Advanced Stats – Pitching: Tuesday, August 8th
Tonight, we have the guy who was supposed to be running away with the AL Cy Young award and also the guy who’s made it a competition. There are other guys, including one who might have been in the conversation if he’d remained healthy all year, but that’s where the focus lies tonight. It’s an interesting comparison as both are in similarly high upside matchups with nearly identical price tags, though one of them is in a much more pitcher friendly park. First guess is that ownership will be split with a slight edge towards Sale, but I’m generally wrong on those things. Only two other pitchers on the slate come within 10 percentage points of their strikeout rates.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | WAS | 1 | 4.76 | 4.91 | 34.0% | 1.01 | 4.72 | 5.92 | MIA | 102 | 96 | 87 |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | -0.2 | 5.04 | 4.89 | 41.5% | 1.04 | 4.52 | 5.44 | MIL | 94 | 90 | 69 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 1.8 | 4.85 | 5.37 | 47.8% | 0.91 | 5.19 | 4.59 | NYM | 91 | 100 | 66 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 7.4 | 4.78 | 5.66 | 32.3% | 0.93 | 5.99 | 3.03 | OAK | 111 | 86 | 113 |
| Austin Pruitt | TAM | -0.5 | 4.01 | 4.7 | 46.2% | 0.96 | 3.87 | 4.15 | BOS | 94 | 92 | 134 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 2.4 | 4.52 | 5.77 | 49.7% | 1.03 | 4.59 | 4.22 | TOR | 93 | 96 | 120 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | -2.4 | 4.7 | 5. | 43.7% | 0.97 | 5.23 | 5.4 | DET | 89 | 94 | 65 |
| Chris Flexen | NYM | -1.6 | 6.56 | 3. | 39.1% | 0.91 | 6.56 | TEX | 81 | 97 | 99 | |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 5.4 | 2.98 | 6.96 | 39.7% | 0.96 | 3.32 | 2.94 | TAM | 109 | 94 | 91 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.3 | 3.12 | 6.75 | 44.5% | 1.09 | 3.04 | 2.15 | COL | 81 | 80 | 102 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | -5.5 | 3.48 | 6.52 | 59.1% | 0.98 | 3.59 | 5.52 | CHW | 89 | 101 | 66 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | -0.1 | 5.02 | 5.5 | 39.6% | 0.98 | 4.95 | 7.64 | HOU | 134 | 124 | 121 |
| German Marquez | COL | -3.9 | 4.19 | 5.62 | 44.3% | 1.09 | 4.4 | 3.39 | CLE | 107 | 104 | 69 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | -1.9 | 4.01 | 5.95 | 43.1% | 1.03 | 3.8 | 3.55 | NYY | 98 | 90 | 67 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 7.2 | 4.66 | 5.71 | 38.1% | 1.06 | 4.73 | 4.65 | STL | 91 | 93 | 109 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | BAL | -5.1 | 4.54 | 5.73 | 38.1% | 0.91 | 4.76 | 5.73 | ANA | 100 | 95 | 112 |
| Jose Quintana | CHC | 3.2 | 3.95 | 6.27 | 41.9% | 0.93 | 4.15 | 4.02 | SFO | 78 | 83 | 100 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | -1.8 | 4.34 | 6.07 | 39.3% | 1 | 4.4 | 4.11 | PHI | 77 | 89 | 81 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | -11.2 | 4.57 | 5.79 | 51.5% | 0.93 | 4.16 | 7.23 | SEA | 94 | 102 | 93 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 2.8 | 3.81 | 5.41 | 42.3% | 1.13 | 3.83 | 4.01 | ARI | 108 | 100 | 75 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | -5.4 | 4.1 | 5.67 | 60.6% | 1.02 | 3.88 | 5.04 | CIN | 98 | 97 | 100 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 1.7 | 4.75 | 5.08 | 38.0% | 0.97 | 4.73 | 4.74 | PIT | 90 | 95 | 80 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | -1.6 | 4.84 | 5.36 | 48.4% | 1.04 | 4.65 | 5.58 | MIN | 99 | 96 | 66 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | -1.5 | 4.26 | 5.51 | 46.5% | 1.06 | 4.08 | 3.45 | KAN | 92 | 89 | 70 |
| Parker Bridwell | ANA | 2 | 4.9 | 6.12 | 0.372 | 0.91 | 4.35 | 5.38 | BAL | 91 | 101 | 142 |
| Sal Romano | CIN | 7.3 | 5.18 | 4.53 | 0.494 | 1.02 | 6.16 | 5.48 | SDG | 80 | 87 | 75 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | -3 | 5.02 | 6.31 | 0.465 | 0.93 | 4.63 | 5.34 | CHC | 95 | 113 | 122 |
| Vance Worley | MIA | 4.9 | 4.61 | 4.91 | 0.483 | 1.01 | 4.98 | 3.39 | WAS | 115 | 107 | 77 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | 2.2 | 5.27 | 5.79 | 0.401 | 1 | 5.63 | ATL | 87 | 86 | 79 | |
| Zack Godley | ARI | -5.4 | 3.95 | 5.7 | 0.533 | 1.13 | 4.04 | 3.7 | LOS | 104 | 110 | 113 |
Austin Pruitt allowed three HRs in his second start of the season a couple of weeks back, but struck out seven of 21 batters. He only struck out three of 24 last time out, but threw 6.1 shutout innings. These two starts have taken place in New York (AL) and Houston. While most of his work has been done out of the pen this year, he does have a league average SwStr% and 13.2 K-BB%. While he finally gets to start a game in his home park, it’s against a below average offense, but one that doesn’t strike out a lot and has suddenly found some power over the last week (19.6 HR/FB, 21.0 Hard-Soft%).
Chris Sale leads the majors with a 31.4 K-BB% (third with a 15.5 SwStr%). He’s a fly ball pitcher (36.2 GB%) with average contact management. When you’re striking out that many, contact management only needs to be somewhere around average. He’s in an interesting spot in Tampa Bay tonight. It’s a park upgrade against an offense with power (37.3 Hard% at home), but less with a ton of strikeouts against LHP (25.6 K%).
Corey Kluber matches up with any pitcher in the majors in terms of peripherals (30.0 K-BB% is second, 16.2 SwStr% is first), while his Statcast contact rates are nearly identical to Sale’s with a ground ball rate 12 points higher. The only real difference is that Sale has about 30 innings on him. While he has the worse run environment tonight (if we’re comparing the two), the opposing matchup is better. The Rockies strike out nearly as much (24.5% on the road) with much less offensive proficiency on the road.
Dallas Keuchel has allowed three ERs (eight total innings) with as many walks as strikeouts in each of his two starts since returning from a neck issue. His last start was his lowest velocity of the season (87.6 mph), though not terrible and only a mile per hour off his season average. The good news is that he was up to a 60 GB% and 0.0 Hard-Soft% last time out. Baby steps. His 84.1 mph aEV is lowest on the board. The White Sox have a 23.8 K-BB% and 8.1 HR/FB over the last week.
J.A. Happ struck out a season high 10, tying a season high seven innings last time out. It was his first double digit SwStr% since the end of June. While one start is not going to change our thoughts on him, he does have a 15.1 K-BB% this season with average contact management. The thing to like here though, is the matchup. The Yankees have a 21.5 K-BB% and 0.0 Hard-Soft% over the last week and just a 29% hard hit rate with a 23 K% vs LHP this year. They haven’t been good against LHP despite their predominance of RH power bats this year.
Jose Quintana has allowed five of his 19 HRs this year in four starts since joining the Cubs, three in his last start. At least that should rectify itself in San Francisco (5.9 HR/FB at home). While his Statcast rates aren’t great, this is a terrific spot for him to be. While I’m not buying into his strikeout rate entirely, at least he’s been in double digits in three of his last five starts, though 5.1% or below in his other two.
Kenta Maeda is the top contact generator on the board. His 2.9% Barrels/BBE and 27.2% 95+ mph EV top the board while his 84.3 mph aEV misses by a fraction. The profile can survive Arizona. The other bit of good news is that his SwStr rate has been above 8% in three of his last four starts despite the 6.7% mark over the last month. Not what it was earlier in the season, but still acceptable if near league average with that type of contact management. While the Diamondbacks destroy the ball at home (23.9 Hard-Soft%), they may supply a few strikeouts (23 K% at home and vs RHP).
Michael Wacha lasted just four innings (81 pitches) despite allowing just one run in Milwaukee last time out. Perhaps the three walks led to his early exit, but it was his first start with more than two walks since mid-June, rectifying his biggest issue this season. He’s quietly having a very nice year (16.0 K-BB%, 29.7% 95+ mph EV). One slight concern may be his defense in a big park. The Royals don’t walk a lot (another factor in his favor) and have a team -1.6 Hard-Soft% over the last week.
Zack Godley has the third best SwStr% on the board. How he and Quintana have the same strikeout rate is a mystery. Aside from the top two, they’re the only other two pitchers to exceed a 25 K% today. He combines that with a 56.1 GB% and 84.8 mph aEV, enabling his survival in a tough park. It gets a bit tougher tonight against the Dodgers. It may even be the worst matchup on the board with Houston missing a couple of bats. The Dodgers have a double digit walk rate and a 39 Hard% over the last week.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Jason Vargas (.282 – 83% – 9.4) may be able to get away with a few less HRs in that park and even has a league average SwStr% this season to go with 16 pop-ups (free outs). He’s a solid contact manager in a decent spot against the Cardinals, but is sufficiently priced around $8K. He exceeded four strikeouts for the first time since mid-June last time out.
Ariel Miranda (.229 – 76.2% – 14.3) seems to have had a strikeout spike over the last month and indeed he has had at least a 14% SwStr rate in four of his last five starts, but has only struck out more than six in one of those outings. One issue is that he only completed six innings in one of those starts (the one in which he struck out 10) and has allowed 16 HRs over his last 10 starts.
Matt Garza (.274 – 71.9% – 8.8) has never really been a guy who limits HRs, while it’s even less likely in Milwaukee. He’s on the road tonight against a cold offense and does have just an 84.9 mph aEV this year, but not nearly enough strikeouts.
Parker Bridwell (.272 – 86.9% – 14.1) could find a few more strikeouts with a league average SwStr% and is in nice park for a fly ball pitcher (38.1 GB%), but does allow a bit too much hard contact (88.9 mph aEV) against the hottest offense in the majors (17.8 K% and HR/FB over the last week).
Andrew Cashner (.275 – 76% – 7.5) has allowed 3.5% Barrels/BBE and while he does have a 50.4 GB%, every other part of his contact management seems just average, while he has a 2.7 K-BB%. I have no idea how he’s sustaining this. Perhaps a Mets offense that torches ground ball pitchers (129 sOPS+) will change things.
Jeremy Hellickson (.253 – 74.7% – 13.4) is slowly bringing up his strikeout rate, though he somehow managed to throw seven shutout innings in his Baltimore debut with just three of them and a 27.3 GB%. A fly ball tendency could serve him better in L.A. tonight, but it’s another spot where strikeouts could be down enough to render him useless for daily fantasy purposes (Angels 14.8 K% over the last week).
Ty Blach (.297 – 67.4% – 7.6)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
German Marquez is likely to be the pitcher who I most regret omitting tonight. He does allow a lot of hard contact (88.8 mph aEV) and that rate is actually a bit higher on the road. While he’s outside of Coors tonight, Cleveland is certainly not a friendly environment for a starting pitcher. He snapped a three game streak with at least nine strikeouts last time out, but has the second highest SwStr% and third highest K% on the board over the last month. I may be over-estimating the spot. The Tribe has a 21.1 K-BB% over the last week. I’m going to be wavering on him for the rest of the afternoon most likely.
Julio Teheran has been missing more bats recently with at least an 8% SwStr rate in each of his last seven starts and above 14% in three of them, but has still allowed seven HRs over his last three starts, three of them in Philly. Not that that’s necessarily going to repeat today. The Phillies do have a 15.2 K-BB% vs RHP and 5.5 HR/FB over the last week. I don’t like him, but don’t necessarily mind him too much for $6.9K either.
Matt Boyd has a 31.8 GB% and -8.8 Hard-Soft% since returning to the big leagues a little over three weeks ago, combining it with a 14.1 K-BB%. While Pittsburgh is a great spot for a LH fly ball pitcher, it’s not an offense that strikes out a lot. They will take walks though and that has occasionally been a problem for him (three or four walks in six of 15 starts this year and two of his last three). He’s climbing the ladder though.
Luis Perdomo generates so many ground balls (63%), but does not really excel at managing contact authority and is just not striking out enough batters anymore to be daily fantasy useful.
Chris Flexen had a 24.0 K-BB% in seven AA starts before a surprising promotion to the majors after which he has struggled (-3.0 K-BB) through two starts. While his first start in San Diego was all over the place, it may be unfair to judge him on a start in Coors in which he endured a blister the second time out. That, of course, presents a potential problem in and of itself having occurred just a week ago, but a home start against a Texas offense with a 26.2 K% on the road, 3.6 BB% over the last week and no DH tonight may be a better judge of his ability tonight.
C.C. Sabathia hasn’t had a terrible season and has done so mostly by managing contact decently (85.9 mph aEV, 4.0% Barrels/BBE), while getting a few strikeouts when he needs them. While his peripherals are similar either way, all 12 of his HRs have been surrendered to RHBs this year, who have a hard hit rate over 20 points better than LHBs against him. There’s a good chance a hot Toronto lineup will be entirely stacked with RHBs.
Adalberto Mejia has not completed six innings in a month and has only done so four times this year.
Chad Kuhl has an increased strikeout rate over the last month, but decreased SwStr%. Hard contact against RHBs is generally muffled in this park, which gives him a bit of an edge against the Tigers here, but they should be looking to employ any LHBs they have (.369 wOBA, 37.3 GB%, 36.2 Hard%).
Sal Romano has struck out batters at a league average clip and has even walked one of fewer in three of his six starts. If he does that, he’s in a great spot against the Padres (25.4 K% vs RHP, -2.0 Hard-Soft% last seven days), but he’s also walked 15 in his other three starts and that could be a disaster in such a power friendly park.
A.J. Cole has walked more than he’s struck out in two starts this year and had just an 8.4 K-BB% at AAA.
Vance Worley has a 4.8 SwStr% and 89.2 mph aEV with 43.4% 95+ mph EV. How the hell is he starting in the majors? How the hell does he have league average estimators?
Zach Efflin
Kendall Graveman was torched for seven runs in his return from the DL, lasting two innings without a single swing and miss.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | Nationals | L2 Years | 21.2% | 10.1% | Home | 23.0% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 16.0% |
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | L2 Years | 18.3% | 10.3% | Home | 21.0% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 10.9% |
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 17.2% | 9.9% | Road | 14.8% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 15.7% | 3.9% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 19.6% | 7.7% | Road | 16.3% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 31.9% | 2.1% |
| Austin Pruitt | Rays | L2 Years | 18.8% | 5.6% | Home | 20.0% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 6.7% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 18.9% | 9.0% | Road | 18.5% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 4.7% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 18.5% | 8.6% | Home | 16.4% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 14.0% |
| Chris Flexen | Mets | L2 Years | 11.8% | 14.7% | Home | L14 Days | 11.8% | 14.7% | ||
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 30.2% | 4.9% | Road | 29.5% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 32.0% | 4.0% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 29.8% | 6.2% | Home | 31.1% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 38.3% | 3.3% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 22.2% | 6.4% | Road | 21.1% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 11.9% | 11.9% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 16.0% | 8.5% | Home | 16.8% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 5.7% | 17.0% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 21.4% | 7.3% | Road | 22.7% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 5.9% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 22.0% | 6.8% | Home | 22.2% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 9.1% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 18.3% | 6.6% | Home | 18.1% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 17.8% | 8.9% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Orioles | L2 Years | 17.6% | 5.9% | Road | 15.7% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 3.7% |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.7% | 6.7% | Road | 22.8% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 8.2% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 20.2% | 7.1% | Home | 20.6% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 20.9% | 4.7% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 14.3% | 6.2% | Home | 15.3% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 6.7% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 24.3% | 6.8% | Road | 23.6% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 6.4% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 16.5% | 7.6% | Road | 17.5% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 12.7% | 7.3% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Years | 18.3% | 8.4% | Road | 19.5% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 8.2% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 15.5% | 8.0% | Road | 14.3% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 9.1% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 20.6% | 8.3% | Road | 20.0% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 10.0% |
| Parker Bridwell | Angels | L2 Years | 16.1% | 6.7% | Home | 16.3% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 8.2% |
| Sal Romano | Reds | L2 Years | 20.3% | 13.3% | Home | 19.4% | 16.1% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 13.0% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 12.4% | 5.5% | Home | 13.8% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 11.9% | 5.1% |
| Vance Worley | Marlins | L2 Years | 16.2% | 8.6% | Road | 14.9% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 4.7% |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | L2 Years | 11.7% | 5.4% | Road | 9.6% | 5.9% | L14 Days | ||
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 22.1% | 8.4% | Home | 21.1% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 8.3% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | Road | 20.4% | 6.4% | RH | 20.6% | 7.4% | L7Days | 21.1% | 7.3% |
| Brewers | Road | 25.2% | 8.7% | LH | 26.7% | 8.8% | L7Days | 31.2% | 9.2% |
| Mets | Home | 20.1% | 8.3% | RH | 19.2% | 8.9% | L7Days | 29.0% | 6.5% |
| Athletics | Home | 24.4% | 9.6% | LH | 24.4% | 8.9% | L7Days | 21.2% | 9.5% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.1% | 8.7% | RH | 19.1% | 8.7% | L7Days | 19.9% | 7.7% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 20.4% | 8.7% | LH | 21.3% | 10.8% | L7Days | 17.5% | 11.8% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.9% | 8.9% | RH | 22.0% | 9.3% | L7Days | 21.8% | 7.3% |
| Rangers | Road | 26.2% | 7.9% | RH | 23.8% | 8.8% | L7Days | 23.7% | 3.6% |
| Rays | Home | 24.7% | 9.7% | LH | 25.6% | 10.0% | L7Days | 21.2% | 8.4% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.5% | 7.5% | RH | 22.7% | 7.7% | L7Days | 20.0% | 10.0% |
| White Sox | Home | 23.3% | 7.3% | LH | 22.1% | 6.7% | L7Days | 28.6% | 4.8% |
| Astros | Road | 17.8% | 8.4% | LH | 17.0% | 8.6% | L7Days | 17.6% | 7.3% |
| Indians | Home | 19.2% | 10.0% | RH | 19.6% | 9.4% | L7Days | 27.4% | 6.3% |
| Yankees | Road | 22.6% | 9.1% | LH | 23.0% | 10.5% | L7Days | 27.5% | 6.0% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.8% | 8.9% | LH | 21.1% | 10.2% | L7Days | 23.6% | 11.3% |
| Angels | Home | 18.2% | 7.7% | RH | 19.6% | 7.9% | L7Days | 14.8% | 8.0% |
| Giants | Home | 19.1% | 7.0% | LH | 19.1% | 7.8% | L7Days | 18.1% | 7.9% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.0% | 7.6% | RH | 23.2% | 8.0% | L7Days | 18.8% | 6.3% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.2% | 7.2% | RH | 21.3% | 7.7% | L7Days | 17.5% | 6.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 23.0% | 9.7% | RH | 22.9% | 9.5% | L7Days | 24.3% | 9.2% |
| Reds | Home | 21.5% | 9.2% | RH | 20.7% | 8.9% | L7Days | 18.3% | 9.5% |
| Pirates | Home | 17.8% | 9.0% | LH | 19.4% | 10.2% | L7Days | 15.2% | 8.7% |
| Twins | Home | 21.2% | 10.1% | RH | 22.4% | 9.8% | L7Days | 17.6% | 8.4% |
| Royals | Home | 18.9% | 6.8% | RH | 20.4% | 6.4% | L7Days | 17.3% | 5.2% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.0% | 6.4% | RH | 21.6% | 6.8% | L7Days | 17.8% | 7.2% |
| Padres | Road | 26.1% | 7.3% | RH | 25.4% | 7.7% | L7Days | 24.0% | 7.9% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.7% | 9.5% | LH | 21.8% | 12.0% | L7Days | 25.7% | 9.0% |
| Nationals | Home | 20.0% | 9.0% | RH | 20.0% | 9.0% | L7Days | 19.6% | 6.5% |
| Braves | Home | 19.7% | 7.1% | RH | 20.0% | 7.0% | L7Days | 18.1% | 7.6% |
| Dodgers | Road | 22.7% | 10.9% | RH | 22.7% | 10.4% | L7Days | 25.1% | 10.4% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | Nationals | L2 Years | 27.2% | 11.8% | 8.1% | 2017 | 32.4% | 14.3% | 11.8% | Home | 28.3% | 10.3% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 22.2% | 0.0% |
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | L2 Years | 32.2% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 2017 | 31.8% | 12.9% | 11.5% | Home | 33.9% | 15.3% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 7.7% | 15.2% |
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 32.9% | 11.2% | 16.4% | 2017 | 29.5% | 7.5% | 11.0% | Road | 33.5% | 10.6% | 17.9% | L14 Days | 28.2% | 6.3% | 10.2% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 31.9% | 14.1% | 11.6% | 2017 | 29.6% | 14.3% | 8.1% | Road | 31.3% | 15.1% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 45.2% | 26.3% | 16.2% |
| Austin Pruitt | Rays | L2 Years | 32.2% | 11.9% | 15.1% | 2017 | 32.2% | 11.9% | 15.1% | Home | 29.8% | 0.0% | 19.2% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 21.4% | 12.5% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 26.5% | 12.5% | 3.1% | 2017 | 30.6% | 13.6% | 8.0% | Road | 25.9% | 9.4% | 1.4% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 42.9% | -14.3% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 33.0% | 8.5% | 14.4% | 2017 | 32.9% | 8.3% | 15.1% | Home | 33.3% | 11.6% | 17.2% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 0.0% | -3.0% |
| Chris Flexen | Mets | L2 Years | 37.5% | 25.0% | 16.7% | 2017 | 37.5% | 25.0% | 16.7% | Home | L14 Days | 37.5% | 25.0% | 16.7% | |||
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 30.6% | 11.3% | 13.4% | 2017 | 28.9% | 8.8% | 10.9% | Road | 30.0% | 5.7% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 16.1% | 14.3% | -3.3% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 28.7% | 12.6% | 8.5% | 2017 | 30.2% | 14.4% | 7.9% | Home | 26.7% | 11.7% | 3.3% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 20.0% | 11.8% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 27.1% | 16.5% | 3.0% | 2017 | 23.5% | 19.0% | -4.8% | Road | 29.1% | 21.5% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 40.6% | 28.6% | 21.8% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 34.8% | 14.8% | 17.6% | 2017 | 37.3% | 18.4% | 18.0% | Home | 33.4% | 11.7% | 16.7% | L14 Days | 32.5% | 16.7% | 15.0% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 34.2% | 10.9% | 19.2% | 2017 | 35.3% | 10.2% | 20.0% | Road | 37.4% | 8.1% | 22.9% | L14 Days | 24.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 31.5% | 11.7% | 12.9% | 2017 | 29.7% | 16.9% | 9.0% | Home | 34.1% | 13.0% | 17.5% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 0.0% | -5.7% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 30.5% | 9.1% | 12.2% | 2017 | 30.2% | 9.4% | 11.6% | Home | 31.0% | 7.8% | 16.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 12.5% | 6.0% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Orioles | L2 Years | 28.8% | 12.8% | 9.5% | 2017 | 30.5% | 13.4% | 11.9% | Road | 30.9% | 13.1% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 0.0% | -9.1% |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | L2 Years | 32.7% | 10.9% | 14.8% | 2017 | 33.1% | 14.6% | 15.7% | Road | 31.4% | 6.3% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 46.9% | 27.3% | 37.5% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 31.6% | 12.7% | 12.4% | 2017 | 30.8% | 17.4% | 9.2% | Home | 31.8% | 13.8% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 36.4% | -6.6% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 30.0% | 13.7% | 12.3% | 2017 | 33.1% | 14.3% | 13.7% | Home | 28.1% | 11.5% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 25.0% | 21.4% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 28.2% | 11.9% | 8.4% | 2017 | 26.8% | 12.0% | 7.3% | Road | 30.5% | 14.6% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 0.0% | 14.7% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 33.5% | 19.7% | 16.4% | 2017 | 32.6% | 16.4% | 14.9% | Road | 33.3% | 23.3% | 17.0% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 10.0% | 20.5% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Years | 32.9% | 12.7% | 13.4% | 2017 | 36.7% | 9.3% | 16.2% | Road | 31.5% | 10.2% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 5.3% | -3.0% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 34.3% | 10.5% | 16.0% | 2017 | 32.6% | 8.8% | 14.7% | Road | 30.6% | 8.2% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 29.8% | 13.1% | 9.8% | 2017 | 28.8% | 12.0% | 8.7% | Road | 28.8% | 14.0% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 33.3% | 3.9% |
| Parker Bridwell | Angels | L2 Years | 36.6% | 15.6% | 23.7% | 2017 | 35.5% | 14.1% | 22.4% | Home | 34.8% | 21.1% | 21.8% | L14 Days | 40.5% | 5.9% | 29.7% |
| Sal Romano | Reds | L2 Years | 28.6% | 10.0% | 6.0% | 2017 | 28.6% | 10.0% | 6.0% | Home | 33.3% | 17.6% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 21.9% | 0.0% | -3.1% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 31.5% | 7.5% | 11.2% | 2017 | 31.7% | 7.6% | 12.0% | Home | 29.9% | 4.5% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 38.8% | 5.3% | 22.5% |
| Vance Worley | Marlins | L2 Years | 33.9% | 10.8% | 18.3% | 2017 | 41.9% | 8.8% | 27.9% | Road | 35.2% | 16.9% | 22.3% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 20.0% | 11.7% |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | L2 Years | 33.9% | 15.5% | 17.2% | 2017 | 34.7% | 18.6% | 19.1% | Road | 38.2% | 11.9% | 23.1% | L14 Days | |||
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 30.0% | 15.0% | 11.3% | 2017 | 28.3% | 10.7% | 7.5% | Home | 36.7% | 18.8% | 24.0% | L14 Days | 21.9% | 0.0% | 3.1% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | Road | 30.3% | 14.7% | 10.5% | RH | 32.0% | 15.0% | 12.1% | L7Days | 31.6% | 14.1% | 10.9% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.8% | 17.8% | 12.8% | LH | 34.9% | 15.9% | 16.6% | L7Days | 36.1% | 16.3% | 24.5% |
| Mets | Home | 33.8% | 11.4% | 14.9% | RH | 34.9% | 12.8% | 17.7% | L7Days | 36.0% | 16.0% | 18.0% |
| Athletics | Home | 32.0% | 14.9% | 16.9% | LH | 32.2% | 9.5% | 14.1% | L7Days | 39.2% | 10.1% | 26.5% |
| Red Sox | Road | 31.8% | 11.4% | 11.5% | RH | 34.0% | 11.0% | 16.0% | L7Days | 32.6% | 19.6% | 21.0% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 29.9% | 14.3% | 10.2% | LH | 30.1% | 12.6% | 11.7% | L7Days | 26.4% | 16.4% | 0.0% |
| Tigers | Road | 34.7% | 12.4% | 17.3% | RH | 40.1% | 11.5% | 24.6% | L7Days | 30.1% | 18.2% | 10.8% |
| Rangers | Road | 30.6% | 16.0% | 10.2% | RH | 34.3% | 17.5% | 15.3% | L7Days | 35.9% | 17.7% | 17.9% |
| Rays | Home | 37.3% | 15.5% | 19.2% | LH | 33.9% | 12.7% | 12.3% | L7Days | 27.9% | 8.3% | 9.7% |
| Rockies | Road | 29.4% | 11.4% | 8.4% | RH | 30.4% | 13.1% | 10.6% | L7Days | 34.8% | 11.1% | 13.9% |
| White Sox | Home | 28.4% | 13.2% | 6.5% | LH | 28.1% | 13.8% | 8.0% | L7Days | 28.9% | 8.1% | 10.1% |
| Astros | Road | 33.5% | 15.8% | 15.1% | LH | 28.5% | 15.4% | 9.1% | L7Days | 27.4% | 17.9% | 9.1% |
| Indians | Home | 31.2% | 12.5% | 13.3% | RH | 33.7% | 11.9% | 16.9% | L7Days | 26.7% | 15.9% | 8.6% |
| Yankees | Road | 31.2% | 12.1% | 12.5% | LH | 29.0% | 12.2% | 7.7% | L7Days | 23.8% | 11.4% | 0.0% |
| Cardinals | Road | 31.4% | 13.0% | 13.7% | LH | 33.6% | 12.7% | 16.2% | L7Days | 27.6% | 10.9% | 10.4% |
| Angels | Home | 29.2% | 13.1% | 10.4% | RH | 31.0% | 13.2% | 11.5% | L7Days | 30.0% | 10.8% | 9.5% |
| Giants | Home | 25.4% | 5.9% | 4.6% | LH | 28.3% | 8.2% | 8.9% | L7Days | 28.4% | 11.9% | 14.5% |
| Phillies | Road | 30.6% | 9.8% | 9.6% | RH | 30.4% | 11.5% | 9.7% | L7Days | 30.4% | 5.5% | 8.4% |
| Mariners | Road | 31.8% | 11.4% | 13.7% | RH | 30.3% | 12.2% | 12.1% | L7Days | 30.2% | 9.7% | 10.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 38.2% | 16.2% | 23.9% | RH | 35.2% | 14.6% | 17.9% | L7Days | 32.0% | 10.4% | 13.7% |
| Reds | Home | 28.4% | 15.4% | 7.0% | RH | 29.7% | 14.4% | 9.3% | L7Days | 28.2% | 18.2% | 9.0% |
| Pirates | Home | 29.4% | 9.2% | 7.9% | LH | 30.7% | 13.1% | 10.3% | L7Days | 27.4% | 7.6% | 4.6% |
| Twins | Home | 33.7% | 11.4% | 16.7% | RH | 32.9% | 12.1% | 16.0% | L7Days | 32.8% | 10.6% | 13.8% |
| Royals | Home | 30.5% | 11.1% | 10.2% | RH | 31.5% | 12.3% | 12.0% | L7Days | 24.1% | 13.5% | -1.6% |
| Orioles | Road | 34.6% | 13.8% | 14.9% | RH | 32.2% | 16.0% | 11.9% | L7Days | 31.1% | 17.8% | 14.8% |
| Padres | Road | 30.2% | 14.6% | 8.0% | RH | 29.1% | 13.8% | 6.4% | L7Days | 33.1% | 13.2% | -2.0% |
| Cubs | Road | 29.8% | 15.0% | 10.5% | LH | 29.7% | 19.2% | 10.1% | L7Days | 32.4% | 25.5% | 15.6% |
| Nationals | Home | 32.3% | 15.2% | 15.9% | RH | 31.8% | 15.5% | 14.8% | L7Days | 26.3% | 15.7% | 8.3% |
| Braves | Home | 29.3% | 12.1% | 9.7% | RH | 30.7% | 11.3% | 12.1% | L7Days | 32.5% | 11.8% | 15.0% |
| Dodgers | Road | 34.5% | 15.4% | 18.5% | RH | 36.0% | 15.3% | 20.3% | L7Days | 39.0% | 19.7% | 21.2% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | WAS | 14.3% | 8.7% | 1.64 | 20.0% | 12.4% | 1.61 |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 18.9% | 9.6% | 1.97 | 20.0% | 11.1% | 1.80 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 12.3% | 5.9% | 2.08 | 14.7% | 5.7% | 2.58 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 19.9% | 10.6% | 1.88 | 25.3% | 13.3% | 1.90 |
| Austin Pruitt | TAM | 18.8% | 10.3% | 1.83 | 22.2% | 10.8% | 2.06 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 18.4% | 8.8% | 2.09 | 15.6% | 9.3% | 1.68 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 19.1% | 10.1% | 1.89 | 21.6% | 7.6% | 2.84 |
| Chris Flexen | NYM | 11.8% | 10.5% | 1.12 | 11.8% | 10.5% | 1.12 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 36.1% | 15.5% | 2.33 | 36.9% | 12.1% | 3.05 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 35.8% | 16.2% | 2.21 | 41.6% | 18.5% | 2.25 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.26 | 11.9% | 7.2% | 1.65 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 16.8% | 7.5% | 2.24 | 7.1% | 5.3% | 1.34 |
| German Marquez | COL | 22.7% | 9.7% | 2.34 | 31.1% | 14.0% | 2.22 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 21.6% | 9.3% | 2.32 | 17.7% | 8.1% | 2.19 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 17.9% | 10.0% | 1.79 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 1.69 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | BAL | 13.6% | 8.3% | 1.64 | 21.4% | 9.2% | 2.33 |
| Jose Quintana | CHC | 26.0% | 8.7% | 2.99 | 34.8% | 10.3% | 3.38 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 17.4% | 9.1% | 1.91 | 19.7% | 11.0% | 1.79 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 15.3% | 7.1% | 2.15 | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 23.0% | 12.4% | 1.85 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 2.90 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 17.4% | 9.3% | 1.87 | 11.0% | 8.6% | 1.28 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 16.6% | 9.3% | 1.78 | 22.2% | 12.3% | 1.80 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 16.4% | 8.2% | 2.00 | 14.1% | 6.1% | 2.31 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 23.9% | 10.1% | 2.37 | 25.3% | 11.1% | 2.28 |
| Parker Bridwell | ANA | 15.9% | 9.6% | 1.66 | 19.0% | 9.9% | 1.92 |
| Sal Romano | CIN | 20.3% | 8.4% | 2.42 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 2.25 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 11.9% | 6.8% | 1.75 | 14.7% | 6.6% | 2.23 |
| Vance Worley | MIA | 18.3% | 4.8% | 3.81 | 15.3% | 4.0% | 3.83 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | 12.1% | 7.1% | 1.70 | |||
| Zack Godley | ARI | 26.0% | 14.0% | 1.86 | 30.7% | 13.9% | 2.21 |
Chris Sale seen his SwStr% decline in four straight starts and suffered his first single digit SwStr rate of the season (7.5%) in his last start. While we can say that his velocity is down from his season rate, it actually dropped off significantly in his June 20th start and has been slowly climbing back ever since without any noticeable performance consequences until now.
Jose Quintana and Zack Godley have the same strikeout rate, though one has a SwStr rate 60% higher.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | WAS | 4.91 | 6.5 | 1.59 | 6.32 | 1.41 | 6.42 | 1.51 | 5.92 | 1.01 | 9 | 5.92 | -3.08 | 6.75 | -2.25 | 8.74 | -0.26 |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 4.3 | 4.98 | 0.68 | 4.97 | 0.67 | 4.85 | 0.55 | 5.02 | 0.72 | 4.26 | 4.66 | 0.4 | 4.46 | 0.2 | 3.66 | -0.6 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 3.36 | 5.5 | 2.14 | 5.2 | 1.84 | 4.4 | 1.04 | 5.28 | 1.92 | 2.81 | 4.84 | 2.03 | 4.76 | 1.95 | 4.04 | 1.23 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 4.41 | 4.78 | 0.37 | 5.17 | 0.76 | 5.28 | 0.87 | 4.99 | 0.58 | 5.56 | 4.01 | -1.55 | 4.57 | -0.99 | 5.53 | -0.03 |
| Austin Pruitt | TAM | 5.65 | 4.01 | -1.64 | 4.14 | -1.51 | 3.91 | -1.74 | 4.74 | -0.91 | 3.97 | 4.15 | 0.18 | 4.37 | 0.4 | 5.61 | 1.64 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 3.81 | 4.65 | 0.84 | 4.41 | 0.6 | 4.4 | 0.59 | 4.76 | 0.95 | 3.8 | 5.09 | 1.29 | 4.71 | 0.91 | 5.21 | 1.41 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 4.53 | 4.84 | 0.31 | 4.64 | 0.11 | 3.94 | -0.59 | 4.53 | 0.00 | 3 | 4.76 | 1.76 | 4.34 | 1.34 | 2.96 | -0.04 |
| Chris Flexen | NYM | 12 | 6.56 | -5.44 | 7.18 | -4.82 | 9.14 | -2.86 | 8.58 | -3.42 | 12 | 6.56 | -5.44 | 7.18 | -4.82 | 9.14 | -2.86 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 2.7 | 2.54 | -0.16 | 2.69 | -0.01 | 2.07 | -0.63 | 1.90 | -0.80 | 2.45 | 2.6 | 0.15 | 2.87 | 0.42 | 2.01 | -0.44 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 2.77 | 2.6 | -0.17 | 2.38 | -0.39 | 2.46 | -0.31 | 2.10 | -0.67 | 2.55 | 2.07 | -0.48 | 1.75 | -0.8 | 2.44 | -0.11 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 2.15 | 3.39 | 1.24 | 3.13 | 0.98 | 3.48 | 1.33 | 2.33 | 0.18 | 6.75 | 5.52 | -1.23 | 5.33 | -1.42 | 7.02 | 0.27 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 5.27 | 5.25 | -0.02 | 5.41 | 0.14 | 6.18 | 0.91 | 7.26 | 1.99 | 6.86 | 6.99 | 0.13 | 7.16 | 0.3 | 8.95 | 2.09 |
| German Marquez | COL | 4.11 | 4.17 | 0.06 | 4.2 | 0.09 | 3.73 | -0.38 | 4.94 | 0.83 | 3.38 | 3.16 | -0.22 | 2.97 | -0.41 | 3.03 | -0.35 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 3.92 | 4.1 | 0.18 | 3.97 | 0.05 | 4.4 | 0.48 | 4.26 | 0.34 | 4.82 | 4.94 | 0.12 | 4.8 | -0.02 | 5.68 | 0.86 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 3.1 | 4.73 | 1.63 | 4.81 | 1.71 | 4.09 | 0.99 | 3.88 | 0.78 | 5.79 | 5.29 | -0.5 | 5.09 | -0.7 | 5.87 | 0.08 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | BAL | 4.45 | 5.3 | 0.85 | 5.4 | 0.95 | 5.36 | 0.91 | 5.25 | 0.80 | 4.24 | 4.28 | 0.04 | 4.35 | 0.11 | 3.79 | -0.45 |
| Jose Quintana | CHC | 4.42 | 3.94 | -0.48 | 3.91 | -0.51 | 4.03 | -0.39 | 4.00 | -0.42 | 4.3 | 2.87 | -1.43 | 2.91 | -1.39 | 3.93 | -0.37 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 5.1 | 4.99 | -0.11 | 5.1 | 0 | 5.7 | 0.6 | 5.06 | -0.04 | 4.97 | 4.33 | -0.64 | 4.28 | -0.69 | 5.69 | 0.72 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 4.96 | 4.83 | -0.13 | 4.66 | -0.3 | 4.73 | -0.23 | 3.93 | -1.03 | 31.5 | 7.23 | -24.27 | 8.2 | -23.3 | 11.14 | -20.36 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 3.79 | 4.03 | 0.24 | 4.04 | 0.25 | 3.81 | 0.02 | 3.99 | 0.20 | 1.06 | 4.13 | 3.07 | 3.79 | 2.73 | 3.08 | 2.02 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 4.92 | 4.2 | -0.72 | 4.05 | -0.87 | 4.27 | -0.65 | 5.69 | 0.77 | 6.43 | 5.49 | -0.94 | 5.16 | -1.27 | 4.62 | -1.81 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 5.35 | 5.11 | -0.24 | 5.09 | -0.26 | 4.38 | -0.97 | 6.07 | 0.72 | 4.56 | 4.5 | -0.06 | 4.91 | 0.35 | 3.52 | -1.04 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 3.68 | 4.93 | 1.25 | 4.76 | 1.08 | 4.03 | 0.35 | 4.39 | 0.71 | 2.3 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 6.37 | 4.07 | 4.36 | 2.06 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 3.66 | 3.96 | 0.3 | 3.66 | 0 | 3.48 | -0.18 | 4.10 | 0.44 | 2.16 | 3.41 | 1.25 | 3.1 | 0.94 | 3.38 | 1.22 |
| Parker Bridwell | ANA | 3.2 | 4.94 | 1.74 | 4.91 | 1.71 | 4.97 | 1.77 | 5.66 | 2.46 | 3.16 | 4.54 | 1.38 | 4.44 | 1.28 | 3.88 | 0.72 |
| Sal Romano | CIN | 4.88 | 5.18 | 0.3 | 5.15 | 0.27 | 4.62 | -0.26 | 5.89 | 1.01 | 5.03 | 5.2 | 0.17 | 5.04 | 0.01 | 3.8 | -1.23 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 4.24 | 5.09 | 0.85 | 4.75 | 0.51 | 3.89 | -0.35 | 6.04 | 1.80 | 3.1 | 4.79 | 1.69 | 4.39 | 1.29 | 3.38 | 0.28 |
| Vance Worley | MIA | 5.31 | 4.12 | -1.19 | 4.09 | -1.22 | 3.56 | -1.75 | 5.21 | -0.10 | 3.6 | 3.52 | -0.08 | 3.57 | -0.03 | 3.61 | 0.01 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | 6.13 | 5.08 | -1.05 | 5.21 | -0.92 | 6.02 | -0.11 | 6.46 | 0.33 | |||||||
| Zack Godley | ARI | 2.86 | 3.57 | 0.71 | 3.21 | 0.35 | 2.98 | 0.12 | 2.85 | -0.01 | 3.65 | 3.27 | -0.38 | 2.76 | -0.89 | 2.66 | -0.99 |
Austin Pruitt has a .362 BABIP and 60.3 LOB%. Reliever ERAs are hardly a strong evaluation tool. He’s allowed a bit too much hard contact, showing up in a high line drive rate, but gets a lot of pop-ups too.
Chris Sale has just an 8.8 HR/FB. Sustainable? Boston isn’t really very power friendly. DRA likes him even more than FIP.
Dallas Keuchel has a .242 BABIP. He has induced just two popups this year, so perhaps that’s a bit low, but his contact management has otherwise been among the best in the majors. An 86.7 LOB% is non-negotiable.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | WAS | 0.293 | 0.313 | 0.02 | 41.2% | 0.176 | 14.3% | 93.3% | 89.9 | 2.90% | 41.20% | 34 |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 0.298 | 0.309 | 0.011 | 41.9% | 0.221 | 11.8% | 86.1% | 87.2 | 6.90% | 33.30% | 261 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 0.289 | 0.275 | -0.014 | 50.4% | 0.187 | 6.6% | 93.3% | 86.6 | 3.50% | 33.50% | 346 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 0.279 | 0.229 | -0.05 | 32.9% | 0.153 | 14.3% | 84.1% | 86.7 | 8.60% | 31.70% | 372 |
| Austin Pruitt | TAM | 0.284 | 0.362 | 0.078 | 46.2% | 0.248 | 14.3% | 91.4% | 87.8 | 6.80% | 32.20% | 146 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.290 | 0.270 | -0.02 | 50.7% | 0.196 | 5.7% | 87.6% | 85.9 | 4.00% | 31.20% | 301 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 0.308 | 0.320 | 0.012 | 43.3% | 0.229 | 7.3% | 86.1% | 87.4 | 4.80% | 37.50% | 331 |
| Chris Flexen | NYM | 0.320 | 0.500 | 0.18 | 39.1% | 0.261 | 0.0% | 85.0% | ||||
| Chris Sale | BOS | 0.305 | 0.291 | -0.014 | 36.2% | 0.209 | 13.5% | 78.2% | 86.5 | 5.40% | 30.60% | 350 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.303 | 0.291 | -0.012 | 48.2% | 0.192 | 10.0% | 79.1% | 86.5 | 5.80% | 31.70% | 278 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.295 | 0.242 | -0.053 | 65.8% | 0.153 | 4.8% | 88.7% | 84.1 | 5.30% | 30.50% | 226 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 0.288 | 0.291 | 0.003 | 39.8% | 0.209 | 9.2% | 88.3% | 88 | 8.80% | 39.50% | 362 |
| German Marquez | COL | 0.302 | 0.310 | 0.008 | 41.8% | 0.219 | 10.2% | 88.7% | 88.8 | 6.30% | 35.70% | 300 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 0.307 | 0.287 | -0.02 | 46.6% | 0.197 | 7.9% | 85.7% | 86 | 5.60% | 31.20% | 266 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 0.299 | 0.282 | -0.017 | 38.2% | 0.199 | 10.0% | 83.7% | 86.5 | 4.70% | 29.70% | 387 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | BAL | 0.315 | 0.253 | -0.062 | 34.6% | 0.223 | 12.8% | 86.8% | 86.6 | 6.40% | 32.10% | 393 |
| Jose Quintana | CHC | 0.283 | 0.293 | 0.01 | 42.4% | 0.198 | 11.5% | 88.4% | 87.5 | 6.60% | 36.90% | 350 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.292 | 0.269 | -0.023 | 40.0% | 0.203 | 6.5% | 87.3% | 86.2 | 7.30% | 30.30% | 399 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 0.292 | 0.307 | 0.015 | 48.8% | 0.206 | 6.1% | 89.8% | 89.3 | 8.80% | 43.10% | 160 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 0.280 | 0.277 | -0.003 | 39.5% | 0.222 | 10.0% | 82.7% | 84.3 | 2.90% | 27.20% | 272 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 0.307 | 0.344 | 0.037 | 63.0% | 0.167 | 9.0% | 90.3% | 86.8 | 4.80% | 35.00% | 334 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 0.309 | 0.349 | 0.04 | 40.8% | 0.219 | 15.5% | 85.1% | 86.4 | 6.10% | 30.70% | 264 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 0.300 | 0.274 | -0.026 | 42.4% | 0.197 | 13.7% | 90.4% | 84.9 | 4.30% | 30.80% | 279 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 0.294 | 0.321 | 0.027 | 47.9% | 0.221 | 5.4% | 83.1% | 86.1 | 5.40% | 29.70% | 313 |
| Parker Bridwell | ANA | 0.285 | 0.272 | -0.013 | 38.1% | 0.227 | 11.3% | 88.6% | 88.9 | 6.00% | 38.80% | 183 |
| Sal Romano | CIN | 0.293 | 0.309 | 0.016 | 49.4% | 0.127 | 13.3% | 85.8% | 85.7 | 6.00% | 35.70% | 84 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 0.317 | 0.297 | -0.02 | 45.3% | 0.223 | 8.4% | 88.9% | 85.4 | 4.30% | 31.40% | 417 |
| Vance Worley | MIA | 0.293 | 0.341 | 0.048 | 51.6% | 0.219 | 8.8% | 92.9% | 89.2 | 3.10% | 43.40% | 129 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | 0.297 | 0.301 | 0.004 | 45.3% | 0.18 | 3.4% | 91.1% | 87.7 | 7.80% | 37.70% | 167 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 0.294 | 0.252 | -0.042 | 56.1% | 0.193 | 7.1% | 88.6% | 84.8 | 4.20% | 33.80% | 240 |
Zack Godley generates a lot of weak ground balls, but with very few pop-ups, I’m not sure this BABIP is sustainable in this park.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Chris Sale (1) had a SwStr% blip in his last start, but it doesn’t appear anything to be concerned about. He’s the top strikeout pitcher in the league in a high strikeout spot tonight. While he has allowed four HRs to Tampa Bay this year in 21 innings (three starts), he’s struck out exactly 12 in each start (36 of 79 batters) and that’s just ridiculous for a starting pitcher.
Corey Kluber (2) has double digit strikeouts in 11 of his last 14 starts (Sale in only six of his last 13), though I’ll give a slight edge to the guy above due to the slightly higher strikeout tendencies of the Rays in a more favorable run environment.
Value Tier Two
There is no second tier tonight with so much separation between the elite pitchers above and the rest of the group. Dallas Keuchel could have been here if his numbers in his return had matched his previous season work.
Value Tier Three
J.A. Happ is coming off his best start of the season and while it’s true that was against the White Sox, he’s in a better spot than some might realize tonight in hosting the Yankees for just $7.5K.
Dallas Keuchel did not improve peripherals in his last start, but did manage contact well. While there has to be some skepticism at a high cost, there may be some optimism in a great spot too.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Michael Wacha is having a nice season and the cost is beginning to climb. It’s a favorable spot, though not a negative run environment, against a struggling Kansas City offense.
Kenta Maeda has oddly gone seven or more innings four times this season, but no more than five in any other start. It all depends on his pitch count, not exceeding 95 pitches since May and occasionally held well below that. Who knows what determines that. Exceptional contact management should serve him well enough here with enough strikeouts hopefully. It’ll be a nice bonus if he binks one of those seven inning outings again, but odds may be against it since he’s never done in back-to-back starts this season and that’s what keeps him from moving any higher at a reasonable cost.
Austin Pruitt has some decent numbers on the season and could have a chance to be at least useful for less than $6K tonight. He’s been in two terrible spots and shown something positive in each of his last two starts, pitching into the seventh inning last time out. I’d prefer him in an SP2 role next to Sale or Kluber and am listing him because I know this type of guy is going to be necessary tonight.
Jose Quintana should resolve his recent HR issues at least for this start. He hasn’t been a quality contact manager and his SwStr% does not support his increased strikeout rate either this season or over the last month. I’m a bit more bearish on him than most people (he’s a rare guy that I buy into ERA more than estimators) and certainly don’t buy into him being a $10K pitcher, but he might be in this spot.
Zack Godley would certainly rate more highly in a better matchup. Hosting the Dodgers is a really tough spot though.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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