Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, May 30th
Happy Memorial Day to all of you crazy enough to be reading about daily fantasy baseball pitching options on BBQ day. I’m throwing readers a changeup today. More a hanging changeup than one of those nasty vintage Pedro Martinez ones, but something different than normal because of the heavy day schedule. We’ll still only be covering the night games (5 games, 10 pitchers) in write-ups, but all the day’s pitchers are going to be listed. This also means we might have to be a little quicker than normal to get this information out while all of it’s still relevant.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 2.9 | 3.76 | 6.07 | 1.65 | 1.03 | 4.03 | 1.91 | CHC | 109 | 115 | 136 |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 0.3 | 4.09 | 5.94 | 1.44 | 0.9 | 4.68 | 7.19 | SEA | 107 | 117 | 140 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | -9.5 | 3.57 | 5.78 | 2.02 | 1.05 | 3.44 | 4.25 | MIL | 105 | 92 | 110 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 1.9 | 4.15 | 5.84 | 1.79 | 1.37 | 3.39 | 5.46 | CIN | 64 | 70 | 46 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 4.8 | 3.72 | 6.1 | 1.27 | 1.07 | 4.17 | 2.3 | ARI | 98 | 99 | 105 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | -6.2 | 4.38 | 5.52 | 1.02 | 1.37 | 3.95 | 3.28 | COL | 92 | 86 | 77 |
| Derek Holland | TEX | 13.3 | 4.54 | 5.8 | 1 | 1.03 | 5.48 | 5.18 | CLE | 119 | 90 | 123 |
| Edwin Escobar | ARI | -7.1 | 3.32 | 0.25 | 1.07 | HOU | 96 | 83 | 89 | |||
| Ervin Santana | MIN | -3.4 | 4.07 | 6.11 | 1.21 | 0.95 | 4.27 | 4.32 | OAK | 78 | 90 | 103 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 5.7 | 3.69 | 5.82 | 0.95 | 1.04 | 3.2 | 2.68 | TAM | 122 | 97 | 105 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | -1.5 | 4.26 | 5.57 | 1.86 | 1.02 | 3.96 | 3.3 | TOR | 103 | 99 | 109 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 11.8 | 3.58 | 5.65 | 1.06 | 1.03 | 3.88 | 4.45 | LOS | 97 | 92 | 102 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 3.2 | 4.31 | 5.85 | 1.83 | 1 | 4.37 | 4.96 | FLA | 93 | 111 | 105 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 0.9 | 3.67 | 6.71 | 1.21 | 0.96 | 4.24 | 3.28 | ATL | 66 | 72 | 76 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | -0.3 | 3.99 | 5.32 | 1.1 | 1.02 | 3.81 | 3.19 | WAS | 96 | 87 | 94 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ANA | 4.7 | 4.24 | 5.73 | 1.61 | 0.92 | 4.25 | 4.71 | DET | 102 | 112 | 100 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 3.2 | 3.54 | 6.41 | 1.39 | 0.87 | 3.4 | 2.89 | NYM | 91 | 90 | 78 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 9.4 | 3.49 | 6.2 | 1.02 | 1.03 | 3.59 | 3.34 | TEX | 83 | 89 | 110 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | -8.4 | 3.95 | 6. | 1 | 1.05 | 3.68 | 3.55 | STL | 116 | 119 | 89 |
| Justin Nicolino | FLA | 2.1 | 5.64 | 6.06 | 1.21 | 1 | 5.79 | 4.09 | PIT | 110 | 125 | 125 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | -7.8 | 3.86 | 6.53 | 0.85 | 0.92 | 4.06 | 2.93 | ANA | 99 | 103 | 97 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | -14.2 | 4.36 | 5.41 | 1.83 | 0.95 | 4.38 | 4.3 | MIN | 88 | 91 | 136 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 3.7 | 4.45 | 6.11 | 0.63 | 1.02 | 4.83 | 5.01 | NYY | 72 | 88 | 62 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 0.1 | 4.12 | 5.18 | 1.37 | 1.04 | 4.87 | 4.06 | KAN | 95 | 101 | 144 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | -4.8 | 3.5 | 6.21 | 1.24 | 0.87 | 3.2 | 6.3 | CHW | 98 | 90 | 80 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | -4.8 | 4.21 | 5.56 | 0.78 | 0.96 | 4.75 | 4.43 | SFO | 99 | 101 | 129 |
| Nate Karns | SEA | -6.5 | 3.88 | 5.59 | 1.14 | 0.9 | 4.11 | 3.97 | SDG | 85 | 69 | 103 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 3.9 | 4.09 | 6.21 | 1.19 | 1.04 | 4.47 | 3.66 | BAL | 106 | 112 | 96 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 6.3 | 4 | 6.14 | 1.41 | 1.02 | 4.04 | 3.08 | PHI | 68 | 75 | 75 |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | -2.8 | 4.89 | 5.38 | 1.56 | 1.04 | 5.08 | 4.75 | BOS | 116 | 125 | 123 |
Ian Kennedy has only had the fortune of pitching three games in Kansas City this season, but has done very well in those three starts (18.2 IP – 17 H – 4 ER – 1 HR – 4 BB – 23 K – 76 BF) and that includes matchups against Boston and Detroit. The park and defense perfectly suit his skillset. He’s struck out at least six in seven of nine starts and though Tampa Bay has punished opposing pitchers on the road (17.3 HR/FB), you have to consider that every road game they play against an AL East opponent is in a hitter’s park. They have a 26.1 K% vs RHP.
Jeremy Hellickson has the 2nd highest SwStr% on the board (all day) and first if we count only qualified pitchers. He’s gone seven innings with seven or more strikeouts in three of his last six starts, allowing three or fewer runs five times. He’s allowed nine HRs, but none in his last three starts with a 51.4 GB% and -2.8 Hard-Soft% over his last two starts. As we know by now, Washington has just a couple of potent bats against RHP, with the RH portion of their lineup struggling mightily to hit same handed pitching.
Justin Verlander has turned back the clock over his last four starts (30.1 IP – 16 H – 4 ER – 1 HR – 9 BB – 37 K – 115 BF). This would be a truly amazing transformation if, as he claims, he just hasn’t been fully healthy in four years. He hasn’t gained back any velocity and is in fact down another half mile this season without a significant change in his pitch mix. He’s had a SwStr above 12% in each of his last four starts, four of his five highest marks of the season. His 11.9 SwStr% for the season ties his career high from 2012, his last dominant season (yes, it’s been that long). The Angels are not an unfavorable offense or park, but they have just a 15.6 K% vs RHP, lowest in the league.
Tanner Roark has been either really good or not even useful over his 10 starts, allowing four runs or more four times with a total of 14 strikeouts in those starts, but has not allowed more than an ER in his other six starts with at least five strikeouts in the last five of those. He doesn’t throw exceptionally hard (92 mph) and has only even generated better than a league average SwStr% three times, but his contact profile is simply mind blowing as he’s combined a 54.4 GB% into a -10.2 Hard-Soft%. Weak ground balls don’t count more than other outs, but they’re our favorite thing besides strikeouts and popups, as the most likely candidates to turn into outs. The Phillies are tonight’s top matchup. They are the 3rd worst home offense in baseball (6.8 HR/FB, -0.2 Hard-Soft%), while not hitting the ball much harder vs RHP (9.2 HR/FB, 5.2 Hard-Soft%) with a slightly higher than average K% in both situations.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.5 LOB% – 11.8 HR/FB)
Marco Estrada (.213 BABIP – 78.4 LOB% – 8.0 HR/FB) was popped for two long balls in Yankee Stadium last night, but only allowed three runs through seven innings despite adding four walks with just two strikeouts. He has walked four in four of his last seven, striking out more than five just twice. Same opponent, different park, same high risk cost with moderate reward ceiling.
Matt Andriese (.225 BABIP – 73.2 LOB% – 3.4 HR/FB) had a season high six strikeouts in his last start. The Kansas City offense is wounded, but he costs $10.2K on DraftKings.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Ivan Nova has been an extreme ground ball generator (63.6%) with a rising strikeout rate (nearly league average SwStr%), who has walked just four of 102 batters in four starts. They Blue Jays haven’t been as potent as expected, but we’re still not calling them a favorable matchup at home. If the cost were a bit less than average, we might have a tougher choice on our hands. Ground balls don’t leave the park.
Jhoulys Chacin has not struck out more than four in any of his last five starts.
Justin Nicolino doubled his strikeout total for the season in his last start. He now has 12 in six starts and 35 in 18 career starts.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 20.7% | 7.2% | Road | 17.1% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 39.1% | 4.4% |
| Andrew Cashner | Padres | L2 Years | 19.2% | 7.7% | Road | 16.1% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 4.0% | 16.0% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 23.2% | 8.7% | Road | 24.2% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 12.5% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Years | 17.9% | 7.8% | Home | 20.3% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 11.5% | 11.5% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | L2 Years | 21.2% | 6.2% | Road | 18.4% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 34.6% | 3.9% |
| Dan Straily | Reds | L2 Years | 21.2% | 11.0% | Road | 24.6% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 9.2% |
| Derek Holland | Rangers | L2 Years | 15.4% | 6.1% | Road | 12.0% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 10.2% | 4.1% |
| Edwin Escobar | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 25.0% | 0.0% | Home | L14 Days | ||||
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 20.0% | 8.1% | Road | 19.3% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 8.0% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 24.1% | 8.3% | Home | 28.3% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 29.3% | 4.9% |
| Ivan Nova | Yankees | L2 Years | 15.2% | 6.7% | Road | 15.2% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 4.0% |
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | L2 Years | 23.2% | 6.5% | Home | 20.8% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 9.6% |
| Jeff Locke | Pirates | L2 Years | 16.5% | 8.3% | Road | 15.8% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 5.6% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 20.5% | 4.9% | Road | 17.3% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 5.6% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 20.2% | 6.8% | Home | 20.4% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 4.1% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Angels | L2 Years | 18.5% | 8.8% | Home | 17.2% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 12.8% | 10.6% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | L2 Years | 21.7% | 5.4% | Road | 21.9% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 1.9% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Years | 20.9% | 3.0% | Home | 23.2% | 3.1% | L14 Days | 22.4% | 3.5% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Years | 24.1% | 9.5% | Home | 24.7% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 34.0% | 14.0% |
| Justin Nicolino | Marlins | L2 Years | 7.8% | 7.1% | Home | 5.0% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 2.2% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 21.2% | 6.5% | Road | 21.4% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 33.9% | 8.5% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 16.0% | 7.8% | Home | 14.6% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 10.6% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 18.9% | 7.9% | Home | 18.2% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 19.3% | 8.8% |
| Matt Andriese | Rays | L2 Years | 17.1% | 6.2% | Road | 14.0% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 5.9% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | L2 Years | 23.2% | 5.4% | Home | 24.5% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 7.0% | 9.3% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 19.2% | 7.0% | Home | 18.2% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 10.0% |
| Nate Karns | Mariners | L2 Years | 23.7% | 9.1% | Home | 21.5% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 5.0% |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | L2 Years | 19.9% | 8.1% | Road | 18.7% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 5.1% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 17.3% | 5.7% | Road | 15.9% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 7.4% |
| Tyler Wilson | Orioles | L2 Years | 10.7% | 6.4% | Home | 10.9% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 5.8% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | Home | 20.8% | 12.6% | LH | 19.1% | 13.2% | L7Days | 23.7% | 10.6% |
| Mariners | Home | 20.7% | 8.7% | RH | 19.4% | 9.2% | L7Days | 19.5% | 4.1% |
| Brewers | Home | 24.6% | 11.3% | RH | 27.0% | 10.1% | L7Days | 25.0% | 12.9% |
| Reds | Road | 23.2% | 6.0% | RH | 23.1% | 5.8% | L7Days | 25.6% | 3.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 22.6% | 7.8% | RH | 20.6% | 7.0% | L7Days | 18.5% | 10.8% |
| Rockies | Home | 18.8% | 8.8% | RH | 18.3% | 6.7% | L7Days | 20.8% | 5.4% |
| Indians | Home | 20.1% | 10.6% | LH | 22.4% | 7.4% | L7Days | 19.0% | 9.9% |
| Astros | Road | 25.3% | 8.8% | LH | 27.7% | 10.0% | L7Days | 25.3% | 7.5% |
| Athletics | Home | 17.5% | 6.1% | RH | 17.9% | 6.7% | L7Days | 17.9% | 4.9% |
| Rays | Road | 24.6% | 8.7% | RH | 25.8% | 8.3% | L7Days | 27.8% | 8.4% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 23.3% | 9.6% | RH | 23.2% | 9.3% | L7Days | 22.5% | 7.8% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.6% | 9.3% | RH | 20.3% | 8.6% | L7Days | 21.6% | 9.9% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.2% | 7.4% | LH | 23.1% | 7.0% | L7Days | 18.2% | 6.8% |
| Braves | Home | 21.5% | 8.3% | RH | 19.6% | 8.8% | L7Days | 20.2% | 10.5% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.6% | 9.5% | RH | 20.5% | 9.3% | L7Days | 18.3% | 4.1% |
| Tigers | Road | 23.4% | 7.0% | RH | 22.9% | 6.8% | L7Days | 21.6% | 7.0% |
| Mets | Home | 25.0% | 9.7% | LH | 27.8% | 8.1% | L7Days | 31.7% | 6.3% |
| Rangers | Road | 20.8% | 5.6% | RH | 18.8% | 7.3% | L7Days | 16.6% | 7.2% |
| Cardinals | Road | 19.8% | 9.5% | RH | 19.7% | 8.5% | L7Days | 20.9% | 7.2% |
| Pirates | Road | 20.9% | 8.6% | LH | 23.5% | 9.4% | L7Days | 19.9% | 6.5% |
| Angels | Home | 16.2% | 8.9% | RH | 15.6% | 8.3% | L7Days | 16.5% | 7.6% |
| Twins | Road | 27.0% | 8.2% | RH | 23.1% | 7.6% | L7Days | 22.7% | 8.6% |
| Yankees | Road | 19.8% | 7.4% | RH | 18.9% | 8.3% | L7Days | 21.4% | 9.0% |
| Royals | Home | 18.3% | 7.0% | RH | 19.4% | 6.2% | L7Days | 19.8% | 7.4% |
| White Sox | Road | 20.5% | 6.8% | RH | 20.3% | 8.3% | L7Days | 23.6% | 5.0% |
| Giants | Road | 15.9% | 8.3% | RH | 15.7% | 10.5% | L7Days | 13.1% | 7.2% |
| Padres | Road | 25.4% | 6.6% | RH | 24.2% | 6.4% | L7Days | 21.1% | 5.8% |
| Orioles | Home | 19.8% | 9.1% | RH | 23.5% | 8.1% | L7Days | 31.7% | 9.5% |
| Phillies | Home | 22.7% | 8.0% | RH | 21.5% | 6.7% | L7Days | 24.9% | 5.1% |
| Red Sox | Road | 20.8% | 7.4% | RH | 18.6% | 8.4% | L7Days | 15.1% | 9.8% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 28.7% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 2016 | 31.5% | 13.5% | 11.2% | Road | 28.1% | 8.4% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 12.5% | 16.7% |
| Andrew Cashner | Padres | L2 Years | 29.2% | 9.9% | 12.9% | 2016 | 24.4% | 9.8% | 12.2% | Road | 26.5% | 11.2% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 0.0% | 5.0% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 28.0% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 2016 | 30.3% | 11.1% | 14.2% | Road | 30.0% | 9.7% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Years | 31.6% | 11.6% | 15.9% | 2016 | 31.5% | 13.0% | 14.2% | Home | 33.7% | 11.7% | 17.0% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 8.3% | 15.0% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | L2 Years | 25.2% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 2016 | 25.1% | 9.1% | 2.8% | Road | 27.7% | 10.2% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | -12.5% |
| Dan Straily | Reds | L2 Years | 28.9% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 2016 | 30.6% | 11.5% | 13.2% | Road | 30.5% | 15.2% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 8.3% | 20.0% |
| Derek Holland | Rangers | L2 Years | 31.8% | 8.4% | 16.1% | 2016 | 30.9% | 5.7% | 13.0% | Road | 35.0% | 10.8% | 16.5% | L14 Days | 19.5% | 5.3% | -2.5% |
| Edwin Escobar | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 40.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2016 | Home | L14 Days | |||||||||
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 28.8% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 2016 | 27.3% | 10.3% | 4.6% | Road | 25.2% | 7.6% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 35.1% | 20.0% | 24.3% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 33.1% | 12.7% | 17.0% | 2016 | 34.3% | 12.5% | 14.0% | Home | 36.9% | 20.8% | 23.6% | L14 Days | 46.2% | 33.3% | 38.5% |
| Ivan Nova | Yankees | L2 Years | 31.3% | 14.8% | 12.3% | 2016 | 28.9% | 20.0% | 9.1% | Road | 33.7% | 17.0% | 15.1% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 20.0% | 5.6% |
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | L2 Years | 31.1% | 12.5% | 13.4% | 2016 | 29.1% | 5.8% | 7.5% | Home | 33.2% | 13.4% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 44.4% | 11.8% | 30.5% |
| Jeff Locke | Pirates | L2 Years | 27.5% | 13.1% | 7.3% | 2016 | 25.6% | 15.1% | 10.7% | Road | 27.6% | 13.8% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 16.7% | 2.3% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 27.1% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 2016 | 28.5% | 7.9% | 10.0% | Road | 27.0% | 8.5% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 44.4% | 6.3% | 27.7% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 33.5% | 12.8% | 16.5% | 2016 | 31.5% | 16.4% | 10.5% | Home | 32.8% | 13.5% | 15.2% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 0.0% | -2.8% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Angels | L2 Years | 35.5% | 14.4% | 18.4% | 2016 | 35.5% | 18.2% | 15.2% | Home | 35.2% | 10.3% | 18.7% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 16.7% | 8.5% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | L2 Years | 28.9% | 5.9% | 12.0% | 2016 | 32.8% | 1.6% | 15.0% | Road | 29.2% | 6.5% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 36.1% | 0.0% | 19.4% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Years | 33.1% | 15.6% | 17.4% | 2016 | 39.2% | 15.5% | 24.6% | Home | 35.2% | 18.2% | 24.7% | L14 Days | 44.2% | 16.7% | 25.6% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Years | 30.8% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 2016 | 32.5% | 6.3% | 13.0% | Home | 38.8% | 5.6% | 24.5% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 9.1% | 11.6% |
| Justin Nicolino | Marlins | L2 Years | 33.2% | 9.0% | 12.2% | 2016 | 39.3% | 9.8% | 22.1% | Home | 37.8% | 9.5% | 17.1% | L14 Days | 61.1% | 23.1% | 52.8% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 25.9% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 2016 | 30.0% | 10.3% | 10.0% | Road | 20.7% | 10.0% | -0.8% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 0.0% | 8.8% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 28.9% | 16.4% | 13.3% | 2016 | 31.2% | 23.3% | 16.3% | Home | 31.6% | 12.3% | 15.4% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 0.0% | 18.2% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 29.4% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 2016 | 31.1% | 8.0% | 12.5% | Home | 26.6% | 7.5% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 9.1% | 7.3% |
| Matt Andriese | Rays | L2 Years | 34.0% | 8.8% | 15.6% | 2016 | 37.0% | 3.4% | 23.4% | Road | 35.4% | 5.7% | 15.9% | L14 Days | 46.2% | 8.3% | 33.4% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | L2 Years | 27.8% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 2016 | 30.8% | 13.6% | 6.6% | Home | 28.6% | 11.7% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 38.9% | 28.6% | 13.9% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 30.9% | 13.4% | 10.8% | 2016 | 31.8% | 16.7% | 10.6% | Home | 31.1% | 10.2% | 13.1% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 14.3% | 11.1% |
| Nate Karns | Mariners | L2 Years | 33.2% | 13.3% | 13.1% | 2016 | 31.0% | 12.2% | 11.3% | Home | 32.9% | 12.4% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 8.3% | -3.3% |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.5% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 2016 | 26.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | Road | 30.9% | 12.2% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 6.7% | -4.6% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 23.2% | 10.2% | 0.6% | 2016 | 21.4% | 10.5% | -10.1% | Road | 26.4% | 14.3% | 0.6% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 50.0% | -8.1% |
| Tyler Wilson | Orioles | L2 Years | 30.2% | 8.3% | 13.8% | 2016 | 29.2% | 12.8% | 9.8% | Home | 25.7% | 5.9% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 20.0% | 23.8% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | Home | 30.8% | 11.4% | 11.9% | LH | 31.5% | 13.1% | 15.7% | L7Days | 30.5% | 22.2% | 9.3% |
| Mariners | Home | 28.6% | 15.2% | 8.6% | RH | 30.4% | 15.1% | 12.4% | L7Days | 33.3% | 20.0% | 15.1% |
| Brewers | Home | 35.7% | 15.7% | 18.4% | RH | 31.9% | 15.6% | 12.3% | L7Days | 38.8% | 15.2% | 20.4% |
| Reds | Road | 29.4% | 7.1% | 10.1% | RH | 31.4% | 12.0% | 13.6% | L7Days | 27.5% | 10.9% | 4.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 35.8% | 16.7% | 18.1% | RH | 32.3% | 12.7% | 13.5% | L7Days | 31.7% | 14.0% | 12.4% |
| Rockies | Home | 32.9% | 12.3% | 15.6% | RH | 30.7% | 11.0% | 12.7% | L7Days | 29.3% | 12.1% | 8.4% |
| Indians | Home | 31.3% | 10.9% | 15.2% | LH | 30.7% | 6.3% | 11.5% | L7Days | 35.9% | 20.7% | 17.7% |
| Astros | Road | 31.7% | 16.4% | 13.7% | LH | 29.7% | 14.0% | 13.0% | L7Days | 36.7% | 19.6% | 23.0% |
| Athletics | Home | 28.0% | 9.6% | 10.2% | RH | 29.6% | 10.0% | 10.5% | L7Days | 28.7% | 10.3% | 5.9% |
| Rays | Road | 34.3% | 17.3% | 16.6% | RH | 34.5% | 15.1% | 13.9% | L7Days | 39.4% | 10.9% | 20.0% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 36.1% | 13.2% | 19.8% | RH | 33.7% | 13.9% | 16.4% | L7Days | 33.7% | 15.0% | 13.4% |
| Dodgers | Road | 33.8% | 10.4% | 18.7% | RH | 33.3% | 11.3% | 16.4% | L7Days | 38.3% | 12.5% | 20.2% |
| Marlins | Home | 29.0% | 11.9% | 6.0% | LH | 33.9% | 15.7% | 9.7% | L7Days | 33.5% | 10.3% | 14.8% |
| Braves | Home | 28.0% | 4.7% | 9.3% | RH | 24.2% | 4.7% | 3.6% | L7Days | 25.0% | 5.8% | 4.4% |
| Nationals | Road | 34.5% | 13.0% | 17.8% | RH | 32.4% | 12.5% | 14.8% | L7Days | 33.3% | 20.9% | 11.3% |
| Tigers | Road | 31.8% | 12.3% | 12.4% | RH | 33.5% | 13.9% | 16.4% | L7Days | 28.3% | 10.7% | 7.2% |
| Mets | Home | 31.9% | 13.6% | 8.4% | LH | 33.0% | 14.4% | 12.9% | L7Days | 35.2% | 25.0% | 18.8% |
| Rangers | Road | 30.1% | 10.9% | 12.1% | RH | 28.1% | 11.1% | 7.9% | L7Days | 28.0% | 13.5% | 6.0% |
| Cardinals | Road | 30.2% | 14.3% | 11.6% | RH | 32.1% | 14.9% | 13.9% | L7Days | 28.1% | 13.5% | 8.6% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.6% | 13.1% | 10.7% | LH | 34.3% | 17.6% | 16.0% | L7Days | 35.7% | 18.0% | 17.1% |
| Angels | Home | 27.5% | 11.8% | 7.6% | RH | 29.1% | 9.6% | 8.0% | L7Days | 28.5% | 8.7% | 5.0% |
| Twins | Road | 28.8% | 13.7% | 9.4% | RH | 31.3% | 12.0% | 12.7% | L7Days | 26.5% | 22.2% | 4.6% |
| Yankees | Road | 26.8% | 10.1% | 8.3% | RH | 24.0% | 14.3% | 6.2% | L7Days | 26.0% | 16.4% | 6.1% |
| Royals | Home | 29.0% | 9.2% | 7.1% | RH | 28.9% | 9.2% | 9.1% | L7Days | 31.8% | 6.1% | 13.6% |
| White Sox | Road | 28.4% | 10.9% | 10.0% | RH | 27.9% | 10.2% | 7.3% | L7Days | 30.6% | 13.8% | 9.8% |
| Giants | Road | 33.3% | 12.1% | 13.9% | RH | 31.5% | 9.8% | 12.9% | L7Days | 30.7% | 7.5% | 7.0% |
| Padres | Road | 33.9% | 14.1% | 17.0% | RH | 30.7% | 9.5% | 13.6% | L7Days | 31.5% | 15.1% | 13.0% |
| Orioles | Home | 32.1% | 14.6% | 9.3% | RH | 31.9% | 15.5% | 11.3% | L7Days | 34.7% | 10.9% | 13.6% |
| Phillies | Home | 20.9% | 6.8% | -0.2% | RH | 25.8% | 9.2% | 5.2% | L7Days | 29.1% | 10.7% | 7.9% |
| Red Sox | Road | 33.0% | 13.3% | 13.3% | RH | 33.7% | 12.5% | 15.7% | L7Days | 36.3% | 8.3% | 20.9% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.6 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.19 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 25.2% | 9.8% | 2.57 | 36.4% | 11.6% | 3.14 |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 16.0% | 5.8% | 2.76 | 10.8% | 6.6% | 1.64 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 19.0% | 8.1% | 2.35 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.67 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 17.0% | 7.6% | 2.24 | 16.4% | 6.7% | 2.45 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 20.3% | 10.7% | 1.90 | 23.5% | 13.3% | 1.77 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | 23.1% | 10.8% | 2.14 | 23.0% | 10.4% | 2.21 |
| Derek Holland | TEX | 12.4% | 6.1% | 2.03 | 7.4% | 4.1% | 1.80 |
| Edwin Escobar | ARI | ||||||
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 20.0% | 9.4% | 2.13 | 19.6% | 10.4% | 1.88 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 24.2% | 10.6% | 2.28 | 25.9% | 10.2% | 2.54 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 15.1% | 9.3% | 1.62 | 16.2% | 9.0% | 1.80 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 21.6% | 10.3% | 2.10 | 20.0% | 11.2% | 1.79 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 14.2% | 8.1% | 1.75 | 13.1% | 7.0% | 1.87 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 22.3% | 10.3% | 2.17 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.16 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 24.4% | 12.3% | 1.98 | 23.2% | 13.2% | 1.76 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ANA | 19.5% | 8.8% | 2.22 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 2.31 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 23.6% | 8.7% | 2.71 | 21.1% | 8.0% | 2.64 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 17.9% | 7.2% | 2.49 | 18.7% | 6.8% | 2.75 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 25.2% | 12.8% | 1.97 | 25.2% | 12.8% | 1.97 |
| Justin Nicolino | FLA | 8.2% | 3.9% | 2.10 | 8.2% | 3.9% | 2.10 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 26.5% | 11.9% | 2.23 | 27.9% | 14.1% | 1.98 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 17.0% | 9.0% | 1.89 | 14.5% | 6.5% | 2.23 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 22.0% | 10.2% | 2.16 | 20.3% | 11.5% | 1.77 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 16.2% | 8.7% | 1.86 | 16.2% | 8.7% | 1.86 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 18.0% | 10.2% | 1.76 | 19.2% | 10.5% | 1.83 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 20.7% | 8.5% | 2.44 | 20.7% | 8.5% | 2.44 |
| Nate Karns | SEA | 23.9% | 10.2% | 2.34 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 2.16 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 22.0% | 11.5% | 1.91 | 21.5% | 11.1% | 1.94 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 22.0% | 8.4% | 2.62 | 20.6% | 8.2% | 2.51 |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | 12.4% | 5.7% | 2.18 | 12.5% | 4.6% | 2.72 |
All of tonigh’ts pitchers appear in line, except Ivan Nova, who we spoke briefly about above.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.05 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.00 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 4.03 | 3.35 | -0.68 | 3.23 | -0.8 | 3.35 | -0.68 | 2.67 | 2.12 | -0.55 | 1.98 | -0.69 | 2.59 | -0.08 |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 4.87 | 4.91 | 0.04 | 4.84 | -0.03 | 4.52 | -0.35 | 4.76 | 5.57 | 0.81 | 5.26 | 0.5 | 5.29 | 0.53 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 4.25 | 4.27 | 0.02 | 4.24 | -0.01 | 4.11 | -0.14 | 6.84 | 4.17 | -2.67 | 4.11 | -2.73 | 4.71 | -2.13 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 4.9 | 4.16 | -0.74 | 3.97 | -0.93 | 4.05 | -0.85 | 6.07 | 4.08 | -1.99 | 3.89 | -2.18 | 3.76 | -2.31 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 5.13 | 3.96 | -1.17 | 4.03 | -1.1 | 3.51 | -1.62 | 4.06 | 3.56 | -0.5 | 3.53 | -0.53 | 3.57 | -0.49 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | 2.98 | 4.2 | 1.22 | 4.33 | 1.35 | 4.24 | 1.26 | 2.72 | 4.11 | 1.39 | 4.12 | 1.4 | 4.11 | 1.39 |
| Derek Holland | TEX | 5.21 | 5.26 | 0.05 | 5.4 | 0.19 | 4.12 | -1.09 | 7.23 | 5.81 | -1.42 | 6.02 | -1.21 | 4.42 | -2.81 |
| Edwin Escobar | ARI | ||||||||||||||
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 4.17 | 4.29 | 0.12 | 4.05 | -0.12 | 3.8 | -0.37 | 5.14 | 4.24 | -0.9 | 3.91 | -1.23 | 4.4 | -0.74 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 3.38 | 3.89 | 0.51 | 4.33 | 0.95 | 4.37 | 0.99 | 3.95 | 3.64 | -0.31 | 4.11 | 0.16 | 4.51 | 0.56 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 3.65 | 3.23 | -0.42 | 3.6 | -0.05 | 4.28 | 0.63 | 2.92 | 3.57 | 0.65 | 3.65 | 0.73 | 4.53 | 1.61 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 2.17 | 4.26 | 2.09 | 4.19 | 2.02 | 3.37 | 1.2 | 3.3 | 4.38 | 1.08 | 4.29 | 0.99 | 4.05 | 0.75 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 5.08 | 5.17 | 0.09 | 4.97 | -0.11 | 5.36 | 0.28 | 5.12 | 5.05 | -0.07 | 5 | -0.12 | 5.45 | 0.33 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 2.54 | 3.63 | 1.09 | 3.46 | 0.92 | 2.96 | 0.42 | 1.41 | 3.21 | 1.8 | 3.12 | 1.71 | 2.38 | 0.97 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 3.97 | 3.52 | -0.45 | 3.44 | -0.53 | 3.96 | -0.01 | 4.11 | 3.56 | -0.55 | 3.31 | -0.8 | 4.13 | 0.02 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ANA | 5.11 | 3.82 | -1.29 | 3.58 | -1.53 | 4.16 | -0.95 | 6.95 | 4.57 | -2.38 | 4.36 | -2.59 | 6.75 | -0.2 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 2.22 | 3.47 | 1.25 | 3.43 | 1.21 | 2.11 | -0.11 | 2.88 | 3.54 | 0.66 | 3.54 | 0.66 | 2.39 | -0.49 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 3.35 | 3.99 | 0.64 | 3.93 | 0.58 | 4.41 | 1.06 | 3.44 | 3.87 | 0.43 | 3.77 | 0.33 | 4.76 | 1.32 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 3.3 | 3.98 | 0.68 | 4.01 | 0.71 | 3.18 | -0.12 | 3.3 | 3.98 | 0.68 | 4.01 | 0.71 | 3.18 | -0.12 |
| Justin Nicolino | FLA | 4.37 | 5.76 | 1.39 | 5.41 | 1.04 | 5.03 | 0.66 | 5.53 | 5.84 | 0.31 | 5.66 | 0.13 | 5.46 | -0.07 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 4.02 | 3.66 | -0.36 | 3.98 | -0.04 | 3.67 | -0.35 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 3.76 | 0.96 | 2.83 | 0.03 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 5.36 | 4.48 | -0.88 | 4.38 | -0.98 | 5.69 | 0.33 | 6.57 | 5.03 | -1.54 | 4.92 | -1.65 | 6.07 | -0.5 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 2.76 | 4.35 | 1.59 | 4.56 | 1.8 | 3.85 | 1.09 | 2.65 | 4.48 | 1.83 | 4.65 | 2 | 4.5 | 1.85 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 2.63 | 4.36 | 1.73 | 4.33 | 1.7 | 3.11 | 0.48 | 2.63 | 4.36 | 1.73 | 4.33 | 1.7 | 3.11 | 0.48 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 6.08 | 4.38 | -1.7 | 4.24 | -1.84 | 4.43 | -1.65 | 7.56 | 4.28 | -3.28 | 4.27 | -3.29 | 5.35 | -2.21 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 3.95 | 3.88 | -0.07 | 3.88 | -0.07 | 4.51 | 0.56 | 3.95 | 3.88 | -0.07 | 3.88 | -0.07 | 4.51 | 0.56 |
| Nate Karns | SEA | 3.53 | 3.98 | 0.45 | 3.82 | 0.29 | 3.82 | 0.29 | 3.45 | 3.8 | 0.35 | 3.74 | 0.29 | 3.43 | -0.02 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 2.52 | 4.1 | 1.58 | 4.07 | 1.55 | 3.16 | 0.64 | 3.41 | 4.02 | 0.61 | 3.88 | 0.47 | 3.06 | -0.35 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 2.71 | 3.83 | 1.12 | 3.57 | 0.86 | 3.43 | 0.72 | 3.38 | 3.7 | 0.32 | 3.52 | 0.14 | 3.9 | 0.52 |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | 3.8 | 4.72 | 0.92 | 4.61 | 0.81 | 4.69 | 0.89 | 4.32 | 4.95 | 0.63 | 4.76 | 0.44 | 4.99 | 0.67 |
Ian Kennedy had an 84.2 LOB% that should regress, but I’m not as quick to question his .267 BABIP due to his batted ball profile (0.93 career GB/FB) and defense. His .290 career BABIP is not that much higher.
Tanner Roark doesn’t have anything out of line in his .282 BABIP, 75.6 LOB%, or 10.5 HR/FB. He has a league average 12.9 K-BB%, walking a few more batters than average. Five unearned runs have crossed the plate on his watch though, which would explain the entirely of the gap between his ERA and estimators.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 21.0 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 0.263 | 0.309 | 0.046 | 0.188 | 10.8% | 87.7% |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 0.295 | 0.291 | -0.004 | 0.208 | 4.9% | 93.0% |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.291 | 0.260 | -0.031 | 0.164 | 4.4% | 88.0% |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 0.321 | 0.295 | -0.026 | 0.215 | 3.7% | 84.9% |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 0.310 | 0.382 | 0.072 | 0.206 | 10.6% | 86.9% |
| Dan Straily | CIN | 0.292 | 0.225 | -0.067 | 0.204 | 9.6% | 83.3% |
| Derek Holland | TEX | 0.288 | 0.297 | 0.009 | 0.21 | 12.9% | 89.9% |
| Edwin Escobar | ARI | 0.316 | |||||
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.325 | 0.331 | 0.006 | 0.24 | 10.3% | 87.3% |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 0.295 | 0.267 | -0.028 | 0.184 | 9.4% | 83.3% |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 0.297 | 0.276 | -0.021 | 0.157 | 12.0% | 90.5% |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 0.251 | 0.269 | 0.018 | 0.188 | 7.7% | 89.8% |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 0.293 | 0.292 | -0.001 | 0.173 | 3.8% | 85.9% |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 0.305 | 0.277 | -0.028 | 0.216 | 11.1% | 86.7% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 0.289 | 0.307 | 0.018 | 0.229 | 9.1% | 81.3% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ANA | 0.295 | 0.293 | -0.002 | 0.222 | 18.2% | 89.7% |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 0.286 | 0.296 | 0.01 | 0.24 | 11.3% | 87.0% |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 0.282 | 0.235 | -0.047 | 0.218 | 10.3% | 92.2% |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 0.301 | 0.267 | -0.034 | 0.213 | 9.4% | 82.3% |
| Justin Nicolino | FLA | 0.308 | 0.263 | -0.045 | 0.218 | 4.9% | 93.5% |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.312 | 0.278 | -0.034 | 0.189 | 15.4% | 82.2% |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 0.305 | 0.317 | 0.012 | 0.196 | 4.7% | 89.7% |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 0.277 | 0.213 | -0.064 | 0.146 | 12.0% | 86.2% |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 0.277 | 0.225 | -0.052 | 0.16 | 6.9% | 90.8% |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 0.311 | 0.374 | 0.063 | 0.274 | 8.5% | 86.3% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 0.300 | 0.325 | 0.025 | 0.241 | 6.7% | 86.6% |
| Nate Karns | SEA | 0.273 | 0.294 | 0.021 | 0.25 | 8.2% | 86.8% |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 0.298 | 0.261 | -0.037 | 0.229 | 0.0% | 77.7% |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.280 | 0.282 | 0.002 | 0.234 | 5.3% | 88.3% |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | 0.296 | 0.232 | -0.064 | 0.197 | 10.6% | 94.5% |
Justin Verlander has a BABIP a bit out of range for his poor defense, but has an excellent profile, as he’s always has, and has a .289 career rate.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
I count 11 pitchers (full slate) with at least a $1.5K gap between their DK and FD prices, four at least $2K apart with the craziest instance being Andriese’s $10.2K on DraftKings. He perfectly doubles Holland on that site, while they’re just $400 apart on FanDuel. Again, we’re only covering the night slate pitchers down here though, which almost perfectly separates five pitchers.
Value Tier One
Ian Kennedy (1) turns out a bit more costly than you’d like to see him on DraftKings for nearly $10K, but might be tonight’s overall top pitcher and a bit easier top pick on FanDuel as I believe he might be in line for the night’s top strikeout rate if things go as projected (which you know they always do). Both he and the Rays have strikeout rates around a quarter of the time across the board.
Value Tier Two
Jeremy Hellickson (3t) has transformed himself in a Phillies uniform this season. He’s been missing bats since April, but has just recently started combining weaker contact on the ground. If he keeps all of it up, he’ll reach his former prospect potential without relying on his defense and stranding runners for a low ERA, like he has in the past. He costs just a bit more than average on DraftKings, but he’s performed that way and is in a slightly favorable spot tonight.
Value Tier Three
Tanner Roark (2) has been generating more pitcher friendly contact that any pitcher in the league. I’ve never seen a double digit negative contact differential through this many starts before. He’s also surprisingly striking out a higher than league average amount of batters, though he still really has that one standout start (15) and I think his overall rate might drop a bit below average eventually, but it should still be useful if he keeps generating nearly the amount of weak ground balls. He also has the top matchup tonight. Unfortunately, he costs nearly $9.6K on DraftKings, where there really isn’t a strong pick tonight, but he might be just as useful as the two above.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Justin Verlander (3t) has been truly dominant over the last four starts, but we can’t just forget the last three years and a month. Additionally, he’s tonight’s highest priced DraftKings pitcher ($10.9K) against an offense that doesn’t strike out.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window