Advanced Stats – Pitching: Saturday, July 29th
It’s Saturday. Let’s cut the introduction short. Ten games on the main slate and Corey Kluber is your safety valve. There are a few other arms who might be worth considering with some strength, but not a lot of depth.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 1.8 | 5 | 4.95 | 43.7% | 0.93 | 6.02 | 3.89 | OAK | 108 | 78 | 82 |
| Adam Conley | MIA | 4.1 | 4.53 | 5.28 | 39.7% | 0.94 | 5.03 | 4.46 | CIN | 91 | 87 | 74 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | TEX | 3.5 | 5.12 | 5.82 | 38.4% | 1.11 | 5.98 | 5.83 | BAL | 90 | 96 | 85 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | -0.7 | 4.88 | 4.9 | 38.0% | 1.01 | 4.65 | 4.45 | NYY | 120 | 89 | 125 |
| Caleb Smith | NYY | 1.1 | 3.83 | 3.2 | 40.9% | 1.01 | 3.83 | TAM | 95 | 92 | 69 | |
| Chris Smith | OAK | -12.2 | 4.37 | 6.33 | 42.4% | 0.93 | 4.05 | 5.97 | MIN | 89 | 98 | 94 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | -5.8 | 3.98 | 5.78 | 41.4% | 0.98 | 4.33 | 5.96 | DET | 112 | 95 | 87 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0 | 3.19 | 6.73 | 44.4% | 0.98 | 3.23 | 1.6 | CHW | 89 | 87 | 76 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | -5.8 | 3.63 | 5.12 | 35.5% | 0.91 | 3.79 | 4.15 | PIT | 88 | 88 | 81 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 7 | 4.25 | 5.67 | 36.7% | 1.13 | 4.73 | 4.21 | KAN | 87 | 86 | 133 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | -2.8 | 4.45 | 5.23 | 48.4% | 1.03 | 4.08 | 6.13 | ANA | 84 | 84 | 115 |
| German Marquez | COL | -4.2 | 4.28 | 5.53 | 45.4% | 1.01 | 4.79 | 2.87 | WAS | 117 | 111 | 141 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | -3.2 | 4.1 | 5.95 | 50.7% | 0.91 | 3.91 | 3.4 | SDG | 91 | 87 | 98 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | -1.4 | 3.48 | 6.27 | 45.6% | 0.89 | 3.52 | 3.64 | SEA | 107 | 103 | 83 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 4.1 | 4.13 | 5.9 | 40.3% | 0.96 | 4.28 | 4.21 | ATL | 91 | 87 | 79 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | -1.3 | 4.86 | 5.63 | 41.2% | 1.02 | 4.73 | 5.42 | CHC | 95 | 92 | 93 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | -4.6 | 4.04 | 5.67 | 43.7% | 1.11 | 4.23 | 3.31 | TEX | 107 | 98 | 126 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 4.2 | 3.68 | 5.89 | 50.3% | 1.02 | 4.06 | 2.47 | MIL | 92 | 94 | 79 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 2.8 | 4.78 | 5.1 | 38.0% | 0.98 | 5.14 | 4.38 | HOU | 136 | 121 | 132 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 0.2 | 4.99 | 5.74 | 40.3% | 0.98 | 4.78 | 5.78 | CLE | 102 | 108 | 153 |
| Mike Leake | STL | -3.5 | 4.13 | 6.05 | 54.1% | 0.98 | 3.67 | 4.73 | ARI | 79 | 102 | 98 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 3.8 | 3.38 | 5.56 | 43.4% | 0.89 | 4.12 | 2.49 | SFO | 84 | 82 | 85 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | -2.5 | 4.63 | 5.38 | 43.4% | 0.96 | 3.48 | 4.82 | PHI | 98 | 81 | 133 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.1 | 4.37 | 6. | 47.8% | 1.01 | 4.06 | 3.15 | COL | 80 | 78 | 106 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 7.4 | 4.73 | 5.35 | 0.355 | 0.94 | 5.16 | 4.99 | MIA | 89 | 97 | 137 |
| Trevor Cahill | KAN | 5.8 | 3.57 | 5.5 | 0.571 | 1.13 | 3.61 | 4.8 | BOS | 87 | 88 | 35 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | -0.9 | 4.98 | 6.17 | 0.475 | 0.89 | 4.86 | 4.24 | LOS | 119 | 116 | 127 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 6.6 | 5.08 | 5.22 | 0.452 | 0.89 | 5.11 | 6.39 | NYM | 108 | 101 | 103 |
| Yusmeiro Petit | ANA | 1.2 | 3.48 | 6. | 0.388 | 1.03 | 4.39 | 2.62 | TOR | 91 | 89 | 74 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | -5.3 | 3.64 | 6.42 | 0.468 | 0.98 | 3.53 | 4.39 | STL | 102 | 98 | 102 |
Corey Kluber has at least 10 strikeouts in nine of his last 12 starts, including 26 of his last 56 batters. He’s gone at least seven innings in seven of his last eight starts and has allowed more than one ER just once in seven starts. He has a -6.1 Hard-Soft% over his last nine starts. Mr. Sale may have some competition. He’s also facing the White Sox tonight (15.8 K-BB% vs RHP).
Dinelson Lamet has seen a slight reduced strikeout rate over the last month, but the SwStr rate is still there and he’s only walked more than one in three of his last nine starts, bouncing back with one last time out after four walks in two straight. While he has the highest aEV (89.1%), Barrels/BBE (13%) and 95+ mph EV (41.3%) on the board for the entire day, he’s allowed just three of his 11 HRs over his last five starts, although his hard hit rate (46.8%) is still higher than his ground ball rate (38%) over that span. Although the Pirates don’t strike out a lot (18.7% vs RHP), he may be in the top run prevention spot on the slate (10.6 HR/FB vs RHP).
Tanner Roark struck out a season high 11 Diamondbacks in his last start. Once or twice a year he’ll do that to prop up an otherwise pedestrian strikeout rate that now sits at nearly league average for the season despite having five or fewer in 14 of 19 starts. While his 84.8 mph aEV is still better than average, his contact management has not been what it was last year, which had his ERA two runs lower despite similar estimators. He’s in a great spot against a Colorado offense with a 16.8 K-BB% on the road and 15.2 K-BB% vs RHP.
Trevor Cahill makes his first start for the Royals in an interesting spot in Boston. It’s a terrible park against an offense that doesn’t strike out a lot, but more often vs RHP and with just a 5.8 BB% and 19.2 Hard% over the last week. He is coming off his worst start of the season in San Francisco (four walks, one strikeout), he’s had a double digit SwStr% in nine of 11 starts this year. Both of those misses have been in July though. However, he still has a 27.4 K% and 12.8 SwStr% that are career highs by a wide margin with a 56.8 GB% and 26.2% 95+ mph EV. When he’s gotten in trouble, it’s generally been walks (three or more in five starts and three of his four starts with more than three ERs allowed).
Zack Greinke went eight innings for the fourth time this year and at least seven for the fourth time in six starts last time out. While he’s still having a great season his strikeout rate has been good rather than great recently with a .243 BABIP and 85.9 LOB% responsible for ERA improvement this month. While he’s in about as neutral as a spot as you can find in St Louis, his hard contact rate does drop 10 points on the road, while his 27.1% 95+ mph EV is one of the top numbers on the board overall.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Mike Leake (.289 – 73.3% – 13.3) has an 18.5% unearned run rate. Going into his last start (0 BB, 6 K) he had walked 12 with just 11 strikeouts over his previous five. That said, his 56.1 GB% is a career high and has kept his barrel rate down despite marginal exit velocity rates. The Diamondbacks have been a very poor road offense, but have a better lineup overall with the recent addition of J.D. Martinez. He’s struck out just 12.8% of batters over the last month.
Adalberto Mejia (.290 – 77.6% – 13.8) has a strand rate that’s a bit too high, but it’s a bit higher (79.6%) with just a 7.1 HR/FB over the last month. He has just an 8.8 K-BB%, but the A’s strike out 26.1% of the time vs LHP. He could be slightly interesting, but has only completed six innings four times this year.
Chris Smith (.203 – 77.4% -13.6) may have a bit of upside in his strikeout rate, but his SwStr% is still below average.
Junior Guerra (.238 – 78.2% – 20.8) has a 13.2 BB%.
Austin Bibens-Dirkx (.236 – 82.2% – 17.7)
Miguel Gonzalez (.298 – 70.9% – 10.7) has a 13% unearned run rate and has stranded 90.9% of runners without a HR in two July starts without any increase in a poor K% or SwStr%.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Kevin Gausman has the fourth best SwStr rate (16.4%) over the last 30 days, surpassed only by three Cy Young contenders not named Sale (who’s eighth). While that’s not always translated to strong overall results, he’s gone at least six innings with eight or more strikeouts and one run or less in three of five starts this month, including each of his last two. While the Rangers have a 23.7 K% vs RHP, they also have a 17.4 HR/FB and Texas has been sweltering this week. The environment is a massive concern and ownership is sure to be up after back to back great outings.
Ivan Nova has increased his SwStr% a bit over the last month, but his strikeout rate hasn’t budged much. Perhaps tonight’s the night in San Diego (25.3 K% vs RHP). We know that he won’t hurt himself by walking batters, but that’s about the only positive. His ground ball rate is only league average over his last 11 starts and while his 28.4% 95+ mph EV is great, his 88 mph aEV is not. While the Padres don’t make a ton of hard contact (7.2 Hard-Soft% vs RHP), he’s allowed 13 HRs in nine starts since the beginning of June. While I don’t hate him tonight, I’d probably very rarely regret omitting him.
Eduardo Rodriguez has struck out 14 of 51 batters since returning, but with just a league average 10.0 SwStr%. He’s also walked six and allowed two HRs, failing to complete six innings in either outing with a 26.7 Hard-Soft%. Now the Royals still don’t walk, but they’ve been hitting for power recently (25.8 HR/FB last seven days) and this is a tough park. While I still believe in his future, this is not good-bye forever, but maybe good-bye for now.
Sean Newcomb has struck out 21 of his last 72 batters, but has walked 12 of them as well. Six innings in his last start was his most in four July starts, while three runs was his lowest total as well. That said, he has faced four powerhouse offense vs LHP in a row (HOU, WAS, CHC, LAD), all of whom can take a walk and hit the ball hard. While the Phillies have been hot and much better overall since the break, they’ve been vulnerable to LHP. However, their peripherals are not terrible. I’m conflicted because he could be worth a shot for multiple lineup players, but he still carries an average cost.
Kyle Hendricks returned after nearly two months on the DL to allow one run with a 23.8 K%. What a great sign for the Cubs, right? Well, his velocity was down even further (84.7 mph), he had just an 8.7 SwStr% and used 92 pitches to get through 4.1 innings against the White Sox. While his contact management has been fine overall this year, it’s not been elite like it was last year which makes difficult for him to be a daily fantasy asset. That said, he’s in a spot that could bump his strikeout rate a bit tonight in Milwaukee (25.3 K% vs RHP, 26.2 K% at home), but also a dangerous one (19 HR/FB at home and vs RHP).
Jerad Eickhoff missed some time and then returned to strike out eight Padres with a 19.7 SwStr% in his first start of July. He struck out eight more Marlins, but allowed three HRs with an 11 SwStr% before striking out six Brewers with a 7.2 SwStr% last time out. I’ve long believed him to be a league average pitcher at best and nothing’s changed. He seems to generate a bit too much hard contact in the air in a power friendly park, but it’s never really hurt him too badly yet. The Braves are below average, but don’t strike out a lot.
German Marquez has struck out 18 of his last 54 batters and allowed just eight runs over his last 20.2 innings in three straight starts at home. He has allowed a HR in four straight starts though and while he does escape Coors tonight, it doesn’t get much better in Washington against an offense that hit about 20 HRs Thursday afternoon. Even outside of Colorado he may be on the worst spot on the slate.
Adam Conley had his best start of the season last time out, throwing seven shutout innings in Texas without a walk. It was his first outing of more than six innings, first without a run and just second without a walk. His five strikeouts tied a high over his last seven starts. He has started just eight games this year and has not exceeded an 8.3 SwStr% in any of his last three starts.
Tim Adleman is risk (23 HRs) well beyond reward (21.5 K%). While the park upgrade is significant, especially from a power suppression standpoint, the Marlins have been hot and have a few guys with no issues hitting it out of any park (19.7 HR/FB last seven days), although they did score 22 runs in one game in Texas.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | L2 Years | 18.4% | 10.2% | Road | 14.8% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 4.9% |
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 20.6% | 9.6% | Home | 18.8% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 3.9% |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | Rangers | L2 Years | 13.6% | 6.3% | Home | 13.3% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 22.5% | 13.1% | Road | 21.7% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 9.1% |
| Caleb Smith | Yankees | L2 Years | 22.6% | 6.5% | Home | L14 Days | 22.6% | 6.5% | ||
| Chris Smith | Athletics | L2 Years | 21.9% | 10.7% | Home | 22.2% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 11.3% | 9.4% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | L2 Years | 22.2% | 7.0% | Road | 20.5% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 9.5% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 29.0% | 6.2% | Road | 27.5% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 46.4% | 3.6% |
| Dinelson Lamet | Padres | L2 Years | 29.8% | 8.8% | Home | 28.7% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 10.0% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 21.9% | 8.2% | Home | 23.4% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 11.8% |
| Francisco Liriano | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 22.3% | 11.3% | Home | 23.9% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 16.7% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 20.5% | 7.4% | Road | 20.6% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 7.3% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 16.9% | 4.5% | Road | 16.7% | 3.3% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 3.9% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 26.4% | 6.6% | Road | 21.9% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 4.7% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 21.2% | 6.4% | Home | 21.4% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 12.0% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.3% | 10.3% | Home | 19.5% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 10.0% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 22.1% | 7.2% | Road | 21.4% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 32.3% | 9.2% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 23.0% | 6.6% | Road | 21.7% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 0.0% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Years | 17.8% | 8.1% | Home | 17.0% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 8.0% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 15.3% | 7.6% | Home | 16.7% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 13.8% | 13.8% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 15.8% | 5.0% | Home | 16.4% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 13.2% | 8.8% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 29.7% | 8.1% | Home | 26.5% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 35.4% | 4.2% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | L2 Years | 22.9% | 11.5% | Road | 34.3% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 15.4% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 19.6% | 8.3% | Home | 21.3% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 7.7% |
| Tim Adleman | Reds | L2 Years | 19.4% | 8.2% | Road | 16.6% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 8.2% |
| Trevor Cahill | Royals | L2 Years | 26.2% | 10.5% | Road | 24.6% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 9.8% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 12.4% | 5.5% | Road | 10.5% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 3.5% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Mariners | L2 Years | 16.0% | 10.2% | Home | 17.0% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 17.2% |
| Yusmeiro Petit | Angels | L2 Years | 23.0% | 5.1% | Road | 21.6% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 0.0% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 23.7% | 5.5% | Road | 23.0% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 17.3% | 5.8% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics | Home | 25.2% | 9.5% | LH | 26.1% | 8.5% | L7Days | 21.3% | 11.8% |
| Reds | Road | 20.5% | 7.5% | LH | 21.4% | 7.4% | L7Days | 23.1% | 9.6% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.6% | 6.2% | RH | 22.2% | 6.7% | L7Days | 17.4% | 7.3% |
| Yankees | Home | 23.4% | 10.5% | LH | 23.3% | 10.5% | L7Days | 21.4% | 9.0% |
| Rays | Road | 25.7% | 8.3% | LH | 26.0% | 9.8% | L7Days | 28.1% | 9.5% |
| Twins | Road | 22.5% | 9.1% | RH | 22.4% | 9.7% | L7Days | 21.6% | 10.6% |
| Tigers | Home | 19.3% | 9.2% | RH | 21.7% | 9.5% | L7Days | 18.9% | 9.5% |
| White Sox | Home | 22.7% | 7.6% | RH | 22.5% | 6.7% | L7Days | 22.7% | 6.7% |
| Pirates | Road | 19.4% | 8.7% | RH | 18.7% | 8.3% | L7Days | 23.0% | 7.8% |
| Royals | Road | 21.3% | 6.0% | LH | 18.9% | 6.3% | L7Days | 18.1% | 6.8% |
| Angels | Road | 21.2% | 8.6% | LH | 20.1% | 8.7% | L7Days | 19.0% | 5.6% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.6% | 9.4% | RH | 19.8% | 9.4% | L7Days | 22.3% | 7.1% |
| Padres | Home | 24.5% | 8.5% | RH | 25.3% | 7.7% | L7Days | 22.3% | 7.6% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.2% | 8.9% | RH | 21.5% | 7.8% | L7Days | 26.6% | 8.0% |
| Braves | Road | 19.6% | 7.5% | RH | 19.9% | 7.0% | L7Days | 20.2% | 7.5% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.4% | 9.6% | RH | 21.8% | 8.9% | L7Days | 21.4% | 10.3% |
| Rangers | Home | 21.5% | 9.5% | RH | 23.7% | 9.1% | L7Days | 22.1% | 9.4% |
| Brewers | Home | 26.2% | 8.4% | RH | 25.3% | 8.6% | L7Days | 25.7% | 8.8% |
| Astros | Road | 17.8% | 8.5% | LH | 17.2% | 8.7% | L7Days | 19.4% | 5.8% |
| Indians | Road | 18.0% | 9.4% | RH | 19.4% | 9.5% | L7Days | 14.8% | 13.8% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 24.4% | 8.2% | RH | 23.0% | 9.4% | L7Days | 25.9% | 11.7% |
| Giants | Road | 19.4% | 8.1% | LH | 18.8% | 7.7% | L7Days | 16.7% | 7.5% |
| Phillies | Home | 22.5% | 8.2% | LH | 21.2% | 7.8% | L7Days | 25.5% | 7.2% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.3% | 7.5% | RH | 22.7% | 7.5% | L7Days | 23.1% | 6.5% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.7% | 8.4% | RH | 20.6% | 7.4% | L7Days | 21.5% | 11.6% |
| Red Sox | Home | 18.2% | 9.4% | RH | 19.3% | 8.7% | L7Days | 19.6% | 5.8% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.9% | 10.3% | LH | 22.6% | 10.9% | L7Days | 22.8% | 6.8% |
| Mets | Road | 20.6% | 8.6% | RH | 18.9% | 8.9% | L7Days | 23.0% | 5.7% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 20.5% | 8.6% | RH | 20.8% | 8.4% | L7Days | 24.4% | 9.3% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.2% | 9.6% | RH | 21.4% | 8.8% | L7Days | 23.5% | 9.4% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | L2 Years | 32.9% | 12.9% | 12.1% | 2017 | 32.5% | 13.8% | 11.0% | Road | 28.4% | 9.4% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 0.0% | 6.9% |
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 29.5% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 2017 | 36.3% | 7.5% | 17.8% | Home | 34.4% | 6.5% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 40.5% | 0.0% | 21.4% |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | Rangers | L2 Years | 35.8% | 17.7% | 19.9% | 2017 | 35.8% | 17.7% | 19.9% | Home | 43.5% | 15.0% | 32.6% | L14 Days | 57.1% | 25.0% | 57.1% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 32.7% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 2017 | 34.4% | 12.7% | 13.4% | Road | 34.0% | 8.2% | 15.9% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 15.4% | -6.7% |
| Caleb Smith | Yankees | L2 Years | 18.2% | 0.0% | 4.6% | 2017 | 18.2% | 0.0% | 4.6% | Home | L14 Days | 18.2% | 0.0% | 4.6% | |||
| Chris Smith | Athletics | L2 Years | 27.5% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 2017 | 29.0% | 13.6% | 12.9% | Home | 29.0% | 9.1% | 14.5% | L14 Days | 26.2% | 11.8% | 11.9% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | L2 Years | 27.6% | 10.7% | 6.5% | 2017 | 35.7% | 20.0% | 21.4% | Road | 34.8% | 13.2% | 17.2% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 20.0% | 21.4% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 27.7% | 12.2% | 7.6% | 2017 | 29.5% | 13.8% | 7.4% | Road | 30.0% | 12.0% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 30.0% | -7.2% |
| Dinelson Lamet | Padres | L2 Years | 42.0% | 17.5% | 29.0% | 2017 | 42.0% | 17.5% | 29.0% | Home | 40.3% | 13.3% | 29.0% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 10.0% | 43.7% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.5% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 2017 | 30.7% | 13.6% | 13.8% | Home | 26.8% | 15.1% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 18.2% | 26.7% |
| Francisco Liriano | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 32.2% | 15.0% | 13.3% | 2017 | 31.2% | 12.5% | 14.7% | Home | 33.5% | 10.7% | 16.4% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 14.3% | -7.4% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 35.2% | 11.7% | 20.5% | 2017 | 36.7% | 10.9% | 21.7% | Road | 38.8% | 8.9% | 24.3% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 40.0% | 25.0% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 33.1% | 15.7% | 14.9% | 2017 | 32.3% | 15.1% | 14.7% | Road | 35.9% | 18.8% | 21.8% | L14 Days | 37.8% | 42.9% | 27.0% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 31.3% | 13.7% | 11.4% | 2017 | 33.8% | 15.8% | 13.5% | Road | 34.9% | 17.1% | 17.7% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 3.6% | 6.7% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 32.3% | 11.9% | 13.6% | 2017 | 33.5% | 10.9% | 18.3% | Home | 30.2% | 12.8% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 34.5% | 23.1% | 17.3% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Years | 33.7% | 13.1% | 13.9% | 2017 | 33.3% | 20.8% | 13.9% | Home | 34.6% | 11.5% | 14.8% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 21.4% | 17.2% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 31.4% | 15.5% | 12.7% | 2017 | 33.7% | 15.4% | 15.3% | Road | 33.4% | 15.8% | 16.0% | L14 Days | 39.5% | 41.7% | 21.1% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 28.0% | 12.0% | 5.5% | 2017 | 35.4% | 17.3% | 13.3% | Road | 26.9% | 12.3% | 2.8% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 6.2% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Years | 33.5% | 12.5% | 14.9% | 2017 | 38.7% | 10.3% | 19.1% | Home | 36.2% | 13.1% | 17.3% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 7.1% | -14.7% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 30.2% | 9.1% | 13.4% | 2017 | 32.7% | 10.7% | 17.0% | Home | 28.0% | 7.1% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 0.0% | 15.0% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 31.1% | 13.4% | 14.3% | 2017 | 31.6% | 13.3% | 15.9% | Home | 27.7% | 17.1% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 43.4% | 0.0% | 34.0% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 27.4% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 2017 | 27.9% | 9.1% | 3.3% | Home | 31.3% | 7.1% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 0.0% | 21.4% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | L2 Years | 30.7% | 12.8% | 13.8% | 2017 | 30.7% | 12.8% | 13.8% | Road | 41.7% | 7.7% | 27.8% | L14 Days | 41.4% | 25.0% | 31.1% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 26.3% | 10.6% | 6.3% | 2017 | 29.0% | 12.0% | 14.2% | Home | 27.5% | 9.4% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 21.9% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Tim Adleman | Reds | L2 Years | 34.3% | 15.8% | 18.7% | 2017 | 33.5% | 17.3% | 16.8% | Road | 33.1% | 12.6% | 17.6% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 14.8% | 25.0% |
| Trevor Cahill | Royals | L2 Years | 30.2% | 17.2% | 8.2% | 2017 | 29.9% | 14.3% | 7.9% | Road | 34.8% | 20.5% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 27.0% | 0.0% | 10.8% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 30.6% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 2017 | 30.7% | 8.0% | 10.6% | Road | 34.1% | 13.2% | 14.8% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 8.3% | 20.0% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Mariners | L2 Years | 29.5% | 12.9% | 11.5% | 2017 | 34.1% | 14.7% | 14.3% | Home | 30.4% | 14.9% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 42.1% | 30.0% | 31.6% |
| Yusmeiro Petit | Angels | L2 Years | 31.6% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 2017 | 34.2% | 7.0% | 14.1% | Road | 31.8% | 10.8% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 13.3% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 31.6% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 2017 | 34.4% | 14.2% | 11.9% | Road | 26.6% | 15.4% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 15.4% | 5.0% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics | Home | 31.1% | 15.2% | 16.1% | LH | 31.5% | 9.3% | 13.7% | L7Days | 25.9% | 13.2% | 7.1% |
| Reds | Road | 30.6% | 13.7% | 11.4% | LH | 28.0% | 14.1% | 7.6% | L7Days | 33.7% | 14.8% | 11.6% |
| Orioles | Road | 34.5% | 13.5% | 15.0% | RH | 31.8% | 15.4% | 11.2% | L7Days | 35.8% | 11.9% | 13.6% |
| Yankees | Home | 30.7% | 20.4% | 10.2% | LH | 29.2% | 12.3% | 8.2% | L7Days | 31.1% | 21.8% | 15.6% |
| Rays | Road | 33.4% | 16.9% | 14.1% | LH | 34.4% | 12.6% | 13.5% | L7Days | 32.3% | 12.8% | 11.6% |
| Twins | Road | 30.0% | 11.8% | 11.6% | RH | 32.9% | 12.3% | 16.1% | L7Days | 33.3% | 5.8% | 15.7% |
| Tigers | Home | 45.7% | 13.4% | 32.1% | RH | 40.5% | 11.5% | 25.1% | L7Days | 33.5% | 7.4% | 17.3% |
| White Sox | Home | 28.9% | 13.1% | 7.7% | RH | 31.1% | 13.3% | 12.2% | L7Days | 24.4% | 14.8% | 6.2% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.7% | 12.1% | 10.5% | RH | 30.2% | 10.6% | 9.3% | L7Days | 29.5% | 11.9% | 11.5% |
| Royals | Road | 32.6% | 15.0% | 13.0% | LH | 30.5% | 12.7% | 9.7% | L7Days | 39.1% | 25.8% | 21.9% |
| Angels | Road | 32.6% | 11.1% | 13.1% | LH | 30.8% | 8.6% | 13.1% | L7Days | 31.2% | 13.6% | 10.6% |
| Nationals | Home | 32.4% | 15.0% | 16.0% | RH | 32.1% | 15.5% | 15.2% | L7Days | 36.7% | 22.2% | 23.0% |
| Padres | Home | 28.9% | 13.0% | 7.4% | RH | 28.8% | 13.9% | 7.2% | L7Days | 33.3% | 13.0% | 16.1% |
| Mariners | Home | 28.8% | 12.2% | 9.3% | RH | 30.2% | 12.7% | 11.9% | L7Days | 32.0% | 12.5% | 12.7% |
| Braves | Road | 31.6% | 12.9% | 13.4% | RH | 30.8% | 11.7% | 12.1% | L7Days | 33.3% | 15.1% | 14.8% |
| Cubs | Road | 30.0% | 15.0% | 10.8% | RH | 31.0% | 14.5% | 13.4% | L7Days | 32.0% | 12.5% | 14.9% |
| Rangers | Home | 35.8% | 16.7% | 17.3% | RH | 34.0% | 17.4% | 14.7% | L7Days | 35.7% | 15.7% | 15.9% |
| Brewers | Home | 37.9% | 19.1% | 18.4% | RH | 33.6% | 19.3% | 14.5% | L7Days | 33.6% | 15.3% | 19.9% |
| Astros | Road | 33.6% | 16.1% | 15.4% | LH | 28.3% | 14.7% | 9.0% | L7Days | 31.5% | 14.1% | 15.2% |
| Indians | Road | 35.2% | 11.7% | 18.8% | RH | 33.9% | 12.2% | 17.2% | L7Days | 34.3% | 17.9% | 18.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 31.0% | 13.6% | 10.4% | RH | 35.6% | 15.1% | 18.3% | L7Days | 32.7% | 14.3% | 13.6% |
| Giants | Road | 31.0% | 11.0% | 10.0% | LH | 28.0% | 7.9% | 7.9% | L7Days | 25.4% | 2.1% | 4.4% |
| Phillies | Home | 30.3% | 15.4% | 10.2% | LH | 29.8% | 14.5% | 9.6% | L7Days | 28.3% | 22.0% | 5.9% |
| Rockies | Road | 29.6% | 11.8% | 8.7% | RH | 30.2% | 13.6% | 10.4% | L7Days | 42.6% | 25.0% | 30.2% |
| Marlins | Home | 31.4% | 15.3% | 9.6% | RH | 31.8% | 14.9% | 11.9% | L7Days | 37.6% | 19.7% | 22.8% |
| Red Sox | Home | 35.0% | 8.7% | 16.6% | RH | 33.9% | 10.5% | 15.7% | L7Days | 19.2% | 7.3% | -7.8% |
| Dodgers | Home | 36.6% | 17.6% | 21.1% | LH | 34.7% | 19.2% | 19.1% | L7Days | 38.6% | 19.0% | 17.7% |
| Mets | Road | 36.8% | 15.7% | 19.3% | RH | 35.1% | 13.1% | 17.9% | L7Days | 38.6% | 14.9% | 22.2% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 29.8% | 14.3% | 9.9% | RH | 30.8% | 14.9% | 10.9% | L7Days | 29.0% | 18.5% | 12.9% |
| Cardinals | Home | 31.7% | 12.6% | 12.0% | RH | 31.2% | 13.4% | 11.9% | L7Days | 26.5% | 17.0% | 3.0% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 19.2% | 9.3% | 2.06 | 18.9% | 9.6% | 1.97 |
| Adam Conley | MIA | 16.7% | 9.9% | 1.69 | 15.4% | 7.9% | 1.95 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | TEX | 13.6% | 8.8% | 1.55 | 11.1% | 7.7% | 1.44 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 19.7% | 9.1% | 2.16 | 23.3% | 9.8% | 2.38 |
| Caleb Smith | NYY | 22.6% | 12.1% | 1.87 | 22.6% | 12.1% | 1.87 |
| Chris Smith | OAK | 12.8% | 8.2% | 1.56 | 12.8% | 8.2% | 1.56 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 19.1% | 10.4% | 1.84 | 19.1% | 10.4% | 1.84 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 35.5% | 16.0% | 2.22 | 42.1% | 18.7% | 2.25 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 29.8% | 13.8% | 2.16 | 26.5% | 13.6% | 1.95 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 26.5% | 11.6% | 2.28 | 27.5% | 10.0% | 2.75 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 19.9% | 9.7% | 2.05 | 16.8% | 7.0% | 2.40 |
| German Marquez | COL | 21.9% | 9.2% | 2.38 | 27.1% | 11.0% | 2.46 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 14.6% | 7.7% | 1.90 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 1.69 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 27.9% | 13.4% | 2.08 | 28.3% | 10.1% | 2.80 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.38 | 30.6% | 12.0% | 2.55 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 17.4% | 9.9% | 1.76 | 21.3% | 10.3% | 2.07 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 20.2% | 10.3% | 1.96 | 33.0% | 16.4% | 2.01 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 20.4% | 7.5% | 2.72 | 23.8% | 8.7% | 2.74 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 15.6% | 9.1% | 1.71 | 22.0% | 13.5% | 1.63 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 13.0% | 6.8% | 1.91 | 13.8% | 6.8% | 2.03 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 16.2% | 8.1% | 2.00 | 12.8% | 6.6% | 1.94 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 28.6% | 10.7% | 2.67 | 37.8% | 14.0% | 2.70 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | 22.9% | 12.0% | 1.91 | 24.5% | 13.0% | 1.88 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 19.5% | 10.0% | 1.95 | 22.5% | 12.9% | 1.74 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 21.5% | 10.7% | 2.01 | 20.5% | 10.2% | 2.01 |
| Trevor Cahill | KAN | 27.4% | 12.8% | 2.14 | 23.3% | 11.1% | 2.10 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 11.9% | 7.0% | 1.70 | 16.4% | 8.6% | 1.91 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 17.3% | 8.2% | 2.11 | 22.2% | 11.6% | 1.91 |
| Yusmeiro Petit | ANA | 26.6% | 9.4% | 2.83 | 17.5% | 4.3% | 4.07 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 27.5% | 13.3% | 2.07 | 23.8% | 12.4% | 1.92 |
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 4.1 | 4.93 | 0.83 | 4.91 | 0.81 | 4.91 | 0.81 | 4.48 | 0.38 | 2.79 | 4.35 | 1.56 | 4.22 | 1.43 | 3.39 | 0.6 |
| Adam Conley | MIA | 5.62 | 5.21 | -0.41 | 5.38 | -0.24 | 4.35 | -1.27 | 6.68 | 1.06 | 1.38 | 4.46 | 3.08 | 4.31 | 2.93 | 2.38 | 1 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | TEX | 4.53 | 5.12 | 0.59 | 5.36 | 0.83 | 6.07 | 1.54 | 6.48 | 1.95 | 8 | 5.43 | -2.57 | 5.76 | -2.24 | 9.15 | 1.15 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 4.86 | 5.39 | 0.53 | 5.23 | 0.37 | 5.07 | 0.21 | 4.61 | -0.25 | 5.14 | 5.12 | -0.02 | 5.14 | 0 | 4.87 | -0.27 |
| Caleb Smith | NYY | 8.1 | 3.8 | -4.3 | 3.56 | -4.54 | 1.95 | -6.15 | 4.98 | -3.12 | 8.1 | 3.83 | -4.27 | 3.56 | -4.54 | 1.95 | -6.15 |
| Chris Smith | OAK | 3.32 | 5.45 | 2.13 | 5.12 | 1.8 | 5.1 | 1.78 | 7.51 | 4.19 | 3.32 | 5.45 | 2.13 | 5.12 | 1.8 | 5.1 | 1.78 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 7.71 | 5.92 | -1.79 | 7.2 | -0.51 | 8.94 | 1.23 | 5.59 | -2.12 | 7.71 | 5.96 | -1.75 | 7.2 | -0.51 | 8.94 | 1.23 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 2.74 | 2.69 | -0.05 | 2.47 | -0.27 | 2.47 | -0.27 | 2.18 | -0.56 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 0.3 | 1.77 | 0.02 | 2.07 | 0.32 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 5.92 | 3.62 | -2.3 | 3.98 | -1.94 | 4.57 | -1.35 | 4.29 | -1.63 | 4.98 | 4.07 | -0.91 | 3.87 | -1.11 | 3.94 | -1.04 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 3.89 | 4.01 | 0.12 | 4.22 | 0.33 | 4.2 | 0.31 | 3.26 | -0.63 | 5.91 | 4.21 | -1.7 | 4.34 | -1.57 | 4.93 | -0.98 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 5.99 | 5.09 | -0.9 | 5.1 | -0.89 | 4.91 | -1.08 | 5.57 | -0.42 | 7.4 | 5.46 | -1.94 | 5.54 | -1.86 | 5.09 | -2.31 |
| German Marquez | COL | 4.2 | 4.29 | 0.09 | 4.29 | 0.09 | 3.91 | -0.29 | 5.19 | 0.99 | 3.76 | 3.4 | -0.36 | 3.08 | -0.68 | 3.84 | 0.08 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 3.62 | 4.42 | 0.8 | 4.08 | 0.46 | 4.25 | 0.63 | 4.87 | 1.25 | 5.65 | 4.58 | -1.07 | 4.35 | -1.3 | 5.84 | 0.19 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 3.3 | 3.61 | 0.31 | 3.45 | 0.15 | 3.69 | 0.39 | 2.96 | -0.34 | 2.21 | 3.21 | 1 | 3.34 | 1.13 | 3.21 | 1 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 4.71 | 4.59 | -0.12 | 4.68 | -0.03 | 4.24 | -0.47 | 6.10 | 1.39 | 3.71 | 3.64 | -0.07 | 3.94 | 0.23 | 4.45 | 0.74 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 5.22 | 5.7 | 0.48 | 5.92 | 0.7 | 7.12 | 1.9 | 8.24 | 3.02 | 6.88 | 5.13 | -1.75 | 5.41 | -1.47 | 6.92 | 0.04 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 5.79 | 4.71 | -1.08 | 4.65 | -1.14 | 4.89 | -0.9 | 5.54 | -0.25 | 4.85 | 3 | -1.85 | 2.79 | -2.06 | 3.85 | -1 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 3.95 | 4.23 | 0.28 | 3.91 | -0.04 | 4.27 | 0.32 | 4.85 | 0.90 | 2.08 | 2.47 | 0.39 | 1.26 | -0.82 | 0.85 | -1.23 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 5.48 | 5.2 | -0.28 | 5.09 | -0.39 | 4.56 | -0.92 | 5.85 | 0.37 | 4.5 | 4.38 | -0.12 | 4.65 | 0.15 | 3.65 | -0.85 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 4.6 | 5.54 | 0.94 | 5.58 | 0.98 | 5.04 | 0.44 | 6.21 | 1.61 | 1.35 | 5.78 | 4.43 | 5.54 | 4.19 | 4.2 | 2.85 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 3.2 | 4.21 | 1.01 | 3.91 | 0.71 | 3.87 | 0.67 | 4.49 | 1.29 | 3.51 | 4.71 | 1.2 | 4.41 | 0.9 | 4.67 | 1.16 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 3.48 | 3.91 | 0.43 | 4.23 | 0.75 | 3.58 | 0.1 | 4.62 | 1.14 | 1.42 | 2.22 | 0.8 | 2.16 | 0.74 | 1.34 | -0.08 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | 4.81 | 4.63 | -0.18 | 4.4 | -0.41 | 4.29 | -0.52 | 5.60 | 0.79 | 9.16 | 5 | -4.16 | 4.98 | -4.18 | 6.05 | -3.11 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 4.83 | 4.5 | -0.33 | 4.32 | -0.51 | 4.11 | -0.72 | 4.45 | -0.38 | 3.43 | 4.28 | 0.85 | 4.07 | 0.64 | 3.15 | -0.28 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 5.11 | 4.64 | -0.47 | 5 | -0.11 | 5.61 | 0.5 | 6.91 | 1.80 | 6.49 | 4.65 | -1.84 | 5 | -1.49 | 5.81 | -0.68 |
| Trevor Cahill | KAN | 3.69 | 3.62 | -0.07 | 3.35 | -0.34 | 3.4 | -0.29 | 2.63 | -1.06 | 4.58 | 3.92 | -0.66 | 3.6 | -0.98 | 4.22 | -0.36 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 4.5 | 5.06 | 0.56 | 4.72 | 0.22 | 3.94 | -0.56 | 6.20 | 1.70 | 3.42 | 4.56 | 1.14 | 4.03 | 0.61 | 2.96 | -0.46 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 5.58 | 5 | -0.58 | 4.81 | -0.77 | 4.95 | -0.63 | 4.76 | -0.82 | 2.7 | 4.75 | 2.05 | 4.94 | 2.24 | 5.85 | 3.15 |
| Yusmeiro Petit | ANA | 2.7 | 3.29 | 0.59 | 4 | 1.3 | 2.91 | 0.21 | 4.09 | 1.39 | 4.5 | 4.2 | -0.3 | 4.73 | 0.23 | 3.35 | -1.15 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 2.92 | 3.35 | 0.43 | 3.25 | 0.33 | 3.3 | 0.38 | 2.59 | -0.33 | 2.33 | 3.61 | 1.28 | 3.54 | 1.21 | 3.26 | 0.93 |
Dinelson Lamet has calmed down his HR rate (10.0 HR/FB over his last five starts, 17.5 HR/FB for the year), but still has just a 56.8 LOB%.
Tanner Roark has just a 63 LOB%.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 0.298 | 0.290 | -0.008 | 44.2% | 0.204 | 11.3% | 85.7% | 87 | 7.50% | 32.50% | 228 |
| Adam Conley | MIA | 0.293 | 0.305 | 0.012 | 42.0% | 0.176 | 17.0% | 84.6% | 86.3 | 5.20% | 36.30% | 135 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | TEX | 0.289 | 0.236 | -0.053 | 38.4% | 0.205 | 9.7% | 86.2% | 87 | 8.80% | 32.00% | 147 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 0.284 | 0.288 | 0.004 | 40.0% | 0.206 | 15.5% | 85.6% | 85.1 | 5.40% | 31.70% | 186 |
| Caleb Smith | NYY | 0.290 | 0.409 | 0.119 | 40.9% | 0.318 | 0.0% | 81.6% | ||||
| Chris Smith | OAK | 0.292 | 0.203 | -0.089 | 39.3% | 0.246 | 4.5% | 88.9% | 86.2 | 6.50% | 27.40% | 62 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 0.295 | 0.167 | -0.128 | 14.3% | 0.143 | 0.0% | 94.4% | ||||
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.303 | 0.288 | -0.015 | 48.6% | 0.185 | 11.3% | 78.4% | 86.8 | 5.70% | 32.00% | 244 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 0.307 | 0.291 | -0.016 | 35.5% | 0.188 | 3.2% | 81.6% | 89.1 | 13.00% | 41.30% | 138 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 0.305 | 0.281 | -0.024 | 35.8% | 0.209 | 4.9% | 82.3% | 87.7 | 9.00% | 32.30% | 189 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 0.307 | 0.332 | 0.025 | 43.1% | 0.19 | 9.1% | 87.8% | 86.9 | 7.60% | 32.10% | 237 |
| German Marquez | COL | 0.302 | 0.318 | 0.016 | 42.8% | 0.223 | 9.8% | 89.4% | 89.1 | 6.70% | 36.30% | 267 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 0.308 | 0.284 | -0.024 | 48.4% | 0.232 | 7.6% | 91.7% | 88 | 6.50% | 36.20% | 434 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.320 | 0.285 | -0.035 | 45.1% | 0.201 | 10.0% | 79.5% | 85.9 | 6.60% | 28.40% | 349 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.297 | 0.320 | 0.023 | 40.6% | 0.205 | 10.0% | 88.9% | 88.1 | 6.20% | 35.20% | 290 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 0.300 | 0.238 | -0.062 | 33.3% | 0.232 | 9.1% | 87.0% | 87.4 | 9.40% | 36.10% | 180 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 0.315 | 0.368 | 0.053 | 42.4% | 0.23 | 9.8% | 85.5% | 88.4 | 9.20% | 36.50% | 359 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 0.283 | 0.280 | -0.003 | 51.1% | 0.216 | 11.5% | 89.1% | 84.8 | 5.10% | 29.70% | 195 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 0.309 | 0.347 | 0.038 | 43.2% | 0.225 | 16.7% | 85.5% | 86.9 | 6.50% | 30.40% | 230 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 0.288 | 0.298 | 0.01 | 39.5% | 0.217 | 9.0% | 90.2% | 88 | 6.90% | 35.80% | 318 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 0.294 | 0.289 | -0.005 | 56.1% | 0.209 | 5.6% | 90.2% | 87.3 | 5.10% | 36.10% | 396 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 0.280 | 0.291 | 0.011 | 38.7% | 0.168 | 13.0% | 81.1% | 83.1 | 5.60% | 26.80% | 179 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | 0.292 | 0.319 | 0.027 | 43.4% | 0.246 | 7.7% | 84.8% | 88 | 4.80% | 36.30% | 124 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.293 | 0.307 | 0.014 | 47.4% | 0.212 | 5.6% | 84.8% | 86.3 | 5.10% | 33.00% | 352 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 0.293 | 0.281 | -0.012 | 34.8% | 0.188 | 8.3% | 83.5% | 86.7 | 6.50% | 32.80% | 293 |
| Trevor Cahill | KAN | 0.299 | 0.329 | 0.03 | 56.8% | 0.173 | 7.1% | 86.9% | 85 | 4.90% | 26.20% | 164 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 0.317 | 0.301 | -0.016 | 46.2% | 0.224 | 8.0% | 88.8% | 85.1 | 4.30% | 30.70% | 368 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 0.279 | 0.297 | 0.018 | 45.8% | 0.212 | 17.9% | 87.7% | 87.4 | 6.50% | 34.80% | 293 |
| Yusmeiro Petit | ANA | 0.285 | 0.262 | -0.023 | 34.7% | 0.17 | 15.5% | 86.3% | 85.1 | 4.00% | 31.30% | 150 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 0.294 | 0.273 | -0.021 | 47.5% | 0.169 | 10.8% | 85.7% | 85.4 | 7.00% | 27.10% | 343 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Corey Kluber (1) has a strikeout rate more than five points higher than anyone one the slate and he’s in a great spot. You want “safe”, pay up. Nothing’s guaranteed on any night of baseball, but this is about as close as you’re going to get today.
Trevor Cahill (3) is traded off his worst start of the season and immediately ends up at Fenway. It sounds like a terrible spot, but the Red Sox have been terrible themselves recently and his cost is way too low, especially on DraftKings ($7K) for the upside he’s exhibited this year. Bump him down a tier on FanDuel if you’d like where I have him as about even with Lamet.
Value Tier Two
Dinelson Lamet (4) still has hard contact issues, but is in a great spot to get around them hosting the Pirates. It may bring his strikeout rate down slightly, but he has enough to spare for less than $8K.
Value Tier Three
There is no tier three today in order to display the sizeable gap from the three guys above to the couple of guys below. Potential upside was mentioned in some of the high risk omissions today whom players may have the tolerance to use as an SP2 today if necessary.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Zack Greinke (2) is still missing bats at an above average rate and managing contact well, especially outside of Arizona. All this projects well in St Louis, but the strikeout rate has been merely good (not great) recently and he’s easily the second most expensive pitcher on the board.
Tanner Roark had one of his strikeout spikes last time out and while we’ve seen these occasionally from him, never sustained, he is in a great spot tonight for less than $8K.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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