Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, June 5th
Great job by both sites for removing the late start double-header entirely from the slate and as the Twins have yet to officially name a pitcher for either game as of nearly midnight, we’re not even going to bother listing those affairs today. Otherwise, back to some sense of normalcy after a strangely scheduled Monday that originally had just three west coast games before the Yankees and Tigers decided to make up two. It was not a good day to choose daily fantasy pitchers. Today has some more interesting prospects, though we have three guys coming off the DL today and two more making their first start of the season.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | -7.7 | 4.54 | 5.7 | 49.1% | 0.92 | 4.69 | 5.44 | Mets | 88 | 107 | 72 |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 6.3 | 3.88 | 5.2 | 35.2% | 0.93 | 3.08 | 5.00 | Royals | 95 | 103 | 105 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | -4.8 | 4.07 | 6.2 | 41.9% | 1.01 | Rockies | 77 | 72 | 113 | ||
| Artie Lewicki | Tigers | 1.2 | 4.76 | 5.0 | 37.4% | 1.10 | 4.84 | 3.62 | Red Sox | 126 | 120 | 120 |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 1.4 | 3.78 | 3.0 | 61.5% | 0.93 | 4.13 | 3.74 | Angels | 97 | 109 | 117 |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | -0.2 | 3.91 | 6.4 | 53.5% | 0.92 | 3.88 | Marlins | 74 | 77 | 74 | |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 4.6 | 4.40 | 5.6 | 49.9% | 1.04 | 4.44 | 5.80 | Blue Jays | 94 | 89 | 92 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 10.2 | 2.98 | 6.9 | 44.3% | 1.06 | 2.25 | 1.71 | Brewers | 96 | 99 | 84 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 9.5 | 3.68 | 6.4 | 60.5% | 0.87 | 3.38 | 3.75 | Mariners | 110 | 109 | 106 |
| James Paxton | Mariners | -4.8 | 3.44 | 6.0 | 44.1% | 0.87 | 3.35 | 2.85 | Astros | 97 | 115 | 93 |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | -0.1 | 4.79 | 5.3 | 39.7% | 0.92 | 4.89 | 3.55 | Orioles | 74 | 88 | 82 |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | -2.2 | 4.00 | 5.5 | 45.3% | 0.98 | 4.00 | 3.70 | Dodgers | 110 | 103 | 133 |
| Jordan Lyles | Padres | -5.5 | 4.30 | 5.2 | 48.7% | 0.91 | 3.90 | 3.90 | Braves | 109 | 99 | 77 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | -3.3 | 4.76 | 5.5 | 45.8% | 0.92 | 4.81 | 3.26 | Cardinals | 92 | 92 | 90 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 7.3 | 4.72 | 5.3 | 41.3% | 1.06 | 5.43 | 3.30 | Indians | 125 | 103 | 135 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | -0.4 | 4.73 | 5.5 | 52.1% | 1.01 | 4.81 | 5.14 | Reds | 84 | 103 | 114 |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 12.9 | 3.93 | 6.0 | 47.4% | 1.01 | 3.86 | 4.59 | Phillies | 75 | 92 | 52 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | -6.8 | 3.60 | 6.6 | 39.8% | 0.93 | 3.98 | Diamondbacks | 78 | 110 | 121 | |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | -3.2 | 4.62 | 5.6 | 29.5% | 1.04 | 5.29 | 6.62 | Yankees | 117 | 118 | 130 |
| Matt Moore | Rangers | -0.9 | 4.76 | 5.6 | 37.6% | 1.15 | 5.10 | 3.98 | Athletics | 116 | 89 | 92 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | -6.4 | 2.83 | 6.6 | 34.6% | 1.01 | 3.00 | 3.18 | Rays | 100 | 101 | 85 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Rays | -0.8 | 5.01 | 5.2 | 45.9% | 1.01 | 3.63 | 3.79 | Nationals | 92 | 97 | 38 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 6.9 | 3.91 | 5.8 | 50.8% | 0.93 | 3.88 | 2.63 | Giants | 120 | 105 | 137 |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | -4 | 3.37 | 5.1 | 49.9% | 0.98 | 3.21 | 1.88 | Pirates | 113 | 99 | 97 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 1.4 | 4.19 | 5.8 | 44.7% | 1.15 | 4.56 | 5.25 | Rangers | 89 | 94 | 93 |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 6.4 | 4.52 | 5.4 | 46.4% | 0.91 | 3.74 | 5.62 | Padres | 100 | 99 | 127 |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | 4.8 | 4.80 | 5.8 | 43.9% | 1.10 | 5.14 | 4.38 | Tigers | 84 | 88 | 103 |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | -4.6 | 4.96 | 5.7 | 38.6% | 1.01 | 5.08 | 3.16 | Cubs | 114 | 111 | 123 |
Andrew Heaney allowed five runs in Detroit after shutting down the Yankees for 6.1 innings. It was the first time in seven starts he allowed more than two earned runs. An interesting thing is that despite a career 13.5 HR/FB in 214.1 IP, he’s been below 9% in each of the two seasons he’s surpassed 30 innings now. After allowing three in his second start of the season, he’s allowed just one HR since. His 85.8 mph aEV supports the lack of hard contact in the air, though he’s struggling a bit with line drives (27.9%). He’s one of just seven pitchers on the board striking out a quarter of batters faced this year. While the Royals appear to be a more dangerous and better overall offense against LHP so far, that comes with more strikeouts (21.3%).
Corey Kluber has completed six innings in every start this season. More recently, he’s allowed a total of two ERs over his last four starts without a single walk and has struck out 27 of his last 73 batters (two of those starts against Houston). There haven’t been significant changes in velocity or pitch usage, but his three highest SwStr% games have each occurred in his last three starts (12.7% or better). He’s up to a 27.6 K% on the year now and while he’s still not a Statcast board leader today, his .229 xwOBA at home since last season does top the board. The Brewers (15.9 HR/FB vs RHP) gain a DH in a positive run environment, but also have a 24.3 K% vs RHP.
Dallas Keuchel has allowed 10 ERs over his last 16 innings. He’s faced either the Yankees or Indians in all three of those starts. Strikeouts are up to at least league average over the last month and while the 54.8 GB% is not ideal for this pitcher, it’s still the highest mark on the board for anyone with more than two starts and he’s only been below 50% twice this year. The largest concern would be a hard hit rate above 35% in four of his last five starts. In May, he relied less on his sinker, while his cutter usage shot up to 25% (he’s never used it more than 14% in a season). It’s not fantastic (.308 xwOBA, 21.3 Whiff%), but it does appear he’s made a smart move away from so much sinker reliance (.362 xwOBA, 90.5 mph aEV, 13.9 Whiff%). He faces a solid Seattle lineup against LHP and one that’s predominantly right-handed without Cano, but they have a surprisingly low 8.1 HR/FB vs LHP and Houston is the most negative run environment in play tonight.
James Paxton underwhelmed in Texas (5 IP – 2 ER – 4 BB – 5 K). In four of his previous five starts, he’d gone at least seven innings, two of them complete games and double digit strikeouts in the other two. While strikeouts are down a bit, his 27.1% over the last month is still a top five mark on the board. He did have a small drop in velocity last time out, but also had one when he threw his no-hitter. What we’re concerned about is the matchup. The Astros have a 115 wRC+ against LHP. However, he’s pitching in the most negative run environment on the board, where they’ve been merely average this year, while the Houston peripherals against southpaws are all around average as well.
Jason Vargas had a double digit SwStr% in every start up until his last. He has a league average K% over the last month and while he’s allowed four runs or more in four of his six starts this year, he’s allowed none in two of his last three, while his 85 mph aEV is the fourth best mark on the board. It’s not all been a disaster. The troubling thing is that he’s failed to go more than five innings in a start this year. Even in the two shutout ones, he was yanked after twice through the order. The extremely appealing thing is the matchup here. The Orioles lose the DH, travel to a negative run environment and have a 19.8 K-BB% on the road. They have a team 27.5 K-BB% over the last week!
Joe Musgrove has allowed one run through 14 innings in two starts so far, though he did walk four Cubs last time out (five strikeouts). Great control with a solid strikeout rate had been his calling card coming up through the minors and he does have a career 15.1 K-BB% thus far with a league average 31.3 Hard% (that’s actually a bit better than league average this year). There’s always been some potential here. This is not over-excitement about two starts (even though he hasn’t allowed a single barrel yet). The Dodgers aren’t an easy assignment though and they’ve been hot.
Jose Urena might be a league average pitcher. He’s missing enough bats to be daily fantasy useful this year (though the last month is a bit concerning) and he’s in a decent spot in St Louis tonight. There’s nothing spectacular here, just potential usefulness.
Kyle Hendricks struck out just one Pirate in his last start, but has an 11.1 SwStr% over the last month with a low of 9.9% over his last four starts last time out. They are his four highest marks of the season. Unfortunately, he also has a 39.1 Hard% and 43.3 GB% over that span. He appears to be favoring the four-seam fastball a bit more in place of some sinkers, though it’s still his primary pitch. He’s also upped his curveball usage a bit, but that’s still only a few per start. His changeup has really been his only quality pitch this year (28%, .251 xwOBA, 81.2 mph aEV, 37.3 Whiff%) no matter how he mixes usage of his other offerings. The only reason he’s in contention today is a split high 26.9 K% for the Phillies against RHP, which they combing with an 8.7 Hard-Soft%. They should see lots of changeups.
Max Scherzer bounced back just fine (8 IP – 2 H – 0 R – 1 BB – 12 K) against the Orioles after that disaster in Miami (6 IP – 4 ER – 1 HR – 2 BB – 4 K). Is good.
Patrick Corbin allowed six HRs, including two HRs against the Reds last time out, but did reach double digit strikeouts for the first time in over a month. He’s had at least seven Ks in all but two starts this year and while the SwStr% has dropped two points over the last month, 12.1% is a well above average mark and he’s sustained a 30% strikeout rate. The Giants are predominantly right-handed, but do have a 23.8 K% vs LHP. He’s struck out 17 of them in 14.1 innings in two April starts, but they are the hottest offense on the board (18.4 HR/FB last seven days) and have been very formidable at home, even exhibiting some power there this season (13.8 HR/FB).
Ross Stripling has the following line over his last three starts: 19.2 IP – 14 H – 3 R/2 ER – 1 HR – 2 BB – 28 K – 74 BF. Drop down to the SwStr% table and see that he has just a 10.2% mark over the last month. Now forget about that because he’s been above 14% in each of his last two starts. Now remember it again because those two starts were against the Phillies and Padres. The Pirates strike out about a touchdown less against RHP (19.6%). I’m a bit skeptical he’ll be able to sustain the strikeouts of course. That said, he’s been an exceptional contact manager as well (84.8 mph aEV) with absolutely no support for his .333 BABIP. The Pirates have just a 9.8 HR/FB vs RHP and 8.4 HR/FB (6.4 Hard-Soft%) on the road.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.288 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Sean Newcomb (.264 – 75.2% – 5.4) has the prime matchup with the Padres tonight, except it isn’t so prime against LHP (15.6 HR/FB) despite the 17.8 K-BB%. The Padres also have a 9.1 K-BB% with an 18.4 HR/FB over the last week, while he’s totaled 10 strikeouts over his last three starts. I still like him overall and he’s only allowed more than two ERs to Boston over his last six starts, but he’s also had some really soft spots in that schedule too and is probably accurately priced at $9K here. There may be some dangerous RHBs in this lineup, though he actually has a bit of reverse split due to a change and curve as his secondary pitches. I’m a bit undecided here.
Carlos Martinez (.237 – 82.8% – 2.6) returns from a month off due to a lat issue to the premium spot on the board against the Marlins (74 wRC+, 17.2 K-BB%, 10 HR/FB on the road – 77 wRC+, 17 K-BB%, 9.7 HR/FB vs RHP). However, he faced just 17 AA batters in his lone rehab effort (striking out four) and can probably only be expected to even finish six innings if everything goes perfectly, which it might in this spot. He was the best contact manager on the board prior to the injury (84.1 mph aEV, 2.3% Barrels/BBE), but the cost is simply too high for the workload expectation.
Steven Wright (.205 – 85.2% – 7.1) has pitched entirely in relief this season, but all in multi-inning outings except once with a high of 68 pitches this year. It’s a knuckleball, so I don’t imagine there’s a pitch count and I have no idea how Detroit bats will react to him. This could go up, down, sideways or anywhere in between…just like his knuckleball. He is cheap though.
C.C. Sabathia (.266 – 67.5% – 13.3) has actually allowed eight unearned runs, which is an astounding 27.6% of his season total. Over his last four starts, 24 runs have crossed the plate, 16 of them earned with five HRs. That said, his 84.2 mph aEV is still second best on the board. While his strikeout rate has declined over the last month, his SwStr% has actually increased, so I wouldn’t worry about that, but he’s still generally a guy that’s going to be under 20% strikeouts.
Kyle Freeland (.270 – 79.9% – 11.9) has been a quality contact manager with a near league average strikeout rate, but he has just a 5.7 SwStr% over his last three starts and a mind-boggling 15.5 K% on the road since last season. The Reds have a 10.4 BB% at home and vs LHP (split high) with a 20 HR/FB over the last week.
Junior Guerra (_.252 – 82.5% – 8.2)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Jordan Lyles has a 25.6 K% over five starts with an ERA and estimators most in the mid-threes. He’s allowed a total of five runs with 23 strikeouts in three home starts, but two of those where against Miami and Colorado, which is as good as it gets in that park without being able to face his own offense. This matchup against the Braves is not a deal-breaker, but it’s a little tougher and I’m still a bit skeptical. He may be one to keep an eye on though. Without the kind of time available yesterday, a quick look at his pitches on Statcast don’t show much difference from last year. He’s throwing his curve a bit more and it has a better launch angle (-7), but a similar whiff rate. His four-seamer is missing more bats, but the velocity and aEV are the same on the pitch while the LA is 27 degrees.
Anthony DeScalfani returns to a great spot against the Rockies and has been stretched out to face 49 AAA batters over his last two rehab starts, but allowed five HRs in those two starts, while striking out 10. He hasn’t seen major league action since 2016.
Madison Bumgarner comes at a reduced price, but a still fairly high one for his first start of the season, which is at home, but against an Arizona offense that can do some damage against LHP. Of course, I say that after they were shut down pretty well by Derek Holland last night. The main concern here is that he’s faced just 28 batters in two rehab starts, just 12 above A ball. This start will likely just get his feet wet.
Zach Eflin has the sixth highest strikeout rate on the board through five starts, but with just a 9.6 SwStr% that puts it on the edge of sustainability. He also has a board worst 46 Z-O-Swing% and has failed to complete five innings in any of his last three starts with a hard hit rate above 40% in each of his last two. The Cubs represent a very difficult matchup, especially at Wrigley.
Alex Cobb has allowed more than three earned runs just once in his last six starts and has pitched into the seventh in two of his last three, but has allowed a HR in four straight and has a total of nine strikeouts over his last three starts.
Nathan Eovaldi threw six no-hit innings in his return from Tommy John surgery. He threw just 70 pitches and is obviously going to be over-priced for the expected workload after that effort.
Brad Keller threw three innings (51 pitches) in his first career start.
Artie Lewicki has the worst park adjusted matchup on the board in Boston.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 15.9% | 5.9% | 14.8% | 19.1% | Season | 11.5% | 5.5% | 17.6% | 13.4% | Road | 14.2% | 6.5% | 14.4% | 21.7% | L14Days | 12.2% | 10.2% | 15.4% | -5.3% |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | L2 Yrs | 25.6% | 8.5% | 20.8% | 21.8% | Season | 25.0% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 14.2% | Home | 29.3% | 7.9% | 24.2% | 25.2% | L14Days | 16.0% | 8.0% | 16.7% | |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | L2 Yrs | 20.7% | 5.9% | 12.6% | 14.2% | Season | Home | L14Days | ||||||||||||
| Artie Lewicki | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 15.3% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 25.3% | Season | 18.2% | 7.6% | 34.7% | Road | 18.8% | 9.4% | 30.4% | L14Days | 18.5% | 3.7% | 47.6% | |||
| Brad Keller | Royals | L2 Yrs | 15.7% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 7.7% | Season | 15.7% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 7.7% | Road | 14.3% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 5.3% | L14Days | 21.4% | 10.7% | 5.2% | |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 23.9% | 8.7% | 12.9% | 10.5% | Season | 22.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | 6.8% | Home | 22.6% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 5.6% | L14Days | ||||
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 19.1% | 8.0% | 16.0% | 2.1% | Season | 17.3% | 6.4% | 13.3% | 3.0% | Road | 16.9% | 9.1% | 14.5% | -1.6% | L14Days | 10.6% | 10.6% | 27.3% | 8.1% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Yrs | 30.6% | 5.3% | 13.1% | 8.6% | Season | 27.6% | 3.1% | 16.7% | 19.6% | Home | 35.1% | 4.2% | 10.1% | 5.4% | L14Days | 37.0% | 58.6% | ||
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Yrs | 20.9% | 7.0% | 18.0% | 4.4% | Season | 19.4% | 6.8% | 15.8% | 7.0% | Home | 20.3% | 7.0% | 17.2% | -3.5% | L14Days | 23.1% | 7.7% | 44.5% | |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 27.0% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 15.3% | Season | 32.0% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 13.0% | Road | 28.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 15.8% | L14Days | 34.8% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 7.7% |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | L2 Yrs | 18.1% | 7.8% | 12.5% | 15.5% | Season | 18.7% | 8.9% | 18.2% | 19.3% | Home | 17.6% | 7.8% | 13.1% | 14.4% | L14Days | 25.9% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 13.9% |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 21.3% | 6.2% | 14.5% | 11.9% | Season | 21.4% | 7.1% | 7.5% | Home | 22.6% | 7.8% | 15.4% | 6.5% | L14Days | 21.4% | 7.1% | 7.5% | ||
| Jordan Lyles | Padres | L2 Yrs | 17.5% | 7.5% | 16.0% | 17.7% | Season | 23.4% | 8.0% | 13.0% | 16.8% | Home | 21.1% | 6.0% | 14.1% | 12.7% | L14Days | 21.6% | 9.8% | 25.0% | 22.9% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 16.9% | 7.8% | 13.1% | 16.7% | Season | 20.1% | 5.9% | 12.5% | 25.8% | Road | 18.4% | 8.7% | 15.7% | 17.2% | L14Days | 27.7% | 6.4% | 27.3% | 6.7% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 20.6% | 10.7% | 13.5% | 15.7% | Season | 23.0% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 21.7% | Road | 19.0% | 12.2% | 14.1% | 24.2% | L14Days | 22.7% | 12.5% | 11.8% | |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 16.9% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 6.4% | Season | 20.4% | 7.8% | 11.9% | 3.1% | Road | 15.5% | 8.6% | 13.1% | 10.7% | L14Days | 11.8% | 5.9% | 13.3% | 9.8% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 21.9% | 6.3% | 13.4% | 7.2% | Season | 19.1% | 5.1% | 17.2% | 10.3% | Home | 20.3% | 7.2% | 18.0% | 12.6% | L14Days | 17.0% | 6.4% | 12.5% | 11.1% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Yrs | 25.0% | 4.9% | 12.5% | 15.8% | Season | Home | 23.9% | 4.9% | 13.8% | 24.3% | L14Days | ||||||||
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 21.4% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 8.1% | Season | 16.5% | 6.7% | 11.4% | 12.8% | Home | 20.2% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 8.2% | L14Days | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% |
| Matt Moore | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 19.2% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 19.6% | Season | 16.5% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 34.1% | Home | 18.3% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 21.6% | L14Days | 23.1% | 7.7% | 27.8% | |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 34.3% | 6.4% | 9.4% | 9.5% | Season | 38.7% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 11.3% | Home | 36.6% | 6.8% | 10.6% | 4.6% | L14Days | 28.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.6% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Rays | L2 Yrs | 14.9% | 8.8% | 20.8% | 20.1% | Season | 21.1% | 5.3% | 14.3% | Road | 21.1% | 5.3% | 14.3% | L14Days | 21.1% | 5.3% | 14.3% | |||
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 23.4% | 8.2% | 16.4% | 17.8% | Season | 33.1% | 6.8% | 17.9% | 26.8% | Road | 23.3% | 7.6% | 21.1% | 16.6% | L14Days | 32.1% | 3.8% | 23.1% | 38.3% |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 24.0% | 5.8% | 13.2% | 6.3% | Season | 30.1% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 0.8% | Road | 25.7% | 6.5% | 20.0% | 7.7% | L14Days | 36.5% | 3.9% | 12.5% | -12.9% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 20.5% | 6.5% | 12.5% | 19.6% | Season | 18.4% | 4.6% | 13.3% | 25.5% | Road | 18.9% | 6.5% | 13.2% | 21.7% | L14Days | 10.6% | 6.4% | 16.7% | 46.0% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | L2 Yrs | 24.0% | 12.2% | 8.8% | 7.1% | Season | 24.6% | 11.5% | 5.4% | 3.0% | Road | 29.3% | 13.0% | 9.4% | -0.5% | L14Days | 13.0% | 13.0% | -11.7% | |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 16.8% | 8.3% | 12.7% | 7.9% | Season | 21.9% | 15.6% | 7.1% | -12.5% | Home | 15.7% | 7.0% | 20.0% | 10.3% | L14Days | 23.5% | 14.7% | -19.0% | |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 14.3% | 5.6% | 15.6% | 15.9% | Season | 25.7% | 7.1% | 12.9% | 14.5% | Road | 13.1% | 5.6% | 12.9% | 17.0% | L14Days | 26.7% | 4.4% | 37.5% | 25.8% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | Home | 22.5% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 11.8% | RH | 20.5% | 9.2% | 12.3% | 17.4% | L7Days | 20.9% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 24.2% |
| Royals | Road | 18.8% | 6.9% | 10.9% | 18.3% | LH | 21.3% | 8.1% | 11.4% | 16.9% | L7Days | 19.5% | 5.5% | 11.5% | 32.5% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.8% | 9.0% | 14.2% | 11.3% | RH | 23.4% | 8.8% | 14.3% | 8.0% | L7Days | 16.8% | 5.4% | 10.8% | 13.0% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.8% | 8.4% | 14.0% | 16.0% | RH | 18.9% | 8.1% | 15.5% | 19.9% | L7Days | 23.8% | 6.3% | 17.2% | 18.2% |
| Angels | Home | 21.4% | 9.1% | 12.8% | 19.4% | RH | 20.0% | 8.6% | 13.2% | 20.2% | L7Days | 18.3% | 6.6% | 14.5% | 25.1% |
| Marlins | Road | 24.5% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 11.8% | RH | 23.9% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 12.9% | L7Days | 23.3% | 4.7% | 11.4% | 22.1% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 23.8% | 9.2% | 13.9% | 16.8% | LH | 22.0% | 9.1% | 12.6% | 16.8% | L7Days | 16.6% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 17.7% |
| Brewers | Road | 21.1% | 8.1% | 15.4% | 12.3% | RH | 24.3% | 8.7% | 15.9% | 17.6% | L7Days | 18.5% | 12.5% | 14.3% | 16.6% |
| Mariners | Road | 18.3% | 8.3% | 11.7% | 23.6% | LH | 21.1% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 15.9% | L7Days | 23.0% | 5.5% | 9.3% | 11.0% |
| Astros | Home | 22.6% | 8.9% | 13.8% | 10.5% | LH | 21.5% | 8.0% | 11.7% | 14.1% | L7Days | 25.1% | 9.3% | 14.0% | 0.7% |
| Orioles | Road | 27.2% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 14.8% | LH | 23.2% | 8.3% | 12.7% | 14.1% | L7Days | 31.7% | 4.2% | 12.8% | 9.3% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.5% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 20.2% | RH | 22.0% | 8.9% | 12.5% | 16.2% | L7Days | 20.8% | 8.8% | 16.2% | 25.0% |
| Braves | Road | 20.6% | 8.8% | 13.5% | 15.8% | RH | 20.9% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 18.4% | L7Days | 18.0% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 23.7% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.1% | 8.9% | 11.9% | 20.7% | RH | 23.0% | 8.2% | 13.3% | 18.7% | L7Days | 21.0% | 7.8% | 17.0% | 20.9% |
| Indians | Home | 19.9% | 8.6% | 16.3% | 29.5% | RH | 22.9% | 8.4% | 16.1% | 24.1% | L7Days | 17.7% | 7.3% | 19.0% | 36.4% |
| Reds | Home | 23.6% | 10.4% | 12.4% | 18.3% | LH | 22.0% | 10.4% | 14.2% | 21.3% | L7Days | 22.7% | 8.2% | 20.0% | 33.3% |
| Phillies | Road | 27.0% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 8.1% | RH | 26.9% | 9.5% | 12.8% | 8.7% | L7Days | 30.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 26.2% | 8.9% | 13.9% | 14.9% | LH | 25.0% | 8.5% | 17.1% | 24.8% | L7Days | 18.0% | 10.6% | 19.0% | 30.6% |
| Yankees | Road | 23.7% | 7.8% | 17.4% | 18.6% | RH | 23.4% | 10.1% | 17.2% | 18.9% | L7Days | 28.2% | 7.5% | 20.8% | 23.7% |
| Athletics | Road | 23.4% | 8.3% | 16.9% | 24.6% | LH | 24.1% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 25.4% | L7Days | 23.1% | 9.2% | 15.5% | 35.3% |
| Rays | Road | 22.3% | 7.6% | 12.5% | 16.2% | RH | 21.6% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 17.2% | L7Days | 23.4% | 5.2% | 17.0% | 21.5% |
| Nationals | Home | 22.0% | 10.2% | 15.1% | 11.6% | RH | 20.7% | 9.9% | 15.4% | 14.3% | L7Days | 24.4% | 5.3% | 11.1% | 11.5% |
| Giants | Home | 22.9% | 7.7% | 13.8% | 23.5% | LH | 23.8% | 8.7% | 14.6% | 20.7% | L7Days | 21.9% | 5.0% | 18.4% | 18.6% |
| Pirates | Home | 17.8% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 6.4% | RH | 19.6% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 10.7% | L7Days | 20.1% | 5.0% | 11.3% | 27.9% |
| Rangers | Home | 25.4% | 10.2% | 14.4% | 21.8% | LH | 25.3% | 9.5% | 13.9% | 14.7% | L7Days | 25.8% | 12.7% | 5.9% | 12.0% |
| Padres | Home | 24.0% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 18.1% | LH | 25.3% | 7.5% | 15.6% | 16.3% | L7Days | 19.3% | 10.2% | 18.4% | 19.6% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.7% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 16.3% | RH | 20.9% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 20.6% | L7Days | 21.8% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 25.3% |
| Cubs | Home | 19.3% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 10.2% | RH | 20.7% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 12.3% | L7Days | 23.2% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 2.8% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.7 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.15 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 11.5% | 5.4% | 2.13 | 15.5% | 6.0% | 2.58 |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 25.0% | 11.5% | 2.17 | 23.3% | 11.2% | 2.08 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | ||||||
| Artie Lewicki | Tigers | 18.2% | 9.2% | 1.98 | 20.7% | 7.5% | 2.76 |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 15.7% | 8.3% | 1.89 | 18.5% | 7.7% | 2.40 |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 22.4% | 9.3% | 2.41 | 8.0% | 5.9% | 1.36 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 17.3% | 9.6% | 1.80 | 16.3% | 10.3% | 1.58 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 27.6% | 11.2% | 2.46 | 27.8% | 11.5% | 2.42 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 19.4% | 9.0% | 2.16 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 2.12 |
| James Paxton | Mariners | 32.0% | 13.6% | 2.35 | 27.1% | 12.1% | 2.24 |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | 18.7% | 10.7% | 1.75 | 20.3% | 10.6% | 1.92 |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | 21.4% | 9.6% | 2.23 | 21.4% | 9.6% | 2.23 |
| Jordan Lyles | Padres | 23.4% | 10.5% | 2.23 | 25.6% | 10.6% | 2.42 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 20.1% | 9.0% | 2.23 | 22.2% | 7.5% | 2.96 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 23.0% | 9.8% | 2.35 | 23.6% | 11.6% | 2.03 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 20.4% | 9.1% | 2.24 | 19.5% | 9.0% | 2.17 |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 19.1% | 9.2% | 2.08 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 1.70 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | ||||||
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 16.5% | 9.2% | 1.79 | 13.9% | 7.2% | 1.93 |
| Matt Moore | Rangers | 16.5% | 10.2% | 1.62 | 22.6% | 12.0% | 1.88 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 38.7% | 17.5% | 2.21 | 40.4% | 18.2% | 2.22 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Rays | 21.1% | 8.6% | 2.45 | 21.1% | 8.6% | 2.45 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 33.1% | 14.2% | 2.33 | 30.9% | 12.1% | 2.55 |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | 30.1% | 10.5% | 2.87 | 35.4% | 10.2% | 3.47 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 18.4% | 10.2% | 1.80 | 11.5% | 8.3% | 1.39 |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 24.6% | 10.5% | 2.34 | 19.1% | 9.2% | 2.08 |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | 21.9% | 10.0% | 2.19 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 2.19 |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | 25.7% | 9.6% | 2.68 | 26.9% | 10.1% | 2.66 |
Jose Urena has seen a concerning drop in his SwStr%, but he’s only been below 9% twice over the last month (both against Atlanta) and was at 10.2% last time out.
Ross Stripling will not sustain this strikeout rate to the surprise of nobody. While his SwStr% has been elite in his last two starts, that’s been the case with many pitchers against the Phillies and Padres this year.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.18 ERA – 4.16 SIERA – 4.12 xFIP – 4.22 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 6.80 | 4.74 | -2.06 | 6.80 | -2.14 | 5.40 | -1.40 | 8.25 | 1.45 | 5.02 | 4.46 | -0.56 | 4.39 | -0.63 | 4.79 | -0.23 |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 3.66 | 3.82 | 0.16 | 3.66 | 0.06 | 3.25 | -0.41 | 4.90 | 1.24 | 2.59 | 4.22 | 1.63 | 4.18 | 1.59 | 3.14 | 0.55 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | ||||||||||||||||
| Artie Lewicki | Tigers | 3.60 | 4.20 | 0.60 | 3.60 | 0.86 | 2.51 | -1.09 | 4.72 | 1.12 | 2.57 | 3.80 | 1.23 | 3.99 | 1.42 | 2.26 | -0.31 |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 2.13 | 3.78 | 1.65 | 2.13 | 1.76 | 3.31 | 1.18 | 4.22 | 2.09 | 1.32 | 4.12 | 2.80 | 4.04 | 2.72 | 2.97 | 1.65 |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 1.62 | 4.22 | 2.60 | 1.62 | 2.71 | 3.35 | 1.73 | 5.32 | 3.70 | 3.60 | 6.97 | 3.37 | 7.63 | 4.03 | 4.71 | 1.11 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 3.73 | 4.44 | 0.71 | 3.73 | 0.75 | 4.61 | 0.88 | 4.68 | 0.95 | 7.85 | 4.82 | -3.03 | 4.63 | -3.22 | 6.49 | -1.36 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 2.02 | 2.85 | 0.83 | 2.02 | 0.67 | 3.11 | 1.09 | 2.48 | 0.46 | 1.39 | 2.43 | 1.04 | 2.24 | 0.85 | 2.34 | 0.95 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 3.65 | 3.86 | 0.21 | 3.65 | -0.06 | 3.92 | 0.27 | 3.31 | -0.34 | 3.19 | 3.74 | 0.55 | 3.39 | 0.20 | 2.66 | -0.53 |
| James Paxton | Mariners | 3.13 | 3.10 | -0.03 | 3.13 | 0.18 | 2.97 | -0.16 | 2.75 | -0.38 | 2.00 | 3.38 | 1.38 | 3.55 | 1.55 | 2.92 | 0.92 |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | 8.53 | 4.66 | -3.87 | 8.53 | -3.70 | 5.80 | -2.73 | 6.36 | -2.17 | 4.76 | 4.32 | -0.44 | 4.3 | -0.46 | 3.35 | -1.41 |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | 0.64 | 3.70 | 3.06 | 0.64 | 2.89 | 2.26 | 1.62 | 4.42 | 3.78 | 0.64 | 3.70 | 3.06 | 3.53 | 2.89 | 2.26 | 1.62 |
| Jordan Lyles | Padres | 3.65 | 3.80 | 0.15 | 3.65 | 0.37 | 4.09 | 0.44 | 5.63 | 1.98 | 3.64 | 3.57 | -0.07 | 3.46 | -0.18 | 4.12 | 0.48 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 4.41 | 3.88 | -0.53 | 4.41 | -0.43 | 3.98 | -0.43 | 3.61 | -0.80 | 4.60 | 3.45 | -1.15 | 3.32 | -1.28 | 3.93 | -0.67 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 2.65 | 4.15 | 1.50 | 2.65 | 1.68 | 3.70 | 1.05 | 4.32 | 1.67 | 2.96 | 3.93 | 0.97 | 4.17 | 1.21 | 3.51 | 0.55 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 3.43 | 4.20 | 0.77 | 3.43 | 0.67 | 4.03 | 0.60 | 3.46 | 0.03 | 2.56 | 4.19 | 1.63 | 4.07 | 1.51 | 3.71 | 1.15 |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 3.19 | 3.97 | 0.78 | 3.19 | 0.63 | 4.40 | 1.21 | 2.95 | -0.24 | 3.19 | 3.97 | 0.78 | 3.68 | 0.49 | 3.37 | 0.18 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | ||||||||||||||||
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 5.68 | 5.13 | -0.55 | 5.68 | -0.22 | 5.21 | -0.47 | 7.22 | 1.54 | 5.06 | 5.48 | 0.42 | 5.68 | 0.62 | 4.16 | -0.90 |
| Matt Moore | Rangers | 7.85 | 5.03 | -2.82 | 7.85 | -2.33 | 4.84 | -3.01 | 7.68 | -0.17 | 8.15 | 4.37 | -3.78 | 4.53 | -3.62 | 4.07 | -4.08 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 1.92 | 2.25 | 0.33 | 1.92 | 0.70 | 1.95 | 0.03 | 1.40 | -0.52 | 2.10 | 2.07 | -0.03 | 2.25 | 0.15 | 1.92 | -0.18 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Rays | 0.00 | 3.79 | 3.79 | 0.00 | 3.63 | 2.28 | 2.28 | 3.17 | 3.17 | 0.00 | 3.79 | 3.79 | 3.63 | 3.63 | 2.28 | 2.28 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 2.99 | 2.75 | -0.24 | 2.99 | -0.36 | 3.15 | 0.16 | 2.54 | -0.45 | 4.30 | 3.27 | -1.03 | 3.19 | -1.11 | 3.52 | -0.78 |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | 1.68 | 2.78 | 1.10 | 1.68 | 1.05 | 2.16 | 0.48 | 1.98 | 0.30 | 1.24 | 2.06 | 0.82 | 1.72 | 0.48 | 1.22 | -0.02 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 3.60 | 4.10 | 0.50 | 3.60 | 0.48 | 4.19 | 0.59 | 3.87 | 0.27 | 7.46 | 4.99 | -2.47 | 5.04 | -2.42 | 5.88 | -1.58 |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 2.73 | 4.18 | 1.45 | 2.73 | 1.23 | 3.13 | 0.40 | 3.38 | 0.65 | 1.93 | 4.99 | 3.06 | 4.66 | 2.73 | 3.15 | 1.22 |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | 2.25 | 4.73 | 2.48 | 2.25 | 2.41 | 4.05 | 1.80 | 2.08 | -0.17 | 2.25 | 4.73 | 2.48 | 4.66 | 2.41 | 4.05 | 1.80 |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | 4.50 | 3.71 | -0.79 | 4.50 | -0.76 | 3.80 | -0.70 | 4.51 | 0.01 | 5.40 | 3.74 | -1.66 | 3.68 | -1.72 | 3.76 | -1.64 |
Corey Kluber has a .239 BABIP and 90.1 LOB%.
Jason Vargas has a .366 BABIP, 60.6 LOB% and 18.2 HR/FB. He’s not a superstar, but those numbers won’t stick. The only profile mark against him below is a high line drive rate and that’s more descriptive than predictive. He has one of the lowest aEVs on the board yet he’s getting blasted for line drives and home runs all over the place?
Kyle Hendricks has a .242 BABIP and 81.9 LOB%. He’s been beating his estimators every year, but these marks are still a bit better than his usual fare.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.1 LD% – 10.3 IFFB% – 86.3 Z-Contact% – 36.5 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 0.328 | 0.371 | 0.043 | 51.7% | 19.7% | 7.8% | 92.0% | 40.9% |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 0.295 | 0.314 | 0.019 | 37.5% | 27.9% | 12.8% | 85.2% | 37.3% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 0.302 | |||||||
| Artie Lewicki | Tigers | 0.284 | 0.367 | 0.083 | 34.7% | 28.6% | 11.1% | 88.5% | 41.4% |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 0.310 | 0.247 | -0.063 | 61.5% | 16.7% | 5.9% | 87.7% | 37.1% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 0.282 | 0.237 | -0.045 | 52.3% | 18.0% | 13.2% | 89.0% | 35.0% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 0.281 | 0.266 | -0.015 | 44.6% | 19.3% | 15.0% | 89.3% | 33.2% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 0.286 | 0.239 | -0.047 | 47.9% | 21.7% | 12.1% | 89.3% | 31.2% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 0.271 | 0.277 | 0.006 | 54.8% | 20.2% | 10.5% | 88.4% | 34.0% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | 0.291 | 0.254 | -0.037 | 34.3% | 20.0% | 12.5% | 82.2% | 37.2% |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | 0.314 | 0.366 | 0.052 | 37.2% | 24.4% | 6.1% | 84.6% | 34.3% |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | 0.297 | 0.300 | 0.003 | 57.5% | 15.0% | 18.2% | 85.7% | 28.1% |
| Jordan Lyles | Padres | 0.308 | 0.254 | -0.054 | 44.1% | 16.2% | 5.6% | 89.1% | 34.7% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 0.288 | 0.283 | -0.005 | 51.7% | 16.7% | 14.1% | 85.8% | 38.4% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 0.269 | 0.252 | -0.017 | 41.3% | 16.1% | 18.0% | 86.2% | 42.7% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 0.300 | 0.270 | -0.030 | 47.3% | 17.0% | 10.4% | 86.6% | 34.6% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 0.262 | 0.242 | -0.020 | 48.3% | 19.9% | 7.8% | 87.7% | 26.8% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 0.299 | |||||||
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 0.312 | 0.310 | -0.002 | 26.0% | 20.4% | 15.2% | 85.4% | 44.5% |
| Matt Moore | Rangers | 0.302 | 0.396 | 0.094 | 38.8% | 21.2% | 10.3% | 88.3% | 38.1% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 0.274 | 0.267 | -0.007 | 34.1% | 16.5% | 14.8% | 74.8% | 34.7% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Rays | 0.271 | 0.000 | -0.271 | 50.0% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 85.0% | 25.7% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 0.273 | 0.248 | -0.025 | 45.1% | 22.5% | 8.9% | 85.7% | 25.7% |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | 0.299 | 0.333 | 0.034 | 47.6% | 19.4% | 19.5% | 87.2% | 31.5% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 0.279 | 0.225 | -0.054 | 43.5% | 22.9% | 8.0% | 90.6% | 32.3% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 0.284 | 0.264 | -0.020 | 50.6% | 15.2% | 8.9% | 81.4% | 37.3% |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | 0.292 | 0.205 | -0.087 | 52.5% | 12.5% | 7.1% | 80.0% | 37.4% |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | 0.299 | 0.306 | 0.007 | 28.8% | 28.8% | 9.7% | 86.2% | 46.0% |
Corey Kluber had a .342 BABIP in 63 innings in his rookie season in 2012. His BABIP has dropped every single year since then to .267 last year. The defense has been strong, the profile is fine, but this is still probably a bit too low.
James Paxton is over 40 points below his career BABIP. He does have a solid profile as a fly ball pitcher who gets a decent amount of popups. There’s probably some regression here too.
StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .315 wOBA)
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 0.377 | 0.038 | 0.368 | -0.004 | 0.357 | 0.008 | -1.900 | 89.7 | 7.3 | 44.700 | 179 |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 0.325 | -0.020 | 0.323 | -0.019 | 0.330 | -0.045 | -1.300 | 85.8 | 7.1 | 40.400 | 141 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | |||||||||||
| Artie Lewicki | Tigers | 0.387 | -0.074 | 0.361 | 0.039 | 0.369 | -0.091 | -0.700 | 92.4 | 6.1 | 51.000 | 49 |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 0.282 | -0.032 | 0.279 | -0.019 | 0.247 | -0.027 | -0.600 | 89.9 | 5.1 | 34.600 | 78 |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 0.293 | -0.035 | 0.281 | -0.002 | 0.310 | -0.032 | -1.800 | 84.1 | 2.3 | 25.800 | 132 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 0.303 | 0.006 | 0.315 | -0.006 | 0.318 | 0.047 | 0.600 | 84.2 | 6.6 | 27.700 | 166 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 0.285 | -0.046 | 0.229 | -0.011 | 0.266 | -0.015 | -0.400 | 87.6 | 7.7 | 31.800 | 220 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 0.308 | -0.009 | 0.276 | -0.019 | 0.330 | -0.051 | -0.400 | 88.7 | 5.2 | 37.100 | 229 |
| James Paxton | Mariners | 0.297 | -0.042 | 0.284 | -0.025 | 0.281 | -0.096 | -0.400 | 88.7 | 9.0 | 39.000 | 177 |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | 0.367 | 0.038 | 0.320 | 0.015 | 0.280 | 0.013 | -0.800 | 85 | 6.8 | 26.100 | 88 |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | 0.231 | 0.018 | 0.307 | 0.018 | 0.231 | 0.018 | -0.300 | 85.3 | 0.0 | 32.500 | 40 |
| Jordan Lyles | Padres | 0.292 | -0.012 | 0.283 | 0.013 | 0.286 | 0.005 | 0.700 | 88 | 6.6 | 31.400 | 137 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 0.332 | -0.031 | 0.355 | -0.064 | 0.318 | -0.033 | -0.600 | 88.9 | 6.8 | 38.800 | 206 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 0.327 | -0.050 | 0.378 | -0.061 | 0.357 | -0.055 | -0.200 | 89.2 | 7.5 | 42.900 | 147 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 0.308 | -0.012 | 0.344 | -0.008 | 0.312 | -0.034 | 0.500 | 85.3 | 5.7 | 25.900 | 193 |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 0.334 | -0.046 | 0.324 | -0.034 | 0.349 | -0.073 | -0.900 | 86 | 8.8 | 34.100 | 205 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 0.313 | -0.024 | |||||||||
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 0.369 | 0.004 | 0.328 | 0.016 | 0.345 | 0.019 | -1.800 | 87.9 | 12.2 | 36.700 | 196 |
| Matt Moore | Rangers | 0.379 | 0.027 | 0.366 | -0.031 | 0.338 | 0.074 | -1.000 | 91.3 | 6.5 | 47.100 | 170 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 0.254 | -0.018 | 0.237 | 0.012 | 0.239 | 0.008 | -0.800 | 87.8 | 7.8 | 37.700 | 167 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Rays | 0.204 | -0.168 | 0.204 | -0.168 | 0.204 | -0.168 | -0.700 | ||||
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 0.285 | -0.031 | 0.329 | 0.014 | 0.322 | -0.029 | -0.500 | 89 | 8.0 | 36.600 | 175 |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | 0.241 | 0.025 | 0.297 | 0.006 | 0.212 | 0.020 | -0.800 | 84.8 | 3.2 | 24.600 | 126 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 0.356 | -0.083 | 0.344 | -0.021 | 0.447 | -0.064 | 0.200 | 89.4 | 8.8 | 40.800 | 228 |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 0.271 | -0.006 | 0.285 | -0.002 | 0.271 | -0.032 | -1.200 | 85.8 | 3.0 | 27.700 | 166 |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | 0.270 | -0.011 | 0.337 | 0.060 | 0.270 | -0.011 | -1.100 | 85.6 | 7.5 | 22.500 | 40 |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | 0.343 | -0.025 | 0.344 | -0.006 | 0.363 | -0.021 | 0.000 | 88.5 | 7.9 | 39.500 | 76 |
Basically half the board has an xwOBA below .300 today, which makes things a bit more difficult. Nobody reaches a .400 xwOBA, which is either a bit of a rarity or expected regression at this point in the season. Since it’s my first time working with these numbers, I’m not sure which it is yet.
If you sort by aEV however, you’ll see a stark split with a good chunk of the board at or below 86 mph then a gap to 87.6 mph.
Sean Manaea has a .447 xwOBA over the last month, highest on the board by a massive margin.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Upon further research, this slate is not as optimal as it first looked. There are not many spots where we can point to a guy and say that he’s severely under-priced, but there should be some good spots.
Value Tier One
Max Scherzer (1) faces a Rays offense with an 18.2 K-BB% over the last week. They lose the DH tonight.
Value Tier Two
James Paxton (3) is not in a great spot, but manageable in a very favorable park. He’s tossed in a mediocre start every now and then, including last time out, but the upside is obviously enormous and he costs just $900 more than Keuchel on FanDuel, where he may be a top tier guy today. He’s just above $10K on DraftKings though.
Dallas Keuchel (5) hasn’t been good over his last three starts, but they were all really tough spots and that probably makes him quite under-valued today. While it’s still not a great spot, the park adjustment keeps it manageable and the price has dropped as his strikeout rate has actually increased over the last month. He’s moved away from a sinker that’s been a bad pitch this year and increased his cutter usage, which misses a few more bats.
Value Tier Three
Corey Kluber (2) appears to be getting the ball rolling, although there’s nothing specific that can immediately be pointed to as the reason (perhaps if there were just four games on the board like yesterday). The price tag is extremely high and the matchup is marginal and the strikeouts haven’t always been there this year, but, barring an injury, he’s as close as one gets to a lock for at least six innings.
Andrew Heaney is reasonably priced and appears top third of the board in both strikeout rate and contact management and while the Royals are a bit more potent against LHP, the park favors pitchers and the strikeout potential is increased a bit.
Patrick Corbin (4) is not in the ideal spot we might be used to in San Francisco. This has been an offense with some thump, but they will strike out and it’s still a favorable park. He’s not been as dominant as earlier in the season, but is still striking out a ton of batters and doesn’t reach the $10K mark on either site tonight.
Jose Urena has gone at least six innings in six of his last seven starts and that’s half the battle at a low cost that’s still only $5.6K on DraftKings. He hasn’t been terrible, is in a decent (maybe favorable) spot and has been missing bats at a near league average pace this year. Don’t expect a breakout, but this is too cheap for a potential league average arm.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Jason Vargas is a very interesting compliment to a higher priced arm on DraftKings at only $5K in a great spot. A lot of his numbers are scary and he may get pulled after two times through the order (the bullpen may actually be rested after a day off on Monday), but if you look at just SwStr% and aEV, he’s a borderline All-Star. No, he’s not, but he’s also probably not as bad as some might assume.
Kyle Hendricks has been missing more bats recently, though you might not know it from the single strikeout in his last start. Contact quality has been a concern recently, but he’s also in the highest strikeout upside spot tonight.
Joe Musgrove has always been a guy with good (not great) underlying numbers. He’s a competent pitcher at a competent price. Don’t love the matchup, but if he’s going to be popping off seven innings per start (he probably won’t), you’re paying around $1K per inning right now and you generally only say that with guys who are expected to get lit up.
Ross Stripling costs nearly $10K on DraftKings and we certainly shouldn’t expect him to exceed a 30% strikeout rate against the Pirates, but it’s perfectly reasonable to expect him to manage contact well and perhaps go beyond six innings again.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.