Advanced Stats - Pitching: Saturday, June 3rd
Because the Saturday night slate is just five games, we’re going to attempt to cover the entire day today and do it before noon. Good luck to me.
Unfortunately, much of this is being written with Fangraphs slogging on me on Saturday morning as well.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 0.8 | 4.45 | 5.64 | 49.2% | 0.89 | 4.54 | 4.51 | SEA | 112 | 109 | 136 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 1.3 | 4.83 | 5.38 | 47.2% | 1.11 | 4.43 | 6.13 | HOU | 127 | 124 | 181 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | -5.5 | 3.16 | 6.15 | 49.4% | 1.06 | 3.12 | 4.18 | KAN | 79 | 78 | 87 |
| Daniel Mengden | OAK | -14.3 | 4.57 | 5.01 | 39.4% | 0.93 | 4.54 | 6.06 | WAS | 109 | 116 | 126 |
| David Price | BOS | 5.1 | 3.35 | 6.68 | 43.6% | 1.02 | 3.9 | 4.6 | BAL | 92 | 99 | 98 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | -3.5 | 4.43 | 5.72 | 34.4% | 1.02 | 4.55 | 4.67 | BOS | 107 | 96 | 86 |
| Edinson Volquez | FLA | 4.7 | 4.64 | 5.66 | 48.8% | 0.94 | 4.41 | 5.04 | ARI | 74 | 107 | 62 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 9.1 | 4.42 | 6.31 | 41.8% | 0.91 | 4.33 | 4.28 | ANA | 107 | 91 | 94 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 8 | 4.26 | 5.26 | 39.1% | 1.06 | 4.36 | 5.17 | CLE | 91 | 104 | 114 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | -7.9 | 4.32 | 5.3 | 49.6% | 0.91 | 3.8 | 4.05 | COL | 90 | 82 | 55 |
| Joe Biagini | TOR | -2 | 3.35 | 4.62 | 55.4% | 1.03 | 3.39 | 3.28 | NYY | 110 | 121 | 122 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | -1.9 | 3.91 | 5.57 | 44.7% | 0.93 | 4.04 | 3.74 | OAK | 116 | 100 | 69 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | -0.2 | 3.76 | 6.61 | 46.2% | 0.96 | 3.41 | 2.48 | PHI | 98 | 87 | 56 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 2.3 | 3.44 | 6.31 | 48.5% | 0.96 | 3.34 | 3.27 | STL | 92 | 75 | 79 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 1.3 | 4.26 | 5.57 | 37.9% | 1.03 | 4.5 | 3.31 | TOR | 101 | 89 | 142 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 2.6 | 4.34 | 5.86 | 40.0% | 0.98 | 5.38 | 5.14 | CHW | 87 | 79 | 87 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 1.6 | 3.47 | 5.84 | 53.3% | 1.11 | 3.53 | 3.17 | TEX | 100 | 97 | 93 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | -4 | 4.58 | 5.59 | 48.4% | 1.02 | 4.03 | 4.52 | LOS | 89 | 108 | 96 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | -5.6 | 4.01 | 5.75 | 40.3% | 0.91 | 3.43 | 4.66 | MIN | 104 | 109 | 116 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 0.4 | 4.73 | 5.7 | 39.9% | 0.98 | 4.98 | 3.89 | DET | 123 | 98 | 120 |
| Mike Leake | STL | -11.6 | 3.91 | 6.22 | 52.8% | 0.96 | 3.85 | 3.39 | CHC | 104 | 85 | 61 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 2.6 | 4.87 | 6.12 | 43.4% | 1.02 | 4.85 | 6.22 | CIN | 104 | 102 | 100 |
| Randall Delgado | ARI | -4.9 | 3.94 | 4. | 42.4% | 0.94 | 4.62 | 2.76 | FLA | 96 | 93 | 124 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 1 | 3.36 | 5.56 | 44.3% | 1.02 | 3.28 | 6.92 | MIL | 97 | 97 | 86 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 1.1 | 4.03 | 5.51 | 0.551 | 0.91 | 3.49 | 4.04 | PIT | 86 | 92 | 102 |
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 6.7 | 5.27 | 5.33 | 0.448 | 0.89 | 4.81 | 6.43 | TAM | 106 | 115 | 134 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 13.6 | 4.35 | 5.59 | 0.474 | 1.02 | 4.11 | 2.69 | ATL | 90 | 93 | 66 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 0.7 | 4.61 | 5.84 | 0.572 | 0.91 | 4.25 | 4.37 | SDG | 80 | 84 | 94 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | -7.4 | 4.7 | 4.37 | 0.462 | 0.91 | 4.47 | 3.98 | NYM | 86 | 100 | 100 |
| Ben Lively | PHI | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.96 | SFO | 76 | 75 | 93 |
Carlos Carrasco bounced back from a couple of rough outings (10 IP – 9 ER – 7 BB – 12 K – 49 BF) with seven innings of two run ball with seven strikeouts against the A’s last time out. As you can see, he was still missing bats previously, but had other issues, including walks. He hasn’t had control problems in years. While his 19.7 K-BB% is right in line with last year, he hasn’t exhibited tremendous upside, but has consistently struck out five to eight batters in every start this season. There have been a few less ground balls (45.7%) leading to a few more HRs (eight) so far, but it has not been a disastrous effect and his hard hit rate is back below 30% after having been well above last year. His 10.4% Barrels/BBE is highest on the board, but considering his overall contact rates, it could be a bit of a fluke. He faces an offense that does not make a lot of loud contact tonight (8.8 HR/FB) at home in one of the more favorable matchups on the board.
Joe Biagini pushed over five innings for the first time in his five starts. The previous couple weren’t that great, but overall, through five starts, he has an impressive 14.1 K-BB%, 62.5 GB% and 26 Hard%. Now he’s thrown 95 pitches in a start and his barrel rates are best on the board for the season. The Yankees are still a collection of tough hitters and possibly the second worst matchup on paper (or internet space?) today.
Joe Ross has struggled against batters from both sides this year, but has traditionally kept RHBs on the ground with sufficient strikeouts, while struggling with LHBs. The 15.6 K-BB% still plays, but the 40 GB% and 38.7 Hard% are a bit of concern, though less so in this big park against an offense which gets a decent amount of its power from the RH side.
Johnny Cueto gets a park downgrade tonight, but the poor offense makes up for it. The 40.8 GB%, 35.9 Hard% and 16.2 HR/FB are both career worst for any season with at least 70 innings pitched now, but his 17.1 K-BB% is right on par with last season. He was a strikeout machine in May (28.6%).
Jon Lester has nearly been the same pitcher as Cueto by estimators and K%, even showing the sharp increase in May. He has a similar quality matchup, though you wouldn’t think it against the Cardinals. They’ve been completely insufferable against LHP (5.4 HR/FB).
Lance McCullers allowed an ER for the first time in nearly a month last time out, but a .214 BABIP and 89.7 LOB% makes the miniscule ERA more than a bit deceptive. His bat missing skills actually took a major dip, remaining just a bit above average. It’s been more inconsistent than anything with a five or fewer strikeouts in four of 11 starts this season, though he’s only been below an 11 SwStr% three times this season with exceptional contact management (60.7 GB%, 2.4 Hard-Soft%), which should go a long way in this difficult park against the average offense that inhabits it.
Mike Leake had a 9.5 SwStr% in May. If he can be even near league average, he becomes a useful daily fantasy pitcher on occasion in a big park with his ground ball skills. His 14.0 K-BB% is a career high. His four run effort last time out was his worst of the season (against a tough Dodgers lineup), though he still went at least seven innings for the fourth time in five starts and accumulated six strikeouts. He’s have five to seven of those in eight of 10 starts. He faces a Cubs offense that we have to start accepting has not been very good this season.
Randall Delgado struck out eight of 20 Pirates in his second start of the season with a 16.3 SwStr%. Even if we expect his strikeout rate to drop a bit from the rotation, he can probably sustain something of a league average mark and he’s not walking anyone this year. While his rate of Barrels is a bit high, overall contact hasn’t been that bad with reasonable aEV and hard hit rates. He’s in a decent spot in Miami.
Scott Feldman has not been terrible this season, hovering around a league average strikeout rate. The Braves have been terrible without Freeman and couldn’t even touch Bronson Arroyo last night.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.288 BABIP – 73.4 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Ervin Santana (.143 – 91.2% – 9.2) has an ERA over two runs removed from his estimators and three from his SIERA. That’s absurd at this point in the season and you see why. He’s not terrible, but he’s not a true $10K pitcher.
Dylan Bundy (.263 – 83.8% – 8.5) may not look it by ERA, but he’s been a disappointment considering the stuff he showed this March.
Alex Cobb (.292 – 75.5% – 12.3) has allowed three unearned runs, which would bring his ERA above four and had just a 6.4 SwStr% in May.
Miguel Gonzalez (.294 – 70.7 – 9.3) has allowed three unearned runs, which isn’t that many, but he has just a 14.3 K%.
Andrew Cashner (.250 – 80.1% – 7.8)
Sam Gaviglio (.228 – 69% – 20.0)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Ben Lively is not really a prospect and making his debut at age 25. His 17.1 K-BB% at AAA this season came with an average strikeout rate and exceptional walk rate. Expecting a slight reduction at a higher level might make him the fifth starter/swing man he’s projected to be, but this is another unknown entity in a strong spot tonight. Who could argue too much with the element of surprise at a low cost in an SP2 spot?
Tyler Chatwood has a league average strikeout rate with a 57% ground ball rate that should play in a great spot in San Diego, but the control has been atrocious (12.7 BB%), frequently knocking him out sometimes during or prior to the sixth inning.
Jordan Montgomery certainly misses enough bats to be useful at a low cost and his 24.7 Hard% doesn’t hurt the cause either. He just finds himself in a more difficult spot against a hot and fully healthy Toronto offense (20.8 HR/FB last seven days).
Jhoulys Chacin probably hasn’t been as bad as his ERA, which appears to be inflated by BABIP and strand rate. He increased his strikeouts in May and may even have the top matchup on the board against the Rockies. I wouldn’t be against him in an SP2 spot on DraftKings at a very low cost, but can’t strongly endorse him either.
David Price was okay in his first start (5 IP – 3 ER – 4 K), throwing 88 pitches. That should get him over 90 with a price that’s still a bit reduced from his standard. For all the talk of a blown up elbow, his velocity actually appeared up from last season, though it could have been adrenaline and velocity is not always how elbow issues get you. I’m just not sure what he is right now and while it doesn’t really show (22.2 K-BB% last seven days), Baltimore has picked up the offense the last few days.
Robert Gsellman has looked a bit better in recent starts and has a nice matchup against the Pirates (though they exploded on Harvey last night), but still isn’t missing nearly as many bats as last season.
Daniel Mengden had a nice 18.5 K-BB% at AAA this season and has been above 17% for most of his minor league travels. His 11.5 K-BB% in the majors last year is around league average, but he had major BABIP (.344) and strand rate (61.5%) issues. He stunk in his first start this year, allowing three HRs with just one strikeout against Cleveland. He may be someone we later revisit in a better spot. Washington may not be it even without Harper. Is he back today?
Matt Shoemaker at least appears to be missing bats again, but has allowed a lot of loud contact and faces a well-disciplined offense that has really reduced their chase rate leading to much greater overall team success this year (10.4 BB% vs RHP). It should be interesting to see if he can get them to chase that splitter out of the zone.
Rich Hill has had a few issues and may be on a restrained workload tonight.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 16.5% | 6.9% | Road | 14.8% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 11.3% |
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 17.3% | 10.5% | Home | 18.7% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 8.0% | 12.0% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 27.2% | 6.0% | Road | 27.6% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 23.6% | 9.1% |
| Daniel Mengden | Athletics | L2 Years | 20.6% | 9.7% | Home | 22.8% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 5.6% | 5.6% |
| David Price | Red Sox | L2 Years | 25.5% | 5.2% | Road | 21.2% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 10.0% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 20.2% | 8.2% | Home | 20.0% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 7.1% |
| Edinson Volquez | Marlins | L2 Years | 17.4% | 9.4% | Home | 19.2% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 12.8% | 8.5% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 19.2% | 7.9% | Road | 20.4% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 20.3% | 6.8% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 20.8% | 7.9% | Home | 20.3% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 12.8% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 19.0% | 8.5% | Home | 20.7% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 6.1% |
| Joe Biagini | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 21.3% | 6.0% | Home | 21.8% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 8.5% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | L2 Years | 21.1% | 6.2% | Road | 21.8% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 1.9% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 21.4% | 5.4% | Road | 24.1% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 4.2% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.2% | 6.4% | Home | 25.5% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 27.1% | 4.2% |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Years | 22.4% | 8.9% | Road | 17.5% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 2.2% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 17.4% | 5.3% | Home | 13.5% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 6.0% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 27.1% | 9.4% | Road | 23.9% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 9.1% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 15.7% | 7.1% | Home | 19.2% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 4.2% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | L2 Years | 21.0% | 5.9% | Home | 25.7% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 17.8% | 6.7% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 16.0% | 7.0% | Road | 15.3% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 2.0% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 16.8% | 4.6% | Road | 16.8% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 1.9% |
| R.A. Dickey | Braves | L2 Years | 15.4% | 8.1% | Road | 16.0% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 9.2% | 12.6% |
| Randall Delgado | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 22.5% | 9.9% | Road | 21.6% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 29.8% | 4.3% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 29.1% | 8.1% | Road | 31.3% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 19.5% | 22.0% |
| Robert Gsellman | Mets | L2 Years | 19.0% | 7.6% | Home | 19.9% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 5.3% |
| Sam Gaviglio | Mariners | L2 Years | 10.7% | 6.7% | Home | 10.0% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 4.3% | 8.5% |
| Scott Feldman | Reds | L2 Years | 16.5% | 6.8% | Home | 18.2% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 4.6% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 18.0% | 11.1% | Road | 19.4% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 14.9% |
| Tyler Glasnow | Pirates | L2 Years | 20.7% | 11.9% | Road | 22.2% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 4.1% |
| Ben Lively | Phillies | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | Home | L14 Days |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners | Home | 19.1% | 10.3% | RH | 20.4% | 9.0% | L7Days | 17.9% | 7.9% |
| Astros | Road | 18.7% | 9.2% | RH | 18.6% | 7.9% | L7Days | 15.6% | 9.3% |
| Royals | Home | 18.9% | 7.2% | RH | 21.1% | 6.5% | L7Days | 15.7% | 6.0% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.2% | 8.8% | RH | 19.3% | 9.3% | L7Days | 19.7% | 6.6% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.9% | 7.7% | LH | 24.5% | 7.6% | L7Days | 27.0% | 4.8% |
| Red Sox | Road | 18.6% | 9.1% | RH | 18.5% | 9.2% | L7Days | 20.2% | 6.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 24.9% | 8.1% | RH | 22.8% | 8.7% | L7Days | 23.3% | 6.5% |
| Angels | Home | 18.1% | 8.2% | RH | 20.3% | 8.8% | L7Days | 19.8% | 8.9% |
| Indians | Road | 19.8% | 9.2% | RH | 20.8% | 9.4% | L7Days | 16.4% | 8.2% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.4% | 7.3% | RH | 21.8% | 7.6% | L7Days | 19.6% | 7.5% |
| Yankees | Road | 21.5% | 9.1% | RH | 22.4% | 9.5% | L7Days | 20.4% | 9.1% |
| Athletics | Home | 24.1% | 8.6% | RH | 25.0% | 9.1% | L7Days | 35.8% | 7.3% |
| Phillies | Home | 20.3% | 8.8% | RH | 22.8% | 8.2% | L7Days | 23.6% | 5.4% |
| Cardinals | Road | 20.2% | 8.2% | LH | 22.2% | 9.9% | L7Days | 22.0% | 8.1% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 19.5% | 8.2% | LH | 23.0% | 10.3% | L7Days | 14.8% | 8.4% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.0% | 5.9% | RH | 23.1% | 6.0% | L7Days | 26.3% | 4.8% |
| Rangers | Home | 21.7% | 9.5% | RH | 22.5% | 8.9% | L7Days | 25.8% | 7.9% |
| Dodgers | Road | 23.5% | 10.2% | RH | 23.3% | 10.1% | L7Days | 27.9% | 11.4% |
| Twins | Road | 20.5% | 9.1% | RH | 22.2% | 10.4% | L7Days | 22.6% | 10.3% |
| Tigers | Home | 20.2% | 10.3% | RH | 23.6% | 10.4% | L7Days | 23.6% | 10.9% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.3% | 10.2% | RH | 22.0% | 9.1% | L7Days | 23.9% | 11.0% |
| Reds | Home | 21.8% | 8.4% | RH | 21.2% | 8.3% | L7Days | 26.7% | 8.0% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.2% | 8.3% | RH | 20.5% | 7.0% | L7Days | 20.7% | 9.2% |
| Brewers | Home | 27.0% | 8.9% | LH | 27.2% | 9.0% | L7Days | 30.6% | 9.6% |
| Pirates | Road | 19.4% | 9.1% | RH | 18.6% | 8.8% | L7Days | 22.2% | 8.1% |
| Rays | Road | 27.4% | 9.9% | RH | 25.8% | 9.4% | L7Days | 21.6% | 8.8% |
| Braves | Road | 19.9% | 7.4% | RH | 20.0% | 8.0% | L7Days | 19.9% | 5.6% |
| Padres | Home | 23.5% | 8.8% | RH | 25.6% | 7.4% | L7Days | 31.8% | 5.1% |
| Mets | Home | 19.8% | 9.4% | RH | 19.3% | 9.2% | L7Days | 19.9% | 6.2% |
| Giants | Road | 20.6% | 8.3% | RH | 20.0% | 7.4% | L7Days | 21.6% | 10.8% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 34.9% | 14.8% | 20.1% | 2017 | 36.9% | 12.3% | 23.1% | Road | 31.6% | 12.1% | 17.6% | L14 Days | 47.2% | 20.0% | 30.5% |
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 32.7% | 11.3% | 16.6% | 2017 | 29.3% | 7.8% | 9.2% | Home | 32.9% | 12.9% | 18.4% | L14 Days | 32.5% | 0.0% | 5.0% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 31.1% | 15.3% | 13.9% | 2017 | 29.3% | 14.3% | 11.6% | Road | 31.6% | 9.9% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 11.8% | 11.8% |
| Daniel Mengden | Athletics | L2 Years | 30.4% | 14.0% | 12.1% | 2017 | 43.8% | 50.0% | 31.3% | Home | 30.9% | 11.6% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 43.8% | 50.0% | 31.3% |
| David Price | Red Sox | L2 Years | 32.3% | 11.9% | 13.7% | 2017 | 25.0% | 25.0% | -8.3% | Road | 33.9% | 11.3% | 14.5% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 25.0% | -8.3% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 30.3% | 11.4% | 7.5% | 2017 | 33.8% | 8.5% | 12.2% | Home | 28.3% | 10.8% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 36.6% | 10.5% | 26.8% |
| Edinson Volquez | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.5% | 11.5% | 13.0% | 2017 | 35.8% | 13.0% | 17.3% | Home | 30.1% | 9.6% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 29.7% | 9.1% | 5.4% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 28.0% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 2017 | 24.5% | 9.2% | 2.9% | Road | 29.0% | 8.2% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 20.9% | 5.3% | 9.3% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 33.0% | 13.1% | 15.1% | 2017 | 31.6% | 9.5% | 14.9% | Home | 28.8% | 9.2% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 7.7% | 9.4% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 31.5% | 12.6% | 13.2% | 2017 | 27.9% | 15.1% | 9.3% | Home | 25.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 36.0% | 20.0% | 24.0% |
| Joe Biagini | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 23.9% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 2017 | 25.4% | 10.7% | 4.1% | Home | 27.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 24.2% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | L2 Years | 31.1% | 11.5% | 13.4% | 2017 | 38.7% | 20.6% | 17.2% | Road | 33.3% | 11.9% | 19.1% | L14 Days | 43.9% | 14.3% | 17.1% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 29.0% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 2017 | 35.9% | 16.2% | 21.3% | Road | 31.3% | 17.9% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 36.7% | 27.3% | 20.0% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 27.4% | 11.0% | 7.0% | 2017 | 25.1% | 12.3% | 4.3% | Home | 26.0% | 8.8% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 12.5% | 9.1% |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Years | 24.7% | 7.8% | 11.7% | 2017 | 24.7% | 7.8% | 11.7% | Road | 20.0% | 4.8% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 7.7% | 21.2% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 31.3% | 13.6% | 13.2% | 2017 | 39.3% | 18.2% | 24.5% | Home | 36.4% | 15.0% | 20.7% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 33.3% | 7.5% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 27.0% | 12.3% | 5.5% | 2017 | 25.0% | 18.2% | 2.4% | Road | 32.1% | 6.9% | 15.3% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 14.3% | -3.9% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 34.8% | 12.2% | 17.9% | 2017 | 37.3% | 12.2% | 26.2% | Home | 40.9% | 18.0% | 27.4% | L14 Days | 40.5% | 15.8% | 27.0% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | L2 Years | 31.0% | 11.5% | 13.6% | 2017 | 36.6% | 14.6% | 22.1% | Home | 31.7% | 11.7% | 15.7% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 13.3% | 11.8% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 29.6% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 2017 | 30.2% | 9.3% | 13.2% | Road | 30.3% | 8.2% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 41.5% | 16.7% | 39.1% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.1% | 11.8% | 13.3% | 2017 | 29.1% | 10.7% | 12.6% | Road | 34.3% | 9.3% | 18.6% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 16.7% | 26.2% |
| R.A. Dickey | Braves | L2 Years | 27.0% | 12.0% | 5.8% | 2017 | 28.5% | 18.3% | 5.8% | Road | 30.5% | 12.4% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 25.4% | 9.5% | -1.5% |
| Randall Delgado | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 32.5% | 9.5% | 15.8% | 2017 | 29.0% | 13.9% | 14.0% | Road | 30.4% | 7.3% | 15.9% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 9.1% | 3.2% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 27.3% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2017 | 28.1% | 10.7% | 7.0% | Road | 25.6% | 4.3% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 0.0% | -4.4% |
| Robert Gsellman | Mets | L2 Years | 29.7% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 2017 | 30.7% | 14.3% | 9.1% | Home | 27.1% | 10.3% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 20.9% | 7.7% | -9.3% |
| Sam Gaviglio | Mariners | L2 Years | 27.9% | 20.0% | 13.1% | 2017 | 27.9% | 20.0% | 13.1% | Home | 37.5% | 0.0% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 21.4% | 12.2% |
| Scott Feldman | Reds | L2 Years | 26.5% | 13.1% | 6.5% | 2017 | 30.5% | 14.3% | 9.6% | Home | 26.6% | 11.5% | 3.2% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 40.0% | 17.9% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 29.3% | 15.3% | 9.2% | 2017 | 28.7% | 25.0% | 5.5% | Road | 24.4% | 9.5% | -1.7% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 0.0% | -14.3% |
| Tyler Glasnow | Pirates | L2 Years | 30.1% | 12.9% | 9.3% | 2017 | 31.1% | 14.0% | 10.6% | Road | 34.4% | 22.6% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 47.5% | 10.0% | 30.0% |
| Ben Lively | Phillies | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2017 | Home | L14 Days |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners | Home | 29.6% | 10.8% | 9.8% | RH | 30.4% | 11.5% | 12.5% | L7Days | 34.0% | 9.9% | 17.2% |
| Astros | Road | 31.1% | 13.9% | 13.1% | RH | 31.4% | 15.2% | 13.4% | L7Days | 33.2% | 21.9% | 17.7% |
| Royals | Home | 31.2% | 8.8% | 11.3% | RH | 32.0% | 12.3% | 12.2% | L7Days | 31.6% | 8.1% | 10.2% |
| Nationals | Road | 30.2% | 14.8% | 12.0% | RH | 31.3% | 14.8% | 14.2% | L7Days | 30.2% | 14.5% | 13.4% |
| Orioles | Home | 27.9% | 13.4% | 7.4% | LH | 36.1% | 13.4% | 18.8% | L7Days | 30.8% | 16.9% | 10.4% |
| Red Sox | Road | 33.3% | 12.4% | 13.9% | RH | 35.8% | 9.4% | 18.5% | L7Days | 35.0% | 15.4% | 15.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 28.9% | 13.1% | 8.5% | RH | 36.2% | 16.3% | 19.3% | L7Days | 28.3% | 7.6% | 4.7% |
| Angels | Home | 29.0% | 14.3% | 9.8% | RH | 30.6% | 13.2% | 10.7% | L7Days | 30.4% | 18.2% | 12.2% |
| Indians | Road | 35.6% | 10.8% | 18.2% | RH | 34.1% | 12.7% | 17.8% | L7Days | 32.1% | 14.3% | 18.1% |
| Rockies | Road | 30.7% | 12.7% | 10.5% | RH | 30.4% | 13.4% | 10.1% | L7Days | 23.8% | 9.1% | 2.2% |
| Yankees | Road | 32.0% | 13.1% | 14.7% | RH | 32.0% | 17.2% | 12.9% | L7Days | 38.6% | 13.3% | 24.3% |
| Athletics | Home | 34.1% | 17.6% | 20.1% | RH | 35.5% | 16.2% | 19.6% | L7Days | 33.3% | 17.0% | 17.4% |
| Phillies | Home | 29.3% | 14.0% | 7.9% | RH | 28.8% | 10.6% | 6.8% | L7Days | 24.5% | 10.2% | 6.3% |
| Cardinals | Road | 32.8% | 11.1% | 16.4% | LH | 34.1% | 5.4% | 16.8% | L7Days | 32.8% | 12.5% | 8.8% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 30.4% | 14.1% | 11.0% | LH | 30.1% | 13.0% | 10.9% | L7Days | 33.0% | 20.8% | 15.2% |
| White Sox | Road | 29.5% | 14.2% | 11.4% | RH | 27.7% | 13.3% | 8.0% | L7Days | 26.9% | 11.8% | 4.7% |
| Rangers | Home | 33.1% | 15.1% | 13.2% | RH | 32.8% | 14.6% | 12.1% | L7Days | 27.0% | 13.7% | -0.6% |
| Dodgers | Road | 32.5% | 9.9% | 16.3% | RH | 34.6% | 13.8% | 19.8% | L7Days | 33.5% | 15.9% | 17.0% |
| Twins | Road | 32.4% | 13.5% | 16.7% | RH | 33.5% | 14.0% | 18.2% | L7Days | 34.8% | 16.2% | 20.3% |
| Tigers | Home | 49.6% | 13.3% | 35.8% | RH | 41.7% | 12.0% | 26.5% | L7Days | 37.9% | 12.7% | 23.8% |
| Cubs | Home | 31.0% | 15.9% | 14.6% | RH | 29.5% | 11.8% | 12.5% | L7Days | 23.7% | 7.9% | 1.5% |
| Reds | Home | 28.7% | 14.7% | 7.7% | RH | 28.6% | 13.6% | 8.4% | L7Days | 28.3% | 26.0% | 9.0% |
| Marlins | Home | 32.0% | 16.9% | 10.2% | RH | 31.2% | 13.9% | 10.8% | L7Days | 29.1% | 22.2% | 5.5% |
| Brewers | Home | 38.1% | 18.5% | 17.3% | LH | 36.0% | 17.1% | 14.8% | L7Days | 35.1% | 11.1% | 16.4% |
| Pirates | Road | 29.6% | 11.8% | 8.1% | RH | 30.1% | 10.4% | 8.1% | L7Days | 36.5% | 11.5% | 14.7% |
| Rays | Road | 35.4% | 19.0% | 16.8% | RH | 36.1% | 18.1% | 18.3% | L7Days | 34.4% | 22.1% | 15.3% |
| Braves | Road | 30.7% | 11.1% | 12.3% | RH | 30.9% | 10.8% | 12.9% | L7Days | 29.4% | 7.4% | 11.3% |
| Padres | Home | 27.0% | 11.9% | 4.3% | RH | 28.8% | 14.4% | 6.8% | L7Days | 30.6% | 18.9% | 14.2% |
| Mets | Home | 32.8% | 8.9% | 13.6% | RH | 35.3% | 12.0% | 17.8% | L7Days | 41.6% | 12.9% | 27.7% |
| Giants | Road | 31.7% | 9.8% | 11.3% | RH | 29.4% | 9.1% | 8.0% | L7Days | 29.7% | 3.6% | 13.6% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.6 SwStr% – 2.14 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 17.0% | 7.3% | 2.33 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 2.94 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 10.7% | 6.2% | 1.73 | 10.7% | 5.6% | 1.91 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 26.1% | 11.8% | 2.21 | 25.6% | 12.2% | 2.10 |
| Daniel Mengden | OAK | 5.6% | 2.8% | 2.00 | 5.6% | 2.8% | 2.00 |
| David Price | BOS | 20.0% | 11.4% | 1.75 | 20.0% | 11.4% | 1.75 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 17.3% | 9.8% | 1.77 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 1.99 |
| Edinson Volquez | FLA | 20.4% | 8.7% | 2.34 | 15.3% | 7.5% | 2.04 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 19.3% | 8.5% | 2.27 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 2.01 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 16.7% | 8.5% | 1.96 | 15.9% | 8.8% | 1.81 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 19.3% | 7.5% | 2.57 | 20.4% | 8.9% | 2.29 |
| Joe Biagini | TOR | 21.8% | 10.1% | 2.16 | 23.2% | 11.3% | 2.05 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 19.7% | 8.6% | 2.29 | 19.2% | 9.1% | 2.11 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 23.2% | 11.8% | 1.97 | 28.6% | 12.9% | 2.22 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 24.5% | 11.2% | 2.19 | 28.8% | 13.3% | 2.17 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 22.4% | 12.6% | 1.78 | 20.5% | 10.8% | 1.90 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 13.6% | 7.9% | 1.72 | 14.2% | 7.5% | 1.89 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 27.6% | 12.0% | 2.30 | 23.3% | 10.8% | 2.16 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 18.8% | 8.7% | 2.16 | 16.8% | 8.8% | 1.91 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.95 | 23.5% | 12.5% | 1.88 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 14.3% | 6.9% | 2.07 | 13.5% | 5.7% | 2.37 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 18.1% | 8.4% | 2.15 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 1.81 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 11.1% | 6.5% | 1.71 | 7.8% | 6.0% | 1.30 |
| Randall Delgado | ARI | 23.7% | 11.4% | 2.08 | 29.1% | 14.8% | 1.97 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 22.3% | 8.2% | 2.72 | 23.0% | 8.4% | 2.74 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 16.1% | 7.2% | 2.24 | 14.6% | 7.8% | 1.87 |
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 10.7% | 5.1% | 2.10 | 10.7% | 5.1% | 2.10 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 20.2% | 8.7% | 2.32 | 20.0% | 8.3% | 2.41 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 19.4% | 9.6% | 2.02 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 2.09 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | 19.7% | 8.5% | 2.32 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 2.27 |
| Ben Lively | PHI |
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.14 ERA – 4.20 SIERA – 4.15 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 3.67 | 4.42 | 0.75 | 4.24 | 0.57 | 4.13 | 0.46 | 4.60 | 0.93 | 3.48 | 4.46 | 0.98 | 4.27 | 0.79 | 3.9 | 0.42 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 2.92 | 6 | 3.08 | 5.49 | 2.57 | 4.81 | 1.89 | 5.75 | 2.83 | 2.9 | 5.44 | 2.54 | 4.81 | 1.91 | 4.1 | 1.2 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 2.89 | 3.44 | 0.55 | 3.44 | 0.55 | 3.56 | 0.67 | 2.45 | -0.44 | 3.9 | 3.6 | -0.3 | 3.72 | -0.18 | 3.47 | -0.43 |
| Daniel Mengden | OAK | 13.5 | 6.04 | -7.46 | 6.43 | -7.07 | 15.04 | 1.54 | 13.06 | -0.44 | 13.5 | 6.06 | -7.44 | 6.43 | -7.07 | 15.04 | 1.54 |
| David Price | BOS | 5.4 | 4.6 | -0.8 | 5.21 | -0.19 | 6.44 | 1.04 | 3.06 | -2.34 | 5.4 | 4.6 | -0.8 | 5.21 | -0.19 | 6.44 | 1.04 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 2.89 | 4.78 | 1.89 | 4.84 | 1.95 | 4.04 | 1.15 | 5.42 | 2.53 | 4.22 | 4.8 | 0.58 | 5.09 | 0.87 | 5.01 | 0.79 |
| Edinson Volquez | FLA | 4.44 | 4.98 | 0.54 | 4.63 | 0.19 | 4.61 | 0.17 | 4.14 | -0.30 | 4.13 | 4.86 | 0.73 | 4.59 | 0.46 | 4.25 | 0.12 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 1.75 | 4.75 | 3 | 4.69 | 2.94 | 4.1 | 2.35 | 2.95 | 1.20 | 3 | 5.32 | 2.32 | 5.28 | 2.28 | 5.34 | 2.34 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 6.18 | 5.08 | -1.1 | 5.49 | -0.69 | 4.78 | -1.4 | 6.75 | 0.57 | 5.83 | 4.98 | -0.85 | 5.31 | -0.52 | 5.39 | -0.44 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 5.77 | 4.16 | -1.61 | 4.06 | -1.71 | 4.29 | -1.48 | 6.31 | 0.54 | 5.7 | 3.98 | -1.72 | 3.92 | -1.78 | 4.52 | -1.18 |
| Joe Biagini | TOR | 3.64 | 3.13 | -0.51 | 3.21 | -0.43 | 2.99 | -0.65 | 2.67 | -0.97 | 4.68 | 3.15 | -1.53 | 2.93 | -1.75 | 2.8 | -1.88 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 6.18 | 3.99 | -2.19 | 3.96 | -2.22 | 5.13 | -1.05 | 4.57 | -1.61 | 4.5 | 3.74 | -0.76 | 3.62 | -0.88 | 3.79 | -0.71 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 4.37 | 3.76 | -0.61 | 3.58 | -0.79 | 3.95 | -0.42 | 3.29 | -1.08 | 3.82 | 3.11 | -0.71 | 2.93 | -0.89 | 3.34 | -0.48 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 3.86 | 3.76 | -0.1 | 3.59 | -0.27 | 3.48 | -0.38 | 3.38 | -0.48 | 4.06 | 3.24 | -0.82 | 2.97 | -1.09 | 2.84 | -1.22 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 4.11 | 4.26 | 0.15 | 4.51 | 0.4 | 3.61 | -0.5 | 3.80 | -0.31 | 4.08 | 4.33 | 0.25 | 4.57 | 0.49 | 3.6 | -0.48 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 6.47 | 5.32 | -1.15 | 5.61 | -0.86 | 6.63 | 0.16 | 6.93 | 0.46 | 6.75 | 5.06 | -1.69 | 5.35 | -1.4 | 7.82 | 1.07 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 2.48 | 3 | 0.52 | 2.77 | 0.29 | 3.1 | 0.62 | 2.50 | 0.02 | 0.6 | 3.17 | 2.57 | 3.08 | 2.48 | 2.77 | 2.17 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 3.98 | 4.2 | 0.22 | 4.17 | 0.19 | 4.02 | 0.04 | 5.12 | 1.14 | 4.2 | 4.47 | 0.27 | 4.49 | 0.29 | 3.94 | -0.26 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 4.26 | 4.28 | 0.02 | 4.71 | 0.45 | 4.96 | 0.7 | 5.00 | 0.74 | 3.68 | 4.02 | 0.34 | 4.35 | 0.67 | 4.16 | 0.48 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 4.43 | 5.06 | 0.63 | 5.14 | 0.71 | 4.45 | 0.02 | 6.19 | 1.76 | 5.7 | 5.2 | -0.5 | 5.1 | -0.6 | 5.2 | -0.5 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 2.24 | 3.79 | 1.55 | 3.52 | 1.28 | 3.26 | 1.02 | 3.55 | 1.31 | 3.09 | 4.05 | 0.96 | 3.81 | 0.72 | 4.47 | 1.38 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 4.95 | 5.58 | 0.63 | 5.4 | 0.45 | 6.07 | 1.12 | 8.35 | 3.40 | 5.93 | 6.13 | 0.2 | 6.02 | 0.09 | 6.23 | 0.3 |
| Randall Delgado | ARI | 3.47 | 3.13 | -0.34 | 3.31 | -0.16 | 3.39 | -0.08 | 3.37 | -0.10 | 1.31 | 2.64 | 1.33 | 2.74 | 1.43 | 1.88 | 0.57 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 4.09 | 5.16 | 1.07 | 5.5 | 1.41 | 5.08 | 0.99 | 7.51 | 3.42 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 0.7 | 5.85 | 1.35 | 4.32 | -0.18 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 5.75 | 4.25 | -1.5 | 4.24 | -1.51 | 4.35 | -1.4 | 6.24 | 0.49 | 4.68 | 4.47 | -0.21 | 4.49 | -0.19 | 4.4 | -0.28 |
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 3.5 | 5.27 | 1.77 | 5.06 | 1.56 | 6.04 | 2.54 | 7.34 | 3.84 | 3.5 | 5.27 | 1.77 | 5.06 | 1.56 | 6.04 | 2.54 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 4.26 | 4.34 | 0.08 | 3.97 | -0.29 | 4.08 | -0.18 | 3.88 | -0.38 | 3.64 | 3.76 | 0.12 | 3.47 | -0.17 | 3.74 | 0.1 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 5.04 | 4.61 | -0.43 | 4.01 | -1.03 | 4.87 | -0.17 | 3.72 | -1.32 | 4.55 | 4.77 | 0.22 | 3.95 | -0.6 | 3.33 | -1.22 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | 6.95 | 4.81 | -2.14 | 4.84 | -2.11 | 4.96 | -1.99 | 8.96 | 2.01 | 6.93 | 4.36 | -2.57 | 4.23 | -2.7 | 4.98 | -1.95 |
| Ben Lively | PHI |
Carlos Carrasco is rocking an unsustainable .231 BABIP and 81.4 LOB%. Still a good pitcher.
Joe Ross has a high BABIP with a lot of hard contact and no popups. That may be legitimate at this point, but still should be tough to maintain as will be his 20.6 HR/FB. He’s probably not allowing enough hard contact to keep both this high.
Mike Leake is not this good. He has a .235 BABIP and 84.5 LOB%. His peripherals are still strong than they’ve ever been though.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.0 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 0.278 | 0.292 | 0.014 | 47.9% | 0.219 | 9.2% | 91.9% | 88.5 | 6.00% | 4.50% | 217 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 0.284 | 0.250 | -0.034 | 47.9% | 0.209 | 5.9% | 92.9% | 85.8 | 3.00% | 2.30% | 164 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 0.300 | 0.231 | -0.069 | 45.7% | 0.198 | 7.1% | 89.0% | 86.1 | 10.40% | 6.80% | 164 |
| Daniel Mengden | OAK | 0.286 | 0.308 | 0.022 | 37.5% | 0.25 | 16.7% | 95.5% | ||||
| David Price | BOS | 0.310 | 0.091 | -0.219 | 41.7% | 0.25 | 25.0% | 92.0% | ||||
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 0.305 | 0.263 | -0.042 | 32.1% | 0.23 | 13.8% | 86.7% | 87.3 | 8.00% | 6.00% | 213 |
| Edinson Volquez | FLA | 0.278 | 0.317 | 0.039 | 45.3% | 0.236 | 4.3% | 87.2% | 87.2 | 6.60% | 4.30% | 151 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.275 | 0.143 | -0.132 | 41.0% | 0.155 | 12.6% | 90.4% | 84.8 | 3.90% | 2.80% | 203 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 0.299 | 0.341 | 0.042 | 35.3% | 0.22 | 8.1% | 89.0% | 88.1 | 6.90% | 5.00% | 174 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 0.299 | 0.320 | 0.021 | 53.3% | 0.176 | 11.3% | 88.7% | 86.8 | 5.50% | 3.90% | 183 |
| Joe Biagini | TOR | 0.303 | 0.277 | -0.026 | 60.8% | 0.158 | 3.6% | 88.8% | 84 | 2.50% | 1.80% | 122 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 0.297 | 0.349 | 0.052 | 40.0% | 0.222 | 0.0% | 86.7% | 86.2 | 7.50% | 5.70% | 93 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 0.304 | 0.292 | -0.012 | 40.8% | 0.254 | 10.3% | 86.1% | 87.7 | 6.80% | 4.80% | 206 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.294 | 0.324 | 0.03 | 51.4% | 0.168 | 1.8% | 83.2% | 85.6 | 3.80% | 2.60% | 183 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 0.287 | 0.298 | 0.011 | 37.9% | 0.179 | 7.8% | 84.8% | 87.1 | 6.80% | 4.70% | 146 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 0.302 | 0.300 | -0.002 | 29.2% | 0.25 | 12.5% | 89.7% | 88.3 | 10.20% | 8.00% | 196 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 0.282 | 0.272 | -0.01 | 60.7% | 0.19 | 3.0% | 88.1% | 85.4 | 5.40% | 3.40% | 168 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 0.308 | 0.292 | -0.016 | 39.5% | 0.21 | 10.2% | 88.5% | 87.7 | 7.10% | 5.50% | 126 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 0.281 | 0.267 | -0.014 | 38.2% | 0.135 | 6.1% | 87.0% | 88.7 | 9.30% | 6.20% | 172 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 0.273 | 0.294 | 0.021 | 39.4% | 0.192 | 8.1% | 91.4% | 87.2 | 7.10% | 5.50% | 212 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 0.288 | 0.235 | -0.053 | 53.2% | 0.192 | 1.8% | 89.7% | 87.3 | 4.90% | 3.80% | 206 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 0.281 | 0.286 | 0.005 | 51.5% | 0.188 | 11.7% | 87.9% | 85.1 | 5.80% | 4.40% | 207 |
| Randall Delgado | ARI | 0.286 | 0.284 | -0.002 | 48.6% | 0.171 | 8.3% | 85.1% | 86.6 | 9.30% | 6.80% | 107 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 0.289 | 0.296 | 0.007 | 34.6% | 0.115 | 10.7% | 81.9% | 82.7 | 8.80% | 5.30% | 57 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 0.322 | 0.329 | 0.007 | 55.8% | 0.198 | 11.9% | 88.1% | 86.2 | 4.50% | 3.40% | 176 |
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 0.284 | 0.228 | -0.056 | 44.8% | 0.207 | 5.0% | 95.1% | 84.8 | 4.90% | 4.00% | 61 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 0.275 | 0.300 | 0.025 | 43.5% | 0.274 | 8.2% | 87.0% | 83.5 | 5.10% | 3.60% | 177 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 0.294 | 0.273 | -0.021 | 57.3% | 0.225 | 2.8% | 90.3% | 85.5 | 5.00% | 3.40% | 181 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | 0.306 | 0.368 | 0.062 | 45.6% | 0.208 | 8.0% | 90.2% | 86.7 | 6.60% | 4.50% | 151 |
| Ben Lively | PHI | 0.298 |
h2=. Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Randall Delgado has the potential to be a quality arm or at least something around league average in an above average spot at a very low cost. That’s how you create value even if he’s not nearly as strong as many of the arms below him overall. It’s the cost that stands out to us today.
Value Tier Two
Jon Lester (1) did not have a great month of May via run prevention, but his strikeout rate soared to 28.8% with a 13.3 SwStr%. The Cardinals have hit for absolutely no power against LHP.
Carlos Carrasco (2) is one of several $10K pitchers and quality choices on today’s board. His last start was a bounce back of sorts from some previous issues, but his strikeout rate, while not exceptional, has been consistent throughout the season and he’s in a fine spot tonight in Kansas City.
Lance McCullers (3t) lost a few strikeouts in May, but still remained above average and makes up for it with elite contact management skills. That may be just as important in a dangerous park tonight. Weak ground balls don’t leave the yard no matter where you’re playing.
Johnny Cueto (3t) hasn’t always had the results he’s wanted this season because the contact management hasn’t been as strong. He’s somewhat made up for that with an increased strikeout rate in May. The Philadelphia offense would appear enough to offset a significant park downgrade, though it’s more power friendly than overall run friendly.
Value Tier Three
Joe Biagini is stretched out a bit now and his overall work as a starter has been strong even if a bit inconsistent. Not that we like going up against the Yankees, but he may be worth a nearly min-priced SP2 complement on DraftKings. It’s a bit more difficult for $6.5K where you need that quality start.
Scott Feldman is a pure matchup play at a reasonable cost. He hasn’t been terrible, the Braves have been. There’s little to no separation between the third and fourth tiers today.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Mike Leake is certainly not a true talent 2.24 ERA pitcher and that’s a shame it’s increased his cost to above $8.4K because he has become daily fantasy useful here and is probably in a better spot than a lot of people want to admit against the Cubs here, unless there’s a strong wind blowing out.
Joe Ross has had some issues with contact this year, but upgrades the park and isn’t in a bad spot in Oakland, while the peripherals are still strong. Even if we still expect him to be torched by LHBs, he should improve against RHBs, of which he could see enough to put forth an effort that fits or even exceeds his cost today.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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