Advanced Stats – Pitching: Saturday, August 5th
Big, big slate on Saturday night. Twelve games. There’s only one pitcher on either site who cracks the $10K mark and it’s not really a guy you’d expect this year. There’s some upside on this board. We can work with it.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | -0.5 | 4.73 | 6.04 | 47.2% | 0.96 | 3.98 | 4.44 | MIL | 96 | 93 | 54 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | -5.5 | 3.78 | 5.42 | 53.0% | 0.94 | 3.71 | 3.71 | TOR | 94 | 93 | 143 |
| Chris Stratton | SFO | -3 | 5.52 | 6.2 | 46.8% | 0.93 | 5.69 | 3.06 | ARI | 81 | 101 | 84 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 1.8 | 4.08 | 6.42 | 49.1% | 1.04 | 4.07 | 3.07 | MIN | 100 | 88 | 74 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 4.9 | 4.59 | 5.76 | 32.5% | 1 | 4.79 | 6.26 | ATL | 88 | 86 | 86 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 7.2 | 3.93 | 6.08 | 37.6% | 1.06 | 4.04 | 4.95 | SEA | 95 | 97 | 105 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 0.3 | 3.78 | 5.59 | 44.0% | 1.09 | 3.54 | 2.48 | NYY | 99 | 112 | 72 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | -5.4 | 3.59 | 5.2 | 36.0% | 0.97 | 4.11 | 3.68 | PIT | 91 | 88 | 95 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 5.4 | 3.81 | 5.55 | 43.8% | 1.13 | 3.62 | 4.48 | CHW | 92 | 101 | 80 |
| Drew VerHagen | DET | 1.7 | 4.03 | 65.2% | 1.02 | 4.56 | 5.03 | BAL | 99 | 97 | 111 | |
| Edwin Jackson | WAS | 1 | 5.13 | 5.76 | 38.6% | 0.96 | 5.78 | 5.29 | CHC | 100 | 91 | 102 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 7.4 | 4.3 | 6.06 | 49.9% | 1.06 | 4.59 | 5.16 | KAN | 90 | 88 | 59 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | -2.4 | 4.02 | 5.93 | 45.3% | 0.97 | 3.89 | 4.69 | SDG | 80 | 88 | 74 |
| James Shields | CHW | -0.1 | 5.02 | 5.57 | 40.0% | 1.13 | 5.62 | 5.33 | BOS | 92 | 91 | 136 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 3.2 | 3.98 | 6.25 | 43.0% | 0.96 | 4.13 | 4.07 | WAS | 100 | 107 | 50 |
| Jon Gray | COL | -3.9 | 3.79 | 5.37 | 44.1% | 1.39 | 3.29 | 2.76 | PHI | 76 | 89 | 80 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 2.4 | 4.27 | 5.51 | 41.2% | 1.09 | 4.87 | 3.58 | CLE | 111 | 107 | 93 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | -0.2 | 4.77 | 5.65 | 50.7% | 1.04 | 4.38 | 4.47 | TEX | 81 | 97 | 99 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | -1.5 | 4.66 | 5.46 | 45.8% | 1.02 | 4.45 | 5.55 | CIN | 98 | 97 | 87 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 7.3 | 3.8 | 6. | 57.6% | 1.02 | 3.63 | 3.84 | STL | 88 | 95 | 66 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | -1.9 | 4.48 | 5.92 | 32.4% | 0.94 | 4.73 | 5.9 | HOU | 126 | 132 | 135 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | -1.8 | 4.35 | 5.57 | 40.4% | 1 | 4.56 | 4.64 | MIA | 104 | 97 | 84 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 2.2 | 4.35 | 5.41 | 40.3% | 1.39 | 5.57 | 3.27 | COL | 90 | 81 | 93 |
| Paul Blackburn | OAK | -11.2 | 5.32 | 6.35 | 51.2% | 0.91 | 5.01 | 5.18 | ANA | 101 | 97 | 131 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 2.8 | 3.42 | 5.57 | 0.432 | 0.91 | 3.29 | 4.33 | NYM | 93 | 102 | 76 |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | -1.6 | 4.69 | 5.95 | 0.427 | 0.91 | 4.69 | 4.86 | LOS | 102 | 109 | 93 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | -5.4 | 4.18 | 5.62 | 0.442 | 0.93 | 4.34 | 3.13 | SFO | 77 | 81 | 89 |
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 2 | 4.25 | 5.27 | 0.417 | 0.91 | 4.24 | OAK | 85 | 85 | 120 | |
| Wade Miley | BAL | -5.1 | 4.39 | 5.52 | 0.485 | 1.02 | 4.22 | 4.81 | DET | 91 | 125 | 100 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | -1.6 | 4.36 | 5.74 | 0.48 | 0.96 | 4.51 | 3.94 | TAM | 111 | 108 | 112 |
Charlie Morton has been kind of hit or miss with the strikeouts (eight or more five times, six or fewer in the rest of his 15 starts), which works out to a career high 25.8 K% and 16.8 K-BB%. His 50.4 GB% is actually his lowest mark in seven years with an 85.5 mph aEV. The Blue Jays have been underwhelming this season, but are the hottest offense in the league over the last week (4.1 K-BB%, 18.4 HR/FB).
Danny Salazar has struck out 16 of 44 batters since returning from the DL (36.4 K%, 20.8 SwStr%). Whatever else is going on, that plays, but he’s walked just two with a 26.9 Hard%. As we all know, strikeouts have never been the issue. Walks and hard contact have been. In fact, he still has a 10.2 BB% and 88.7 mph aEV this year, but we haven’t seen much of that since returning. The Yankees are a difficult matchup (16.6 HR/FB vs RHP), but slumping (16.9 K-BB% over the last week).
Dinelson Lamet is blasting through the majors with a 21.2 K-BB% that’s higher than any mark he’s ever put up in the minors aside from four innings of rookie ball in 2014. That’s not the norm and his 55.3 F-Strike% is five points below league average, but he’s generating swings on 31.4% of pitches outside the strike zone. While you always want to be skeptical of those guys that make a tremendous leap upon arrival in the majors, every time he’s looked like he was fading, he’s bounced back, as in his last two starts (12.2 IP – 4 ER – 3 BB – 13 K – 51 BF) after two rougher ones. The strikeout rate is down a bit over the last month, but it seems a more acceptable range and still a quality rate. He’s allowed the hardest contact on the board (88.7 mph aEV, 12% Barrels/BBE, 40.7% 95+ mph EV), but is in a great spot in Pittsburgh for that particular issue (9.1 HR/FB at home), even if his strikeout rate could take a small hit (17.9 K% at home, 18.6% vs RHP).
Drew Pomeranz has allowed more than two ERs in just five starts this year (out of 21), but his recent peripherals have been all over the place, walking at least four in three of his last five and striking out four or fewer in three of his last six. At least HRs haven’t been a problem and when taken as a whole, his 15.5 K-BB% is above average this year. The good news is that the White Sox are free swingers (6.8 BB% vs LHP) that don’t make a lot of hard contact (28 Hard% vs LHP). They have a 0.0 Hard-Soft% over the last week.
Gerrit Cole had a great July. Aside from the eight runs in 32 innings, he struck out 26.2% of batters, finally boosting his season strikeout rate above league average, although with a SwStr% that still remains a bit below it. His 20.8 K-BB% for the month is elite stuff, but he dominated contact as well (50 GB%, -6.9 Hard-Soft%). This is the guy the Pirates always hoped he’d be. On top of that, he gets to host the Padres (25.3 K%, 6.9 Hard-Soft% vs RHP).
Jon Gray has three uncharacteristic starts with just a single strikeout this year, all coming in a five start stretch in which he accumulated his highest total of the season as well (10). His last three starts have been a massive improvement (24.3 K-BB%), though he’s allowed a lot more hard contact (36%), bringing his season aEV all the way up to 83.7 mph, still lowest on the slate. While he is at home tonight, it’s not a terrible matchup against the Phillies (15.2 K-BB% vs RHP, 6.3 HR/FB last seven days).
Luis Castillo has pitched at least two outs into the sixth inning with at least six strikeouts in six of his last seven starts. While, like Lamet, his 26.2 K% is above any minor league mark he’s generated above rookie ball, it’s supported by his SwStr%. Unlike LaMet, he’s been a quality contact manager as well (57.6 GB%, 5.6 Hard-Soft%, 3.2% Barrels/BBE). A guy who can generate a lot of ground balls or more importantly, keep hard contact in the air to the minimum in Cincinnati is going to be a valuable pitcher. The Cardinals are a favorable matchup and have a 30 K% with a 5.6 HR/FB over the last week.
Taijuan Walker struck out 10 of 24 Cardinals last time out. He’s been inconsistent and actually a bit better at home despite the harder contact. He’s been a very average road pitcher in both peripherals and batted ball/contact profile overall and that’s fine here. He’s in the best run prevention spot on the board (Giants 5.6 HR/FB and 4.5 Hard-Soft% at home).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Cole Hamels (.242 – 70% – 12.5) had a quality start last time out (6 IP – 3 ER – 0 BB – 7 K). His walk rate is at least down from last year and he’s putting the ball on the ground 50.6% of the time this year, but with an 88.1 mph aEV. How that translates to a .242 BABIP, I have no idea. Minnesota has a 10.3 HR/FB vs LHP. It’s not a bad spot, but you never know what you’re going to get out of him. Drop him down another few hundred on either site and I might be interested.
Danny Duffy (.314 – 76% – 5.3) has pitched into the seventh inning in four of his last five starts, but has turned into more of a contact manager than a bat misser over the course of the season. While his 11.3 SwStr% for the season is still above average and suggests a few more strikeouts, both his SwStr% and K% have been league average over the last month. While he’s had a 34 Hard% over the last month, he’s allowed only 29.5% of contact above a 95 mph EV. The Mariners have just a 9.5 HR/FB vs LHP, but a 10.1 K-BB% too.
Lance Lynn (.225 – 81.9% – 15.6) makes me look like an idiot more times than not, but I remain strong on this fade. He’s been a solid contact manager (29.6% 95+ mph EV), but everything else is just average, while his strikeout rate has even cratered over the last month. It’s not a bad matchup, but can be a difficult park for a pitcher who has allowed a career high 21 HRs this year. Significant issues with LHBs remain (.342 wOBA, 12 HRs this year, .341 wOBA career).
Paul Blackburn (.242 – 75.4% – 8.3) has just a 3.3 K-BB%.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Felix Hernandez looks to have had a July strikeout spike, but has struck out five or fewer in five of his last seven starts, in which he has a 9.8 BB% and just a 38.9 GB%. That’s lead to 16 HRs in 13 starts this season and 10.4% Barrels/BBE. That might actually work in Kansas City against a free swinging bunch without a lot of power and a pathetic 4.8 HR/FB over the last month. It’s not a profile I want to pay more than $8K for though. Late Note – Just as I’m going to post, he’s been placed on the DL, but is still the listed starter on MLB.com. It looks like it’s going to be Marco Gonzalez possibly?
Jordan Montgomery had been doing quality work, but often struggles to get through even six innings (just 10 of 20 starts this year) and did not have a strong July, although the peripherals were better than the results and his 23.7 Hard% was his lowest mark in any month yet. That said, Cleveland has a 6.3 K-BB% against LHP. I equivocate this matchup to the one Gray faces at Coors against the Phillies.
Dan Straily has struck out four or fewer in six of his last seven starts, a period over which he has allowed nine HRs and not gone past five innings four times. The positives are a matchup with the Braves and 28.3% 95+ mph EV.
Chris Stratton has put up near league average peripherals in just over 200 AAA innings since last year, but just a 1.0 K-BB% in 24 major league innings. The 26 year-old was the ninth ranked prospect in the organization with a 45 FV grade and a fifth starter’s profile. He’s in a nice spot at home against the Diamondbacks (24.6 K% on the road, 23.1 K% vs RHP).
Nick Pivetta isn’t disqualified via Coors (Rockies 14.9 K-BB% vs RHP), but because of an 88.6 mph aEV and a .408 wOBA (44.7 Hard%) vs RHBs. There’s some skepticism in his strikeout rate as well.
Tyler Skaggs has not pitched since April and had just a 2.1 K-BB% in three AAA rehab starts with a high of 4.2 innings. He returns in a high upside spot though (A’s 24.5 K%, 9.6 HR/FB vs LHP).
Kyle Gibson is still the most frustrating bastard in the league. His above average ground ball rate and average SwStr% should have amounted to something. I’d love to see a team with a quality pitching coach or different organizational philosophy buy low on him.
Drew VerHagen has just a 1.7 K-BB% through 54 major league innings, 49 of them in relief. In 97 AAA innings this season, he has a 6.1% mark.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 15.4% | 6.3% | Home | 18.8% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 13.9% | 4.2% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Years | 24.1% | 8.7% | Home | 25.3% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 7.8% |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | L2 Years | 13.2% | 12.3% | Home | 11.8% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 5.6% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 21.7% | 8.3% | Road | 21.4% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 5.7% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Years | 20.7% | 8.3% | Road | 21.0% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 6.0% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 22.9% | 6.5% | Home | 21.3% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 3.7% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | L2 Years | 27.3% | 9.8% | Home | 28.7% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 4.6% |
| Dinelson Lamet | Padres | L2 Years | 30.0% | 8.8% | Road | 30.6% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 5.9% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 26.1% | 8.7% | Home | 26.7% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 10.0% |
| Drew VerHagen | Tigers | L2 Years | 11.8% | 8.3% | Road | 14.6% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| Edwin Jackson | Nationals | L2 Years | 16.1% | 10.3% | Road | 13.2% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 9.4% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Years | 19.9% | 8.5% | Road | 18.2% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 10.0% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 20.9% | 6.2% | Home | 20.1% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 21.8% | 10.9% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 17.9% | 10.6% | Road | 14.3% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 17.3% | 10.7% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.5% | 7.0% | Home | 22.4% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 7.7% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | L2 Years | 24.8% | 8.0% | Home | 25.4% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 2.1% |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Years | 22.3% | 7.5% | Road | 18.6% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 7.9% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 16.1% | 9.2% | Home | 15.3% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 10.3% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | L2 Years | 19.5% | 9.8% | Road | 23.4% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 14.6% |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | L2 Years | 26.2% | 9.2% | Home | 30.6% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 6.1% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 22.1% | 9.0% | Road | 23.0% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 16.9% | 11.3% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 20.5% | 7.5% | Home | 20.5% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 11.8% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Years | 24.0% | 9.8% | Road | 18.6% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 4.4% |
| Paul Blackburn | Athletics | L2 Years | 10.6% | 7.3% | Road | 5.4% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 11.0% | 6.9% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 29.3% | 8.2% | Road | 31.7% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 8.3% |
| Seth Lugo | Mets | L2 Years | 16.5% | 6.9% | Home | 17.7% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 12.2% | 0.0% |
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 20.7% | 6.9% | Road | 21.1% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 34.0% | 8.5% |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | L2 Years | 23.2% | 9.4% | Home | 23.8% | 11.1% | L14 Days | ||
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 19.1% | 8.5% | Home | 20.8% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 8.3% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 18.0% | 6.8% | Road | 15.3% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 22.8% | 5.3% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | Road | 25.1% | 8.7% | RH | 25.5% | 8.6% | L7Days | 30.8% | 9.5% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 20.9% | 9.3% | RH | 20.5% | 8.5% | L7Days | 15.4% | 11.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 24.6% | 8.5% | RH | 23.1% | 9.5% | L7Days | 26.2% | 10.5% |
| Twins | Home | 21.4% | 10.1% | LH | 20.7% | 9.6% | L7Days | 21.9% | 9.6% |
| Braves | Home | 19.8% | 7.1% | RH | 20.0% | 7.1% | L7Days | 18.7% | 8.2% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.0% | 7.3% | LH | 19.2% | 9.1% | L7Days | 17.8% | 7.1% |
| Yankees | Road | 22.3% | 9.1% | RH | 22.6% | 9.4% | L7Days | 24.4% | 7.5% |
| Pirates | Home | 17.9% | 9.0% | RH | 18.6% | 8.3% | L7Days | 18.7% | 7.6% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.9% | 6.1% | LH | 21.9% | 6.8% | L7Days | 27.9% | 5.6% |
| Orioles | Home | 22.1% | 7.2% | RH | 22.0% | 6.8% | L7Days | 20.5% | 8.0% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.2% | 10.1% | RH | 22.2% | 8.9% | L7Days | 26.5% | 10.1% |
| Royals | Home | 18.9% | 6.9% | RH | 20.4% | 6.4% | L7Days | 19.0% | 6.3% |
| Padres | Road | 26.1% | 7.3% | RH | 25.3% | 7.7% | L7Days | 25.6% | 6.5% |
| Red Sox | Home | 18.2% | 9.3% | RH | 19.1% | 8.6% | L7Days | 18.3% | 8.3% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.5% | 8.5% | RH | 20.0% | 9.1% | L7Days | 22.5% | 4.2% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.0% | 7.7% | RH | 23.3% | 8.1% | L7Days | 20.1% | 8.9% |
| Indians | Home | 18.7% | 10.2% | LH | 16.7% | 10.4% | L7Days | 21.5% | 9.2% |
| Rangers | Road | 26.2% | 8.1% | RH | 23.9% | 8.9% | L7Days | 26.6% | 5.7% |
| Reds | Home | 21.8% | 9.0% | RH | 20.9% | 8.7% | L7Days | 18.9% | 9.4% |
| Cardinals | Road | 22.0% | 8.6% | RH | 22.0% | 8.8% | L7Days | 30.6% | 8.8% |
| Astros | Home | 16.4% | 8.0% | RH | 17.2% | 8.1% | L7Days | 13.4% | 7.8% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.2% | 6.5% | RH | 20.4% | 7.5% | L7Days | 18.0% | 9.5% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.2% | 7.8% | RH | 22.6% | 7.7% | L7Days | 21.6% | 9.7% |
| Angels | Home | 18.3% | 7.8% | RH | 19.6% | 8.0% | L7Days | 14.6% | 8.2% |
| Mets | Home | 19.5% | 8.4% | LH | 23.5% | 7.2% | L7Days | 24.3% | 6.6% |
| Dodgers | Road | 22.6% | 10.9% | RH | 22.7% | 10.4% | L7Days | 21.9% | 11.2% |
| Giants | Home | 19.0% | 7.1% | RH | 19.2% | 7.5% | L7Days | 17.9% | 8.4% |
| Athletics | Road | 25.1% | 9.2% | LH | 24.5% | 8.9% | L7Days | 17.4% | 10.3% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.9% | 8.9% | LH | 18.7% | 8.1% | L7Days | 22.2% | 7.9% |
| Rays | Home | 24.9% | 9.8% | RH | 25.0% | 8.9% | L7Days | 24.0% | 11.7% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 36.2% | 13.9% | 21.4% | 2017 | 37.4% | 12.6% | 23.0% | Home | 39.4% | 14.1% | 23.0% | L14 Days | 44.1% | 31.3% | 30.5% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Years | 28.7% | 15.9% | 8.8% | 2017 | 30.6% | 15.9% | 8.9% | Home | 29.6% | 17.6% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 16.1% | 7.7% | -16.2% |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | L2 Years | 25.3% | 8.0% | 3.8% | 2017 | 29.8% | 9.1% | 6.4% | Home | 23.1% | 8.3% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 0.0% | 23.1% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 32.3% | 13.1% | 14.2% | 2017 | 38.4% | 12.5% | 25.9% | Road | 32.0% | 12.6% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 38.9% | 16.7% | 30.6% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.9% | 11.6% | 15.5% | 2017 | 34.4% | 11.4% | 13.8% | Road | 31.8% | 15.1% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 36.6% | 13.0% | 14.6% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 32.0% | 9.8% | 13.7% | 2017 | 29.6% | 5.3% | 12.0% | Home | 35.8% | 8.9% | 19.0% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | L2 Years | 32.4% | 13.8% | 17.9% | 2017 | 29.2% | 20.0% | 13.1% | Home | 32.8% | 16.3% | 18.4% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 9.1% | 7.7% |
| Dinelson Lamet | Padres | L2 Years | 39.3% | 16.7% | 25.3% | 2017 | 39.3% | 16.7% | 25.3% | Road | 43.4% | 21.2% | 28.9% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 0.0% | 23.5% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 31.6% | 13.1% | 11.6% | 2017 | 32.1% | 12.3% | 10.3% | Home | 32.6% | 15.6% | 14.5% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 12.5% | 21.2% |
| Drew VerHagen | Tigers | L2 Years | 29.8% | 21.9% | 10.5% | 2017 | 64.3% | 50.0% | 57.2% | Road | 24.3% | 20.0% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 64.3% | 50.0% | 57.2% |
| Edwin Jackson | Nationals | L2 Years | 31.7% | 14.5% | 16.5% | 2017 | 29.3% | 17.9% | 3.7% | Road | 39.6% | 17.9% | 22.9% | L14 Days | 28.2% | 15.0% | 2.6% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Years | 28.6% | 17.9% | 11.5% | 2017 | 30.8% | 23.5% | 10.4% | Road | 26.6% | 19.0% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 38.2% | 21.4% | 20.5% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 31.1% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 2017 | 31.4% | 16.2% | 7.4% | Home | 30.7% | 10.6% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 7.7% | -8.4% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 33.3% | 17.7% | 16.8% | 2017 | 35.1% | 16.7% | 15.9% | Road | 34.9% | 16.8% | 16.0% | L14 Days | 35.2% | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 33.3% | 15.8% | 17.9% | 2017 | 34.4% | 20.0% | 18.9% | Home | 33.9% | 14.2% | 16.9% | L14 Days | 12.9% | 10.0% | -6.5% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | L2 Years | 31.7% | 12.7% | 12.5% | 2017 | 30.9% | 15.4% | 9.6% | Home | 28.2% | 13.4% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 30.0% | 15.2% |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Years | 25.8% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 2017 | 25.8% | 10.7% | 9.5% | Road | 23.2% | 11.3% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% | -12.5% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 32.2% | 14.7% | 15.0% | 2017 | 36.8% | 19.3% | 22.9% | Home | 33.9% | 18.7% | 17.8% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 0.0% | 9.5% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.9% | 13.8% | 13.6% | 2017 | 30.1% | 15.6% | 10.9% | Road | 37.8% | 20.0% | 19.4% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | L2 Years | 27.0% | 17.9% | 5.6% | 2017 | 27.0% | 17.9% | 5.6% | Home | 28.6% | 18.8% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 0.0% | -5.3% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 29.8% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 2017 | 28.7% | 11.1% | 8.2% | Road | 30.3% | 9.6% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 15.7% | 6.7% | -21.6% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 29.1% | 13.4% | 11.2% | 2017 | 27.6% | 13.7% | 12.4% | Home | 29.6% | 8.5% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 16.7% | 13.3% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Years | 37.9% | 17.2% | 22.9% | 2017 | 37.9% | 17.2% | 22.9% | Road | 38.4% | 15.1% | 24.9% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 0.0% | 6.3% |
| Paul Blackburn | Athletics | L2 Years | 22.8% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 2017 | 22.8% | 8.3% | 3.3% | Road | 21.5% | 11.8% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 27.8% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 2017 | 28.9% | 9.5% | 4.7% | Road | 24.8% | 5.7% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 8.3% | 18.7% |
| Seth Lugo | Mets | L2 Years | 36.3% | 11.3% | 19.6% | 2017 | 34.2% | 12.5% | 17.6% | Home | 36.7% | 11.9% | 16.8% | L14 Days | 51.2% | 25.0% | 41.9% |
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 30.1% | 14.0% | 12.2% | 2017 | 34.0% | 10.4% | 18.7% | Road | 30.4% | 14.5% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 18.2% | 19.3% |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | L2 Years | 31.4% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 2017 | 28.1% | 10.0% | 4.9% | Home | 33.8% | 8.0% | 11.3% | L14 Days | |||
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 32.2% | 15.7% | 14.5% | 2017 | 34.6% | 18.9% | 17.3% | Home | 30.5% | 17.6% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 51.5% | 8.3% | 42.4% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 31.6% | 13.0% | 11.4% | 2017 | 28.8% | 14.4% | 8.2% | Road | 28.5% | 11.2% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 19.5% | 6.3% | 0.0% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | Road | 30.5% | 17.9% | 12.2% | RH | 33.4% | 18.9% | 14.5% | L7Days | 30.5% | 11.6% | 15.2% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 31.5% | 14.9% | 12.3% | RH | 30.9% | 15.2% | 11.2% | L7Days | 31.2% | 18.4% | 10.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 31.0% | 14.0% | 11.1% | RH | 35.4% | 15.1% | 18.3% | L7Days | 32.2% | 17.0% | 18.2% |
| Twins | Home | 33.5% | 11.4% | 16.7% | LH | 29.6% | 10.3% | 10.8% | L7Days | 31.2% | 10.8% | 13.7% |
| Braves | Home | 29.0% | 12.4% | 9.4% | RH | 30.6% | 11.5% | 12.1% | L7Days | 29.3% | 11.1% | 12.5% |
| Mariners | Road | 31.7% | 11.1% | 13.6% | LH | 30.6% | 9.5% | 10.4% | L7Days | 34.5% | 7.0% | 18.3% |
| Yankees | Road | 31.3% | 12.0% | 12.6% | RH | 31.3% | 16.6% | 12.3% | L7Days | 24.4% | 12.5% | 1.8% |
| Pirates | Home | 29.4% | 9.1% | 7.8% | RH | 29.8% | 10.2% | 8.8% | L7Days | 26.2% | 11.1% | 3.6% |
| White Sox | Road | 31.3% | 13.7% | 13.8% | LH | 28.0% | 13.6% | 7.9% | L7Days | 25.3% | 12.1% | 0.0% |
| Orioles | Home | 31.0% | 15.6% | 10.5% | RH | 32.2% | 15.4% | 11.7% | L7Days | 34.8% | 12.5% | 13.9% |
| Cubs | Home | 31.4% | 16.4% | 14.4% | RH | 30.9% | 14.7% | 13.2% | L7Days | 31.1% | 21.6% | 14.2% |
| Royals | Home | 30.7% | 10.5% | 10.9% | RH | 31.7% | 11.9% | 12.5% | L7Days | 26.7% | 4.8% | 6.4% |
| Padres | Road | 30.1% | 14.8% | 8.6% | RH | 29.1% | 13.9% | 6.9% | L7Days | 31.3% | 13.0% | 0.9% |
| Red Sox | Home | 35.2% | 9.3% | 17.2% | RH | 34.1% | 10.6% | 16.0% | L7Days | 36.3% | 13.4% | 20.9% |
| Nationals | Road | 31.4% | 15.6% | 12.9% | RH | 31.8% | 15.3% | 14.8% | L7Days | 31.2% | 15.5% | 13.9% |
| Phillies | Road | 30.8% | 9.7% | 10.0% | RH | 30.6% | 11.6% | 10.2% | L7Days | 27.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% |
| Indians | Home | 31.2% | 12.6% | 13.3% | LH | 31.4% | 12.8% | 13.5% | L7Days | 27.6% | 13.0% | 8.4% |
| Rangers | Road | 30.6% | 16.0% | 10.1% | RH | 34.5% | 17.5% | 15.4% | L7Days | 40.6% | 19.7% | 24.7% |
| Reds | Home | 28.3% | 14.9% | 6.8% | RH | 29.7% | 14.1% | 9.2% | L7Days | 29.1% | 11.3% | 9.1% |
| Cardinals | Road | 31.4% | 12.8% | 13.4% | RH | 31.0% | 12.7% | 11.8% | L7Days | 27.9% | 5.6% | 7.0% |
| Astros | Home | 31.3% | 15.9% | 13.9% | RH | 33.7% | 16.0% | 16.3% | L7Days | 32.6% | 16.7% | 15.1% |
| Marlins | Road | 30.1% | 14.9% | 10.3% | RH | 31.8% | 15.0% | 11.8% | L7Days | 29.1% | 13.0% | 7.2% |
| Rockies | Home | 32.4% | 16.8% | 13.5% | RH | 30.1% | 13.3% | 10.3% | L7Days | 29.7% | 10.2% | 7.7% |
| Angels | Home | 29.0% | 13.3% | 10.2% | RH | 30.9% | 13.5% | 11.5% | L7Days | 29.7% | 11.9% | 12.0% |
| Mets | Home | 33.6% | 11.0% | 14.9% | LH | 35.9% | 14.0% | 15.7% | L7Days | 32.7% | 7.4% | 19.6% |
| Dodgers | Road | 33.7% | 14.6% | 17.5% | RH | 35.7% | 14.9% | 20.0% | L7Days | 31.4% | 10.0% | 11.1% |
| Giants | Home | 25.5% | 5.6% | 4.5% | RH | 28.0% | 8.7% | 6.8% | L7Days | 29.2% | 10.9% | 15.1% |
| Athletics | Road | 34.5% | 12.2% | 15.8% | LH | 32.6% | 9.6% | 14.9% | L7Days | 38.4% | 10.1% | 25.1% |
| Tigers | Road | 34.9% | 12.4% | 17.7% | LH | 40.2% | 17.2% | 24.4% | L7Days | 32.8% | 15.1% | 16.1% |
| Rays | Home | 37.3% | 15.7% | 19.0% | RH | 35.0% | 17.5% | 17.0% | L7Days | 23.2% | 13.2% | -1.1% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 15.4% | 6.9% | 2.23 | 13.2% | 7.6% | 1.74 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 25.8% | 10.2% | 2.53 | 25.8% | 10.3% | 2.50 |
| Chris Stratton | SFO | 12.7% | 9.2% | 1.38 | 10.6% | 8.0% | 1.33 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 15.4% | 8.1% | 1.90 | 19.7% | 9.6% | 2.05 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 21.8% | 11.1% | 1.96 | 13.5% | 7.8% | 1.73 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 19.2% | 11.3% | 1.70 | 20.5% | 10.2% | 2.01 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 31.7% | 16.6% | 1.91 | 36.4% | 20.8% | 1.75 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 30.0% | 13.5% | 2.22 | 26.6% | 12.7% | 2.09 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 24.5% | 10.5% | 2.33 | 21.1% | 10.8% | 1.95 |
| Drew VerHagen | DET | 6.7% | 6.4% | 1.05 | 6.7% | 6.4% | 1.05 |
| Edwin Jackson | WAS | 13.3% | 10.4% | 1.28 | 15.8% | 11.1% | 1.42 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 21.7% | 9.8% | 2.21 | 25.6% | 11.4% | 2.25 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 21.4% | 8.8% | 2.43 | 26.2% | 10.0% | 2.62 |
| James Shields | CHW | 16.6% | 8.9% | 1.87 | 13.7% | 8.7% | 1.57 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 19.8% | 10.1% | 1.96 | 16.7% | 11.0% | 1.52 |
| Jon Gray | COL | 23.4% | 8.4% | 2.79 | 23.1% | 7.6% | 3.04 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 22.3% | 13.0% | 1.72 | 20.2% | 11.4% | 1.77 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 14.4% | 9.0% | 1.60 | 15.2% | 8.3% | 1.83 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 21.2% | 9.0% | 2.36 | 16.0% | 7.8% | 2.05 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 26.2% | 11.7% | 2.24 | 23.8% | 10.2% | 2.33 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 23.9% | 11.7% | 2.04 | 19.5% | 11.5% | 1.70 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 20.5% | 9.0% | 2.28 | 21.2% | 10.6% | 2.00 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 24.0% | 8.3% | 2.89 | 25.0% | 8.4% | 2.98 |
| Paul Blackburn | OAK | 10.6% | 5.8% | 1.83 | 9.5% | 5.3% | 1.79 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 27.8% | 10.4% | 2.67 | 31.5% | 11.3% | 2.79 |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | 15.7% | 8.4% | 1.87 | 16.5% | 9.6% | 1.72 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 21.5% | 9.0% | 2.39 | 25.3% | 7.8% | 3.24 |
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 24.0% | 10.1% | 2.38 | |||
| Wade Miley | BAL | 18.8% | 7.6% | 2.47 | 16.1% | 8.1% | 1.99 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 16.0% | 7.1% | 2.25 | 19.3% | 7.5% | 2.57 |
Jon Gray at least has a 9.3 SwStr% in three starts since his last one strikeout outing. It’s not spectacular or what we’re used to from him, but it’s about league average with room to improve.
Taijuan Walker has pitched four games over the last 30 days. His K/SwStr discrepancy really results from one start in which he had a 4.4 SwStr%, but struck out six of 23 batters. He also struck out 10 of 24 with a 10.2 SwStr% last time out, which is also a bit high.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 3.89 | 4.77 | 0.88 | 4.57 | 0.68 | 4.43 | 0.54 | 4.08 | 0.19 | 3.51 | 4.72 | 1.21 | 4.3 | 0.79 | 5.1 | 1.59 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 3.77 | 3.89 | 0.12 | 3.8 | 0.03 | 4.03 | 0.26 | 3.85 | 0.08 | 3.23 | 3.97 | 0.74 | 4.23 | 1 | 4.13 | 0.9 |
| Chris Stratton | SFO | 7.71 | 5.53 | -2.18 | 5.12 | -2.59 | 4.65 | -3.06 | 6.42 | -1.29 | 5.91 | 5.85 | -0.06 | 5.23 | -0.68 | 5.12 | -0.79 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 4.01 | 4.82 | 0.81 | 4.79 | 0.78 | 4.64 | 0.63 | 4.75 | 0.74 | 3.86 | 4.04 | 0.18 | 4.05 | 0.19 | 4.07 | 0.21 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 3.79 | 4.37 | 0.58 | 4.7 | 0.91 | 4.3 | 0.51 | 3.96 | 0.17 | 4.76 | 5.58 | 0.82 | 5.78 | 1.02 | 5.34 | 0.58 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 3.42 | 4.55 | 1.13 | 4.65 | 1.23 | 3.33 | -0.09 | 4.28 | 0.86 | 3.21 | 4.07 | 0.86 | 4.26 | 1.05 | 2.88 | -0.33 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 4.63 | 3.54 | -1.09 | 3.39 | -1.24 | 4.12 | -0.51 | 3.37 | -1.26 | 1.38 | 2.48 | 1.1 | 2.65 | 1.27 | 2.15 | 0.77 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 5.62 | 3.59 | -2.03 | 3.88 | -1.74 | 4.33 | -1.29 | 3.86 | -1.76 | 6.1 | 4.29 | -1.81 | 4.11 | -1.99 | 4.36 | -1.74 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 3.46 | 4.14 | 0.68 | 3.9 | 0.44 | 3.73 | 0.27 | 3.89 | 0.43 | 2.97 | 5.13 | 2.16 | 4.67 | 1.7 | 4.01 | 1.04 |
| Drew VerHagen | DET | 6.75 | 5.03 | -1.72 | 5.31 | -1.44 | 12.4 | 5.65 | 7.27 | 0.52 | 6.75 | 5.03 | -1.72 | 5.31 | -1.44 | 12.4 | 5.65 |
| Edwin Jackson | WAS | 3.75 | 5.62 | 1.87 | 6 | 2.25 | 6.9 | 3.15 | 6.61 | 2.86 | 2.84 | 5.11 | 2.27 | 5.39 | 2.55 | 6.1 | 3.26 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 4.28 | 4.11 | -0.17 | 4.02 | -0.26 | 5.2 | 0.92 | 3.64 | -0.64 | 3.1 | 3.95 | 0.85 | 4.11 | 1.01 | 4.7 | 1.6 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 3.97 | 4.04 | 0.07 | 3.87 | -0.1 | 4.18 | 0.21 | 3.57 | -0.40 | 2.25 | 3.47 | 1.22 | 3.5 | 1.25 | 2.99 | 0.74 |
| James Shields | CHW | 6.19 | 5.55 | -0.64 | 6.17 | -0.02 | 6.78 | 0.59 | 7.24 | 1.05 | 8.41 | 5.76 | -2.65 | 6.28 | -2.13 | 6.59 | -1.82 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 4.87 | 4.48 | -0.39 | 4.67 | -0.2 | 5.6 | 0.73 | 6.23 | 1.36 | 3.27 | 4.7 | 1.43 | 5.05 | 1.78 | 4.38 | 1.11 |
| Jon Gray | COL | 5.52 | 3.98 | -1.54 | 3.66 | -1.86 | 3.85 | -1.67 | 4.46 | -1.06 | 6.66 | 3.88 | -2.78 | 3.66 | -3 | 3.89 | -2.77 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 4.15 | 4.27 | 0.12 | 4.49 | 0.34 | 4.01 | -0.14 | 4.32 | 0.17 | 6.08 | 4.47 | -1.61 | 4.89 | -1.19 | 3.91 | -2.17 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 6.08 | 5.23 | -0.85 | 4.89 | -1.19 | 5.53 | -0.55 | 6.39 | 0.31 | 7.27 | 4.88 | -2.39 | 4.24 | -3.03 | 4.82 | -2.45 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 3.2 | 4.52 | 1.32 | 4.56 | 1.36 | 4.82 | 1.62 | 4.61 | 1.41 | 1.15 | 4.95 | 3.8 | 4.67 | 3.52 | 3.21 | 2.06 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 3.56 | 3.8 | 0.24 | 3.59 | 0.03 | 4.04 | 0.48 | 4.00 | 0.44 | 3.13 | 3.82 | 0.69 | 3.63 | 0.5 | 2.99 | -0.14 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 5.19 | 4.47 | -0.72 | 4.85 | -0.34 | 4.38 | -0.81 | 6.92 | 1.73 | 6.48 | 5.82 | -0.66 | 6.37 | -0.11 | 5.39 | -1.09 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 4.08 | 4.56 | 0.48 | 4.65 | 0.57 | 4.66 | 0.58 | 5.67 | 1.59 | 4.88 | 4.57 | -0.31 | 4.87 | -0.01 | 4.63 | -0.25 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 5.42 | 4.35 | -1.07 | 4.47 | -0.95 | 4.99 | -0.43 | 5.03 | -0.39 | 6.44 | 3.68 | -2.76 | 4 | -2.44 | 4.92 | -1.52 |
| Paul Blackburn | OAK | 3.05 | 5.32 | 2.27 | 4.92 | 1.87 | 4.27 | 1.22 | 5.29 | 2.24 | 3.62 | 5.49 | 1.87 | 4.93 | 1.31 | 4.54 | 0.92 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 3.35 | 3.99 | 0.64 | 4.29 | 0.94 | 3.71 | 0.36 | 4.56 | 1.21 | 1.88 | 2.91 | 1.03 | 2.89 | 1.01 | 2.57 | 0.69 |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | 4.53 | 4.73 | 0.2 | 4.6 | 0.07 | 4.43 | -0.1 | 6.69 | 2.16 | 4.28 | 4.37 | 0.09 | 4.32 | 0.04 | 4.69 | 0.41 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 3.55 | 4.34 | 0.79 | 4.29 | 0.74 | 3.88 | 0.33 | 3.89 | 0.34 | 4.37 | 3.9 | -0.47 | 4.18 | -0.19 | 5.09 | 0.72 |
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 3.99 | 4.04 | 0.05 | 4.01 | 0.02 | 3.52 | -0.47 | 3.78 | -0.21 | |||||||
| Wade Miley | BAL | 5.6 | 5.06 | -0.54 | 4.69 | -0.91 | 5.25 | -0.35 | 5.84 | 0.24 | 6.84 | 5.45 | -1.39 | 5.19 | -1.65 | 6.03 | -0.81 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 4.42 | 4.74 | 0.32 | 4.56 | 0.14 | 4.65 | 0.23 | 5.02 | 0.60 | 2.73 | 4.4 | 1.67 | 4.3 | 1.57 | 3.75 | 1.02 |
Danny Salazar has a .327 BABIP and 20 HR/FB. He’s struggled with both a bit in his career, but not to this extent. The BABIP may continue to be a thing if he doesn’t get his line drive rate down, but there’s hope for a 15 to 20 point improvement.
Dinelson Lamet has stranded just 57.1% of runners.
Jon Gray has a .369 BABIP and it’s actually lower at home (.321), but in just 17 innings. The line drive rate and zone contact rate are very high. Colorado pitchers rarely thrive in terms of BABIP.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 0.284 | 0.274 | -0.01 | 46.2% | 0.219 | 7.0% | 90.7% | 88.2 | 6.20% | 36.50% | 452 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 0.295 | 0.280 | -0.015 | 50.4% | 0.201 | 10.1% | 84.3% | 85.5 | 5.10% | 33.60% | 235 |
| Chris Stratton | SFO | 0.317 | 0.326 | 0.009 | 51.1% | 0.255 | 9.1% | 86.7% | 85.6 | 4.30% | 34.00% | 47 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 0.289 | 0.242 | -0.047 | 50.6% | 0.182 | 6.9% | 89.3% | 88.1 | 6.00% | 36.20% | 232 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 0.293 | 0.273 | -0.02 | 34.0% | 0.187 | 15.6% | 86.8% | 86.1 | 6.90% | 28.30% | 360 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 0.299 | 0.314 | 0.015 | 38.3% | 0.203 | 10.7% | 86.7% | 85.9 | 4.60% | 29.50% | 325 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 0.303 | 0.327 | 0.024 | 38.6% | 0.253 | 11.7% | 77.1% | 88.7 | 8.90% | 31.50% | 168 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 0.307 | 0.281 | -0.026 | 36.0% | 0.2 | 4.5% | 82.4% | 88.7 | 12.00% | 40.70% | 150 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 0.305 | 0.315 | 0.01 | 41.9% | 0.244 | 10.4% | 84.7% | 87.2 | 7.20% | 33.60% | 321 |
| Drew VerHagen | DET | 0.309 | 0.091 | -0.218 | 50.0% | 0.071 | 0.0% | 100.0% | ||||
| Edwin Jackson | WAS | 0.293 | 0.240 | -0.053 | 35.9% | 0.141 | 15.4% | 85.2% | 85.1 | 11.00% | 28.00% | 82 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 0.279 | 0.306 | 0.027 | 44.0% | 0.248 | 8.8% | 88.9% | 86.8 | 10.40% | 33.00% | 221 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 0.308 | 0.294 | -0.014 | 47.2% | 0.196 | 10.0% | 86.7% | 85.2 | 7.70% | 32.60% | 405 |
| James Shields | CHW | 0.288 | 0.283 | -0.005 | 36.2% | 0.16 | 5.6% | 85.9% | 88.1 | 9.60% | 38.80% | 188 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 0.283 | 0.274 | -0.009 | 43.4% | 0.191 | 10.0% | 86.8% | 87.1 | 7.00% | 36.30% | 355 |
| Jon Gray | COL | 0.302 | 0.369 | 0.067 | 47.8% | 0.231 | 10.3% | 92.1% | 83.7 | 5.90% | 30.10% | 136 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 0.290 | 0.289 | -0.001 | 41.2% | 0.155 | 7.1% | 84.9% | 86.3 | 6.70% | 29.80% | 326 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 0.298 | 0.329 | 0.031 | 51.9% | 0.222 | 2.4% | 90.1% | 88.3 | 7.70% | 36.80% | 323 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 0.294 | 0.225 | -0.069 | 43.1% | 0.183 | 11.9% | 82.0% | 86.7 | 6.50% | 29.60% | 355 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 0.293 | 0.269 | -0.024 | 57.6% | 0.112 | 7.7% | 83.4% | 86.1 | 3.20% | 31.70% | 126 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 0.307 | 0.314 | 0.007 | 31.3% | 0.195 | 14.6% | 80.3% | 87.5 | 8.00% | 33.50% | 352 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 0.292 | 0.306 | 0.014 | 38.7% | 0.234 | 6.9% | 84.9% | 86.9 | 6.20% | 31.00% | 355 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 0.297 | 0.294 | -0.003 | 40.3% | 0.186 | 7.5% | 87.8% | 88.6 | 7.90% | 37.40% | 227 |
| Paul Blackburn | OAK | 0.292 | 0.242 | -0.05 | 51.2% | 0.195 | 5.6% | 90.6% | 86.3 | 2.40% | 32.50% | 123 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 0.280 | 0.274 | -0.006 | 38.5% | 0.166 | 11.9% | 82.0% | 83 | 5.70% | 26.80% | 194 |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | 0.320 | 0.308 | -0.012 | 42.6% | 0.237 | 4.7% | 86.2% | 86.8 | 5.70% | 34.70% | 193 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 0.294 | 0.282 | -0.012 | 47.1% | 0.197 | 6.3% | 85.6% | 87.6 | 5.40% | 35.70% | 294 |
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 0.285 | 0.316 | 0.031 | 39.5% | 0.235 | 6.7% | 87.4% | 87.4 | 4.90% | 37.80% | 82 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 0.315 | 0.339 | 0.024 | 50.6% | 0.229 | 8.9% | 90.5% | 87.2 | 6.30% | 35.70% | 347 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 0.300 | 0.308 | 0.008 | 48.9% | 0.217 | 10.2% | 89.7% | 85.9 | 5.40% | 31.70% | 407 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Luis Castillo (2) has seen his cost rise, but even $8K is far too cheap for the production, especially in a fairly favorable matchup. These aren’t your father’s or even your older brother’s Cardinals.
Value Tier Two
Danny Salazar (1) may be the top overall pitcher on the slate. We’ve gotten the upside without the risk since returning from the DL. That doesn’t mean it’s no longer there and the Yankees have been a potent offense, but his upside goes far beyond a $9K price tag and he’s catching this offense at a great time.
Dinelson Lamet (3) continues to be a quality arm and the matchup is not one that should exploit his weaknesses. I’m stunned when I look at his ERA, but there have been a few clunkers. He’s allowed more than two ERs in just five of his 11 starts though. Perhaps that’s what keeps his price tag in the $8K range.
Value Tier Three
Jon Gray gets the Coors penalty with some concern about his bat missing prowess this year, but he also gets a bump for facing the Phillies at a low cost ($7K or less on either site).
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Charlie Morton is having his best season, at least fantasy wise. He’s been solid, but unspectacular and useful in a daily fantasy sense. The matchup tonight isn’t terrible, but a little more difficult considering how well the Blue Jays have been hitting.
Drew Pomeranz has been very hit or miss lately, especially in terms of walks and strikeouts, but is in a decent spot against a poor offense tonight, despite the difficult park.
Gerrit Cole (4) is in a great spot and is coming off his best month in years, possibly his entire career. I was initially stunned when I saw his DraftKings cost ($11K) and he’s even $700 more than anyone else on FanDuel, but yeah, he’s been worth it, though it’s going to keep him at the bottom of this list. One great month doesn’t absolve nearly two difficult years. He did strike out just four in a couple of July starts.
Taijuan Walker is inconsistent and maybe a bit too costly on DraftKings ($9.8K), but should have some value as long as he can keep his strikeout rate near average.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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