Advanced Stats - Pitching: Saturday, April 15th
After updating Park Factors and adding a Glossary this week, it almost feels like I’m showing up empty handed on Saturday. I’m hoping to see updated DRA and Statcast numbers on Monday, but that’s probably it in terms of upgrades or new features for this season. At least for now, what you see is what you’re going to get here. The Saturday slate is nearly split in thirds with six early, four late afternoon and then five late. It was difficult deciding on which one to cover, so let’s settle for notes on each of the latter two for a total of nine games. All of Saturday’s probables are listed.
Just a reminder that we’re using 2017 stats for everything except DRA, Statcast numbers and Team Defense. Hopefully, Monday’s the day. Please consider sample size for the next couple of weeks.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | FLA | 2.8 | 4.39 | 5.32 | 39.1% | 0.94 | 4.52 | 3.53 | NYM | 137 | 172 | 115 |
| Alec Asher | BAL | -3.2 | 5.24 | 4.68 | 35.7% | 1.03 | 6.24 | TOR | 48 | 44 | 80 | |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 1.9 | 4.35 | 5.45 | 46.9% | 0.89 | 5.34 | SEA | 128 | 81 | 124 | |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 0.4 | 4.64 | 5.46 | 42.1% | 1.02 | 4.24 | 3.39 | MIL | 122 | 111 | 103 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | -5.3 | 3.7 | 6.17 | 54.9% | 1.01 | 4 | 2.75 | NYY | 135 | 133 | 107 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.8 | 4.31 | 5.87 | 47.5% | 1.01 | 4.03 | 5.6 | STL | 75 | 74 | 129 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 4.1 | 2.97 | 6.94 | 41.4% | 1.13 | 3.27 | 2.39 | TAM | 98 | 127 | 73 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | -5.9 | 3.99 | 6.01 | 63.4% | 1 | 4.52 | 3.76 | ATL | 129 | 90 | 105 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 5.4 | 3.29 | 6.8 | 43.1% | 1.09 | 3.67 | 4.21 | DET | 125 | 115 | 140 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | -5.8 | 4.35 | 6.17 | 42.1% | 1.04 | 4.15 | 4.71 | CHW | 88 | 84 | 108 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 1.3 | 3.26 | 6.26 | 45.8% | 0.94 | 3.73 | 3.37 | FLA | 87 | 87 | 88 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 9.1 | 3.29 | 6.65 | 54.5% | 0.96 | 3.44 | 2.79 | PIT | 51 | 89 | 77 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | -1.4 | 4.08 | 5.8 | 36.5% | 1.13 | 4.58 | 4.38 | BOS | 114 | 107 | 58 |
| James Paxton | SEA | -4.3 | 3.81 | 5.7 | 48.1% | 0.89 | 3.41 | 3.11 | TEX | 123 | 124 | 85 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 1.9 | 4.16 | 5.67 | 41.1% | 1.01 | 4.47 | 5.6 | WAS | 133 | 119 | 91 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 3.3 | 3.84 | 6.48 | 43.6% | 1.04 | 4.53 | 4.56 | MIN | 113 | 77 | 92 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | -5.1 | 3.6 | 6.68 | 33.9% | 1.09 | 3.82 | 3.41 | CLE | 96 | 96 | 94 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 2.3 | 3.71 | 5.45 | 43.2% | 0.89 | 3.91 | 3.97 | ARI | 48 | 121 | 106 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 4.2 | 3.49 | 5.77 | 51.5% | 0.93 | 3.76 | 1.64 | OAK | 106 | 122 | 84 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 2.2 | 4.46 | 6.05 | 33.4% | 1.03 | 4.59 | 4.2 | BAL | 137 | 128 | 95 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 4.8 | 4.44 | 5.83 | 39.1% | 0.93 | 4.28 | 4.12 | COL | 80 | 68 | 73 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 6.5 | 3.99 | 5.71 | 40.6% | 1.06 | 4.63 | 5.53 | KAN | 67 | 80 | 64 |
| Nathan Karns | KAN | 4.9 | 4.03 | 5.45 | 40.8% | 1.06 | 4.3 | 5.02 | ANA | 73 | 131 | 104 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | -6.1 | 4.11 | 5.41 | 51.3% | 0.89 | 4.21 | 5.44 | LOS | 151 | 72 | 65 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | -0.9 | 4.77 | 6.18 | 0.424 | 1 | 4.92 | 4.62 | SDG | 69 | 94 | 97 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | -8.3 | 3.94 | 5.81 | 0.454 | 0.93 | 4.12 | 2.71 | HOU | 129 | 99 | 85 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 1.1 | 4.21 | 6.04 | 0.483 | 1.01 | 4.17 | 3.59 | PHI | 79 | 97 | 75 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | -3.1 | 4.51 | 5.83 | 0.571 | 0.93 | 4.29 | 3.08 | SFO | 97 | 102 | 155 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | -2.8 | 5.06 | 3.6 | 0.451 | 0.96 | 4.24 | 11.13 | CHC | 73 | 65 | 113 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | -7.2 | 4.17 | 5.73 | 0.472 | 1.02 | 4.28 | 5.32 | CIN | 78 | 94 | 112 |
Chris Sale has been throwing fewer fastballs and generating strikeouts again because the Red Sox don’t care about pitching to contact, they just want him to get outs. And guess what? He’s completed seven innings in each of his starts. A 41.2 Hard% on a 47.2 FB% could be a concern at some point, but not with a 28.3 K-BB% and probably not against an offense as strikeout prone as the Rays.
Jacob deGrom didn’t have his best stuff last time out, but rebounded after a rough first inning to only allow those two runs through six innings despite striking out just three. Once again, he came out at 96 mph with his velocity dropping off around pitch 30, but this time staying around 94 and even rebounding a bit later in the game. His SwStr% was actually up two points from 9.5% to 11.5% in his second start. It’s a favorable spot in a pitcher’s park for him in Miami.
Justin Verlander is off to a great start, but did struggle to miss bats against Boston (four Ks, 4.5 SwStr%) with a 55% hard contact rate. Cleveland has become a more offensive environment in recent seasons, but the Tribe has yet to really get on track, despite a 41.9 Hard% against RHP.
Kenta Maeda has missed 25 bats in two starts. He has the second highest SwStr% on today’s board through two starts. Like many pitchers so far this year, the majority of his contact has been in the air, but he’s only allowed hard contact on 16.1% of it. He’s in a nice spot at home against an Arizona offense that traditionally struggles against decent RHP on the road.
Lance McCullers has struck out 31.8% of batters with a 68.8 GB%, allowing just one unintentional walk with a -11.8 Hard-Soft% through two starts, in which he has looked like a Cy Young contender for Houston. The Oakland offense hasn’t been bad, but the park is certainly an upgrade.
Matt Moore looked like two different pitchers in home and away matchups against Arizona to start the year. I’ll let you guess which one was which. His control occasionally abandons him, which can wreck an outing, but a home appointment with the Rockies might be the top matchup on the board.
Sean Manaea leads baseball with a 19.1 SwStr%. He began to show some extreme bat missing skills late last season, but struggled to put hitters away consistently. He struck out 10 Rangers in his last start, but has allowed 10 runs through 11.1 innings due to a 36.8 LOB%. A more neutral pitcher last season, 64.3% of his contact has been on the ground this year.
Tyler Chatwood struck out around 23% of batters the last two months of last season and has struck out 12 of 47 this season. The caveat is that he’s done so against the Brewers and Padres with a SwStr% that’s merely league average. He also occasionally loses an ability to throw strikes, but does keep the ball on the ground 50% of the time. I’m not sure we should expect an above average strikeout rate in this spot, but San Francisco is a significant park upgrade and it looks even better for him if Posey misses again.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Patrick Corbin (.297 – 80% – 0) has struck just four of 45 batters, but been fortunate in other departments so far.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Corey Kluber is off to a rough start, allowing four HRs in two starts with just 10 strikeouts through two starts in difficult environments in Texas and Arizona. He returns home to face a tough Detroit lineup today. He was down two mph in his first start and then four from last year in his second start, while his contact rate is up 9.3 points. As bad as that sounds, “Kershaw led the league”:http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/which-pitcher-stats-have-relevance-this-early-with-a-note-on-clayton-kershaw/ in contact rate increase going into last night. It’s not a death sentence yet, but maybe enough reason to be cautious of him in this spot.
R.A. Dickey costs just over $7K on either site. If you were ever going to use him, this would be the spot, but it’s still difficult to advocate.
Matt Shoemaker has struck out just five of 42 batters with the same number of walks and just two fewer HRs through two starts. He did have a 14.1 SwStr% in his first start though, so who knows what to think? He has a nice matchup with the Royals today, but had pretty extreme home/road splits last season with his K-BB% decreasing 10 points on the road.
Nathan Karns can have some success in Kansas City as a fly ball pitcher, but doesn’t often go very deep into games due to control issues driving up his pitch count. The Angels have started out hot against RHP and while that won’t last to this degree, they may be difficult to fan, nullifying the upside, but not much of the risk here.
Marco Estrada successfully navigated this difficult Baltimore lineup in his first start of the season, but allowed three HRs to the Rays last time out. His extreme fly ball tendencies are a bit difficult to depend on in one of today’s tougher matchups. His hard contact rate through two starts is 47.1%.
Jake Odorizzi is an average pitcher with perfectly average peripherals at a perfectly average cost in a very difficult environment. His reverse split and fly ball tendencies may play against him in Boston as well.
Clayton Richard has generated a 65.7 GB% since the beginning of last season and 80.3% against LHBs. He’s not going to miss a ton of bats and that might make it a struggle for him to be worth much more than $7K, but you probably shouldn’t be using any LHBs against him.
Adam Conley is reasonably cheap and does have some upside, but all six innings he’s pitched so far have been against the Mets (two outings). He’s faced 24 batters, striking out seven with three walks and two HRs. The Mets have shown some RH pop in addition to Cespedes this year (Flores, D’Arnaud). His velocity has also been down about two mph in both outings. That is a bit concerning.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 21.4% | 9.7% | Home | 21.2% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 12.5% |
| Alec Asher | Orioles | L2 Years | 11.7% | 5.6% | Road | 2.3% | 2.3% | L14 Days | ||
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 19.6% | 9.1% | Road | 16.9% | 12.2% | L14 Days | ||
| Brandon Finnegan | Reds | L2 Years | 21.0% | 11.5% | Home | 20.7% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 15.8% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 22.8% | 8.3% | Road | 22.3% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 2.0% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 18.9% | 8.0% | Home | 20.3% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 10.6% | 12.8% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 28.8% | 4.9% | Home | 27.8% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 3.8% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 13.2% | 8.0% | Road | 12.6% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 15.1% | 9.4% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 26.6% | 5.9% | Home | 26.2% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 7.8% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 19.0% | 7.4% | Home | 18.8% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 8.7% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 25.8% | 5.5% | Road | 17.2% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 6.5% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.8% | 7.4% | Home | 28.5% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 7.8% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 21.4% | 6.8% | Road | 20.1% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 6.3% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 21.7% | 6.6% | Home | 23.9% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 6.1% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 19.4% | 6.2% | Road | 16.2% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 7.7% | 5.1% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | L2 Years | 21.1% | 5.6% | Road | 19.9% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 8.0% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 25.6% | 6.2% | Road | 26.6% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 7.7% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 24.8% | 7.0% | Home | 25.4% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 20.9% | 7.0% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 27.2% | 9.7% | Road | 27.1% | 15.6% | L14 Days | 31.5% | 3.7% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 20.5% | 8.3% | Home | 23.7% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 8.5% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 19.8% | 8.3% | Home | 22.2% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 3.6% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | L2 Years | 20.5% | 5.6% | Road | 16.8% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 11.9% | 11.9% |
| Nathan Karns | Royals | L2 Years | 23.7% | 9.8% | Home | 22.2% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 14.3% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 19.3% | 7.9% | Road | 17.7% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 8.9% | 8.9% |
| R.A. Dickey | Braves | L2 Years | 15.5% | 7.5% | Home | 16.7% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 13.3% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 21.5% | 6.4% | Home | 21.0% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 8.2% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 18.7% | 7.4% | Home | 21.5% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 4.2% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 18.0% | 10.3% | Road | 19.3% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 8.5% |
| Tyler Glasnow | Pirates | L2 Years | 21.0% | 15.1% | Road | 25.0% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 7.1% | 35.7% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.1% | 6.8% | Road | 16.7% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 12.2% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | Road | 21.3% | 10.9% | LH | 17.2% | 10.3% | L7Days | 16.4% | 9.4% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 27.7% | 7.8% | RH | 24.6% | 7.5% | L7Days | 20.2% | 13.3% |
| Mariners | Home | 17.3% | 8.7% | RH | 22.3% | 7.4% | L7Days | 23.6% | 8.0% |
| Brewers | Road | 20.0% | 5.8% | LH | 31.1% | 5.8% | L7Days | 23.7% | 8.5% |
| Yankees | Home | 17.1% | 10.3% | RH | 18.8% | 9.4% | L7Days | 17.4% | 10.4% |
| Cardinals | Road | 23.7% | 5.3% | LH | 23.2% | 9.1% | L7Days | 18.0% | 8.4% |
| Rays | Road | 30.1% | 5.5% | LH | 22.1% | 13.1% | L7Days | 20.8% | 5.3% |
| Braves | Home | 14.3% | 11.4% | LH | 19.4% | 0.0% | L7Days | 23.1% | 8.8% |
| Tigers | Road | 19.1% | 13.0% | RH | 23.3% | 11.9% | L7Days | 25.8% | 7.5% |
| White Sox | Road | 25.5% | 6.0% | RH | 24.9% | 6.7% | L7Days | 22.3% | 7.8% |
| Marlins | Home | 21.2% | 8.9% | RH | 22.1% | 6.7% | L7Days | 20.3% | 7.4% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.6% | 6.5% | RH | 14.1% | 8.0% | L7Days | 26.8% | 8.1% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.0% | 8.7% | RH | 16.6% | 7.7% | L7Days | 17.1% | 11.1% |
| Rangers | Road | 18.2% | 6.3% | LH | 27.8% | 8.3% | L7Days | 23.3% | 8.1% |
| Nationals | Home | 18.5% | 9.8% | RH | 21.9% | 9.6% | L7Days | 22.5% | 11.3% |
| Twins | Home | 18.8% | 17.5% | LH | 22.3% | 11.5% | L7Days | 25.6% | 10.5% |
| Indians | Home | 24.2% | 13.7% | RH | 22.7% | 9.7% | L7Days | 20.7% | 12.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 26.6% | 6.3% | RH | 24.8% | 8.7% | L7Days | 22.2% | 7.4% |
| Athletics | Home | 24.9% | 8.5% | RH | 22.1% | 8.6% | L7Days | 21.3% | 7.1% |
| Orioles | Road | 24.2% | 6.0% | RH | 20.2% | 6.3% | L7Days | 23.9% | 8.3% |
| Rockies | Road | 20.0% | 9.5% | LH | 27.4% | 4.0% | L7Days | 28.1% | 3.5% |
| Royals | Home | 20.7% | 8.6% | RH | 22.4% | 7.0% | L7Days | 23.6% | 6.0% |
| Angels | Road | 19.8% | 7.7% | RH | 19.0% | 7.8% | L7Days | 14.4% | 8.8% |
| Dodgers | Home | 16.1% | 13.0% | LH | 23.4% | 9.6% | L7Days | 20.5% | 6.0% |
| Padres | Road | 23.8% | 7.5% | RH | 21.6% | 8.9% | L7Days | 25.5% | 5.0% |
| Astros | Road | 16.2% | 9.6% | LH | 17.2% | 8.3% | L7Days | 21.5% | 5.3% |
| Phillies | Road | 30.3% | 10.3% | RH | 24.2% | 9.4% | L7Days | 23.4% | 5.9% |
| Giants | Home | 17.9% | 10.5% | RH | 19.6% | 8.6% | L7Days | 16.9% | 9.7% |
| Cubs | Home | 24.1% | 11.7% | RH | 24.9% | 8.8% | L7Days | 20.4% | 12.2% |
| Reds | Home | 20.2% | 3.5% | RH | 18.3% | 5.5% | L7Days | 20.4% | 5.4% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 28.3% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 2017 | 35.7% | 40.0% | 35.7% | Home | 33.3% | 7.6% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 40.0% | 35.7% |
| Alec Asher | Orioles | L2 Years | 31.5% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 2017 | Road | 26.8% | 0.0% | 7.3% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 32.3% | 12.3% | 16.9% | 2017 | Road | 37.8% | 16.7% | 27.6% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Brandon Finnegan | Reds | L2 Years | 34.3% | 15.7% | 16.9% | 2017 | 15.8% | 0.0% | -5.3% | Home | 35.7% | 17.2% | 19.7% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 0.0% | -5.3% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 28.8% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 2017 | 29.4% | 8.3% | 0.0% | Road | 32.2% | 4.5% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 26.9% | 14.3% | 6.3% | 2017 | 19.4% | 0.0% | -13.9% | Home | 23.9% | 15.3% | -1.1% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 0.0% | -13.9% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.1% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 2017 | 41.2% | 6.3% | 26.5% | Home | 34.0% | 19.6% | 17.2% | L14 Days | 41.2% | 6.3% | 26.5% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 26.0% | 12.9% | 5.2% | 2017 | 30.0% | 28.6% | 12.5% | Road | 25.2% | 14.3% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 28.6% | 12.5% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 27.6% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 2017 | 46.0% | 25.0% | 37.9% | Home | 27.0% | 12.3% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 46.0% | 25.0% | 37.9% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 28.8% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 2017 | 28.6% | 7.1% | 8.6% | Home | 28.0% | 10.6% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 7.1% | 8.6% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 28.1% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 2017 | 17.7% | 0.0% | -14.7% | Road | 33.5% | 10.8% | 15.3% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 0.0% | -14.7% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 23.7% | 9.6% | 0.7% | 2017 | 26.7% | 7.7% | -6.6% | Home | 21.5% | 8.5% | -2.5% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 7.7% | -6.6% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 30.8% | 11.3% | 13.3% | 2017 | 36.1% | 20.0% | 27.8% | Road | 33.0% | 13.2% | 17.4% | L14 Days | 36.1% | 20.0% | 27.8% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 31.7% | 8.3% | 16.0% | 2017 | 30.3% | 0.0% | 9.1% | Home | 32.8% | 6.3% | 19.4% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 0.0% | 9.1% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 29.8% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 2017 | 30.3% | 0.0% | 15.1% | Road | 29.0% | 11.5% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 0.0% | 15.1% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | L2 Years | 30.5% | 9.5% | 13.1% | 2017 | 36.1% | 22.2% | 27.8% | Road | 30.3% | 6.6% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 36.1% | 22.2% | 27.8% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 27.2% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 2017 | 44.1% | 0.0% | 35.3% | Road | 27.1% | 8.6% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 44.1% | 0.0% | 35.3% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 28.2% | 12.1% | 8.4% | 2017 | 16.1% | 15.4% | 0.0% | Home | 26.6% | 10.9% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 16.1% | 15.4% | 0.0% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 27.2% | 11.0% | 5.9% | 2017 | 20.6% | 50.0% | -11.8% | Road | 38.2% | 0.0% | 23.6% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 50.0% | -11.8% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 29.8% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 2017 | 47.1% | 21.4% | 38.3% | Home | 31.7% | 10.9% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 47.1% | 21.4% | 38.3% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 31.1% | 10.4% | 14.2% | 2017 | 31.8% | 5.9% | 18.2% | Home | 31.7% | 9.7% | 15.6% | L14 Days | 31.8% | 5.9% | 18.2% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | L2 Years | 30.4% | 12.7% | 12.6% | 2017 | 24.1% | 27.3% | 3.4% | Road | 30.9% | 10.7% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 27.3% | 3.4% |
| Nathan Karns | Royals | L2 Years | 32.8% | 12.6% | 13.8% | 2017 | 33.3% | 16.7% | 16.6% | Home | 24.1% | 10.2% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 16.7% | 16.6% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 35.8% | 15.1% | 20.2% | 2017 | 29.7% | 0.0% | 16.2% | Road | 34.5% | 16.4% | 15.7% | L14 Days | 29.7% | 0.0% | 16.2% |
| R.A. Dickey | Braves | L2 Years | 26.6% | 12.2% | 5.4% | 2017 | 40.9% | 0.0% | 22.7% | Home | 32.0% | 15.8% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 40.9% | 0.0% | 22.7% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 33.7% | 13.8% | 15.3% | 2017 | 35.7% | 16.7% | 17.8% | Home | 32.8% | 10.1% | 15.4% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 16.7% | 17.8% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 25.2% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 2017 | 28.6% | 0.0% | 14.3% | Home | 25.7% | 6.4% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 30.2% | 15.0% | 11.0% | 2017 | 41.9% | 66.7% | 19.3% | Road | 25.5% | 8.7% | 0.8% | L14 Days | 41.9% | 66.7% | 19.3% |
| Tyler Glasnow | Pirates | L2 Years | 24.7% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 2017 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -25.0% | Road | 39.4% | 20.0% | 18.2% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 0.0% | -25.0% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 33.7% | 11.8% | 13.7% | 2017 | 36.1% | 7.7% | 13.9% | Road | 32.4% | 9.1% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 36.1% | 7.7% | 13.9% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | Road | 35.5% | 20.0% | 21.9% | LH | 36.2% | 23.9% | 21.0% | L7Days | 31.5% | 9.8% | 8.8% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 26.7% | 3.3% | 5.6% | RH | 30.3% | 4.1% | 8.1% | L7Days | 26.3% | 6.7% | 3.5% |
| Mariners | Home | 32.1% | 8.1% | 6.4% | RH | 23.7% | 7.8% | 0.8% | L7Days | 30.3% | 17.7% | 4.7% |
| Brewers | Road | 27.4% | 17.6% | 13.2% | LH | 39.1% | 22.2% | 20.3% | L7Days | 26.4% | 20.0% | 5.0% |
| Yankees | Home | 26.4% | 20.0% | 3.8% | RH | 30.6% | 14.6% | 9.2% | L7Days | 35.1% | 14.8% | 16.2% |
| Cardinals | Road | 26.7% | 11.6% | 10.5% | LH | 30.8% | 3.6% | 15.4% | L7Days | 29.1% | 14.5% | 13.2% |
| Rays | Road | 35.9% | 21.2% | 15.2% | LH | 36.4% | 10.0% | 7.8% | L7Days | 30.9% | 4.7% | 8.9% |
| Braves | Home | 42.3% | 9.1% | 38.4% | LH | 18.5% | 12.5% | -11.1% | L7Days | 29.2% | 15.7% | 7.7% |
| Tigers | Road | 32.5% | 17.6% | 16.9% | RH | 45.7% | 14.0% | 32.1% | L7Days | 32.4% | 19.0% | 15.8% |
| White Sox | Road | 22.8% | 11.4% | 10.9% | RH | 27.8% | 11.6% | 11.7% | L7Days | 27.1% | 13.8% | 5.1% |
| Marlins | Home | 29.0% | 11.6% | 7.2% | RH | 33.8% | 8.7% | 15.2% | L7Days | 29.9% | 10.0% | 11.9% |
| Pirates | Road | 36.7% | 2.3% | 18.3% | RH | 31.5% | 4.4% | 11.0% | L7Days | 27.2% | 15.2% | 10.1% |
| Red Sox | Home | 39.0% | 5.0% | 20.4% | RH | 43.5% | 3.5% | 26.7% | L7Days | 25.8% | 7.5% | 6.4% |
| Rangers | Road | 25.6% | 13.5% | 5.9% | LH | 27.9% | 25.0% | -4.7% | L7Days | 34.9% | 10.4% | 15.2% |
| Nationals | Home | 30.1% | 13.4% | 12.2% | RH | 29.7% | 13.3% | 12.8% | L7Days | 35.1% | 12.1% | 16.6% |
| Twins | Home | 30.6% | 5.0% | 13.2% | LH | 33.0% | 7.7% | 15.4% | L7Days | 29.8% | 14.6% | 14.6% |
| Indians | Home | 34.7% | 11.8% | 18.4% | RH | 41.9% | 12.3% | 28.8% | L7Days | 33.8% | 6.3% | 14.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 39.4% | 3.4% | 24.5% | RH | 37.8% | 12.5% | 25.6% | L7Days | 35.5% | 21.1% | 18.9% |
| Athletics | Home | 27.1% | 17.8% | 7.6% | RH | 38.8% | 14.1% | 18.6% | L7Days | 35.9% | 8.9% | 22.1% |
| Orioles | Road | 36.9% | 22.0% | 22.3% | RH | 30.0% | 19.0% | 12.7% | L7Days | 38.5% | 14.3% | 16.7% |
| Rockies | Road | 31.4% | 7.7% | 9.2% | LH | 34.1% | 17.1% | 11.7% | L7Days | 33.1% | 4.8% | 15.6% |
| Royals | Home | 27.3% | 7.9% | 3.1% | RH | 28.7% | 16.0% | 4.3% | L7Days | 29.3% | 5.6% | 10.0% |
| Angels | Road | 27.9% | 5.6% | 13.9% | RH | 27.5% | 16.4% | 9.0% | L7Days | 25.3% | 8.5% | 5.5% |
| Dodgers | Home | 40.2% | 18.6% | 26.6% | LH | 31.5% | 5.6% | 12.6% | L7Days | 28.5% | 6.7% | 8.9% |
| Padres | Road | 30.5% | 11.8% | 9.4% | RH | 29.0% | 13.8% | 8.2% | L7Days | 22.7% | 8.3% | 6.0% |
| Astros | Road | 28.7% | 5.4% | 6.6% | LH | 24.1% | 11.1% | 4.2% | L7Days | 27.4% | 4.7% | 8.5% |
| Phillies | Road | 29.1% | 17.2% | 9.3% | RH | 24.9% | 15.2% | 2.6% | L7Days | 31.6% | 6.3% | 10.9% |
| Giants | Home | 25.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | RH | 28.0% | 6.3% | 11.0% | L7Days | 27.7% | 9.6% | 10.6% |
| Cubs | Home | 24.4% | 5.9% | 0.0% | RH | 26.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | L7Days | 26.8% | 12.5% | 7.8% |
| Reds | Home | 26.9% | 12.8% | 10.0% | RH | 25.0% | 9.3% | 2.9% | L7Days | 24.1% | 13.1% | 3.9% |
K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | FLA | 29.2% | 12.5% | 2.34 | 29.2% | 12.5% | 2.34 |
| Alec Asher | BAL | ||||||
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | ||||||
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 34.2% | 13.4% | 2.55 | 34.2% | 13.4% | 2.55 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 26.0% | 12.9% | 2.02 | 26.0% | 12.9% | 2.02 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 10.6% | 8.7% | 1.22 | 10.6% | 8.7% | 1.22 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 32.1% | 12.7% | 2.53 | 32.1% | 12.7% | 2.53 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 15.1% | 8.4% | 1.80 | 15.1% | 8.4% | 1.80 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 19.6% | 7.5% | 2.61 | 19.6% | 7.5% | 2.61 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 15.2% | 11.2% | 1.36 | 15.2% | 11.2% | 1.36 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 19.6% | 10.5% | 1.87 | 19.6% | 10.5% | 1.87 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 31.4% | 9.6% | 3.27 | 31.4% | 9.6% | 3.27 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 16.7% | 10.1% | 1.65 | 16.7% | 10.1% | 1.65 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 26.5% | 13.2% | 2.01 | 26.5% | 13.2% | 2.01 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 7.7% | 5.8% | 1.33 | 7.7% | 5.8% | 1.33 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 18.0% | 7.3% | 2.47 | 18.0% | 7.3% | 2.47 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 26.9% | 8.8% | 3.06 | 26.9% | 8.8% | 3.06 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 20.9% | 15.8% | 1.32 | 20.9% | 15.8% | 1.32 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 31.5% | 13.9% | 2.27 | 31.5% | 13.9% | 2.27 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 19.2% | 11.7% | 1.64 | 19.2% | 11.7% | 1.64 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 14.6% | 8.3% | 1.76 | 14.6% | 8.3% | 1.76 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 11.9% | 11.0% | 1.08 | 11.9% | 11.0% | 1.08 |
| Nathan Karns | KAN | 17.9% | 9.7% | 1.85 | 17.9% | 9.7% | 1.85 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 8.9% | 6.1% | 1.46 | 8.9% | 6.1% | 1.46 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 13.3% | 8.3% | 1.60 | 13.3% | 8.3% | 1.60 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 28.6% | 19.1% | 1.50 | 28.6% | 19.1% | 1.50 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 18.8% | 9.5% | 1.98 | 18.8% | 9.5% | 1.98 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 25.5% | 9.7% | 2.63 | 25.5% | 9.7% | 2.63 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | 7.1% | 6.3% | 1.13 | 7.1% | 6.3% | 1.13 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 14.3% | 7.9% | 1.81 | 14.3% | 7.9% | 1.81 |
There are several standouts here through a couple of starts with Sean Manaea being the most eye-opening. Only Arrieta and on the later slates, Verlander are going the wrong way, but it’s not really concerning yet.
ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.34 ERA – 4.30 SIERA – 4.24 xFIP – 4.30 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | FLA | 3 | 3.53 | 0.53 | 3.42 | 0.42 | 6.45 | 3.45 | 4.68 | 1.68 | 3 | 3.53 | 0.53 | 3.42 | 0.42 | 6.45 | 3.45 |
| Alec Asher | BAL | 4.67 | |||||||||||||||
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 5.41 | |||||||||||||||
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 1 | 3.39 | 2.39 | 2.76 | 1.76 | 2.06 | 1.06 | 4.84 | 3.84 | 1 | 3.39 | 2.39 | 2.76 | 1.76 | 2.06 | 1.06 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 3.65 | 2.75 | -0.9 | 3.1 | -0.55 | 2.63 | -1.02 | 3.63 | -0.02 | 3.65 | 2.75 | -0.9 | 3.1 | -0.55 | 2.63 | -1.02 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 1.64 | 5.6 | 3.96 | 4.82 | 3.18 | 3.68 | 2.04 | 4.08 | 2.44 | 1.64 | 5.6 | 3.96 | 4.82 | 3.18 | 3.68 | 2.04 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 1.23 | 2.38 | 1.15 | 2.75 | 1.52 | 1.93 | 0.7 | 3.00 | 1.77 | 1.23 | 2.39 | 1.16 | 2.75 | 1.52 | 1.93 | 0.7 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 2.57 | 3.76 | 1.19 | 3.66 | 1.09 | 4.74 | 2.17 | 5.03 | 2.46 | 2.57 | 3.76 | 1.19 | 3.66 | 1.09 | 4.74 | 2.17 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 5.25 | 4.21 | -1.04 | 4.37 | -0.88 | 6.62 | 1.37 | 3.03 | -2.22 | 5.25 | 4.21 | -1.04 | 4.37 | -0.88 | 6.62 | 1.37 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.69 | 4.71 | 4.02 | 4.48 | 3.79 | 3.8 | 3.11 | 3.67 | 2.98 | 0.69 | 4.71 | 4.02 | 4.48 | 3.79 | 3.8 | 3.11 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 1.5 | 3.37 | 1.87 | 3.38 | 1.88 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 3.86 | 2.36 | 1.5 | 3.37 | 1.87 | 3.38 | 1.88 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 2.08 | 2.79 | 0.71 | 3.21 | 1.13 | 2.64 | 0.56 | 3.38 | 1.30 | 2.08 | 2.79 | 0.71 | 3.21 | 1.13 | 2.64 | 0.56 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 4.5 | 4.38 | -0.12 | 4.58 | 0.08 | 5.87 | 1.37 | 3.89 | -0.61 | 4.5 | 4.38 | -0.12 | 4.58 | 0.08 | 5.87 | 1.37 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 0 | 3.11 | 3.11 | 3.21 | 3.21 | 1.64 | 1.64 | 3.51 | 3.51 | 0 | 3.11 | 3.11 | 3.21 | 3.21 | 1.64 | 1.64 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 0.9 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 5.44 | 4.54 | 3.25 | 2.35 | 3.74 | 2.84 | 0.9 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 5.44 | 4.54 | 3.25 | 2.35 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 6.17 | 4.55 | -1.62 | 5.11 | -1.06 | 7.15 | 0.98 | 3.61 | -2.56 | 6.17 | 4.56 | -1.61 | 5.11 | -1.06 | 7.15 | 0.98 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 1.35 | 3.4 | 2.05 | 3.75 | 2.4 | 1.75 | 0.4 | 2.75 | 1.40 | 1.35 | 3.41 | 2.06 | 3.75 | 2.4 | 1.75 | 0.4 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 6.3 | 3.97 | -2.33 | 4.09 | -2.21 | 4.65 | -1.65 | 3.26 | -3.04 | 6.3 | 3.97 | -2.33 | 4.09 | -2.21 | 4.65 | -1.65 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 2.77 | 1.64 | -1.13 | 1.51 | -1.26 | 3.03 | 0.26 | 3.06 | 0.29 | 2.77 | 1.64 | -1.13 | 1.51 | -1.26 | 3.03 | 0.26 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 5.73 | 4.2 | -1.53 | 4.4 | -1.33 | 5.95 | 0.22 | 4.72 | -1.01 | 5.73 | 4.2 | -1.53 | 4.4 | -1.33 | 5.95 | 0.22 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 2.7 | 4.12 | 1.42 | 4.42 | 1.72 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 4.98 | 2.28 | 2.7 | 4.12 | 1.42 | 4.42 | 1.72 | 3.4 | 0.7 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 7.71 | 5.52 | -2.19 | 5.98 | -1.73 | 8.31 | 0.6 | 3.48 | -4.23 | 7.71 | 5.53 | -2.18 | 5.98 | -1.73 | 8.31 | 0.6 |
| Nathan Karns | KAN | 7.11 | 5 | -2.11 | 5.23 | -1.88 | 5.79 | -1.32 | 4.24 | -2.87 | 7.11 | 5.02 | -2.09 | 5.23 | -1.88 | 5.79 | -1.32 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 1.8 | 5.44 | 3.64 | 5.39 | 3.59 | 3.35 | 1.55 | 5.44 | 3.64 | 1.8 | 5.44 | 3.64 | 5.39 | 3.59 | 3.35 | 1.55 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 4.76 | 4.59 | -0.17 | 4.49 | -0.27 | 3.66 | -1.1 | 4.64 | -0.12 | 4.76 | 4.62 | -0.14 | 4.49 | -0.27 | 3.66 | -1.1 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 7.15 | 2.71 | -4.44 | 3.16 | -3.99 | 3.48 | -3.67 | 3.70 | -3.45 | 7.15 | 2.71 | -4.44 | 3.16 | -3.99 | 3.48 | -3.67 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 4.09 | 3.59 | -0.5 | 3.97 | -0.12 | 2.41 | -1.68 | 3.88 | -0.21 | 4.09 | 3.59 | -0.5 | 3.97 | -0.12 | 2.41 | -1.68 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 6.35 | 3.08 | -3.27 | 2.72 | -3.63 | 6.48 | 0.13 | 4.29 | -2.06 | 6.35 | 3.08 | -3.27 | 2.72 | -3.63 | 6.48 | 0.13 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | 27 | 11.02 | -15.98 | 11.69 | -15.31 | 10.75 | -16.25 | 4.09 | -22.91 | 27 | 11.13 | -15.87 | 11.69 | -15.31 | 10.75 | -16.25 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 10.61 | 5.31 | -5.3 | 5.56 | -5.05 | 4.77 | -5.84 | 3.91 | -6.70 | 10.61 | 5.32 | -5.29 | 5.56 | -5.05 | 4.77 | -5.84 |
Some early pitchers are separated from their estimators by four runs through two starts.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.2 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | FLA | 0.262 | 0.083 | -0.179 | 42.9% | 0.214 | 0.0% | 82.9% | 88.5 | 7.30% | 3.90% | 315 |
| Alec Asher | BAL | 0.343 | 87 | 1.20% | 0.90% | 83 | ||||||
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 0.280 | 90.9 | 8.40% | 5.30% | 371 | ||||||
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 0.269 | 0.263 | -0.006 | 63.2% | 0.158 | 0.0% | 76.3% | 88.8 | 7.90% | 4.90% | 454 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.317 | 0.333 | 0.016 | 39.4% | 0.242 | 16.7% | 86.2% | 87.5 | 4.10% | 2.50% | 490 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.294 | 0.250 | -0.044 | 45.7% | 0.314 | 0.0% | 84.8% | 85.3 | 4.80% | 2.90% | 461 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 0.293 | 0.212 | -0.081 | 32.4% | 0.206 | 6.3% | 82.4% | 89.2 | 5.70% | 3.40% | 542 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 0.237 | 0.211 | -0.026 | 69.2% | 0.128 | 0.0% | 87.0% | 89.3 | 3.10% | 2.00% | 192 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.336 | 0.242 | -0.094 | 32.4% | 0.243 | 6.3% | 87.9% | 87 | 6.40% | 3.80% | 517 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.219 | 0.088 | -0.131 | 47.1% | 0.118 | 21.4% | 88.5% | 88.9 | 6.80% | 4.20% | 470 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.296 | 0.235 | -0.061 | 61.8% | 0.118 | 11.1% | 78.2% | 88.7 | 6.50% | 4.00% | 371 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 0.260 | 0.207 | -0.053 | 46.7% | 0.1 | 23.1% | 79.6% | 87.2 | 4.50% | 2.50% | 445 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.257 | 0.182 | -0.075 | 33.3% | 0.25 | 6.7% | 84.4% | 90.4 | 8.20% | 5.30% | 499 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 0.319 | 0.182 | -0.137 | 39.4% | 0.212 | 23.1% | 81.4% | 91 | 3.80% | 2.50% | 338 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 0.322 | 0.212 | -0.11 | 32.3% | 0.226 | 14.3% | 84.2% | 88.1 | 7.60% | 4.70% | 471 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 0.232 | 0.188 | -0.044 | 30.6% | 0.194 | 11.1% | 90.3% | 88.9 | 4.70% | 3.00% | 534 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.269 | 0.265 | -0.004 | 29.4% | 0.206 | 0.0% | 85.5% | 88.4 | 7.80% | 4.50% | 528 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 0.255 | 0.310 | 0.055 | 32.1% | 0.214 | 0.0% | 79.0% | 86 | 5.60% | 3.40% | 425 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 0.254 | 0.281 | 0.027 | 68.8% | 0.188 | 0.0% | 89.6% | 88.9 | 5.50% | 2.80% | 181 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 0.290 | 0.290 | 0 | 48.5% | 0.091 | 0.0% | 80.0% | 88.8 | 7.70% | 4.40% | 417 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 0.295 | 0.233 | -0.062 | 50.0% | 0.114 | 0.0% | 84.1% | 89.2 | 7.10% | 4.30% | 504 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 0.260 | 0.222 | -0.038 | 48.3% | 0.138 | 9.1% | 82.0% | 88.5 | 7.80% | 4.80% | 411 |
| Nathan Karns | KAN | 0.283 | 0.412 | 0.129 | 50.0% | 0.167 | 0.0% | 84.6% | 90.4 | 6.80% | 3.80% | 237 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 0.306 | 0.297 | -0.009 | 50.0% | 0.139 | 15.4% | 92.1% | 90.7 | 9.30% | 5.60% | 421 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 0.276 | 0.409 | 0.133 | 63.6% | 0.227 | 33.3% | 87.5% | 88.1 | 7.60% | 5.10% | 488 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 0.267 | 0.259 | -0.008 | 64.3% | 0.143 | 0.0% | 80.0% | 90.4 | 7.70% | 5.10% | 388 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.313 | 0.286 | -0.027 | 50.0% | 0.176 | 0.0% | 93.4% | 87.8 | 6.00% | 3.60% | 518 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 0.304 | 0.370 | 0.066 | 54.8% | 0.258 | 0.0% | 92.5% | 87.9 | 4.40% | 2.70% | 409 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | 0.310 | 0.500 | 0.19 | 25.0% | 0.625 | 0.0% | 88.9% | 86.6 | 4.40% | 1.90% | 45 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 0.289 | 0.429 | 0.14 | 42.9% | 0.2 | 15.4% | 90.0% | 88.1 | 5.20% | 3.20% | 426 |
A 62.5% line drive rate might be what happens when you walk 35.7% of the batters you face in your first start.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Lance McCullers (1) has come out of the gate dominant and is in a nice spot in Oakland today. It’s been all strikeouts and ground balls. Only 10 batted balls have not been on the ground in two starts and he’s not walking anybody, which should allow him to get deeper into games more consistently.
Value Tier Two
Sean Manaea (5) has been missing bats and generating grounders at elite rates through two starts. His cost remains low because he’s been allowing runs, but that seems a sequencing issue more than anything else. Houston has some RH pop, but the environment is pitcher friendly.
Chris Sale (2) costs some money today and that’s really the only thing that keeps him out of the top tier. It looks like he’s gone back to the pitcher he was prior to last year’s experiment. The lone drawback would be that he has been allowing a bit too much hard contact in the air and the Rays do have some RH power when they occasionally make contact.
Value Tier Three
Justin Verlander (3t) bumps up a tier for just $8.5K on FanDuel. He has the largest price differential between sites ($1.8K). There’s not much reason to believe his 2016 resurgence won’t continue. Realize that he is an extreme fly ball pitcher at this point, allowing 30 HRs last year.
Jacob deGrom (3t) only struck out three in his last start and it didn’t appear he had his best stuff, but he did miss 11 bats. There’s not much reason to expect anything other than a solid outing in Miami.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Tyler Chatwood is a reasonably priced pitcher in a great environment tonight. He might be a league average arm and more than just a ground ball generator at this point, but I’m not entirely ready to trust his new found bat missing ability yet, especially in this spot, while he could end up with too many walks.
Matt Moore can blow up a lineup, but even a near competent LHP facing the Rockies in San Francisco is a great matchup.
Kenta Maeda really has one drawback today, but it’s a significant one that should probably prevent players from paying $10K for him on DraftKings. He’s gone exactly five innings in each of his first two starts and completed six innings or more in just nine of his last 26 starts last year.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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