Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, June 1st
Chaos! That’s how June starts. At least one major league debut, possibly two, more Openers and bullpen games. Of course, these are more my problems than yours. I have to write about them, but you can simply choose to ignore these situations with several top guys on the mound tonight (though two are facing each other in tough spots). You may have to make some offensive decisions concerning these uncertainties however, and we’ll cover them more below. A bit of a mess, but some potential value in unexpected spots on today’s board.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | -7.7 | 5.11 | 5.5 | 46.0% | 0.99 | 5.36 | 5.52 | Yankees | 114 | 118 | 92 |
| Austin Pruitt | Rays | -0.8 | 4.35 | 5.4 | 47.1% | 0.92 | 4.33 | 3.98 | Mariners | 100 | 101 | 105 |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | -0.9 | 4.64 | 5.5 | 44.2% | 0.93 | 4.89 | 4.66 | Angels | 94 | 110 | 112 |
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | 1.2 | 4.50 | 5.4 | 35.4% | 1.07 | 4.70 | 3.57 | Blue Jays | 91 | 89 | 77 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 10.2 | 3.40 | 6.2 | 45.7% | 1.05 | 3.21 | 3.54 | Twins | 88 | 90 | 76 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 7.3 | 4.52 | 5.3 | 36.4% | 0.98 | 4.36 | 5.66 | White Sox | 96 | 102 | 106 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 4.8 | 2.85 | 6.7 | 39.8% | 0.87 | 2.53 | 3.09 | Astros | 96 | 118 | 106 |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | -6.8 | 4.87 | 5.2 | 40.7% | 0.93 | 4.98 | 5.10 | Phillies | 82 | 94 | 80 |
| Clay Buchholz | Diamondbacks | 6.9 | 5.02 | 5.2 | 40.1% | 1.00 | 7.30 | 5.64 | Marlins | 74 | 78 | 88 |
| Elieser Hernandez | Marlins | -3.3 | 4.62 | 5.0 | 35.6% | 1.00 | 3.53 | 4.27 | Diamondbacks | 80 | 68 | 82 |
| Frankie Montas | Athletics | 1.4 | 4.36 | 6.0 | 34.9% | 1.04 | 4.87 | 3.41 | Royals | 90 | 88 | 107 |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 9.5 | 3.67 | 6.1 | 44.5% | 0.87 | 3.36 | 3.24 | Red Sox | 98 | 120 | 129 |
| Hector Santiago | White Sox | -4.3 | 5.23 | 5.2 | 30.9% | 0.98 | 5.78 | 3.66 | Brewers | 96 | 76 | 131 |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | 1.4 | 4.58 | 5.4 | 33.6% | 1.04 | 5.08 | 4.62 | Athletics | 113 | 99 | 46 |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | 6.3 | 4.28 | 5.0 | 39.3% | 0.93 | 3.77 | 4.68 | Rangers | 83 | 83 | 124 |
| Jaime Garcia | Blue Jays | -3.2 | 4.41 | 5.5 | 52.7% | 1.07 | 4.79 | 3.55 | Tigers | 106 | 109 | 124 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | -2.2 | 3.95 | 5.5 | 49.5% | 0.92 | 4.19 | 3.02 | Cardinals | 96 | 94 | 100 |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | -4 | 4.30 | 5.6 | 39.5% | 1.05 | 3.48 | 3.10 | Indians | 86 | 104 | 155 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 6.4 | 4.33 | 5.5 | 40.1% | 0.99 | 4.01 | 4.18 | Nationals | 102 | 103 | 106 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | -4.8 | 4.09 | 5.9 | 53.2% | 0.92 | 4.08 | 3.52 | Rays | 105 | 104 | 113 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | -0.2 | 3.50 | 6.6 | 50.0% | 0.92 | 2.57 | 3.22 | Pirates | 96 | 101 | 89 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | -4.6 | 3.98 | 5.2 | 42.8% | 0.93 | 4.72 | 2.99 | Giants | 117 | 102 | 113 |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | 4.6 | 4.23 | 5.6 | 51.8% | 0.99 | 3.73 | 3.71 | Orioles | 93 | 79 | 44 |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | -6.4 | 3.31 | 6.2 | 43.3% | 0.99 | 3.08 | 3.77 | Braves | 103 | 100 | 110 |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | -0.4 | 4.11 | 5.6 | 44.9% | 1.33 | 4.13 | 5.68 | Dodgers | 101 | 89 | 88 |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 12.9 | 5.05 | 5.4 | 56.5% | 0.92 | 4.66 | 9.26 | Mets | 94 | 108 | 120 |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | -4.8 | 4.56 | 5.2 | 41.4% | 0.91 | 5.33 | 4.89 | Padres | 94 | 81 | 89 |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | -0.1 | 4.37 | 5.2 | 47.5% | 0.92 | 4.43 | 2.86 | Cubs | 108 | 110 | 139 |
| Dennis Santana | Dodgers | -4 | 1.33 | Rockies | 84 | 71 | 130 | |||||
| Walker Lockett | Padres | -5.5 | 0.91 | Reds | 97 | 87 | 119 |
Note: When discussing individual pitch results, Statcast (Baseball Savant) is being used as the source. They sometimes have different numbers (even pitch rates) than Fangraphs or Brooks Baseball.
Austin Pruitt is likely to pitch the majority of the game in Seattle after Sergio Romo. If this information is incorrect, nothing is lost in declining to list and talk about Romo’s potential two innings of work. Pruitt has not started a game this season, but has exceeded 60 pitches in four of his last five outings with no more than 73. He completed more than five innings in each of his last two outings. He doesn’t miss many bats, but he doesn’t walk many either. The matchup is reasonable in a negative run environment in Seattle.
Blaine Hardy had pitched out of the pen for four plus major league seasons before making his first start a couple of weeks ago. In three of them, he’s gone 16.1 innings with five ERs and 13 strikeouts, extending to 85 pitches and seven innings last time out against the White Sox. Statcast credits him with the top xwOBA on the board among those who have made more than one start (six of 29 fly balls have been infield flies), but he also has a 25.9 LD% to go with his 3.3% Barrels/BBE. There’s some ironing out to come. The good news is a perfectly league average strikeout rate. His opponent, the Blue Jays, are without their top bat and have a 28.3 K% over the last seven days.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed at least three runs in five of his last six starts (last two against Houston) with seven HRs over that span. Velocity actually appears to be trending up for him. The estimators and SwStr% remain stable over the last month. Statcast says the biggest change in his arsenal has been that the changeup has been hit harder (xwOBA up .170 points, aEV and LA up as well). He’s allowed two HRs on it this season (including one last start) after not allowing a single one last year. It’s his only pitch, aside from his four-seam fastball both this year and last, with an xwOBA above .306. The location doesn’t appear to be any different from last season and he’s getting more whiffs on it. It appears an aberration. The Twins represent a favorable park adjusted matchup by wRC+, even in a positive run environment, though the peripherals are a bit more average aside from a 10.8 HR/FB against RHP, which is a bit strange considering that the top half of the lineup generally has good power against righties.
Chris Sale did not make it out of the fifth last time out and has not gone past the fifth in two of his last three starts now. He’s allowed eight HRs over his last eight starts too (so perhaps a one off Houston top of the order bat?), but he’s also gone at least seven innings in five of those eight starts, allowed more than three runs once all season (last time out against the Braves) and has at least eight strikeouts in five straight. He has the top SwStr% on the board by over a full point and by three full points over the last month. In addition, his 85.4 mph aEV is one-tenth of a point off the top of the board, while his .272 xwOBA is behind only Cole among those who have more than three starts this season. It’s not an ideal matchup in Houston, but it’s actually a massive park upgrade and we can see he has a .249 xwOBA outside Fenway since last season.
Elieser Hernandez has just a 12.9 K%, but the potential for a bit more (8.6 SwStr%). His ERA is half his estimators due to an 87.9 LOB%. His 3.3% Barrels/BBE comes with a 90.4 mph aEV that’s a bottom five mark on the board. The good news is that he may have the top park adjusted matchup on the board in Arizona (68 wRC+, 25.7 K%, 10.5 HR/FB vs RHP) and he has shown some strikeout upside in the minors, though he’s now thrown just 27 innings above A-ball (including his 18 in the majors).
Gerrit Cole has the top strikeout rate on the board, though his SwStr% lags more than a point behind his opponent’s tonight. Further, that K% has not stalled, while the SwStr% has dropped over the last month. Further, further, he faces the Red Sox (120 wRC+, 18.3 K% vs RHP), but does so in a very negative run environment and his .267 xwOBA is lowest on the board among those with more than three starts. He’s failed to complete six innings or generate at least seven strikeouts each just once this season, although he’s failed to go beyond six innings in three of his last five.
Jaime Barria allowed more than two runs in a start for the first time last time out at Yankee Stadium and that can certainly be forgiven. He’s had an impressive swinging strike rate of 13.5% or better in three straight starts and a significant park and matchup upgrade in hosting the Rangers (83 wRC+, 25.9 K% vs RHP) tonight.
Jameson Taillon is above average by peripherals (15.2 K-BB%) and manages contact well enough to generate an xwOBA below .300. His .290 (49.7 GB%) mark is actually third best on the board among those with more than three starts. The overall results and workload is sometimes hit or miss, but the overall numbers are favorable in a fairly decent spot. The Cardinals have been a below average offense (94 wRC+, 15.0 K-BB% vs RHP) in a negative run environment.
Jose Berrios has bounced back from a rough patch in big way: 22.2 IP – 13 H – 5 R – 2 HR – 4 BB – 27 K – 84 BF last three starts. Further good news is that he doesn’t really seem to have a platoon split this year, though there’s a bit of a gap in his K-BB% (more than five points). He’s been one of the top contact managers on the board (his .294 xwOBA is fourth best among those with more than three starts). The largest concern is the matchup. The Cleveland offense (16.0 HR/FB vs RHP) is the hottest in baseball (155 wRC+, 17.5 K%, 21.1 HR/FB last seven days).
Mike Leake doesn’t miss bats and his Statcast numbers remain ugly, but he’s kept the hard hit rate below 40% in five of his last six starts. That’s dropped his xwOBA below .400 finally with the aEV nearly below 90 mph now. He also has a 60.7 GB% over his last four starts. That’s meant more sinkers, which is not necessarily a good look against a Tampa Bay offense with a 21.1 wFB that’s sixth best in baseball. However, he’s maxed out at 45.2% fastballs this season and often throws a lot of sliders and cutters as well, two pitches against which the Rays rank near the bottom of the league. In fact, their -9.5 wCT mark is the worst in baseball.
Miles Mikolas has failed to pitch into the seventh inning in just two of his last nine starts and allowed more than two runs for the first time in eight starts last time out in Pittsburgh. He’s only struck out more than five a few times (strangely against a couple of the least strikeout prone offenses in the league), but he pitches deep into games with quality contact management (86 mph aEV) in a favorable park. This will be his third time (and second consecutive) facing Pittsburgh (19.2 K% vs RHP), which is a bit of a concern, but he’s gone 13 innings, allowing six runs with one HR, 12 Ks and just one BB. This will be the first time he gets them at home too.
Nick Pivetta has at least seven strikeouts in four straight and only more than that once, in which he struck out 11 Orioles. He’s solved his reverse platoon problem (RHBs .249 wOBA, 29.1 K-BB%) because while his four-seamer still has a .396 xwOBA, he’s now throwing a curveball twice as often this year (22% vs 11%), which both it and his slider (15%) exceed a 30 Whiff% with a sub-.190 xwOBA. His 33.3 K% over the last month is behind only the top two guys tonight. He gets a park upgrade tonight in San Francisco against a predominantly right-handed offense with a 17.7 K-BB% vs RHP.
Stephen Strasburg has failed to pitch into the seventh inning just three times in 11 starts. His 28.6 K% is fifth best on the board, fourth best over the last month (30.8%). His ERA and estimators are all low threes. He’s been a solid number two for a good team this season with numbers that are in line with his career. The matchup is marginal. The Braves don’t do anything greatly or poorly as a team offense, though they have just an 18.3 K% at home.
Tyler Mahle throws a four-seam fastball 68% of the time. The pitch has allowed seven HRs, but has just a .305 xwOBA with a 23.5 Whiff%. His slider (20.5%) has a 31.6 Whiff%, but four HRs and a .496 xwOBA. His changeup (10.7%) makes up the remainder of his arsenal with a .388 xwOBA, 19.6 Whiff% and two HRs. We’ve established that he misses bats, but gets hit hard (22.1 K%, 10.9% Barrels/BBE). The Padres have a -10.9 wFB that’s bottom seven in baseball. Their -26.9 wSL is easily the worst! It’s a favorable park in a high upside spot (Padres 81 wRC+, 26.3 K% vs RHP).
Zack Wheeler has gone six innings in four of his last five starts. His 24.6 K% over the last month and an 86.2 mph aEV this year that are both top quarter of tonight’s board. How the hell does he have an ERA above five? BABIP and strand rate. He hasn’t been that bad, but usually struggles through that one inning, occasionally losing command. The matchup against the Cubs is not ideal, but the environment is pitcher friendly.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.287 BABIP – 72.8 LOB% – 13.4 HR/FB)
Mike Foltynewicz (.285 – 80.3% – 9.1) can’t support his strikeout rate and is generating both a strand and home run rate far out of line with career norms, while he continues to have platoon split issues. He’s not terrible, but the cost is much too high.
Chase Anderson (.219 – 83.9% – 17.6) has allowed 13 HRs over his last nine starts, despite the lowest aEV on the board (85.3 mph). He needs some ground balls.
Clay Buchholz (.067 – 100% – 10) has obviously been extremely lucky through two starts. His 12.5% Barrels/BBE is actually the highest mark on the board.
Tyler Chatwood (.295 – 76% – 5.4) has a walk rate (20.3%) higher than a 19.8 K% that he can’t support with just a 7.1 SwStr%. Brandon Nimmo is assured of at least one walk tonight.
Hector Santiago (.289 – 80.4% – 14.5)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Sonny Gray has just not shown any type of consistency this season. His .369 xwOBA is sixth worst on the board tonight and he hasn’t been able to string together more than two straight quality starts this year. He’s allowed six HRs over his last seven starts and has struck out more than five just three times this year. The four-seam fastball is the pitch he’s thrown the most often and while the whiff rate has actually increased to 22% this season, it has a .502 xwOBA and 93.3 mph aEV overall. All of that said, he can still miss a few bats and is in one of the top spots on the board (Orioles 18.0 K-BB% vs RHP, 44 wRC+, 20 K-BB%, 4.0 HR/FB last seven days) for just $5.8K on DraftKings.
Ian Kennedy is still missing bats at a decent rate and costs just $5.5K on DraftKings against a marginal offense against RHP (99 wRC+, 23.9 K%) and one of the coldest in the league (46 wRC+, 24.7 K% last seven days). It’s not terrible in a secondary spot in a park he can be successful in, but Khris Davis is expected back tonight.
Dennis Santana is a 22 year-old converted SS, who was graded the number eight prospect in the Dodger system this season less than a month ago, but with just a 45 Future Value grade. He’s exceeded a 30% strikeout rate in 50 combined innings at AA and AAA this season though. Here’s the problem: the Dodgers are calling this a bullpen game. He’s not exceeded 24 batters in a start in the minors this year and we know how the Dodgers like to be conservative with their starters. Notice that I did not mention Coors as the biggest problem here because the Rockies have a 71 wRC+, 23.7 K% and 8.1 Hard-Soft% against RHP this year. None the less, I’d be very tempted to roster him in most spots at the minimum cost tonight. Considering the park and uncertainty surrounding this team’s intentions makes it so difficult.
Frankie Montas struck out seven of 23 Diamondbacks in his first major league start with just a 7.3 SwStr%. The 25-year old has been a prospect of some note in the past, but injuries have held him to 124 total innings at all levels since the start of 2016 with all of his 32 at the major league level last season coming out of the bullpen (10.5 BB%). In his 2017 Fangraphs scouting report, which graded him the fifth best prospect in the system with a 50 Future Value grade, he was considered a potentially elite late-inning arm. He’s in a decent run prevention spot in Kansas City, but they have just a 17.7 K% vs RHP. He’s need to do too much for a cost above $7K on either site.
Chris Stratton doesn’t miss enough bats and allows too much hard contact to give us much confident, even in this high strikeout upside spot (Phillies split high 26.6 K% vs RHP).
Walker Lockett has a 40 Future Value grade on his Fangraphs page with a slightly below average strikeout rate (19.2%) in 59.1 AAA innings this season.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 16.1% | 9.9% | 12.2% | 16.8% | Season | 19.7% | 11.3% | 15.5% | 19.2% | Home | 14.1% | 9.5% | 12.7% | 12.4% | L14Days | 15.7% | 13.7% | 36.1% | |
| Austin Pruitt | Rays | L2 Yrs | 16.7% | 6.0% | 11.8% | 20.1% | Season | 13.5% | 6.4% | 10.3% | 18.0% | Road | 18.9% | 6.4% | 15.0% | 13.7% | L14Days | 16.7% | 4.2% | 13.3% | 16.2% |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 14.8% | 4.3% | 14.6% | 19.0% | Season | 16.1% | 2.8% | 20.6% | 26.1% | Road | 12.6% | 4.1% | 12.9% | 21.8% | L14Days | 14.6% | 5.5% | 28.6% | 7.0% |
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 18.8% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 12.5% | Season | 20.7% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 16.6% | Home | 18.5% | 6.9% | 14.6% | 18.5% | L14Days | 23.4% | 2.1% | 20.0% | |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Yrs | 26.6% | 5.7% | 13.8% | 15.5% | Season | 24.4% | 5.5% | 14.3% | 22.3% | Road | 27.8% | 5.5% | 9.4% | 13.9% | L14Days | 24.1% | 5.2% | 21.4% | 27.5% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 20.6% | 8.3% | 12.1% | 14.1% | Season | 16.6% | 9.6% | 17.6% | 10.9% | Road | 22.8% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 7.5% | L14Days | 17.8% | 13.3% | 21.4% | 26.6% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 32.4% | 5.2% | 13.0% | 12.8% | Season | 34.8% | 6.7% | 13.4% | -0.6% | Road | 37.5% | 5.0% | 10.6% | 8.3% | L14Days | 34.0% | 10.0% | 22.2% | 3.7% |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | L2 Yrs | 19.1% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 18.1% | Season | 19.2% | 10.8% | 13.1% | 32.2% | Home | 14.5% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 21.9% | L14Days | 15.9% | 11.4% | 20.0% | 31.3% |
| Clay Buchholz | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 15.7% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 13.9% | Season | 13.2% | 2.6% | 10.0% | 15.7% | Home | 12.5% | 6.3% | 16.7% | 7.7% | L14Days | 13.2% | 2.6% | 10.0% | 15.7% |
| Elieser Hernandez | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 12.9% | 1.4% | 8.3% | 35.0% | Season | 12.9% | 1.4% | 8.3% | 35.0% | Road | 16.7% | 26.6% | L14Days | 16.2% | 7.7% | 35.4% | |||
| Frankie Montas | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 24.6% | 12.6% | 22.2% | 16.8% | Season | 30.4% | 8.7% | 21.4% | Road | 23.6% | 15.3% | 33.3% | 11.4% | L14Days | 30.4% | 8.7% | 21.4% | ||
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | L2 Yrs | 25.4% | 6.7% | 13.5% | 8.4% | Season | 39.4% | 6.9% | 10.6% | 16.5% | Home | 26.5% | 5.9% | 12.2% | 6.9% | L14Days | 32.7% | 10.2% | 18.2% | 3.7% |
| Hector Santiago | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 18.1% | 10.5% | 12.2% | 19.9% | Season | 20.4% | 11.2% | 14.5% | 16.1% | Home | 17.7% | 9.0% | 14.9% | 18.7% | L14Days | 25.5% | 5.9% | 26.3% | 37.1% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Yrs | 20.9% | 8.5% | 14.1% | 24.1% | Season | 20.8% | 7.7% | 12.5% | 20.4% | Home | 20.7% | 9.9% | 15.5% | 29.9% | L14Days | 18.4% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 19.5% |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | L2 Yrs | 19.4% | 6.5% | 11.4% | 15.7% | Season | 19.4% | 6.5% | 11.4% | 15.7% | Home | 16.4% | 4.9% | 31.9% | L14Days | 19.1% | 4.8% | 30.0% | 6.2% | |
| Jaime Garcia | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 19.5% | 8.8% | 17.7% | 13.9% | Season | 21.1% | 10.3% | 15.0% | 22.7% | Road | 17.1% | 10.9% | 12.6% | 14.6% | L14Days | 19.2% | 12.5% | 4.7% | |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 21.1% | 6.4% | 12.5% | 9.7% | Season | 22.1% | 7.0% | 13.2% | 3.6% | Road | 21.1% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.4% | L14Days | 26.9% | 3.9% | 8.3% | -5.6% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Yrs | 21.5% | 7.7% | 10.6% | 7.9% | Season | 24.7% | 4.8% | 12.7% | 4.8% | Home | 27.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.0% | L14Days | 29.3% | 5.2% | 11.1% | 10.6% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Yrs | 22.1% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 11.5% | Season | 27.1% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 13.6% | Home | 24.3% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 14.7% | L14Days | 23.5% | 9.8% | 7.7% | -3.0% |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 16.4% | 4.5% | 12.7% | 15.6% | Season | 13.9% | 5.7% | 11.8% | 22.9% | Home | 16.2% | 4.5% | 14.1% | 16.0% | L14Days | 9.3% | 16.7% | ||
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 19.5% | 2.7% | 11.5% | 13.9% | Season | 19.5% | 2.7% | 11.5% | 13.9% | Home | 21.1% | 0.9% | 14.7% | L14Days | 25.5% | 3.6% | |||
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 25.3% | 8.7% | 15.5% | 17.4% | Season | 28.8% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 12.0% | Road | 21.2% | 11.2% | 14.3% | 20.4% | L14Days | 31.1% | 6.7% | 21.4% | |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 20.7% | 8.5% | 15.0% | 14.5% | Season | 18.6% | 11.9% | 12.0% | 19.9% | Road | 21.5% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 15.7% | L14Days | 24.0% | 8.0% | 12.5% | 21.9% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 29.4% | 7.0% | 11.2% | 8.0% | Season | 28.6% | 6.6% | 16.7% | 12.5% | Road | 29.6% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 6.5% | L14Days | 30.6% | 12.2% | 16.7% | 37.1% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 21.3% | 7.1% | 15.6% | 6.8% | Season | 20.9% | 9.4% | 15.4% | 11.0% | Home | 22.2% | 7.9% | 12.9% | 3.8% | L14Days | 12.2% | 8.2% | 18.8% | 2.6% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 19.1% | 13.9% | 15.7% | 11.2% | Season | 19.8% | 20.3% | 5.4% | 18.3% | Road | 18.9% | 14.0% | 13.9% | 8.0% | L14Days | 11.1% | 30.6% | 25.0% | 14.2% |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | L2 Yrs | 20.3% | 9.6% | 15.9% | 17.3% | Season | 22.1% | 8.7% | 21.0% | 23.0% | Road | 15.6% | 11.2% | 8.0% | 15.7% | L14Days | 20.4% | 12.2% | 27.3% | 21.2% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | L2 Yrs | 21.9% | 9.7% | 17.2% | 12.5% | Season | 23.6% | 8.4% | 13.7% | 9.2% | Home | 21.5% | 11.2% | 19.7% | 13.2% | L14Days | 28.9% | 3.9% | 9.1% | 17.2% |
| Dennis Santana | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | Season | Road | L14Days | ||||||||||||||||
| Walker Lockett | Padres | L2 Yrs | Season | Home | L14Days |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | Road | 23.4% | 7.8% | 17.0% | 18.0% | RH | 23.3% | 10.3% | 17.2% | 18.8% | L7Days | 27.1% | 8.7% | 15.1% | 8.7% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.6% | 6.3% | 11.7% | 9.8% | RH | 20.0% | 7.0% | 13.3% | 16.9% | L7Days | 19.4% | 4.3% | 9.8% | 14.0% |
| Angels | Home | 22.0% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 19.9% | RH | 20.0% | 8.8% | 13.2% | 20.3% | L7Days | 21.1% | 11.3% | 15.2% | 30.9% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 24.4% | 9.8% | 13.4% | 17.6% | LH | 22.8% | 8.9% | 13.0% | 16.3% | L7Days | 28.3% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 8.8% |
| Twins | Home | 22.5% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 20.7% | RH | 22.1% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 22.1% | L7Days | 22.9% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 22.0% |
| White Sox | Home | 25.9% | 7.7% | 10.9% | 7.4% | RH | 24.0% | 7.3% | 12.7% | 12.5% | L7Days | 26.2% | 6.8% | 17.2% | 16.2% |
| Astros | Home | 22.7% | 8.9% | 13.5% | 11.2% | LH | 21.3% | 8.4% | 11.6% | 15.6% | L7Days | 25.8% | 6.5% | 17.5% | 18.5% |
| Phillies | Road | 26.8% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 8.0% | RH | 26.6% | 9.7% | 13.0% | 8.2% | L7Days | 27.3% | 7.0% | 11.1% | -2.4% |
| Marlins | Road | 24.7% | 7.5% | 11.4% | 8.7% | RH | 23.9% | 7.0% | 10.4% | 11.4% | L7Days | 23.0% | 5.4% | 10.0% | 14.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 25.1% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 21.9% | RH | 25.7% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 15.5% | L7Days | 18.3% | 7.8% | 13.2% | 29.0% |
| Royals | Home | 18.5% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 23.0% | RH | 17.7% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 21.3% | L7Days | 16.5% | 6.7% | 15.0% | 22.8% |
| Red Sox | Road | 21.5% | 7.6% | 14.3% | 18.5% | RH | 18.3% | 8.2% | 15.0% | 19.0% | L7Days | 17.6% | 9.0% | 15.9% | 10.8% |
| Brewers | Road | 21.3% | 7.7% | 15.2% | 13.5% | LH | 20.4% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 19.1% | L7Days | 20.1% | 11.7% | 13.2% | 33.9% |
| Athletics | Road | 23.7% | 8.2% | 16.7% | 23.1% | RH | 23.2% | 9.1% | 13.2% | 24.5% | L7Days | 24.7% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 26.3% |
| Rangers | Road | 26.1% | 7.4% | 13.3% | 14.7% | RH | 25.9% | 8.6% | 13.5% | 19.5% | L7Days | 22.6% | 12.4% | 12.3% | 8.0% |
| Tigers | Home | 18.1% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 24.8% | LH | 17.5% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 20.8% | L7Days | 16.9% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 18.9% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.1% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 20.6% | RH | 23.2% | 8.2% | 13.4% | 18.5% | L7Days | 23.9% | 6.1% | 15.3% | 15.5% |
| Indians | Road | 22.9% | 8.0% | 13.4% | 14.3% | RH | 22.8% | 8.3% | 16.0% | 23.5% | L7Days | 17.5% | 6.8% | 21.1% | 32.7% |
| Nationals | Road | 19.7% | 9.8% | 15.1% | 17.7% | RH | 20.1% | 10.3% | 15.6% | 14.5% | L7Days | 17.3% | 7.9% | 13.5% | 12.1% |
| Rays | Road | 21.8% | 7.9% | 12.7% | 16.6% | RH | 21.1% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 17.6% | L7Days | 17.7% | 9.4% | 14.0% | 27.6% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.2% | 7.8% | 12.8% | 12.8% | RH | 19.2% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 9.3% | L7Days | 19.2% | 4.0% | 8.0% | 6.9% |
| Giants | Home | 22.8% | 8.1% | 13.0% | 24.7% | RH | 24.9% | 7.2% | 10.9% | 21.6% | L7Days | 20.7% | 9.1% | 12.8% | 20.2% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.0% | 7.6% | 13.4% | 11.4% | RH | 25.1% | 7.1% | 12.1% | 12.8% | L7Days | 24.4% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 11.2% |
| Braves | Home | 18.3% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 23.3% | RH | 20.6% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 18.3% | L7Days | 19.0% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 19.1% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.7% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 20.0% | LH | 21.5% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 16.6% | L7Days | 22.3% | 7.7% | 12.9% | 19.0% |
| Mets | Home | 22.4% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 10.2% | RH | 20.3% | 9.0% | 12.5% | 16.8% | L7Days | 19.7% | 9.2% | 15.4% | 32.8% |
| Padres | Home | 25.1% | 9.5% | 11.7% | 18.2% | RH | 26.3% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 14.4% | L7Days | 26.2% | 7.5% | 14.0% | 10.2% |
| Cubs | Road | 21.1% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 17.7% | RH | 20.2% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 13.6% | L7Days | 18.3% | 11.3% | 13.4% | 18.7% |
| Rockies | Home | 23.4% | 8.8% | 17.4% | 10.5% | RH | 23.7% | 9.0% | 14.6% | 8.1% | L7Days | 17.2% | 7.6% | 17.8% | 15.2% |
| Reds | Road | 19.5% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 17.0% | RH | 21.4% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 17.0% | L7Days | 18.8% | 7.3% | 11.5% | 21.2% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.8 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.16 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 19.7% | 7.4% | 2.66 | 17.6% | 7.5% | 2.35 |
| Austin Pruitt | Rays | 13.5% | 8.2% | 1.65 | 14.3% | 6.6% | 2.17 |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 16.1% | 6.4% | 2.52 | 14.6% | 5.1% | 2.86 |
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | 20.7% | 10.4% | 1.99 | 20.7% | 10.4% | 1.99 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 24.4% | 13.1% | 1.86 | 26.9% | 13.3% | 2.02 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 16.6% | 8.7% | 1.91 | 16.1% | 11.3% | 1.42 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 34.8% | 15.9% | 2.19 | 36.7% | 16.3% | 2.25 |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | 19.2% | 7.9% | 2.43 | 18.1% | 7.3% | 2.48 |
| Clay Buchholz | Diamondbacks | 13.2% | 9.2% | 1.43 | 13.2% | 9.2% | 1.43 |
| Elieser Hernandez | Marlins | 12.9% | 8.6% | 1.50 | 12.9% | 8.6% | 1.50 |
| Frankie Montas | Athletics | 30.4% | 7.3% | 4.16 | 30.4% | 7.3% | 4.16 |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 39.4% | 14.6% | 2.70 | 39.3% | 13.0% | 3.02 |
| Hector Santiago | White Sox | 20.4% | 9.3% | 2.19 | 18.9% | 8.3% | 2.28 |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | 20.8% | 8.3% | 2.51 | 21.1% | 9.0% | 2.34 |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | 19.4% | 11.8% | 1.64 | 21.7% | 13.1% | 1.66 |
| Jaime Garcia | Blue Jays | 21.1% | 9.2% | 2.29 | 16.9% | 10.0% | 1.69 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 22.1% | 9.5% | 2.33 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 2.25 |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 24.7% | 11.8% | 2.09 | 23.1% | 12.8% | 1.80 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 27.1% | 8.8% | 3.08 | 24.6% | 7.3% | 3.37 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 13.9% | 7.2% | 1.93 | 12.9% | 6.9% | 1.87 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 19.5% | 9.0% | 2.17 | 18.6% | 8.8% | 2.11 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 28.8% | 11.3% | 2.55 | 33.3% | 11.8% | 2.82 |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | 18.6% | 9.2% | 2.02 | 20.8% | 9.1% | 2.29 |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 28.6% | 11.4% | 2.51 | 30.8% | 11.7% | 2.63 |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | 20.9% | 11.9% | 1.76 | 17.5% | 10.0% | 1.75 |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 19.8% | 7.1% | 2.79 | 17.0% | 6.2% | 2.74 |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | 22.1% | 9.6% | 2.30 | 15.8% | 8.0% | 1.98 |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | 23.6% | 10.3% | 2.29 | 24.6% | 10.5% | 2.34 |
| Dennis Santana | Dodgers | ||||||
| Walker Lockett | Padres |
Gerrit Cole caution flag #1: SwStr% is down substantially over the last month with no change in K%. It’s been below 9.5% in each of his last two starts for only the second and third time this season.
Jaime Barria could/should generate more Ks. The SwStr% is higher than Cole’s over the last month.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.22 ERA – 4.20 SIERA – 4.17 xFIP – 4.29 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 5.07 | 4.84 | -0.23 | 5.07 | -0.25 | 5.29 | 0.22 | 6.57 | 1.50 | 5.47 | 5.15 | -0.32 | 4.87 | -0.60 | 5.13 | -0.34 |
| Austin Pruitt | Rays | 4.02 | 4.58 | 0.56 | 4.02 | 0.89 | 4.55 | 0.53 | 4.95 | 0.93 | 3.24 | 4.23 | 0.99 | 4.5 | 1.26 | 4.32 | 1.08 |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 3.55 | 4.01 | 0.46 | 3.55 | 0.34 | 4.95 | 1.40 | 5.52 | 1.97 | 4.22 | 4.34 | 0.12 | 4.17 | -0.05 | 6.05 | 1.83 |
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | 2.70 | 4.22 | 1.52 | 2.70 | 1.81 | 3.47 | 0.77 | 4.50 | 1.80 | 2.70 | 4.23 | 1.53 | 4.51 | 1.81 | 3.47 | 0.77 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 3.98 | 3.54 | -0.44 | 3.98 | -0.52 | 3.70 | -0.28 | 3.82 | -0.16 | 4.98 | 3.31 | -1.67 | 3.18 | -1.80 | 3.61 | -1.37 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 4.42 | 5.14 | 0.72 | 4.42 | 0.96 | 6.28 | 1.86 | 5.75 | 1.33 | 7.08 | 5.84 | -1.24 | 5.94 | -1.14 | 7.40 | 0.32 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 2.76 | 2.63 | -0.13 | 2.76 | 0.07 | 2.94 | 0.18 | 2.52 | -0.24 | 3.15 | 2.53 | -0.62 | 2.69 | -0.46 | 3.07 | -0.08 |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | 4.97 | 4.81 | -0.16 | 4.97 | -0.36 | 4.70 | -0.27 | 5.96 | 0.99 | 6.31 | 4.96 | -1.35 | 4.76 | -1.55 | 6.55 | 0.24 |
| Clay Buchholz | Diamondbacks | 1.64 | 5.64 | 4.00 | 1.64 | 3.78 | 4.84 | 3.20 | 3.81 | 2.17 | 1.64 | 5.64 | 4.00 | 5.42 | 3.78 | 4.84 | 3.20 |
| Elieser Hernandez | Marlins | 2.50 | 4.62 | 2.12 | 2.50 | 1.94 | 3.73 | 1.23 | 4.83 | 2.33 | 2.50 | 4.62 | 2.12 | 4.44 | 1.94 | 3.73 | 1.23 |
| Frankie Montas | Athletics | 1.50 | 3.41 | 1.91 | 1.50 | 2.17 | 1.78 | 0.28 | 1.50 | 3.41 | 1.91 | 3.67 | 2.17 | 1.78 | 0.28 | ||
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 2.05 | 2.26 | 0.21 | 2.05 | 0.46 | 2.30 | 0.25 | 1.39 | -0.66 | 2.45 | 2.49 | 0.04 | 2.72 | 0.27 | 2.87 | 0.42 |
| Hector Santiago | White Sox | 4.87 | 4.75 | -0.12 | 4.87 | 0.65 | 5.94 | 1.07 | 8.42 | 3.55 | 6.08 | 5.05 | -1.03 | 5.67 | -0.41 | 6.92 | 0.84 |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | 5.15 | 4.32 | -0.83 | 5.15 | -0.85 | 4.31 | -0.84 | 4.94 | -0.21 | 7.09 | 4.38 | -2.71 | 4.41 | -2.68 | 4.73 | -2.36 |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | 2.97 | 4.28 | 1.31 | 2.97 | 1.52 | 4.34 | 1.37 | 5.14 | 2.17 | 2.70 | 3.69 | 0.99 | 3.77 | 1.07 | 3.85 | 1.15 |
| Jaime Garcia | Blue Jays | 5.52 | 4.56 | -0.96 | 5.52 | -0.59 | 5.37 | -0.15 | 6.25 | 0.73 | 6.63 | 5.16 | -1.47 | 5.84 | -0.79 | 4.48 | -2.15 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 4.53 | 3.82 | -0.71 | 4.53 | -0.76 | 3.86 | -0.67 | 3.25 | -1.28 | 4.15 | 3.99 | -0.16 | 4.22 | 0.07 | 3.73 | -0.42 |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 3.67 | 3.46 | -0.21 | 3.67 | -0.09 | 3.61 | -0.06 | 3.80 | 0.13 | 3.71 | 3.76 | 0.05 | 4.22 | 0.51 | 4.47 | 0.76 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 2.55 | 3.97 | 1.42 | 2.55 | 1.25 | 3.40 | 0.85 | 4.41 | 1.86 | 2.57 | 4.24 | 1.67 | 3.92 | 1.35 | 2.94 | 0.37 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 4.93 | 4.60 | -0.33 | 4.93 | -0.46 | 4.38 | -0.55 | 4.33 | -0.60 | 3.34 | 4.03 | 0.69 | 3.96 | 0.62 | 3.52 | 0.18 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 2.58 | 3.50 | 0.92 | 2.58 | 0.67 | 3.16 | 0.58 | 3.18 | 0.60 | 1.89 | 3.67 | 1.78 | 3.33 | 1.44 | 2.61 | 0.72 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 3.26 | 3.15 | -0.11 | 3.26 | -0.07 | 2.75 | -0.51 | 2.95 | -0.31 | 3.24 | 2.86 | -0.38 | 3 | -0.24 | 2.88 | -0.36 |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | 5.98 | 4.93 | -1.05 | 5.98 | -1.14 | 4.79 | -1.19 | 6.71 | 0.73 | 5.16 | 4.28 | -0.88 | 4.22 | -0.94 | 5.01 | -0.15 |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 3.13 | 3.17 | 0.04 | 3.13 | -0.01 | 3.57 | 0.44 | 2.67 | -0.46 | 2.51 | 3.01 | 0.50 | 3.01 | 0.50 | 2.87 | 0.36 |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | 4.72 | 4.49 | -0.23 | 4.72 | -0.23 | 4.94 | 0.22 | 4.57 | -0.15 | 5.28 | 4.36 | -0.92 | 4.22 | -1.06 | 5.63 | 0.35 |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 4.10 | 6.11 | 2.01 | 4.10 | 1.35 | 4.75 | 0.65 | 8.06 | 3.96 | 5.95 | 6.95 | 1.00 | 6.43 | 0.48 | 5.86 | -0.09 |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | 4.76 | 4.20 | -0.56 | 4.76 | -0.67 | 5.26 | 0.50 | 4.85 | 0.09 | 5.33 | 5.11 | -0.22 | 4.91 | -0.42 | 6.08 | 0.75 |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | 5.40 | 3.92 | -1.48 | 5.40 | -1.55 | 4.02 | -1.38 | 3.29 | -2.11 | 6.43 | 3.81 | -2.62 | 3.74 | -2.69 | 4.33 | -2.10 |
| Dennis Santana | Dodgers | ||||||||||||||||
| Walker Lockett | Padres |
Jaime Barria has a .247 BABIP and 85.5 LOB%. However, an increase in strikeout rate could mitigate some of that regression.
Miles Mikolas has a .267 BABIP with a 23.7 LD%, which is questionable, but the defense isn’t that far off and the rest of the contact profile has been in his favor. The 80.2 LOB% seems more of an outlier.
Zack Wheeler has a .331 BABIP and 66 LOB%.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .287 BABIP – 43.1 GB% – 21.1 LD% – 10.1 IFFB% – 86.1 Z-Contact% – 36.5 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 0.325 | 0.333 | 0.008 | 37.8% | 23.8% | 11.3% | 90.7% | 37.7% |
| Austin Pruitt | Rays | 0.269 | 0.219 | -0.050 | 45.5% | 15.2% | 2.6% | 90.3% | 37.5% |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 0.305 | 0.210 | -0.095 | 48.2% | 20.1% | 11.1% | 91.9% | 34.7% |
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | 0.287 | 0.293 | 0.006 | 24.1% | 25.9% | 20.7% | 90.5% | 34.1% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 0.285 | 0.281 | -0.004 | 41.5% | 23.5% | 5.7% | 88.0% | 30.9% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 0.268 | 0.219 | -0.049 | 33.5% | 19.6% | 14.9% | 87.3% | 43.6% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 0.295 | 0.269 | -0.026 | 39.8% | 19.9% | 16.4% | 79.0% | 31.6% |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | 0.302 | 0.295 | -0.007 | 38.7% | 26.0% | 4.9% | 87.1% | 39.2% |
| Clay Buchholz | Diamondbacks | 0.271 | 0.067 | -0.204 | 25.0% | 12.5% | 5.0% | 85.2% | 48.2% |
| Elieser Hernandez | Marlins | 0.292 | 0.310 | 0.018 | 35.6% | 23.7% | 12.5% | 87.6% | 41.7% |
| Frankie Montas | Athletics | 0.280 | 0.214 | -0.066 | 30.8% | 15.4% | 0.0% | 93.3% | 51.2% |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 0.268 | 0.259 | -0.009 | 32.9% | 21.0% | 16.7% | 77.1% | 37.4% |
| Hector Santiago | White Sox | 0.298 | 0.289 | -0.009 | 32.8% | 14.5% | 11.6% | 85.0% | 42.2% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | 0.307 | 0.339 | 0.032 | 30.7% | 29.1% | 15.3% | 87.8% | 34.6% |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | 0.296 | 0.247 | -0.049 | 39.3% | 21.3% | 14.3% | 84.2% | 34.1% |
| Jaime Garcia | Blue Jays | 0.311 | 0.305 | -0.006 | 40.3% | 14.9% | 6.7% | 92.8% | 36.6% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 0.302 | 0.294 | -0.008 | 49.7% | 18.6% | 5.7% | 86.8% | 32.0% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 0.300 | 0.242 | -0.058 | 41.3% | 20.1% | 14.1% | 85.6% | 32.1% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 0.290 | 0.285 | -0.005 | 39.6% | 24.7% | 12.7% | 84.8% | 36.6% |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 0.293 | 0.299 | 0.006 | 48.9% | 20.4% | 4.4% | 92.2% | 31.0% |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 0.286 | 0.267 | -0.019 | 50.0% | 23.7% | 11.5% | 88.6% | 32.4% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 0.295 | 0.303 | 0.008 | 40.4% | 21.2% | 10.7% | 83.7% | 35.4% |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | 0.281 | 0.329 | 0.048 | 44.9% | 23.4% | 14.0% | 90.6% | 36.6% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 0.278 | 0.270 | -0.008 | 43.7% | 23.5% | 5.0% | 84.0% | 34.6% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | 0.299 | 0.281 | -0.018 | 34.0% | 25.2% | 7.7% | 83.8% | 40.0% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 0.267 | 0.295 | 0.028 | 52.4% | 18.3% | 10.8% | 88.5% | 39.2% |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | 0.300 | 0.298 | -0.002 | 37.3% | 25.3% | 8.1% | 82.9% | 38.4% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | 0.307 | 0.331 | 0.024 | 47.6% | 17.7% | 9.8% | 83.7% | 38.3% |
| Dennis Santana | Dodgers | 0.296 | |||||||
| Walker Lockett | Padres | 0.308 |
Jaime Barria has a nice popup rate, but it’s probably not enough to sustain a gap 50 points below his defense.
Zack Wheeler has nothing to support the high BABIP. Quite the opposite in fact, especially when considered with his 86.2 mph aEV.
StatCast Chart
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 0.400 | -0.022 | 0.350 | -0.021 | 0.406 | -0.001 | -1.700 | 89.7 | 11.2 | 41.500 | 188 |
| Austin Pruitt | Rays | 0.332 | -0.049 | 0.336 | 0.003 | 0.301 | -0.041 | -1.700 | 88.4 | 6.0 | 33.000 | 100 |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 0.343 | -0.061 | 0.353 | -0.005 | 0.362 | -0.051 | -2.000 | 89.5 | 6.5 | 40.700 | 199 |
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | 0.264 | 0.025 | 0.378 | 0.019 | 0.264 | 0.025 | -0.300 | 88.8 | 3.3 | 33.300 | 60 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 0.314 | -0.029 | 0.282 | -0.024 | 0.316 | 0.001 | -0.200 | 88.9 | 6.9 | 35.100 | 202 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 0.347 | -0.014 | 0.277 | -0.008 | 0.400 | -0.018 | -1.600 | 85.3 | 7.3 | 27.400 | 164 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 0.272 | -0.008 | 0.249 | 0.002 | 0.288 | -0.023 | -1.100 | 85.4 | 10.1 | 29.000 | 169 |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | 0.381 | -0.042 | 0.389 | -0.032 | 0.417 | -0.016 | -0.100 | 90.7 | 9.2 | 40.200 | 174 |
| Clay Buchholz | Diamondbacks | 0.326 | -0.139 | 0.424 | 0.193 | 0.326 | -0.139 | -0.100 | 90.5 | 12.5 | 40.600 | 32 |
| Elieser Hernandez | Marlins | 0.347 | -0.026 | 0.308 | -0.045 | 0.347 | -0.026 | -0.200 | 90.4 | 3.3 | 41.700 | 60 |
| Frankie Montas | Athletics | 0.229 | -0.054 | 0.414 | -0.007 | 0.229 | -0.054 | -0.900 | ||||
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 0.267 | -0.033 | 0.293 | -0.008 | 0.291 | -0.045 | -0.600 | 87.7 | 6.2 | 40.400 | 146 |
| Hector Santiago | White Sox | 0.373 | -0.008 | 0.373 | -0.026 | 0.421 | -0.027 | -1.300 | 90.5 | 12.2 | 42.000 | 131 |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | 0.376 | -0.022 | 0.387 | -0.030 | 0.370 | 0.023 | 0.000 | 88.7 | 11.3 | 38.200 | 186 |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | 0.345 | -0.065 | 0.355 | -0.122 | 0.359 | -0.088 | -1.200 | 87.7 | 6.7 | 32.600 | 89 |
| Jaime Garcia | Blue Jays | 0.343 | 0.022 | 0.330 | 0.006 | 0.322 | 0.012 | -0.600 | 90.1 | 9.5 | 42.300 | 137 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 0.290 | 0.007 | 0.293 | 0.023 | 0.287 | 0.015 | -0.200 | 87.2 | 4.7 | 32.900 | 170 |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 0.294 | -0.031 | 0.261 | -0.028 | 0.311 | -0.026 | -0.500 | 85.9 | 6.4 | 29.900 | 187 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 0.315 | -0.022 | 0.338 | -0.009 | 0.313 | -0.021 | -0.500 | 88.3 | 7.7 | 32.900 | 155 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 0.396 | -0.060 | 0.343 | -0.015 | 0.334 | -0.038 | -1.800 | 90.4 | 7.7 | 44.100 | 222 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 0.303 | -0.047 | 0.275 | -0.059 | 0.294 | -0.052 | -0.500 | 86 | 7.0 | 29.400 | 201 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 0.318 | -0.046 | 0.359 | 0.006 | 0.300 | -0.039 | 0.100 | 88.6 | 9.3 | 36.000 | 150 |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | 0.369 | -0.018 | 0.304 | -0.005 | 0.355 | -0.028 | -0.200 | 89.5 | 6.8 | 41.000 | 161 |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 0.327 | -0.047 | 0.273 | -0.013 | 0.298 | -0.019 | 0.400 | 89.1 | 9.2 | 40.200 | 184 |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | 0.321 | 0.017 | 0.311 | 0.024 | 0.312 | 0.029 | -0.600 | 86.3 | 4.3 | 28.200 | 163 |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 0.364 | -0.030 | 0.327 | -0.025 | 0.410 | -0.036 | -0.500 | 87.3 | 5.3 | 32.800 | 131 |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | 0.354 | -0.003 | 0.366 | -0.019 | 0.346 | 0.013 | -0.100 | 87.8 | 10.9 | 42.500 | 174 |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | 0.336 | -0.010 | 0.366 | -0.005 | 0.316 | 0.033 | 0.800 | 86.2 | 9.2 | 34.900 | 152 |
| Dennis Santana | Dodgers | |||||||||||
| Walker Lockett | Padres |
Ironic that many of the lowest aEVs on the board have been some of the most home run prone. Not many other surprises here.
Gerrit Cole caution flag #2: a 40.4% 95+ mph EV is not the worst on the board. In fact, there are a stunning number of pitchers (nearly half the board) above 40% tonight. But it’s not a good look. Positive: he’s one of two pitchers above that mark who is also below an 89 mph aEV overall.
Zack Wheeler throws his fastball 94.8 mph and it looks even harder. He’s the only pitcher with an Effective Velocity more than a half mile per hour above his actual on this board.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
There are an extraordinary number of pitchers who seem underpriced by peripherals and/or contact management on one site or another tonight. They may not all have the upside of the top guys and come with more risk, but those top guys aren’t in great spots tonight and value is value.
Value Tier One
Chris Sale (1) costs $11K on either site, which is actually king of low on DraftKings. He has the highest strikeout upside on the slate by a decent margin, considering his team will be facing the other guy with an unreal strikeout rate. It’s not ideal, but the cost accounts for that a bit.
Value Tier Two
Gerrit Cole (2) costs more than Sale in a potentially lower upside spot. That may mean he doesn’t generate double digit strikeouts. It doesn’t mean we shouldn’t expect any or even an above league average rate tonight. There are a couple of reasons for caution, but not even for actual concern at this point. I do have him clearly behind his opponent, but far ahead of anyone else today.
Jameson Taillon (7t) doesn’t foster great expectations, but the numbers suggest that the cost is just much too low. He’s less than $7K on DraftKings (you could drop him down a tier for $1K more on FanDuel) and there’s a 15 K-BB% on either side of the matchup with quality contact management in a negative run environment. The cost should be above $8K. The numbers aren’t much worse than Berrios, who costs more than $1K more in a much tougher matchup. He may not win you a GPP, but there’s value here.
Value Tier Three
Nick Pivetta (6) has a substantial cost differential and is therefore probably not a tier three value on either site. Bump him up one on FanDuel ($8.2K) and down one on FanDuel ($10K) in a decent spot with some upside. Incidentally, the Giants are middle of the road (1.8 wCB) against curveballs.
Carlos Carrasco (4t) has been struggling a bit recently, but is still generating a high amount of swings and misses. He’s probably in a marginal spot in Minnesota tonight and is just the fourth highest priced arm on the board. The changeup isn’t working as well, but perhaps that’s why he’s been throwing a more efficient curve more often (though Brooks, Fangraphs, and Statcast dispute what’s a slider and what’s a curve a bit).
Zack Wheeler (9) surprises even this Mets fan this high on the board in an unideal spot against the Cubs. In fact, the underlying numbers (above average in both strikeout rate and contact management) push him even higher though I had difficulty buying into it. However, he costs just $6K on DraftKings, which is much too low for what he potentially brings to the table. I’m fine dropping him a bit lower for $7K on FanDuel. Can’t wait till he gets jumped for another five spot in the first.
Jaime Barria has a massive price discrepancy ($600 more than any other pitcher) that may pull him off the board on DraftKings ($9.3K), but he’s only $6.8K on FanDuel with some upside in a nice spot.
Miles Mikolas (4t) is a slight pay up for workload and contact management in a good park over strikeouts. It’s not ideal because he may not be able to overcome a rough start, but it’s not terrible at less than $9K at least. Only Cole has averaged more innings per start this year.
Tyler Mahle has some upside in a high upside spot, but his he’s walked four in a start three times this year and has allowed multiple HRs in nearly half (five) of his 11 starts. He costs just $6.1K on FanDuel, but those concerns may drop him a tier for $7.9K on DraftKings. I have trouble trusting guys who throw a 93 mph fastball so much, but at least he properly elevates it.
Stephen Strasburg (3) is just there today. That really feels like the best way to put it. He’s a really good pitcher in a reasonable spot, but nothing seems to scream that you need him in this spot, especially at the highest cost on the board on DraftKings. Perhaps the one thing you can credit him with is more consistency than in previous seasons. If, due to cost, the rest of the daily fantasy world seems to forget about him (as I almost did) on today’s board, his appeal might tick up at low ownership.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Mike Leake is not ideally what we look for here. I mean, a low strikeout pitcher with loud contact rates, but consider the variables. His arsenal matchups up well with the Rays and recent performance has been improved. He’s pitched into the seventh inning in three of four starts with an elite ground ball rate over that span and costs just $4.8K on DraftKings in a great park. He may not do much, but he doesn’t have to at that price.
Jose Berrios (7t) is a fairly high cost arm in a tough spot. What happens when fire meets fire? Both he and the Cleveland offense have been surging in recent games. Minnesota is sneakily one of few positive run environments in play outside Coors tonight.
Elieser Hernandez just has an elite matchup at a near minimum cost, even if his own numbers are not that encouraging.
Austin Pruitt is a near minimum priced pitcher who will garner nearly no ownership because he’s not officially listed as the starter tonight. He’s not going to overwhelm, but will miss the top half of the order in his first pass through and could offer five competent innings in a supporting role for a higher priced arm.
Blaine Hardy could give you five to six competent innings with a league average strikeout rate against a weakened Toronto lineup. The cost is probably a bit higher than anticipated on DraftKings, where I was hoping to see him at least a few hundred less. A bad weather report or umpire assignment could remove him from my thoughts altogether.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.