Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, June 20th
It’s Chris Sale day and that’s about as much of a lock as we’ve seen this year, but it gets ugly pretty fast after that. The pitcher with the second highest strikeout rate is in Colorado, not necessarily a death sentence this year, but his hard contact allowed aside from those strikeouts is a concern. Sonny Gray has been interesting when his slider’s been working, but he faces the best team in baseball. Michael Pineda was throwing garbage at the Angels last time he faced them. The numbers may favor other pitchers today where it hasn’t taken sample size into account.
In one sense, this is pretty easy. There are lots of pitchers we can easily skip through and have no thought of using. Finding those guys after Sale is going to be difficult and may skyrocket his ownership tonight. While DraftKings has lowered the cost on some pitchers, I honestly don’t know what you do on FanDuel because there really isn’t a comfortable alternate for the prices they’re offering.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 0.5 | 4.69 | 5.69 | 46.8% | 0.96 | 4.17 | 4.84 | CIN | 94 | 100 | 95 |
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 10.3 | 4.98 | 4.93 | 42.5% | 0.96 | 4.68 | 3.47 | TAM | 109 | 87 | 118 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 7.9 | 4.82 | 5.51 | 33.5% | 0.89 | 4.42 | 7.44 | DET | 83 | 106 | 81 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 2 | 4.45 | 5.15 | 42.0% | 0.89 | 4.15 | 6.19 | NYM | 116 | 106 | 113 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | -6.8 | 4.72 | 4.81 | 43.7% | 1.02 | 4.13 | 4.78 | MIL | 94 | 95 | 96 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 2.7 | 2.96 | 6.97 | 41.2% | 1.06 | 3.42 | 3 | KAN | 80 | 83 | 118 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | -2.7 | 4.63 | 5.52 | 43.2% | 1.02 | 4.69 | 4.94 | CLE | 102 | 106 | 157 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | -0.3 | 4.88 | 5.62 | 39.1% | 1.04 | 5.46 | 5.39 | MIN | 100 | 91 | 119 |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | 4.6 | 4.63 | 5.7 | 48.9% | 0.94 | 4.4 | 4.75 | WAS | 102 | 109 | 119 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 3.9 | 4.47 | 6.3 | 42.4% | 1.04 | 4.45 | 4.06 | CHW | 89 | 85 | 114 |
| Francis Martes | HOU | -1.9 | 4.33 | 5. | 41.7% | 0.93 | 4.33 | OAK | 115 | 101 | 105 | |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | -2.3 | 4.26 | 5.44 | 49.9% | 1.11 | 4.77 | 3.5 | TEX | 98 | 74 | 102 |
| German Marquez | COL | 1.1 | 4.33 | 5.31 | 45.9% | 1.39 | 4.19 | 5.1 | ARI | 76 | 106 | 112 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0 | 4.05 | 5.71 | 47.9% | 0.94 | 4.4 | 3.33 | MIA | 102 | 107 | 131 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 2.4 | 4.46 | 5.65 | 39.2% | 0.96 | 4.31 | 5.8 | STL | 92 | 97 | 133 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | -9.1 | 4.36 | 5.41 | 49.3% | 0.96 | 4.52 | 4.33 | CHC | 100 | 89 | 141 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 2.6 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 40.7% | 0.89 | 4.92 | 4.34 | SEA | 111 | 106 | 109 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | -4.5 | 4.09 | 5.95 | 41.9% | 1.02 | 4.13 | 4.48 | BAL | 94 | 94 | 113 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | -0.6 | 4.25 | 6.13 | 38.6% | 1 | 4.37 | 5.33 | SFO | 83 | 79 | 104 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 0.6 | 4.57 | 5.75 | 38.0% | 1 | 5.15 | 4.9 | ATL | 91 | 101 | 117 |
| Matt Strahm | KAN | 7.8 | 4.04 | 5. | 42.9% | 1.06 | 2.87 | 4.14 | BOS | 96 | 102 | 87 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 5.8 | 3.44 | 5.63 | 47.3% | 1.01 | 3.21 | 3.62 | ANA | 79 | 92 | 96 |
| Mike Leake | STL | -7.8 | 3.98 | 6.2 | 53.3% | 0.96 | 3.89 | 4 | PHI | 95 | 82 | 72 |
| Mike Montgomery | CHC | 4.3 | 4.03 | 5.15 | 57.0% | 0.96 | 3.63 | 3.78 | SDG | 76 | 72 | 99 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 4.5 | 5.26 | 5.32 | 0.452 | 1.11 | 5.04 | 5.24 | TOR | 91 | 94 | 111 |
| Parker Bridwell | ANA | -1.5 | 4.36 | 6. | 0.439 | 1.01 | 8.89 | 4.29 | NYY | 135 | 124 | 95 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | -1.5 | 4.23 | 5.54 | 0.538 | 0.89 | 4.51 | 5.2 | LOS | 118 | 106 | 149 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | -14.2 | 4.17 | 5.88 | 0.528 | 0.93 | 3.76 | 3.34 | HOU | 125 | 122 | 162 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | -3.4 | 4.32 | 5.63 | 0.481 | 1.02 | 4 | 4.22 | PIT | 88 | 92 | 85 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | -7.4 | 3.59 | 6.49 | 0.464 | 1.39 | 3.47 | 3.43 | COL | 84 | 82 | 106 |
Brandon McCarthy has a 13.5 K-BB%, but has been the best contact manager on the board. (-1.8 Hard-Soft%, 84.3 mph aEV, 2.2% Barrels/BBE, 21.4% 95+ mph EV). He did not strike out a single batter in his most recent start, but has four to six in nine of his other 10 starts. The Mets don’t strike out often and hit the ball hard. Dodger Stadium is one of the most negative run environments in the league.
Chris Sale struck out 10 for the first time in a month last time out, though he’s remained an elite bat avoider over the last month. He’s gone at least seven innings in 11 of 14 starts and his 30.6 K-BB% leads all of baseball. Despite the positive run environment and an offense that doesn’t strike out a lot, the matchup against a low power Kansas City offense (8.9 HR/FB at home) is a positive.
Francisco Liriano has had a solid month of June after missing most of May. He’s struck out 19 of 72 batters, walking just five and even lasted seven innings in his last start. What’s been happening when batters have made contact this month has not been as ideal. More hard contact (39.6%) and fewer ground balls (41.3%), but even that’s better than all the walks. Texas is a tough park, but this may be a useful spot for him. The Rangers are one of the worst offenses in baseball against LHP (26.6 K%).
Michael Pineda was throwing garbage to the Angels in LA last time out. He was flat and everything appeared to be in the dirt or right down the pipe as he generated his second lowest SwStr rate (7.8%) of the season and in his last three starts. He struck out just two and just one three starts back, while fanning eight Red Sox in between because baseball is weird. He fell behind batters and was unable to get them to chase out of the zone in both of those low strikeout starts. Hopefully, they were just blips on the radar. His ground ball rate has been above 60% in each of his last two, so that’s something. The Angels have struggled on the road this year and still don’t have Trout.
Mike Leake seems like he was just waiting all season for us to jump on board before getting tattooed in his last start at home against the Brewers. However, he’s now allowed at least four ERs in three of his last four starts, but still retains a 78.2 LOB% for the season with a .266 BABIP. His 12.9 K-BB%, 8.2 SwStr% and 54.9 GB% are all career highs as well though, while his 27.6 Hard% is his second best mark. He’s still doing quality work even if he doesn’t have the upside we normally look for in a daily fantasy pitcher. We’re making some exceptions today, but don’t have to make much of one against the Phillies (23.7 K% vs RHP). They’re one of the top matchups on the board tonight. A power friendly park is not necessarily a run friendly one.
Mike Montgomery has a 12.7 BB% and ran himself up to 73 pitches in just four innings in his first start, but at least got through five on 88 pitches (despite just one walk) in his second. He should be in line for around 90 pitches now and that’s great because he has the top matchup on the board against the Padres (26.4 K% on the road, 24.6 K% vs LHP). That could make up for his lack of strikeout ability as he transitions to a starting role, while he at least keeps the ball on the ground (57.6 GB%).
Sonny Gray had thrown his slider 30% of the time in two of his previous four starts, generating 10 strikeouts in each before facing the Yankees last time out. He dropped back down to 16% against the Yankees, but still generated a 12.0 SwStr% and struck out six of his first 21 batters before running into a wall and being derailed in the sixth inning. Tonight, he faces a similarly strong offense in Houston with just a 17.8 K% vs RHP, but this is also an offense that lies primarily RH in their most potent spots. Throw the damn slider!
Zack Greinke tied a season low that he hasn’t seen since April with just four strikeouts in his last start against a hard hitting Detroit lineup. He escaped without an earned run with all five being unearned. His 5.9 SwStr% was nearly half his previous season low of 9.8% on Opening Day. That’s not an ideal warmup for a trip to Colorado. Coors has not been a death blow to opposing pitchers this year, but it’s certainly far from ideal. There’s particular concern here because although he’s generated swings and misses at an elite level this year, his 36.8 Hard% is his highest mark since 2007, when he spent half his season in the bullpen for the Royals. With reduced velocity, he can’t afford to make as many mistakes, especially not in this park.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.293 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 14.1 HR/FB)
Gio Gonzalez (.267 – 84.9% – 12.9) does have a 22.5 K-BB% in June, more than double his season mark prior to this month, but his SwStr% has been merely average. The Marlins have been good against LHP (19.6 HR/FB). A $9K or more price tag based on BABIP and LOB% seems a bit high.
Ervin Santana (.171 – 87.1% – 12.1) is not a $10K pitcher. His BABIP would be the second lowest ever for a starting pitcher and the lowest since Jeff Robinson’s .204 in 23 starts in 1988. His strand rate would be the best over a full season since John Candeleria in 1977, the only full season mark better than his in history. It would probably be safe to wager he doesn’t remain in this territory for another three and a half months.
Edinson Volquez (.275 – 74.6% – 11.5) is a little below his career average BABIP and below the league average HR rate, but I really can’t figure out why his ERA is more than a run below his SIERA. On the other end, DRA really likes him. The walk machine showed up in his last start after 16 innings of three-hit, shutout baseball with 18 strikeouts (54 batters) in his previous two. His SwStr% over the last month has not been as encouraging, though it’s really been an up and down deal. He’s facing a good Washington offense tonight
Ariel Miranda (.245 – 79.4% – 12.6) will likely see his strikeout rate over the last month revert to something close to league average without a drop in his SwStr% and the contact seems about average for someone who has allowed 14 HRs, but that’s the nature of the league now. Walks are a bit high and he’s facing an offense that hits the ball hard.
Jeremy Hellickson (.250 – 72.4% – 12.8) may project for a few more strikeouts, but still has a SwStr% 2.5 points below his career average. Whatever he’s doing, it’s not working.
Derek Holland (.295 – 75.5 – 15.2) has 11 unearned runs or just over one-quarter of his season total. Minnesota has shown surprisingly little power against LHP (7.9 HR/FB), but has been very patient (8.1 K-BB%), which could shorten this outing in combination with his 9.7 BB%.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Matt Strahm acquitted himself decently in his first start, lasting five innings (68 pitches). Though he only struck out three, he had a 16.2 SwStr% and held his bullpen velocity. He’ll probably experience a slight drop with 20 or more pitches per outing and should be around 75 today, not ideally what you’re looking for from a starting pitcher, but not a lot is today. The Red Sox have just a 15.8 K% vs RHP this year, but have otherwise not been all that good. If you’re using Sale, you could probably do worse things in your SP2 spot for $5K, but his high walk rate against a team that rarely strikes out does make this more risky.
Chad Kuhl has struck out a few more batters as his SwStr% has actually decreased over the last month and despite his high walk rate, he’s only walked more than two four times, but he hasn’t gone more than five innings in 10 starts, usually held to under 90 pitches no matter the results.
Francis Martes misses a lot of bats, but is not going to get far with a double digit walk rate and a cautionary pitch count below 90. While I don’t know for sure that’s the case, he was pulled after 88 pitchers and five innings of one run ball with seven strikeouts in his last start.
Jordan Zimmermann has allowed just five runs over his last 20 IP. His three straight quality starts were his first ones since his first start of the season, but his last start (8 IP – 0 BB – 6 K) was by far his best start of the season and the fourth time he’s generated a double digit SwStr% this season. He was near the minimum on DK a couple of starts ago, but has increased his cost by nearly 50% there. His ground ball rate is up, but he’s still allowing way too much hard contact even in his good starts (50.8 GB%, 37.2 Hard% in June). Seattle is a good offense in a limiting park.
German Marquez has been decent, but suffers from a case of worst spot on the board-itis.
Robert Gsellman was pounded by the Nationals in his last start and could suffer the same fate against the Dodgers. He’s been worse against RHBs though, so it will be interesting to see what the Dodgers, a progressive thinking team, does with the lineup tonight.
Jhoulys Chacin is going to make me break character because we usually don’t use ERA as an evaluation tool here, but with similar workloads (using batters faced), he has a 1.72 ERA at home and 10.27 ERA on the road. His peripherals, batted ball and contact rates all back this up to some extent.
Julio Teheran has allowed 11 HRs and has just 23 strikeouts over his last six starts.
Parker Bridwell was expected to be a bullpen piece in Baltimore before moving to the Angels and being re-converted into a starter in April. He has one of the worst non-Coors matchups on the board against the Yankees tonight. He faced them for 3.2 innings of no run, one strikeout relief last week.
Matt Moore
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 16.0% | 6.8% | Home | 19.9% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 15.1% | 5.7% |
| Amir Garrett | Reds | L2 Years | 18.9% | 10.3% | Road | 20.5% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 9.4% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 19.5% | 8.6% | Home | 22.7% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 8.3% | 12.5% |
| Brandon McCarthy | Dodgers | L2 Years | 22.5% | 10.2% | Home | 24.6% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 8.9% | 8.9% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 17.8% | 8.0% | Road | 20.3% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 12.5% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.5% | 4.7% | Road | 27.6% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 28.8% | 1.7% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | L2 Years | 17.9% | 8.5% | Home | 19.7% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 9.5% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 16.5% | 8.1% | Road | 15.3% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 10.0% |
| Edinson Volquez | Marlins | L2 Years | 17.8% | 9.4% | Home | 19.8% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 12.5% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 19.0% | 7.8% | Home | 19.2% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 3.5% |
| Francis Martes | Astros | L2 Years | 23.1% | 10.3% | Road | L14 Days | 23.1% | 10.3% | ||
| Francisco Liriano | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 23.2% | 11.2% | Road | 21.1% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 5.9% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 19.7% | 7.5% | Home | 17.8% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 11.1% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 22.6% | 8.7% | Road | 19.2% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 26.8% | 4.2% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 17.8% | 6.1% | Home | 19.4% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 10.9% | 7.3% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 19.2% | 8.5% | Road | 17.8% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 6.0% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 17.4% | 5.4% | Road | 14.9% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 5.7% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Years | 17.7% | 2.7% | Road | 16.8% | 2.7% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 5.0% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 20.7% | 7.3% | Home | 21.4% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 8.0% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 19.6% | 8.6% | Road | 18.9% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 10.2% |
| Matt Strahm | Royals | L2 Years | 29.5% | 15.0% | Home | 36.0% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 12.1% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | L2 Years | 25.1% | 5.8% | Home | 28.1% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 5.5% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 16.7% | 4.7% | Road | 16.9% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 7.3% |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | L2 Years | 20.1% | 10.2% | Home | 22.3% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 7.6% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | L2 Years | 11.9% | 8.0% | Home | 12.3% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| Parker Bridwell | Angels | L2 Years | 14.8% | 3.7% | Road | 12.5% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| Robert Gsellman | Mets | L2 Years | 18.6% | 7.6% | Road | 17.1% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 7.4% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | L2 Years | 19.0% | 8.0% | Home | 20.6% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 30.2% | 7.6% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 18.3% | 6.9% | Home | 20.1% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 10.9% | 4.4% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 23.7% | 5.5% | Road | 23.5% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 6.4% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | Road | 19.8% | 7.4% | RH | 20.9% | 8.4% | L7Days | 20.1% | 7.1% |
| Rays | Home | 25.0% | 9.4% | LH | 27.0% | 10.2% | L7Days | 22.9% | 7.1% |
| Tigers | Road | 24.5% | 9.8% | LH | 19.7% | 8.4% | L7Days | 20.8% | 7.2% |
| Mets | Road | 20.2% | 9.1% | RH | 19.2% | 9.4% | L7Days | 24.4% | 6.2% |
| Brewers | Home | 26.9% | 8.6% | RH | 24.8% | 8.7% | L7Days | 24.5% | 6.0% |
| Royals | Home | 19.5% | 6.8% | LH | 18.4% | 7.3% | L7Days | 18.9% | 6.4% |
| Indians | Road | 18.6% | 9.5% | RH | 20.0% | 9.3% | L7Days | 14.6% | 10.5% |
| Twins | Home | 21.5% | 10.6% | LH | 18.9% | 10.8% | L7Days | 18.8% | 7.3% |
| Nationals | Road | 19.8% | 8.5% | RH | 19.3% | 8.9% | L7Days | 17.2% | 5.5% |
| White Sox | Road | 22.1% | 5.8% | RH | 22.8% | 6.1% | L7Days | 18.8% | 7.7% |
| Athletics | Home | 24.4% | 8.8% | RH | 25.0% | 8.9% | L7Days | 26.4% | 10.6% |
| Rangers | Home | 22.2% | 9.5% | LH | 26.6% | 8.1% | L7Days | 24.8% | 10.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 24.4% | 8.0% | RH | 22.6% | 9.2% | L7Days | 18.7% | 7.1% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.4% | 8.6% | LH | 20.1% | 8.3% | L7Days | 16.5% | 9.9% |
| Cardinals | Road | 20.7% | 8.5% | RH | 20.6% | 8.5% | L7Days | 17.6% | 9.9% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.4% | 10.2% | RH | 22.3% | 9.1% | L7Days | 22.7% | 9.4% |
| Mariners | Home | 20.0% | 9.5% | RH | 20.9% | 8.2% | L7Days | 21.9% | 4.8% |
| Orioles | Home | 22.0% | 7.4% | RH | 22.8% | 6.8% | L7Days | 23.8% | 5.4% |
| Giants | Road | 19.6% | 8.6% | RH | 19.5% | 7.6% | L7Days | 17.8% | 7.8% |
| Braves | Home | 19.2% | 7.9% | LH | 18.2% | 7.7% | L7Days | 19.8% | 7.0% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.1% | 8.4% | LH | 15.8% | 9.8% | L7Days | 17.7% | 6.0% |
| Angels | Road | 21.2% | 9.8% | RH | 19.9% | 8.6% | L7Days | 17.8% | 4.9% |
| Phillies | Home | 21.5% | 8.7% | RH | 23.7% | 7.8% | L7Days | 25.6% | 10.1% |
| Padres | Road | 26.4% | 7.3% | LH | 24.6% | 9.3% | L7Days | 24.7% | 8.9% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.9% | 8.7% | RH | 20.4% | 7.7% | L7Days | 20.4% | 8.4% |
| Yankees | Home | 22.6% | 11.2% | RH | 22.0% | 9.7% | L7Days | 25.6% | 7.7% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.6% | 9.5% | RH | 23.5% | 10.2% | L7Days | 23.1% | 11.5% |
| Astros | Road | 18.4% | 8.8% | RH | 17.8% | 7.8% | L7Days | 16.0% | 8.7% |
| Pirates | Road | 19.3% | 8.8% | RH | 18.5% | 8.7% | L7Days | 17.5% | 8.3% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.0% | 7.5% | RH | 21.8% | 8.0% | L7Days | 20.6% | 6.9% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 37.4% | 13.6% | 23.3% | 2017 | 39.6% | 11.5% | 26.4% | Home | 42.2% | 15.0% | 27.3% | L14 Days | 52.5% | 0.0% | 40.0% |
| Amir Garrett | Reds | L2 Years | 40.4% | 25.8% | 27.5% | 2017 | 40.4% | 25.8% | 27.5% | Road | 45.8% | 28.6% | 31.3% | L14 Days | 57.9% | 28.6% | 42.1% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 32.5% | 13.1% | 13.5% | 2017 | 29.1% | 12.6% | 9.1% | Home | 33.5% | 11.5% | 14.9% | L14 Days | 29.7% | 18.2% | 16.2% |
| Brandon McCarthy | Dodgers | L2 Years | 28.1% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 2017 | 23.6% | 6.9% | -2.8% | Home | 32.3% | 7.4% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 10.8% | 0.0% | -18.9% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 32.0% | 8.8% | 13.8% | 2017 | 30.9% | 8.7% | 14.4% | Road | 30.4% | 4.9% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 16.7% | 3.6% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.6% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 2017 | 28.3% | 6.7% | 13.1% | Road | 29.2% | 4.7% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 0.0% | 4.9% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | L2 Years | 30.3% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 2017 | 33.3% | 18.2% | 11.1% | Home | 32.2% | 12.3% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 54.8% | 44.4% | 48.3% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 34.8% | 13.2% | 17.9% | 2017 | 38.8% | 15.2% | 19.2% | Road | 36.2% | 13.9% | 16.6% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 25.0% | 10.5% |
| Edinson Volquez | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.3% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 2017 | 33.2% | 11.5% | 13.3% | Home | 30.1% | 9.6% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 9.1% | -3.3% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 27.9% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 2017 | 24.6% | 12.1% | 3.0% | Home | 27.9% | 11.7% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 14.3% | 2.3% |
| Francis Martes | Astros | L2 Years | 33.3% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 2017 | 33.3% | 10.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days | 33.3% | 10.0% | 0.0% | |||
| Francisco Liriano | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 31.2% | 14.8% | 11.6% | 2017 | 32.6% | 11.1% | 22.0% | Road | 34.3% | 25.0% | 15.3% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 7.1% | 11.7% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 33.3% | 11.1% | 19.4% | 2017 | 35.0% | 9.8% | 20.9% | Home | 29.3% | 12.9% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 0.0% | 9.1% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 31.9% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 2017 | 31.3% | 12.9% | 9.1% | Road | 31.8% | 12.0% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 6.3% | -4.1% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 28.6% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 2017 | 29.9% | 12.8% | 10.0% | Home | 23.7% | 12.8% | 1.2% | L14 Days | 41.9% | 11.1% | 27.9% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 32.1% | 13.3% | 13.6% | 2017 | 30.8% | 16.4% | 11.8% | Road | 34.0% | 18.0% | 16.3% | L14 Days | 40.5% | 20.0% | 24.3% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 31.4% | 13.7% | 13.3% | 2017 | 38.8% | 16.2% | 24.3% | Road | 26.3% | 11.9% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 36.6% | 7.7% | 22.0% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Years | 34.4% | 16.3% | 19.3% | 2017 | 36.5% | 13.6% | 23.4% | Road | 36.3% | 13.7% | 18.0% | L14 Days | 43.3% | 25.0% | 33.3% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 32.2% | 11.3% | 13.6% | 2017 | 31.6% | 15.1% | 9.3% | Home | 33.0% | 13.2% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 35.0% | 15.4% | 17.5% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 33.5% | 10.7% | 16.8% | 2017 | 40.9% | 10.9% | 25.1% | Road | 34.5% | 11.7% | 20.6% | L14 Days | 47.1% | 0.0% | 32.4% |
| Matt Strahm | Royals | L2 Years | 28.4% | 10.3% | 7.3% | 2017 | 27.0% | 15.4% | 6.4% | Home | 20.0% | 7.1% | -7.5% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 11.1% | 21.1% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | L2 Years | 31.4% | 17.9% | 13.8% | 2017 | 30.2% | 20.9% | 12.0% | Home | 34.0% | 20.0% | 17.1% | L14 Days | 45.2% | 12.5% | 23.8% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.0% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 2017 | 27.6% | 13.6% | 9.7% | Road | 32.9% | 10.5% | 17.0% | L14 Days | 26.2% | 25.0% | -2.4% |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | L2 Years | 28.3% | 15.5% | 10.8% | 2017 | 32.0% | 6.9% | 10.1% | Home | 27.1% | 12.8% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 46.0% | 8.3% | 32.5% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | L2 Years | 29.6% | 18.3% | 11.8% | 2017 | 26.6% | 18.8% | 4.9% | Home | 31.7% | 21.6% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 33.3% | 5.0% |
| Parker Bridwell | Angels | L2 Years | 41.9% | 30.8% | 30.3% | 2017 | 37.5% | 28.6% | 25.0% | Road | 66.7% | 25.0% | 50.0% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Robert Gsellman | Mets | L2 Years | 31.1% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 2017 | 32.6% | 14.8% | 12.3% | Road | 33.1% | 8.1% | 15.4% | L14 Days | 32.6% | 14.3% | 21.0% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | L2 Years | 31.2% | 15.1% | 15.0% | 2017 | 31.8% | 14.3% | 17.5% | Home | 30.9% | 13.0% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 0.0% | 15.2% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 33.2% | 13.4% | 13.3% | 2017 | 32.5% | 16.7% | 12.6% | Home | 34.9% | 13.9% | 16.8% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 28.6% | 28.9% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 30.6% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 2017 | 36.8% | 15.7% | 15.4% | Road | 27.5% | 15.3% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 25.0% | 9.4% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | Road | 29.0% | 14.4% | 9.0% | RH | 28.7% | 14.4% | 8.0% | L7Days | 29.1% | 13.6% | 11.4% |
| Rays | Home | 36.9% | 15.7% | 18.7% | LH | 34.9% | 12.0% | 12.8% | L7Days | 37.2% | 17.6% | 19.2% |
| Tigers | Road | 35.6% | 12.3% | 18.8% | LH | 42.6% | 15.5% | 27.0% | L7Days | 40.4% | 9.1% | 25.5% |
| Mets | Road | 37.6% | 17.6% | 20.3% | RH | 35.6% | 14.2% | 18.4% | L7Days | 34.3% | 17.9% | 17.2% |
| Brewers | Home | 37.5% | 19.7% | 16.7% | RH | 33.6% | 19.3% | 14.0% | L7Days | 31.4% | 27.1% | 11.1% |
| Royals | Home | 31.9% | 8.9% | 12.9% | LH | 30.4% | 10.3% | 11.2% | L7Days | 32.2% | 12.3% | 11.5% |
| Indians | Road | 36.5% | 12.6% | 19.6% | RH | 34.3% | 13.6% | 18.0% | L7Days | 33.9% | 18.1% | 14.8% |
| Twins | Home | 33.3% | 12.2% | 17.4% | LH | 30.3% | 7.9% | 12.3% | L7Days | 31.9% | 17.8% | 15.7% |
| Nationals | Road | 30.4% | 14.8% | 11.5% | RH | 31.2% | 14.6% | 13.6% | L7Days | 33.8% | 19.2% | 16.2% |
| White Sox | Road | 32.1% | 14.0% | 14.5% | RH | 31.4% | 13.4% | 12.8% | L7Days | 35.9% | 16.3% | 21.8% |
| Athletics | Home | 32.2% | 16.6% | 17.1% | RH | 34.5% | 14.5% | 18.1% | L7Days | 29.1% | 9.9% | 10.3% |
| Rangers | Home | 33.6% | 15.6% | 13.6% | LH | 29.9% | 14.2% | 8.8% | L7Days | 37.5% | 18.6% | 17.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 30.7% | 12.8% | 10.4% | RH | 36.5% | 16.4% | 19.4% | L7Days | 37.4% | 14.0% | 14.9% |
| Marlins | Home | 32.5% | 16.5% | 11.3% | LH | 29.2% | 19.6% | 5.0% | L7Days | 30.9% | 15.5% | 12.0% |
| Cardinals | Road | 32.7% | 13.7% | 15.6% | RH | 30.9% | 13.2% | 12.0% | L7Days | 33.5% | 23.9% | 18.5% |
| Cubs | Home | 30.9% | 16.4% | 14.3% | RH | 30.1% | 13.9% | 12.4% | L7Days | 34.2% | 26.0% | 15.8% |
| Mariners | Home | 29.0% | 11.7% | 9.2% | RH | 31.0% | 12.0% | 13.0% | L7Days | 33.5% | 14.1% | 15.2% |
| Orioles | Home | 28.9% | 15.7% | 8.1% | RH | 29.8% | 15.3% | 9.2% | L7Days | 29.6% | 17.9% | 11.2% |
| Giants | Road | 30.1% | 10.9% | 8.7% | RH | 28.1% | 9.4% | 5.9% | L7Days | 27.3% | 11.6% | 0.0% |
| Braves | Home | 30.1% | 10.6% | 12.2% | LH | 30.2% | 16.1% | 11.6% | L7Days | 32.4% | 14.6% | 16.8% |
| Red Sox | Road | 33.3% | 12.3% | 13.4% | LH | 33.3% | 11.3% | 8.6% | L7Days | 35.1% | 9.6% | 17.6% |
| Angels | Road | 32.8% | 10.7% | 13.3% | RH | 30.8% | 13.1% | 11.2% | L7Days | 30.6% | 11.5% | 15.9% |
| Phillies | Home | 30.8% | 13.8% | 10.5% | RH | 29.7% | 10.2% | 8.4% | L7Days | 32.0% | 9.4% | 13.7% |
| Padres | Road | 30.2% | 15.5% | 8.2% | LH | 30.3% | 12.0% | 8.7% | L7Days | 25.2% | 20.6% | 2.0% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 32.7% | 17.0% | 13.5% | RH | 31.1% | 16.1% | 11.5% | L7Days | 34.6% | 18.8% | 18.2% |
| Yankees | Home | 32.2% | 21.1% | 10.8% | RH | 32.5% | 18.0% | 13.4% | L7Days | 29.8% | 13.2% | 9.9% |
| Dodgers | Home | 35.5% | 17.2% | 21.1% | RH | 34.6% | 14.9% | 19.6% | L7Days | 36.3% | 26.6% | 22.1% |
| Astros | Road | 32.0% | 14.9% | 14.5% | RH | 32.0% | 15.6% | 14.8% | L7Days | 32.8% | 22.8% | 15.8% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.3% | 11.5% | 9.0% | RH | 30.2% | 10.3% | 8.4% | L7Days | 27.4% | 15.1% | 8.3% |
| Rockies | Home | 31.2% | 15.3% | 11.2% | RH | 29.7% | 13.0% | 9.8% | L7Days | 33.1% | 10.3% | 11.8% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.4 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 16.2% | 7.4% | 2.19 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 2.16 |
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 18.9% | 8.7% | 2.17 | 17.3% | 6.8% | 2.54 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 19.9% | 10.0% | 1.99 | 14.8% | 10.5% | 1.41 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 20.3% | 9.0% | 2.26 | 19.4% | 10.4% | 1.87 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 17.9% | 11.5% | 1.56 | 19.0% | 10.4% | 1.83 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 35.2% | 16.1% | 2.19 | 29.3% | 15.4% | 1.90 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 14.4% | 7.4% | 1.95 | 12.5% | 7.5% | 1.67 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 19.0% | 8.7% | 2.18 | 18.9% | 8.8% | 2.15 |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | 22.2% | 8.8% | 2.52 | 22.1% | 7.6% | 2.91 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 18.4% | 8.7% | 2.11 | 17.3% | 9.0% | 1.92 |
| Francis Martes | HOU | 23.1% | 13.3% | 1.74 | 23.1% | 13.3% | 1.74 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 23.2% | 11.1% | 2.09 | 26.4% | 11.7% | 2.26 |
| German Marquez | COL | 21.5% | 8.9% | 2.42 | 23.9% | 10.1% | 2.37 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 21.9% | 9.1% | 2.41 | 27.1% | 9.6% | 2.82 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 10.2% | 7.3% | 1.40 | 10.6% | 7.4% | 1.43 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 19.9% | 8.2% | 2.43 | 20.9% | 9.8% | 2.13 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 14.6% | 8.3% | 1.76 | 15.6% | 7.9% | 1.97 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 16.8% | 7.6% | 2.21 | 14.8% | 8.1% | 1.83 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 16.3% | 8.5% | 1.92 | 16.3% | 8.1% | 2.01 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 18.2% | 8.7% | 2.09 | 16.4% | 9.3% | 1.76 |
| Matt Strahm | KAN | 25.9% | 11.2% | 2.31 | 22.6% | 13.7% | 1.65 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 23.9% | 12.9% | 1.85 | 16.8% | 11.7% | 1.44 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 17.5% | 8.2% | 2.13 | 17.5% | 8.2% | 2.13 |
| Mike Montgomery | CHC | 18.5% | 8.8% | 2.10 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 2.37 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 12.9% | 6.2% | 2.08 | 13.2% | 5.7% | 2.32 |
| Parker Bridwell | ANA | 12.8% | 9.5% | 1.35 | 12.8% | 9.5% | 1.35 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 16.2% | 7.6% | 2.13 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 1.97 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 23.7% | 11.3% | 2.10 | 27.9% | 12.4% | 2.25 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 15.6% | 7.5% | 2.08 | 12.2% | 8.8% | 1.39 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 29.1% | 13.9% | 2.09 | 30.2% | 15.1% | 2.00 |
The over-achievers over the last month have been cautioned against above. The under-achievers for the season include two very recent call ups and two with larger overall issues.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.37 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 4.17 | 4.73 | 0.56 | 4.58 | 0.41 | 4.29 | 0.12 | 5.44 | 1.27 | 5.1 | 4.97 | -0.13 | 4.87 | -0.23 | 4.7 | -0.4 |
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 6.91 | 4.97 | -1.94 | 5.08 | -1.83 | 6.97 | 0.06 | 7.43 | 0.52 | 11.66 | 5.12 | -6.54 | 5.71 | -5.95 | 10.77 | -0.89 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 4.17 | 4.86 | 0.69 | 5.24 | 1.07 | 5.04 | 0.87 | 5.31 | 1.14 | 3.99 | 6.06 | 2.07 | 6.36 | 2.37 | 5.65 | 1.66 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 3.14 | 4.26 | 1.12 | 4.01 | 0.87 | 3.19 | 0.05 | 3.61 | 0.47 | 1.91 | 4.33 | 2.42 | 4.26 | 2.35 | 2.95 | 1.04 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 5.61 | 4.98 | -0.63 | 4.99 | -0.62 | 4.23 | -1.38 | 4.47 | -1.14 | 4.07 | 4.81 | 0.74 | 4.71 | 0.64 | 4.4 | 0.33 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 2.82 | 2.59 | -0.23 | 2.61 | -0.21 | 1.78 | -1.04 | 1.67 | -1.15 | 4.05 | 3.06 | -0.99 | 2.99 | -1.06 | 1.9 | -2.15 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 8.07 | 5.49 | -2.58 | 5.55 | -2.52 | 6.27 | -1.8 | 7.60 | -0.47 | 11.51 | 5.8 | -5.71 | 6.16 | -5.35 | 8.64 | -2.87 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 3.79 | 4.92 | 1.13 | 5.13 | 1.34 | 5.37 | 1.58 | 6.00 | 2.21 | 5.67 | 5.03 | -0.64 | 4.96 | -0.71 | 6.83 | 1.16 |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | 3.72 | 4.81 | 1.09 | 4.49 | 0.77 | 4.24 | 0.52 | 3.30 | -0.42 | 2.25 | 4.33 | 2.08 | 4.11 | 1.86 | 3.47 | 1.22 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 2.56 | 4.9 | 2.34 | 4.91 | 2.35 | 4.68 | 2.12 | 3.07 | 0.51 | 3.44 | 4.65 | 1.21 | 4.82 | 1.38 | 5.07 | 1.63 |
| Francis Martes | HOU | 5.19 | 4.33 | -0.86 | 5.19 | 0 | 4.63 | -0.56 | 3.89 | -1.30 | 5.19 | 4.33 | -0.86 | 5.19 | 0 | 4.63 | -0.56 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 5.36 | 4.82 | -0.54 | 4.72 | -0.64 | 4.39 | -0.97 | 4.78 | -0.58 | 3.71 | 3.74 | 0.03 | 3.98 | 0.27 | 3.31 | -0.4 |
| German Marquez | COL | 4.19 | 4.36 | 0.17 | 4.49 | 0.3 | 3.91 | -0.28 | 5.52 | 1.33 | 4.01 | 4.13 | 0.12 | 4.57 | 0.56 | 4.51 | 0.5 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 2.89 | 4.62 | 1.73 | 4.4 | 1.51 | 4.3 | 1.41 | 3.69 | 0.80 | 2.93 | 3.75 | 0.82 | 3.47 | 0.54 | 2.38 | -0.55 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 4.91 | 5.87 | 0.96 | 6.09 | 1.18 | 5.91 | 1 | 6.78 | 1.87 | 7.57 | 6.23 | -1.34 | 6.78 | -0.79 | 6.83 | -0.74 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 5.1 | 4.33 | -0.77 | 4.19 | -0.91 | 4.52 | -0.58 | 5.42 | 0.32 | 6.12 | 4.26 | -1.86 | 4.03 | -2.09 | 4.85 | -1.27 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 5.35 | 5.19 | -0.16 | 5.33 | -0.02 | 5.77 | 0.42 | 6.28 | 0.93 | 4.06 | 4.71 | 0.65 | 4.55 | 0.49 | 5.23 | 1.17 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 5.83 | 4.25 | -1.58 | 4.07 | -1.76 | 4.05 | -1.78 | 6.99 | 1.16 | 4.45 | 4.79 | 0.34 | 4.82 | 0.37 | 4.32 | -0.13 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 4.86 | 5.23 | 0.37 | 5.43 | 0.57 | 5.67 | 0.81 | 5.81 | 0.95 | 3.86 | 4.87 | 1.01 | 4.91 | 1.05 | 6.16 | 2.3 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 6 | 4.94 | -1.06 | 5.25 | -0.75 | 4.73 | -1.27 | 8.16 | 2.16 | 7.27 | 5.16 | -2.11 | 5.56 | -1.71 | 4.75 | -2.52 |
| Matt Strahm | KAN | 3.67 | 4.84 | 1.17 | 4.92 | 1.25 | 5.13 | 1.46 | 4.05 | 0.38 | 1.32 | 4.7 | 3.38 | 4.7 | 3.38 | 4.08 | 2.76 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 3.71 | 3.6 | -0.11 | 3.46 | -0.25 | 4.26 | 0.55 | 2.82 | -0.89 | 4.15 | 4.5 | 0.35 | 4.26 | 0.11 | 4.38 | 0.23 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 3.14 | 3.98 | 0.84 | 3.74 | 0.6 | 3.73 | 0.59 | 3.95 | 0.81 | 4.96 | 3.83 | -1.13 | 3.69 | -1.27 | 4.48 | -0.48 |
| Mike Montgomery | CHC | 2.56 | 4.65 | 2.09 | 4.44 | 1.88 | 3.87 | 1.31 | 4.68 | 2.12 | 2.5 | 3.83 | 1.33 | 3.89 | 1.39 | 3.85 | 1.35 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 4.67 | 5.03 | 0.36 | 5 | 0.33 | 5.85 | 1.18 | 5.80 | 1.13 | 5.3 | 5.01 | -0.29 | 4.9 | -0.4 | 6.88 | 1.58 |
| Parker Bridwell | ANA | 2.79 | 4.16 | 1.37 | 4.01 | 1.22 | 5.41 | 2.62 | 7.99 | 5.20 | 2.79 | 4.16 | 1.37 | 4.01 | 1.22 | 5.41 | 2.62 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 5.5 | 4.52 | -0.98 | 4.45 | -1.05 | 4.57 | -0.93 | 6.19 | 0.69 | 3.66 | 4.54 | 0.88 | 4.41 | 0.75 | 4.26 | 0.6 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 4.44 | 3.74 | -0.7 | 3.27 | -1.17 | 3.32 | -1.12 | 3.18 | -1.26 | 4.8 | 3.34 | -1.46 | 2.56 | -2.24 | 2.16 | -2.64 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 4.91 | 4.85 | -0.06 | 4.72 | -0.19 | 5.09 | 0.18 | 6.48 | 1.57 | 4 | 4.28 | 0.28 | 4.24 | 0.24 | 4.91 | 0.91 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 3 | 3.19 | 0.19 | 3.1 | 0.1 | 3.33 | 0.33 | 2.24 | -0.76 | 2.84 | 3.08 | 0.24 | 2.78 | -0.06 | 3.13 | 0.29 |
Brandon McCarthy has allowed just four HRs (6.9 HR/FB). He has a career 10.5 HR/FB.
Mike Leake has one of the lowest BABIPs and the highest LOB% of his career in front of one of the worst defenses in baseball. Despite the changing environment and different parks the last few years, his HR rate remains remarkably consistent. He has a 13.6 career HR/FB, 13.6 HR/FB this year, 13.5 HR/FB last year and has been between 13-14 HR/FB in all but two seasons of his career.
Mike Montgomery has a .262 BABIP, 79 LOB% and 6.9 HR/FB. I don’t think anyone believes he’s better than a league average pitcher, but he’s in a great spot tonight.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 44.5 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 0.294 | 0.315 | 0.021 | 45.1% | 0.235 | 8.0% | 91.4% | 88.6 | 5.70% | 4.30% | 280 |
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 0.281 | 0.260 | -0.021 | 42.5% | 0.18 | 6.1% | 88.4% | 89.7 | 7.00% | 4.90% | 171 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 0.284 | 0.245 | -0.039 | 35.3% | 0.152 | 13.5% | 86.0% | 86.6 | 6.50% | 4.60% | 230 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 0.283 | 0.270 | -0.013 | 45.8% | 0.218 | 20.7% | 85.6% | 84.3 | 2.20% | 1.60% | 182 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 0.304 | 0.330 | 0.026 | 42.9% | 0.196 | 5.8% | 85.0% | 87.1 | 4.80% | 3.40% | 188 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 0.315 | 0.304 | -0.011 | 38.2% | 0.224 | 10.0% | 75.9% | 86.8 | 5.70% | 3.40% | 230 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 0.313 | 0.378 | 0.065 | 43.3% | 0.239 | 13.6% | 92.0% | 88.7 | 6.70% | 5.00% | 135 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 0.281 | 0.294 | 0.013 | 38.3% | 0.203 | 7.6% | 87.2% | 89 | 9.40% | 6.50% | 224 |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | 0.286 | 0.275 | -0.011 | 48.4% | 0.195 | 4.9% | 87.7% | 86 | 6.10% | 3.90% | 196 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.287 | 0.171 | -0.116 | 44.0% | 0.147 | 11.2% | 89.4% | 84.8 | 3.80% | 2.70% | 264 |
| Francis Martes | HOU | 0.288 | 0.261 | -0.027 | 41.7% | 0.167 | 30.0% | 85.4% | ||||
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 0.303 | 0.323 | 0.02 | 45.7% | 0.194 | 4.4% | 86.2% | 87.9 | 6.80% | 4.30% | 132 |
| German Marquez | COL | 0.289 | 0.316 | 0.027 | 42.0% | 0.204 | 11.5% | 91.0% | 89.8 | 6.10% | 4.20% | 163 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.300 | 0.267 | -0.033 | 43.8% | 0.2 | 11.8% | 86.9% | 85.9 | 6.20% | 4.20% | 243 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 0.306 | 0.250 | -0.056 | 34.7% | 0.206 | 12.0% | 87.5% | 86.2 | 7.40% | 6.00% | 271 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 0.300 | 0.293 | -0.007 | 51.7% | 0.171 | 12.3% | 89.0% | 86.8 | 6.30% | 4.50% | 237 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 0.311 | 0.303 | -0.008 | 34.3% | 0.239 | 13.3% | 90.1% | 88.4 | 9.00% | 7.00% | 255 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 0.305 | 0.348 | 0.043 | 40.8% | 0.254 | 3.7% | 91.0% | 88 | 5.70% | 4.60% | 244 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.284 | 0.279 | -0.005 | 36.7% | 0.211 | 7.5% | 87.8% | 85.5 | 7.00% | 5.20% | 256 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 0.318 | 0.336 | 0.018 | 36.5% | 0.204 | 6.4% | 88.1% | 89.8 | 10.80% | 7.80% | 259 |
| Matt Strahm | KAN | 0.302 | 0.203 | -0.099 | 40.0% | 0.167 | 7.7% | 80.3% | 84.2 | 9.50% | 5.40% | 63 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 0.283 | 0.284 | 0.001 | 52.7% | 0.171 | 6.0% | 87.2% | 86.6 | 6.20% | 4.30% | 225 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 0.294 | 0.266 | -0.028 | 54.9% | 0.201 | 3.0% | 90.2% | 86.8 | 5.20% | 4.00% | 268 |
| Mike Montgomery | CHC | 0.288 | 0.262 | -0.026 | 57.6% | 0.192 | 0.0% | 88.3% | 84.4 | 3.90% | 2.60% | 128 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 0.285 | 0.251 | -0.034 | 44.0% | 0.181 | 13.0% | 90.1% | 86.1 | 9.20% | 7.60% | 184 |
| Parker Bridwell | ANA | 0.290 | 0.367 | 0.077 | 51.6% | 0.258 | 0.0% | 94.4% | 87.5 | 6.30% | 5.10% | 32 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 0.319 | 0.326 | 0.007 | 53.7% | 0.199 | 9.8% | 87.9% | 86.1 | 5.50% | 4.10% | 236 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 0.293 | 0.329 | 0.036 | 53.0% | 0.238 | 2.9% | 87.7% | 87.5 | 5.20% | 3.60% | 154 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 0.301 | 0.321 | 0.02 | 49.6% | 0.207 | 11.1% | 88.9% | 87.3 | 7.30% | 5.50% | 246 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 0.290 | 0.276 | -0.014 | 46.3% | 0.177 | 13.3% | 84.9% | 86.9 | 8.10% | 5.30% | 234 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Chris Sale (1) dominated the Phillies after a string of starts where he looked nearly human. He’s in another good spot tonight and leads all of baseball in K-BB%. This is the easy one today. You just need to find a way to fit him. He costs around $3K more than any other pitcher because he’s probably that much better.
Value Tier Two
Michael Pineda (2) has been really bad in two of his last three, but did have a really good start against the toughest offense to strike out in between. I’m not claiming confidence in anyone but Sale today and he still carries a $10K+ price tag on DraftKings where he probably drops a tier, but his track record suggests that at least the peripherals should improve here.
Value Tier Three
Zack Greinke (3) picked a bad time to have his worst start of the season as a warm-up to his Coors trip. He still costs more than $8K and is going to need the good slider in this park. Hopefully he still has some magic left in that slider because players don’t really have a comfortable alternate to Sale tonight.
Mike Montgomery costs just $5.5K on DraftKings (probably unusable on FanDuel) with the top matchup on the board. That’s what we’re doing aside from a few guys today. We’re finding guys who might be okay in good spots because the arms we typically look for aren’t readily available in abundance today.
Mike Leake was disappointing in his last start and could be a disaster if he starts giving up runs without much upside in his strikeout rate, but he’s facing a the Phillies for $8K or less tonight.
Francisco Liriano carries a lot of risk in a dangerous park, but is having a nice month and may have the most strikeout potential behind Sale for $7K.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Sonny Gray has shown some upside with more confidence in his slider and was looking good in his last start for a while even with reduced usage. It’ll be another tough one tonight in Houston and generally we’d omit him entirely, but it’s a tough board and his cost is below $7K on DraftKings.
Brandon McCarthy may not single handedly win you a GPP, but he should keep you in it. You’re more likely to get a six inning quality start with four to six strikeouts than anything else.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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