Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, August 7th
It would seem important to note that the majority of Tuesday’s article is being written on Monday night since I need to be out of the house by noon today (Tuesday). That might make for a minor discrepancy in some of the quoted stats for opposing offenses once they’re updated in the morning, but unlikely to be anything drastic.
Thankfully, all 30 teams have listed their pitchers early Monday night, which makes things a bit easier. Hopefully, nothing changes because updating may prove difficult.
Lastly, there might be a few less words than normal for a full slate article due to time constraints, but the important stuff won’t be glossed over.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | 0.5 | 5.07 | 4.7 | 38.5% | 1.10 | 5.51 | 4.97 | Indians | 118 | 111 | 111 |
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | -8.8 | 4.51 | 5.8 | 49.0% | 0.94 | 4.57 | 3.84 | Rays | 106 | 99 | 117 |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 3.5 | 3.91 | 5.8 | 39.8% | 0.92 | 3.52 | 3.47 | Tigers | 72 | 98 | 34 |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 2.8 | 4.81 | 5.5 | 42.0% | 1.14 | 4.85 | 5.52 | Mariners | 103 | 100 | 81 |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 4.9 | 4.68 | 5.5 | 55.0% | 1.04 | 3.97 | 4.85 | Cubs | 102 | 107 | 123 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 5.8 | 3.22 | 6.1 | 44.7% | 1.10 | 3.30 | 2.28 | Twins | 85 | 96 | 93 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 6.2 | 4.32 | 5.6 | 48.7% | 0.96 | 4.58 | 4.90 | White Sox | 98 | 89 | 96 |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | -1.8 | 4.81 | 5.6 | 49.5% | 1.35 | 4.32 | Pirates | 93 | 97 | 74 | |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 6.2 | 4.42 | 5.5 | 37.4% | 1.04 | 4.67 | 4.38 | Padres | 73 | 78 | 110 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | -2.7 | 4.29 | 6.0 | 59.0% | 1.04 | 4.35 | 6.48 | Brewers | 92 | 88 | 93 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 0.8 | 3.77 | 6.3 | 60.2% | 0.91 | 3.42 | 4.20 | Giants | 104 | 91 | 93 |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | 6 | 4.32 | 5.2 | 42.3% | 1.01 | 4.37 | 5.72 | Blue Jays | 101 | 93 | 111 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | -1.4 | 4.49 | 5.5 | 45.9% | 1.14 | 4.64 | 6.49 | Rangers | 104 | 94 | 108 |
| Jacob Turner | Tigers | 2.7 | 5.43 | 5.6 | 45.3% | 0.92 | 6.24 | Angels | 107 | 111 | 83 | |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | -3.1 | 4.00 | 5.5 | 48.6% | 1.35 | 4.05 | 4.66 | Rockies | 88 | 78 | 57 |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | -5.4 | 4.80 | 5.2 | 39.0% | 0.91 | 4.84 | 4.92 | Reds | 97 | 106 | 74 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | -6.4 | 3.96 | 6.4 | 41.9% | 0.91 | 3.79 | 4.21 | Astros | 116 | 119 | 135 |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | -4 | 3.84 | 6.0 | 61.4% | 1.01 | 3.56 | 3.63 | Red Sox | 104 | 117 | 125 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | -4.1 | 2.93 | 6.6 | 35.2% | 1.00 | 3.09 | 2.23 | Braves | 106 | 95 | 106 |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 9.1 | 4.42 | 5.2 | 56.3% | 1.04 | 4.01 | 4.05 | Royals | 82 | 83 | 78 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | -0.9 | 4.01 | 6.2 | 50.8% | 0.90 | 3.94 | 4.24 | Marlins | 83 | 86 | 63 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | -8.1 | 3.81 | 5.1 | 44.3% | 1.00 | 4.30 | 1.91 | Diamondbacks | 95 | 87 | 119 |
| Pablo Lopez | Marlins | 0.5 | 3.96 | 5.7 | 53.9% | 0.90 | 3.98 | 4.17 | Cardinals | 101 | 95 | 106 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | -5.3 | 5.24 | 5.8 | 34.4% | 0.96 | 5.51 | 5.95 | Yankees | 101 | 107 | 78 |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | -5.1 | 3.58 | 5.4 | 37.0% | 0.95 | 3.60 | 3.39 | Athletics | 94 | 103 | 117 |
| Sal Romano | Reds | -2.4 | 4.80 | 5.4 | 46.8% | 0.91 | 4.80 | 4.52 | Mets | 79 | 94 | 92 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 2.3 | 4.34 | 5.8 | 45.0% | 0.95 | 4.24 | 3.74 | Dodgers | 102 | 89 | 107 |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 4.2 | 4.63 | 5.5 | 45.0% | 1.00 | 4.17 | 4.06 | Nationals | 106 | 95 | 160 |
| Tyler Glasnow | Rays | 2 | 4.56 | 4.3 | 48.5% | 0.94 | 4.38 | 5.04 | Orioles | 79 | 89 | 111 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 0.7 | 3.56 | 6.2 | 44.6% | 1.00 | 3.19 | 2.94 | Phillies | 87 | 94 | 96 |
Alex Cobb has been not entirely awful in recent starts. He’s gone at least six innings with three ERs or fewer in three of his last four starts, although there have been some unearned runs in there. He’s still not missing a lot of bats, but has a marginal matchup (Rays 14.3 K-BB%, 10.8 HR/FB vs RHP) in a favorable park (his old home).
Andrew Heaney has struck out five or fewer in five of his last eight starts and four in a row, but has also struck out 10 twice over that span. He’s gone at least six innings in six straight starts and at least seven innings in five of nine. The strikeout rate is above average with an ERA and estimators all below four. He’s a competent pitcher in a favorable park and while the Tigers are also competent against LHP (98 wRC+, 20.3 K%), they’re terrible on the road and have the lowest wRC+ in baseball (37) over the last seven days (not including Monday night).
Carlos Carrasco last three starts: 20.1 IP – 16 H – 5 R (3 ER) – 2 HR – 3 BB – 26 K – 76 BF. Those three starts were all on the road, in positive run environments though (Minn, Det, Tex). His 35 K% over the last month is second best on the board (and Scherzer isn’t first). His .264 xwOBA over that span is lowest on the board, bringing his season rate below .300 despite and 89.4 mph aEV. He’s rolling and the Twins (10.9 HR/FB vs RHP) were dominated by Bauer on Monday. It is a very positive run environment though and the Twins have just an 11.9 K-BB% vs RHP.
Jason Vargas has not exceeded five innings in any start and has allowed fewer than three runs just three times this year, while the Reds have a 11.0 K-BB% vs LHP. However, his 10.7 SwStr% is a career high and his 85.9 mph aEV is fourth best on the board and he pitches in one of the most negative run environments in baseball.
Marcus Stroman allowed seven runs in Oakland last time out, but did strike out six batters and still has an ERA and estimators below four with a 61.4 GB% in eight starts back from the DL. More amazing, he has a 2.7 K-BB% and has never been a quality contact manager, even at his best. The strikeout rate is still below average (18.5% since returning, 18.3% for the season) and there’s no way to spin that this is even a decent spot for him against the Red Sox, even at home. This is all about his DK price tonight.
Max Scherzer has bounced back from a short rough patch fairly nicely, striking out 21 of his last 55 batters. While the Braves have just a 20.6 K% vs RHP, he’s struck out 24 of them in 21 innings this season (76 BF). He easily tops the board with a 34.7 K%, 16.5 SwStr%, 2.72 SIERA and .268 xwOBA.
Miles Mikolas has increased his swinging strike and strikeout rates over the last month, but is still well below average for the season. He’s gone at least six innings in 17 of 22 starts though and has been one of the top contact managers on the board (.301 xwOBA, 85.3 mph aEV, 29.3% 95+ mph EV). He’s also walked just 25 batters all season. He transitions from a great park to a better one and gets to face the Marlins (86 wRC+, 16.1 K-BB% vs RHP).
Nick Pivetta has struck out 35 of his last 96 batters (36.5%) over 24 innings. He’s allowed 14 ERs over those 24 innings (16 runs total), but there’s still value in that many strikeouts. His 29.2 K% for the season sits behind only Scherzer today among those with more than one start. His .339 BABIP seems a fluke and his ERA is a run and a half above his estimators despite average contact authority and a .305 xwOBA. He’s in Arizona against an improving offense, but still one with an 87 wRC+ and 23.7 K% vs RHP this year.
Pablo Lopez has pitched six innings in four of his six starts, missing once by a single out with about league average swing and miss stuff. He hasn’t been bad from a peripheral standpoint. The contact hasn’t been too hard despite averaging a HR per start. He’s in a great park against an average offense at best.
Zack Greinke has gone eight straight starts without allowing more than two runs. He’s pitched into the seventh inning in six of those starts. While opponents will still occasionally launch one on him, he’s minimized the damage by walking just six batters over that span (23.5 K-BB%). The Phillies are an improved offense and will probably cut down on their strikeouts the rest of the season, but that mark is still above 25% on the road and vs RHP.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.290 BABIP – 72.8 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
C.C. Sabathia (.282 – 77% – 13.3 – 17.3% unearned run rate) has allowed just two runs in each of his last two starts, but over a total of 7.2 innings. He did strike out eight of 23 Royals two starts back and has turned himself into one of the top contact managers in the game (board low 26.8% 95+ mph EV), but he has a 12.3 BB% over his last five starts and just a 6.1 K-BB% even with those eight Ks against the Royals. The White Sox do strike out almost enough to make it work though (25+% at home, vs LHP and over the last week).
Chase Anderson (.231 – 81.3% – 14.5) has gone eight straight starts without allowing more than two runs. He has a 24.3 K% over that span, but has only completed six innings four times in that span with a high of 6.1 innings. He also has a .254 BABIP and 93.4 LOB% over this period with a 35.9 Hard%. Despite 21 HRs, he has just an 85.9 mph aEV and the Padres are above a 25 K% on the road and vs RHP, but there’s some regression coming for his BABIP and strand rate.
Sean Newcomb (.241 – 77% – 10.5) Is a solid contact manager (4.3% Barrels/BBE, .303 xwOBA), but with just an average strikeout rate and costs more than $10K on DK ($2.9K price discrepancy) against the hottest offense in baseball (160 wRC+, 0 K-BB% last seven days).
Sean Manaea (.234 – 77.2% – 12.8) has not struck out more than five since June and faces a loaded lineup that’s certainly better than their 89 wRC+ vs LHP at this point.
Brad Keller (.296 – 75.6% – 5.2) has an unsustainable HR rate and just a 5.5 K-BB%. Those are not the peripherals one wants to take into battle with the Cubs (11.1 K-BB% vs RHP).
Reynaldo Lopez (.263 – 72.4% – 10) has an ERA well above four that should be above five.
Adalberto Mejia (.278 – 84.8% – 5.3)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Rich Hill is expensive and although he’s gone at least six innings in three of his last four starts, he’s thrown less than 100 pitches in all of them. He strikes out around a quarter of batters and is in a decent park, though it’s a bit of a run environment downgrade for him against a fairly competent offense. They are better against RHP than LHP despite being a predominantly RH offense. His reverse split could give him a boost here, but he’ll need to be really good considering the cost and workload.
Tyler Glasnow faced 11 batters, struck out five of them in his first “start” for the Rays. He threw 48 pitches. If they are interested in stretching him out, he can miss enough bats and is in a great spot at home against the Orioles (18.5 K-BB% on the road, 16.5 K-BB% vs RHP). However, he’s not cheap enough that he can pay off in just three or four innings (most likely) and even at best, probably won’t go past 65 pitches or so.
Sal Romano has four walks and nine strikeouts over the last month (21 innings). He’s cheap enough and doesn’t get hit too hard against an offense with a 79 wRC+ and 8.7 HR/FB at home, but has just a 7.9 SwStr% on the season.
Mike Montgomery has a 9.4 K% over the last month and has completed six innings in just one of his last six starts. It’s hard to argue he’s not in a tremendous spot in Kansas City, against an offense with an 83 wRC+, 16.8 K-BB% and 9.4 HR/FB vs LHP.
Jameson Taillon has seen his strikeout rate drop back down a bit over the last month and Coors.
Clayton Richard has a -7.3 K-BB% since the start of July.
Jacob Turner had an 8.6 K-BB% in 11 AAA starts for the Tigers, an 8.6 K-BB% in 21.2 AAA innings for the Marlins and a -8.6 K-BB% in 5.2 innings for the Marlins this season. He last had a double digit K-BB% in 2016 at AAA.
Chad Bettis hasn’t seen major league action in over a month and has not looked very good in minor league rehab starts.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | L2 Yrs | 17.9% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.7% | Season | 13.5% | 10.8% | 5.3% | -5.5% | Road | 15.8% | 10.9% | 6.9% | 3.1% | L14Days | 16.7% | 9.3% | 6.7% | |
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 16.4% | 6.0% | 14.3% | 18.1% | Season | 15.2% | 5.9% | 14.6% | 13.5% | Road | 16.1% | 6.5% | 13.3% | 21.0% | L14Days | 15.7% | 2.0% | 8.3% | 7.1% |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | L2 Yrs | 23.6% | 6.8% | 17.8% | 20.7% | Season | 23.0% | 6.3% | 12.3% | 17.5% | Home | 24.6% | 6.2% | 15.9% | 22.0% | L14Days | 17.9% | 18.2% | 34.9% | |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 14.3% | 4.7% | 14.0% | 20.7% | Season | 13.6% | 4.2% | 16.2% | 26.8% | Home | 15.0% | 5.6% | 16.9% | 21.6% | L14Days | 12.5% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 27.3% |
| Brad Keller | Royals | L2 Yrs | 15.7% | 10.2% | 5.2% | 15.8% | Season | 15.7% | 10.2% | 5.2% | 15.8% | Home | 17.0% | 10.5% | 4.8% | 24.3% | L14Days | 19.2% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 25.7% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Yrs | 28.3% | 5.2% | 12.9% | 16.8% | Season | 27.8% | 5.2% | 13.2% | 24.4% | Home | 27.6% | 5.6% | 16.4% | 14.1% | L14Days | 34.6% | 3.9% | 10.0% | 31.2% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 20.0% | 7.8% | 16.3% | 2.8% | Season | 18.5% | 7.5% | 13.3% | 2.9% | Road | 16.6% | 9.2% | 16.1% | 1.3% | L14Days | 25.0% | 15.0% | 20.0% | -21.7% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 15.9% | 8.3% | 15.5% | 12.6% | Season | 16.9% | 9.3% | 16.9% | 14.1% | Home | 16.3% | 6.1% | 20.0% | 10.6% | L14Days | ||||
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 21.2% | 7.9% | 12.1% | 14.8% | Season | 19.7% | 9.0% | 14.5% | 15.8% | Home | 21.9% | 7.8% | 14.8% | 17.1% | L14Days | 20.5% | 4.6% | 11.1% | 3.0% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Yrs | 16.8% | 8.3% | 17.1% | 17.3% | Season | 16.6% | 9.6% | 15.6% | 20.8% | Road | 15.7% | 8.8% | 21.9% | 18.2% | L14Days | 4.4% | 11.1% | 22.2% | 15.8% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Yrs | 19.6% | 6.9% | 16.3% | 2.4% | Season | 17.4% | 6.1% | 13.2% | 3.7% | Road | 20.0% | 7.0% | 16.7% | 6.6% | L14Days | 13.2% | 5.7% | 22.2% | 9.3% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 23.0% | 9.3% | 13.3% | 15.1% | Season | 19.6% | 12.3% | 15.3% | 19.7% | Road | 22.8% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 11.1% | L14Days | 15.2% | 13.0% | 18.2% | 25.8% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 19.3% | 8.3% | 16.3% | 17.9% | Season | 18.6% | 8.1% | 23.9% | Road | 17.9% | 7.3% | 18.4% | 24.3% | L14Days | 7.9% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 22.5% | |
| Jacob Turner | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 12.1% | 10.3% | 15.1% | 27.8% | Season | 5.7% | 14.3% | 7.7% | 21.4% | Road | 12.6% | 10.9% | 18.9% | 24.4% | L14Days | ||||
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 21.5% | 6.9% | 11.1% | 10.1% | Season | 22.2% | 6.5% | 12.0% | 10.6% | Road | 20.6% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 14.6% | L14Days | 12.5% | 5.4% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | L2 Yrs | 18.2% | 7.9% | 13.2% | 16.7% | Season | 18.8% | 9.0% | 19.0% | 22.8% | Home | 18.2% | 7.9% | 12.0% | 14.3% | L14Days | 23.3% | 14.0% | 9.1% | 25.9% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Yrs | 22.9% | 6.2% | 11.1% | 15.8% | Season | 19.7% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 17.0% | Home | 23.0% | 5.5% | 11.1% | 20.6% | L14Days | 17.5% | 7.0% | 25.5% | |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 19.4% | 7.5% | 16.1% | 11.9% | Season | 18.3% | 8.1% | 14.0% | 15.1% | Home | 19.8% | 7.5% | 15.6% | 11.4% | L14Days | 17.0% | 3.8% | -4.7% | |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 33.6% | 6.6% | 9.9% | 8.2% | Season | 34.7% | 6.3% | 9.9% | 6.8% | Home | 35.5% | 6.7% | 11.5% | 6.1% | L14Days | 38.2% | 5.5% | 11.1% | 6.7% |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 17.6% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 9.5% | Season | 14.2% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 8.9% | Road | 19.0% | 7.3% | 12.2% | 10.8% | L14Days | 10.2% | 4.1% | 29.3% | |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 17.5% | 4.5% | 8.1% | 14.3% | Season | 17.5% | 4.5% | 8.1% | 14.3% | Road | 18.9% | 6.0% | 11.9% | 11.2% | L14Days | 15.4% | 5.8% | 11.1% | 24.4% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 26.3% | 8.3% | 17.1% | 18.2% | Season | 29.2% | 6.6% | 15.6% | 16.3% | Road | 22.8% | 10.4% | 16.4% | 22.5% | L14Days | 41.3% | 4.4% | 30.0% | 12.0% |
| Pablo Lopez | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 19.7% | 6.3% | 20.7% | 15.5% | Season | 19.7% | 6.3% | 20.7% | 15.5% | Home | 18.0% | 7.7% | 23.1% | 15.8% | L14Days | 16.7% | 4.2% | 18.2% | 21.6% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 16.2% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 10.8% | Season | 16.2% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 12.7% | Home | 16.0% | 7.5% | 11.8% | 8.0% | L14Days | 13.5% | 11.5% | 27.8% | 12.8% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 28.6% | 8.0% | 12.3% | 15.9% | Season | 25.4% | 8.2% | 14.7% | 27.0% | Road | 29.8% | 7.1% | 14.6% | 12.8% | L14Days | 23.5% | 3.9% | 10.8% | |
| Sal Romano | Reds | L2 Yrs | 17.3% | 8.8% | 14.7% | 14.4% | Season | 16.1% | 8.2% | 16.5% | 16.7% | Road | 14.5% | 7.5% | 11.8% | 13.1% | L14Days | 15.4% | 1.9% | 10.5% | 16.3% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 19.4% | 6.5% | 11.9% | 19.1% | Season | 17.2% | 4.6% | 12.8% | 20.6% | Home | 19.8% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 16.9% | L14Days | 21.3% | 4.3% | 9.1% | -11.5% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | L2 Yrs | 23.0% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 10.4% | Season | 22.5% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 11.1% | Road | 26.8% | 14.0% | 13.6% | 6.6% | L14Days | 25.0% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 32.4% |
| Tyler Glasnow | Rays | L2 Yrs | 24.0% | 13.9% | 16.9% | 12.5% | Season | 30.3% | 13.8% | 17.1% | 14.9% | Home | 24.2% | 13.5% | 14.5% | 15.3% | L14Days | 25.0% | 20.8% | 50.0% | 23.1% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 25.5% | 5.7% | 14.7% | 18.9% | Season | 25.9% | 4.4% | 14.4% | 23.8% | Home | 28.2% | 5.3% | 12.1% | 26.2% | L14Days | 22.9% | 2.1% | 28.6% | 5.6% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indians | Home | 18.4% | 9.3% | 15.3% | 26.4% | LH | 18.4% | 8.7% | 11.9% | 18.6% | L7Days | 14.0% | 11.7% | 13.2% | 19.8% |
| Rays | Home | 22.4% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 17.7% | RH | 22.4% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 16.5% | L7Days | 21.4% | 12.7% | 11.4% | 31.2% |
| Tigers | Road | 23.2% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 11.6% | LH | 20.3% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 18.1% | L7Days | 21.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 12.5% |
| Mariners | Road | 18.7% | 7.4% | 12.3% | 18.8% | RH | 20.1% | 6.8% | 13.5% | 14.7% | L7Days | 18.3% | 4.9% | 11.4% | 7.0% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.1% | 9.4% | 12.4% | 16.1% | RH | 20.8% | 9.6% | 13.0% | 14.1% | L7Days | 21.1% | 7.8% | 16.7% | 8.1% |
| Twins | Road | 22.4% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 16.1% | RH | 21.4% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 21.3% | L7Days | 25.6% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 34.8% |
| White Sox | Home | 25.6% | 7.1% | 11.7% | 5.7% | LH | 25.8% | 7.6% | 12.2% | 15.1% | L7Days | 29.1% | 11.2% | 16.1% | 22.8% |
| Pirates | Road | 20.9% | 7.2% | 12.9% | 17.8% | RH | 19.5% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 11.9% | L7Days | 23.6% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 12.0% |
| Padres | Road | 25.5% | 6.5% | 10.7% | 14.0% | RH | 25.9% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 17.4% | L7Days | 19.7% | 7.6% | 14.3% | 7.1% |
| Brewers | Home | 25.1% | 9.4% | 16.6% | 25.0% | LH | 21.1% | 9.2% | 15.5% | 21.5% | L7Days | 24.1% | 7.9% | 17.3% | 24.8% |
| Giants | Home | 21.5% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 20.0% | LH | 21.2% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 19.8% | L7Days | 24.8% | 8.3% | 11.8% | 24.0% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 22.2% | 8.3% | 13.6% | 13.1% | LH | 21.8% | 7.6% | 13.6% | 12.6% | L7Days | 21.2% | 6.6% | 15.1% | 8.0% |
| Rangers | Home | 24.0% | 10.4% | 15.4% | 23.8% | RH | 25.6% | 9.4% | 14.7% | 21.5% | L7Days | 24.3% | 11.1% | 14.3% | 21.5% |
| Angels | Home | 21.2% | 8.9% | 14.1% | 22.4% | RH | 20.4% | 8.7% | 14.2% | 20.7% | L7Days | 24.0% | 7.0% | 11.9% | 13.9% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.4% | 8.1% | 16.1% | 13.8% | RH | 23.5% | 8.3% | 14.2% | 15.3% | L7Days | 23.9% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 17.8% |
| Reds | Road | 19.5% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 17.1% | LH | 20.9% | 9.9% | 13.1% | 22.3% | L7Days | 22.2% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 16.0% |
| Astros | Road | 19.6% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 21.1% | LH | 19.9% | 8.7% | 12.6% | 17.3% | L7Days | 19.5% | 7.2% | 20.0% | 16.4% |
| Red Sox | Road | 21.1% | 8.7% | 13.8% | 19.9% | RH | 18.8% | 8.4% | 14.4% | 19.5% | L7Days | 20.8% | 9.6% | 15.6% | 17.2% |
| Braves | Road | 20.6% | 7.9% | 13.2% | 18.3% | RH | 20.6% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 18.3% | L7Days | 23.0% | 4.3% | 15.6% | 19.1% |
| Royals | Home | 20.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 25.4% | LH | 23.4% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 17.0% | L7Days | 21.2% | 6.1% | 9.3% | 15.8% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.9% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 17.6% | RH | 23.0% | 6.9% | 11.7% | 16.3% | L7Days | 21.8% | 2.9% | 14.6% | 9.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 23.2% | 9.9% | 12.6% | 25.8% | RH | 23.7% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 19.8% | L7Days | 18.4% | 10.2% | 15.8% | 28.4% |
| Cardinals | Road | 22.9% | 9.4% | 15.7% | 18.8% | RH | 21.8% | 8.2% | 13.2% | 20.9% | L7Days | 17.1% | 9.6% | 5.6% | 21.3% |
| Yankees | Road | 23.7% | 8.5% | 15.1% | 17.6% | RH | 22.8% | 9.0% | 15.5% | 18.6% | L7Days | 22.1% | 9.1% | 13.3% | 17.4% |
| Athletics | Home | 22.4% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 25.3% | LH | 22.7% | 8.9% | 13.1% | 24.3% | L7Days | 21.4% | 7.8% | 14.3% | 19.0% |
| Mets | Home | 23.9% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 11.0% | RH | 21.6% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 15.8% | L7Days | 25.8% | 5.6% | 17.9% | 17.0% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.6% | 10.6% | 12.9% | 20.4% | LH | 22.4% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 20.4% | L7Days | 29.2% | 9.3% | 21.2% | 30.3% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.9% | 10.1% | 13.7% | 11.3% | LH | 22.4% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 14.6% | L7Days | 10.7% | 10.7% | 15.9% | 5.8% |
| Orioles | Road | 25.3% | 6.8% | 12.2% | 14.2% | RH | 23.8% | 7.3% | 13.6% | 13.1% | L7Days | 22.0% | 5.3% | 14.8% | 29.8% |
| Phillies | Road | 25.4% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 8.1% | RH | 25.8% | 9.7% | 14.4% | 8.7% | L7Days | 23.3% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 14.4% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.5 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | 13.5% | 9.0% | 1.50 | 16.7% | 9.1% | 1.84 |
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 15.2% | 7.3% | 2.08 | 16.5% | 7.6% | 2.17 |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 23.0% | 11.5% | 2.00 | 22.4% | 11.7% | 1.91 |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 13.6% | 5.4% | 2.52 | 11.3% | 4.1% | 2.76 |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 15.7% | 8.2% | 1.91 | 17.5% | 7.5% | 2.33 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 27.8% | 14.1% | 1.97 | 35.0% | 17.4% | 2.01 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 18.5% | 10.0% | 1.85 | 18.4% | 8.1% | 2.27 |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 16.9% | 8.7% | 1.94 | |||
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 19.7% | 8.8% | 2.24 | 20.9% | 9.0% | 2.32 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 16.6% | 8.8% | 1.89 | 9.8% | 5.4% | 1.81 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 17.4% | 8.4% | 2.07 | 13.5% | 7.7% | 1.75 |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | 19.6% | 7.3% | 2.68 | 15.2% | 6.5% | 2.34 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 18.6% | 8.6% | 2.16 | 16.7% | 11.8% | 1.42 |
| Jacob Turner | Tigers | 5.7% | 6.4% | 0.89 | |||
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 22.2% | 10.3% | 2.16 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 1.98 |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | 18.8% | 10.8% | 1.74 | 23.3% | 11.9% | 1.96 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 19.7% | 9.4% | 2.10 | 20.8% | 10.5% | 1.98 |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 18.3% | 9.5% | 1.93 | 19.4% | 9.5% | 2.04 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 34.7% | 16.5% | 2.10 | 26.9% | 14.3% | 1.88 |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 14.2% | 8.5% | 1.67 | 9.4% | 5.0% | 1.88 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 17.5% | 9.0% | 1.94 | 19.3% | 10.5% | 1.84 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 29.2% | 12.1% | 2.41 | 36.5% | 13.3% | 2.74 |
| Pablo Lopez | Marlins | 19.7% | 10.3% | 1.91 | 20.8% | 10.9% | 1.91 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 16.2% | 8.5% | 1.91 | 14.2% | 7.6% | 1.87 |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | 25.4% | 9.3% | 2.73 | 27.3% | 12.1% | 2.26 |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 16.1% | 7.9% | 2.04 | 10.0% | 8.7% | 1.15 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 17.2% | 10.4% | 1.65 | 17.5% | 13.6% | 1.29 |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 22.5% | 9.7% | 2.32 | 18.8% | 7.4% | 2.54 |
| Tyler Glasnow | Rays | 30.3% | 11.6% | 2.61 | 31.1% | 8.9% | 3.49 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 25.9% | 11.2% | 2.31 | 29.3% | 11.3% | 2.59 |
Jason Vargas has the highest SwStr% of his career as mentioned. Otherwise, there’s not too much we’re interested in here today.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.21 ERA – 4.2 SIERA – 4.16 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | 2.60 | 5.58 | 2.98 | 2.60 | 2.77 | 4.31 | 1.71 | 6.94 | 4.34 | 0.68 | 4.97 | 4.29 | 5.02 | 4.34 | 4.14 | 3.46 |
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 5.83 | 4.56 | -1.27 | 5.83 | -1.28 | 4.83 | -1.00 | 6.07 | 0.24 | 3.81 | 4.24 | 0.43 | 4.13 | 0.32 | 4.22 | 0.41 |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 3.75 | 3.88 | 0.13 | 3.75 | 0.14 | 3.84 | 0.09 | 3.77 | 0.02 | 3.51 | 3.75 | 0.24 | 3.89 | 0.38 | 3.82 | 0.31 |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 5.18 | 4.72 | -0.46 | 5.18 | -0.58 | 5.15 | -0.03 | 6.40 | 1.22 | 7.54 | 5.47 | -2.07 | 5.71 | -1.83 | 4.31 | -3.23 |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 3.39 | 4.68 | 1.29 | 3.39 | 0.97 | 3.67 | 0.28 | 5.67 | 2.28 | 6.15 | 5.37 | -0.78 | 4.68 | -1.47 | 4.60 | -1.55 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 3.66 | 3.22 | -0.44 | 3.66 | -0.46 | 3.26 | -0.40 | 3.53 | -0.13 | 1.37 | 2.34 | 0.97 | 2.15 | 0.78 | 1.95 | 0.58 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 3.59 | 4.50 | 0.91 | 3.59 | 1.02 | 4.70 | 1.11 | 5.48 | 1.89 | 6.38 | 5.12 | -1.26 | 5.09 | -1.29 | 6.92 | 0.54 |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 5.10 | 4.79 | -0.31 | 5.10 | -0.52 | 5.08 | -0.02 | 4.79 | -0.31 | |||||||
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 3.65 | 4.68 | 1.03 | 3.65 | 1.15 | 5.08 | 1.43 | 5.07 | 1.42 | 2.42 | 4.29 | 1.87 | 4.35 | 1.93 | 4.31 | 1.89 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 4.99 | 4.54 | -0.45 | 4.99 | -0.74 | 4.50 | -0.49 | 4.77 | -0.22 | 7.50 | 6.47 | -1.03 | 5.91 | -1.59 | 6.37 | -1.13 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 3.61 | 4.03 | 0.42 | 3.61 | 0.11 | 3.77 | 0.16 | 3.56 | -0.05 | 1.93 | 4.40 | 2.47 | 3.95 | 2.02 | 3.59 | 1.66 |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | 6.56 | 5.08 | -1.48 | 6.56 | -1.29 | 5.69 | -0.87 | 8.93 | 2.37 | 5.59 | 5.72 | 0.13 | 6.07 | 0.48 | 6.88 | 1.29 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 5.49 | 4.55 | -0.94 | 5.49 | -0.89 | 4.71 | -0.78 | 4.73 | -0.76 | 8.53 | 5.15 | -3.38 | 5.45 | -3.08 | 5.29 | -3.24 |
| Jacob Turner | Tigers | 15.88 | 7.00 | -8.88 | 15.88 | -6.99 | 7.40 | -8.48 | 8.89 | -6.99 | |||||||
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 3.74 | 3.83 | 0.09 | 3.74 | -0.10 | 3.57 | -0.17 | 3.26 | -0.48 | 2.84 | 3.59 | 0.75 | 3.24 | 0.40 | 2.81 | -0.03 |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | 8.23 | 4.77 | -3.46 | 8.23 | -3.18 | 6.16 | -2.07 | 5.65 | -2.58 | 6.75 | 4.92 | -1.83 | 4.89 | -1.86 | 4.34 | -2.41 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 2.97 | 4.58 | 1.61 | 2.97 | 1.35 | 3.72 | 0.75 | 4.52 | 1.55 | 3.49 | 4.74 | 1.25 | 4.3 | 0.81 | 3.94 | 0.45 |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 5.63 | 3.98 | -1.65 | 5.63 | -1.87 | 3.88 | -1.75 | 3.84 | -1.79 | 4.11 | 3.60 | -0.51 | 3.44 | -0.67 | 2.74 | -1.37 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 2.33 | 2.72 | 0.39 | 2.33 | 0.74 | 2.68 | 0.35 | 2.26 | -0.07 | 2.91 | 3.47 | 0.56 | 3.73 | 0.82 | 4.13 | 1.22 |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 3.90 | 4.55 | 0.65 | 3.90 | 0.53 | 4.04 | 0.14 | 4.57 | 0.67 | 4.64 | 4.70 | 0.06 | 4.17 | -0.47 | 3.77 | -0.87 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 2.75 | 4.01 | 1.26 | 2.75 | 0.99 | 3.26 | 0.51 | 3.39 | 0.64 | 3.21 | 4.04 | 0.83 | 3.67 | 0.46 | 3.02 | -0.19 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 4.75 | 3.23 | -1.52 | 4.75 | -1.54 | 3.57 | -1.18 | 2.93 | -1.82 | 5.25 | 2.18 | -3.07 | 2.06 | -3.19 | 2.79 | -2.46 |
| Pablo Lopez | Marlins | 4.67 | 3.95 | -0.72 | 4.67 | -0.79 | 4.75 | 0.08 | 4.95 | 0.28 | 4.18 | 3.84 | -0.34 | 3.81 | -0.37 | 4.13 | -0.05 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 4.47 | 5.37 | 0.90 | 4.47 | 1.21 | 5.17 | 0.70 | 6.63 | 2.16 | 7.50 | 5.78 | -1.72 | 5.91 | -1.59 | 7.49 | -0.01 |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | 3.63 | 3.84 | 0.21 | 3.63 | 0.27 | 4.16 | 0.53 | 4.42 | 0.79 | 2.00 | 3.52 | 1.52 | 3.16 | 1.16 | 2.90 | 0.90 |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 5.12 | 4.86 | -0.26 | 5.12 | -0.43 | 5.24 | 0.12 | 5.69 | 0.57 | 3.86 | 5.38 | 1.52 | 5.31 | 1.45 | 5.35 | 1.49 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 3.38 | 4.32 | 0.94 | 3.38 | 0.84 | 4.24 | 0.86 | 3.84 | 0.46 | 3.58 | 4.08 | 0.50 | 3.99 | 0.41 | 3.67 | 0.09 |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 3.23 | 4.57 | 1.34 | 3.23 | 1.09 | 4.05 | 0.82 | 3.60 | 0.37 | 3.75 | 5.18 | 1.43 | 4.95 | 1.20 | 4.79 | 1.04 |
| Tyler Glasnow | Rays | 4.27 | 3.54 | -0.73 | 4.27 | -0.91 | 3.70 | -0.57 | 3.27 | -1.00 | 0.82 | 4.40 | 3.58 | 3.52 | 2.70 | 4.25 | 3.43 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 2.96 | 3.32 | 0.36 | 2.96 | 0.26 | 3.43 | 0.47 | 2.56 | -0.40 | 1.64 | 2.85 | 1.21 | 2.48 | 0.84 | 2.62 | 0.98 |
Alex Cobb has a .332 BABIP and 62.9 LOB% with an 11.25% unearned run rate.
Jason Vargas has a .356 BABIP and 19 HR/FB despite limiting hard contact. The result is a 62.7 LOB%. None of this would seem sustainable.
Marcus Stroman has a .333 BABIP (.329 since returning from the DL) and 60.5 LOB%.
Miles Mikolas has an 8.1 HR/FB and I’m not so sure why his ERA is so far below his SIERA. A proficient weak contact generator, I’m inclined not to buy into that 4.01 SIERA at all.
Nick Pivetta has a .339 BABIP.
Pablo Lopez has a 20.7 HR/FB, though overall contact doesn’t appear to be an issue.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .290 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.2 LD% – 10.1 IFFB% – 86.4 Z-Contact% – 36.3 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | 0.311 | 0.278 | -0.033 | 35.2% | 29.6% | 10.5% | 92.1% | 38.2% |
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 0.318 | 0.332 | 0.014 | 50.0% | 17.6% | 11.4% | 91.2% | 34.5% |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 0.291 | 0.272 | -0.019 | 41.5% | 22.8% | 11.5% | 84.7% | 37.2% |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 0.304 | 0.279 | -0.025 | 43.0% | 22.3% | 9.5% | 93.0% | 32.0% |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 0.313 | 0.296 | -0.017 | 55.0% | 21.7% | 8.6% | 90.4% | 35.6% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 0.293 | 0.313 | 0.020 | 43.6% | 21.5% | 7.9% | 87.5% | 29.1% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 0.287 | 0.282 | -0.005 | 44.0% | 20.6% | 10.8% | 89.3% | 34.7% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 0.300 | 0.283 | -0.017 | 49.3% | 20.2% | 5.6% | 88.2% | 36.6% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 0.275 | 0.231 | -0.044 | 36.0% | 20.4% | 13.1% | 85.7% | 38.9% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 0.306 | 0.283 | -0.023 | 56.9% | 21.3% | 7.8% | 88.7% | 37.9% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 0.278 | 0.287 | 0.009 | 54.4% | 22.4% | 10.4% | 89.8% | 33.3% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | 0.288 | 0.348 | 0.060 | 38.4% | 21.2% | 8.5% | 92.6% | 38.6% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 0.297 | 0.301 | 0.004 | 44.7% | 20.8% | 10.3% | 90.7% | 34.7% |
| Jacob Turner | Tigers | 0.289 | 0.444 | 0.155 | 39.3% | 14.3% | 15.4% | 97.8% | 61.6% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 0.301 | 0.299 | -0.002 | 49.2% | 20.8% | 5.6% | 85.3% | 33.9% |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | 0.302 | 0.356 | 0.054 | 35.1% | 24.0% | 7.9% | 83.5% | 30.9% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 0.295 | 0.267 | -0.028 | 44.2% | 23.4% | 12.5% | 90.0% | 34.9% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 0.308 | 0.333 | 0.025 | 61.0% | 17.8% | 1.8% | 89.6% | 33.0% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 0.290 | 0.257 | -0.033 | 36.2% | 16.8% | 16.7% | 77.9% | 35.1% |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 0.280 | 0.300 | 0.020 | 53.5% | 20.5% | 9.1% | 87.9% | 29.9% |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 0.290 | 0.275 | -0.015 | 50.8% | 22.3% | 10.8% | 88.5% | 32.6% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 0.291 | 0.339 | 0.048 | 44.9% | 18.2% | 10.1% | 83.6% | 35.2% |
| Pablo Lopez | Marlins | 0.294 | 0.278 | -0.016 | 53.9% | 17.6% | 10.3% | 84.3% | 29.0% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 0.290 | 0.263 | -0.027 | 33.8% | 18.8% | 13.7% | 86.5% | 46.5% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | 0.288 | 0.301 | 0.013 | 38.0% | 24.5% | 9.3% | 83.4% | 35.5% |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 0.297 | 0.280 | -0.017 | 44.3% | 22.0% | 11.8% | 91.3% | 36.2% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 0.274 | 0.234 | -0.040 | 44.4% | 20.6% | 9.5% | 88.6% | 34.5% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 0.278 | 0.241 | -0.037 | 45.9% | 18.4% | 9.6% | 83.4% | 39.2% |
| Tyler Glasnow | Rays | 0.278 | 0.319 | 0.041 | 56.8% | 18.0% | 0.0% | 82.6% | 40.4% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 0.284 | 0.280 | -0.004 | 42.3% | 24.0% | 11.4% | 83.3% | 26.4% |
Alex Cobb has a…Christ the Baltimore defense is terrible!
Jason Vargas has a 24% line drive rate, despite the low aEV and he’s one of just two pitchers on the board to excel with both his Z-Contact% and Z-O-Swing%. The other is Zack Greinke.
Marcus Stroman has always had a high BABIP (.309 career) as do the Blue Jays this year, but as mentioned earlier the quality contact management (2.7 Hard-Soft%) since returning has been the amazing thing, though not amazing enough to normalize his BABIP.
Max Scherzer has a .257 BABIP with a dominant profile.
Nick Pivetta has a low line drive rate and nothing stands out in his profile as a negative. His Barrels/BBE is a bit on the high side, though not his aEV. The .339 BABIP seems fluky.
StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .314 wOBA)
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | 0.368 | -0.074 | 0.354 | -0.036 | 0.368 | -0.074 | -1.100 | 82.3 | 5.5 | 32.700 | 55 |
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 0.353 | 0.015 | 0.354 | -0.003 | 0.346 | -0.003 | -1.900 | 88.8 | 8.1 | 41.600 | 385 |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 0.325 | -0.030 | 0.306 | -0.036 | 0.334 | -0.024 | -1.400 | 86.3 | 8.0 | 35.500 | 349 |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 0.366 | -0.023 | 0.355 | 0.014 | 0.370 | 0.011 | -2.000 | 89.3 | 7.5 | 40.400 | 426 |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 0.329 | -0.035 | 0.336 | -0.068 | 0.362 | -0.048 | -0.600 | 88.1 | 4.0 | 32.800 | 253 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 0.299 | -0.003 | 0.319 | 0.007 | 0.264 | 0.024 | -0.100 | 89.4 | 6.7 | 37.500 | 328 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 0.312 | 0.011 | 0.316 | 0.002 | 0.334 | 0.010 | 0.700 | 84.8 | 5.6 | 26.800 | 339 |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 0.349 | -0.010 | 0.331 | 0.040 | 0.380 | 0.031 | -0.500 | 87.8 | 7.4 | 38.600 | 298 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 0.344 | -0.039 | 0.320 | -0.010 | 0.338 | -0.059 | -1.400 | 85.9 | 8.8 | 28.900 | 342 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 0.354 | -0.029 | 0.352 | 0.009 | 0.383 | -0.050 | -2.000 | 89.1 | 5.7 | 38.700 | 424 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 0.307 | -0.010 | 0.303 | -0.007 | 0.296 | -0.011 | -0.400 | 87.2 | 4.3 | 33.500 | 460 |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | 0.375 | 0.020 | 0.322 | 0.005 | 0.432 | -0.053 | -2.600 | 89.9 | 10.9 | 36.100 | 147 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 0.367 | -0.024 | 0.387 | -0.014 | 0.367 | -0.006 | -0.200 | 89.3 | 8.3 | 39.200 | 372 |
| Jacob Turner | Tigers | 0.465 | 0.046 | 0.459 | -0.026 | 0.300 | 92 | 14.3 | 53.600 | 28 | ||
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 0.295 | 0.003 | 0.299 | 0.002 | 0.315 | 0.000 | -0.100 | 87.1 | 4.3 | 32.900 | 368 |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | 0.367 | 0.044 | 0.317 | 0.017 | 0.394 | 0.061 | -0.800 | 85.9 | 8.2 | 29.700 | 158 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 0.321 | -0.032 | 0.300 | -0.031 | 0.324 | -0.040 | -0.100 | 86.4 | 6.0 | 30.500 | 200 |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 0.338 | -0.008 | 0.319 | -0.017 | 0.280 | 0.026 | -1.100 | 89.1 | 7.0 | 41.500 | 272 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 0.268 | -0.016 | 0.249 | 0.012 | 0.289 | -0.013 | -0.700 | 86 | 8.0 | 32.900 | 350 |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 0.333 | -0.025 | 0.303 | -0.031 | 0.372 | -0.040 | -0.500 | 86.4 | 2.6 | 38.200 | 304 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 0.301 | -0.036 | 0.322 | -0.041 | 0.299 | -0.034 | -0.300 | 85.3 | 5.2 | 29.300 | 427 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 0.305 | 0.018 | 0.350 | 0.016 | 0.293 | 0.073 | 0.200 | 87.7 | 8.9 | 35.700 | 305 |
| Pablo Lopez | Marlins | 0.340 | -0.015 | 0.358 | 0.011 | 0.340 | -0.015 | 0.700 | 86.3 | 8.7 | 28.200 | 103 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 0.368 | -0.040 | 0.364 | -0.066 | 0.398 | -0.028 | -0.300 | 88.3 | 7.9 | 36.000 | 403 |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | 0.340 | -0.020 | 0.286 | 0.015 | 0.295 | -0.019 | -0.700 | 87.4 | 7.2 | 37.700 | 207 |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 0.354 | -0.013 | 0.346 | -0.003 | 0.335 | -0.018 | -1.000 | 87.8 | 8.1 | 34.900 | 384 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 0.337 | -0.059 | 0.323 | -0.037 | 0.299 | -0.026 | 0.300 | 88 | 8.5 | 38.400 | 437 |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 0.303 | -0.024 | 0.310 | -0.004 | 0.343 | -0.042 | -1.300 | 86.6 | 4.3 | 32.200 | 323 |
| Tyler Glasnow | Rays | 0.301 | 0.010 | 0.339 | 0.022 | 0.325 | 0.004 | 2.100 | 89 | 6.4 | 34.000 | 141 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 0.317 | -0.034 | 0.301 | -0.036 | 0.306 | -0.038 | -0.800 | 87.9 | 7.4 | 34.500 | 394 |
Max Scherzer is one of just three pitchers below a .300 xwOBA and the only one below .295.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Miles Mikolas (3t) has great control, excels at generating weak contact, has increased his strikeout rate, gets a park upgrade in a great matchup and costs $9K or less. The upside is limited, but I’m not sure anyone has a higher floor at a lower price.
Pablo Lopez profiles as somewhat of a league average arm so far and faces an average offense in a great park at a low price. I like him a lot as an SP2 on DK and might even consider him for FD GPPs.
Value Tier Two
Marcus Stroman costs $3K less on DraftKings. He’s just $800 above the minimum price and that’s way too cheap, even for this spot.
Value Tier Three
Nick Pivetta is a high upside arm (highest K% over the last month) in a decent spot with some run prevention issues, but no supportable reason for them.
Zack Greinke (2) is the rare high priced pitcher who costs more on FanDuel (by just $100). He’s pitching his best ball of the season over the last month and a half and going deep into games. Although the Phillies brought in some bats at the deadline, there should still be some strikeouts here.
Andrew Heaney is a slightly above average pitcher by most metrics. The downside here is that the Tigers don’t really strike out much against LHP. That’s really all the concern there is to this matchup in a pitcher friendly park.
Max Scherzer (1) is the top pitcher on the board and there’s not even an argument. There’s really hardly even any competition. The price is a bit of an issue against a contact prone team. He’s fared well against them this season, but may need to reach his ceiling to pay off his DK price.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Carlos Carrasco (3t) is pitching some of the best baseball of his life. While he certainly has upside, I’d stop short of calling him an elite pitcher. All-Star, maybe. He’s getting to a price point he may not have much value beyond against a scrappy offense in a difficult park.
Jason Vargas has some mind-boggling numbers below his surface stats. He can’t prevent runs despite a great aEV and above average SwStr%. His terrible numbers seem unsustainable. Maybe he can provide a reasonable effort at a near minimum cost in your SP2 spot.
Alex Cobb is just cheap ($4.9K on DK) in a reasonable spot and has been getting through six innings regularly recently. For less than $5K, you don’t need much more than that.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.