Advanced Stats - Pitching: Saturday, May 13th
Just nine games on the night slate (all pitchers are listed) and although we only have a few usable arms tonight and not a single $10K pitcher on the slate, there appears to be a clear hierarchy tonight with another Coors pitcher right in the middle of it.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 0.2 | 3.79 | 5.75 | 51.8% | 1.39 | 3.52 | 1.22 | COL | 79 | 94 | 92 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 3.3 | 4.75 | 4.81 | 37.5% | 1.13 | 4.42 | 4.55 | BOS | 91 | 92 | 164 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | -10.9 | 3.65 | 6.2 | 55.6% | 0.98 | 3.56 | 3.33 | CHC | 96 | 86 | 59 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 4.2 | 2.83 | 7.06 | 41.4% | 1.13 | 3.06 | 2.54 | TAM | 90 | 96 | 104 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | -4.9 | 4.59 | 5.68 | 43.1% | 1.06 | 4.73 | 5.25 | KAN | 70 | 75 | 76 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 5.1 | 4.19 | 5.04 | 40.6% | 0.91 | 4.01 | 4.34 | ANA | 108 | 95 | 81 |
| Dillon Overton | SEA | 6.7 | 5.21 | 4.03 | 29.2% | 1.03 | 5.73 | 4.78 | TOR | 81 | 94 | 84 |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | -5.3 | 5.73 | 5. | 45.3% | 0.98 | 5.68 | 5.41 | SDG | 80 | 85 | 92 |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | 3.9 | 4.6 | 5.66 | 48.2% | 0.94 | 4.41 | 7.15 | ATL | 93 | 92 | 68 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 3.7 | 3.41 | 6.36 | 49.4% | 0.98 | 3.64 | 3.98 | STL | 96 | 74 | 94 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 9.5 | 5.36 | 4.15 | 38.0% | 1.09 | 5.87 | CLE | 106 | 106 | 83 | |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 4.7 | 4.16 | 6.21 | 38.9% | 0.94 | 4.51 | 5.34 | MIA | 88 | 87 | 121 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla | CIN | 19.9 | 4.05 | 16.7% | 0.93 | SFO | 68 | 68 | 61 | |||
| Luis Severino | NYY | 3.1 | 3.69 | 5.33 | 48.0% | 1.01 | 3.35 | 3.69 | HOU | 117 | 124 | 110 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | -2.4 | 3.63 | 6.42 | 60.0% | 1.03 | 3.49 | 4.34 | SEA | 98 | 119 | 131 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 1.6 | 4.47 | 5.77 | 38.7% | 0.93 | 4.28 | 5.78 | CIN | 104 | 101 | 98 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | -9.2 | 4.82 | 4.2 | 37.8% | 1.09 | 5.12 | 5.49 | MIN | 103 | 113 | 90 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | -2.8 | 4.17 | 5.67 | 41.3% | 1.01 | 4.75 | 4.45 | NYY | 138 | 127 | 99 |
| Nathan Karns | KAN | 5.6 | 3.94 | 5.48 | 42.2% | 1.06 | 4.11 | 2.51 | BAL | 102 | 100 | 126 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | -0.6 | 5.12 | 5.5 | 43.1% | 1.11 | 4.76 | 4.68 | OAK | 84 | 100 | 109 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 11.2 | 3.38 | 5. | 34.3% | 1.01 | 4.28 | 3.38 | WAS | 127 | 115 | 94 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | -7.6 | 4.18 | 5.89 | 42.3% | 0.91 | 4.34 | 2.58 | DET | 98 | 106 | 81 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | -3.6 | 3.85 | 5.48 | 56.1% | 1.02 | 4.25 | 4.91 | MIL | 101 | 98 | 110 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | -6.5 | 4.05 | 5.96 | 53.9% | 1.11 | 4.24 | 4.61 | TEX | 95 | 101 | 94 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | -7.6 | 3.81 | 5.75 | 0.416 | 1.13 | 3.92 | 5.13 | PIT | 69 | 78 | 35 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | -5.8 | 4.23 | 6.04 | 0.48 | 1.01 | 4.09 | 3.74 | PHI | 85 | 96 | 138 |
| Trevor Cahill | SDG | -8.2 | 3.43 | 5.73 | 0.593 | 0.98 | 3.5 | 3.34 | CHW | 94 | 72 | 73 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | -5.5 | 4.64 | 3.5 | 0.389 | 1.13 | 4.97 | 6.66 | ARI | 117 | 103 | 87 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 2.4 | 3.91 | 5.78 | 0.482 | 1.39 | 3.54 | 3.68 | LOS | 92 | 87 | 148 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | -5.1 | 4.19 | 5.66 | 0.465 | 1.02 | 3.9 | 4.48 | NYM | 121 | 94 | 98 |
Note: Seattle did not name a starter until this morning. I speculated on the name I saw most often mentioned on Twitter and I was wrong. It may not even matter because at the current pace, this may not be published until after early first pitch. It’s even more aggravating when we get the handedness of the pitcher wrong because that nullifies opponent stats as well.
Note II: The HOU/NYY game has been postponed.
Alex Wood has only exceeded five innings once, but has struck out 19 of his last 42 batters. That will play for five innings. His ground ball rate hasn’t dipped below 53% in any of his last four starts and sits at 62.2% on the season with just a 23% hard hit rate (1.6% Barrels/PA). The Rockies have actually improved against LHP this year (19.2 HR/FB), but still retain a 24.7 K% against them and have been poor at home this year.
Daniel Norris can miss bats at something of a league average rate and he’s pitching in the most negative run environment on the board against an offense with a 6.3 HR/FB vs LHP. That’s it for the good news. He has an 11.3 BB% to go along with a 43.4 Hard% and the Angels have just a 17.6 K% vs LHP.
Nathan Karns struck out 10 Rays in his last start and has gone six innings in four of his last five starts with a season high of one out above that in his most recent one. His 12.1 SwStr% is second best on the night slate. Walks and HRs have always been the issue with him and those are a bad combination for any pitcher, often rendering them unusable with all but the most elite strikeout rates. That’s why the move to Kansas City should be a favorable one for him, at least in one regard. All six of his HRs have been allowed in his four road starts. Kansas City is power suppressing, but run friendly, so this is not a great spot for him, but the park should help mitigate some of the Baltimore power because he’s still allowing Barrels on about one of every 10 batted balls.
Tanner Roark is a strong contact manager, who has actually been missing bats more consistently this year, if not at a higher rate than last year when most of his strikeouts came in just a few starts. His strikeout rate has been below 8% in just one start this season, though a few unearned runs have his ERA below his estimators. The Phillies haven’t been bad this season, but do strike out a bit.
Taijuan Walker is coming off a one strikeout performance in Coors and ideally, we’d find him in a few pitcher’s parks in that division, the Pirates at home might be good enough today. The game to game performances have been more erratic than we’d like (he’s only gone six innings twice, but went eight innings in one of those starts – he has at least six strikeouts in five starts, but a total of three in the two others), but the overall performance has been fine, considering the tough spots he’s often found himself in in that park. While the Pirates don’t normally strike out a ton, they do have a 23.0 K-BB% over the last week and were nearly no-hit in the opener of this series.
Trevor Cahill has the top SwStr% on the slate and is one of two pitchers exceeding a 30 K%, but the only one supported by his SwStr rate. Sure, he has some walk problems (11%) and has only gone more than six innings once, but has pitched into the sixth inning in every start, failing to strike out at least seven just once and even then only by one. While he’s allowing a lot of hard contact (36.9%), a 57.1 GB% has meant few actual Barrels and he’s also a top 10 generator of weak contact as well (25%). The White Sox are one of the worst offenses in baseball against RHP (17.8% K-BB%, 26.1 Hard%).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.288 BABIP – 73.4 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
No qualifiers today.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Tyler Anderson dominated Arizona at home in his last start (6 IP – 1 ER – 10 K – 75 GB% – 7.7 Hard%), but still has just a 40 GB% with a 32.5 Hard% and has struck out five or fewer in five of his seven starts. While it’s great to see that it’s still in there somewhere, we’ll need to see more, as he’s allowed Barrels on 9.6% of BBEs this year. The Dodgers are still below average vs LHP, but have been one of the hottest offenses in baseball over the last week and get a massive park boost. This was also the paragraph that was used before he was scratched with knee inflammation on Thursday, adding further concerns.
Ricky Nolasco has an 18.2 K-BB%. In over 1700 career innings, his ERA has run about 65 points above his estimators because he’s had a perennially high line drive rate and failed to strand runners. These things normally aren’t a skill, but he’s probably the one pitcher with this large a workload that’s proven an ineptness at these things over the last decade. This year, through 40 innings, he’s allowed 11 HRs already (hence the high FIP), but has stranded 89.6% of runners (the low SIERA). His 10.2 SwStr% is only a bit above his career 9.5% rate. The Tigers, now at full strength with J.D. Martinez back, are the type of team that may punish this reverse platoon righty (43.2 Hard% vs RHP).
Edinson Volquez has an impressive 24.5 K%, but still just a 7.5 K-BB%. Seventeen of the 23 batters he faced in his last start either walked or struck out. He has a 23 BB% over his last four starts.
Chris Tillman threw five shutout innings in his first start of the season, walking three of 22 White Sox, while striking out four. He faces a similarly talented offense against RHP today, which gives him one of the top matchups on the board, but that ridiculous price tag.
Nick Pivetta has struck out 11 of 48 major league batters with just one walk, but has also allowed hard contact on over half of batted balls (45.7 Hard-Soft%) with a 91.2 mph aEV and four HRs. He gets a rematch with a Washington lineup that homered three times against him in his last start.
Robert Gsellman has his ground ball rate up to 58.2% and at least 60% in four of his last five starts, but his SwStr% and velocity have fallen off a cliff, which may be the cause of a diminished spin rate. There is some speculation in the linked article about an injury, to which I say…well, he is a Mets pitcher, right?
Julio Teheran has just a 5.6 K-BB%. He is not going to like that new park and probably should have been traded when he had some value.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 21.1% | 7.5% | Road | 25.6% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 45.2% | 4.8% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 22.5% | 12.9% | Road | 20.4% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 19.7% | 9.9% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 23.4% | 8.3% | Home | 21.4% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 5.9% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 30.2% | 4.8% | Home | 29.6% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 38.2% | 9.1% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | L2 Years | 18.0% | 8.6% | Road | 17.1% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 13.6% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | L2 Years | 20.8% | 7.7% | Road | 21.8% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 12.0% |
| Dillon Overton | Mariners | L2 Years | 12.9% | 5.1% | Road | 12.2% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 9.5% | 2.4% |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | L2 Years | 9.2% | 9.2% | Home | 22.2% | 16.7% | L14 Days | 9.3% | 5.6% |
| Edinson Volquez | Marlins | L2 Years | 17.6% | 9.3% | Home | 19.1% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 39.1% | 34.8% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.0% | 6.4% | Road | 23.5% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 14.0% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 17.4% | 12.5% | Road | 17.1% | 13.3% | L14 Days | ||
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 20.8% | 7.3% | Road | 19.6% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 15.1% | 9.4% |
| Lisalverto Bonilla | Reds | L2 Years | 27.3% | 13.6% | Road | L14 Days | ||||
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 23.2% | 7.5% | Home | 24.8% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 5.7% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 18.8% | 6.3% | Home | 17.9% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 10.1% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 19.9% | 8.5% | Home | 22.3% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 17.8% | 13.3% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 21.7% | 13.0% | Home | 20.7% | 15.7% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 19.1% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 20.1% | 7.1% | Road | 16.5% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 10.4% |
| Nathan Karns | Royals | L2 Years | 23.9% | 9.2% | Home | 22.1% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 34.7% | 6.1% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | L2 Years | 13.4% | 8.9% | Home | 13.0% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 5.2% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Years | 22.9% | 2.1% | Road | 21.7% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 2.1% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Angels | L2 Years | 19.1% | 5.4% | Home | 17.8% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 4.2% |
| Robert Gsellman | Mets | L2 Years | 19.8% | 7.5% | Road | 18.5% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 4.4% | 2.2% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | L2 Years | 18.7% | 7.4% | Road | 18.3% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 12.8% | 6.4% |
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 22.0% | 5.7% | Home | 22.9% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 14.9% | 10.6% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 19.1% | 7.7% | Home | 21.5% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 27.7% | 10.6% |
| Trevor Cahill | Padres | L2 Years | 26.0% | 11.1% | Road | 25.3% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 32.6% | 11.6% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Years | 17.4% | 9.9% | Road | 15.5% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 9.4% | 15.6% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Years | 20.8% | 6.3% | Home | 21.9% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 8.2% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.4% | 7.0% | Home | 20.9% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 10.9% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockies | Home | 21.2% | 7.0% | LH | 24.7% | 6.5% | L7Days | 23.6% | 7.3% |
| Red Sox | Home | 16.3% | 8.3% | LH | 14.2% | 11.1% | L7Days | 17.2% | 13.8% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.1% | 10.2% | RH | 22.3% | 8.8% | L7Days | 24.1% | 11.7% |
| Rays | Road | 28.3% | 11.1% | LH | 27.0% | 12.2% | L7Days | 27.8% | 7.4% |
| Royals | Home | 19.9% | 7.6% | RH | 21.5% | 7.2% | L7Days | 22.9% | 8.3% |
| Angels | Home | 18.1% | 7.4% | LH | 17.6% | 9.6% | L7Days | 20.5% | 7.0% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 22.4% | 7.5% | LH | 23.3% | 9.7% | L7Days | 19.1% | 7.2% |
| Padres | Road | 24.6% | 6.4% | RH | 24.5% | 7.1% | L7Days | 18.2% | 6.8% |
| Braves | Road | 20.7% | 7.8% | RH | 20.1% | 9.0% | L7Days | 22.5% | 11.8% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.4% | 11.2% | LH | 21.2% | 8.6% | L7Days | 18.2% | 9.3% |
| Indians | Home | 21.9% | 10.8% | RH | 21.7% | 9.5% | L7Days | 17.9% | 9.8% |
| Marlins | Home | 21.0% | 8.1% | RH | 20.1% | 6.5% | L7Days | 16.5% | 7.4% |
| Giants | Home | 18.8% | 6.5% | RH | 19.8% | 6.8% | L7Days | 18.5% | 6.9% |
| Astros | Road | 19.7% | 9.0% | RH | 18.5% | 7.8% | L7Days | 18.7% | 8.2% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.4% | 8.8% | RH | 20.5% | 9.4% | L7Days | 16.6% | 9.7% |
| Reds | Road | 17.6% | 8.6% | LH | 17.8% | 7.3% | L7Days | 18.3% | 7.4% |
| Twins | Road | 19.7% | 9.8% | RH | 21.6% | 11.1% | L7Days | 23.4% | 7.6% |
| Yankees | Home | 23.3% | 11.2% | RH | 21.7% | 10.2% | L7Days | 24.1% | 10.2% |
| Orioles | Road | 25.5% | 6.4% | RH | 21.3% | 6.8% | L7Days | 21.0% | 6.7% |
| Athletics | Road | 23.4% | 8.9% | RH | 24.2% | 9.6% | L7Days | 22.3% | 8.6% |
| Nationals | Home | 20.0% | 10.1% | RH | 20.2% | 10.2% | L7Days | 23.4% | 9.8% |
| Tigers | Road | 23.8% | 10.2% | RH | 22.3% | 10.3% | L7Days | 25.1% | 10.1% |
| Brewers | Home | 26.1% | 9.1% | RH | 24.6% | 8.2% | L7Days | 22.6% | 7.2% |
| Rangers | Home | 23.1% | 9.2% | RH | 23.0% | 9.3% | L7Days | 23.3% | 10.3% |
| Pirates | Road | 20.2% | 8.6% | RH | 19.0% | 8.3% | L7Days | 28.9% | 5.9% |
| Phillies | Road | 25.4% | 8.1% | RH | 22.9% | 8.8% | L7Days | 14.0% | 12.8% |
| White Sox | Home | 22.2% | 8.4% | RH | 23.8% | 6.0% | L7Days | 19.4% | 7.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.4% | 8.3% | RH | 24.2% | 8.7% | L7Days | 24.7% | 8.2% |
| Dodgers | Road | 22.0% | 10.5% | LH | 21.0% | 10.2% | L7Days | 20.6% | 10.7% |
| Mets | Road | 18.9% | 9.8% | RH | 19.2% | 9.5% | L7Days | 17.7% | 9.1% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 27.2% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 2017 | 23.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | Road | 29.2% | 10.5% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 0.0% | 4.7% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 32.1% | 7.6% | 11.0% | 2017 | 33.6% | 11.9% | 15.0% | Road | 30.5% | 5.8% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 36.0% | 11.8% | 18.0% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 29.2% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 2017 | 31.9% | 18.8% | 11.5% | Home | 27.1% | 14.6% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 22.2% | 24.3% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.6% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 2017 | 32.4% | 4.8% | 16.7% | Home | 33.7% | 18.2% | 17.4% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 7.7% | 21.4% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | L2 Years | 29.6% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 2017 | 13.3% | 0.0% | -20.0% | Road | 28.3% | 9.2% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 0.0% | -20.0% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | L2 Years | 33.6% | 11.2% | 18.7% | 2017 | 43.4% | 5.7% | 30.2% | Road | 35.9% | 5.9% | 24.9% | L14 Days | 46.9% | 9.1% | 40.6% |
| Dillon Overton | Mariners | L2 Years | 35.2% | 20.0% | 24.2% | 2017 | 23.8% | 11.8% | 11.9% | Road | 38.7% | 25.0% | 28.0% | L14 Days | 27.0% | 13.3% | 13.5% |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | L2 Years | 37.5% | 21.2% | 17.7% | 2017 | 37.5% | 21.2% | 17.7% | Home | 40.0% | 0.0% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 43.5% | 23.5% | 30.5% |
| Edinson Volquez | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.8% | 11.3% | 13.8% | 2017 | 41.8% | 15.4% | 26.6% | Home | 31.1% | 10.5% | 13.7% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 27.7% | 11.1% | 7.6% | 2017 | 26.3% | 11.1% | 7.7% | Road | 26.4% | 14.3% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 20.7% | 14.3% | -6.9% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 33.3% | 16.2% | 15.1% | 2017 | Road | 31.1% | 15.9% | 10.3% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 32.0% | 10.3% | 14.0% | 2017 | 30.2% | 9.3% | 7.2% | Road | 31.0% | 7.9% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 45.0% | 16.7% | 17.5% |
| Lisalverto Bonilla | Reds | L2 Years | 41.7% | 16.7% | 25.0% | 2017 | 41.7% | 16.7% | 25.0% | Road | L14 Days | ||||||
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 28.3% | 17.9% | 5.7% | 2017 | 29.4% | 21.9% | 9.8% | Home | 29.7% | 25.0% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 39.5% | 23.1% | 26.3% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.8% | 15.7% | 11.6% | 2017 | 31.4% | 12.9% | 10.7% | Home | 32.2% | 12.3% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 21.4% | 6.1% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 32.7% | 11.1% | 16.1% | 2017 | 43.3% | 13.7% | 29.1% | Home | 33.3% | 10.1% | 17.2% | L14 Days | 53.3% | 6.3% | 36.6% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 31.3% | 12.1% | 13.2% | 2017 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 16.6% | Home | 32.5% | 6.9% | 16.9% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 16.6% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 33.3% | 15.1% | 14.9% | 2017 | 35.8% | 41.2% | 20.0% | Road | 35.0% | 21.1% | 18.8% | L14 Days | 45.5% | 46.2% | 39.4% |
| Nathan Karns | Royals | L2 Years | 31.9% | 12.7% | 11.5% | 2017 | 29.6% | 19.4% | 4.1% | Home | 22.4% | 8.6% | 1.8% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | L2 Years | 29.9% | 16.4% | 13.0% | 2017 | 23.8% | 21.9% | -3.6% | Home | 31.5% | 25.0% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 27.4% | 29.2% | -1.6% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Years | 51.4% | 30.8% | 45.7% | 2017 | 51.4% | 30.8% | 45.7% | Road | 52.9% | 12.5% | 47.0% | L14 Days | 51.4% | 30.8% | 45.7% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Angels | L2 Years | 33.6% | 12.9% | 19.2% | 2017 | 35.8% | 19.6% | 21.6% | Home | 29.9% | 10.4% | 13.8% | L14 Days | 43.3% | 26.7% | 43.3% |
| Robert Gsellman | Mets | L2 Years | 29.8% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 2017 | 31.5% | 20.8% | 13.5% | Road | 31.2% | 11.5% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 35.0% | 25.0% | 17.5% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | L2 Years | 29.9% | 14.7% | 13.4% | 2017 | 26.3% | 25.0% | 15.8% | Road | 34.7% | 23.1% | 21.0% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 25.0% | 15.8% |
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 28.9% | 14.4% | 10.1% | 2017 | 31.4% | 9.3% | 15.3% | Home | 29.9% | 16.4% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 8.3% | 2.9% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 25.3% | 11.9% | 3.0% | 2017 | 26.5% | 10.8% | 8.3% | Home | 26.1% | 7.5% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 27.6% | 20.0% | 10.4% |
| Trevor Cahill | Padres | L2 Years | 32.0% | 15.5% | 8.5% | 2017 | 36.9% | 9.1% | 11.9% | Road | 41.0% | 17.2% | 20.9% | L14 Days | 34.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Years | 28.1% | 22.2% | 5.2% | 2017 | 25.5% | 17.4% | -2.0% | Road | 27.8% | 36.8% | 1.9% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 30.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Years | 29.3% | 15.7% | 5.2% | 2017 | 32.5% | 24.3% | 8.8% | Home | 28.6% | 12.5% | 2.9% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 37.5% | 9.4% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 33.9% | 12.5% | 13.6% | 2017 | 36.2% | 14.3% | 13.8% | Home | 35.6% | 13.1% | 17.9% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 27.3% | 10.0% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockies | Home | 31.2% | 16.1% | 11.1% | LH | 33.7% | 19.2% | 14.7% | L7Days | 31.5% | 11.1% | 9.6% |
| Red Sox | Home | 38.3% | 7.5% | 19.6% | LH | 35.1% | 4.3% | 11.9% | L7Days | 43.0% | 18.0% | 26.2% |
| Cubs | Road | 29.9% | 13.0% | 10.9% | RH | 28.5% | 10.7% | 11.8% | L7Days | 27.1% | 12.5% | 8.3% |
| Rays | Road | 33.6% | 13.7% | 11.5% | LH | 33.1% | 11.0% | 9.1% | L7Days | 36.6% | 13.0% | 18.6% |
| Royals | Home | 30.7% | 7.8% | 9.7% | RH | 31.7% | 10.9% | 11.3% | L7Days | 36.3% | 7.4% | 21.8% |
| Angels | Home | 26.5% | 12.7% | 6.8% | LH | 27.2% | 6.3% | 13.4% | L7Days | 30.4% | 14.8% | 10.3% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 27.6% | 10.3% | 6.5% | LH | 31.0% | 10.9% | 13.6% | L7Days | 23.3% | 15.1% | 0.6% |
| Padres | Road | 30.5% | 16.0% | 9.8% | RH | 28.4% | 16.8% | 6.3% | L7Days | 24.9% | 15.5% | 0.7% |
| Braves | Road | 30.3% | 13.5% | 11.2% | RH | 30.6% | 11.5% | 12.1% | L7Days | 26.5% | 12.5% | 8.3% |
| Cardinals | Home | 26.8% | 11.3% | 5.7% | LH | 31.8% | 4.8% | 17.9% | L7Days | 31.2% | 8.1% | 11.0% |
| Indians | Home | 30.9% | 14.0% | 15.0% | RH | 34.4% | 11.8% | 17.3% | L7Days | 31.5% | 6.1% | 10.7% |
| Marlins | Home | 31.1% | 16.0% | 11.1% | RH | 29.8% | 13.6% | 10.1% | L7Days | 36.3% | 26.0% | 22.8% |
| Giants | Home | 22.7% | 6.5% | 0.6% | RH | 27.7% | 8.2% | 6.9% | L7Days | 26.6% | 11.0% | 5.4% |
| Astros | Road | 31.4% | 10.8% | 13.0% | RH | 31.4% | 13.3% | 12.6% | L7Days | 28.3% | 10.6% | 11.9% |
| Mariners | Road | 29.0% | 10.9% | 11.6% | RH | 30.7% | 12.0% | 13.4% | L7Days | 27.2% | 9.7% | 7.2% |
| Reds | Road | 29.2% | 11.7% | 6.1% | LH | 28.8% | 17.8% | 5.3% | L7Days | 25.1% | 10.2% | 5.3% |
| Twins | Road | 33.6% | 12.9% | 18.0% | RH | 34.5% | 15.0% | 18.5% | L7Days | 31.2% | 13.0% | 12.0% |
| Yankees | Home | 30.0% | 21.9% | 7.9% | RH | 30.1% | 17.9% | 9.4% | L7Days | 30.3% | 17.9% | 8.6% |
| Orioles | Road | 35.6% | 14.0% | 16.9% | RH | 30.8% | 13.5% | 11.6% | L7Days | 32.9% | 11.7% | 13.5% |
| Athletics | Road | 37.2% | 9.6% | 18.0% | RH | 36.4% | 14.2% | 20.7% | L7Days | 45.7% | 16.9% | 36.4% |
| Nationals | Home | 33.3% | 16.1% | 17.1% | RH | 31.3% | 15.1% | 14.7% | L7Days | 29.2% | 17.3% | 4.4% |
| Tigers | Road | 36.1% | 12.5% | 19.1% | RH | 43.2% | 11.0% | 27.9% | L7Days | 41.5% | 9.8% | 28.6% |
| Brewers | Home | 38.3% | 20.5% | 17.9% | RH | 34.0% | 20.4% | 15.6% | L7Days | 34.0% | 17.9% | 13.1% |
| Rangers | Home | 33.5% | 16.6% | 14.6% | RH | 32.7% | 16.9% | 13.6% | L7Days | 27.6% | 18.4% | 4.3% |
| Pirates | Road | 29.9% | 9.7% | 9.7% | RH | 28.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | L7Days | 27.7% | 10.4% | 5.1% |
| Phillies | Road | 31.9% | 13.3% | 9.5% | RH | 30.0% | 12.9% | 8.2% | L7Days | 31.9% | 18.6% | 16.8% |
| White Sox | Home | 28.9% | 9.8% | 6.0% | RH | 26.1% | 11.8% | 5.4% | L7Days | 26.9% | 11.5% | 0.8% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 38.7% | 16.0% | 26.3% | RH | 35.8% | 15.7% | 20.7% | L7Days | 34.3% | 12.5% | 21.3% |
| Dodgers | Road | 32.1% | 9.7% | 15.2% | LH | 34.0% | 9.0% | 19.5% | L7Days | 37.0% | 12.5% | 21.2% |
| Mets | Road | 35.7% | 15.9% | 18.0% | RH | 31.9% | 11.4% | 12.4% | L7Days | 34.6% | 4.8% | 12.8% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.6 SwStr% – 2.14 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 31.2% | 11.3% | 2.76 | 34.4% | 11.7% | 2.94 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 17.7% | 8.8% | 2.01 | 17.7% | 9.3% | 1.90 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 27.5% | 11.2% | 2.46 | 28.0% | 10.5% | 2.67 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 37.6% | 16.5% | 2.28 | 39.7% | 18.0% | 2.21 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 18.2% | 8.6% | 2.12 | 18.2% | 8.6% | 2.12 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 18.0% | 9.5% | 1.89 | 20.3% | 10.3% | 1.97 |
| Dillon Overton | SEA | 12.0% | 10.6% | 1.13 | 8.7% | 8.4% | 1.04 |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | 9.2% | 5.3% | 1.74 | 9.2% | 5.3% | 1.74 |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | 24.1% | 9.4% | 2.56 | 21.8% | 9.2% | 2.37 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 22.9% | 10.6% | 2.16 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 1.80 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | ||||||
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 16.9% | 9.3% | 1.82 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.64 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla | CIN | 27.3% | 16.3% | 1.67 | 27.3% | 16.3% | 1.67 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 29.2% | 10.4% | 2.81 | 29.6% | 10.3% | 2.87 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 16.9% | 8.2% | 2.06 | 16.3% | 8.1% | 2.01 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 18.6% | 8.0% | 2.33 | 20.5% | 7.9% | 2.59 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 23.8% | 8.8% | 2.70 | 23.8% | 8.8% | 2.70 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 19.3% | 10.4% | 1.86 | 21.1% | 9.5% | 2.22 |
| Nathan Karns | KAN | 24.3% | 12.1% | 2.01 | 25.8% | 12.7% | 2.03 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 13.6% | 6.1% | 2.23 | 13.6% | 6.1% | 2.23 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 22.9% | 9.9% | 2.31 | 22.9% | 9.9% | 2.31 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 22.4% | 10.3% | 2.17 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 2.35 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 16.1% | 6.6% | 2.44 | 13.2% | 5.7% | 2.32 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 12.8% | 9.1% | 1.41 | 12.8% | 9.1% | 1.41 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 23.3% | 10.5% | 2.22 | 25.8% | 10.8% | 2.39 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 19.9% | 8.5% | 2.34 | 20.3% | 8.1% | 2.51 |
| Trevor Cahill | SDG | 30.1% | 13.9% | 2.17 | 30.8% | 13.9% | 2.22 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 16.9% | 8.2% | 2.06 | 11.1% | 4.6% | 2.41 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 21.1% | 12.0% | 1.76 | 20.4% | 11.3% | 1.81 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 19.4% | 7.2% | 2.69 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 3.09 |
Alex Wood may not have a SwStr% to support a strikeout rate above 30%, but we don’t expect him to stay there. He hasn’t had a SwStr rate below 8.6% in any outing (not just starts) though.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.14 ERA – 4.20 SIERA – 4.15 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 2.73 | 2.69 | -0.04 | 2.48 | -0.25 | 1.91 | -0.82 | 2.19 | -0.54 | 3 | 1.75 | -1.25 | 1.53 | -1.47 | 1.31 | -1.69 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 3.96 | 5.31 | 1.35 | 5.16 | 1.2 | 5.03 | 1.07 | 6.18 | 2.22 | 3.64 | 5.13 | 1.49 | 4.97 | 1.33 | 4.88 | 1.24 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 3.86 | 3.46 | -0.4 | 3.26 | -0.6 | 3.85 | -0.01 | 2.25 | -1.61 | 3.94 | 3.69 | -0.25 | 3.27 | -0.67 | 4.34 | 0.4 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 1.92 | 2.2 | 0.28 | 2.3 | 0.38 | 1.45 | -0.47 | 1.13 | -0.79 | 2.19 | 2.09 | -0.1 | 2.05 | -0.14 | 1.24 | -0.95 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 0 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.22 | 5.22 | 3.22 | 3.22 | 3.14 | 3.14 | 0 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.22 | 5.22 | 3.22 | 3.22 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 4.55 | 4.93 | 0.38 | 4.76 | 0.21 | 3.75 | -0.8 | 3.98 | -0.57 | 4.62 | 4.67 | 0.05 | 4.54 | -0.08 | 3.73 | -0.89 |
| Dillon Overton | SEA | 6.17 | 4.63 | -1.54 | 4.93 | -1.24 | 4.74 | -1.43 | 6.22 | 0.05 | 6.75 | 5.14 | -1.61 | 5.33 | -1.42 | 5.27 | -1.48 |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | 8.28 | 5.73 | -2.55 | 5.78 | -2.5 | 7.22 | -1.06 | 10.30 | 2.02 | 8.28 | 5.73 | -2.55 | 5.78 | -2.5 | 7.22 | -1.06 |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | 4.71 | 4.99 | 0.28 | 4.6 | -0.11 | 4.91 | 0.2 | 3.74 | -0.97 | 5.6 | 6.42 | 0.82 | 5.87 | 0.27 | 5.74 | 0.14 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 3.27 | 3.86 | 0.59 | 3.77 | 0.5 | 3.58 | 0.31 | 2.35 | -0.92 | 3.86 | 4.12 | 0.26 | 4.06 | 0.2 | 4.41 | 0.55 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | ||||||||||||||||
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 4.69 | 5.23 | 0.54 | 5.4 | 0.71 | 4.78 | 0.09 | 5.89 | 1.20 | 6.91 | 5.52 | -1.39 | 5.84 | -1.07 | 5.91 | -1 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla | CIN | 7.2 | 4.05 | -3.15 | 5.02 | -2.18 | 5.62 | -1.58 | 3.78 | -3.42 | 7.2 | 4.05 | -3.15 | 5.02 | -2.18 | 5.62 | -1.58 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 3.4 | 2.76 | -0.64 | 2.62 | -0.78 | 3.58 | 0.18 | 1.99 | -1.41 | 2.86 | 2.72 | -0.14 | 2.59 | -0.27 | 3.54 | 0.68 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 3.38 | 3.88 | 0.5 | 3.65 | 0.27 | 3.66 | 0.28 | 4.73 | 1.35 | 3.69 | 3.98 | 0.29 | 3.81 | 0.12 | 3.87 | 0.18 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 6.52 | 4.54 | -1.98 | 4.83 | -1.69 | 4.99 | -1.53 | 9.06 | 2.54 | 8.53 | 4.63 | -3.9 | 4.94 | -3.59 | 5.78 | -2.75 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 0 | 5.46 | 5.46 | 4.84 | 4.84 | 3.37 | 3.37 | 2.04 | 2.04 | 0 | 5.49 | 5.49 | 4.84 | 4.84 | 3.37 | 3.37 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 5.64 | 4.47 | -1.17 | 4.46 | -1.18 | 8.59 | 2.95 | 8.39 | 2.75 | 6.66 | 4.25 | -2.41 | 4.35 | -2.31 | 9.31 | 2.65 |
| Nathan Karns | KAN | 4.58 | 3.56 | -1.02 | 3.63 | -0.95 | 4.38 | -0.2 | 3.31 | -1.27 | 4.03 | 3.21 | -0.82 | 3.25 | -0.78 | 4.06 | 0.03 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 5.18 | 4.69 | -0.49 | 4.67 | -0.51 | 6.23 | 1.05 | 7.81 | 2.63 | 5.18 | 4.69 | -0.49 | 4.67 | -0.51 | 6.23 | 1.05 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 5.4 | 3.38 | -2.02 | 3.58 | -1.82 | 6.62 | 1.22 | 10.22 | 4.82 | 5.4 | 3.38 | -2.02 | 3.58 | -1.82 | 6.62 | 1.22 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 4.31 | 3.72 | -0.59 | 4.03 | -0.28 | 5.29 | 0.98 | 6.61 | 2.30 | 4.5 | 3.23 | -1.27 | 3.5 | -1 | 5.02 | 0.52 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 6.54 | 3.97 | -2.57 | 4.09 | -2.45 | 4.88 | -1.66 | 7.64 | 1.10 | 7.01 | 4.12 | -2.89 | 4.34 | -2.67 | 5.2 | -1.81 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 4.22 | 4.6 | 0.38 | 4.61 | 0.39 | 6.4 | 2.18 | 6.02 | 1.80 | 4.22 | 4.61 | 0.39 | 4.61 | 0.39 | 6.4 | 2.18 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 3.83 | 3.75 | -0.08 | 3.86 | 0.03 | 3.37 | -0.46 | 3.69 | -0.14 | 3.41 | 3.34 | -0.07 | 3.49 | 0.08 | 3.06 | -0.35 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 3.46 | 4.19 | 0.73 | 4.02 | 0.56 | 3.79 | 0.33 | 2.78 | -0.68 | 3.23 | 4.36 | 1.13 | 3.97 | 0.74 | 4.26 | 1.03 |
| Trevor Cahill | SDG | 3.06 | 3.33 | 0.27 | 3.09 | 0.03 | 2.8 | -0.26 | 2.11 | -0.95 | 3.03 | 3.2 | 0.17 | 2.9 | -0.13 | 2.38 | -0.65 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 7.98 | 4.94 | -3.04 | 5.63 | -2.35 | 6.57 | -1.41 | 7.28 | -0.70 | 8.44 | 6.23 | -2.21 | 6.95 | -1.49 | 7.8 | -0.64 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 6.69 | 4.06 | -2.63 | 3.92 | -2.77 | 5.44 | -1.25 | 5.85 | -0.84 | 5.96 | 3.94 | -2.02 | 3.78 | -2.18 | 5.71 | -0.25 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 5.6 | 4.56 | -1.04 | 4.63 | -0.97 | 4.86 | -0.74 | 6.32 | 0.72 | 3.81 | 4.18 | 0.37 | 4.22 | 0.41 | 4.87 | 1.06 |
Nathan Karns has a 19.4 HR/FB and while he’s upped his weak contact (4.1 Hard-Soft%), he’s still allowing sweet spots on 10% of BBEs. While that number should probably come down some, this is why we mostly prefer him at home or in larger parks.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.0 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 0.291 | 0.260 | -0.031 | 62.2% | 0.135 | 22.2% | 86.8% | 86.2 | 2.70% | 1.60% | 74 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 0.274 | 0.296 | 0.022 | 39.6% | 0.225 | 16.7% | 84.8% | 87.2 | 4.40% | 3.00% | 113 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.299 | 0.290 | -0.009 | 50.9% | 0.205 | 15.6% | 86.5% | 87.7 | 6.20% | 3.80% | 113 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 0.302 | 0.264 | -0.038 | 39.6% | 0.208 | 9.5% | 75.2% | 86.9 | 3.70% | 2.10% | 108 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 0.293 | 0.200 | -0.093 | 46.7% | 0.133 | 16.7% | 85.2% | 85 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 15 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 0.305 | 0.356 | 0.051 | 40.4% | 0.26 | 5.7% | 87.3% | 88.6 | 6.60% | 4.70% | 106 |
| Dillon Overton | SEA | 0.295 | 0.275 | -0.02 | 41.5% | 0.171 | 0.0% | 84.2% | 88.9 | 9.50% | 8.00% | 42 |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | 0.268 | 0.337 | 0.069 | 45.3% | 0.2 | 0.0% | 93.4% | 90.9 | 10.40% | 8.40% | 96 |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | 0.276 | 0.347 | 0.071 | 41.6% | 0.247 | 3.8% | 84.7% | 88.4 | 8.90% | 5.30% | 79 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.293 | 0.316 | 0.023 | 55.6% | 0.137 | 2.8% | 83.1% | 87.3 | 3.40% | 2.30% | 118 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 0.272 | ||||||||||
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.289 | 0.298 | 0.009 | 31.7% | 0.244 | 5.6% | 86.4% | 85.1 | 6.30% | 4.50% | 126 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla | CIN | 0.264 | 0.182 | -0.082 | 16.7% | 0.333 | 0.0% | 76.9% | 92.6 | 16.70% | 9.10% | 12 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 0.283 | 0.232 | -0.051 | 50.0% | 0.18 | 9.4% | 88.6% | 88.9 | 10.80% | 7.10% | 102 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 0.299 | 0.331 | 0.032 | 57.6% | 0.201 | 6.5% | 90.3% | 88.1 | 7.10% | 5.40% | 140 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 0.306 | 0.317 | 0.011 | 40.0% | 0.192 | 7.8% | 90.0% | 91.2 | 12.60% | 9.00% | 127 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 0.304 | 0.083 | -0.221 | 33.3% | 0.25 | 0.0% | 87.0% | 87.1 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 12 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 0.274 | 0.244 | -0.03 | 50.0% | 0.138 | 5.9% | 84.3% | 87.3 | 12.60% | 8.90% | 95 |
| Nathan Karns | KAN | 0.289 | 0.272 | -0.017 | 56.7% | 0.113 | 3.2% | 84.9% | 86.6 | 10.20% | 6.80% | 98 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 0.277 | 0.247 | -0.03 | 44.6% | 0.169 | 15.6% | 89.2% | 86 | 10.70% | 8.70% | 84 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 0.285 | 0.452 | 0.167 | 34.3% | 0.286 | 0.0% | 90.0% | 91.2 | 11.40% | 8.30% | 35 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 0.281 | 0.291 | 0.01 | 36.4% | 0.161 | 8.9% | 87.2% | 90 | 14.20% | 10.30% | 120 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 0.313 | 0.349 | 0.036 | 58.2% | 0.2 | 4.2% | 90.6% | 86.7 | 6.30% | 4.70% | 111 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 0.272 | 0.257 | -0.015 | 55.3% | 0.132 | 0.0% | 85.2% | 90.9 | 7.90% | 6.40% | 38 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 0.295 | 0.307 | 0.012 | 45.3% | 0.179 | 14.0% | 82.9% | 87.9 | 5.10% | 3.50% | 118 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.290 | 0.256 | -0.034 | 46.6% | 0.22 | 10.8% | 87.8% | 86 | 5.80% | 4.10% | 121 |
| Trevor Cahill | SDG | 0.286 | 0.280 | -0.006 | 57.1% | 0.167 | 13.6% | 86.2% | 86.4 | 4.80% | 2.70% | 84 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 0.308 | 0.319 | 0.011 | 33.3% | 0.216 | 17.4% | 86.5% | 86.8 | 5.90% | 4.20% | 51 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 0.282 | 0.324 | 0.042 | 40.0% | 0.264 | 13.5% | 82.1% | 84.3 | 9.60% | 6.80% | 114 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 0.319 | 0.364 | 0.045 | 41.2% | 0.219 | 9.5% | 91.1% | 86.4 | 7.80% | 5.50% | 116 |
Daniel Norris has a pretty terrible batted ball profile.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Trevor Cahill (1) is one of the most expensive pitchers on the board. We knew this was coming and may have to soon exercise some caution because there are some flaws in his walk and hard contact rates. Tonight is not the night for such caution though, as he’s in a great spot against White Sox on an overall weak board.
Alex Wood (2) hasn’t been going deep into games, but has still struck out 19 over his last 10 innings. Pitching in Coors is never an easy task or a favorable matchup, but it is more navigable this year, especially considering the usual cost reduction (below $7K).
Value Tier Two
Nathan Karns (3) is flawed and facing a team with power, but does so in a big park, which may be more important to him than it being a positive run environment overall. He’s probably you’re third best play for strikeouts tonight for less than $8K, hence the two pitchers ranked above him.
Value Tier Three
Taijuan Walker (4) is not the most consistent arm, but does have strong upside and should be in a favorable spot against a poor offense even in a very unfriendly park.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk. .
I’d probably not use any of these guys and consider them well below the top three tiers of arms, but decided to provide them anyway because I didn’t want to stop at just four pitchers tonight. You probably should though.
Tanner Roark usually comes at a cost beyond what we’re willing to pay for contact management for a guy with a near average ground ball rate. That’s probably the case today too, but if we’re extending past the four pitchers above, this is where I might look next. He may pop an above average strikeout rate against the Phillies tonight. Then again, they may never play baseball in Washington again, considering how quickly they’ve cancelled the last two nights.
Daniel Norris can miss a few bats and is not in a terrible run prevention spot. As mentioned, I’d probably avoid this entire tier, but there’s no way I’m paying $8.9K for him.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window