Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, August 21st
A scratch and another injury, but our top pitcher rolled at least on Monday, while the min-priced replacement for the scratch changed a few things as well. We have no less than 30 pitchers to run through on a full slate tonight and a lack of high end arms as well. Let’s do some work (and it will be work today).
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Jurado | Rangers | 3.7 | 5.37 | 5.2 | 52.7% | 0.95 | 5.46 | 5.31 | Athletics | 96 | 107 | 121 |
| Blake Snell | Rays | -0.6 | 4.22 | 5.4 | 42.3% | 0.94 | 3.93 | 2.16 | Royals | 82 | 77 | 95 |
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | 1.7 | 4.69 | 4.5 | 52.0% | 0.95 | 4.29 | 3.27 | Rangers | 86 | 100 | 97 |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | -4.7 | 4.81 | 5.2 | 41.8% | 0.91 | 4.40 | Mets | 78 | 98 | 128 | |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | 3.70 | 5.4 | 35.0% | 0.91 | 4.21 | 3.70 | Mariners | 97 | 102 | 77 | |
| Daniel Poncedeleon | Cardinals | 5.74 | 7.0 | 31.9% | 0.90 | 6.14 | 6.10 | Dodgers | 106 | 113 | 128 | |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | -7.9 | 4.30 | 5.8 | 33.6% | 1.01 | 4.31 | 5.56 | Blue Jays | 101 | 102 | 111 |
| Felix Pena | Angels | 3.5 | 4.17 | 4.7 | 38.8% | 1.00 | 5.29 | 4.30 | Diamondbacks | 96 | 89 | 134 |
| Glenn Sparkman | Royals | 4.1 | 4.53 | 4.0 | 40.5% | 0.94 | 4.54 | 4.74 | Rays | 103 | 97 | 83 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | -4.9 | 4.08 | 5.1 | 46.9% | 0.90 | 3.56 | 2.73 | Cardinals | 104 | 105 | 92 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | -0.1 | 4.29 | 5.9 | 46.9% | 0.97 | 4.13 | 4.98 | Braves | 105 | 96 | 101 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 3.4 | 4.86 | 5.3 | 32.9% | 1.02 | 4.89 | 5.06 | Cubs | 97 | 102 | 63 |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | -0.1 | 4.23 | 5.8 | 40.4% | 0.96 | 4.92 | 5.87 | White Sox | 95 | 94 | 124 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 6.2 | 4.73 | 5.1 | 39.2% | 1.04 | 4.56 | 4.91 | Reds | 95 | 95 | 117 |
| Kevin Gausman | Braves | 2.7 | 4.25 | 5.8 | 45.3% | 0.97 | 4.40 | 3.81 | Pirates | 98 | 97 | 81 |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 7.6 | 3.98 | 5.9 | 47.4% | 1.02 | 3.76 | 3.29 | Tigers | 89 | 78 | 102 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 7.4 | 3.57 | 5.9 | 48.7% | 0.90 | 3.69 | 4.59 | Marlins | 80 | 83 | 115 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | -1.6 | 4.25 | 6.0 | 51.7% | 0.91 | 4.05 | 3.96 | Astros | 114 | 103 | 101 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Red Sox | 7.9 | 3.78 | 5.7 | 44.5% | 1.12 | 3.58 | 4.80 | Indians | 99 | 107 | 84 |
| Pablo Lopez | Marlins | -0.8 | 4.00 | 5.9 | 52.1% | 0.90 | 3.87 | 4.08 | Yankees | 100 | 110 | 123 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 0.2 | 3.54 | 6.0 | 50.7% | 1.00 | 3.17 | 2.30 | Angels | 101 | 86 | 116 |
| Robbie Erlin | Padres | -4.7 | 3.35 | 4.6 | 50.2% | 1.35 | 3.01 | 4.82 | Rockies | 86 | 99 | 79 |
| Sal Romano | Reds | -2.2 | 4.82 | 5.3 | 47.1% | 1.04 | 4.80 | 5.36 | Brewers | 95 | 93 | 98 |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | -5.2 | 4.47 | 5.1 | 47.7% | 1.01 | 4.16 | 3.70 | Orioles | 78 | 92 | 93 |
| Shane Bieber | Indians | 6.1 | 3.59 | 5.7 | 43.9% | 1.12 | 3.87 | 3.62 | Red Sox | 117 | 117 | 78 |
| Steven Matz | Mets | -6.1 | 4.46 | 5.0 | 48.3% | 0.91 | 3.82 | 5.37 | Giants | 76 | 88 | 30 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | -3.7 | 4.41 | 6.0 | 45.1% | 1.00 | 4.09 | 5.18 | Phillies | 85 | 92 | 91 |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | -0.9 | 4.17 | 5.6 | 41.5% | 1.35 | 4.00 | 4.36 | Padres | 78 | 91 | 77 |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | -8 | 4.13 | 5.1 | 39.7% | 1.00 | 4.59 | 6.71 | Nationals | 105 | 98 | 85 |
| Michael Kopech | White Sox | -4.8 | 0.96 | Twins | 83 | 97 | 131 |
Blake Snell has allowed one run over 14 innings since returning from the DL, striking out 15 of 48 batters, but maxing out at 76 pitches last time out. His 28.5 K% is second best among those with more than seven starts this year, as are his .292 xwOBA and 86.3 mph aEV. A strong argument can be made that he’s the best overall pitcher on the board and in one of the top park adjusted spots against the Royals (77 wRC+, 16.3 K-BB%, 8.2 HR/FB vs LHP, the first and last of those numbers both split worsts today). The issue is workload potential. Can we hope for six innings and 90 pitches?
Hyun-Jin Ryu threw six shutout innings, striking out six of 21 Giants faced in his first major league start in over three months last time out. He threw 89 pitches. Another pitcher we may not expect to go very deep, but with some great rate stats. His 30.9 K% actually tops the board, though the 10.6 SwStr% suggests something closer to league average. His .270 xwOBA is lowest on the board too, backed by an 86.5 mph aEV that’s tied for fourth best. All of this is small sample size too with just seven starts, but such are our choices today. On top of all that, the Cardinals are a very difficult and dangerous offense against LHP (11.4 K-BB%, 16.5 HR/FB), but they are in one of the most negative run environments in baseball and he has a fairly sizable reverse split both this season and for his career.
Jose Berrios has been absolutely terrible over his last four starts (19.1 IP – 12 ER – 2 HR – 14 BB – 21 K). That includes one start of seven innings with just two runs against the Royals too. He did not finish five innings in any of the other three. He’s allowed at least three runs in 12 of his 25 starts this year and while he’s completed seven innings in just as many this season, he’s failed to reach five innings seven times too. The bottom line is he has the talent to give you seven innings in a great spot (White Sox 19+ K-BB on the road and vs RHP).
Kevin Gausman struck out eight Brewers in eight innings two starts back. In his other two starts for the Braves, he’s struck out a total of four batters. Those were against the Marlins and Mets. This is concerning because he struck out exactly two batters in three of his last five starts for the Orioles as well. The Pirates also have just a 19.6 K% vs RHP, though they seem to occasionally pile up strikeouts in matchups you might not expect. The other thing is that there’s just one pitcher above a 24 K% in a decent strikeout matchup tonight. He’s allowed six runs in 19 innings for the Braves, is in a favorable park and received a massive defensive upgrade with this trade. This includes a 31 point team defense BABIP improvement alone.
Kyle Hendricks has a 28.8 K% over the last month that’s third highest on the board. His 10.5 SwStr% over that span is a bit more suspect, but still at least above average and has brought his season strikeout rate above 20% as well now. Run prevention over the last month has not been ideal, but that’s due to a .363 BABIP. His .247 xwOBA over the last 30 days is one of the best marks on the board and his 85.3 mph aEV for the season is tonight’s top mark. He’s in a great spot against the Tigers (78 wRC+, 8.4 HR/FB vs RHP).
Masahiro Tanaka generally carries some risk, but has the second highest swinging strike rate (13.6%) and only three pitchers with more than seven starts have a higher strikeout rate than his 25.3%. Tonight, he gets a massive park bump and finds himself in one of the top matchups (Marlins 80 wRC+, 8.6 HR/FB at home).
Pablo Lopez has a nearly league average strikeout rate and an above average swinging strike one through eight starts. He’s completed six innings in five of those starts, recording at least a sixth inning out in seven of them. He has allowed eight HRs and his 8.5% Barrels/BBE is one of the higher numbers on the board, but his 86.4 mph aEV is one of the lowest, along with a 52.1 GB%. He faces the Yankees tonight, but does so in a great park where they lose their DH.
Patrick Corbin is the top pitcher on the board. He leads in strikeout rate (30.7%) among those with more than seven starts, has the only sub-three SIERA (2.91) and the best xwOBA (.288) with more than seven starts as well. He’s gone at least seven innings in three of his last five starts and two straight. The Angels have just a 20.5 K% vs LHP, but still just an 86 wRC+ against them and, of course, the most important thing…no Trout.
Vince Velasquez has the third highest strikeout rate on the board (26.3%) among those with more than seven starts, along with the fourth best xwOBA (.302) among that group. However, the strikeout rate is down to 20.9% over the last month and his he’s failed to strike out more than he’s walked or exceed five innings in three of his last four starts. The Washington lineup is deep and has just a 10.5 K-BB% vs RHP, but just can’t seem to put it all together for an extended run.
Michael Kopech was the #15 prospect in baseball the last time Fangraphs updated their rankings in June. He has an electric fastball and a slider that may already be above average, which have led to a 31.3 K% in 24 AAA starts this season. The Twins are one of the hottest offenses in baseball (131 wRC+ last seven days) and not a lineup that offers too much upside (21.6 K% vs RHP).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.290 BABIP – 72.8 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Junior Guerra (.287 – 77.5% – 12.5 – 8.8% unearned run rate) is who we thought he was. His ERA is closing in on his estimators and while it’s not all the way there yet and none of the quoted numbers are all that outrageous, there’s still probably room for a bit more regression, considering he’s not really a great contact manager in a difficult park.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Mike Leake threw eight shutout innings at the A’s last time out and has now thrown six straight quality starts (at least six innings with no more than three runs). He’s recorded a seventh inning out in 11 of 25 starts and has done a great job of rebounding this season after allowing some of the hardest contact in the league early on. Over this six start span, he has a 49.6 GB% and 26.2 Hard%. He does not accumulate the strikeouts and he’s facing a difficult offense (Astros 11 K-BB% vs RHP), but he does so in a very negative run environment. If Springer and Altuve are both out tonight, I may consider him in an SP2 spot on DraftKings for less than $7K. Unfortunately, you probably won’t know that until after the earliest games lock.
Shane Bieber is nearly interesting here. He’s in possibly the worst park adjusted matchup on the board at Fenway against a very contact prone offense with an 89 mph aEV, but he costs just above $7K and has some massive platoon splits with a 19.1 K-BB% and the most potent bats for the home team coming at him from the right side. Ultimately, it’s too dangerous a spot and they do have a couple of LHBs that can do damage.
Steven Matz may be in the top park adjusted spot tonight (Giants 76 wRC+, 17.2 K-BB% on the road, 30 wRC+, 21.5 K-BB%, 1.9 HR/FB last seven days), but has allowed 22 runs over his last 13.2 innings. Nine of his 16 strikeouts over that span came in one start. If I truly knew he were healthy, he might be worth a shot in this spot.
Glenn Sparkman lasted four innings and a season high 75 pitches in his first start of the season. He did have a 16 SwStr% and has an 11.9 SwStr% on the season despite just an 18.7 K%. It does make him slightly interesting in a decent spot in Tampa Bay at a low price, but his board low 4.6% Barrels/BBE does not fit his 89.7 mph aEV (tied for third worst). The last time he exceeded a 19 K% was 2016 in AA. He’s been through eight different stops since then.
Robbie Erlin hasn’t been bad in his three starts against some difficult offenses (Cubs, Brewers, Angels), but has struck out just nine in 16 innings and is at Coors tonight. He does cost nearly the minimum on DraftKings, but that may not be low enough tonight.
Ivan Nova has a low strikeout rate and high aEV. Somehow, even with a poor defense behind him, this hasn’t led to total disaster for him. He is fairly cheap in a decent park against an offense without much power (10.9 HR/FB vs RHP), but the Braves may even further lower his strikeout upside tonight (20.4 K% vs RHP). He’s exceeded three strikeouts just once in his last nine starts, but he could give you six innings or more.
Tanner Roark has allowed four runs in 29.2 innings over four starts before bombing in St Louis last time out (three walks, one strikeout). He’s not struck out two or less in two of his last three starts. He still manages league contact well, but I have no idea who he is now from a strikeout perspective and the Philadelphia lineup is a bit deeper with trade deadline acquisitions.
Daniel Poncedeleon threw seven no-hit innings in Cincinnati in his major league debut, but both struck out and walked three batters and wasn’t demoted to the minors, but the bullpen afterward. The 26 year-old has just a 15.2 K%, but a 12.2 SwStr% to go along with a 13.6 BB%. He struck out 26.3% of AAA batters in 92 AAA innings this season, but also with a 12.3 BB%. He has excelled at generating weak contact through his first 17 major league innings though (85.7 mph aEV, 21.3% 95+ mph EV). Four of his 21 fly balls have been popups.
Brett Anderson has thrown seven or more shutout innings in two of his last three starts, but with just two strikeouts each time and a 36 Hard-Soft% in the most recent of those efforts. His 54.3 GB% is second best on the board, but his .366 xwOBA is third worst (8.9% Barrels/BBE is second worst despite the high ground ball rate). It’s not a terrible spot, catching the Rangers, who add some strikeout upside (23.2% vs LHP, 26% on the road), at home.
Jordan Zimmermann has stopped missing bats and faces one of the best disciplined offenses in baseball (11.4 K-BB% vs RHP).
Nathan Eovaldi has been both great and terrible in just a four start span for the Red Sox. He faces a quality offense in a terrible park tonight. Fenway and Coors are easily the two worst spots tonight.
Dylan Bundy is worst on the slate with a 9.7% Barrels/BBE. Maybe it works when he’s striking out nearly 30% of batters, but that is no longer nearly the case. His strikeout rate is below 18% since the start of July.
Sam Gaviglio does have a league average strikeout rate and is in a nice spot against the Orioles (16.3 K-BB% vs RHP, 18.8 K-BB% on the road), but has completed six innings with three runs or less in just three of 17 starts.
Felix Pena allows a lot of hard contact with a cratering strikeout rate as well, though he did get seven of 23 Padres last time out, which is just one less than his previous four outings combined.
Chris Stratton has allowed two runs in 13 innings (both solo HRs), striking out 10 of 50 batters since being demoted. His major league number are very unimpressive this season, including the second highest aEV on the board (90.5 mph). He is cheap in an extremely negative run environment though.
Collin McHugh will not start. It will be Brad Peacock instead. The Astros are last to release their lineups on the west coast, often after the first games have locked and now they are last to name a starter as well. The good news is that it was expected to be a full bullpen effort either way and Peacock has not reached 40 pitches in an outing all season. Three innings against a contact prone offense (20.1 K% vs RHP) is the high end here.
Tyler Anderson has not had a good month and faces the Padres from their more potent side at Coors.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Jurado | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 9.7% | 8.0% | 21.4% | 33.3% | Season | 9.7% | 8.0% | 21.4% | 33.3% | Road | 7.6% | 9.1% | 29.4% | 25.5% | L14Days | 8.2% | 8.2% | 50.0% | 31.7% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Yrs | 25.1% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 13.4% | Season | 28.5% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 13.9% | Home | 25.6% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 16.5% | L14Days | 36.4% | 3.0% | -10.0% | |
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 13.1% | 6.6% | 14.4% | 16.4% | Season | 11.7% | 4.8% | 14.9% | 20.5% | Home | 11.8% | 5.9% | 12.1% | 20.2% | L14Days | 13.0% | 14.3% | 40.0% | |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | L2 Yrs | 18.5% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 22.7% | Season | 17.8% | 9.2% | 13.7% | 31.0% | Road | 21.1% | 10.3% | 15.3% | 23.8% | L14Days | ||||
| Collin McHugh | Astros | L2 Yrs | 25.7% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 13.0% | Season | 34.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 11.7% | Road | 27.2% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 19.2% | L14Days | 23.1% | 7.7% | -12.5% | |
| Daniel Poncedeleon | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 15.2% | 13.6% | 9.5% | 12.7% | Season | 15.2% | 13.6% | 9.5% | 12.7% | Road | 11.1% | 16.7% | -7.7% | L14Days | 12.5% | 12.5% | 11.1% | 5.6% | |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 22.7% | 7.9% | 14.2% | 17.2% | Season | 24.2% | 7.2% | 17.0% | 19.0% | Road | 24.5% | 7.9% | 14.3% | 22.6% | L14Days | 14.8% | 7.4% | 13.6% | 12.2% |
| Felix Pena | Angels | L2 Yrs | 24.0% | 10.4% | 15.1% | 21.8% | Season | 21.9% | 9.8% | 14.6% | 23.5% | Road | 21.0% | 12.6% | 18.4% | 17.4% | L14Days | 23.9% | 8.7% | 14.3% | 16.6% |
| Glenn Sparkman | Royals | L2 Yrs | 17.5% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 22.7% | Season | 18.7% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 24.6% | Road | 21.1% | 13.2% | 14.3% | 12.0% | L14Days | 14.3% | 5.7% | 10.0% | 29.6% |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 23.3% | 8.1% | 17.1% | 17.6% | Season | 30.9% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 18.0% | Home | 24.8% | 7.1% | 17.9% | 15.2% | L14Days | 28.6% | 13.3% | ||
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 17.0% | 4.3% | 14.4% | 16.5% | Season | 16.3% | 4.8% | 14.4% | 16.0% | Home | 15.2% | 4.0% | 10.3% | 12.7% | L14Days | 12.0% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 16.6% | 5.9% | 13.2% | 23.1% | Season | 20.7% | 4.3% | 12.9% | 17.4% | Home | 17.0% | 4.4% | 11.7% | 25.6% | L14Days | 9.8% | 10.5% | 30.4% | |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Yrs | 22.6% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 10.5% | Season | 24.7% | 6.9% | 12.3% | 13.2% | Road | 20.1% | 8.9% | 14.5% | 12.7% | L14Days | 20.9% | 18.6% | 28.6% | 24.0% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 21.2% | 10.9% | 15.1% | 19.7% | Season | 21.7% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 22.8% | Home | 23.3% | 11.2% | 15.3% | 15.7% | L14Days | 10.6% | 8.5% | 25.0% | 7.9% |
| Kevin Gausman | Braves | L2 Yrs | 20.7% | 7.2% | 14.4% | 14.2% | Season | 19.0% | 5.9% | 15.4% | 14.1% | Road | 19.2% | 7.5% | 12.8% | 12.7% | L14Days | 18.9% | 3.8% | 9.1% | 19.5% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 21.4% | 6.2% | 13.6% | 8.1% | Season | 20.4% | 6.0% | 15.3% | 8.5% | Road | 20.8% | 6.0% | 14.0% | 6.2% | L14Days | 24.5% | 3.8% | -5.4% | |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 25.0% | 5.7% | 20.0% | 13.1% | Season | 25.3% | 6.3% | 20.4% | 19.9% | Road | 24.1% | 6.2% | 23.3% | 16.7% | L14Days | 16.7% | 6.3% | 21.4% | 24.3% |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 16.0% | 4.8% | 12.2% | 16.5% | Season | 15.0% | 4.8% | 11.8% | 18.6% | Home | 16.2% | 4.1% | 14.1% | 15.4% | L14Days | 19.2% | 3.9% | 12.5% | |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 21.1% | 3.5% | 13.6% | 14.7% | Season | 21.1% | 3.5% | 13.6% | 14.7% | Home | 25.7% | 2.7% | 8.3% | 18.8% | L14Days | 11.6% | 4.7% | 11.1% | 25.0% |
| Pablo Lopez | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 19.6% | 6.2% | 20.0% | 15.6% | Season | 19.6% | 6.2% | 20.0% | 15.6% | Home | 18.3% | 6.7% | 21.1% | 13.0% | L14Days | 19.2% | 5.8% | 18.2% | 15.7% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 25.7% | 6.9% | 13.5% | 16.9% | Season | 30.7% | 6.0% | 10.2% | 23.9% | Home | 26.0% | 6.7% | 9.9% | 18.8% | L14Days | 31.4% | 8.6% | ||
| Robbie Erlin | Padres | L2 Yrs | 20.2% | 2.7% | 10.4% | 10.7% | Season | 20.2% | 2.7% | 10.4% | 10.7% | Road | 22.5% | 3.1% | 12.0% | 11.4% | L14Days | 10.6% | 2.1% | 14.6% | |
| Sal Romano | Reds | L2 Yrs | 17.3% | 9.0% | 14.2% | 15.4% | Season | 16.0% | 8.6% | 15.7% | 18.3% | Road | 14.9% | 7.8% | 11.2% | 14.0% | L14Days | 15.8% | 13.2% | 42.3% | |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 18.8% | 7.7% | 18.7% | 17.8% | Season | 21.3% | 7.2% | 16.5% | 19.6% | Home | 21.0% | 9.1% | 13.6% | 14.3% | L14Days | 20.9% | 2.3% | 10.0% | 42.4% |
| Shane Bieber | Indians | L2 Yrs | 24.2% | 5.1% | 9.7% | 32.5% | Season | 24.2% | 5.1% | 9.7% | 32.5% | Road | 21.9% | 6.0% | 11.4% | 29.9% | L14Days | 27.7% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 23.3% |
| Steven Matz | Mets | L2 Yrs | 19.1% | 7.8% | 17.1% | 13.1% | Season | 21.0% | 8.7% | 17.1% | 14.6% | Home | 21.7% | 7.1% | 28.4% | 19.9% | L14Days | 14.3% | 7.1% | 50.0% | 10.0% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 20.7% | 8.4% | 12.0% | 10.5% | Season | 19.8% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 9.3% | Home | 21.9% | 6.9% | 14.7% | 6.2% | L14Days | 13.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 17.7% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 22.2% | 7.8% | 16.1% | 9.3% | Season | 22.4% | 8.7% | 15.4% | 11.7% | Home | 23.3% | 8.3% | 13.0% | 5.9% | L14Days | 21.7% | 8.7% | 23.1% | 31.2% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 24.9% | 9.6% | 14.6% | 18.5% | Season | 26.3% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 16.0% | Road | 20.4% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 21.0% | L14Days | 11.8% | 17.7% | 27.3% | |
| Michael Kopech | White Sox | L2 Yrs | Season | Home | L14Days |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics | Home | 22.0% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 26.1% | RH | 21.8% | 8.3% | 13.0% | 23.9% | L7Days | 21.0% | 8.6% | 14.3% | 23.8% |
| Royals | Road | 22.2% | 6.7% | 11.0% | 15.1% | LH | 23.5% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 16.6% | L7Days | 23.4% | 8.2% | 13.1% | 16.6% |
| Rangers | Road | 26.0% | 8.5% | 13.4% | 15.7% | LH | 23.2% | 9.1% | 13.1% | 16.2% | L7Days | 19.4% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 19.8% |
| Mets | Home | 23.8% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 11.6% | RH | 21.7% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 16.3% | L7Days | 20.7% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 17.8% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.9% | 6.6% | 12.7% | 7.7% | RH | 20.1% | 6.6% | 13.6% | 14.8% | L7Days | 24.0% | 5.7% | 10.2% | 10.0% |
| Dodgers | Home | 23.4% | 9.7% | 14.4% | 18.3% | RH | 22.2% | 9.9% | 15.6% | 18.6% | L7Days | 18.7% | 14.2% | 13.2% | 16.4% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 22.2% | 8.3% | 13.7% | 13.1% | RH | 22.7% | 9.0% | 13.8% | 16.7% | L7Days | 21.2% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 21.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 23.0% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 26.1% | RH | 23.6% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 20.0% | L7Days | 24.5% | 11.5% | 20.0% | 25.7% |
| Rays | Home | 22.0% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 16.4% | RH | 22.1% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 15.9% | L7Days | 21.8% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 17.2% |
| Cardinals | Road | 22.9% | 9.2% | 16.3% | 19.2% | LH | 21.1% | 9.7% | 16.5% | 24.7% | L7Days | 19.8% | 9.7% | 13.7% | 28.4% |
| Braves | Road | 20.4% | 7.6% | 13.2% | 18.0% | RH | 20.4% | 7.7% | 10.9% | 18.6% | L7Days | 19.2% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 24.4% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.0% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 15.2% | RH | 20.9% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 13.3% | L7Days | 25.0% | 7.6% | 12.0% | 5.4% |
| White Sox | Home | 26.5% | 7.0% | 12.5% | 6.5% | RH | 25.8% | 6.6% | 14.1% | 11.8% | L7Days | 23.8% | 6.4% | 16.4% | 19.1% |
| Reds | Road | 19.9% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 16.5% | RH | 21.5% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 20.1% | L7Days | 24.7% | 6.3% | 14.8% | 29.3% |
| Pirates | Home | 19.5% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 6.1% | RH | 19.7% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 12.1% | L7Days | 21.5% | 9.0% | 4.1% | -2.3% |
| Tigers | Home | 20.6% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 24.0% | RH | 22.2% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 18.2% | L7Days | 21.9% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 23.7% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.5% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 16.3% | RH | 22.5% | 6.9% | 11.3% | 15.5% | L7Days | 21.6% | 7.4% | 16.7% | 16.6% |
| Astros | Road | 20.1% | 8.7% | 13.7% | 21.0% | RH | 20.2% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 15.5% | L7Days | 25.1% | 7.1% | 20.6% | 15.6% |
| Indians | Road | 19.8% | 8.0% | 12.1% | 20.0% | RH | 19.1% | 8.8% | 14.3% | 25.0% | L7Days | 16.8% | 9.8% | 14.3% | 20.1% |
| Yankees | Road | 23.8% | 8.7% | 15.1% | 17.0% | RH | 22.4% | 9.3% | 16.3% | 17.9% | L7Days | 20.8% | 10.4% | 17.6% | 14.9% |
| Angels | Road | 19.9% | 8.0% | 13.0% | 17.2% | LH | 20.5% | 8.2% | 12.4% | 17.4% | L7Days | 19.6% | 4.9% | 11.9% | 16.7% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.2% | 8.1% | 15.5% | 14.8% | LH | 21.3% | 7.9% | 16.6% | 17.0% | L7Days | 30.7% | 6.3% | 15.0% | 19.5% |
| Brewers | Home | 24.9% | 9.1% | 17.0% | 25.6% | RH | 25.1% | 8.1% | 16.0% | 17.9% | L7Days | 21.9% | 7.6% | 15.1% | 13.6% |
| Orioles | Road | 25.4% | 6.6% | 12.3% | 14.8% | RH | 23.7% | 7.4% | 14.0% | 13.8% | L7Days | 20.0% | 7.7% | 10.9% | 14.7% |
| Red Sox | Home | 18.8% | 8.4% | 13.0% | 16.4% | RH | 18.6% | 8.6% | 14.3% | 19.3% | L7Days | 18.3% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 19.7% |
| Giants | Road | 24.3% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 17.4% | LH | 21.4% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 19.3% | L7Days | 25.2% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 7.6% |
| Phillies | Road | 25.3% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 8.6% | RH | 25.4% | 9.3% | 13.9% | 9.0% | L7Days | 21.8% | 3.6% | 11.8% | 6.6% |
| Padres | Road | 25.2% | 6.8% | 11.5% | 13.7% | LH | 23.9% | 8.4% | 14.6% | 15.6% | L7Days | 26.4% | 8.6% | 14.3% | 14.9% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.7% | 9.7% | 13.5% | 11.9% | RH | 19.9% | 9.4% | 13.6% | 13.1% | L7Days | 15.4% | 5.3% | 9.1% | 15.2% |
| Twins | Road | 22.2% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 16.5% | RH | 21.6% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 21.9% | L7Days | 23.1% | 5.9% | 22.1% | 27.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.5 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Jurado | Rangers | 9.7% | 4.2% | 2.31 | 9.9% | 3.7% | 2.68 |
| Blake Snell | Rays | 28.5% | 13.5% | 2.11 | 31.3% | 14.3% | 2.19 |
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | 11.7% | 6.4% | 1.83 | 12.6% | 6.0% | 2.10 |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | 17.8% | 8.4% | 2.12 | 20.0% | 10.8% | 1.85 |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | 34.1% | 13.4% | 2.54 | 33.3% | 16.3% | 2.04 |
| Daniel Poncedeleon | Cardinals | 15.2% | 12.2% | 1.25 | 15.2% | 12.2% | 1.25 |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 24.2% | 12.6% | 1.92 | 20.0% | 10.1% | 1.98 |
| Felix Pena | Angels | 21.9% | 11.1% | 1.97 | 14.7% | 8.4% | 1.75 |
| Glenn Sparkman | Royals | 18.7% | 11.9% | 1.57 | 18.5% | 13.3% | 1.39 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | 30.9% | 10.6% | 2.92 | 28.6% | 9.0% | 3.18 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 16.3% | 8.7% | 1.87 | 9.9% | 6.9% | 1.43 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 20.7% | 9.6% | 2.16 | 14.4% | 8.3% | 1.73 |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 24.7% | 11.1% | 2.23 | 24.0% | 10.3% | 2.33 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 21.7% | 10.0% | 2.17 | 16.5% | 11.6% | 1.42 |
| Kevin Gausman | Braves | 19.0% | 10.8% | 1.76 | 15.2% | 8.0% | 1.90 |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 20.4% | 9.1% | 2.24 | 28.8% | 10.5% | 2.74 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 25.3% | 13.6% | 1.86 | 28.1% | 12.9% | 2.18 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 15.0% | 7.4% | 2.03 | 16.3% | 6.2% | 2.63 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Red Sox | 21.1% | 10.2% | 2.07 | 15.1% | 7.8% | 1.94 |
| Pablo Lopez | Marlins | 19.6% | 10.9% | 1.80 | 19.7% | 11.3% | 1.74 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 30.7% | 15.0% | 2.05 | 32.3% | 17.7% | 1.82 |
| Robbie Erlin | Padres | 20.2% | 9.1% | 2.22 | 15.8% | 8.2% | 1.93 |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 16.0% | 7.8% | 2.05 | 15.6% | 9.6% | 1.63 |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | 21.3% | 9.1% | 2.34 | 19.8% | 9.0% | 2.20 |
| Shane Bieber | Indians | 24.2% | 11.1% | 2.18 | 26.1% | 10.5% | 2.49 |
| Steven Matz | Mets | 21.0% | 8.3% | 2.53 | 21.6% | 10.1% | 2.14 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 19.8% | 8.6% | 2.30 | 20.3% | 7.8% | 2.60 |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | 22.4% | 11.4% | 1.96 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 2.10 |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | 26.3% | 11.6% | 2.27 | 20.9% | 11.2% | 1.87 |
| Michael Kopech | White Sox |
Hyun-Jin Ryu has a career strikeout rate around league average with a swinging strike rate around league average. Maybe he can be better this season, but the 30% strikeout rate seems a bit of a fluke right now.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.21 ERA – 4.2 SIERA – 4.16 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Jurado | Rangers | 6.41 | 5.37 | -1.04 | 6.41 | -1.33 | 6.28 | -0.13 | 7.32 | 0.91 | 6.14 | 5.28 | -0.86 | 4.95 | -1.19 | 6.85 | 0.71 |
| Blake Snell | Rays | 2.10 | 3.66 | 1.56 | 2.10 | 1.44 | 3.34 | 1.24 | 2.72 | 0.62 | 0.64 | 2.99 | 2.35 | 3.08 | 2.44 | 2.59 | 1.95 |
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | 3.90 | 4.55 | 0.65 | 3.90 | 0.39 | 4.54 | 0.64 | 5.06 | 1.16 | 2.27 | 4.13 | 1.86 | 3.79 | 1.52 | 4.24 | 1.97 |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | 5.52 | 4.80 | -0.72 | 5.52 | -0.98 | 4.68 | -0.84 | 5.48 | -0.04 | 18.69 | 4.98 | -13.71 | 4.62 | -14.07 | 12.86 | -5.83 |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | 1.12 | 2.44 | 1.32 | 1.12 | 2.05 | 2.54 | 1.42 | 2.60 | 1.48 | 1.93 | 3.04 | 1.11 | 3.61 | 1.68 | 3.59 | 1.66 |
| Daniel Poncedeleon | Cardinals | 2.04 | 5.74 | 3.70 | 2.04 | 3.48 | 5.03 | 2.99 | 4.27 | 2.23 | 2.04 | 5.74 | 3.70 | 5.52 | 3.48 | 5.03 | 2.99 |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 4.99 | 3.98 | -1.01 | 4.99 | -0.63 | 5.12 | 0.13 | 5.34 | 0.35 | 6.94 | 4.31 | -2.63 | 4.79 | -2.15 | 6.29 | -0.65 |
| Felix Pena | Angels | 4.35 | 4.38 | 0.03 | 4.35 | -0.10 | 4.49 | 0.14 | 5.28 | 0.93 | 5.40 | 5.68 | 0.28 | 5.46 | 0.06 | 5.22 | -0.18 |
| Glenn Sparkman | Royals | 4.95 | 4.33 | -0.62 | 4.95 | -0.41 | 4.11 | -0.84 | 5.13 | 0.18 | 4.30 | 4.32 | 0.02 | 4.66 | 0.36 | 4.53 | 0.23 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | 1.77 | 3.05 | 1.28 | 1.77 | 1.26 | 2.83 | 1.06 | 2.53 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 2.73 | 2.73 | 3.09 | 3.09 | 1.16 | 1.16 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 4.26 | 4.44 | 0.18 | 4.26 | 0.06 | 4.57 | 0.31 | 4.63 | 0.37 | 3.81 | 5.74 | 1.93 | 5.35 | 1.54 | 4.29 | 0.48 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 4.36 | 4.09 | -0.27 | 4.36 | -0.11 | 4.29 | -0.07 | 3.83 | -0.53 | 5.96 | 4.80 | -1.16 | 4.8 | -1.16 | 6.47 | 0.51 |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 3.75 | 3.77 | 0.02 | 3.75 | 0.11 | 3.80 | 0.05 | 4.57 | 0.82 | 4.10 | 4.42 | 0.32 | 4.26 | 0.16 | 3.81 | -0.29 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 3.73 | 4.40 | 0.67 | 3.73 | 0.66 | 4.37 | 0.64 | 4.79 | 1.06 | 5.53 | 4.75 | -0.78 | 4.52 | -1.01 | 5.73 | 0.20 |
| Kevin Gausman | Braves | 4.22 | 4.17 | -0.05 | 4.22 | -0.15 | 4.42 | 0.20 | 4.00 | -0.22 | 3.82 | 4.75 | 0.93 | 4.57 | 0.75 | 4.17 | 0.35 |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 4.11 | 4.01 | -0.10 | 4.11 | -0.26 | 4.15 | 0.04 | 2.99 | -1.12 | 4.55 | 2.80 | -1.75 | 2.72 | -1.83 | 2.32 | -2.23 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 4.03 | 3.57 | -0.46 | 4.03 | -0.46 | 4.51 | 0.48 | 4.14 | 0.11 | 2.64 | 3.07 | 0.43 | 2.91 | 0.27 | 3.42 | 0.78 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 3.90 | 4.44 | 0.54 | 3.90 | 0.33 | 4.11 | 0.21 | 4.24 | 0.34 | 2.73 | 3.95 | 1.22 | 3.81 | 1.08 | 2.95 | 0.22 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Red Sox | 3.62 | 3.77 | 0.15 | 3.62 | 0.13 | 3.89 | 0.27 | 3.28 | -0.34 | 1.99 | 4.54 | 2.55 | 4.36 | 2.37 | 2.90 | 0.91 |
| Pablo Lopez | Marlins | 4.79 | 4.00 | -0.79 | 4.79 | -0.88 | 4.72 | -0.07 | 4.49 | -0.30 | 3.90 | 3.92 | 0.02 | 3.95 | 0.05 | 4.63 | 0.73 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 3.18 | 2.91 | -0.27 | 3.18 | -0.54 | 2.41 | -0.77 | 2.71 | -0.47 | 2.97 | 2.27 | -0.70 | 1.97 | -1.00 | 0.88 | -2.09 |
| Robbie Erlin | Padres | 3.33 | 3.35 | 0.02 | 3.33 | 0.05 | 3.12 | -0.21 | 2.87 | -0.46 | 2.29 | 4.09 | 1.80 | 3.92 | 1.63 | 2.25 | -0.04 |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 5.31 | 4.90 | -0.41 | 5.31 | -0.57 | 5.16 | -0.15 | 5.69 | 0.38 | 5.95 | 4.81 | -1.14 | 4.99 | -0.96 | 4.13 | -1.82 |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | 5.13 | 4.08 | -1.05 | 5.13 | -1.05 | 4.59 | -0.54 | 5.02 | -0.11 | 6.65 | 4.31 | -2.34 | 3.93 | -2.72 | 4.12 | -2.53 |
| Shane Bieber | Indians | 4.37 | 3.59 | -0.78 | 4.37 | -0.80 | 3.16 | -1.21 | 3.51 | -0.86 | 5.84 | 3.59 | -2.25 | 3.67 | -2.17 | 3.24 | -2.60 |
| Steven Matz | Mets | 4.60 | 4.31 | -0.29 | 4.60 | -0.22 | 4.97 | 0.37 | 4.19 | -0.41 | 13.17 | 4.19 | -8.98 | 4.79 | -8.38 | 5.94 | -7.23 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 4.13 | 4.39 | 0.26 | 4.13 | 0.29 | 4.11 | -0.02 | 4.89 | 0.76 | 1.77 | 3.97 | 2.20 | 4.09 | 2.32 | 2.83 | 1.06 |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | 4.39 | 4.27 | -0.12 | 4.39 | -0.14 | 4.64 | 0.25 | 4.35 | -0.04 | 7.16 | 4.91 | -2.25 | 4.94 | -2.22 | 6.67 | -0.49 |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | 4.13 | 3.94 | -0.19 | 4.13 | -0.12 | 3.70 | -0.43 | 3.83 | -0.30 | 3.16 | 4.86 | 1.70 | 4.64 | 1.48 | 3.36 | 0.20 |
| Michael Kopech | White Sox |
Blake Snell has a .233 BABIP and 87.4 LOB%.
Hyun-Jin Ryu has a .200 BABIP and 89.2 LOB%.
Pablo Lopez has a .263 BABIP, but a 20 HR/FB.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .290 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.2 LD% – 10.1 IFFB% – 86.4 Z-Contact% – 36.3 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Jurado | Rangers | 0.302 | 0.276 | -0.026 | 52.7% | 17.2% | 14.3% | 94.6% | 45.1% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | 0.275 | 0.233 | -0.042 | 43.9% | 19.1% | 6.8% | 81.6% | 34.6% |
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | 0.273 | 0.295 | 0.022 | 54.3% | 20.4% | 8.5% | 92.7% | 32.9% |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | 0.298 | 0.330 | 0.032 | 41.3% | 26.9% | 2.9% | 86.6% | 37.9% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | 0.284 | 0.207 | -0.077 | 35.3% | 20.2% | 11.3% | 83.7% | 26.9% |
| Daniel Poncedeleon | Cardinals | 0.285 | 0.133 | -0.152 | 31.9% | 23.4% | 19.0% | 79.0% | 47.5% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 0.314 | 0.300 | -0.014 | 34.0% | 19.5% | 8.5% | 85.3% | 34.4% |
| Felix Pena | Angels | 0.293 | 0.283 | -0.010 | 41.7% | 25.0% | 6.3% | 85.9% | 31.8% |
| Glenn Sparkman | Royals | 0.311 | 0.333 | 0.022 | 43.8% | 23.4% | 0.0% | 82.5% | 46.1% |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | 0.285 | 0.200 | -0.085 | 54.9% | 11.0% | 7.1% | 80.4% | 35.3% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 0.301 | 0.293 | -0.008 | 45.2% | 20.6% | 10.3% | 89.7% | 38.2% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 0.290 | 0.301 | 0.011 | 32.9% | 22.9% | 11.3% | 89.0% | 33.8% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 0.309 | 0.272 | -0.037 | 41.0% | 21.4% | 11.6% | 86.6% | 33.0% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 0.276 | 0.287 | 0.011 | 42.3% | 19.4% | 12.5% | 86.7% | 42.0% |
| Kevin Gausman | Braves | 0.284 | 0.309 | 0.025 | 47.2% | 20.9% | 11.2% | 85.3% | 36.2% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 0.282 | 0.290 | 0.008 | 47.1% | 22.1% | 9.2% | 85.7% | 26.6% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 0.291 | 0.266 | -0.025 | 46.9% | 17.7% | 9.3% | 83.7% | 32.4% |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 0.296 | 0.296 | 0.000 | 49.2% | 20.7% | 7.8% | 92.4% | 34.5% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Red Sox | 0.288 | 0.265 | -0.023 | 44.5% | 18.2% | 15.9% | 86.3% | 40.7% |
| Pablo Lopez | Marlins | 0.294 | 0.263 | -0.031 | 52.1% | 19.3% | 17.5% | 85.0% | 31.0% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 0.283 | 0.297 | 0.014 | 48.6% | 23.4% | 5.6% | 83.7% | 27.6% |
| Robbie Erlin | Padres | 0.307 | 0.284 | -0.023 | 50.2% | 19.5% | 11.9% | 87.9% | 32.6% |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 0.297 | 0.285 | -0.012 | 44.9% | 21.8% | 11.2% | 91.6% | 37.2% |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | 0.309 | 0.323 | 0.014 | 46.3% | 20.2% | 4.4% | 90.9% | 35.5% |
| Shane Bieber | Indians | 0.294 | 0.372 | 0.078 | 43.9% | 21.0% | 5.6% | 85.1% | 33.0% |
| Steven Matz | Mets | 0.301 | 0.287 | -0.014 | 49.1% | 16.3% | 7.2% | 86.2% | 40.4% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 0.290 | 0.294 | 0.004 | 42.0% | 21.4% | 6.8% | 88.9% | 35.8% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | 0.299 | 0.263 | -0.036 | 38.7% | 21.8% | 9.0% | 85.1% | 40.5% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | 0.299 | 0.295 | -0.004 | 39.7% | 19.3% | 11.2% | 81.3% | 38.3% |
| Michael Kopech | White Sox | 0.290 |
Blake Snell has a decent profile. He doesn’t get many popups, but has a great Z-Contact% and generates a lot of weak contact with a strong defense behind him, but .234 is probably too low.
Hyun-Jin Ryu is not going to sustain an 11 LD%, but his 54.9 GB% is best on the board and he does have the fourth lowest aEV (86.5 mph).
Jose Berrios has a fine profile and generally limits hard contact, which doesn’t always translate to BABIP, but his .272 mark isn’t even that low. It’s just low in comparison to his team’s .309 BABIP allowed.
Pablo Lopez has a strong profile. He’s generating a lot of weak ground balls and getting some popups. Amazingly, it seems like a lot of his hard contact is leaving the yard and in the form of Barrels.
StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .314 wOBA)
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Jurado | Rangers | 0.400 | -0.027 | 0.410 | -0.032 | 0.390 | -0.017 | -0.300 | 93.2 | 8.6 | 53.800 | 93 |
| Blake Snell | Rays | 0.292 | -0.036 | 0.293 | -0.034 | 0.225 | -0.051 | 0.200 | 86.3 | 7.1 | 28.300 | 322 |
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | 0.366 | -0.028 | 0.404 | 0.017 | 0.344 | -0.070 | -0.800 | 88.6 | 8.9 | 40.500 | 190 |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | 0.385 | -0.023 | 0.348 | -0.017 | 0.496 | 0.140 | 0.000 | 90.5 | 7.4 | 39.600 | 323 |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | 0.281 | -0.066 | 0.319 | -0.029 | 0.322 | -0.049 | -0.400 | 86.5 | 7.5 | 33.300 | 120 |
| Daniel Poncedeleon | Cardinals | 0.324 | -0.077 | 0.265 | -0.091 | 0.324 | -0.077 | -0.500 | 85.7 | 6.4 | 21.300 | 47 |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 0.347 | 0.006 | 0.338 | -0.011 | 0.347 | 0.084 | -1.100 | 89.1 | 9.7 | 38.100 | 383 |
| Felix Pena | Angels | 0.343 | -0.023 | 0.388 | -0.026 | 0.364 | -0.044 | -0.900 | 89 | 7.6 | 42.100 | 145 |
| Glenn Sparkman | Royals | 0.318 | 0.027 | 0.331 | 0.044 | 0.309 | 0.041 | 0.100 | 89.7 | 4.6 | 40.000 | 65 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | 0.270 | -0.044 | 0.302 | 0.004 | 0.189 | -0.046 | 0.100 | 86.5 | 7.2 | 33.700 | 83 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 0.358 | -0.023 | 0.339 | -0.032 | 0.355 | -0.041 | -1.000 | 89.4 | 8.2 | 40.000 | 437 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 0.322 | 0.008 | 0.350 | -0.003 | 0.370 | 0.037 | -0.400 | 88.6 | 8.9 | 36.900 | 282 |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 0.310 | -0.018 | 0.341 | 0.005 | 0.319 | 0.018 | -0.300 | 86.5 | 6.1 | 32.600 | 423 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 0.334 | -0.010 | 0.319 | -0.004 | 0.329 | 0.047 | -0.300 | 88.5 | 7.1 | 40.400 | 364 |
| Kevin Gausman | Braves | 0.344 | -0.009 | 0.342 | 0.005 | 0.343 | -0.042 | -0.500 | 88.5 | 7.5 | 40.500 | 452 |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 0.325 | -0.014 | 0.313 | -0.017 | 0.247 | 0.061 | -0.800 | 85.3 | 6.4 | 32.300 | 437 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 0.325 | -0.011 | 0.329 | 0.009 | 0.308 | 0.000 | -1.200 | 87.8 | 8.0 | 37.900 | 311 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 0.362 | -0.043 | 0.341 | -0.020 | 0.293 | -0.025 | -1.800 | 89.7 | 6.7 | 40.800 | 510 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Red Sox | 0.312 | -0.027 | 0.261 | -0.056 | 0.289 | -0.011 | -0.800 | 87.9 | 7.1 | 36.100 | 238 |
| Pablo Lopez | Marlins | 0.334 | -0.017 | 0.331 | -0.001 | 0.315 | -0.004 | 0.700 | 86.4 | 8.5 | 30.500 | 141 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 0.288 | -0.030 | 0.298 | -0.012 | 0.261 | -0.030 | -0.400 | 87.9 | 5.9 | 35.600 | 388 |
| Robbie Erlin | Padres | 0.286 | -0.010 | 0.303 | 0.005 | 0.264 | -0.022 | -0.800 | 86.6 | 6.2 | 32.900 | 225 |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 0.354 | -0.014 | 0.345 | -0.010 | 0.327 | 0.004 | -1.000 | 88 | 7.6 | 34.600 | 410 |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | 0.346 | 0.002 | 0.339 | -0.023 | 0.389 | -0.004 | 0.200 | 89 | 6.9 | 41.500 | 275 |
| Shane Bieber | Indians | 0.321 | 0.023 | 0.306 | 0.017 | 0.331 | 0.032 | 0.100 | 89 | 6.8 | 34.500 | 206 |
| Steven Matz | Mets | 0.324 | 0.015 | 0.343 | 0.026 | 0.379 | 0.073 | 0.200 | 87.8 | 6.7 | 36.800 | 329 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 0.328 | -0.016 | 0.320 | 0.006 | 0.244 | -0.010 | -1.100 | 86.9 | 4.9 | 33.000 | 452 |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | 0.300 | 0.015 | 0.294 | 0.016 | 0.341 | 0.014 | -0.300 | 86.9 | 5.2 | 29.700 | 401 |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | 0.302 | 0.007 | 0.325 | -0.023 | 0.342 | -0.034 | 0.100 | 87.3 | 5.7 | 34.000 | 318 |
| Michael Kopech | White Sox |
Pablo Lopez has an aEV more than three miles per hour below Glenn Sparkman, but a rate of barrels allowed nearly twice as high. In these cases, which are usually small samples, I like to side with exit velocity, which means good for Lopez, but potentially bad for Sparkman.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
This is a rough and wide open board. The rate stats look best mostly for pitchers with small sample sizes and/or those we can’t expect to pitch very deep into games. It’s very difficult to project with any confidence what anyone is going to do here and some of it is based on uncertain workloads. Almost everyone has such a wide range of potential outcomes tonight, but not a lot of those are extremely high.
Value Tier One
Pablo Lopez is very cheap in a great park where almost all of the numbers say he’s been a league average pitcher. Sure, it’s the Yankees, but they’re not at full strength and can be somewhat neturalized by the park. (I mean we all know Stanton’s power will be greatly diminished in that park, right?)
Masahiro Tanaka (1) is the rare high priced pitcher who doesn’t cost more on DraftKings than FanDuel. In a great spot in Miami, he’s probably my top DK play and projects strongly on FD as well, but maybe drops a bit more towards the rest of the pack just below.
Value Tier Two
Kyle Hendricks is missing more bats and may be the top contact manager on the board against an offense that has great difficult making hard contact. The high ERA over the last month seems to be mostly the result of a fluky BABIP.
Kevin Gausman may be affordably competent in a decent spot and tonight that may be enough, especially since he does have at least some ability to generate more upside than that.
Michael Kopech arrives with a $7.6K price tag on DraftKings and some control issues (11.1 BB%) against an offense that can be difficult to pile up fantasy points against. However, he’s just $6K on FanDuel and this is absolutely the type of board where you take a shot with a high upside arm with some question marks. If he’s going to end up the chalk though, there’s sufficient reason to fade him. Check ownership projections later.
Value Tier Three
Patrick Corbin (1t) is the top pitcher on the board, but also the most expensive and not facing a strikeout prone team.
Hyun-Jin Ryu costs around $9K and is unlikely to reach 100 pitches and both his ERA and probably even his estimators are a bit optimistic, considering we don’t expect him to continue striking out so many batters. He’s also facing a very dangerous offense against LHP, but he does so with a reverse split in one of the best parks. A little bit of efficiency should get him through six innings though and there’s really not many pitchers you can say much more about.
Value Tier Four
Blake Snell with a full workload at home against the Royals might be the top overall pitcher on the board and 80-90% of a normal workload may still be worth paying up for here, but it’s close and not an easy decision.
Jose Berrios is not a pitcher I trust or someone I’m ever really comfortable paying up for. He’s also been pitching very poorly, but tonight’s board being what it is, we also have to consider there’s a chance he gives you seven innings or more in a high upside spot.
Vince Velasquez has not had the ideal run-up to a matchup with a difficult lineup, but he does have some of the best numbers on the board this season and this offense somehow struggles to reach the sum of their parts and underlying numbers in the overall results department.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.