Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, June 8th
There are a lot of days in the baseball season and some of those days, you just don’t have anything clever to say to introduce a pitching article. Like, maybe, after your dog probably ate something he shouldn’t have in the backyard and kept you up half the night. This might be one of those days.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | -7.7 | 5.10 | 5.5 | 45.3% | 1.04 | 4.97 | 5.08 | Blue Jays | 90 | 94 | 74 |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | -6.8 | 3.39 | 5.4 | 49.2% | 1.01 | 3.40 | 2.27 | Nationals | 92 | 90 | 43 |
| Brandon McCarthy | Braves | 6.4 | 4.43 | 5.1 | 44.1% | 0.90 | 4.22 | 2.95 | Dodgers | 90 | 106 | 165 |
| Caleb Smith | Marlins | -3.3 | 4.06 | 4.8 | 28.4% | 0.88 | 4.02 | 5.00 | Padres | 72 | 95 | 119 |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | -2.2 | 4.60 | 5.2 | 41.1% | 1.01 | 4.49 | 5.05 | Cubs | 110 | 108 | 96 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 4.8 | 2.81 | 6.7 | 39.9% | 1.10 | 2.94 | 3.30 | White Sox | 97 | 88 | 80 |
| Doug Fister | Rangers | -0.9 | 4.68 | 5.5 | 47.1% | 1.15 | 4.07 | 4.61 | Astros | 116 | 104 | 117 |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | -4.3 | 5.22 | 5.1 | 51.8% | 1.10 | 5.89 | 4.11 | Red Sox | 127 | 122 | 122 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | -5.5 | 4.81 | 4.3 | 33.3% | 0.88 | 4.82 | 4.87 | Marlins | 85 | 89 | 106 |
| Frankie Montas | Athletics | 1.4 | 4.42 | 7.0 | 36.4% | 0.96 | 4.98 | 4.27 | Royals | 89 | 87 | 61 |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 6.3 | 3.76 | 4.9 | 53.0% | 1.05 | 4.04 | 4.02 | Twins | 97 | 95 | 129 |
| German Marquez | Rockies | -0.4 | 4.26 | 5.5 | 45.9% | 1.33 | 4.04 | 3.84 | Diamondbacks | 77 | 72 | 112 |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | -3.2 | 3.85 | 5.9 | 44.9% | 1.04 | 3.66 | 3.07 | Orioles | 72 | 85 | 75 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | -0.1 | 3.30 | 6.3 | 44.8% | 0.92 | 2.79 | 2.71 | Yankees | 115 | 117 | 117 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 1.4 | 4.20 | 6.0 | 39.7% | 0.96 | 4.74 | 3.67 | Athletics | 80 | 102 | 128 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 7.3 | 4.68 | 5.4 | 46.5% | 0.97 | 4.69 | 4.51 | Phillies | 106 | 92 | 53 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 9.5 | 3.58 | 6.5 | 32.8% | 1.15 | 3.89 | 3.81 | Rangers | 94 | 84 | 95 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | -4 | 4.86 | 5.5 | 45.8% | 1.05 | 4.72 | 5.39 | Angels | 117 | 110 | 113 |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | -0.2 | 3.68 | 5.1 | 42.2% | 1.01 | 3.35 | 4.25 | Reds | 88 | 90 | 122 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | -4.8 | 4.05 | 5.0 | 46.1% | 0.92 | 3.68 | 4.74 | Rays | 105 | 103 | 58 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 4.6 | 3.66 | 6.0 | 47.0% | 0.92 | 3.98 | 3.20 | Mets | 83 | 102 | 25 |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | -4.8 | 4.92 | 5.0 | 42.4% | 1.01 | 5.27 | 4.28 | Cardinals | 94 | 91 | 73 |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | 1.2 | 4.39 | 6.2 | 48.9% | 1.07 | 4.41 | 6.76 | Indians | 87 | 103 | 82 |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 12.9 | 4.16 | 5.1 | 58.4% | 1.01 | 4.63 | 3.02 | Pirates | 91 | 114 | 73 |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | -6.4 | 3.30 | 6.2 | 43.6% | 1.01 | 3.35 | 2.07 | Giants | 89 | 104 | 126 |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 10.2 | 3.84 | 6.0 | 47.5% | 1.07 | 3.96 | 2.18 | Tigers | 103 | 87 | 77 |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | -4.6 | 3.94 | 5.1 | 38.7% | 0.97 | 3.81 | 2.73 | Brewers | 94 | 97 | 76 |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | -4 | 3.29 | 5.8 | 56.3% | 0.90 | 2.55 | 3.79 | Braves | 111 | 102 | 91 |
| Wilmer Font | Rays | -0.8 | 4.74 | 39.8% | 0.92 | 5.12 | 6.14 | Mariners | 111 | 102 | 96 | |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 6.9 | 3.66 | 6.1 | 44.9% | 1.33 | 3.43 | 4.22 | Rockies | 84 | 74 | 99 |
Brandon McCarthy has had one bad start over his last four. In the other three, he’s allowed four runs over 17.2 innings with 20 strikeouts. Not so coincidentally, he stopped throwing his slider, cut his normal fastball usage and significantly upped his cutters and curveballs at the start of this stretch. He’s a smart guy and must have realized these pitches were getting better results than what he was abandoning (it’s all on Statcast at BaseballSavant). He’s facing his old team today (one of them) and it’s a negative run environment, but they’ve been the hottest bunch in the league over the last week (165 wRC+, 9.1 K-BB%, 19.5 HR/FB).
Caleb Smith has struck out no more than five in four of his last five starts and has completed six innings only four times this year. One of those (7 IP – 1 ER – 4 K) was two starts back against these Padres. It seems we were correct to not be suckered in by a strikeout rate above 30%, which has since dropped below that mark. However, that’s not to suggest he’s been a below average bat misser. He hasn’t been bad at all. And while the Padres are more dangerous against LHP (14.9 HR/FB) and have a surprising 9.7 K-BB% with a 15.2 HR/FB over the last week, they go from negative run environment to a possibly more negative run environment and have just a 72 wRC+ (21.7 K-BB% on the road) along with a 17.5 K-BB% against southpaws. There’s still some upside here.
Chris Sale faces has allowed a HR in six straight starts and 10 runs over his last two. He’s totaled just 14 strikeouts over his last two starts, but has faced just 46 batters. He’s faced just 21 in two of his last four, but continues running pitch counts into the 100s with regularity. He’s faced tough Houston and Atlanta offenses in his last two starts. His numbers still seem to be in line over the last month and his old team, the White Sox, have a split high 27.7 K% vs LHP this year, though that does come with a 16.1 HR/FB that’s second best.
J.A. Happ has four starts of five strikeouts or fewer, but at least eight in each of his other eight. He’s allowed just one HR over his last four starts, but his hard hit rate has been above his season average in three of those four starts, so it would seem to be variance, especially with a 10.6% Barrels/BBE that’s second highest on the board. His strikeout rate seems to teeter on the edge of sustainability and might decrease somewhat, but I think everyone would be happy if he remained above a quarter of batters faced. He’s in a really nice spot against the Orioles (19.6 K-BB% on the road, 15 K-BB% vs LHP, 20.9 K-BB% last seven days).
Jacob deGrom has gone seven innings in four straight starts with 42 strikeouts (114 batters faced). He has a .244 xwOBA (.250 at home since last season) with an 84.3 mph aEV that’s top on the board among those with more than two starts. Sure, the matchup sucks against the Yankees (117 wRC+, 10 BB%, 17 HR/FB vs RHP), but it’s at home, where they lose a DH and still have some strikeouts in that lineup (23.4% vs RHP).
Jhoulys Chacin has managed contact decently for most of the season. Recently, his strikeouts have been up (23% over the last month). He’s in a high upside spot against the Phillies (26.9 K% vs RHP, 28.8 K% last seven days).
Justin Verlander has struck out just 11 of 48 batters in tough starts against Boston and New York (AL). He still has the third highest strikeout rate on the board (31.9%) and the top xwOBA (.231). He also gets the Rangers (26 K% vs RHP), but in a tough park in Texas.
Luke Weaver completed seven innings in back to back starts in the middle of May, but has not otherwise completed six since his third start of the season. Not only that, he’s failed to go beyond five in seven of 12 starts. Everything else is either league average or marginal, including the spot in Cincinnati.
Marco Gonzales has completed six innings in seven of eight starts, missing by just a single out in the one where he didn’t. Unfortunately, strikeouts have been down over the last month, but he’s facing one of the coldest offenses in baseball (22.8 K-BB% last seven days) in one of the more negative run environments in play tonight.
Masahiro Tanaka has allowed nine HRs over his last five starts and has just a 20.5 K% over the last month. However, he’s pitched in very few negative run or power environments this season and his SwStr rate (14.1%) remains exactly the same as his season rate over the last 30 days. He’s also facing the coldest offense in baseball. The peripherals for the Mets haven’t been bad, but perhaps in his case, their 4.1 HR/FB over the last week is more important.
Stephen Strasburg has been remarkably consistent if not completely overwhelming this year. He struck out at least 10 for the third time in his last outing and has a strikeout rate just below 30%. He’s failed to go beyond six innings in just three starts this year. The contact profile is not ideal (89 mph aEV, 9.0% Barrels/BBE) and probably what’s led to the ERA above three, just a bit above estimators. The Giants aren’t a very favorable matchup in a neutral park, but there is quite a bit of upside in their 17.9 K-BB% vs RHP and they’ve actually struggled on the road.
Trevor Bauer has a lot of numbers remarkably similar to Strasburg above, though with a bit more variance. He allowed seven runs in his last start (three earned), but struck out 11. It was the third time in four starts he’s had double digit strikeouts. He’s gone beyond the sixth inning in seven of 12 starts. While the matchup is decent from a run prevention standpoint against an offense that doesn’t walk (6.9% vs RHP) or hit for power (7.6 HR/FB vs RHP), it’s in a positive run environment and they don’t strike out much (20.8% vs RHP).
Vince Velasquez has allowed a total of five runs over his last four starts and has struck out nine or more in three of his last five. He’s also walked more than two just twice this year. In fact, his 35 K% over the last month is third best on this board. His .279 xwOBA this year is five points behind Sale. The Brewers have power (15.7 HR/FB vs RHP), but the overall matchup is not even that bad and has some upside (16.2 K-BB% vs RHP).
Walker Buehler struck out just two in his last start in Colorado, but over the last month, his K% has come more in line with a rising SwStr%, which is not unexpected given his minor league numbers. His .256 xwOBA is behind only deGrom and Verlander among those who have made more than two starts. The Dodgers are still holding him below 100 pitches, but he had consistently reached 90 or better in six straight starts before Coors. The Braves have just an 11.4 K-BB% vs RHP, but without a ton of power and are in a negative run environment tonight.
Zack Greinke has struck out a bit more than a quarter of the batters he’s faced, which has kept his ERA around his FIP at 3.44, a bit above his SIERA and xFIP due to a high rate of hard contact (10.4% Barrels/BBE). That’s certainly not ideal at Coors, but it’s no longer a death trap for RHPs against this offense (74 wRC+, 23.2 K%, 9.7 Hard-Soft% vs RHP). I’d merely consider it an unfavorable matchup rather than a terrible one.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.288 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Dylan Covey (.324 – 65.6% – 0.0) has increased his strikeout rate by more than 50% since last year and his SwStr% almost two points. That said, the HRs will come and he has the worst park adjusted matchup on the board tonight.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Andrew Suarez threw seven shutout innings at the Phillies last time out. He’s struck out between five and seven batters in all but one start this season and has an ERA a run or more above his estimators. Meanwhile, he’s facing one of the coldest offenses in baseball with a 27.5 K% over the last week that’s second worst in baseball. However, the 23.5 K% does not appear to be real with a 7.3 SwStr%, which would raise his estimators and he’s allowed 13 ERs in 18.1 IP away from San Francisco this year, though most (or even all) of his road starts were in tough spots. He’s a borderline candidate at a low cost tonight.
Frankie Montas threw eight shutout innings at the Royals last time out, but struck out just two. They don’t walk and don’t have much power, but they rarely strike out. Paying $8K with this lack of upside and some uncertainty about his workload is too much of a concern.
Jakob Junis can miss bats at a decent rate, but perhaps not enough above average to make him worth the risk with a 39.1 GB% and 9.7% Barrels/BBE for more than $8K. Although, eight of his 12 HRs have come in two starts and it’s an overall park upgrade, but the A’s just hit the ball hard (split highs 27.3 Hard-Soft% at home, 26.6 Hard-Soft% vs RHP).
Garrett Richards struck out nine Texas Rangers in his last start, but prior to that, he’d allowed at least three runs with four strikeouts or less in five of six starts. Only 33 of his 46 runs have been earned this year (not necessarily a good projector for pitchers). He’s completed six innings in just four of 12 starts this year and has a 90.1 mph aEV. He still certainly has the upside, as just proven in his last start, but the red flags start to build up and it’s not really a great spot in Minnesota.
Eric Lauer is this high on the board merely due to matchup. He has an ERA not far below seven and although the estimators are much lower, they’re still around five and that’s assuming his strikeout rate is real, which it does not appear to be.
Wilmer Font is considered the “opener” for the Rays tonight. He’ll be making his first major league start against the Mariners. Usually, in these situations, I’ve listed the pitcher expected to throw the most innings and that may be Matt Andriese in this case, but Font has been a started 25 games at AAA last season and has gone multiple innings in half his relief appearances this year, including beyond 70 pitches twice. I’m not so sure he doesn’t last a few innings, which may be more a word of caution on considering Andriese against a good offense than anything else.
German Marquez is not in a terrible spot against the Diamondbacks, but Coors still probably makes it an unfavorable one.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 16.3% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 16.6% | Season | 19.3% | 10.6% | 13.9% | 17.2% | Road | 14.6% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 12.1% | L14Days | 14.8% | 9.3% | 14.6% | |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | L2 Yrs | 23.5% | 4.5% | 18.4% | 23.4% | Season | 23.5% | 4.5% | 18.4% | 23.4% | Road | 23.5% | 7.1% | 20.0% | 29.3% | L14Days | 25.5% | 2.1% | 16.7% | 6.1% |
| Brandon McCarthy | Braves | L2 Yrs | 20.2% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 10.6% | Season | 18.8% | 6.9% | 18.8% | 15.6% | Road | 16.7% | 7.7% | 13.8% | 1.4% | L14Days | 19.2% | 22.2% | 39.4% | |
| Caleb Smith | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 27.4% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 18.0% | Season | 29.6% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 19.7% | Home | 28.5% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 31.0% | L14Days | 20.0% | 6.7% | 15.0% | 3.1% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 20.4% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 18.1% | Season | 22.0% | 8.7% | 16.0% | 21.5% | Road | 21.0% | 9.8% | 14.4% | 22.7% | L14Days | 20.0% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 24.2% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 32.7% | 5.2% | 13.1% | 12.2% | Season | 34.0% | 6.5% | 13.3% | -2.1% | Home | 33.4% | 6.2% | 15.2% | 8.0% | L14Days | 30.4% | 8.7% | 20.0% | -3.6% |
| Doug Fister | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 16.9% | 8.0% | 12.5% | 14.9% | Season | 14.2% | 6.3% | 18.5% | 20.8% | Home | 19.4% | 8.6% | 17.9% | 26.8% | L14Days | 6.3% | 2.1% | 10.0% | 11.6% |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 15.2% | 10.8% | 21.1% | 18.6% | Season | 21.2% | 10.1% | 19.1% | Road | 9.2% | 10.8% | 23.0% | 22.9% | L14Days | 23.3% | 14.0% | 18.5% | ||
| Eric Lauer | Padres | L2 Yrs | 19.1% | 10.1% | 15.6% | 33.7% | Season | 19.1% | 10.1% | 15.6% | 33.7% | Road | 22.0% | 12.1% | 8.3% | 30.0% | L14Days | 19.4% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 36.0% |
| Frankie Montas | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 22.0% | 10.7% | 19.2% | 19.6% | Season | 17.0% | 3.8% | 27.5% | Home | 25.2% | 10.7% | 16.7% | 20.6% | L14Days | 17.0% | 3.8% | 27.5% | ||
| Garrett Richards | Angels | L2 Yrs | 26.3% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 13.4% | Season | 26.9% | 11.3% | 14.9% | 18.3% | Road | 23.5% | 12.8% | 8.6% | 16.0% | L14Days | 31.6% | 15.8% | 10.0% | |
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 20.7% | 7.6% | 14.8% | 15.7% | Season | 21.8% | 9.5% | 12.7% | 13.1% | Home | 21.7% | 7.3% | 19.0% | 16.4% | L14Days | 25.9% | 9.3% | 14.3% | 14.2% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 24.3% | 7.3% | 12.7% | 9.0% | Season | 30.0% | 6.9% | 14.9% | 8.3% | Home | 24.5% | 7.6% | 15.4% | 13.2% | L14Days | 32.0% | 8.0% | 7.7% | -3.3% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Yrs | 28.9% | 6.7% | 13.8% | 8.4% | Season | 33.9% | 7.3% | 6.1% | -3.0% | Home | 33.4% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 6.0% | L14Days | 36.2% | 8.6% | 11.1% | -9.3% |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | L2 Yrs | 20.6% | 5.9% | 12.7% | 19.8% | Season | 22.8% | 5.8% | 13.2% | 19.8% | Road | 18.9% | 5.4% | 10.6% | 17.8% | L14Days | 27.1% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 27.8% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 19.0% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 12.2% | Season | 17.2% | 10.0% | 6.6% | 22.0% | Road | 18.0% | 9.6% | 13.5% | 14.2% | L14Days | 16.7% | 4.2% | 32.5% | |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | L2 Yrs | 28.0% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 11.8% | Season | 31.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.5% | Road | 27.6% | 7.5% | 11.4% | 13.1% | L14Days | 22.9% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | L2 Yrs | 20.1% | 11.2% | 14.2% | 11.9% | Season | 21.3% | 14.7% | 14.0% | 24.5% | Home | 19.8% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 7.4% | L14Days | 19.2% | 15.4% | 45.4% | |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 25.4% | 7.2% | 14.6% | 11.0% | Season | 21.5% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 12.3% | Road | 25.9% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 7.0% | L14Days | 18.9% | 5.4% | 18.2% | 53.5% |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 19.7% | 6.1% | 13.7% | 11.9% | Season | 21.4% | 6.2% | 10.0% | 16.3% | Road | 19.8% | 6.9% | 15.9% | 18.3% | L14Days | 20.0% | 12.0% | 9.1% | |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 23.7% | 5.3% | 18.1% | 14.1% | Season | 23.4% | 6.5% | 21.4% | 15.1% | Road | 22.4% | 6.4% | 23.6% | 14.6% | L14Days | 31.9% | 8.5% | 26.7% | 21.5% |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | L2 Yrs | 16.8% | 8.9% | 16.8% | 13.7% | Season | 17.2% | 6.2% | 17.2% | 26.0% | Home | 17.1% | 10.4% | 20.8% | 13.4% | L14Days | 14.3% | 6.1% | 22.2% | 20.5% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 17.9% | 6.7% | 10.4% | 14.2% | Season | 19.4% | 9.5% | 14.8% | 24.9% | Home | 15.7% | 6.6% | 10.8% | 22.7% | L14Days | 9.5% | 16.7% | 30.0% | 45.1% |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 19.4% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 6.9% | Season | 15.9% | 7.3% | 10.0% | -4.4% | Home | 15.7% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 5.6% | L14Days | 22.0% | 2.4% | 10.0% | 9.6% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 29.3% | 6.8% | 10.9% | 7.8% | Season | 29.3% | 6.0% | 17.5% | 12.9% | Home | 28.4% | 6.3% | 12.5% | 8.9% | L14Days | 37.5% | 4.2% | 14.3% | 29.6% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Yrs | 24.9% | 8.3% | 12.8% | 17.3% | Season | 29.6% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 24.7% | Road | 27.3% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 18.9% | L14Days | 42.9% | 8.9% | 16.7% | 44.5% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 25.7% | 9.0% | 17.3% | 19.4% | Season | 29.2% | 8.1% | 12.9% | 13.0% | Home | 28.6% | 8.9% | 23.3% | 16.7% | L14Days | 32.6% | 6.5% | 14.2% | |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 27.2% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 8.3% | Season | 27.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 9.9% | Home | 28.7% | 5.6% | 11.8% | 5.7% | L14Days | 20.4% | 4.1% | 2.8% | |
| Wilmer Font | Rays | L2 Yrs | 15.9% | 9.1% | 30.2% | 32.6% | Season | 16.4% | 7.3% | 30.6% | 33.8% | Home | 16.7% | 5.6% | 41.2% | 35.7% | L14Days | 8.0% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 31.6% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 24.8% | 5.8% | 14.1% | 17.5% | Season | 26.6% | 3.8% | 14.9% | 28.8% | Road | 25.0% | 5.7% | 16.7% | 11.2% | L14Days | 21.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 40.6% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Jays | Home | 24.0% | 9.0% | 13.4% | 16.3% | RH | 24.3% | 9.7% | 13.5% | 18.0% | L7Days | 19.1% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 18.7% |
| Nationals | Home | 21.9% | 10.0% | 14.5% | 11.2% | LH | 22.3% | 9.4% | 13.3% | 15.7% | L7Days | 27.5% | 5.8% | 10.8% | 8.0% |
| Dodgers | Home | 23.1% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 12.1% | RH | 21.9% | 9.0% | 13.0% | 15.8% | L7Days | 20.3% | 11.2% | 19.5% | 15.3% |
| Padres | Road | 27.6% | 5.9% | 12.4% | 10.7% | LH | 25.3% | 7.8% | 14.9% | 16.4% | L7Days | 19.8% | 10.1% | 15.2% | 14.7% |
| Cubs | Home | 19.4% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 9.7% | RH | 20.7% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 12.0% | L7Days | 24.6% | 9.3% | 8.5% | -2.5% |
| White Sox | Road | 24.0% | 7.0% | 14.8% | 19.8% | LH | 27.7% | 8.5% | 16.1% | 16.7% | L7Days | 24.1% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 16.7% |
| Astros | Road | 21.4% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 19.9% | RH | 22.1% | 9.2% | 12.5% | 15.6% | L7Days | 18.6% | 8.1% | 12.5% | 11.2% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.6% | 8.5% | 14.6% | 16.0% | RH | 18.8% | 8.2% | 15.7% | 19.9% | L7Days | 22.6% | 8.0% | 21.6% | 24.1% |
| Marlins | Home | 21.7% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 11.8% | LH | 20.7% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.2% | L7Days | 22.1% | 8.1% | 12.0% | 38.9% |
| Royals | Road | 19.2% | 6.8% | 10.4% | 17.5% | RH | 18.0% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 22.7% | L7Days | 20.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 27.7% |
| Twins | Home | 21.8% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 21.5% | RH | 21.8% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 22.4% | L7Days | 19.2% | 11.0% | 13.4% | 24.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 26.1% | 8.9% | 13.2% | 15.6% | RH | 25.1% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 17.0% | L7Days | 20.7% | 11.0% | 16.4% | 29.3% |
| Orioles | Road | 26.8% | 7.2% | 11.0% | 13.7% | LH | 23.1% | 8.3% | 11.8% | 13.0% | L7Days | 26.9% | 6.0% | 13.7% | 9.4% |
| Yankees | Road | 23.6% | 7.8% | 17.2% | 17.7% | RH | 23.4% | 10.0% | 17.0% | 18.5% | L7Days | 24.1% | 7.6% | 17.7% | 17.0% |
| Athletics | Home | 23.4% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 27.3% | RH | 22.9% | 8.8% | 13.5% | 26.6% | L7Days | 17.8% | 7.2% | 14.1% | 40.8% |
| Phillies | Home | 24.5% | 10.8% | 14.5% | 10.5% | RH | 26.9% | 9.9% | 13.3% | 8.3% | L7Days | 28.8% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 9.0% |
| Rangers | Home | 25.0% | 10.5% | 16.0% | 23.9% | RH | 26.0% | 8.9% | 14.1% | 20.4% | L7Days | 23.7% | 12.8% | 17.5% | 31.7% |
| Angels | Road | 18.1% | 8.8% | 12.8% | 17.9% | RH | 20.0% | 8.5% | 13.0% | 20.6% | L7Days | 18.4% | 6.6% | 12.5% | 22.3% |
| Reds | Home | 23.5% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 20.0% | RH | 21.2% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 17.6% | L7Days | 21.4% | 8.7% | 12.5% | 31.2% |
| Rays | Home | 21.9% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 18.0% | LH | 24.0% | 8.6% | 12.4% | 16.2% | L7Days | 26.4% | 3.6% | 9.8% | 11.4% |
| Mets | Home | 22.4% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 11.2% | RH | 20.5% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 16.8% | L7Days | 22.8% | 10.4% | 4.1% | 16.4% |
| Cardinals | Road | 25.1% | 8.8% | 17.3% | 16.3% | RH | 22.7% | 7.9% | 12.9% | 19.5% | L7Days | 18.3% | 5.8% | 10.0% | 33.8% |
| Indians | Road | 23.0% | 8.1% | 13.6% | 16.4% | RH | 22.8% | 8.5% | 15.7% | 24.7% | L7Days | 24.2% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 35.0% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.5% | 7.5% | 12.5% | 15.2% | LH | 20.0% | 9.9% | 13.3% | 8.8% | L7Days | 20.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 15.2% |
| Giants | Road | 25.9% | 7.6% | 11.4% | 18.1% | RH | 25.0% | 7.1% | 11.6% | 20.8% | L7Days | 24.5% | 6.4% | 16.3% | 17.4% |
| Tigers | Home | 18.9% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 24.9% | RH | 20.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 19.7% | L7Days | 23.1% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 14.1% |
| Brewers | Road | 21.9% | 7.7% | 15.1% | 13.2% | RH | 24.6% | 8.4% | 15.7% | 18.2% | L7Days | 25.6% | 7.8% | 15.0% | 11.6% |
| Braves | Road | 20.5% | 8.8% | 13.9% | 16.7% | RH | 20.6% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 19.0% | L7Days | 21.7% | 5.8% | 14.0% | 26.4% |
| Mariners | Road | 18.6% | 8.1% | 13.4% | 21.7% | RH | 20.1% | 7.0% | 14.0% | 16.0% | L7Days | 24.0% | 6.6% | 22.2% | 3.9% |
| Rockies | Home | 22.9% | 8.5% | 16.7% | 10.9% | RH | 23.2% | 8.8% | 14.0% | 9.7% | L7Days | 20.1% | 7.5% | 11.1% | 20.6% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.7 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.15 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 19.3% | 7.6% | 2.54 | 16.4% | 8.0% | 2.05 |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | 23.5% | 7.3% | 3.22 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.97 |
| Brandon McCarthy | Braves | 18.8% | 6.6% | 2.85 | 20.8% | 7.4% | 2.81 |
| Caleb Smith | Marlins | 29.6% | 11.8% | 2.51 | 24.1% | 11.0% | 2.19 |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | 22.0% | 9.1% | 2.42 | 22.3% | 9.4% | 2.37 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 34.0% | 15.4% | 2.21 | 36.4% | 14.4% | 2.53 |
| Doug Fister | Rangers | 14.2% | 5.2% | 2.73 | 10.4% | 4.4% | 2.36 |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | 21.2% | 8.1% | 2.62 | 25.0% | 9.3% | 2.69 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 19.1% | 6.2% | 3.08 | 17.4% | 5.5% | 3.16 |
| Frankie Montas | Athletics | 17.0% | 7.2% | 2.36 | 17.0% | 7.2% | 2.36 |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 26.9% | 11.7% | 2.30 | 22.4% | 11.8% | 1.90 |
| German Marquez | Rockies | 21.8% | 9.7% | 2.25 | 20.8% | 10.5% | 1.98 |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | 30.0% | 11.2% | 2.68 | 28.6% | 10.4% | 2.75 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 33.9% | 15.6% | 2.17 | 36.7% | 16.1% | 2.28 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.26 | 25.6% | 11.0% | 2.33 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 17.2% | 8.7% | 1.98 | 23.0% | 10.9% | 2.11 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 31.9% | 13.0% | 2.45 | 27.0% | 10.9% | 2.48 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 21.3% | 9.3% | 2.29 | 18.8% | 6.6% | 2.85 |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | 21.5% | 9.4% | 2.29 | 22.7% | 9.9% | 2.29 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 21.4% | 8.0% | 2.68 | 16.5% | 6.9% | 2.39 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 23.4% | 14.1% | 1.66 | 20.5% | 14.1% | 1.45 |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | 17.2% | 7.8% | 2.21 | 18.3% | 7.4% | 2.47 |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | 19.4% | 10.7% | 1.81 | 18.9% | 9.9% | 1.91 |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 15.9% | 10.0% | 1.59 | 20.7% | 10.5% | 1.97 |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 29.3% | 11.7% | 2.50 | 33.0% | 10.9% | 3.03 |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 29.6% | 12.8% | 2.31 | 31.9% | 13.8% | 2.31 |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | 29.2% | 11.9% | 2.45 | 35.0% | 13.9% | 2.52 |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 27.2% | 9.4% | 2.89 | 25.6% | 10.7% | 2.39 |
| Wilmer Font | Rays | 16.4% | 9.9% | 1.66 | 11.1% | 9.0% | 1.23 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 26.6% | 11.9% | 2.24 | 25.2% | 11.1% | 2.27 |
Brandon McCarthy has a sub-7.5 K-BB% in each of his last three starts, so the improvement isn’t entirely real. Both his new favorite toys, the curve and cutter, have Whiff rates between 15-20%, which is…okay?
Caleb Smith is now in line with his SwStr%. I’m more apt to trust his rate over the last month.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.18 ERA – 4.16 SIERA – 4.12 xFIP – 4.22 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 5.02 | 4.80 | -0.22 | 5.02 | -0.23 | 5.02 | 0.00 | 6.87 | 1.85 | 5.20 | 5.02 | -0.18 | 4.65 | -0.55 | 3.95 | -1.25 |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | 4.74 | 3.39 | -1.35 | 4.74 | -1.52 | 3.89 | -0.85 | 4.07 | -0.67 | 5.88 | 3.72 | -2.16 | 3.39 | -2.49 | 4.08 | -1.80 |
| Brandon McCarthy | Braves | 4.83 | 3.99 | -0.84 | 4.83 | -1.23 | 4.22 | -0.61 | 3.92 | -0.91 | 4.82 | 3.55 | -1.27 | 3.25 | -1.57 | 3.83 | -0.99 |
| Caleb Smith | Marlins | 4.03 | 3.80 | -0.23 | 4.03 | 0.01 | 3.61 | -0.42 | 3.50 | -0.53 | 4.50 | 4.42 | -0.08 | 4.74 | 0.24 | 4.00 | -0.50 |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | 3.86 | 4.25 | 0.39 | 3.86 | 0.43 | 4.80 | 0.94 | 4.48 | 0.62 | 3.49 | 4.51 | 1.02 | 4.64 | 1.15 | 4.99 | 1.50 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 3.00 | 2.70 | -0.30 | 3.00 | -0.10 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 2.39 | -0.61 | 4.50 | 2.62 | -1.88 | 2.78 | -1.72 | 3.24 | -1.26 |
| Doug Fister | Rangers | 4.13 | 4.52 | 0.39 | 4.13 | 0.30 | 5.13 | 1.00 | 7.90 | 3.77 | 4.25 | 4.78 | 0.53 | 4.75 | 0.50 | 5.58 | 1.33 |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | 2.82 | 3.85 | 1.03 | 2.82 | 0.77 | 2.58 | -0.24 | 7.13 | 4.31 | 1.65 | 3.32 | 1.67 | 3.09 | 1.44 | 2.20 | 0.55 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 6.82 | 4.80 | -2.02 | 6.82 | -1.96 | 5.39 | -1.43 | 5.94 | -0.88 | 7.52 | 5.15 | -2.37 | 5.31 | -2.21 | 6.75 | -0.77 |
| Frankie Montas | Athletics | 0.64 | 4.27 | 3.63 | 0.64 | 3.67 | 2.69 | 2.05 | 7.25 | 6.61 | 0.64 | 4.27 | 3.63 | 4.31 | 3.67 | 2.69 | 2.05 |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 3.25 | 3.85 | 0.60 | 3.25 | 0.33 | 3.82 | 0.57 | 4.59 | 1.34 | 2.36 | 4.04 | 1.68 | 3.85 | 1.49 | 3.79 | 1.43 |
| German Marquez | Rockies | 4.38 | 4.27 | -0.11 | 4.38 | -0.15 | 4.26 | -0.12 | 3.73 | -0.65 | 3.94 | 4.31 | 0.37 | 4.47 | 0.53 | 4.80 | 0.86 |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | 4.08 | 3.09 | -0.99 | 4.08 | -0.91 | 3.47 | -0.61 | 3.67 | -0.41 | 4.66 | 3.34 | -1.32 | 3.43 | -1.23 | 3.05 | -1.61 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 1.49 | 2.74 | 1.25 | 1.49 | 1.01 | 1.94 | 0.45 | 1.95 | 0.46 | 0.93 | 2.64 | 1.71 | 2.44 | 1.51 | 1.77 | 0.84 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 3.62 | 3.82 | 0.20 | 3.62 | 0.49 | 4.23 | 0.61 | 4.92 | 1.30 | 4.30 | 3.62 | -0.68 | 3.87 | -0.43 | 2.88 | -1.42 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 3.39 | 4.95 | 1.56 | 3.39 | 1.45 | 4.00 | 0.61 | 5.37 | 1.98 | 2.45 | 4.14 | 1.69 | 4.07 | 1.62 | 2.91 | 0.46 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 1.24 | 2.95 | 1.71 | 1.24 | 2.26 | 2.20 | 0.96 | 1.76 | 0.52 | 1.34 | 3.36 | 2.02 | 3.69 | 2.35 | 2.11 | 0.77 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 5.46 | 4.92 | -0.54 | 5.46 | -0.92 | 4.69 | -0.77 | 7.74 | 2.28 | 3.42 | 4.83 | 1.41 | 4.55 | 1.13 | 3.88 | 0.46 |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | 4.41 | 4.11 | -0.30 | 4.41 | -0.36 | 3.75 | -0.66 | 3.49 | -0.92 | 2.89 | 3.63 | 0.74 | 3.49 | 0.60 | 4.19 | 1.30 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 3.38 | 3.76 | 0.38 | 3.38 | 0.08 | 3.22 | -0.16 | 3.43 | 0.05 | 1.41 | 4.56 | 3.15 | 4.29 | 2.88 | 3.43 | 2.02 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 4.79 | 3.75 | -1.04 | 4.79 | -0.94 | 5.05 | 0.26 | 4.62 | -0.17 | 5.40 | 4.34 | -1.06 | 4.33 | -1.07 | 7.02 | 1.62 |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | 5.79 | 4.40 | -1.39 | 5.79 | -1.49 | 5.01 | -0.78 | 4.86 | -0.93 | 4.44 | 4.19 | -0.25 | 4.1 | -0.34 | 4.31 | -0.13 |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | 4.73 | 4.48 | -0.25 | 4.73 | -0.39 | 4.62 | -0.11 | 5.15 | 0.42 | 6.66 | 5.16 | -1.50 | 5.12 | -1.54 | 5.88 | -0.78 |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 3.89 | 3.88 | -0.01 | 3.89 | 0.21 | 3.85 | -0.04 | 3.51 | -0.38 | 3.48 | 3.44 | -0.04 | 3.62 | 0.14 | 3.31 | -0.17 |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 3.20 | 3.02 | -0.18 | 3.20 | -0.27 | 3.45 | 0.25 | 2.51 | -0.69 | 2.52 | 2.81 | 0.29 | 2.84 | 0.32 | 3.04 | 0.52 |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 2.77 | 3.31 | 0.54 | 2.77 | 0.52 | 2.69 | -0.08 | 2.86 | 0.09 | 3.13 | 2.85 | -0.28 | 2.63 | -0.50 | 2.07 | -1.06 |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | 3.82 | 3.37 | -0.45 | 3.82 | -0.32 | 3.56 | -0.26 | 2.72 | -1.10 | 2.20 | 2.71 | 0.51 | 2.67 | 0.47 | 2.56 | 0.36 |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 2.74 | 3.07 | 0.33 | 2.74 | 0.21 | 2.35 | -0.39 | 3.40 | 0.66 | 3.60 | 3.04 | -0.56 | 3.05 | -0.55 | 2.52 | -1.08 |
| Wilmer Font | Rays | 9.78 | 4.39 | -5.39 | 9.78 | -4.52 | 8.94 | -0.84 | 6.66 | -3.12 | 4.50 | 6.05 | 1.55 | 7 | 2.50 | 7.62 | 3.12 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 3.44 | 3.14 | -0.30 | 3.44 | -0.29 | 3.47 | 0.03 | 1.82 | -1.62 | 2.56 | 3.36 | 0.80 | 3.37 | 0.81 | 3.27 | 0.71 |
Brandon McCarthy has a .342 BABIP (more below) and 18.8 HR/FB. The contact does not appear to be that poor (5.9% Barrels/BBE) and he has a solid 51.2 GB%, which makes the HR rate seem a fluke.
J.A. Happ has a 71 LOB%, which isn’t far off the league average, but would seem a bit low for his strikeout rate.
Jacob deGrom has an 88.1 LOB% and 6.1 HR/FB. One could also argue that his BABIP is too high though. The line drive rate is weird with the lack of hard contact and already generated 12 popups.
Jhoulys Chacin has a .265 BABIP and 6.6 HR/FB. The BABIP is fairly in line with team and career rates. While he does manage contact decently, the HR rate is too low.
Marco Gonzales has an 85.1 LOB% and 4.0 HR/FB over the last month.
Masahiro Tanaka has a .250 BABIP and 21.4 HR/FB. You’d think those things would balance out, but they don’t. One could even argue his 71.4 LOB% is too low for his SwStr%, but his actual strikeout rate would have to uptick first.
Trevor Bauer has a 7.2 HR/FB. His career rate is more than 50% higher, but he is facing the Tigers tonight.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.1 LD% – 10.3 IFFB% – 86.3 Z-Contact% – 36.5 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 0.324 | 0.342 | 0.018 | 38.2% | 23.7% | 10.1% | 90.4% | 36.1% |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | 0.300 | 0.314 | 0.014 | 49.2% | 20.2% | 7.9% | 91.1% | 37.3% |
| Brandon McCarthy | Braves | 0.284 | 0.342 | 0.058 | 51.2% | 24.9% | 0.0% | 91.1% | 38.5% |
| Caleb Smith | Marlins | 0.291 | 0.264 | -0.027 | 28.7% | 21.0% | 19.4% | 81.9% | 40.3% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | 0.296 | 0.284 | -0.012 | 35.4% | 24.9% | 6.7% | 85.6% | 40.6% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 0.290 | 0.271 | -0.019 | 39.1% | 20.1% | 17.3% | 79.2% | 31.2% |
| Doug Fister | Rangers | 0.301 | 0.289 | -0.012 | 50.2% | 23.7% | 14.8% | 91.7% | 30.8% |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | 0.293 | 0.324 | 0.031 | 63.2% | 16.2% | 0.0% | 92.0% | 35.7% |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 0.309 | 0.393 | 0.084 | 33.3% | 27.2% | 2.2% | 86.9% | 45.2% |
| Frankie Montas | Athletics | 0.274 | 0.250 | -0.024 | 38.5% | 25.6% | 0.0% | 91.0% | 50.3% |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 0.293 | 0.258 | -0.035 | 52.5% | 17.7% | 14.9% | 86.3% | 31.6% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | 0.306 | 0.317 | 0.011 | 44.1% | 22.3% | 7.9% | 87.4% | 41.9% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | 0.307 | 0.294 | -0.013 | 46.9% | 15.6% | 16.4% | 82.6% | 40.4% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 0.312 | 0.311 | -0.001 | 42.0% | 27.8% | 24.5% | 76.5% | 32.9% |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 0.311 | 0.263 | -0.048 | 39.1% | 18.6% | 11.0% | 89.1% | 29.4% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 0.270 | 0.265 | -0.005 | 40.9% | 21.7% | 11.8% | 90.0% | 35.6% |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 0.271 | 0.209 | -0.062 | 29.1% | 15.6% | 13.6% | 80.0% | 32.6% |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 0.297 | 0.344 | 0.047 | 51.5% | 22.1% | 7.0% | 87.9% | 42.9% |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | 0.284 | 0.289 | 0.005 | 42.3% | 20.3% | 17.6% | 86.1% | 39.6% |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 0.295 | 0.339 | 0.044 | 46.7% | 27.7% | 6.0% | 86.3% | 31.3% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 0.275 | 0.250 | -0.025 | 44.9% | 17.6% | 12.9% | 82.4% | 31.4% |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | 0.304 | 0.301 | -0.003 | 41.7% | 23.8% | 10.3% | 88.4% | 45.7% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | 0.285 | 0.287 | 0.002 | 47.9% | 20.3% | 8.2% | 86.5% | 34.2% |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 0.263 | 0.250 | -0.013 | 63.4% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 85.8% | 28.8% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 0.274 | 0.279 | 0.005 | 45.0% | 23.5% | 4.8% | 83.4% | 33.9% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 0.288 | 0.299 | 0.011 | 46.7% | 18.3% | 11.6% | 85.8% | 33.6% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | 0.295 | 0.319 | 0.024 | 38.4% | 18.9% | 10.0% | 79.8% | 39.5% |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 0.299 | 0.286 | -0.013 | 54.2% | 18.3% | 9.1% | 87.7% | 39.6% |
| Wilmer Font | Rays | 0.274 | 0.319 | 0.045 | 42.2% | 14.5% | 8.3% | 88.1% | 39.1% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 0.275 | 0.288 | 0.013 | 41.1% | 22.3% | 14.9% | 82.7% | 28.9% |
Brandon McCarthy is a ground ball pitcher with a high line drive rate, few swings and misses at strikes and not a single IFFB yet. Unlike the HR rate, I’d have a difficult time arguing that this is much of a fluke, though the lack of hard contact still suggests he’d be in line for some improvement.
Caleb Smith gets a ton of popups (14 so far!!). I’d have a hard time arguing this BABIP and it doesn’t even affect his estimators much.
An interesting thing to see is that three pitchers today, all previous All-Stars, combine an elite Z-Contact% with an elite Z-O-Swing%. All three also have a low line drive rate. Two of them have BABIPs below their defense.
Masahiro Tanaka has a dominant BABIP profile and the infield defense has improved (Torres).
StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .315 wOBA)
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 0.393 | -0.015 | 0.353 | -0.033 | 0.390 | 0.011 | -1.700 | 89.4 | 10.5 | 40.000 | 210 |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | 0.352 | -0.023 | 0.398 | 0.006 | 0.364 | -0.019 | -1.800 | 87.6 | 9.4 | 32.000 | 128 |
| Brandon McCarthy | Braves | 0.332 | 0.016 | 0.326 | 0.008 | 0.337 | 0.039 | -1.100 | 88.2 | 5.9 | 34.600 | 205 |
| Caleb Smith | Marlins | 0.315 | -0.033 | 0.330 | -0.040 | 0.312 | -0.032 | -2.200 | 87.2 | 8.8 | 34.700 | 147 |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | 0.377 | -0.046 | 0.354 | -0.012 | 0.329 | -0.041 | -0.500 | 89 | 9.2 | 37.400 | 195 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 0.274 | -0.008 | 0.274 | 0.002 | 0.280 | -0.011 | -1.200 | 85.3 | 9.6 | 28.900 | 187 |
| Doug Fister | Rangers | 0.371 | -0.033 | 0.342 | -0.002 | 0.359 | -0.017 | -0.100 | 87.3 | 7.7 | 41.100 | 207 |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | 0.298 | -0.022 | 0.429 | 0.000 | 0.269 | -0.014 | -0.700 | 89.9 | 2.9 | 38.200 | 68 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 0.371 | 0.042 | 0.355 | 0.021 | 0.357 | 0.053 | -0.600 | 89.2 | 7.6 | 32.800 | 119 |
| Frankie Montas | Athletics | 0.233 | -0.001 | 0.332 | 0.031 | 0.233 | -0.001 | -0.600 | 82.8 | 2.5 | 17.500 | 40 |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 0.310 | -0.030 | 0.317 | -0.032 | 0.303 | -0.061 | -1.200 | 90.1 | 7.6 | 39.200 | 158 |
| German Marquez | Rockies | 0.308 | 0.022 | 0.325 | 0.029 | 0.306 | 0.026 | -1.700 | 88.2 | 4.2 | 35.100 | 191 |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | 0.306 | -0.018 | 0.312 | 0.002 | 0.305 | -0.010 | -0.700 | 89.7 | 10.6 | 39.700 | 179 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 0.244 | -0.005 | 0.250 | 0.015 | 0.256 | -0.009 | 0.900 | 84.3 | 3.0 | 24.000 | 167 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 0.319 | -0.022 | 0.330 | -0.026 | 0.279 | 0.025 | -0.800 | 88.6 | 9.7 | 33.200 | 217 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 0.330 | -0.038 | 0.335 | 0.010 | 0.299 | -0.071 | -1.500 | 87.9 | 5.3 | 36.800 | 209 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 0.231 | -0.030 | 0.296 | -0.009 | 0.216 | -0.011 | -1.200 | 87.3 | 5.0 | 29.900 | 201 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 0.357 | -0.002 | 0.322 | -0.028 | 0.339 | -0.019 | -0.200 | 89.4 | 6.1 | 44.200 | 163 |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | 0.325 | -0.028 | 0.297 | 0.008 | 0.326 | -0.031 | -0.800 | 86.2 | 6.4 | 32.600 | 187 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 0.337 | -0.023 | 0.366 | -0.011 | 0.330 | -0.035 | -0.600 | 88.3 | 5.6 | 37.600 | 197 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 0.332 | -0.016 | 0.333 | 0.019 | 0.387 | -0.014 | -1.300 | 86.9 | 8.9 | 35.100 | 191 |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | 0.375 | -0.023 | 0.383 | -0.056 | 0.346 | -0.024 | -0.900 | 89.2 | 8.1 | 39.300 | 173 |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | 0.357 | -0.029 | 0.344 | -0.057 | 0.383 | -0.041 | 0.000 | 88.9 | 7.6 | 38.600 | 197 |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 0.282 | -0.014 | 0.311 | -0.004 | 0.239 | -0.035 | -0.400 | 84.6 | 3.5 | 27.000 | 115 |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 0.321 | -0.042 | 0.291 | -0.028 | 0.306 | -0.031 | 0.400 | 89 | 9.0 | 39.300 | 201 |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 0.298 | -0.026 | 0.309 | 0.006 | 0.308 | -0.024 | -0.600 | 88 | 6.5 | 33.200 | 199 |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | 0.279 | 0.032 | 0.332 | 0.050 | 0.254 | 0.025 | -0.100 | 88.3 | 5.9 | 35.500 | 169 |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 0.256 | -0.012 | 0.251 | -0.017 | 0.258 | -0.021 | -0.400 | 87.6 | 3.3 | 26.400 | 121 |
| Wilmer Font | Rays | 0.387 | 0.085 | 0.418 | 0.147 | 0.399 | 0.048 | 0.700 | 91.5 | 11.5 | 35.900 | 78 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 0.327 | -0.034 | 0.305 | 0.010 | 0.326 | -0.049 | -0.800 | 89.6 | 10.4 | 38.600 | 202 |
Nine of today’s pitchers have a sub-.300 xwOBA.
Chris Sale combines the fourth lowest aEV with the sixth highest Barrels/BBE. Looks like he occasionally misses in bad spots. His xwOBA is an elite .274, but still a distant fifth on today’s board (fourth among those with more than a few starts).
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
I’m having a crisis of confidence in all of my rankings beyond Sale tonight. Perhaps it’s lack of sleep. Consider everything below very fluid. Trust the information, not my opinions tonight.
Value Tier One
Jacob deGrom (1t) is much too cheap, even for this spot against the Yankees, especially with it being at home. It may actually be the lack of Wins that’s holding his price tag down. Something to actually thank the Mets’ bullpen for? How the hell do four pitchers cost more than him on DraftKings tonight?
Value Tier Two
Vince Velasquez (7t) costs less than $9K and is probably going to fly right under the radar on this board against the Brewers and he shouldn’t. It’s not even a bad matchup and he’s been really good. The biggest mark against him is that he hasn’t completed seven innings in a start this year, but has finished six innings in half of his 12.
Chris Sale (1t) has run into some issues over his last few starts and it wouldn’t be out of line to say that his HR streak may continue. That said, he’s in the highest strikeout upside spot on the board and his strikeout rate has not suffered. He’s also $400 less on DraftKings than FanDuel today, a rarity for a super high end pitcher.
J.A. Happ (5t) struck out nine of 26 Orioles faced in his only start against them this season. Similar results would not be surprising.
Justin Verlander (3t) is the most expensive pitcher on the board (either site) and is in a high upside spot against the Rangers, but it’s not an overall favorable matchup in a tough park. He’s faced them three times this season, twice at home (14 IP – 2 ER – 18 K), once on the road (6 IP – 0 R – 5 K).
Stephen Strasburg (5t) seems to be appearing on boards where he doesn’t stand out (and that’s again the case today). Should he be forgotten again, he’s nearly as good as any other arm on this slate.
Value Tier Three
Masahiro Tanaka has the same concerns and upside as he normally does, but may be in a slightly lower risk spot tonight. The price tag is more attractive on FanDuel ($8.6K).
Walker Beuhler has been a high quality arm at an above average cost, who doesn’t often get that deep into games without nearly perfect efficiency. The matchup is not great, but it’s winnable in a favorable environment.
Caleb Smith is a bit pricey for a guy who generally struggled to consistently get deep into games in a spot against some dangerous RHBs, but he also has a reverse split so far and it’s a high upside spot in a great park.
Zack Greinke is in Coors. It’s not ideal, especially with his contact rates, but it’s not insurmountable either and he’s at a discount.
Trevor Bauer (7t) could reasonably put up the top line of the night. I’d actually expect something like seven innings from him here, but the strikeout upside is not as high as it is for other top pitchers in his matchup with the Tigers tonight and he actually has the second highest price tag on DraftKings ($11.8K).
Brandon McCarthy is interesting as an SP2 type on DraftKings for less than $6K. Not everything he’s been doing over most of the last month seems entirely sustainable, but it also seems there’s been a bit of bad luck in his overall numbers this season. We do know for sure that he’s made some major changes that coincide with his turn around too. The matchup is not that bad considering park adjustment, but it’s always a bit of a concern when facing the hottest offense in the league.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Luke Weaver may not get deep into this game, but the potential for that is accounted for in a cost below $8K probably.
Jhoulys Chacin has shown some improvement in his strikeout rate over the last month. The problem is that he still rarely goes beyond 90 pitches, but he’s just $6.2K on DraftKings in a high upside spot.
Marco Gonzales has had a concerning drop in strikeouts over the last month, but has consistently completed six innings and is facing a cold offense in a negative run environment. His overall strikeout rate for the season is still league average, though the SwStr% is a bit below.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.