33 | 12.6% | 6.3% | 2.00 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 30.6% | 13.6% | 2.25 | 31.9% | 15.4% | 2.07 |
| Chris Narveson | FLA | 26.7% | 9.0% | 2.97 | 26.7% | 9.0% | 2.97 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 33.6% | 15.6% | 2.15 | 38.5% | 16.4% | 2.35 |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 10.4% | 8.0% | 1.30 | 11.8% | 7.4% | 1.59 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 17.6% | 8.3% | 2.12 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 1.74 |
| David Holmberg | CIN | 12.1% | 4.5% | 2.69 | 12.1% | 4.5% | 2.69 |
| David Price | TOR | 24.0% | 11.4% | 2.11 | 25.3% | 11.3% | 2.24 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 20.5% | 9.1% | 2.25 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 2.46 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 22.1% | 8.5% | 2.60 | 19.5% | 7.7% | 2.53 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 17.6% | 7.4% | 2.38 | 20.0% | 7.1% | 2.82 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 17.3% | 9.1% | 1.90 | 15.8% | 8.4% | 1.88 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 21.7% | 8.0% | 2.71 | 21.7% | 8.0% | 2.71 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 20.4% | 10.3% | 1.98 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 2.44 |
| John Lackey | STL | 18.0% | 9.0% | 2.00 | 21.5% | 10.7% | 2.01 |
| Johnny Cueto | KAN | 21.8% | 10.2% | 2.14 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 2.06 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 19.7% | 10.2% | 1.93 | 27.6% | 12.3% | 2.24 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 20.8% | 7.6% | 2.74 | 21.0% | 7.7% | 2.73 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 24.1% | 9.9% | 2.43 | 22.5% | 7.5% | 3.00 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 18.3% | 8.4% | 2.18 | 11.1% | 1.5% | 7.40 |
| Shelby Miller | ATL | 20.9% | 9.1% | 2.30 | 21.6% | 7.9% | 2.73 |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | 23.9% | 10.0% | 2.39 | 23.9% | 10.0% | 2.39 |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 24.9% | 12.3% | 2.02 | 23.3% | 10.4% | 2.24 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 19.7% | 8.8% | 2.24 | 19.4% | 8.8% | 2.20 |
| Yohan Flande | COL | 14.9% | 7.9% | 1.89 | 15.5% | 7.1% | 2.18 |
Kyle Hendricks is the closest we come to an outlier among the full season participants today and maybe we should be skeptical of his ability to maintain a league average K%, but Miguel Montero is an excellent framer (+10.1 RAA via StatCorner.com) and David Ross is even better (+9.5 RAA in half the pitches).
Patrick Corbin had a double digit SwStr% in three of his first four starts. Over the last month, he’s been below 9% in four of five starts, but only below 7.7% in his last, abbreviated start. It’s not as bad as it looks in the chart, but something he’s going to have increase again if he wishes to keep his K% above league average. He has a 20.6 K% over his short career.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.85 ERA – 3.78 SIERA – 3.85 xFIP – 3.85 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 4.9 | 3.97 | -0.93 | 3.96 | -0.94 | 4.07 | -0.83 | 6.18 | 4.75 | -1.43 | 4.58 | -1.6 | 5.83 | -0.35 |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 3.52 | 3.42 | -0.1 | 3.5 | -0.02 | 3.92 | 0.4 | 4.8 | 3.74 | -1.06 | 3.77 | -1.03 | 5.02 | 0.22 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 2.77 | 2.71 | -0.06 | 2.67 | -0.1 | 2.57 | -0.2 | 3.15 | 2.65 | -0.5 | 2.71 | -0.44 | 2.16 | -0.99 |
| Chris Narveson | FLA | 3.86 | 3.04 | -0.82 | 3.81 | -0.05 | 6.29 | 2.43 | 3.86 | 3.04 | -0.82 | 3.81 | -0.05 | 6.29 | 2.43 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 3.34 | 2.34 | -1 | 2.45 | -0.89 | 2.37 | -0.97 | 5.4 | 2.06 | -3.34 | 2.26 | -3.14 | 2.4 | -3 |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 4.31 | 4.71 | 0.4 | 4.38 | 0.07 | 4.48 | 0.17 | 9.6 | 4.88 | -4.72 | 4.89 | -4.71 | 5.86 | -3.74 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 4.29 | 4.2 | -0.09 | 4.45 | 0.16 | 4.1 | -0.19 | 3.55 | 4.42 | 0.87 | 4.47 | 0.92 | 4.91 | 1.36 |
| David Holmberg | CIN | 6.57 | 5.71 | -0.86 | 5.8 | -0.77 | 7.62 | 1.05 | 6.57 | 5.71 | -0.86 | 5.8 | -0.77 | 7.62 | 1.05 |
| David Price | TOR | 2.4 | 3.34 | 0.94 | 3.38 | 0.98 | 2.94 | 0.54 | 2.72 | 3.34 | 0.62 | 3.73 | 1.01 | 3.18 | 0.46 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 3.98 | 3.76 | -0.22 | 3.6 | -0.38 | 3.15 | -0.83 | 4.62 | 3.97 | -0.65 | 3.81 | -0.81 | 2.85 | -1.77 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 2.91 | 4.09 | 1.18 | 4.53 | 1.62 | 4.12 | 1.21 | 5 | 4.58 | -0.42 | 5.15 | 0.15 | 5.16 | 0.16 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 4.35 | 4.31 | -0.04 | 4.44 | 0.09 | 4.03 | -0.32 | 3.77 | 3.96 | 0.19 | 4.05 | 0.28 | 3.19 | -0.58 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 4.56 | 4.25 | -0.31 | 4.03 | -0.53 | 4.14 | -0.42 | 6.23 | 4.55 | -1.68 | 4.37 | -1.86 | 5.93 | -0.3 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4.12 | 4.12 | 1.96 | 1.96 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4.12 | 4.12 | 1.96 | 1.96 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 3.6 | 3.91 | 0.31 | 3.9 | 0.3 | 3.98 | 0.38 | 2.2 | 3.46 | 1.26 | 3.48 | 1.28 | 3.4 | 1.2 |
| John Lackey | STL | 2.99 | 4.05 | 1.06 | 3.98 | 0.99 | 3.59 | 0.6 | 3.41 | 3.65 | 0.24 | 3.6 | 0.19 | 3.94 | 0.53 |
| Johnny Cueto | KAN | 2.7 | 3.57 | 0.87 | 3.59 | 0.89 | 3.13 | 0.43 | 3 | 3.99 | 0.99 | 3.85 | 0.85 | 2.93 | -0.07 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 3.86 | 4.1 | 0.24 | 4.28 | 0.42 | 3.98 | 0.12 | 1.8 | 3.11 | 1.31 | 3.42 | 1.62 | 2.27 | 0.47 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 4.03 | 3.5 | -0.53 | 3.39 | -0.64 | 3.45 | -0.58 | 5.61 | 3.68 | -1.93 | 3.31 | -2.3 | 4.1 | -1.51 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 4.09 | 3.23 | -0.86 | 3.18 | -0.91 | 3.74 | -0.35 | 4.5 | 3.61 | -0.89 | 3.26 | -1.24 | 2.8 | -1.7 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 5.81 | 3.99 | -1.82 | 4.06 | -1.75 | 4.7 | -1.11 | 22.5 | 5.03 | -17.47 | 8.45 | -14.05 | 17.12 | -5.38 |
| Shelby Miller | ATL | 2.5 | 3.96 | 1.46 | 3.85 | 1.35 | 3.28 | 0.78 | 3.45 | 4.16 | 0.71 | 3.9 | 0.45 | 3.54 | 0.09 |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | 4.6 | 3.8 | -0.8 | 3.52 | -1.08 | 4.08 | -0.52 | 4.6 | 3.81 | -0.79 | 3.52 | -1.08 | 4.08 | -0.52 |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 3.32 | 3.4 | 0.08 | 3.15 | -0.17 | 2.93 | -0.39 | 2.79 | 3.58 | 0.79 | 3.23 | 0.44 | 3.43 | 0.64 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 3.13 | 3.93 | 0.8 | 4.05 | 0.92 | 4.36 | 1.23 | 4.09 | 4.04 | -0.05 | 4.34 | 0.25 | 5.09 | 1 |
| Yohan Flande | COL | 3.94 | 3.64 | -0.3 | 3.79 | -0.15 | 5.03 | 1.09 | 3.77 | 3.78 | 0.01 | 3.81 | 0.04 | 5.98 | 2.21 |
Chris Sale allowed seven runs in back to back starts a few weeks ago, which will mess with one’s ERA for a while, but has bounced back into form since then. His .317 BABIP for the season may seem a bit high for someone who allows such little hard contact, but such is the defense that plays behind him. Perhaps they’re too stunned to catch the ball when someone does make contact. A 28.6 K-BB% underlies the estimators nearly a run below his ERA.
David Price is stranding 79.8% of his runners with a 7.9 HR/FB, which is close enough to his career rate to not be concerned about, although he’s now in a power friendly park for at least a few months after spending most of his career in Tampa Bay.
Johnny Cueto – I’m not going to quibble with a .253 BABIP for him with a strong defense behind him. His LOB% is well below 80 for the first time in three seasons and right at his career rate. His 7.6 HR/FB is lower than normal and not earned in this park, but may be sustainable in it. I don’t expect his ERA to regress much from its current point.
Patrick Corbin is likely to see regression in his 16.2 HR/FB (three of his six HRs were in his 2nd start), but pitches in a tough park and does have an 11.9 career HR/FB so far. The BABIP is running a bit high as well, but he really has no factors or indicators in his favor. He should experience some regression though.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 0.283 | 0.315 | 0.032 | 7.4% | 90.0% |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 0.300 | 0.309 | 0.009 | 1.2% | 92.7% |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 0.281 | 0.284 | 0.003 | 8.7% | 83.8% |
| Chris Narveson | FLA | 0.294 | 0.154 | -0.14 | 6.3% | 84.4% |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 0.314 | 0.317 | 0.003 | 9.7% | 77.1% |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 0.292 | 0.253 | -0.039 | 11.8% | 90.6% |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 0.295 | 0.283 | -0.012 | 8.7% | 89.6% |
| David Holmberg | CIN | 0.285 | 0.278 | -0.007 | 6.3% | 90.8% |
| David Price | TOR | 0.282 | 0.289 | 0.007 | 11.6% | 82.4% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.308 | 0.348 | 0.04 | 2.1% | 87.1% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 0.286 | 0.256 | -0.03 | 10.8% | 86.2% |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 0.285 | 0.296 | 0.011 | 4.9% | 91.4% |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 0.304 | 0.312 | 0.008 | 6.5% | 86.4% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.317 | 0.294 | -0.023 | 11.1% | 88.9% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.303 | 0.278 | -0.025 | 11.0% | 87.2% |
| John Lackey | STL | 0.292 | 0.288 | -0.004 | 11.7% | 89.8% |
| Johnny Cueto | KAN | 0.280 | 0.253 | -0.027 | 9.9% | 86.3% |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.300 | 0.274 | -0.026 | 12.3% | 84.5% |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 0.295 | 0.308 | 0.013 | 9.8% | 89.6% |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 0.293 | 0.333 | 0.04 | 5.4% | 89.6% |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.308 | 0.332 | 0.024 | 4.7% | 86.3% |
| Shelby Miller | ATL | 0.304 | 0.271 | -0.033 | 8.3% | 87.2% |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | 0.299 | 0.333 | 0.034 | 16.7% | 88.4% |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 0.298 | 0.335 | 0.037 | 4.3% | 85.0% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 0.291 | 0.276 | -0.015 | 11.9% | 87.2% |
| Yohan Flande | COL | 0.316 | 0.252 | -0.064 | 3.0% | 89.1% |
Gio Gonzalez has all but forgone the IFFB this year, generating just two pop ups and while there’s been a significant increase in his ground ball rate this year, his contact authority rates are standard. As mentioned above though, if you’re going to turn strikeouts into ground balls, make sure you have an infield that can turn them into outs. One would guess this change was an effort to get him deeper into games on a more consistent basis, due to his walk rate. That hasn’t worked so well either.
Justin Verlander has great indicators and had been a low BABIP guy previous to the last two seasons.
Tyson Ross doesn’t generate a lot of pop ups (just three) but has an elite ground ball rate (62.5%) with a lot of weak contact (4.2 Hard-Soft%). His BABIP has been below .300 each of the last two seasons, so it’s probably a case of too many grounders finding holes. Shift more San Diego.
Yohan Flande is obviously going to see quite a bit of regression his BABIP, but also his 24.2 HR/FB (even in Colorado) that should even out in the ERA department.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever-evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Tyler Duffey – This is your high upside play tonight. He’s an unknown name with a 10.0 SwStr% through three starts. His minor league strikeout rates don’t follow a linear path, so it’s not clear whether we should expect this to continue or not, but at a very low price against a team that will strike out in a favorable park, it’s a great chance to take. There’s potential for a significant return if he repeats his last start or even the one before that where he walked five with seven strikeouts.
Value Tier Two
Yohan Flande is our dumpster diving play tonight. There’s little potential for a high floor here, but the Braves are a terrible offense, especially against LHP. They’re not likely to further hinder his strikeout rate with an average K% vs lefties. You need very little to get this to pay off.
Brett Anderson doesn’t give you a lot of upside either and doesn’t have the most favorable matchup, but keeps generating tons of weak ground balls at a reasonable or low cost and is a fine fallback option if necessary. He’s not the guy you’re looking to use, but you can if you have to.
Value Tier Three
Chris Sale (1) – Now we get to the top overall guys and the ones you’re looking to use in cash games. This is obviously the top guy, but the cost is enormous and the opposition not entirely favorable. He has a significant floor, though.
Patrick Corbin has been inconsistent and has allowed more hard contact than you’d like in an unfavorable park, but the Cardinals aren’t a strong team against LHP and he should generate an above average strikeout rate at a mid-range cost tonight.
Kyle Hendricks – When we used this logic for Jesse Chavez last night it didn’t work out so well, but marginal pitcher at a marginal cost in a great environment against a good, but injury laden offense. Logically, he should be able to generate some value here more often than not.
Chris Archer (2) – His numbers would really jump off the chart more if Chris Sale wasn’t stuffing them. He’s had a great year and has a great matchup tonight, but at a cost that nearly matches Sale.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Johnny Cueto (3) should bounce back and even add a few strikeouts against the Orioles. He’s usable, though maybe not enviable at a high price here.
Tyson Ross could have some upside against a mostly RH lineup, but his walk rate to LHBs (13.2%) is enough of a disaster that it could hurt the entire performance. I could see a creative manager (though maybe not Matt Williams) using someone like Clint Robinson in place of Jayson Werth tonight.
Gio Gonzalez is all over the place and I mean his price tag today in addition to his performance. He’s mid-range on DraftKings, but higher end on FanDuel.
David Price (4) – You’re probably going to get seven or eight innings of two to three-run ball with around a strikeout per inning. That’s essentially what you’re paying for, though. He has a high floor with a slightly lower ceiling than Archer and Sale.
Justin Verlander might have some excess value packed into a price tag that’s creeping back up again, but if he doesn’t maintain the gains he’s begun making again, it could be a more expensive speculation than you’d like.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.