Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, June 15th
We’ve got a loaded slate here on Friday. Let’s dig in and go through the huge number of pitching options.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | -4.9 | 4.85 | 5.7 | 50.4% | 1.04 | 5.07 | 4.69 | Nationals | 93 | 95 | 80 |
| Brandon McCarthy | Braves | 4.7 | 4.42 | 5.1 | 43.5% | 0.99 | 3.90 | 3.01 | Padres | 71 | 82 | 70 |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | 6.3 | 4.23 | 5.0 | 40.3% | 1.02 | 4.10 | 3.55 | Phillies | 76 | 86 | 86 |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 0.9 | 4.54 | 5.7 | 49.6% | 1.15 | 4.78 | 3.23 | Rangers | 95 | 85 | 91 |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | -2.5 | 4.58 | 5.2 | 41.0% | 0.98 | 4.54 | 4.16 | Reds | 98 | 92 | 111 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 4.8 | 3.54 | 5.9 | 51.5% | 1.04 | 3.89 | 4.92 | Royals | 87 | 84 | 31 |
| Chris Bassitt | Athletics | 3 | 3.60 | 7.0 | 33.3% | 0.96 | 3.85 | 3.60 | Angels | 115 | 111 | 105 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | -6.8 | 4.09 | 6.1 | 59.9% | 0.99 | 4.08 | 3.65 | Braves | 98 | 118 | 96 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 7.1 | 2.95 | 6.9 | 44.6% | 1.06 | 2.24 | 2.44 | Twins | 88 | 96 | 68 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | -6.3 | 5.17 | 5.1 | 38.2% | 0.90 | 5.47 | 3.74 | Dodgers | 101 | 101 | 157 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | -5.6 | 4.25 | 5.9 | 47.6% | 1.04 | 4.15 | 3.65 | Blue Jays | 101 | 88 | 125 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | -7.4 | 4.25 | 5.8 | 48.6% | 1.02 | 4.14 | 4.05 | Brewers | 89 | 98 | 106 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 3.6 | 4.18 | 6.0 | 39.9% | 1.04 | 4.23 | 3.33 | Astros | 125 | 111 | 168 |
| James Paxton | Mariners | -2.1 | 3.44 | 6.0 | 44.0% | 0.92 | 3.20 | 2.56 | Red Sox | 101 | 85 | 78 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 12.6 | 4.04 | 5.8 | 44.7% | 0.92 | 4.11 | 4.08 | Cardinals | 91 | 97 | 101 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | -3.7 | 4.72 | 5.5 | 45.8% | 0.99 | 4.74 | 3.70 | Orioles | 92 | 80 | 59 |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | -8.7 | 4.05 | 5.7 | 43.9% | 0.99 | 3.88 | 2.31 | Marlins | 79 | 80 | 78 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | -0.1 | 4.48 | 5.7 | 49.4% | 1.06 | 4.02 | 3.24 | Indians | 124 | 103 | 85 |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | -3.4 | 4.99 | 5.0 | 42.3% | 0.98 | 4.80 | 4.74 | Pirates | 111 | 99 | 94 |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 0.5 | 4.18 | 5.6 | 46.8% | 0.92 | 3.59 | 3.60 | Cubs | 103 | 102 | 42 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 3.4 | 4.39 | 5.4 | 41.7% | 0.98 | 4.71 | 3.35 | White Sox | 92 | 95 | 52 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Rays | -1.3 | 5.01 | 5.1 | 47.6% | 1.03 | 3.80 | 3.96 | Yankees | 119 | 115 | 83 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | -5 | 5.05 | 5.7 | 35.5% | 0.98 | 5.41 | 5.28 | Tigers | 83 | 86 | 66 |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 5.6 | 4.00 | 6.4 | 41.4% | 0.92 | 4.34 | 4.74 | Mariners | 107 | 106 | 135 |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | -2.3 | 3.31 | 5.1 | 49.6% | 0.90 | 3.05 | 2.44 | Giants | 90 | 104 | 100 |
| Seth Lugo | Mets | -3.1 | 4.11 | 5.5 | 43.3% | 1.00 | 4.14 | 2.14 | Diamondbacks | 92 | 80 | 153 |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 5.6 | 4.12 | 5.3 | 43.9% | 0.96 | 4.01 | 3.46 | Athletics | 82 | 89 | 87 |
| Yohander Mendez | Rangers | -1.1 | 5.65 | 33.9% | 1.15 | 5.80 | Rockies | 80 | 92 | 77 | ||
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 3.5 | 3.91 | 5.8 | 53.8% | 1.00 | 3.46 | 3.87 | Mets | 93 | 96 | 37 |
| Jonathan Loaisiga | Yankees | 4.8 | 1.03 | Rays | 97 | 103 | 92 |
Brandon McCarthy hasn’t been great in every game since abandoning his slider, dropping his four-seam usage and increasing his cutter and curve, but three of the five starts have been good. Most importantly tonight, he faces the Padres (71 wRC+, 21.3 K-BB% on the road, 82 wRC+, 25.6 K vs RHP), who made Anibal Sanchez look like a Cy Young candidate last night.
Brent Suter has not completed six innings in a start this year, but has completed five in 10 of 12. There may not look like a ton of upside here because he hasn’t exceeded six strikeouts in a game, but that’s mostly due to workload. He has a near league average strikeout rate for the season and a 27.4 K% over the last month that’s best on the board for any non-$10K DK pitcher with more than one start over that span. He also has the lowest aEV (83.7 mph) on the board by nearly a full mph. He has a very strong matchup with the Phillies (76 wRC+, 27.2 K% on the road, 86 wRC+, 23.1 K% vs LHP).
Corey Kluber has completed seven innings in 10 of 14 starts, has failed to pitch into the seventh just twice and has at least six innings in every start. His strikeouts have increased over the last month (at least seven in five straight starts), in which he has a SIERA at exactly two and that’s his highest estimator. Despite the positive run environment, he has a board topping .230 xwOBA at home since last season. The matchup is favorable. The Twins have some left-handed power and league average peripherals, but have been struggling (16.9 K-BB%, 6.9 HR/FB last week) and just haven’t really put it together offensively yet.
James Paxton struck out 10 Rays last time out. While strikeouts have been a bit hit or miss recently, it was his fifth time in double digits this year and the sixth time in eight starts he’s completed at least seven innings. His 31.4 K% and 13.2 SwStr% for the season both top the board, though when contact does come, it’s been louder than expected (89.1 mph aEV). His 40.5% 95+ mph EV is third worst on the board and why his xwOBA is just below .300 despite the strikeout rate above 30%. The matchup is interesting. It’s in a negative run environment against a great offense, but one that’s been poor against LHP (16.5 K-BB% with a split low 10.2 Hard-Soft%). They have two bats that absolutely destroy LHP, but really nobody else that’s above average. He also has a bit of a reverse split.
Jon Lester has gone seven innings with one run or less in three of his last four starts and hasn’t allowed a single run over his last two. In fact, he hasn’t allowed more than one run in five of his last six starts with a bump up in strikeout rate to 24.3% over the last month. He’s not as good as his ERA and even his xwOBA is .343, but it’s down to .312 over the last month. Most recently, he’s throwing more changeups. He’s three highest start usages are his last three starts, one against a predominantly left-handed Mets lineup. That pitch (11.4%) has a .253 xwOBA. The curve (13.4%) has a .226 xwOBA and 41.9 Whiff% (both actually worse than last year). He’s throwing a four-seamer and cutter which both exceed a .350 xwOBA 70% of the time and that could catch up with him sooner or later. He’s facing a predominantly (almost entirely) right-handed offense with an 18.3 HR/FB against southpaws, but it’s in a negative run environment, he has the best defense in baseball behind him and the Cardinals have just a 97 wRC+ with 23 K% vs LHP.
Jose Urena has all of his estimators below four for the season and month. He’s gone at least six innings in seven of nine starts and a strikeout rate not too far below league average. The 89.2 mph aEV is a bit high, but with a 50.8 GB% that’s held his Barrels/BBE to 6.2%. He does get a significant park downgrade tonight, but the overall run environment is neutral and the Orioles have been terrible against RHP (80 wRC+, 17.8 K-BB%).
Kevin Gausman has allowed 15 ERs over his last 14.2 innings, but just three in his last start (at Toronto) and struck out nine Yankees without a walk in the one preceding that. The HR ball (18.7 HR/FB) remains his bane. He’s allowed at least one in nine of 13 starts and has the worst 95+ mph EV on the board (42.7%), but his 15.5 SwStr% over the last month is best on the board. His 13 SwStr% for the season is second best. Luckily, the Marlins don’t have a lot of guys who hit the ball hard (16.5 K-BB%, 10.3 HR/FB vs RHP). They gain a DH tonight, but that just means another poor hitter.
Rick Porcello has at least pitched into the sixth inning in all but one start this year, failing to complete six innings in just three of 14 starts. Strikeouts are down over the last month, but the SwStr% has actually increased slightly. All seven of his HRs have come in his last nine starts, but it’s still a much more reasonable rate than last year. While nothing really blows you away, he’s a quality arm, who rarely gets to pitch in negative run environments, which really turns this into a neutral matchup. The Mariners don’t strike out much (20.4%), but he should get enough to be useful if he goes his normal six to seven innings. He’s one of just six pitchers with more than one starts, who has an xwOBA below .300.
Ross Stripling has not allowed more than two runs in a start since making his last relief appearance to start May. He’s gone at least 6.2 innings in three of his last four starts, though I don’t think anybody believes he’s going to sustain a strikeout rate above 30%. None the less, he’s certainly been a quality arm and possible savior to this staff. He’s been one of the top contact managers on the board. His .230 xwOBA is well below any other pitcher with more than one start (though some of that is built upon an unsustainable strikeout rate) with an 85.2 mph aEV that’s third best on the board and a 2.9 Barrels/BBE with just 23.9% 95+ mph EV that both lead the board. The Giants haven’t been terrible, but just lost another bat (Longoria) and have a 17.4 K-BB% vs RHP, while playing in the most negative run environment in play tonight.
Seth Lugo has not allowed a run in 10 innings as a starter this year. He most recently threw six shutout innings at the Yankees with eight strikeouts with a 13.1 SwStr%. By now, we know that it’s all about the curveball, which he throws more often than any other pitch (31.2%, .159 xwOBA, 82.7 mph aEV, -6 LA, 20.4 Whiff%) because the sinker he throws 26.9% of the time is not that good (.458 xwOBA, 89.9 mph aEV). With five pitches, he certainly has the arsenal to start, though I wouldn’t expect him to retain such a high strikeout rate and the velocity may drop a bit. All of that said, he has an 84.6 mph aEV that’s second best on the board and is now stretched out enough to succeed in a daily fantasy setting. The matchup is confusing. The park had playing very pitcher friendly and the Diamondbacks very friendly to RHPs (24.9 K%), but now, the ball is flying all over and out of the yard recently and the Diamondbacks are one of the hottest offenses in baseball (26.8 HR/FB last seven days).
Tyler Skaggs has gone at least six innings in four of his last six starts and is striking out more than a quarter of batters faced this year. He does have the highest aEV on the board (89.8 mph), but a favorable park and a league average launch angle (10.8) has allowed him to stay away from Barrels (7.5%/BBE) often enough to find some success this season. The A’s hit the ball hard (27.2 Hard-Soft% vs LHP) and that’s a concern, but really the only one. He transitions to a park that is still run and power negative against an offense with an 89 wRC+ and 15.5 K-BB% vs LHP.
Zack Godley has just a league average strikeout rate, down more than four points since last season. His sinker and cutter combine to make up more than 50% of his pitches and both have an xwOBA above .400 this year. He still gets ground balls 50.5% of the time, but that too, is well down from last season. His .366 xwOBA and 9.6% Barrels/BBE are both fourth worst on the board. The good news in a matchup against an offense with a 31 wRC+ and 32.1 K% over the last week, who could only score two runs against Matt Koch last night and even that must seem like a barrage for an offense that hasn’t really done anything in a month.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.288 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Mike Fiers (.290 – 79.4% – 13.7) soars up the board because he really hasn’t been that bad faces the White Sox (26.8 K% at home, 18.2 K-BB% vs RHP, 34.7 K%, -5.2 Hard-Soft% last seven days), but he has a board high 10.5% Barrels/BBE.
Michael Wacha (.240 – 78.5% – 8.5) nearly threw a no-hitter two starts back and that’s pushed his price tag beyond $9K. It was the only time he’s completed seven innings this year, though he had at least finished six innings in the four starts leading up to it. How one pulls off a .240 BABIP with a 29.2 LD% is something you might ask a magician. He’s not bad, just probably not as good as his ERA and too expensive in a tough spot against the Cubs, though they’ve gone cold (42 wRC+, 27.4 K%, 2.1 HR/FB last seven days) and at least it’s not Wrigley.
Gio Gonzalez (.296 – 81.3% – 7.9) has generated more than five strikeouts just once over the last month (of course it was against the Braves too). He generally keeps the ball in the park, but his HR rate is more than five points below the league average this year. He transitions to a positive run environment in an American League park against an offense that has not been very good against LHP by wRC+, but they have been fine by underlying numbers and have been heating up. While he doesn’t really struggle against RHBs, this is a predominantly right-handed lineup and he’s definitely better against lefties. It’s not terrible for around $9K, but it’s not ideal.
Jake Arrieta (.273 – 68.9% – 7.4) has allowed seven unearned runs (23.3% of total). It seems he would rather complain about shifts (he’s not wrong by the way) than miss bats. He just wants to throw his sinker and to his credit, he does generate a lot of weak ground balls and even has a .273 BABIP well below what his defense has allowed this season (.300), but we don’t really need a mid-priced ground ball pitcher in Milwaukee tonight.
Reynaldo Lopez (.238 – 74% – 6.5)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Clayton Richard has completed six innings or better in six of his last seven starts. He has a 15.0 K-BB% and 64.5 GB% over that span. Even RHBs have just a .262 wOBA, 15.3 K-BB% and 58.7 GB% against him over that span. While strikeouts are down over the last month, the length he’s giving the team still generally gives him enough to be useful and his swinging strike rate has remained league average. The problem is that the Braves have a split high 118 wRC+ vs LHP, along with an 18.3 K% (second best). I would still likely at least consider him for just $6.2K on DraftKings.
Charlie Morton has just a 9.0 SwStr% and .342 xwOBA over the last month. He walked six in his last start and allowed multiple HRs in each of the two preceding it. He takes on one of the coldest offenses in the league, but their 31 wRC+ over the last week still comes with just a 14.4 K%. They have no power (7.4 HR/FB at home, 8.2 HR/FB vs RHP), but just don’t strike out (18% at home, 17.7% vs RHP). Morton may still be a top five overall pitcher, but the cost is too high, especially on DraftKings ($12.1K).
Nathan Eovaldi threw six no-hit innings in his first start back from Tommy John surgery. He’s been less perfect in his last two starts, but did exceed 100 pitches last time out. He’s in a bottom three park adjusted matchup in Yankee Stadium tonight, though the Yankees do have a 26.6 K% over the last week.
Jonathan Loaisiga was most recently graded as the 12th best prospect in the Yankee system with a 45 Future Value Grade by Fangraphs. A recent Tommy John surgery graduate, he returned to post a 24.5 K-BB% in six rookie ball starts, followed by a 27.9 K-BB% in four low-A starts last year and then followed that up with a 31.2 K-BB% in four high-A starts and a 28.4 K-BB% in six more AA starts this year. The numbers are there, but he seems to be flying through the system and has not exceeded five innings in any minor league start this year. I’m definitely interesting, but a bit skeptical he’s ready for this spot. It’s not a terrible matchup, but even if he pitches well, he’s unlikely to go through the order more than twice.
Derek Holland is cheap and hasn’t been absolutely terrible. He’s also pitching in the most negative run environment in play, but against one of the hottest offenses in baseball (27.1 HR/FB last seven days).
Kyle Gibson has been a quality arm this season. If we’re going to jump right to it though, he has a bottom three park adjusted matchup in Cleveland tonight.
Chad Kuhl does have a nice strikeout rate, but also the highest xwOBA (.380) and Barrels/BBE (10.4%) on the board with a particular disdain for left-handed batters.
Chad Bettis is not at home, but he is in the most positive run environment in play in Texas. He has increased his strikeouts over the last month, but is still below league average. The Rangers (25.6 K% vs RHP) should push him over that mark, but have a 15.2 HR/FB at home.
Chris Bassit made a wonderful spot start against the Royals (7 IP – 3 H – 1 ER – 1 BB – 6 K – 26 BF) against an offense that usually does not strike out that much, but has a career 8.5 K-BB% in 150 innings and a rough spot against the Angels, who also don’t strike out that much, but have significantly more power.
Yohander Mendez was rated the fourth best prospect in the Texas system by Fangraphs this year (50 Future Value Grade) with “above average velocity and a difference making changeup”, but there were concerns even then and after a 7.5 K-BB% from the 23 year-old in 10 AAA starts, he was downgraded just this week to a 45 FV grade due to declining “stuff”. Yet, here he is, making his first career start for the Rangers in the most positive environment in play against a Colorado offense that’s better against LHP (16.6 HR/FB). It may not be Coors, but it may be close enough.
Jakob Junis has the absolute worst park adjusted matchup on the board.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 17.2% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 10.9% | Season | 17.8% | 12.9% | 11.4% | 11.8% | Home | 18.6% | 13.6% | 18.8% | 7.0% | L14Days | 23.5% | 13.7% | 8.3% | 15.6% |
| Brandon McCarthy | Braves | L2 Yrs | 20.2% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 11.0% | Season | 19.0% | 6.8% | 21.1% | 16.5% | Home | 20.4% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 15.9% | L14Days | 26.8% | 2.4% | 33.3% | 31.0% |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 19.1% | 5.8% | 13.0% | 10.0% | Season | 20.3% | 5.2% | 16.0% | 15.3% | Home | 20.8% | 6.3% | 16.5% | 14.5% | L14Days | 27.5% | 7.5% | 10.0% | -3.8% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 16.7% | 7.4% | 13.8% | 12.0% | Season | 16.8% | 7.6% | 15.8% | 16.1% | Road | 15.8% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 16.7% | L14Days | 26.7% | 4.4% | 41.7% | 20.7% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 20.4% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 18.0% | Season | 22.2% | 8.7% | 15.2% | 20.8% | Home | 21.5% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 16.7% | L14Days | 22.0% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 27.3% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Yrs | 27.7% | 8.5% | 15.1% | 7.8% | Season | 30.2% | 9.1% | 20.4% | 14.0% | Road | 26.0% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 11.2% | L14Days | 22.5% | 14.3% | 20.0% | 42.4% |
| Chris Bassitt | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 23.1% | 3.9% | 50.0% | Season | 23.1% | 3.9% | 50.0% | Home | 23.1% | 3.9% | 50.0% | L14Days | 23.1% | 3.9% | 50.0% | ||||
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Yrs | 17.4% | 7.8% | 17.5% | 16.6% | Season | 19.4% | 8.2% | 17.0% | 19.8% | Road | 16.7% | 8.3% | 25.0% | 18.0% | L14Days | 17.5% | 8.8% | 32.5% | |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Yrs | 30.6% | 5.1% | 13.5% | 9.7% | Season | 27.5% | 2.7% | 15.6% | 21.8% | Home | 34.7% | 4.1% | 9.7% | 6.4% | L14Days | 26.8% | 9.1% | 34.1% | |
| Derek Holland | Giants | L2 Yrs | 17.5% | 10.7% | 15.1% | 20.6% | Season | 20.1% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 20.7% | Road | 16.5% | 10.4% | 17.5% | 20.8% | L14Days | 25.7% | 8.6% | 21.8% | |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 22.6% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 11.2% | Season | 23.6% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 13.7% | Road | 22.4% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 10.4% | L14Days | 26.1% | 8.7% | 25.0% | 26.7% |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 21.6% | 8.7% | 12.9% | 6.7% | Season | 17.1% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 2.9% | Road | 20.9% | 8.0% | 15.7% | 10.2% | L14Days | 16.7% | 6.3% | 25.0% | -14.7% |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | L2 Yrs | 20.6% | 5.8% | 13.6% | 20.2% | Season | 22.6% | 5.6% | 15.2% | 20.7% | Home | 22.2% | 6.4% | 15.0% | 21.7% | L14Days | 25.0% | 3.6% | 17.6% | 35.9% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 26.8% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 15.3% | Season | 31.4% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 15.8% | Home | 30.5% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 9.6% | L14Days | 28.6% | 1.8% | 9.1% | 28.2% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 23.2% | 7.9% | 13.9% | 9.8% | Season | 21.2% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 19.2% | Road | 22.3% | 8.6% | 15.3% | 12.6% | L14Days | 23.5% | 9.8% | 18.2% | |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 16.9% | 7.6% | 13.1% | 17.8% | Season | 19.8% | 5.4% | 12.3% | 29.2% | Road | 18.1% | 8.5% | 15.2% | 19.5% | L14Days | 17.4% | 2.2% | 11.1% | 48.7% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 22.6% | 7.3% | 15.6% | 15.1% | Season | 22.2% | 5.1% | 18.7% | 15.0% | Home | 24.4% | 8.2% | 19.0% | 16.5% | L14Days | 28.9% | 30.0% | 2.7% | |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Yrs | 18.9% | 8.7% | 16.1% | 18.4% | Season | 24.9% | 10.2% | 12.9% | 19.4% | Road | 21.4% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 18.1% | L14Days | 25.5% | 8.5% | 37.5% | 35.5% |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | L2 Yrs | 16.3% | 8.9% | 17.9% | 14.0% | Season | 17.5% | 6.8% | 19.1% | 25.9% | Road | 15.5% | 8.6% | 18.2% | 15.4% | L14Days | 17.0% | 8.5% | 23.1% | 23.5% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 21.3% | 7.9% | 11.9% | 13.1% | Season | 21.5% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 27.2% | Home | 23.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 11.9% | L14Days | 27.5% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 46.9% |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 20.4% | 7.7% | 16.2% | 15.0% | Season | 17.4% | 4.9% | 13.7% | 19.5% | Road | 20.9% | 8.7% | 21.3% | 11.0% | L14Days | 26.9% | 5.8% | 13.3% | 32.4% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Rays | L2 Yrs | 14.8% | 8.8% | 21.1% | 17.3% | Season | 19.0% | 3.5% | 17.6% | 6.7% | Road | 20.0% | 5.0% | 9.1% | -6.7% | L14Days | 18.0% | 2.6% | 25.0% | 3.2% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 17.2% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | Season | 16.7% | 10.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | Home | 16.3% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 3.0% | L14Days | 18.9% | 13.2% | 11.4% | |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 21.0% | 4.6% | 11.2% | 15.8% | Season | 21.9% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 5.8% | Road | 19.9% | 5.9% | 13.8% | 20.5% | L14Days | 17.5% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 24.3% | 5.5% | 13.5% | 6.2% | Season | 30.1% | 4.6% | 9.4% | 1.3% | Home | 27.2% | 5.1% | 9.4% | 2.5% | L14Days | 30.2% | 16.7% | 3.3% | |
| Seth Lugo | Mets | L2 Yrs | 20.3% | 6.3% | 10.7% | 14.6% | Season | 27.0% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 0.9% | Road | 20.5% | 6.8% | 12.3% | 15.0% | L14Days | 29.6% | -12.9% | ||
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | L2 Yrs | 23.0% | 8.3% | 12.3% | 16.0% | Season | 25.6% | 7.5% | 11.3% | 24.9% | Road | 24.4% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 12.1% | L14Days | 28.0% | 8.0% | 9.4% | |
| Yohander Mendez | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 9.7% | 6.9% | 10.7% | 15.2% | Season | -33.3% | Home | 12.8% | 4.3% | 16.7% | 15.8% | L14Days | |||||||
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 23.3% | 8.8% | 16.7% | 13.4% | Season | 21.9% | 11.0% | 16.9% | 11.9% | Home | 25.4% | 7.8% | 16.5% | 17.2% | L14Days | 25.6% | 9.3% | 20.0% | 12.0% |
| Jonathan Loaisiga | Yankees | L2 Yrs | Season | Home | L14Days |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | Road | 20.7% | 9.2% | 14.9% | 16.2% | RH | 20.5% | 9.7% | 14.9% | 13.5% | L7Days | 18.4% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 11.0% |
| Padres | Road | 26.9% | 5.6% | 11.3% | 12.9% | RH | 25.6% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 15.1% | L7Days | 24.2% | 4.4% | 7.7% | 20.5% |
| Phillies | Road | 27.2% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 8.2% | LH | 23.1% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 10.2% | L7Days | 25.1% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 0.7% |
| Rangers | Home | 25.1% | 10.6% | 15.2% | 24.4% | RH | 25.6% | 9.3% | 13.6% | 20.7% | L7Days | 21.7% | 11.8% | 4.8% | 21.1% |
| Reds | Road | 18.9% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 18.7% | RH | 20.9% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 18.7% | L7Days | 17.3% | 13.9% | 7.4% | 29.0% |
| Royals | Home | 18.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 25.5% | RH | 17.7% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 24.0% | L7Days | 14.4% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 35.2% |
| Angels | Road | 19.0% | 8.7% | 13.8% | 19.2% | RH | 20.2% | 8.5% | 13.6% | 20.9% | L7Days | 23.1% | 8.3% | 18.6% | 26.0% |
| Braves | Home | 19.0% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 21.5% | LH | 18.3% | 7.7% | 14.8% | 21.0% | L7Days | 19.7% | 3.8% | 12.5% | 16.5% |
| Twins | Road | 22.9% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 18.3% | RH | 21.9% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 22.5% | L7Days | 24.4% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 16.0% |
| Dodgers | Home | 23.5% | 8.8% | 13.4% | 13.6% | LH | 22.3% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 17.0% | L7Days | 25.8% | 11.6% | 27.1% | 22.7% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 23.4% | 8.8% | 14.6% | 15.1% | LH | 22.0% | 8.7% | 12.7% | 15.8% | L7Days | 18.8% | 7.4% | 15.3% | 9.6% |
| Brewers | Home | 25.3% | 9.7% | 15.1% | 24.0% | RH | 24.8% | 8.3% | 15.9% | 16.7% | L7Days | 24.7% | 6.5% | 23.1% | 9.8% |
| Astros | Road | 20.0% | 9.0% | 12.3% | 21.0% | RH | 21.3% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 16.6% | L7Days | 13.0% | 10.6% | 17.1% | 25.6% |
| Red Sox | Road | 22.1% | 8.1% | 14.8% | 18.6% | LH | 24.4% | 7.9% | 12.0% | 10.2% | L7Days | 23.6% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 11.5% |
| Cardinals | Home | 20.6% | 7.8% | 11.9% | 23.1% | LH | 23.0% | 10.3% | 18.3% | 20.6% | L7Days | 22.4% | 6.3% | 17.5% | 32.0% |
| Orioles | Home | 22.1% | 8.2% | 13.0% | 10.7% | RH | 25.2% | 7.4% | 12.0% | 11.8% | L7Days | 22.4% | 11.8% | 5.1% | -4.4% |
| Marlins | Road | 24.3% | 7.6% | 11.6% | 14.6% | RH | 23.5% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 16.1% | L7Days | 20.3% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 25.5% |
| Indians | Home | 20.1% | 8.7% | 15.8% | 29.6% | RH | 22.2% | 8.1% | 14.7% | 23.5% | L7Days | 19.7% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 14.6% |
| Pirates | Home | 17.8% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 5.0% | RH | 19.3% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 10.5% | L7Days | 19.4% | 10.1% | 6.4% | 18.0% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.4% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 15.1% | RH | 21.3% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 11.9% | L7Days | 27.4% | 8.8% | 2.1% | 11.9% |
| White Sox | Home | 26.8% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 6.9% | RH | 25.1% | 6.9% | 11.8% | 12.0% | L7Days | 34.7% | 7.4% | 6.4% | -5.2% |
| Yankees | Home | 23.2% | 12.0% | 17.5% | 20.4% | RH | 23.5% | 9.7% | 17.1% | 18.4% | L7Days | 26.6% | 8.4% | 21.6% | 21.9% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.7% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 14.3% | RH | 21.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 20.3% | L7Days | 26.3% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 25.6% |
| Mariners | Home | 22.2% | 6.2% | 13.4% | 10.1% | RH | 20.4% | 7.0% | 14.9% | 17.2% | L7Days | 20.2% | 6.3% | 20.3% | 18.8% |
| Giants | Road | 24.8% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 18.1% | RH | 24.7% | 7.3% | 11.5% | 20.0% | L7Days | 20.5% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 18.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 24.0% | 10.2% | 13.4% | 24.5% | RH | 24.9% | 10.0% | 13.0% | 18.5% | L7Days | 22.6% | 10.8% | 26.8% | 35.0% |
| Athletics | Home | 23.9% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 26.1% | LH | 23.9% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 27.2% | L7Days | 26.8% | 6.6% | 15.0% | 19.6% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.9% | 8.6% | 13.7% | 13.2% | LH | 22.9% | 8.5% | 16.6% | 16.5% | L7Days | 25.2% | 5.4% | 14.0% | 19.7% |
| Mets | Road | 22.2% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 21.1% | RH | 21.7% | 8.8% | 12.0% | 17.9% | L7Days | 32.1% | 6.6% | 12.7% | 24.8% |
| Rays | Road | 23.3% | 7.4% | 12.5% | 15.7% | RH | 21.9% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 16.9% | L7Days | 23.7% | 6.8% | 11.5% | 22.0% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.7 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.15 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 17.8% | 10.0% | 1.78 | 21.7% | 10.3% | 2.11 |
| Brandon McCarthy | Braves | 19.0% | 6.9% | 2.75 | 23.0% | 8.2% | 2.80 |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | 20.3% | 9.4% | 2.16 | 27.4% | 12.8% | 2.14 |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 16.8% | 9.3% | 1.81 | 19.5% | 10.9% | 1.79 |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | 22.2% | 9.4% | 2.36 | 22.7% | 9.8% | 2.32 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 30.2% | 11.9% | 2.54 | 27.0% | 9.0% | 3.00 |
| Chris Bassitt | Athletics | 23.1% | 8.6% | 2.69 | 23.1% | 8.6% | 2.69 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 19.4% | 10.1% | 1.92 | 15.4% | 10.0% | 1.54 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 27.5% | 10.7% | 2.57 | 32.6% | 11.1% | 2.94 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 20.1% | 8.7% | 2.31 | 16.7% | 10.0% | 1.67 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 23.6% | 10.0% | 2.36 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 2.06 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 17.1% | 6.8% | 2.51 | 18.0% | 7.6% | 2.37 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 22.6% | 10.1% | 2.24 | 23.9% | 11.1% | 2.15 |
| James Paxton | Mariners | 31.4% | 13.2% | 2.38 | 30.3% | 11.5% | 2.63 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 21.2% | 9.9% | 2.14 | 24.2% | 10.3% | 2.35 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 19.8% | 9.2% | 2.15 | 20.0% | 9.2% | 2.17 |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 22.2% | 13.0% | 1.71 | 26.5% | 15.5% | 1.71 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 24.9% | 11.6% | 2.15 | 22.6% | 10.4% | 2.17 |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | 17.5% | 7.9% | 2.22 | 19.0% | 8.2% | 2.32 |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 21.5% | 10.0% | 2.15 | 24.6% | 10.6% | 2.32 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 17.4% | 8.6% | 2.02 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 2.25 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Rays | 19.0% | 7.4% | 2.57 | 19.0% | 7.4% | 2.57 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 16.7% | 9.1% | 1.84 | 16.3% | 8.7% | 1.87 |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 21.9% | 9.2% | 2.38 | 19.4% | 9.6% | 2.02 |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | 30.1% | 10.6% | 2.84 | 35.0% | 11.9% | 2.94 |
| Seth Lugo | Mets | 27.0% | 10.5% | 2.57 | 30.1% | 9.1% | 3.31 |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 25.6% | 10.9% | 2.35 | 26.5% | 11.7% | 2.26 |
| Yohander Mendez | Rangers | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||
| Jonathan Loaisiga | Yankees | ||||||
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 21.9% | 11.2% | 1.96 | 22.5% | 12.4% | 1.81 |
Brandon McCarthy can’t support his season or monthly strikeout rates, but his monthly SwStr% does support his season strikeout rate at least.
Kevin Gausman is the only pitcher on the board flying under his SwStr%. He’s never been above an 11 SwStr% in his career. So, more than two points above his previous career high and his strikeout rate is within 0.03 points of his career rate. Maybe the SwStr% decreases, but there does appear to be upside here.
Ross Stripling can certainly support an above average strikeout rate, just not this one. Interesting that he had just a 5.2 SwStr% last time out against Atlanta, snapping a streak of three straight starts above 14%, though two of those were against the Phillies and Padres. This story is still being written.
Seth Lugo probably has upside around the 25 K% mark.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.18 ERA – 4.16 SIERA – 4.12 xFIP – 4.22 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 4.33 | 5.10 | 0.77 | 4.33 | 0.71 | 4.91 | 0.58 | 7.05 | 2.72 | 4.78 | 4.96 | 0.18 | 4.84 | 0.06 | 5.03 | 0.25 |
| Brandon McCarthy | Braves | 5.03 | 4.04 | -0.99 | 5.03 | -1.34 | 4.62 | -0.41 | 4.08 | -0.95 | 4.23 | 3.51 | -0.72 | 3.45 | -0.78 | 4.11 | -0.12 |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | 4.61 | 4.00 | -0.61 | 4.61 | -0.72 | 4.40 | -0.21 | 5.08 | 0.47 | 3.76 | 3.28 | -0.48 | 3.23 | -0.53 | 4.04 | 0.28 |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 4.40 | 4.56 | 0.16 | 4.40 | -0.01 | 4.83 | 0.43 | 4.23 | -0.17 | 6.75 | 4.04 | -2.71 | 4.14 | -2.61 | 5.80 | -0.95 |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | 3.95 | 4.20 | 0.25 | 3.95 | 0.28 | 4.62 | 0.67 | 4.37 | 0.42 | 3.58 | 4.22 | 0.64 | 4.31 | 0.73 | 3.96 | 0.38 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 2.82 | 3.23 | 0.41 | 2.82 | 0.36 | 3.90 | 1.08 | 2.73 | -0.09 | 4.18 | 3.73 | -0.45 | 4.05 | -0.13 | 4.81 | 0.63 |
| Chris Bassitt | Athletics | 1.29 | 3.60 | 2.31 | 1.29 | 2.56 | 2.24 | 0.95 | 3.50 | 2.21 | 1.29 | 3.60 | 2.31 | 3.85 | 2.56 | 2.24 | 0.95 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 4.40 | 3.88 | -0.52 | 4.40 | -0.79 | 3.97 | -0.43 | 5.03 | 0.63 | 3.15 | 3.84 | 0.69 | 3.81 | 0.66 | 4.06 | 0.91 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 1.99 | 2.77 | 0.78 | 1.99 | 0.62 | 2.92 | 0.93 | 2.40 | 0.41 | 1.31 | 2.00 | 0.69 | 1.82 | 0.51 | 1.49 | 0.18 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 4.54 | 4.56 | 0.02 | 4.54 | 0.05 | 4.39 | -0.15 | 5.47 | 0.93 | 4.15 | 4.60 | 0.45 | 4.3 | 0.15 | 3.75 | -0.40 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 2.65 | 4.01 | 1.36 | 2.65 | 1.09 | 3.24 | 0.59 | 3.33 | 0.68 | 3.30 | 4.48 | 1.18 | 4.13 | 0.83 | 4.46 | 1.16 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 2.97 | 4.23 | 1.26 | 2.97 | 1.03 | 3.50 | 0.53 | 4.62 | 1.65 | 3.54 | 3.97 | 0.43 | 3.76 | 0.22 | 3.60 | 0.06 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 4.05 | 3.81 | -0.24 | 4.05 | 0.05 | 4.53 | 0.48 | 4.94 | 0.89 | 4.97 | 3.67 | -1.30 | 3.83 | -1.14 | 3.78 | -1.19 |
| James Paxton | Mariners | 3.02 | 3.00 | -0.02 | 3.02 | 0.11 | 2.79 | -0.23 | 2.80 | -0.22 | 2.27 | 2.80 | 0.53 | 2.81 | 0.54 | 2.45 | 0.18 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 2.22 | 4.31 | 2.09 | 2.22 | 2.11 | 3.98 | 1.76 | 3.42 | 1.20 | 1.64 | 3.61 | 1.97 | 3.71 | 2.07 | 3.28 | 1.64 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 4.59 | 3.84 | -0.75 | 4.59 | -0.74 | 3.84 | -0.75 | 3.88 | -0.71 | 4.97 | 3.68 | -1.29 | 3.36 | -1.61 | 3.92 | -1.05 |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 4.58 | 3.61 | -0.97 | 4.58 | -1.05 | 4.32 | -0.26 | 3.11 | -1.47 | 7.36 | 2.93 | -4.43 | 2.74 | -4.62 | 4.46 | -2.90 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 3.45 | 3.93 | 0.48 | 3.45 | 0.26 | 3.76 | 0.31 | 3.46 | 0.01 | 3.48 | 3.81 | 0.33 | 3.56 | 0.08 | 4.77 | 1.29 |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | 5.97 | 4.46 | -1.51 | 5.97 | -1.50 | 5.50 | -0.47 | 4.77 | -1.20 | 5.81 | 4.34 | -1.47 | 4.48 | -1.33 | 5.91 | 0.10 |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 2.47 | 4.26 | 1.79 | 2.47 | 1.33 | 3.41 | 0.94 | 3.83 | 1.36 | 1.64 | 3.79 | 2.15 | 3.34 | 1.70 | 3.00 | 1.36 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 4.01 | 4.39 | 0.38 | 4.01 | 0.64 | 4.88 | 0.87 | 4.58 | 0.57 | 3.72 | 4.34 | 0.62 | 4.59 | 0.87 | 4.72 | 1.00 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Rays | 3.94 | 3.90 | -0.04 | 3.94 | -0.13 | 4.53 | 0.59 | 2.68 | -1.26 | 3.94 | 3.90 | -0.04 | 3.81 | -0.13 | 4.53 | 0.59 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 3.26 | 5.20 | 1.94 | 3.26 | 2.19 | 4.39 | 1.13 | 6.07 | 2.81 | 4.36 | 5.16 | 0.80 | 5.44 | 1.08 | 3.73 | -0.63 |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 3.54 | 3.71 | 0.17 | 3.54 | 0.26 | 3.30 | -0.24 | 3.94 | 0.40 | 4.08 | 4.45 | 0.37 | 4.8 | 0.72 | 4.53 | 0.45 |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | 1.65 | 2.69 | 1.04 | 1.65 | 1.02 | 2.33 | 0.68 | 1.93 | 0.28 | 1.15 | 1.99 | 0.84 | 1.86 | 0.71 | 1.91 | 0.76 |
| Seth Lugo | Mets | 1.77 | 2.87 | 1.10 | 1.77 | 1.33 | 2.61 | 0.84 | 4.49 | 2.72 | 1.16 | 2.20 | 1.04 | 2.19 | 1.03 | 1.64 | 0.48 |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 3.08 | 3.58 | 0.50 | 3.08 | 0.52 | 3.45 | 0.37 | 3.58 | 0.50 | 3.10 | 3.66 | 0.56 | 3.91 | 0.81 | 3.92 | 0.82 |
| Yohander Mendez | Rangers | 0.00 | 7.26 | 7.26 | 0.00 | 7.95 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 5.71 | 5.71 | |||||||
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 4.97 | 4.31 | -0.66 | 4.97 | -0.85 | 4.61 | -0.36 | 4.59 | -0.38 | 6.66 | 4.67 | -1.99 | 4.87 | -1.79 | 5.48 | -1.18 |
| Jonathan Loaisiga | Yankees |
Brandon McCarthy has a .333 BABIP and 21.1 HR/FB. The overall contact or Barrels aren’t that loud, but the line drive rate is high.
Brent Suter has a 16 HR/FB, which is why his ERA is in line with his FIP.
Corey Kluber has a .245 BABIP and 89.3 LOB%.
Jon Lester has a .238 BABIP and 84.8 LOB%. He’s also allowed four unearned runs (17.4%).
Jose Urena doesn’t really have any numbers that would suggest a gap in his ERA and estimators. The 68.2% strand rate is a bit low, but not too bad. Over the last month, it’s down to 64.6%.
Ross Stripling has 91.1 LOB%. I’d even push his estimators up near three (which still makes him an All-Star) anticipating a strikeout rate decrease.
Seth Lugo has a .239 BABIP, 87 LOB% and 7.9 HR/FB. Even if you push up his estimators nearly a run with a move to the rotation, it’s still a quality arm.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.1 LD% – 10.3 IFFB% – 86.3 Z-Contact% – 36.5 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 0.303 | 0.278 | -0.025 | 50.7% | 17.4% | 10.0% | 83.9% | 37.2% |
| Brandon McCarthy | Braves | 0.279 | 0.333 | 0.054 | 49.3% | 24.2% | 1.8% | 90.7% | 38.4% |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | 0.267 | 0.286 | 0.019 | 33.3% | 29.9% | 14.7% | 87.7% | 34.4% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 0.308 | 0.269 | -0.039 | 46.1% | 20.9% | 6.6% | 87.1% | 36.9% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | 0.298 | 0.302 | 0.004 | 35.3% | 26.0% | 7.6% | 85.3% | 41.8% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 0.272 | 0.264 | -0.008 | 50.8% | 19.7% | 13.0% | 81.5% | 33.1% |
| Chris Bassitt | Athletics | 0.274 | 0.167 | -0.107 | 33.3% | 27.8% | 0.0% | 90.9% | 17.9% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 0.303 | 0.281 | -0.022 | 58.6% | 20.7% | 5.7% | 86.8% | 37.8% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 0.285 | 0.245 | -0.040 | 48.8% | 21.3% | 11.7% | 89.8% | 30.9% |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 0.298 | 0.270 | -0.028 | 38.1% | 20.1% | 13.6% | 87.7% | 44.3% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 0.277 | 0.296 | 0.019 | 51.0% | 19.0% | 7.9% | 84.4% | 33.3% |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 0.300 | 0.273 | -0.027 | 56.6% | 17.1% | 13.0% | 90.4% | 30.9% |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 0.307 | 0.275 | -0.032 | 39.6% | 18.3% | 11.1% | 89.2% | 29.8% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | 0.295 | 0.271 | -0.024 | 36.9% | 20.6% | 12.1% | 82.8% | 35.6% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 0.260 | 0.238 | -0.022 | 38.5% | 22.6% | 7.4% | 85.2% | 38.9% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 0.290 | 0.303 | 0.013 | 50.8% | 18.8% | 12.3% | 86.5% | 37.9% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 0.326 | 0.338 | 0.012 | 47.5% | 20.8% | 13.3% | 82.6% | 34.6% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 0.295 | 0.259 | -0.036 | 49.5% | 19.2% | 16.1% | 87.7% | 34.1% |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | 0.297 | 0.284 | -0.013 | 40.8% | 22.3% | 11.8% | 87.7% | 45.2% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 0.286 | 0.240 | -0.046 | 42.6% | 29.2% | 8.5% | 84.0% | 39.9% |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 0.282 | 0.290 | 0.008 | 38.9% | 17.1% | 10.5% | 88.3% | 35.1% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Rays | 0.271 | 0.119 | -0.152 | 47.7% | 13.6% | 11.8% | 89.7% | 38.6% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 0.290 | 0.238 | -0.052 | 35.8% | 17.5% | 15.0% | 86.3% | 48.3% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 0.289 | 0.289 | 0.000 | 47.4% | 19.8% | 9.6% | 89.1% | 35.5% |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | 0.297 | 0.311 | 0.014 | 47.1% | 18.3% | 20.8% | 87.0% | 33.4% |
| Seth Lugo | Mets | 0.306 | 0.239 | -0.067 | 46.9% | 19.5% | 7.9% | 88.1% | 27.0% |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 0.297 | 0.306 | 0.009 | 47.2% | 17.1% | 7.0% | 81.9% | 31.5% |
| Yohander Mendez | Rangers | 0.303 | 0.333 | 0.030 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 100.0% | 66.7% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 0.276 | 0.320 | 0.044 | 50.5% | 20.9% | 20.3% | 89.5% | 33.5% |
| Jonathan Loaisiga | Yankees | 0.274 |
Brandon McCarthy has a high line drive rate and one pop-up all season. He doesn’t miss many bats in the zone.
Corey Kluber has a great Z-O-Swing% and an otherwise fine BABIP and Statcast profile, but nothing that really supports a very low BABIP. He’s been below .275 each of the last two seasons, but never below .267. However, his BABIP has declined every single year in the majors.
Jon Lester has a great defense with a reasonable BABIP profile. You wouldn’t expect it to remain this low, but the Cubs as a team ran a .250 BABIP two years ago.
Kevin Gausman has a .338 BABIP and 18.7 HR/FB. He allows a lot of hard hit balls, more than anybody on the board, but his defense is terrible too (.326 BABIP).
Seth Lugo get a lot of swings at curveballs out of the zone, but that alone doesn’t support a .239 BABIP.
Zack Godley has a BABIP nearly 50 points above his team’s allowed. He has a high ground ball rate and high rate of Barrels/BBE, which makes it odd that his BABIP would be very high too with the rest of his profile being average, even with quite a few popups.
StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .315 wOBA)
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 0.374 | -0.047 | 0.391 | -0.019 | 0.392 | -0.069 | -0.100 | 89.9 | 8.6 | 41.400 | 220 |
| Brandon McCarthy | Braves | 0.338 | 0.017 | 0.298 | 0.003 | 0.330 | 0.014 | -1.100 | 88.3 | 6.8 | 34.700 | 219 |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | 0.333 | -0.011 | 0.326 | 0.001 | 0.324 | -0.011 | 1.000 | 83.7 | 8.4 | 27.000 | 215 |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 0.345 | -0.020 | 0.338 | -0.030 | 0.339 | 0.053 | -0.500 | 88.1 | 7.2 | 39.600 | 235 |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | 0.380 | -0.045 | 0.340 | -0.010 | 0.367 | -0.033 | -0.500 | 89 | 10.4 | 38.400 | 211 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 0.299 | -0.008 | 0.313 | -0.006 | 0.342 | -0.015 | -0.900 | 87.9 | 8.1 | 33.000 | 185 |
| Chris Bassitt | Athletics | 0.326 | -0.156 | 0.326 | -0.156 | 0.326 | -0.156 | -0.200 | ||||
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 0.331 | -0.026 | 0.345 | 0.019 | 0.310 | -0.068 | -2.000 | 89.5 | 4.9 | 38.100 | 244 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 0.282 | -0.046 | 0.230 | -0.011 | 0.259 | -0.026 | -0.400 | 87.6 | 7.1 | 32.500 | 240 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 0.352 | -0.034 | 0.389 | -0.005 | 0.334 | -0.030 | -0.800 | 88.8 | 8.6 | 38.700 | 186 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 0.304 | -0.016 | 0.285 | -0.012 | 0.329 | -0.034 | -1.000 | 87.3 | 4.7 | 32.700 | 211 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 0.294 | -0.013 | 0.325 | 0.000 | 0.313 | -0.009 | -0.700 | 86.7 | 3.4 | 31.900 | 207 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 0.329 | -0.015 | 0.342 | -0.020 | 0.304 | 0.034 | -0.800 | 88.8 | 10.1 | 35.000 | 237 |
| James Paxton | Mariners | 0.296 | -0.035 | 0.267 | -0.006 | 0.279 | -0.035 | -0.400 | 89.1 | 8.5 | 40.500 | 200 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 0.343 | -0.066 | 0.328 | -0.011 | 0.312 | -0.078 | -0.300 | 88.6 | 7.0 | 37.900 | 214 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 0.340 | -0.030 | 0.358 | -0.060 | 0.350 | -0.044 | -0.600 | 89.2 | 6.2 | 39.600 | 225 |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 0.344 | 0.002 | 0.352 | -0.009 | 0.362 | 0.040 | -0.600 | 89.7 | 8.8 | 42.700 | 239 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 0.321 | -0.037 | 0.321 | -0.023 | 0.321 | -0.023 | 0.600 | 87.9 | 6.5 | 37.300 | 201 |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | 0.372 | -0.016 | 0.362 | 0.033 | 0.346 | -0.011 | -0.800 | 89.3 | 8.5 | 39.200 | 189 |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 0.346 | -0.091 | 0.313 | -0.032 | 0.305 | -0.111 | 0.600 | 87.6 | 7.0 | 36.600 | 213 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 0.347 | -0.008 | 0.337 | 0.029 | 0.348 | -0.007 | -0.800 | 88.8 | 10.5 | 37.300 | 220 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Rays | 0.301 | -0.083 | 0.244 | -0.075 | 0.301 | -0.083 | -1.000 | 87.8 | 6.7 | 30.000 | 30 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 0.347 | -0.054 | 0.344 | -0.087 | 0.317 | -0.007 | -0.400 | 87.9 | 6.6 | 30.700 | 212 |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 0.297 | -0.011 | 0.330 | -0.013 | 0.326 | 0.018 | -0.600 | 87.7 | 4.6 | 30.800 | 237 |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | 0.230 | 0.027 | 0.237 | 0.024 | 0.201 | 0.020 | -0.700 | 85.2 | 2.9 | 23.900 | 138 |
| Seth Lugo | Mets | 0.264 | -0.043 | 0.346 | -0.004 | 0.219 | -0.045 | -0.800 | 84.6 | 7.7 | 31.700 | 104 |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 0.307 | -0.011 | 0.302 | 0.005 | 0.317 | 0.013 | -0.500 | 89.8 | 7.5 | 38.300 | 201 |
| Yohander Mendez | Rangers | 0.038 | 0.255 | 0.394 | -0.006 | 0.038 | 0.255 | -0.500 | ||||
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 0.366 | -0.025 | 0.312 | -0.029 | 0.384 | -0.007 | -1.200 | 88.7 | 9.6 | 38.100 | 197 |
| Jonathan Loaisiga | Yankees |
Brent Suter has somehow combined a lot of Barrels (8.4%/BBE) with the lowest exit velocity on the board. He also has the highest line drive rate on the board (29.9%). How one pulls off that combo is pretty mind blowing. Everything that’s not a liner or a barrel must be incredibly weakly hit.
Clayton Richard has an aEV 5.8 mph above Suter’s, but nearly half the Barrels/BBE. Of course, a lot of that is due to the highest GB rate on the board.
The sub-.300 club is not very large today. In fact, only Ross Stripling is below .280 and only Corey Kluber is below .290 among those who have spent the entire season in the rotation.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
There are not a lot of expensive pitchers today. One of them is really expensive and another may be too expensive. The top values are probably not going to be the top pitchers tonight.
Value Tier One
Ross Stripling (3) may not be what his surface numbers suggest, but he’s still been an All-Star quality pitcher and tonight you get that in a decent spot with some upside for less than $10K still.
Seth Lugo is in a…I don’t even really know how to grade this matchup in Arizona right now. Is it a negative or positive run environment? Are they still the worst team against RHP or even really bad? They might be and he’s been a quality arm in both the bullpen and through two starts. He costs just $6.4K on FanDuel and at 84 pitches last time out, probably gets to 90 tonight. Maybe a bump down behind Paxton for $7.1K on DraftKings.
Value Tier Two
James Paxton (2) really doesn’t have a bad matchup being a LHP facing the Red Sox. The lack of weak contact along with inconsistent strikeouts are a slight concern here, but the park will help and he’s eating up innings. His cost is too low, barely breaking $10K.
Value Tier Three
Corey Kluber (1) has an exorbitant price tag. That’s really it. If you can afford him, he’s the best pitcher on the board. The Twins aren’t terrible and in a positive run environment, but price tag is the only hold back here. He reaches $12K on FanDuel without another pitcher above $10K.
Brandon McCarthy is right around the $6K mark and facing the Padres. If you’re paying up for Kluber, Morton or Paxton tonight, he’d make a nice SP2 compliment.
Kevin Gausman misses a lot of bats because he needs to with this defense in this park, but they haven’t exactly translated into strikeouts. The outlook improves at a reasonable cost against the Marlins tonight.
Jose Urena is continually priced around $6K (or even less) and is not that bad. He’s also in a great spot tonight in Baltimore. He should probably be around $1K more expensive.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Rick Porcello costs right around $9K in a fairly neutral spot. He’s good enough to cover that, though he’s not likely to go off and win any GPPs.
Zack Godley has not been very good, but still gets strikeouts at a league average rate with a lot of ground balls and is not very expensive in a great matchup against the Mets.
Jon Lester is not as good as his ERA and is in a dangerous, but winnable spot with some at a reasonable price in a favorable park with a great defense.
Tyler Skaggs does have some upside in a favorable spot, but is now in the $9K range and the contact quality may be a concern here.
Brent Suter has been one of the top strikeout pitchers on the board over the last month. He’s in a strong spot too for exactly $6.5K on either site. The problem we have is that he’s only going to pitch five innings. They should be five quality innings though.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.