Advanced Stats – Pitching: Tuesday, August 1st
This…THIS…might be the best pitching board we’ve seen this year and certainly the deepest. Not only are approximately half of the pitchers on a full 15 game slate usable tonight, but most of them would have probably been top tier guys yesterday.
A slate like this is actually pretty difficult to write because there’s so much great information. In fact, I’d venture it’s even more difficult to play because you essentially have too many options. Who’s you’re single lineup FanDuel pitcher? Sale or Scherzer? But Lester and Nola have been pitching great too.
Nine pitchers on this slate have a 25+ K% over the last month. Three of them are named Nelson, Fiers and Corbin.
I know who I’d pick as my top pitcher and as my top value (they may or may not be the same pitcher) and I’m going to spend the next four thousand words telling you, but when there are so many great choices so closely grouped together, is it really just a giant crapshoot?
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 2.2 | 3.53 | 5.83 | 50.8% | 0.91 | 3.59 | 2.41 | ANA | 98 | 94 | 118 |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 1.7 | 4.34 | 5.33 | 39.1% | 1.01 | 4.93 | 4.94 | NYY | 118 | 115 | 110 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 0.3 | 3.29 | 6.04 | 47.2% | 1.13 | 3.23 | 3.92 | BOS | 89 | 89 | 95 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | -1.5 | 3.84 | 6.23 | 53.6% | 1.02 | 3.82 | 3.35 | MIL | 89 | 93 | 57 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 2.4 | 4.5 | 5.77 | 49.8% | 1.01 | 4.11 | 4.62 | DET | 92 | 126 | 105 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | -0.5 | 3.55 | 6.17 | 45.3% | 0.94 | 3.71 | 2.37 | HOU | 125 | 133 | 106 |
| Chris O’Grady | MIA | 4.9 | 5.07 | 5.5 | 28.3% | 0.94 | 5.09 | 5.45 | WAS | 102 | 105 | 98 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 5.4 | 2.97 | 6.97 | 39.9% | 1.13 | 3.07 | 2.41 | CLE | 100 | 106 | 134 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | -5.1 | 4.58 | 5.62 | 33.6% | 1.02 | 4.85 | 5.52 | KAN | 87 | 90 | 111 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | SEA | 7.4 | 4.01 | 5.53 | 50.1% | 1.11 | 4.38 | 3.38 | TEX | 105 | 97 | 128 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 7.3 | 4.54 | 4.32 | 47.5% | 0.97 | 3.87 | 5.51 | PIT | 91 | 88 | 64 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 7.2 | 4.19 | 5.8 | 35.6% | 1.02 | 4.74 | 4.93 | BAL | 98 | 96 | 87 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | -2.4 | 3.77 | 5.63 | 52.1% | 0.97 | 3.44 | 4.23 | CIN | 91 | 97 | 59 |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | -3.9 | 4.91 | 5.28 | 42.1% | 1.39 | 5.44 | 6.58 | NYM | 107 | 101 | 83 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | -3 | 3.91 | 6.31 | 43.2% | 0.93 | 3.67 | 3.91 | OAK | 111 | 103 | 109 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | -5.4 | 4.39 | 5.49 | 49.5% | 0.91 | 4.13 | 4.66 | MIN | 89 | 98 | 75 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | -1.6 | 4.27 | 5.73 | 50.0% | 1.02 | 4 | 2.77 | STL | 88 | 97 | 77 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 3.2 | 3.61 | 6.23 | 48.1% | 0.96 | 3.44 | 3.07 | ARI | 81 | 72 | 103 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | -0.2 | 4.7 | 5.07 | 40.0% | 0.91 | 5.4 | 4.76 | SDG | 91 | 88 | 109 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 2.8 | 3.82 | 5.38 | 42.1% | 1 | 3.88 | 4.63 | ATL | 88 | 87 | 107 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | -1.9 | 3.68 | 6.35 | 61.3% | 0.98 | 3.48 | 4.91 | CHW | 89 | 86 | 79 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 1 | 2.85 | 6.75 | 34.8% | 0.94 | 3.47 | 3.03 | MIA | 88 | 97 | 128 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | -5.5 | 4.16 | 5.65 | 42.1% | 0.94 | 3.78 | 3.35 | TAM | 96 | 108 | 89 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | -0.1 | 5.11 | 4.98 | 50.1% | 0.98 | 5.12 | 6.44 | TOR | 91 | 91 | 111 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 1.8 | 5.35 | 5.27 | 0.444 | 1.11 | 5.25 | SEA | 95 | 103 | 93 | |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | -5.4 | 4.16 | 5.52 | 0.509 | 0.96 | 4.08 | 4.71 | CHC | 98 | 109 | 98 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 2 | 4.44 | 5.91 | 0.425 | 0.91 | 4.39 | 5.02 | PHI | 77 | 89 | 121 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | -11.2 | 4.08 | 5.87 | 0.446 | 0.93 | 4.06 | 4.88 | SFO | 83 | 81 | 84 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | -1.6 | 3.77 | 5.75 | 0.493 | 1.39 | 3.81 | 3.17 | COL | 89 | 96 | 63 |
| Lucas Sims | ATL | -1.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | LOS | 103 | 110 | 103 |
Aaron Nola struck out a season high 10 last time out, but failed to go seven innings for only the second time in seven starts. Over that span, he now has a 24.3 K-BB%. For the year, he has limited hard contact with 4.9% Barrels/BBE and 29.2% 95+ mph EV. He gets a park upgrade traveling to the west coast to face the Angels.
Carlos Carrasco is 11th in the majors with a 21.1 K-BB%. His 43.9 GB% is a career low, which has led to 9.4% Barrels/BBE, which is second highest on the board with otherwise marginal contact management. He’s gone at least six innings in seven of his last eight starts and travels to a tough park in Fenway to face not a high strikeout offense, but a very low power one (8.8 HR/FB at home).
Carlos Martinez has allowed a HR in five straight starts and exactly five runs in three of those. He did strike out more than five for the first time in that span last time out though, when he got eight Rockies and at least has a double digit SwStr% in two straight starts now with a ground ball rate above 60% in both of those starts as well. His 25.9 K% and 17.1 K-BB% is a career high and while his 50.3 GB% is a career low, it’s still 11th best among qualified pitchers. His 33.9 Hard% is also the highest mark of his career. He’s in a dangerous spot against a below average offense that strikes out over a quarter of the time, but with power (18 HR/FB at home and vs RHP). They’ve been the coldest offense on the board over the last week though. While LHBs have a wOBA 100 points higher against him this year, the Brewers only have a couple to be concerned with and he generates the same rate of ground balls against batters from either side.
Chris Archer struck out at least eight in every July outing with a 33.1 K% that was fourth on the board. His 21.9 K-BB% is seventh on the season. Contact management has not been a strength this year. While he’s allowed fewer HRs than last year, his 41.4 GB% and 38.1 Hard% are career worsts. His 88.8 mph aEV and 38.9 95+ mph EV are both bottom five marks on the board. He’s magically been able to turn that into 5.1% Barrels/BBE. With just a 22.2 LD% is it possible he’s generating most of his hard contact on the ground with a .330 BABIP? His 86 mph aEV on ground balls is behind only four qualifiers, while his 92.5 mph aEV on flies and liners is much closer to the middle of the board. Is that a skill? I’m asking because I don’t know and it doesn’t really do a great job of explaining the high 95+ mph contact rate. He faces Houston, which will severely cut into his strikeout rate (17.3% vs RHP, 16.6% at home), but it’s not a bad overall park and they’ve been around a league average offense without two top bats over the last week (9.9 HR/FB).
Chris Sale leads the majors with a 32.0 K-BB%. He and Scherzer are one-two in K% and SwStr%. While his 36.3 GB% is a career low by over four points, his contact management numbers are marginal, bordering on good, but nothing spectacular. His matchup is not favorable, hosting a Cleveland offense that is one of the hottest in the majors. They have just a 16.6 K% vs LHP this year and a 2.1 K-BB% overall in the last seven days.
Erasmo Ramirez has spent the last month in the bullpen for the Rays, not surpassing 37 pitches in any outing. Can he get five innings (75 to 80 pitches) in? He’s not terrible. Better than league average 13.8 K-BB%. Above average 48.6 GB%. Contact is a bit on the hard side, which is not ideal in Texas. The Rangers have power (17 HR/FB at home and vs RHP), but they strike out quite a bit (23.9% vs RHP).
Jameson Taillon got CRUSHED in his last start. The Giants scored nine runs in three innings. He struck out one with 18 of 21 batters putting the ball in play. Eight of them were on the ground and he had a 5.6 Hard-Soft%. That doesn’t sound like it should result in a .500 BABIP. He generates more than half his contact on the ground (51.6%) and now has a strikeout rate above average (22%) with a 10 SwStr% over the last month. He gets to host a Cincinnati offense with a 23.1 K% and 8.6 HR/FB over the last week.
Jeff Samardzija has not excelled at run prevention, but his 23.0 K-BB% is just behind the four Cy Young candidates among qualifiers. Despite the 21 HRs, both Statcast and Fangraphs suggest a capable contact manager (6.2 Hard-Soft%, 5.4% Barrels/BBE, 30.4% 95+ mph EV). While he’s not at home tonight, Oakland is a favorable park, which helps neutralize a decent offense with some power, but also a strikeout rate nearing a quarter of plate appearances.
Jimmy Nelson struck out 10 for the fifth time in 12 starts last time out. Since the first of those on May 28th, LHBs are still hitting him hard (20.0 Hard-Soft%), but much less often (37.3 K%), while RHBs are just pounding the ball into the ground (1.9 BB%, 57.9 GB%, -2.7 Hard-Soft%). The Cardinals have a 17.7 K-BB% and 0.0 Hard-Soft% over the last week.
Jon Lester has bounced back from a terrible start in Pittsburgh with three straight starts of least seven innings with less than three runs. His 24.4 K% is within a point of each of his last three seasons with his highest ground ball rate since 2011 (49.7%) and a hard hit rate (26.5%) almost exactly at his career average as well. His 26.8% 95+ mph EV is best on the board. While he has a 55 GB% and 5.3 Hard-Soft% over his last seven starts, the one concern would be that he’s allowed multiple HRs in three of his last four starts. By pure numbers, he’s in one of the top spots on the board. The Diamondbacks have been terrible both on the road (24.2 K%) and vs LHP (25.5 K%). Their newest acquisition (J.D. Martinez) might have something to say about their overall inadequacies though.
Marcus Stroman has the second best ground ball rate (62.7%) among qualifiers with a perfectly league average strikeout rate. An inability to manage contact well (88.1 mph aEV, 37.5% 95+ mph EV) generates a .313 BABIP, while the ground balls keep the big damage to a minimum (5.7% Barrels/BBE). The White Sox represent a favorable matchup with very few remaining threats from a lineup that wasn’t very good to begin with.
Max Scherzer is third in the majors with a 29.5 K-BB%. He and Sale are one-two in K% and SwStr%. He’s struck out nine or more in 11 of his last 12 starts, but hasn’t gone more than six innings in three straight, though he did throw 109 pitches last time out…in an absolute blowout. Statcast has he and Sale as almost identical contact managers this year. The one place where he has the clear advantage in his BABIP profile is line drive rate. It’s otherwise amazing how identical their lines are. He also has a much superior matchup, facing a merely average Marlins’ offense in Miami.
Sean Manaea has gone at least seven innings in four of his last five starts, but with a drop in peripherals. Previous to an 11.1 SwStr% in his last start, he was below 9% in each of his last four starts. Perhaps the increase in contact was intentional to lower his walk rate and get him deeper into games, as it wasn’t translating into a ton of strikeouts anyway, but he was never really an effective contact manager, so the overall long term results remain to be seen. He may be in the top run or power prevention spot on the board, hosting the Giants tonight.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Ian Kennedy (.224 – 70.5% – 13.7) has been pitching well lately (23.9 K% in July) and has even allowed just three HRs over his last five starts, but with a hard hit rate above 50% in three of those five starts. The Orioles have a 15.3 K-BB% vs RHP, but he’s transitioning to a much more power friendly park with a 10.0% Barrels/BBE that’s highest on the board.
C.C. Sabathia (.273 – 73% – 11.8) doesn’t have a BABIP that seems out of line, but it’s the lowest mark of his career. His contact profile is strong, but the strikeouts are disappearing and the Tigers still have the personnel to mash LHP. While his 50.4 GB% is the second highest mark of his career, all 10 of his HRs have been surrendered to RHBs, against which he has a 47 GB% and 35.3 Hard% this year. He’s dominated LHBs (68.2 GB%, -23.9 Hard-Soft%), but may not even see one tonight.
Chris O’Grady (.293 – 78.8% – 7.1) has a 12.8 BB% with a fluky strikeout rate (3.6 K/SwStr) and 88.9 mph aEV.
Mike Pelfrey (.269 – 71.7% – 14.6) has a 10.2% unearned run rate with a 3.8 K-BB%. LHBs continue to destroy him (.376 wOBA, 40.5 GB%), so basically Justin Smoak tonight.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Kenta Maeda has seen both his strikeouts and SwStr rate collapse over the last month, but remains a solid contact manager for the most part. His Statcast rates are best on the board (84.1 mph aEV, 3.1% Barrels/BBE). While he’s unlikely to give you more than five innings, they’re very likely to be quality innings against a low power Atlanta offense without their cleanup hitter. I really wavered a lot about giving him a fourth tier nod, but ultimately the workload with decreasing strikeouts won out.
Mike Fiers has the third highest strikeout rate on the board over the last month (33.6%), but it’s unsupported by merely a league average 9.2 SwStr% that’s actually a fraction lower than his overall season rate. While some have pointed to a sinker added in mid-May as a turnaround point for him, his July also consisted of a 10.1 BB% and 26.6 GB%. He’s in a high upside spot against the Rays (25 K% vs RHP), but you never know what you’re going to get out of him and there are far more stable pitchers with the same or even more upside within in his price range tonight.
Lucas Sims was not highly regarded by Fangraphs this pre-season, which called his fastball flat and lifeless and did not even include him among their top 32 prospects. However, he’s since run a 20.5 K-BB% in a second go at AAA after just an 8.7% mark in 50 innings last year and not much better in 91 AA innings. More recently, better arm action has been credited for improvement. He starts off in a difficult spot, hosting the Dodgers at a near minimum cost on DraftKings for those who think he’ll have an advantage from being unseen.
Jhoulys Chacin has three straight quality starts on the road, but two of them were in San Francisco and Philadelphia. He’s done a decent enough job for the Padres this year and has been something of a league average pitcher. He has a .247 BABIP and 84.3 LOB% in July with actually his worst monthly K-BB rate of the season (10.1%). While his 46.8 GB% is also his worst, a -6.3 Hard-Soft% was exceptional. He’s in a decent spot at an average cost in Minnesota, but is that really what you’re looking for on this board when there’s so much upside for just $1-2K more?
Patrick Corbin has a 26.4 K% and 13.9 SwStr% over the last month. While his contact management in July was also an improvement, it was nothing exceptional, while his home and away contact rates are very similar. The easy out here is that he’s facing a quality offense against LHP (12.3 BB%, 17.7 HR/FB).
Steven Matz is better than his ERA over the last month, but Colorado is not where we want to test that theory.
Jose Berrios has collapsed over the last month.
Dylan Bundy did not allow a HR in any of his first four starts of the season. He’s failed to allow on in only two of 16 starts since.
Home Bailey
Jeff Hoffman has struck out three or fewer in four straight starts and is in the worst spot on the board.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 24.6% | 6.5% | Road | 23.0% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 38.8% | 6.1% |
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | L2 Years | 20.2% | 7.5% | Road | 18.1% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 10.9% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 27.6% | 6.2% | Road | 28.0% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 3.9% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 23.4% | 8.3% | Road | 24.6% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 5.7% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 19.3% | 9.1% | Home | 20.5% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 9.5% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 27.9% | 8.3% | Road | 25.6% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 38.9% | 5.6% |
| Chris O’Grady | Marlins | L2 Years | 22.3% | 12.8% | Home | 22.0% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 16.3% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 30.4% | 5.0% | Home | 30.5% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 6.0% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 20.2% | 8.4% | Home | 19.8% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 8.0% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Mariners | L2 Years | 17.9% | 5.9% | Road | 15.2% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 6.3% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | L2 Years | 17.0% | 7.6% | Road | 18.2% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 23.2% | 8.5% | Road | 21.8% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 19.5% | 9.8% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 21.1% | 5.6% | Home | 20.6% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 6.7% |
| Jeff Hoffman | Rockies | L2 Years | 17.8% | 9.1% | Home | 14.5% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 11.6% | 16.3% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 21.6% | 5.5% | Road | 22.8% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 6.1% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 19.3% | 8.7% | Home | 20.5% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 8.9% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 20.8% | 8.8% | Home | 22.0% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 4.2% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 24.7% | 6.6% | Home | 25.1% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 2.6% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 20.1% | 9.5% | Road | 19.0% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 6.3% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 24.3% | 6.8% | Road | 23.5% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 7.0% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.6% | 6.9% | Road | 20.3% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 16.7% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 33.0% | 6.0% | Road | 32.4% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 10.4% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 21.1% | 7.2% | Home | 21.9% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 32.0% | 8.0% |
| Mike Pelfrey | White Sox | L2 Years | 12.6% | 8.5% | Home | 12.9% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 18.6% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | L2 Years | 11.8% | 7.9% | Home | 12.0% | 7.4% | L14 Days | ||
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 19.7% | 7.7% | Road | 18.8% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 19.0% | 8.6% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Angels | L2 Years | 18.3% | 6.0% | Home | 17.9% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 10.4% | 4.2% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 22.0% | 7.1% | Home | 22.5% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 16.4% | 1.8% |
| Steven Matz | Mets | L2 Years | 21.5% | 5.5% | Road | 20.7% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Sims | Braves | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | Home | L14 Days |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angels | Home | 18.7% | 7.7% | RH | 19.9% | 8.0% | L7Days | 18.1% | 6.2% |
| Yankees | Home | 23.4% | 10.6% | RH | 22.6% | 9.6% | L7Days | 22.3% | 9.1% |
| Red Sox | Home | 18.2% | 9.5% | RH | 19.2% | 8.7% | L7Days | 16.0% | 8.8% |
| Brewers | Home | 26.2% | 8.4% | RH | 25.3% | 8.5% | L7Days | 24.9% | 8.7% |
| Tigers | Road | 23.1% | 9.1% | LH | 19.0% | 8.2% | L7Days | 21.8% | 9.4% |
| Astros | Home | 16.6% | 8.0% | RH | 17.3% | 8.1% | L7Days | 17.4% | 5.4% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.8% | 8.6% | LH | 21.7% | 7.5% | L7Days | 25.9% | 5.6% |
| Indians | Road | 18.1% | 9.4% | LH | 16.6% | 10.4% | L7Days | 14.7% | 12.6% |
| Royals | Road | 21.4% | 6.0% | RH | 20.7% | 6.5% | L7Days | 19.1% | 5.4% |
| Rangers | Home | 22.1% | 9.5% | RH | 23.9% | 9.1% | L7Days | 23.1% | 9.7% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.1% | 9.1% | RH | 18.8% | 8.4% | L7Days | 26.7% | 6.1% |
| Orioles | Home | 22.0% | 7.2% | RH | 22.1% | 6.8% | L7Days | 17.9% | 8.0% |
| Reds | Road | 20.4% | 7.7% | RH | 21.1% | 8.8% | L7Days | 23.1% | 10.7% |
| Mets | Road | 20.8% | 8.5% | RH | 18.8% | 8.9% | L7Days | 25.0% | 6.3% |
| Athletics | Home | 24.6% | 9.6% | RH | 24.8% | 9.6% | L7Days | 18.9% | 12.1% |
| Twins | Road | 22.7% | 9.4% | RH | 22.5% | 9.8% | L7Days | 24.6% | 11.6% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.5% | 8.5% | RH | 21.7% | 8.7% | L7Days | 25.6% | 7.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 24.2% | 8.5% | LH | 25.5% | 8.0% | L7Days | 24.2% | 11.9% |
| Padres | Home | 24.7% | 8.4% | RH | 25.4% | 7.7% | L7Days | 22.6% | 7.7% |
| Braves | Home | 19.9% | 7.1% | RH | 19.8% | 7.1% | L7Days | 18.5% | 9.3% |
| White Sox | Home | 23.1% | 7.4% | RH | 22.7% | 6.6% | L7Days | 27.0% | 6.6% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.6% | 8.4% | RH | 20.5% | 7.5% | L7Days | 21.1% | 12.7% |
| Rays | Road | 25.8% | 8.6% | RH | 25.0% | 8.9% | L7Days | 29.3% | 9.9% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.4% | 9.2% | RH | 20.7% | 8.4% | L7Days | 19.8% | 9.7% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.5% | 7.4% | RH | 21.6% | 7.7% | L7Days | 26.2% | 9.8% |
| Cubs | Home | 20.9% | 10.0% | LH | 21.6% | 12.3% | L7Days | 26.7% | 12.3% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.4% | 7.7% | RH | 23.7% | 8.1% | L7Days | 25.9% | 8.8% |
| Giants | Road | 19.4% | 8.0% | LH | 18.9% | 7.7% | L7Days | 17.5% | 6.7% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.6% | 7.6% | LH | 24.1% | 7.4% | L7Days | 27.9% | 7.7% |
| Dodgers | Road | 22.3% | 10.9% | RH | 22.6% | 10.6% | L7Days | 19.0% | 9.5% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 29.1% | 12.4% | 7.0% | 2017 | 30.7% | 11.6% | 7.8% | Road | 30.6% | 7.2% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 9.1% | -7.4% |
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | L2 Years | 33.6% | 16.8% | 15.5% | 2017 | 38.1% | 16.7% | 21.1% | Road | 31.6% | 17.2% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 0.0% | 9.4% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 32.0% | 15.9% | 15.6% | 2017 | 30.5% | 15.0% | 13.2% | Road | 30.8% | 10.3% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 15.4% | 5.6% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 31.3% | 11.7% | 12.5% | 2017 | 33.9% | 15.6% | 15.6% | Road | 34.2% | 10.4% | 15.9% | L14 Days | 43.6% | 33.3% | 28.2% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 26.6% | 11.8% | 3.3% | 2017 | 31.3% | 11.8% | 8.9% | Home | 28.1% | 15.6% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 13.8% | 12.5% | -27.6% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 35.9% | 13.4% | 19.3% | 2017 | 38.1% | 11.3% | 22.1% | Road | 33.5% | 17.5% | 15.5% | L14 Days | 43.3% | 15.4% | 33.3% |
| Chris O’Grady | Marlins | L2 Years | 33.3% | 7.1% | 20.0% | 2017 | 33.3% | 7.1% | 20.0% | Home | 38.2% | 5.9% | 26.4% | L14 Days | 41.4% | 10.0% | 27.6% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 30.8% | 11.4% | 13.3% | 2017 | 29.8% | 7.8% | 11.4% | Home | 32.3% | 16.5% | 16.1% | L14 Days | 34.6% | 0.0% | 7.7% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 31.6% | 12.9% | 10.9% | 2017 | 34.9% | 12.6% | 16.7% | Home | 30.6% | 12.7% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 35.1% | 14.3% | 29.7% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Mariners | L2 Years | 31.2% | 14.1% | 13.6% | 2017 | 40.0% | 14.1% | 25.2% | Road | 34.9% | 21.3% | 18.4% | L14 Days | 9.1% | 0.0% | -18.2% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | L2 Years | 28.6% | 16.7% | 11.4% | 2017 | 27.3% | 20.0% | 9.3% | Road | 24.4% | 4.3% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 0.0% | -2.0% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 37.0% | 13.0% | 20.9% | 2017 | 39.5% | 13.7% | 26.4% | Road | 34.3% | 14.0% | 16.6% | L14 Days | 37.9% | 0.0% | 24.1% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 31.7% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 2017 | 29.6% | 9.1% | 5.7% | Home | 32.7% | 10.8% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 0.0% | 6.3% |
| Jeff Hoffman | Rockies | L2 Years | 33.0% | 12.4% | 13.6% | 2017 | 32.4% | 8.8% | 13.4% | Home | 36.5% | 10.9% | 18.9% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 12.5% | -6.7% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 30.0% | 13.9% | 10.6% | 2017 | 28.1% | 16.7% | 6.2% | Road | 30.1% | 16.4% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 9.1% | 8.6% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 31.1% | 12.8% | 11.4% | 2017 | 28.6% | 14.4% | 6.8% | Home | 27.8% | 7.1% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 6.2% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 31.8% | 14.0% | 10.4% | 2017 | 32.1% | 14.1% | 10.7% | Home | 31.9% | 13.5% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 35.5% | 28.6% | 12.9% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 26.6% | 13.3% | 6.2% | 2017 | 26.5% | 17.0% | 4.7% | Home | 27.0% | 13.3% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 23.5% | 7.4% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 28.7% | 12.7% | 9.0% | 2017 | 25.0% | 9.8% | 4.2% | Road | 29.4% | 15.0% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 0.0% | 2.9% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 28.3% | 12.1% | 8.3% | 2017 | 27.1% | 12.6% | 7.1% | Road | 30.8% | 15.3% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 11.1% | 18.2% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.3% | 16.4% | 10.4% | 2017 | 29.7% | 16.7% | 8.1% | Road | 30.3% | 20.6% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 0.0% | 1.9% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 29.5% | 12.7% | 8.7% | 2017 | 28.0% | 11.8% | 8.2% | Road | 32.0% | 12.8% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 48.0% | 44.4% | 44.0% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 32.2% | 16.2% | 13.0% | 2017 | 30.6% | 19.6% | 9.7% | Home | 34.2% | 15.0% | 15.4% | L14 Days | 39.3% | 9.1% | 14.3% |
| Mike Pelfrey | White Sox | L2 Years | 30.7% | 12.6% | 9.9% | 2017 | 29.7% | 14.6% | 7.5% | Home | 32.3% | 19.8% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 20.0% | 21.4% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | L2 Years | 29.1% | 16.9% | 10.2% | 2017 | 28.3% | 17.8% | 7.4% | Home | 33.0% | 20.6% | 12.2% | L14 Days | |||
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 35.1% | 15.5% | 18.9% | 2017 | 32.7% | 15.7% | 15.0% | Road | 34.0% | 20.0% | 15.8% | L14 Days | 29.3% | 6.7% | 9.8% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Angels | L2 Years | 35.0% | 14.4% | 20.8% | 2017 | 37.0% | 18.8% | 22.6% | Home | 31.2% | 11.6% | 15.0% | L14 Days | 31.7% | 9.1% | 17.1% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 33.5% | 12.0% | 15.8% | 2017 | 33.3% | 9.7% | 16.5% | Home | 32.7% | 10.0% | 16.2% | L14 Days | 35.6% | 12.5% | 17.8% |
| Steven Matz | Mets | L2 Years | 30.0% | 14.3% | 9.2% | 2017 | 33.1% | 16.4% | 13.5% | Road | 27.2% | 10.2% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 38.7% | 16.7% | 25.8% |
| Lucas Sims | Braves | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2017 | Home | L14 Days |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angels | Home | 29.0% | 13.4% | 10.4% | RH | 31.1% | 13.6% | 11.7% | L7Days | 30.0% | 11.3% | 11.1% |
| Yankees | Home | 30.6% | 20.2% | 10.2% | RH | 31.8% | 16.9% | 13.1% | L7Days | 29.0% | 23.1% | 11.4% |
| Red Sox | Home | 35.2% | 8.8% | 16.9% | RH | 34.0% | 10.5% | 15.8% | L7Days | 29.6% | 9.8% | 7.6% |
| Brewers | Home | 37.3% | 18.5% | 17.7% | RH | 33.3% | 18.9% | 14.1% | L7Days | 29.3% | 12.7% | 13.3% |
| Tigers | Road | 35.3% | 11.9% | 18.2% | LH | 40.8% | 16.7% | 25.3% | L7Days | 37.4% | 7.5% | 21.3% |
| Astros | Home | 31.3% | 15.4% | 13.8% | RH | 33.9% | 16.0% | 16.4% | L7Days | 33.5% | 9.9% | 15.0% |
| Nationals | Road | 31.5% | 15.5% | 13.1% | LH | 31.6% | 15.3% | 11.6% | L7Days | 36.1% | 21.5% | 23.3% |
| Indians | Road | 35.0% | 11.4% | 18.4% | LH | 31.9% | 12.3% | 14.0% | L7Days | 33.8% | 14.5% | 18.1% |
| Royals | Road | 32.5% | 14.4% | 13.1% | RH | 32.2% | 12.2% | 13.1% | L7Days | 37.1% | 9.1% | 19.7% |
| Rangers | Home | 36.1% | 17.0% | 17.9% | RH | 34.2% | 17.6% | 15.0% | L7Days | 38.2% | 18.3% | 23.1% |
| Pirates | Home | 29.7% | 9.5% | 8.4% | RH | 30.0% | 10.5% | 9.1% | L7Days | 27.1% | 11.9% | 8.5% |
| Orioles | Home | 30.8% | 15.9% | 10.1% | RH | 32.0% | 15.5% | 11.3% | L7Days | 39.4% | 12.5% | 17.0% |
| Reds | Road | 30.6% | 13.4% | 11.4% | RH | 29.8% | 14.2% | 9.3% | L7Days | 30.8% | 8.6% | 10.2% |
| Mets | Road | 36.6% | 15.2% | 19.3% | RH | 35.0% | 12.9% | 17.8% | L7Days | 36.2% | 10.7% | 21.7% |
| Athletics | Home | 31.7% | 15.0% | 16.7% | RH | 33.2% | 14.8% | 16.4% | L7Days | 31.6% | 8.8% | 14.0% |
| Twins | Road | 30.2% | 11.8% | 11.8% | RH | 33.0% | 12.3% | 16.1% | L7Days | 30.3% | 5.9% | 11.4% |
| Cardinals | Road | 31.9% | 13.3% | 14.2% | RH | 31.4% | 13.2% | 12.1% | L7Days | 24.5% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 30.8% | 13.6% | 10.5% | LH | 32.3% | 15.1% | 15.0% | L7Days | 32.2% | 15.7% | 17.1% |
| Padres | Home | 28.9% | 12.9% | 7.4% | RH | 28.9% | 13.9% | 7.3% | L7Days | 34.0% | 12.7% | 16.3% |
| Braves | Home | 28.9% | 12.1% | 9.1% | RH | 30.7% | 11.4% | 12.1% | L7Days | 33.7% | 12.9% | 17.7% |
| White Sox | Home | 28.6% | 13.4% | 6.9% | RH | 30.8% | 13.5% | 11.5% | L7Days | 24.7% | 15.9% | 1.2% |
| Marlins | Home | 31.3% | 14.9% | 9.6% | RH | 32.0% | 14.9% | 12.1% | L7Days | 31.8% | 14.9% | 15.0% |
| Rays | Road | 32.8% | 17.1% | 13.0% | RH | 35.7% | 18.0% | 17.8% | L7Days | 28.0% | 20.7% | 1.2% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 31.5% | 14.6% | 12.6% | RH | 30.8% | 15.0% | 11.0% | L7Days | 31.7% | 19.4% | 16.7% |
| Mariners | Road | 32.0% | 11.7% | 14.1% | RH | 30.4% | 12.8% | 12.2% | L7Days | 34.9% | 10.4% | 18.4% |
| Cubs | Home | 31.3% | 15.8% | 13.9% | LH | 29.7% | 17.7% | 9.6% | L7Days | 30.6% | 15.8% | 11.2% |
| Phillies | Road | 30.7% | 10.3% | 9.8% | RH | 30.4% | 12.1% | 9.9% | L7Days | 21.5% | 18.9% | -1.3% |
| Giants | Road | 30.8% | 10.8% | 10.0% | LH | 28.6% | 8.0% | 8.9% | L7Days | 24.4% | 6.8% | 4.2% |
| Rockies | Home | 32.4% | 17.1% | 13.7% | LH | 32.8% | 16.3% | 12.8% | L7Days | 30.8% | 9.1% | 11.1% |
| Dodgers | Road | 34.0% | 14.6% | 18.2% | RH | 35.8% | 15.0% | 20.2% | L7Days | 37.3% | 8.2% | 17.1% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 26.4% | 10.4% | 2.54 | 32.3% | 12.5% | 2.58 |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 20.7% | 8.5% | 2.44 | 20.8% | 7.1% | 2.93 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 27.4% | 12.7% | 2.16 | 29.3% | 13.9% | 2.11 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 25.9% | 10.7% | 2.42 | 17.6% | 9.6% | 1.83 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 18.7% | 8.7% | 2.15 | 15.0% | 8.1% | 1.85 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 29.7% | 13.6% | 2.18 | 33.1% | 16.1% | 2.06 |
| Chris O’Grady | MIA | 22.3% | 6.2% | 3.60 | 22.3% | 6.2% | 3.60 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 36.7% | 15.8% | 2.32 | 41.5% | 14.5% | 2.86 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 18.6% | 10.3% | 1.81 | 20.4% | 10.5% | 1.94 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | SEA | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.89 | 20.6% | 12.9% | 1.60 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 12.1% | 10.1% | 1.20 | 12.1% | 9.3% | 1.30 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 21.2% | 8.9% | 2.38 | 23.7% | 9.5% | 2.49 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 22.0% | 8.5% | 2.59 | 26.1% | 10.0% | 2.61 |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | 19.2% | 8.3% | 2.31 | 11.2% | 5.4% | 2.07 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 26.1% | 10.8% | 2.42 | 22.3% | 10.4% | 2.14 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 20.1% | 8.5% | 2.36 | 21.0% | 8.3% | 2.53 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 27.1% | 11.6% | 2.34 | 31.7% | 12.4% | 2.56 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 24.4% | 11.2% | 2.18 | 22.8% | 11.4% | 2.00 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 22.2% | 9.6% | 2.31 | 15.8% | 7.6% | 2.08 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 22.9% | 12.6% | 1.82 | 15.9% | 7.0% | 2.27 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 20.2% | 10.1% | 2.00 | 19.1% | 9.2% | 2.08 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 35.9% | 16.1% | 2.23 | 39.1% | 16.7% | 2.34 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 24.0% | 9.6% | 2.50 | 33.6% | 9.2% | 3.65 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 15.0% | 6.7% | 2.24 | 16.7% | 7.4% | 2.26 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 12.6% | 6.3% | 2.00 | 13.6% | 5.0% | 2.72 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 20.9% | 11.0% | 1.90 | 26.4% | 13.9% | 1.90 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 18.9% | 10.9% | 1.73 | 17.2% | 11.4% | 1.51 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 23.4% | 12.7% | 1.84 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 2.25 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | 16.3% | 7.0% | 2.33 | 15.8% | 9.8% | 1.61 |
| Lucas Sims | ATL |
The only season outlier with more than a few starts is the league’s premier home run generator.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 3.17 | 3.67 | 0.5 | 3.47 | 0.3 | 3.24 | 0.07 | 2.90 | -0.27 | 1.32 | 2.98 | 1.66 | 2.9 | 1.58 | 2.09 | 0.77 |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 6.18 | 4.26 | -1.92 | 4.66 | -1.52 | 5.16 | -1.02 | 6.56 | 0.38 | 5.53 | 4.16 | -1.37 | 4.16 | -1.37 | 3.51 | -2.02 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 3.58 | 3.5 | -0.08 | 3.45 | -0.13 | 3.59 | 0.01 | 3.16 | -0.42 | 3.31 | 3.16 | -0.15 | 3.28 | -0.03 | 3.18 | -0.13 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 3.52 | 3.86 | 0.34 | 3.63 | 0.11 | 3.83 | 0.31 | 3.15 | -0.37 | 5.9 | 4.53 | -1.37 | 4.16 | -1.74 | 5.94 | 0.04 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 3.66 | 4.67 | 1.01 | 4.47 | 0.81 | 4.24 | 0.58 | 4.84 | 1.18 | 4.5 | 5.99 | 1.49 | 5.76 | 1.26 | 4.7 | 0.2 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 3.8 | 3.46 | -0.34 | 3.38 | -0.42 | 3.09 | -0.71 | 2.68 | -1.12 | 3.41 | 3.32 | -0.09 | 3.16 | -0.25 | 3.12 | -0.29 |
| Chris O’Grady | MIA | 3.68 | 5.07 | 1.39 | 5.28 | 1.6 | 4.19 | 0.51 | 7.67 | 3.99 | 3.68 | 5.07 | 1.39 | 5.28 | 1.6 | 4.19 | 0.51 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 2.37 | 2.49 | 0.12 | 2.65 | 0.28 | 1.91 | -0.46 | 2.00 | -0.37 | 1.04 | 2.13 | 1.09 | 2.7 | 1.66 | 1.45 | 0.41 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 4.53 | 4.93 | 0.4 | 5.23 | 0.7 | 5.03 | 0.5 | 5.31 | 0.78 | 8.41 | 4.68 | -3.73 | 5.44 | -2.97 | 6.3 | -2.11 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | SEA | 4.8 | 4.07 | -0.73 | 4.12 | -0.68 | 4.17 | -0.63 | 4.10 | -0.70 | 4 | 3.67 | -0.33 | 3.84 | -0.16 | 3.7 | -0.3 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 8.37 | 5.26 | -3.11 | 5.08 | -3.29 | 5.82 | -2.55 | 9.30 | 0.93 | 5.34 | 5.02 | -0.32 | 4.74 | -0.6 | 4.54 | -0.8 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 4.43 | 4.73 | 0.3 | 5.05 | 0.62 | 5.04 | 0.61 | 4.94 | 0.51 | 3.68 | 4.02 | 0.34 | 4.17 | 0.49 | 3.49 | -0.19 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 4.03 | 3.99 | -0.04 | 3.66 | -0.37 | 3.23 | -0.8 | 3.89 | -0.14 | 7.36 | 3.44 | -3.92 | 3.18 | -4.18 | 1.62 | -5.74 |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | 5.58 | 4.72 | -0.86 | 5.03 | -0.55 | 4.19 | -1.39 | 5.86 | 0.28 | 8 | 6.09 | -1.91 | 6.53 | -1.47 | 6.3 | -1.7 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 4.85 | 3.29 | -1.56 | 3.14 | -1.71 | 3.5 | -1.35 | 3.22 | -1.63 | 5.64 | 3.75 | -1.89 | 3.79 | -1.85 | 3.87 | -1.77 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 4.22 | 4.41 | 0.19 | 4.24 | 0.02 | 4.32 | 0.1 | 4.51 | 0.29 | 2.51 | 4.68 | 2.17 | 4.28 | 1.77 | 3.88 | 1.37 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 3.38 | 3.37 | -0.01 | 3.15 | -0.23 | 3.2 | -0.18 | 3.11 | -0.27 | 3.23 | 2.81 | -0.42 | 2.42 | -0.81 | 2.95 | -0.28 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 3.88 | 3.85 | -0.03 | 3.63 | -0.25 | 3.99 | 0.11 | 3.31 | -0.57 | 4.55 | 3.7 | -0.85 | 3.57 | -0.98 | 5.32 | 0.77 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 3.76 | 4.22 | 0.46 | 4.46 | 0.7 | 3.9 | 0.14 | 3.97 | 0.21 | 5.79 | 5.01 | -0.78 | 5.31 | -0.48 | 5.25 | -0.54 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 4.09 | 4.07 | -0.02 | 4.12 | 0.03 | 3.97 | -0.12 | 4.36 | 0.27 | 3.86 | 4.95 | 1.09 | 4.7 | 0.84 | 4.27 | 0.41 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 3.08 | 3.87 | 0.79 | 3.62 | 0.54 | 3.85 | 0.77 | 3.59 | 0.51 | 2.03 | 4.72 | 2.69 | 4.16 | 2.13 | 3.47 | 1.44 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 2.23 | 2.74 | 0.51 | 3.08 | 0.85 | 2.83 | 0.6 | 2.09 | -0.14 | 2.84 | 2.77 | -0.07 | 2.59 | -0.25 | 3.18 | 0.34 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 3.71 | 4.15 | 0.44 | 4.21 | 0.5 | 4.98 | 1.27 | 5.00 | 1.29 | 2.89 | 3.43 | 0.54 | 3.81 | 0.92 | 3.76 | 0.87 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 4.73 | 5.44 | 0.71 | 5.38 | 0.65 | 5.5 | 0.77 | 5.27 | 0.54 | 6.87 | 5.79 | -1.08 | 5.5 | -1.37 | 6.58 | -0.29 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 4.56 | 5.24 | 0.68 | 5.18 | 0.62 | 5.85 | 1.29 | 6.29 | 1.73 | 7.36 | 5.58 | -1.78 | 6.4 | -0.96 | 11.06 | 3.7 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 4.36 | 4.11 | -0.25 | 3.94 | -0.42 | 4.18 | -0.18 | 5.84 | 1.48 | 3.1 | 3.74 | 0.64 | 3.48 | 0.38 | 3.29 | 0.19 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 5.07 | 4.54 | -0.53 | 4.6 | -0.47 | 5.39 | 0.32 | 6.20 | 1.13 | 5.72 | 4.52 | -1.2 | 4.37 | -1.35 | 4.31 | -1.41 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 3.82 | 4.14 | 0.32 | 4.15 | 0.33 | 3.64 | -0.18 | 3.65 | -0.17 | 3.71 | 4.44 | 0.73 | 4.63 | 0.92 | 3.85 | 0.14 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | 5.51 | 4.61 | -0.9 | 4.54 | -0.97 | 4.94 | -0.57 | 5.98 | 0.47 | 9.3 | 4.62 | -4.68 | 4.68 | -4.62 | 4.87 | -4.43 |
| Lucas Sims | ATL |
Erasmo Ramirez has a 63.8 LOB%.
Jeff Samardzija has a career high .329 BABIP (as a starter) and career low 65.6 LOB%. A 24.2 LD% is also a career high for a guy with an otherwise average liner rate for his career. He doesn’t induce a lot of popups, but is otherwise a decent contact manager and misses a lot of bats in the strike zone. So how the hell is a decent contact manager allowing so many line drives and HRs? Is this partially a launch angle problem more than a velocity one (at least in terms of the line drive rate)?
Marcus Stroman has a 79.9 LOB%.
Max Scherzer has a .236 BABIP and 83.2 LOB% that may be starting to get a bit out of line, though we regularly speak of how immaculate his BABIP profile is.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 0.297 | 0.296 | -0.001 | 48.5% | 0.192 | 7.0% | 83.8% | 86.1 | 4.90% | 29.20% | 267 |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 0.309 | 0.337 | 0.028 | 37.0% | 0.217 | 6.4% | 88.4% | 86.8 | 7.70% | 34.50% | 194 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 0.303 | 0.291 | -0.012 | 43.9% | 0.22 | 10.3% | 86.0% | 87 | 9.40% | 34.60% | 318 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.294 | 0.277 | -0.017 | 50.3% | 0.191 | 10.1% | 86.3% | 87.2 | 5.80% | 35.00% | 360 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.290 | 0.273 | -0.017 | 50.4% | 0.188 | 5.9% | 87.8% | 86 | 4.30% | 31.30% | 281 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 0.284 | 0.330 | 0.046 | 41.4% | 0.222 | 11.3% | 81.1% | 88.8 | 5.10% | 38.90% | 370 |
| Chris O’Grady | MIA | 0.293 | 0.293 | 0 | 28.3% | 0.25 | 14.3% | 88.2% | 88.9 | 6.70% | 33.30% | 60 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 0.305 | 0.287 | -0.018 | 36.3% | 0.207 | 13.5% | 77.7% | 86.4 | 5.40% | 30.40% | 332 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 0.315 | 0.270 | -0.045 | 31.4% | 0.212 | 13.8% | 85.2% | 88.3 | 8.40% | 36.90% | 358 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | SEA | 0.279 | 0.280 | 0.001 | 48.6% | 0.173 | 4.2% | 85.6% | 87.9 | 8.10% | 36.20% | 210 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 0.293 | 0.385 | 0.092 | 48.8% | 0.272 | 6.7% | 87.5% | 85.7 | 3.90% | 34.40% | 128 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 0.299 | 0.224 | -0.075 | 38.3% | 0.138 | 7.2% | 83.6% | 89.3 | 10.00% | 34.40% | 291 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 0.308 | 0.356 | 0.048 | 51.6% | 0.24 | 10.9% | 88.7% | 85.6 | 4.80% | 30.40% | 230 |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | 0.302 | 0.308 | 0.006 | 38.2% | 0.189 | 8.8% | 89.2% | 87.3 | 6.90% | 36.60% | 216 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 0.317 | 0.329 | 0.012 | 43.3% | 0.242 | 7.9% | 83.6% | 86.4 | 5.40% | 30.40% | 392 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 0.307 | 0.284 | -0.023 | 51.4% | 0.187 | 13.5% | 89.4% | 85.9 | 5.70% | 28.00% | 353 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.300 | 0.325 | 0.025 | 50.0% | 0.209 | 6.1% | 85.7% | 85.3 | 4.30% | 32.40% | 346 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.283 | 0.289 | 0.006 | 49.7% | 0.186 | 6.3% | 83.8% | 84.9 | 5.20% | 26.80% | 362 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 0.298 | 0.286 | -0.012 | 41.5% | 0.195 | 10.9% | 85.3% | 85.7 | 5.40% | 29.20% | 240 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 0.280 | 0.288 | 0.008 | 38.5% | 0.225 | 9.5% | 82.2% | 84.1 | 3.10% | 27.10% | 255 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 0.307 | 0.313 | 0.006 | 62.7% | 0.168 | 3.8% | 89.0% | 88.1 | 5.70% | 37.50% | 384 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.293 | 0.236 | -0.057 | 37.1% | 0.165 | 13.2% | 78.6% | 86.1 | 6.10% | 30.30% | 314 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 0.295 | 0.275 | -0.02 | 44.5% | 0.192 | 8.9% | 85.0% | 86.3 | 7.70% | 32.70% | 312 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 0.288 | 0.269 | -0.019 | 50.2% | 0.162 | 7.9% | 89.8% | 87.5 | 6.80% | 35.30% | 266 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 0.289 | 0.254 | -0.035 | 42.6% | 0.202 | 12.2% | 90.3% | 86.5 | 7.80% | 31.10% | 244 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 0.294 | 0.345 | 0.051 | 49.9% | 0.201 | 10.4% | 87.1% | 88.1 | 7.30% | 36.00% | 386 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 0.285 | 0.303 | 0.018 | 41.6% | 0.195 | 6.3% | 85.5% | 89.6 | 9.30% | 39.60% | 376 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 0.292 | 0.295 | 0.003 | 45.2% | 0.186 | 5.3% | 85.3% | 88.8 | 5.40% | 39.40% | 315 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | 0.320 | 0.331 | 0.011 | 45.3% | 0.205 | 10.9% | 87.4% | 88.2 | 7.40% | 38.70% | 163 |
| Lucas Sims | ATL | 0.292 |
Chris Archer is generating a lot of hard grounders and therefore a lot of singles and some doubles down the lines probably. This is likely the cause of the elevated BABIP that we wouldn’t otherwise be able to find the reason for. Is it sustainable? Again, I’m asking because I don’t know.
Jameson Taillon has a .333 or higher BABIP in each of his last five starts. He has a high line drive rate, but Statcast believes him a strong contact manager. Line drive rates are fickle.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
While there’s a bit of a gap between tiers for me today, there’s very little separation amid each tier.
Value Tier One
Max Scherzer (1) is one of the top two pitchers on the slate and maybe in the majors right now. With very similar price tags, the key difference is in matchup. His is superior to Sale’s.
Jon Lester (4) is not someone you’d normally think would have much of a presence on this kind of board. He’s considered a solid yet unspectacular daily fantasy pitcher, more low risk than high upside. That may again be the case here and the Diamondbacks may now be a bit better than their season to date numbers on the road and against LHP, but he’s still less than $10K in a spot it’s tough to call difficult aside from just a few RH batters. He’s strangely been allowing a couple of bombs, but otherwise stifling contact completely over the last month or so.
Aaron Nola (3) has been pitching like a stud for over a month now. He’s gone at least six innings with seven strikeouts in every one of his last seven starts and seven or more with at least eight strikeouts five times. He still costs less than $10K.
Value Tier Two
Carlos Martinez (5t) is right around $9K in a dangerous, but high upside spot in Milwaukee. While he’s had some struggles lately and there are certain batters who may profile well against him, he’s been keeping the ball on the ground for the most part and missing more bats the last couple of times out.
Jameson Taillon is allowing a lot of hits, but not a lot of hard contact. That turned into nine runs in his last start, which may be a blessing as he costs just $8K (or less) in a favorable spot at home against a struggling Cincinnati offense.
Chris Sale (2) is in a tough spot in a virtual tie for the highest cost on the board. The plate discipline numbers for the Tribe against LHP and over the last week in particular are unheard of. That said, I’d still project him for the second highest strikeout rate tonight. Only twice in his last 20 starts has he failed to strike out at least nine and only five times in 21 starts has he not gone seven innings.
Carlos Carrasco (5t) is a very good pitcher among some elite arms today. While the park is unfavorable, the opponent has been poor enough that it represents something of a neutral spot. What he benefits from in run prevention or power suppression, he might lose in strikeout upside, though he has some of that to spare and still be useful tonight in a spot where he costs less than $10K.
Jeff Samardzija has some issues that don’t have immediately obvious causes and he may be one of the riskier pitchers on this slate, but the bottom line is that you’re getting an elite K-BB% in a high upside spot for less than $9K.
Jimmy Nelson has been a high upside pitcher over the last two months in a spot that doesn’t really concern you much tonight at a very reasonable price (below $8K on DraftKings). One thing to keep in mind though is that he’s allowed three or four runs in six innings or less as many times as he’s struck out at least 10 over this stretch (five times).
Chris Archer (5t) missed bats at an elite rate in July. While we don’t know if he’ll be able to keep most of the hard contact on the ground, I’ve been wavering between tiers with him today, but ultimately decided to bump him up because he’s less than $10K in a spot that may represent lower risk against a less imposing Houston offense right now. Note that still doesn’t make it a favorable spot.
Value Tier Three
Marcus Stroman is a good pitcher in perhaps a great spot, but how the hell is he the third most expensive pitcher on DraftKings on this board? He bumps up a bit on FanDuel.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Erasmo Ramirez will likely be on a low pitch limit, but you likely need a cheap SP2 on DraftKings and he’s not much more than the minimum. Texas is a difficult place to pitch, but the Rangers will strike out a bit and there are really no other cheapies I’d even entertain tonight.
Sean Manaea is in a great spot at a low cost, but it’s not a high strikeout upside one and his own bat missing tendencies have greatly decreased recently as he goes deeper into games. Intentional or not, I’m not sure what to expect from him right now.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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