Advanced Stats - Pitching: Saturday, May 6th
To be honest, I wasn’t expecting a 12 game night slate on Saturday. That’s one of the larger ones you’ll see all year and because you probably don’t want to spend a large portion of your weekend reading about pitching, we’ll try to get through this one a little quicker. You’re an important person with important things to do.
We list every pitcher today and with work ups on the night slate. Three pitchers make their first start of the season, one during the day, while another makes his second major league start, but more importantly his debut in this article. If it’s studs you’re looking for, well, you may want to come back on Monday. There is one clear and obvious arm today, but he’s also an erratic one with the largest price differential between sites. After that, it gets a little uneasy.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the RotoGrinders weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | WAS | -8.9 | 3.99 | 4.76 | 31.8% | 0.96 | 5.38 | PHI | 108 | 95 | 102 | |
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 13.6 | 4.03 | 6. | 50.6% | 1.02 | 3.13 | 6.22 | SFO | 81 | 75 | 74 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | -3.4 | 4.45 | 4.93 | 37.7% | 0.91 | 4.25 | 4.22 | SDG | 72 | 83 | 74 |
| Brett Anderson | CHC | 2.2 | 3.77 | 5.44 | 63.8% | 0.96 | 4.91 | 6.29 | NYY | 103 | 125 | 166 |
| Chase De Jong | SEA | 5.5 | 6.84 | 2.2 | 31.0% | 0.89 | 6.61 | TEX | 83 | 99 | 97 | |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 1.3 | 3.96 | 5.89 | 63.1% | 0.91 | 3.66 | 4.86 | LOS | 80 | 81 | 123 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | -4.3 | 4.34 | 5.56 | 35.1% | 1.02 | 4.39 | 6.04 | CHW | 78 | 68 | 84 |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | 0.5 | 6.03 | 5.25 | 46.7% | 1.02 | 6.05 | 5.59 | BAL | 81 | 100 | 78 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | -7.2 | 3.69 | 6.09 | 45.7% | 0.97 | 4.04 | 2.44 | MIL | 106 | 92 | 70 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 7.7 | 4.09 | 5.66 | 36.5% | 0.96 | 4.37 | 2.63 | TOR | 97 | 81 | 119 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 7.6 | 3.68 | 5.15 | 40.0% | 1.06 | 3.75 | 5.46 | CLE | 91 | 77 | 77 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | -0.9 | 3.93 | 5.55 | 49.7% | 0.91 | 3.93 | 2.92 | HOU | 123 | 127 | 140 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | -6.5 | 4.49 | 5.92 | 50.3% | 0.93 | 4.38 | 3.25 | DET | 106 | 116 | 117 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 7.3 | 4.11 | 5.3 | 37.9% | 0.96 | 3.76 | 4.25 | CHC | 94 | 113 | 94 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 6.6 | 4.26 | 5.94 | 41.2% | 0.93 | 4.49 | 5.1 | OAK | 112 | 100 | 100 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | -10.8 | 4.03 | 5.95 | 43.3% | 1.06 | 3.95 | 3.08 | KAN | 79 | 77 | 92 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 5.1 | 4.15 | 6.21 | 38.7% | 1 | 4.14 | 5.52 | STL | 104 | 107 | 134 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | -2.4 | 3.47 | 5.76 | 51.4% | 0.91 | 3.81 | 3.14 | ANA | 113 | 90 | 107 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | -3.1 | 4.42 | 6.08 | 33.0% | 0.96 | 4.5 | 2.95 | TAM | 123 | 107 | 86 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | -1.6 | 4.92 | 5.83 | 53.7% | 0.89 | 5.01 | 6.59 | SEA | 134 | 83 | 127 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | -11.5 | 4.59 | 5.52 | 49.1% | 0.97 | 4.74 | 3.46 | PIT | 94 | 84 | 86 |
| Mike Leake | STL | -16.6 | 3.98 | 6.1 | 53.5% | 1 | 3.85 | 3.74 | ATL | 97 | 97 | 125 |
| Nick Tepesch | LOS | -3.4 | 4.53 | 4. | 25.0% | 0.91 | 4.56 | SDG | 72 | 83 | 74 | |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | MIA | 7 | 4.65 | 5.44 | 48.0% | 0.91 | 6.23 | NYM | 69 | 93 | 143 | |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | -8.1 | 4.06 | 5.48 | 0.509 | 1.39 | 4.15 | 3.32 | COL | 82 | 85 | 59 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0 | 3.72 | 6.44 | 0.441 | 1.04 | 3.84 | 3.14 | MIN | 109 | 118 | 151 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | -4.7 | 3.85 | 5.52 | 0.557 | 0.91 | 3.13 | 5.16 | MIA | 91 | 86 | 90 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 3.5 | 5.14 | 5.75 | 0.51 | 1.02 | 6.01 | 5.25 | CIN | 92 | 90 | 129 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | -1.3 | 4.04 | 5.77 | 0.475 | 1.39 | 3.77 | 5.22 | ARI | 68 | 84 | 85 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 13 | 3.76 | 5.42 | 0.355 | 0.96 | 3.51 | 5.07 | WAS | 123 | 118 | 138 |
Amir Garrett bounced back after a terrible start in Milwaukee…sort of. He did go seven innings, the third time he has pitched into the seventh in his last four starts, but struck out just four. In fact, he’s only struck out more than five once. Although he’s allowing too much hard contact (39.4%), he’s exceeded a 55% GB rate in three of four starts as well. He has a 4.03 SIERA and that may be what he is, even if he’s gotten there in an adventurous way. The thing we like tonight, is that he’s facing the Giants and that still seems so strange today. Yet, the Giants are striking out at a league average rate this year and have been just such an atrocious offense.
Clayton Richard is an elite ground ball generator (64%), who has failed to strike out more than three in four of his six starts. His 90.4 mph aEV is a bit above average, but his hard contact rate is around average, while he rarely allows Barrels because he keeps the ball on the ground. Five of the 19 fly balls he’s allowed have left the yard to go along with the .330 BABIP that should also improve, while his SwStr% might project for a few more strikeouts. The Dodgers have been pretty awful against LHP.
Gerrit Cole has struck out 23 of his last 73 batters. He’s throwing more change-ups this season, though I’m not sure that’s the reason because he threw them in his first three starts with fewer strikeouts too. The Brewers have a 20.5 HR/FB vs RHP, but also a 25 K% and have been without Ryan Braun.
JC Ramirez is a 28 year-old career reliever. After three relief appearances this year, he was suddenly a starter and was beat up by the lowly Royals, striking out only three of 21 batters, but with a 13.3 SwStr%. Since that point, he’s struck out 25 of 66 batters and has a 13.8 SwStr% through four starts. The walk rate is average and he allows hard contact at a higher than average rate (34.6%) too often in the air (32 GB%) as a starter, but his Barrel count is more than reasonable. He’s not in a good spot against a murderous Houston offense that no longer strikes out much this year, but his performance can’t be ignored.
Jordan Montgomery has a healthy strikeout rate through four starts, but an elite SwStr% which has been at least 11% in each start. The BABIP should not be nearly that high, which accounts for the ERA above four, but the Yankees can’t have everything. Every one of his non-fastball pitches is getting a whiff rate above 15% with his slider above 30%. He wasn’t supposed to have this much upside and he’ll probably come back to earth a bit after a trip through the league, but the Cubs have never seen him. They’ve hit LHP much better than RHP early on. Montgomery was ranked only 14th in the Yankee system by Fangraphs, who said he lacks a true swing and miss secondary and might need to use “a pallet of junk to navigate”. That doesn’t seem to be the case so far because they’re swinging and missing.
Lance McCullers has to be considered the elite potential on tonight’s slate. A couple of guys above can claim to hang with him in terms of SwStr% or K% through three or four starts, but he’s been doing it a bit longer and is the only one who came up through the system with this kind of hype. That’s not to say he’s been consistent, but he’s pitched into the seventh inning with at least eight strikeouts in half of his six starts. You would think the Angels might be an issue because they make contact, but they have a 21.2 K% vs RHP this year.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Patrick Corbin (.287 – 79% – 8.3) has discovered how to miss bats again and the Rockies have a 19.8 K-BB% vs LHP, but I’m not so sure I want to jump on this bandwagon at Coors. The cost is low enough that he makes for a reasonable SP2 on DraftKings though.
Mike Leake (.277 – 84.9% – 0) has allowed at least 20 HRs in every full season of his career. There are going to be some HRs. The 19.1 K% and 3.8 BB% are new and interesting, but while the K% is not yet out of line for his SwStr%, it’s close and he’s not generating more swings and misses.
Dylan Bundy (.257 – 86.7% – 4.3) does have a double digit SwStr% and has faced Boston three times with a total of eight strikeouts, but he’s also struck out just three Rays. In fact, the only team he’s had an above average SwStr% or K% against are the Blue Jays. He’s in a great spot, but a price tag above $8K seems to account for that considering the performance. His results are highly inspired by BABIP, LOB% and HR/FB. He has the talent (as we saw in March), but has to show more in season.
Jesse Hahn (.247 – 73.6% – 3.0) is an average pitcher at best, facing a tough offense at an average cost.
Julio Teheran (.284 – 69% – 6.8) is probably not going to like that new park. He’s allowed all three of his HRs there so far (in three starts). He has just a 5.9 K-BB%.
Ty Blach (.175 – 70.6% – 0)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
A.J. Cole was ranked 12th among Washington prospects with a 40 Future Value according to Fangraphs. Wait, he’s still a rookie? He somehow turned a 14.9 K-BB% in eight major league starts last year into an ERA with estimators above five because 54.9% of his contact was in the air. He struggles with LHBs, but didn’t generate a lot of hard contact last year. The issue this year is that he generated just a 16.3 K% with an 11.6 BB% in four AAA starts this year with 56.5% of his contact being pulled. When the majority of contact being allowed are pulled fly balls, that’s not a great thing for a pitcher.
Chase De Jong was an “other prospect of note” for Fangraphs this season. He averaged somewhere around 90 mph with a lot of off speed stuff that graded out marginally. He did have above average strikeout rates throughout the minors, but only has 24 innings above AA (including his first major league start) in which he’s walked 11 of 102 batters with 21 strikeouts. He’s generally been a fly ball pitcher. Texas has a 23.8 K% vs RHP, so there is potential for a few strikeouts at a low cost here, but not enough to fall in love with his stuff.
Update: Clayton Kershaw has been announced as the starter in place of Brandon McCarthy
Brandon McCarthy allowed more than two runs for the first time in his last start, finishing with four runs in five innings and just three strikeouts against the Phillies. His ERA is low due to an 81.2% strand rate, but his estimators are just okay. His strikeout rate is just above average, but his SwStr% just below it. The one area where he has excelled is contact management with a low hard hit rate, aEV, and Barrels rates. He hasn’t been bad and he even might be in the top spot on the board tonight in Petco. The Padres strike out a quarter of the time against RHP, about as often as they hit the ball hard on contact. This is all fine, though not especially desirable, if he costs around $8K, which he does, on FanDuel. His $9.4K price tag on DraftKings is just too high.
Vince Velasquez has struck out a total of nine batters over his last three starts. A 13% walk rate is not going to play well against Washington. His upside potential Is not worth it in this spot.
Robert Gsellman had a SwStr rate above 8% in each of his first two starts (though never above average), but has not exceeded 6% in any of his last three. Those first two starts were against Miami though.
Tyler Anderson has only shown small glimpses of the pitcher he had previously been.
Matt Garza has looked good in one of his two starts. It was the one where he gave up more runs actually, but he still has a lot to prove.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | Nationals | L2 Years | 24.1% | 7.2% | Road | 23.5% | 11.1% | L14 Days | ||
| Amir Garrett | Reds | L2 Years | 21.3% | 8.2% | Home | 30.2% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 10.4% | 14.6% |
| Brandon McCarthy | Dodgers | L2 Years | 24.0% | 12.2% | Road | 21.6% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 3.9% |
| Brett Anderson | Cubs | L2 Years | 14.9% | 7.2% | Home | 11.9% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 17.5% |
| Chase De Jong | Mariners | L2 Years | 8.1% | 13.5% | Home | L14 Days | 9.4% | 12.5% | ||
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 13.5% | 7.7% | Home | 16.9% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 11.4% | 9.1% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 20.6% | 8.3% | Home | 21.0% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 10.1% | 8.9% |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | L2 Years | 8.4% | 10.5% | Road | 5.2% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 10.4% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 21.9% | 5.8% | Home | 19.6% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 2.1% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 21.5% | 6.9% | Home | 22.2% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 5.6% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 22.1% | 4.6% | Home | 22.9% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 12.2% | 6.1% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 19.2% | 7.6% | Home | 21.4% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 35.6% | 8.9% |
| Jesse Hahn | Athletics | L2 Years | 15.5% | 7.8% | Home | 15.3% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 3.8% |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Years | 25.0% | 10.9% | Road | 20.8% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 13.0% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 17.8% | 5.4% | Road | 16.5% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 4.0% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Years | 17.7% | 2.9% | Road | 17.1% | 3.2% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 2.1% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 20.9% | 7.3% | Home | 22.6% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 13.0% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 27.5% | 9.7% | Road | 26.2% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 10.4% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 20.7% | 8.0% | Road | 22.2% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 1.9% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 12.8% | 8.9% | Road | 11.3% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 7.4% | 13.0% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 16.0% | 8.0% | Road | 13.2% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 23.9% | 6.5% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 15.9% | 4.8% | Road | 17.2% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 7.7% |
| Nick Tepesch | Dodgers | L2 Years | 15.8% | 0.0% | Road | 15.8% | 0.0% | L14 Days | ||
| Odrisamer Despaigne | Marlins | L2 Years | 12.7% | 7.0% | Road | 10.8% | 14.9% | L14 Days | ||
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 19.7% | 7.8% | Road | 18.0% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 7.4% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 21.1% | 4.2% | Road | 21.4% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 30.2% | 7.6% |
| Robert Gsellman | Mets | L2 Years | 20.6% | 8.0% | Home | 22.1% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 4.3% | 8.5% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 11.5% | 8.4% | Road | 10.0% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 8.2% | 6.1% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Years | 20.0% | 6.3% | Home | 20.6% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 8.3% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 26.3% | 9.0% | Home | 31.7% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 10.9% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | Home | 21.1% | 8.7% | RH | 24.1% | 7.9% | L7Days | 23.7% | 9.6% |
| Giants | Road | 21.1% | 7.6% | LH | 20.5% | 8.0% | L7Days | 24.7% | 7.0% |
| Padres | Home | 23.1% | 9.6% | RH | 25.9% | 7.6% | L7Days | 23.9% | 10.1% |
| Yankees | Road | 21.1% | 9.5% | LH | 21.7% | 12.5% | L7Days | 24.5% | 11.5% |
| Rangers | Road | 23.9% | 8.6% | RH | 23.3% | 8.8% | L7Days | 30.0% | 9.6% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.6% | 9.9% | LH | 20.8% | 9.8% | L7Days | 21.9% | 6.9% |
| White Sox | Road | 22.1% | 6.0% | RH | 24.7% | 6.0% | L7Days | 20.7% | 7.4% |
| Orioles | Home | 19.4% | 8.1% | RH | 20.6% | 7.2% | L7Days | 24.9% | 7.1% |
| Brewers | Road | 22.0% | 7.6% | RH | 25.0% | 8.2% | L7Days | 20.3% | 7.7% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 22.6% | 8.9% | RH | 22.7% | 7.5% | L7Days | 20.3% | 8.6% |
| Indians | Road | 19.3% | 9.8% | LH | 19.2% | 11.2% | L7Days | 20.6% | 9.6% |
| Astros | Road | 19.3% | 9.7% | RH | 18.5% | 8.0% | L7Days | 16.1% | 8.0% |
| Tigers | Road | 23.2% | 10.3% | RH | 21.8% | 10.8% | L7Days | 22.2% | 10.0% |
| Cubs | Home | 20.8% | 9.8% | LH | 22.5% | 13.4% | L7Days | 16.2% | 9.7% |
| Athletics | Home | 24.2% | 8.7% | RH | 24.6% | 9.6% | L7Days | 23.8% | 11.1% |
| Royals | Home | 19.0% | 7.1% | RH | 20.4% | 6.8% | L7Days | 17.0% | 6.1% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.4% | 7.6% | RH | 20.7% | 9.7% | L7Days | 22.9% | 11.7% |
| Angels | Home | 17.7% | 7.1% | RH | 21.2% | 7.1% | L7Days | 19.0% | 9.3% |
| Rays | Home | 23.3% | 10.1% | RH | 25.4% | 9.6% | L7Days | 25.8% | 15.6% |
| Mariners | Home | 19.2% | 10.7% | LH | 17.0% | 12.4% | L7Days | 23.3% | 10.4% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.8% | 10.2% | RH | 16.9% | 8.8% | L7Days | 17.8% | 11.7% |
| Braves | Home | 19.3% | 8.6% | RH | 19.8% | 8.3% | L7Days | 16.7% | 6.9% |
| Padres | Home | 23.1% | 9.6% | RH | 25.9% | 7.6% | L7Days | 23.9% | 10.1% |
| Mets | Home | 19.9% | 9.3% | RH | 19.7% | 9.6% | L7Days | 14.6% | 8.3% |
| Rockies | Home | 20.0% | 6.8% | LH | 25.4% | 5.6% | L7Days | 28.3% | 6.4% |
| Twins | Home | 21.7% | 12.1% | RH | 21.3% | 12.0% | L7Days | 22.6% | 10.1% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.5% | 6.3% | RH | 20.7% | 6.2% | L7Days | 20.9% | 8.1% |
| Reds | Home | 21.6% | 8.7% | LH | 22.3% | 7.3% | L7Days | 20.7% | 11.6% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 27.3% | 8.8% | LH | 22.4% | 8.0% | L7Days | 24.5% | 9.5% |
| Nationals | Road | 19.9% | 10.7% | RH | 19.5% | 10.4% | L7Days | 22.1% | 11.9% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | Nationals | L2 Years | 25.8% | 11.3% | 6.1% | 2017 | Road | 22.6% | 12.1% | 1.8% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Amir Garrett | Reds | L2 Years | 39.3% | 21.4% | 21.4% | 2017 | 39.3% | 21.4% | 21.4% | Home | 34.4% | 18.2% | 15.6% | L14 Days | 45.7% | 41.7% | 31.4% |
| Brandon McCarthy | Dodgers | L2 Years | 32.0% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 2017 | 26.8% | 11.1% | 3.6% | Road | 25.7% | 4.0% | 2.7% | L14 Days | 32.5% | 13.3% | 7.5% |
| Brett Anderson | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.9% | 19.8% | -0.2% | 2017 | 33.8% | 14.3% | 10.4% | Home | 40.3% | 29.4% | 19.4% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 25.0% | 3.4% |
| Chase De Jong | Mariners | L2 Years | 31.0% | 12.5% | 17.2% | 2017 | 31.0% | 12.5% | 17.2% | Home | L14 Days | 36.0% | 7.1% | 28.0% | |||
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 26.4% | 14.6% | 6.6% | 2017 | 29.1% | 26.3% | 13.7% | Home | 27.0% | 8.3% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 16.7% | 26.5% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 27.7% | 11.0% | 3.7% | 2017 | 27.0% | 4.3% | 1.8% | Home | 26.1% | 10.9% | 0.5% | L14 Days | 30.2% | 6.7% | 8.0% |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | L2 Years | 34.2% | 18.5% | 11.8% | 2017 | 34.2% | 18.5% | 11.8% | Road | 33.3% | 21.7% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 38.9% | 13.3% | 19.5% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 30.7% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 2017 | 31.8% | 15.4% | 9.4% | Home | 29.7% | 8.5% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 7.7% | -18.7% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 31.2% | 12.2% | 13.7% | 2017 | 31.4% | 19.0% | 21.6% | Home | 34.6% | 11.9% | 17.8% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 30.4% | 5.3% | 10.5% | 2017 | 25.8% | 3.1% | 7.8% | Home | 30.8% | 0.0% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 5.3% | 10.0% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 29.3% | 14.2% | 9.2% | 2017 | 33.8% | 11.1% | 9.9% | Home | 27.3% | 12.5% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 36.0% | 7.7% | 20.0% |
| Jesse Hahn | Athletics | L2 Years | 26.4% | 10.3% | 5.7% | 2017 | 25.8% | 3.0% | 3.2% | Home | 31.3% | 17.1% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 0.0% | 2.7% |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Years | 24.1% | 8.0% | 12.0% | 2017 | 24.1% | 8.0% | 12.0% | Road | 23.5% | 0.0% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 30.4% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 2017 | 43.8% | 11.1% | 27.1% | Road | 23.2% | 4.3% | 2.7% | L14 Days | 43.9% | 25.0% | 29.3% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Years | 34.1% | 17.0% | 19.1% | 2017 | 37.5% | 16.7% | 29.5% | Road | 35.6% | 16.2% | 17.2% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 16.7% | 28.9% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 31.9% | 10.4% | 14.0% | 2017 | 29.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | Home | 33.7% | 10.8% | 14.9% | L14 Days | 44.7% | 5.9% | 18.4% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 27.0% | 11.8% | 6.0% | 2017 | 23.3% | 25.0% | 0.0% | Road | 32.9% | 8.7% | 18.8% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 14.3% | 10.7% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 29.0% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 2017 | 25.7% | 6.5% | 11.8% | Road | 31.0% | 9.3% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% | -2.7% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 29.4% | 9.2% | 12.9% | 2017 | 37.7% | 9.7% | 24.5% | Road | 34.9% | 10.3% | 21.2% | L14 Days | 32.6% | 6.7% | 23.3% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 35.3% | 13.0% | 17.9% | 2017 | 50.0% | 22.2% | 43.7% | Road | 31.4% | 10.3% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 22.2% | 43.7% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 29.3% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 2017 | 22.8% | 0.0% | 4.0% | Road | 34.6% | 9.4% | 18.7% | L14 Days | 37.8% | 0.0% | 21.6% |
| Nick Tepesch | Dodgers | L2 Years | 31.3% | 14.3% | 18.8% | 2017 | Road | 31.3% | 14.3% | 18.8% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Odrisamer Despaigne | Marlins | L2 Years | 28.8% | 13.6% | 8.5% | 2017 | Road | 38.2% | 10.0% | 18.2% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 35.1% | 14.9% | 19.5% | 2017 | 27.9% | 8.3% | 12.6% | Road | 32.7% | 16.7% | 14.4% | L14 Days | 34.3% | 8.3% | 17.2% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 32.3% | 11.5% | 15.2% | 2017 | 39.5% | 15.2% | 20.2% | Road | 29.4% | 11.1% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 14.3% | 21.2% |
| Robert Gsellman | Mets | L2 Years | 28.9% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 2017 | 29.7% | 16.7% | 11.0% | Home | 27.2% | 5.0% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 14.3% | 7.5% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 30.8% | 3.0% | 10.6% | 2017 | 31.6% | 0.0% | 15.8% | Road | 35.1% | 7.7% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Years | 29.9% | 15.7% | 6.2% | 2017 | 35.6% | 24.3% | 13.8% | Home | 29.6% | 12.5% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 36.1% | 26.7% | 13.9% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 31.1% | 13.6% | 13.4% | 2017 | 31.9% | 25.0% | 18.0% | Home | 33.0% | 17.2% | 17.0% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 20.0% | 18.2% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | Home | 28.9% | 13.4% | 4.5% | RH | 30.4% | 12.9% | 8.0% | L7Days | 33.0% | 13.2% | 11.5% |
| Giants | Road | 32.1% | 10.1% | 13.4% | LH | 26.9% | 9.4% | 5.4% | L7Days | 29.7% | 5.5% | 9.7% |
| Padres | Home | 26.0% | 12.9% | 3.1% | RH | 28.9% | 17.5% | 7.5% | L7Days | 25.2% | 13.5% | 3.1% |
| Yankees | Road | 28.7% | 10.3% | 10.2% | LH | 27.4% | 16.7% | 10.8% | L7Days | 23.3% | 24.5% | 3.8% |
| Rangers | Road | 28.3% | 13.4% | 8.7% | RH | 33.9% | 16.8% | 15.5% | L7Days | 35.6% | 20.0% | 19.6% |
| Dodgers | Road | 29.8% | 9.4% | 11.3% | LH | 33.7% | 8.8% | 20.0% | L7Days | 36.4% | 19.6% | 26.5% |
| White Sox | Road | 25.2% | 11.6% | 9.1% | RH | 25.6% | 11.0% | 6.1% | L7Days | 28.0% | 10.6% | 10.5% |
| Orioles | Home | 26.2% | 10.1% | 7.7% | RH | 30.4% | 13.3% | 10.3% | L7Days | 31.2% | 8.2% | 11.1% |
| Brewers | Road | 29.1% | 20.7% | 10.5% | RH | 33.2% | 20.5% | 14.1% | L7Days | 28.9% | 13.3% | 10.0% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 33.9% | 13.8% | 14.6% | RH | 31.9% | 11.9% | 10.7% | L7Days | 38.0% | 17.2% | 21.5% |
| Indians | Road | 37.7% | 9.1% | 19.8% | LH | 35.6% | 8.7% | 19.2% | L7Days | 34.2% | 4.8% | 21.0% |
| Astros | Road | 31.6% | 11.9% | 12.4% | RH | 31.3% | 13.6% | 11.7% | L7Days | 24.3% | 15.4% | 5.0% |
| Tigers | Road | 33.6% | 13.8% | 14.7% | RH | 44.2% | 11.4% | 28.3% | L7Days | 45.8% | 6.9% | 32.2% |
| Cubs | Home | 26.0% | 12.3% | 7.4% | LH | 27.2% | 18.6% | 1.2% | L7Days | 28.4% | 15.7% | 12.0% |
| Athletics | Home | 29.6% | 15.3% | 13.6% | RH | 34.7% | 12.7% | 17.9% | L7Days | 30.7% | 7.7% | 11.7% |
| Royals | Home | 29.7% | 8.6% | 8.2% | RH | 30.3% | 11.9% | 8.5% | L7Days | 31.7% | 7.8% | 10.0% |
| Cardinals | Road | 35.2% | 12.6% | 19.9% | RH | 29.4% | 12.9% | 10.0% | L7Days | 25.8% | 14.3% | 6.1% |
| Angels | Home | 25.0% | 12.5% | 5.8% | RH | 28.1% | 12.4% | 6.6% | L7Days | 30.9% | 11.7% | 14.9% |
| Rays | Home | 35.6% | 14.3% | 15.1% | RH | 33.8% | 15.2% | 13.6% | L7Days | 31.5% | 9.8% | 9.5% |
| Mariners | Home | 31.3% | 10.8% | 13.1% | LH | 26.1% | 6.3% | 3.7% | L7Days | 30.9% | 13.6% | 18.5% |
| Pirates | Home | 27.7% | 10.4% | 5.4% | RH | 29.5% | 7.7% | 8.6% | L7Days | 34.6% | 11.4% | 16.5% |
| Braves | Home | 32.6% | 12.0% | 14.2% | RH | 31.7% | 11.7% | 13.3% | L7Days | 37.0% | 14.0% | 18.5% |
| Padres | Home | 26.0% | 12.9% | 3.1% | RH | 28.9% | 17.5% | 7.5% | L7Days | 25.2% | 13.5% | 3.1% |
| Mets | Home | 28.9% | 9.6% | 9.0% | RH | 31.9% | 12.4% | 12.9% | L7Days | 39.2% | 17.1% | 19.3% |
| Rockies | Home | 30.8% | 18.2% | 11.5% | LH | 34.0% | 19.3% | 16.2% | L7Days | 28.8% | 13.7% | 11.0% |
| Twins | Home | 32.3% | 12.3% | 13.9% | RH | 34.6% | 15.4% | 19.0% | L7Days | 32.1% | 23.1% | 13.0% |
| Marlins | Road | 28.0% | 11.6% | 6.8% | RH | 29.4% | 11.9% | 8.8% | L7Days | 25.9% | 4.9% | 2.1% |
| Reds | Home | 29.3% | 13.4% | 7.5% | LH | 31.0% | 20.8% | 8.2% | L7Days | 29.6% | 10.6% | 8.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 30.4% | 12.7% | 12.2% | LH | 34.0% | 12.0% | 19.1% | L7Days | 34.8% | 21.4% | 17.4% |
| Nationals | Road | 30.7% | 15.6% | 14.6% | RH | 31.6% | 14.5% | 16.4% | L7Days | 39.4% | 19.6% | 30.0% |
K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | WAS | ||||||
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 21.3% | 10.1% | 2.11 | 21.3% | 10.1% | 2.11 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.57 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.57 |
| Brett Anderson | CHC | 14.4% | 8.1% | 1.78 | 14.4% | 8.1% | 1.78 |
| Chase De Jong | SEA | 8.1% | 5.6% | 1.45 | 8.1% | 5.6% | 1.45 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 15.1% | 9.1% | 1.66 | 14.4% | 8.2% | 1.76 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 16.6% | 10.3% | 1.61 | 16.6% | 10.3% | 1.61 |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | 8.4% | 4.8% | 1.75 | 8.4% | 4.8% | 1.75 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 23.0% | 9.7% | 2.37 | 25.4% | 10.6% | 2.40 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 20.0% | 12.5% | 1.60 | 23.3% | 12.2% | 1.91 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 23.6% | 12.4% | 1.90 | 23.6% | 12.4% | 1.90 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 27.9% | 12.2% | 2.29 | 29.8% | 12.8% | 2.33 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 20.0% | 8.1% | 2.47 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 2.47 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 25.0% | 15.0% | 1.67 | 25.0% | 15.0% | 1.67 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 13.0% | 8.2% | 1.59 | 13.0% | 8.2% | 1.59 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 15.6% | 5.6% | 2.79 | 15.6% | 5.6% | 2.79 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 17.8% | 8.1% | 2.20 | 16.5% | 7.6% | 2.17 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 30.9% | 13.0% | 2.38 | 32.0% | 13.0% | 2.46 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 25.2% | 12.4% | 2.03 | 26.8% | 13.0% | 2.06 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 13.8% | 6.4% | 2.16 | 13.3% | 6.5% | 2.05 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 23.9% | 8.3% | 2.88 | 23.9% | 8.3% | 2.88 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 19.1% | 7.4% | 2.58 | 19.1% | 7.4% | 2.58 |
| Nick Tepesch | LOS | ||||||
| Odrisamer Despaigne | MIA | ||||||
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 19.6% | 12.0% | 1.63 | 22.1% | 13.0% | 1.70 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 24.1% | 11.3% | 2.13 | 25.0% | 12.3% | 2.03 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 17.5% | 6.7% | 2.61 | 17.2% | 6.3% | 2.73 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 7.3% | 4.1% | 1.78 | 7.4% | 4.2% | 1.76 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 17.5% | 12.1% | 1.45 | 14.2% | 11.1% | 1.28 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 22.6% | 10.6% | 2.13 | 22.6% | 10.6% | 2.13 |
Eight pitchers with a 12+ SwStr%, but four are on the day slate and one is in Colorado.
ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.34 ERA – 4.30 SIERA – 4.24 xFIP – 4.30 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | WAS | ||||||||||||||||
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 4.5 | 4.03 | -0.47 | 4.05 | -0.45 | 5.11 | 0.61 | 6.16 | 1.66 | 4.5 | 4.03 | -0.47 | 4.05 | -0.45 | 5.11 | 0.61 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 3.1 | 4.05 | 0.95 | 3.79 | 0.69 | 3.59 | 0.49 | 3.59 | 0.49 | 3.1 | 4.05 | 0.95 | 3.79 | 0.69 | 3.59 | 0.49 |
| Brett Anderson | CHC | 6.23 | 4.95 | -1.28 | 4.39 | -1.84 | 4.52 | -1.71 | 7.69 | 1.46 | 6.23 | 4.96 | -1.27 | 4.39 | -1.84 | 4.52 | -1.71 |
| Chase De Jong | SEA | 11.05 | 6.82 | -4.23 | 7.88 | -3.17 | 7.82 | -3.23 | 11.05 | 6.84 | -4.21 | 7.88 | -3.17 | 7.82 | -3.23 | ||
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 4.29 | 3.8 | -0.49 | 3.64 | -0.65 | 4.58 | 0.29 | 4.05 | -0.24 | 5.53 | 4.04 | -1.49 | 3.84 | -1.69 | 5.18 | -0.35 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 1.82 | 4.68 | 2.86 | 4.58 | 2.76 | 3.27 | 1.45 | 3.26 | 1.44 | 1.82 | 4.69 | 2.87 | 4.58 | 2.76 | 3.27 | 1.45 |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | 7.29 | 6.03 | -1.26 | 5.98 | -1.31 | 6.95 | -0.34 | 10.73 | 3.44 | 7.29 | 6.03 | -1.26 | 5.98 | -1.31 | 6.95 | -0.34 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 3.5 | 3.55 | 0.05 | 3.53 | 0.03 | 3.9 | 0.4 | 3.50 | 0.00 | 2.61 | 3.31 | 0.7 | 3.37 | 0.76 | 3.66 | 1.05 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 3.5 | 4.14 | 0.64 | 4.25 | 0.75 | 5.21 | 1.71 | 6.21 | 2.71 | 2.25 | 3.44 | 1.19 | 3.37 | 1.12 | 4.29 | 2.04 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 1.42 | 3.42 | 2 | 3.36 | 1.94 | 2.1 | 0.68 | 2.98 | 1.56 | 1.42 | 3.43 | 2.01 | 3.36 | 1.94 | 2.1 | 0.68 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 4.23 | 3.36 | -0.87 | 3.39 | -0.84 | 3.19 | -1.04 | 1.41 | -2.82 | 4.05 | 3.03 | -1.02 | 3.06 | -0.99 | 2.48 | -1.57 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 2.53 | 4.06 | 1.53 | 4.06 | 1.53 | 2.76 | 0.23 | 2.24 | -0.29 | 2.53 | 4.06 | 1.53 | 4.06 | 1.53 | 2.76 | 0.23 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 4.15 | 4.1 | -0.05 | 4.35 | 0.2 | 3.64 | -0.51 | 2.37 | -1.78 | 4.15 | 4.11 | -0.04 | 4.35 | 0.2 | 3.64 | -0.51 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 6.18 | 5.54 | -0.64 | 5.77 | -0.41 | 5.43 | -0.75 | 5.37 | -0.81 | 6.18 | 5.55 | -0.63 | 5.77 | -0.41 | 5.43 | -0.75 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 8.87 | 3.63 | -5.24 | 3.38 | -5.49 | 3.77 | -5.1 | 11.34 | 2.47 | 8.87 | 3.63 | -5.24 | 3.38 | -5.49 | 3.77 | -5.1 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 4.33 | 5.19 | 0.86 | 5.27 | 0.94 | 4.32 | -0.01 | 4.35 | 0.02 | 5.22 | 5.33 | 0.11 | 5.38 | 0.16 | 4.68 | -0.54 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 4.08 | 2.76 | -1.32 | 2.48 | -1.6 | 3.38 | -0.7 | 2.13 | -1.95 | 4.6 | 2.81 | -1.79 | 2.58 | -2.02 | 3.72 | -0.88 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 2.43 | 3.61 | 1.18 | 3.94 | 1.51 | 2.93 | 0.5 | 4.24 | 1.81 | 2.32 | 3.39 | 1.07 | 3.64 | 1.32 | 2.98 | 0.66 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 4.26 | 5.68 | 1.42 | 5.2 | 0.94 | 4.81 | 0.55 | 6.41 | 2.15 | 4.21 | 5.65 | 1.44 | 5.23 | 1.02 | 4.56 | 0.35 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 3.38 | 3.44 | 0.06 | 3.22 | -0.16 | 4.26 | 0.88 | 3.80 | 0.42 | 3.38 | 3.46 | 0.08 | 3.22 | -0.16 | 4.26 | 0.88 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 1.35 | 3.43 | 2.08 | 3.18 | 1.83 | 1.99 | 0.64 | 2.44 | 1.09 | 1.35 | 3.43 | 2.08 | 3.18 | 1.83 | 1.99 | 0.64 |
| Nick Tepesch | LOS | ||||||||||||||||
| Odrisamer Despaigne | MIA | ||||||||||||||||
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 2.29 | 4.12 | 1.83 | 4.05 | 1.76 | 3.47 | 1.18 | 5.01 | 2.72 | 2.01 | 3.82 | 1.81 | 3.79 | 1.78 | 3.39 | 1.38 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 4.46 | 3.55 | -0.91 | 3.74 | -0.72 | 4.14 | -0.32 | 3.86 | -0.60 | 4.5 | 3.49 | -1.01 | 3.62 | -0.88 | 4.61 | 0.11 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 6.75 | 3.97 | -2.78 | 3.97 | -2.78 | 4.32 | -2.43 | 7.23 | 0.48 | 7.01 | 4.02 | -2.99 | 4.02 | -2.99 | 4.45 | -2.56 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 2.55 | 5.79 | 3.24 | 5.35 | 2.8 | 3.67 | 1.12 | 6.54 | 3.99 | 2.65 | 5.83 | 3.18 | 5.44 | 2.79 | 3.69 | 1.04 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 7.71 | 4.65 | -3.06 | 4.67 | -3.04 | 6.5 | -1.21 | 7.65 | -0.06 | 7.66 | 5.19 | -2.47 | 5.3 | -2.36 | 7.3 | -0.36 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 5.47 | 4.58 | -0.89 | 4.51 | -0.96 | 5.97 | 0.5 | 4.29 | -1.18 | 5.47 | 4.58 | -0.89 | 4.51 | -0.96 | 5.97 | 0.5 |
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.2 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | WAS | 0.284 | ||||||||||
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 0.270 | 0.231 | -0.039 | 50.6% | 0.157 | 7.1% | 87.3% | 89.5 | 4.80% | 3.30% | 84 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 0.295 | 0.291 | -0.004 | 41.3% | 0.25 | 11.1% | 89.4% | 85.3 | 3.70% | 2.60% | 82 |
| Brett Anderson | CHC | 0.289 | 0.347 | 0.058 | 50.6% | 0.312 | 7.1% | 89.4% | 89.5 | 6.50% | 4.80% | 77 |
| Chase De Jong | SEA | 0.299 | 0.370 | 0.071 | 31.0% | 0.138 | 0.0% | 95.5% | 90.4 | 3.40% | 2.70% | 29 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 0.289 | 0.330 | 0.041 | 64.0% | 0.193 | 5.3% | 88.6% | 87.9 | 5.10% | 3.90% | 117 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 0.294 | 0.257 | -0.037 | 32.7% | 0.257 | 19.1% | 88.3% | 86.6 | 6.10% | 4.60% | 115 |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | 0.260 | 0.310 | 0.05 | 46.7% | 0.173 | 0.0% | 95.2% | 89.5 | 10.50% | 8.40% | 76 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 0.302 | 0.277 | -0.025 | 46.1% | 0.157 | 7.7% | 85.8% | 86.3 | 6.50% | 4.70% | 107 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.278 | 0.170 | -0.108 | 33.3% | 0.255 | 4.8% | 83.3% | 87.3 | 7.80% | 5.70% | 51 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 0.279 | 0.284 | 0.005 | 42.0% | 0.216 | 6.3% | 77.1% | 84.7 | 2.20% | 1.60% | 89 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 0.291 | 0.294 | 0.003 | 37.7% | 0.232 | 14.8% | 80.2% | 86.2 | 5.60% | 3.60% | 71 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 0.275 | 0.247 | -0.028 | 43.5% | 0.207 | 9.1% | 91.2% | 87.3 | 6.50% | 4.60% | 93 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 0.277 | 0.357 | 0.08 | 37.9% | 0.19 | 8.0% | 78.1% | 87.6 | 6.90% | 4.30% | 58 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 0.307 | 0.341 | 0.034 | 23.7% | 0.28 | 17.8% | 85.5% | 88.2 | 10.40% | 8.10% | 96 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 0.321 | 0.412 | 0.091 | 52.9% | 0.264 | 0.0% | 91.4% | 89.8 | 4.50% | 3.70% | 88 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.294 | 0.284 | -0.01 | 31.1% | 0.262 | 4.5% | 89.0% | 85.3 | 4.80% | 3.30% | 105 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 0.278 | 0.353 | 0.075 | 57.5% | 0.195 | 5.0% | 86.2% | 86.8 | 7.80% | 4.70% | 90 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 0.306 | 0.293 | -0.013 | 38.4% | 0.152 | 4.3% | 77.5% | 87.7 | 5.00% | 3.30% | 101 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 0.276 | 0.350 | 0.074 | 41.3% | 0.288 | 9.7% | 92.1% | 88.3 | 6.60% | 4.80% | 106 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 0.315 | 0.267 | -0.048 | 50.0% | 0.219 | 11.1% | 85.1% | 91.7 | 6.30% | 4.30% | 32 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 0.317 | 0.277 | -0.04 | 55.0% | 0.21 | 0.0% | 91.0% | 85.8 | 3.00% | 2.30% | 101 |
| Nick Tepesch | LOS | 0.295 | ||||||||||
| Odrisamer Despaigne | MIA | 0.273 | ||||||||||
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 0.300 | 0.287 | -0.013 | 47.3% | 0.2 | 13.9% | 82.3% | 88.7 | 5.50% | 3.90% | 110 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.294 | 0.318 | 0.024 | 42.1% | 0.175 | 13.0% | 85.2% | 89.7 | 12.30% | 8.60% | 114 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 0.323 | 0.352 | 0.029 | 57.8% | 0.222 | 5.6% | 89.7% | 86 | 5.50% | 4.00% | 91 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 0.299 | 0.175 | -0.124 | 45.5% | 0.218 | 5.6% | 93.2% | 86.1 | 1.80% | 1.40% | 57 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 0.280 | 0.304 | 0.024 | 35.7% | 0.265 | 13.5% | 82.1% | 85.4 | 10.90% | 8.00% | 101 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 0.280 | 0.258 | -0.022 | 47.2% | 0.194 | 12.5% | 83.8% | 89.9 | 8.30% | 5.20% | 72 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Lance McCullers (1) is the 30 K% guy on the slate tonight who was supposed to be doing this. He’s accompanied by another couple of guys who have shown surprisingly elite bat missing ability through a few starts, but he’s the one we should probably feel most confident in sustaining it. That’s not to say he’s perfectly consistent because he’s not, but he costs just $8.5K on FanDuel against an offense that’s struck out quite a bit more often than you’d probably expect against RHP. On DraftKings, he’s $2.9K more, where I might opt for the cheaper upside arms (Ramirez, Montgomery) first.
JC Ramirez (3) is not in a good spot against Houston, but he’s come out of nowhere with bat-missing rates that can’t be ignored. He’s been doing this for nearly a month and still costs no more than $7K.
Value Tier Two
Jordan Montgomery (4) doesn’t have amazing results and has only gone six innings twice, but hasn’t allowed more than three runs yet and is missing bats at an elite rate. The Cubs are not an easy assignment in Wrigley, but he only costs $7K with a 15.0 SwStr%.
Value Tier Three
Clayton Richard isn’t going to generate a lot of strikeouts, but he’s a ground ball machine in a nice spot, who profiles a bit better than his results.
Gerrit Cole (2) is hopefully healthy again and ready to continue generating strikeouts at an above average rate. He has a nice matchup that’s even better if Braun is out against for the strikeout prone Brewers, but his cost has risen quickly.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Amir Garrett might be an average arm at an average price. The Giants probably aren’t this bad, but they’re not a team to avoid. On a stronger day or even a normal one, he might miss the cut, but today’s not such a day.
There are a couple of other pitchers that could be placed here on one site or the other, which you should be able to figure out from the write-ups, but there’s likely a nice gap between the top three tiers and anyone else tonight.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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