Advanced Stats – Pitching: Wednesday, August 30th
We’re going to have to hurry in order to beat the noon start. A couple of rainouts on Tuesday will be made up as double headers today, though a nine game night slate remains as such without either site including the second games on their boards. See yesterday’s article for pitchers who were rained out on Tuesday and starting today. Double header pitchers who weren’t listed yesterday are listed below, allowing for everyone to be covered, though notes will only be on the night games included on the main slate tonight.
If that was confusing, the good news is that you’ll only have to put up with me for one more day. We’re doing this for the last time this season tomorrow.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 1.8 | 4.64 | 5.44 | 39.6% | 1.01 | 4.84 | 3.02 | WAS | 113 | 103 | 94 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 0.8 | 5 | 5.39 | 47.2% | 0.94 | 5.24 | 6.44 | HOU | 122 | 125 | 92 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 7 | 4.85 | 5.58 | 31.5% | 1.02 | 6.03 | 5.5 | BAL | 109 | 102 | 144 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | -0.3 | 3.88 | 6.26 | 53.9% | 1.02 | 3.8 | 4.04 | MIL | 91 | 93 | 45 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | -3 | 4.36 | 5.83 | 50.0% | 1.39 | 3.78 | 4.88 | DET | 88 | 93 | 95 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | -2 | 4.43 | 5.16 | 36.3% | 1.02 | 4.64 | 4.97 | STL | 97 | 101 | 109 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | -4.6 | 3.59 | 6.44 | 59.8% | 0.94 | 3.21 | 3.32 | TEX | 83 | 89 | 98 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | -0.1 | 5.21 | 5.37 | 39.1% | 1.04 | 5.67 | 7.05 | MIN | 103 | 93 | 101 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 6.2 | 4.84 | 4.39 | 44.2% | 1.02 | 5.42 | 4.38 | NYM | 106 | 100 | 104 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 3.4 | 4.16 | 5.41 | 46.6% | 1.13 | 4.13 | 5.63 | ARI | 105 | 79 | 103 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | -1.6 | 4.11 | 5.95 | 49.7% | 0.96 | 3.98 | 4.61 | CHC | 104 | 97 | 111 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | -0.7 | 4.04 | 5.93 | 42.7% | 1.03 | 3.83 | 3.38 | BOS | 95 | 100 | 85 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 2.1 | 4.52 | 5.49 | 33.0% | 1.06 | 5 | 8.04 | KAN | 90 | 90 | 57 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 3 | 4.68 | 5.61 | 38.8% | 1.06 | 4.74 | 4.92 | TAM | 99 | 87 | 122 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.8 | 4.22 | 5.84 | 39.9% | 0.96 | 4.37 | 4.61 | ATL | 90 | 88 | 81 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 0.9 | 4.27 | 5.48 | 40.8% | 1.01 | 4.16 | 5.42 | CLE | 102 | 103 | 146 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | -0.3 | 4.64 | 5.13 | 38.8% | 1.04 | 4.31 | 3.12 | CHW | 93 | 89 | 94 |
| Jose Quintana | CHC | 4 | 3.98 | 6.22 | 42.2% | 0.96 | 3.81 | 3.73 | PIT | 84 | 85 | 54 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | -1 | 4.38 | 6.06 | 38.8% | 0.96 | 4.62 | 4.26 | PHI | 98 | 88 | 126 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 1 | 3.83 | 6.49 | 33.8% | 1.39 | 4.01 | 2.97 | COL | 93 | 83 | 92 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | -9.8 | 4.59 | 5.91 | 50.9% | 0.91 | 4.75 | 4.52 | ANA | 97 | 97 | 87 |
| Parker Bridwell | ANA | 4.1 | 4.84 | 6.16 | 37.9% | 0.91 | 4.37 | 4.39 | OAK | 88 | 102 | 111 |
| Rafael Montero | NYM | 1.7 | 4.76 | 4.87 | 44.2% | 1.02 | 4.39 | 5 | CIN | 102 | 101 | 97 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 5.3 | 3.86 | 6.6 | 42.6% | 1.03 | 4.13 | 4.47 | TOR | 91 | 90 | 88 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | -5.2 | 3.7 | 5.57 | 0.437 | 1.13 | 3.82 | 2.34 | LOS | 102 | 114 | 92 |
| Ryan Merritt | CLE | 1.1 | 4.06 | 4.78 | 0.528 | 1.01 | 3.61 | 4.87 | NYY | 110 | 91 | 94 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 2 | 3.13 | 6.18 | 0.417 | 1.01 | 3.39 | 2.6 | MMIA | 100 | 98 | 104 |
| Travis Wood | SDG | -3.9 | 4.61 | 4.65 | 0.36 | 0.91 | 5.05 | 6.68 | SFO | 81 | 78 | 62 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | -4.1 | 5.1 | 6.22 | 0.479 | 0.91 | 4.92 | 4.98 | SDG | 86 | 77 | 61 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | -6 | 4.65 | 5.34 | 0.472 | 1.02 | 4.63 | 5.16 | SEA | 91 | 101 | 67 |
Dallas Keuchel has only struck out more than four batters in one of six starts since returning from the DL. However, he does have a double digit SwStr% in five of those games, including 19% last time out with just four strikeouts, so they’re likely coming. He has a 65.9 GB% for the season (63.3% since returning), although his rate of hard contact has increased, 32.4% since returning, 24.9% for the year. Texas is a terrible road offense (26 K%) and not very good against LHP either (24.4 K%). This is a very good spot for him. He’s allowed one run in 12.2 innings against Texas this year, striking out exactly seven both times, the most recent one since returning from the DL.
J.A. Happ has struck out at least seven in four of his last five starts with an 11.2 SwStr% in August. Since the All-Star break (eight starts), he has a -1.4 Hard-Soft%, muting contact to batters from both sides of the plate over that span (hard hit rate below 23%). The Red Sox are somewhat of a neutral matchup here, due mostly to excellent peripherals against LHP (6.1 K-BB%). That comes with a 9.9 HR/FB and 6.3 Hard-Soft% against southpaws too though.
Jose Quintana is still not missing enough bats to support his strikeout rate. He’s also now walked 10 of his last 74 batters and offers up league average ground ball and contact rates. Unless you’re considering a pitcher in San Diego though, he has the best matchup on the board. The Pirates have little power and a 24 K% over the last week.
Rick Porcello allows too much hard contact, but he does have a league average strikeout rate, while his hard hit rate is six points less against RHBs with a ground ball rate that’s 10 points higher and league average. The Blue Jays offer a slight matchup boost, although they do have a 24.3 Hard-Soft% over the last week. Only two pitchers have allowed more HRs than his 31 in 27 starts though.
Robbie Ray missed nearly a month after taking a line drive off his head. He struck out nine of 20 Mets in his return with 94 pitches. His 31.2 K% blows away every other pitcher on the slate. The only other guy above 23% has a below average SwStr%. Concerns include an 11.7 BB%, which nearly matches the Dodgers 11.4 BB% vs LHP, the highest rate of contact above a 95 mph exit velocity on the entire board (43.6%), and a terrible park. He has the worst matchup on the slate by a decent margin.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Hyun-Jin Ryu (.301 – 81.3% – 16.7) has six walks against six strikeouts over his last two starts. Still, it’s really the spot that pushes him out of play for us tonight. It may still be high strikeout, but the Diamondbacks are certainly improved vs LHP and hit the ball very hard at home.
Jason Vargas (.294 – 79.5% – 10.6) is suddenly missing bats again, but did have just a 5.2 SwStr% with two strikeouts in his last start. He’s in a high strikeout spot against the Rays tonight (26.2% vs LHP). However, he has a 43.8 Hard% in nine starts since the beginning of July, which has led to 11 HRs, five of them in a home park where it’s difficult to hit them. The Rays have reduced power against LHP (11.5 HR/FB), but a 19.7 HR/FB over the last month.
Parker Bridwell (.265 – 83.9% – 11.5) generates an infield fly per start. It’s basically like adding an additional strikeout, but it doesn’t score as well. He doesn’t actually strike out many and while that may increase against the A’s (25% on the road and vs RHP), he allows quite a bit of hard contact and has been relying on a high strand rate to get him out of trouble.
Jake Odorizzi (.242 – 73.2% – 16.7) has allowed 27 HRs in 22 starts. Only twice this season has he failed to allow at least one with 17 of them going to RHBs, who have a 43.8 Hard% against him.
Andrew Cashner (.274 – 76.4% – 8.4) somehow keeps doing this thing where he’s allowed 3.4% Barrels/BBE. He has just a 2.6 K-BB% and it should be worse against the Astros (17.5 K% vs RHP). Tampa Bay (where the game will be played) has a similar run environment to Houston, but may be less power friendly.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Jose Berrios has struck out 16 of his last 47, but generated a swinging strike rate above 9% for the first time in August last time out. He does face the White Sox for the second straight start and his 28.3% 95+ mph EV is second best on the slate. He’s the bubble on tonight’s slate, but a pitcher with a league average strikeout and swinging strike rate with an ERA and estimators a bit above four costs more than $10K on DraftKings.
Ivan Nova has allowed 20 HRs over his last 15 starts with a 36.8 Hard%. While his peripherals are much better against RHBs (16.4 K-BB%) over this span, HRs have been split almost evenly with a hard hit rate above 35% to batters from either side.
Rafael Montero has been missing bats at an above average rate and his 83.6 mph aEV is the lowest on the slate. He hasn’t exceeded six innings in over a month, even making it that far in just two of his last six starts and he’s pitching in a park that you don’t have to hit it very hard in to hit it out. Case in point, the Reds have a 15.8 HR/FB at home with just a 28.7 Hard%. Of all the excluded pitchers tonight, he might be the most interesting because the range of outcomes is so wide. Risk embracers could add him as an SP2 on DraftKings at a low price and get ready for a roller coaster ride.
Kendall Graveman has the highest aEV on the entire board, any slate (89.2 mph) with just a 16.3 K%.
Ty Blach gets up to maybe a 15% strikeout rate against the Padres? He does benefit from inducing contact about as hard as his team hits it (85.6 mph EV), though with teams where these things match up for both hitters and pitchers (Detroit, Arizona), you wonder how much of it is a park effect.
Travis Wood has the best run prevention matchup on the board and still rates this low. He’s struck out just eight of his last 73 batters without much improvement expected against the Giants (18.9 K% vs LHP).
Homer Bailey struck out 10 two starts back, still walking five and allowing six runs with a 50% hard hit rate. He then left his last start after three shutout innings due to a shoulder issue and hasn’t pitched in a week since.
Derek Holland walked four with a 60% fly ball rate in his last start in Colorado. Just one run. RHBs have a .470 wOBA with 18 HRs since June 2nd. That’s a HR every 14.2 batters faced. His 8.4% Barrels/BBE is highest on the slate. The Twins do have just a 21.8 Hard% over the last week though.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 20.1% | 9.5% | Road | 21.5% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 4.2% |
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 16.6% | 10.0% | Road | 14.5% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 7.7% | 9.6% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 19.9% | 8.5% | Road | 17.1% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 18.6% | 11.6% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 23.4% | 8.5% | Road | 24.3% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 5.4% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Years | 17.1% | 6.9% | Home | 16.5% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 17.3% | 5.8% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 20.9% | 8.0% | Home | 20.7% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 11.4% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 21.6% | 6.8% | Home | 20.7% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 5.9% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 15.9% | 9.7% | Road | 14.5% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 20.0% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | L2 Years | 18.1% | 9.8% | Home | 14.9% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 15.4% |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | L2 Years | 21.9% | 7.6% | Road | 21.7% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 13.3% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 17.1% | 4.3% | Road | 17.2% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 7.7% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 22.3% | 7.1% | Home | 22.7% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 5.8% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 20.8% | 8.2% | Road | 19.5% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 22.0% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 18.6% | 7.2% | Home | 18.5% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 11.1% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 21.1% | 6.9% | Home | 21.5% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 23.9% | 10.9% |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Years | 22.5% | 7.6% | Home | 25.7% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 10.0% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 20.5% | 9.3% | Home | 22.3% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 34.0% | 8.5% |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | L2 Years | 23.1% | 7.1% | Home | 24.1% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 12.0% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 20.3% | 7.3% | Road | 19.9% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 5.6% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 25.7% | 7.5% | Road | 25.8% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 3.8% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 14.5% | 6.1% | Road | 12.9% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 17.3% | 5.8% |
| Parker Bridwell | Angels | L2 Years | 15.6% | 5.4% | Home | 16.4% | 3.5% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 2.1% |
| Rafael Montero | Mets | L2 Years | 21.8% | 12.3% | Road | 23.8% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 11.8% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 21.5% | 4.3% | Road | 20.7% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 7.7% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 28.9% | 10.2% | Home | 27.0% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 45.0% | 10.0% |
| Ryan Merritt | Indians | L2 Years | 11.5% | 1.9% | Road | 12.3% | 1.8% | L14 Days | 8.9% | 4.4% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 30.8% | 6.8% | Home | 29.4% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 34.9% | 4.7% |
| Travis Wood | Padres | L2 Years | 19.4% | 9.8% | Home | 15.9% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 9.8% | 7.8% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 11.8% | 5.8% | Road | 9.6% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 10.4% | 8.3% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 20.1% | 10.6% | Home | 19.0% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 12.2% | 4.1% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | Home | 20.2% | 9.0% | LH | 21.7% | 7.5% | L7Days | 21.3% | 9.0% |
| Astros | Home | 16.6% | 7.8% | RH | 17.5% | 8.0% | L7Days | 17.8% | 6.5% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.6% | 7.1% | LH | 23.6% | 6.6% | L7Days | 23.4% | 5.3% |
| Brewers | Home | 26.5% | 8.5% | RH | 25.8% | 8.5% | L7Days | 34.9% | 7.6% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.8% | 8.6% | RH | 22.3% | 8.9% | L7Days | 25.3% | 6.5% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.6% | 9.0% | RH | 21.7% | 9.2% | L7Days | 20.2% | 10.7% |
| Rangers | Road | 26.0% | 7.8% | LH | 24.4% | 8.0% | L7Days | 23.3% | 5.9% |
| Twins | Home | 21.5% | 10.1% | LH | 20.5% | 9.6% | L7Days | 23.1% | 8.3% |
| Mets | Road | 21.2% | 8.2% | RH | 19.8% | 8.9% | L7Days | 21.0% | 9.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 23.8% | 9.6% | LH | 25.2% | 8.1% | L7Days | 25.7% | 10.1% |
| Cubs | Home | 22.0% | 9.9% | RH | 22.3% | 9.3% | L7Days | 25.1% | 10.9% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.6% | 8.7% | LH | 17.1% | 11.0% | L7Days | 21.9% | 9.4% |
| Royals | Home | 18.8% | 6.6% | RH | 20.3% | 6.6% | L7Days | 20.5% | 4.9% |
| Rays | Road | 24.6% | 8.8% | LH | 26.2% | 9.7% | L7Days | 24.3% | 8.1% |
| Braves | Road | 19.3% | 7.5% | RH | 19.5% | 7.0% | L7Days | 19.0% | 7.1% |
| Indians | Road | 19.0% | 9.4% | LH | 17.6% | 10.4% | L7Days | 20.7% | 11.6% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.7% | 6.1% | RH | 22.8% | 6.8% | L7Days | 28.2% | 8.3% |
| Pirates | Road | 19.9% | 8.5% | LH | 19.9% | 9.3% | L7Days | 24.0% | 7.7% |
| Phillies | Home | 23.1% | 8.3% | RH | 23.8% | 7.7% | L7Days | 25.3% | 7.7% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.1% | 8.4% | RH | 22.3% | 8.0% | L7Days | 22.1% | 7.9% |
| Angels | Home | 18.4% | 8.0% | RH | 19.5% | 8.3% | L7Days | 20.1% | 8.3% |
| Athletics | Road | 24.9% | 9.3% | RH | 24.8% | 9.3% | L7Days | 23.9% | 11.1% |
| Reds | Home | 21.6% | 9.8% | RH | 20.8% | 9.5% | L7Days | 23.8% | 12.1% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 20.5% | 8.7% | RH | 20.7% | 8.5% | L7Days | 20.7% | 6.9% |
| Dodgers | Road | 22.0% | 10.8% | LH | 22.3% | 11.4% | L7Days | 23.4% | 9.1% |
| Yankees | Home | 23.0% | 10.3% | LH | 23.2% | 10.2% | L7Days | 16.9% | 10.7% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.5% | 6.9% | RH | 20.5% | 7.8% | L7Days | 20.1% | 9.7% |
| Giants | Road | 19.3% | 7.9% | LH | 18.9% | 8.0% | L7Days | 22.4% | 6.7% |
| Padres | Home | 24.5% | 8.2% | LH | 25.3% | 8.1% | L7Days | 21.4% | 5.4% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.1% | 7.4% | RH | 21.0% | 7.5% | L7Days | 24.8% | 7.3% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.0% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 2017 | 35.7% | 10.4% | 16.8% | Road | 31.2% | 10.8% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 36.7% | 14.3% | 16.7% |
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 32.5% | 11.2% | 16.0% | 2017 | 28.9% | 8.4% | 10.6% | Road | 32.8% | 10.4% | 16.6% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 11.8% | 2.4% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 32.7% | 14.0% | 12.2% | 2017 | 31.0% | 14.1% | 9.4% | Road | 32.6% | 14.7% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 6.7% | 17.8% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.6% | 12.9% | 11.0% | 2017 | 32.1% | 16.2% | 12.1% | Road | 34.1% | 12.2% | 15.9% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 20.0% | -9.3% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Years | 31.1% | 12.8% | 14.3% | 2017 | 29.7% | 12.5% | 10.9% | Home | 29.5% | 10.8% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 16.7% | 2.5% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 34.7% | 12.3% | 16.7% | 2017 | 32.9% | 7.5% | 13.6% | Home | 36.1% | 10.9% | 16.3% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 5.9% | 3.7% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 27.8% | 17.4% | 3.6% | 2017 | 24.9% | 17.2% | -2.0% | Home | 26.2% | 10.5% | 1.6% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 35.1% | 14.3% | 17.8% | 2017 | 37.6% | 18.0% | 19.2% | Road | 36.1% | 16.8% | 16.4% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 21.4% | 13.8% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | L2 Years | 30.5% | 15.3% | 14.7% | 2017 | 30.5% | 16.7% | 14.8% | Home | 34.3% | 24.2% | 16.2% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 12.5% | 38.1% |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | L2 Years | 36.4% | 16.7% | 17.9% | 2017 | 35.9% | 16.7% | 16.7% | Road | 37.1% | 8.2% | 16.3% | L14 Days | 42.4% | 0.0% | 18.2% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 34.7% | 16.8% | 16.8% | 2017 | 34.6% | 16.0% | 17.2% | Road | 36.5% | 18.5% | 22.7% | L14 Days | 41.1% | 16.7% | 23.2% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.8% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 2017 | 27.7% | 13.4% | 7.6% | Home | 32.3% | 11.3% | 15.4% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 0.0% | 5.9% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 34.3% | 13.9% | 17.5% | 2017 | 37.8% | 16.7% | 22.5% | Road | 32.9% | 13.5% | 18.5% | L14 Days | 46.2% | 17.6% | 27.0% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 32.9% | 10.2% | 15.1% | 2017 | 32.8% | 10.6% | 14.8% | Home | 32.8% | 9.2% | 18.3% | L14 Days | 45.2% | 10.0% | 32.3% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 31.9% | 11.9% | 13.4% | 2017 | 32.7% | 9.9% | 17.5% | Home | 29.6% | 12.3% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 14.3% | 6.9% |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Years | 27.1% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 2017 | 27.1% | 11.8% | 10.2% | Home | 30.7% | 9.6% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 50.0% | -13.3% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 29.8% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 2017 | 27.6% | 10.5% | 7.0% | Home | 28.0% | 10.0% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | L2 Years | 32.3% | 11.2% | 14.2% | 2017 | 31.4% | 14.3% | 13.0% | Home | 33.0% | 17.3% | 15.0% | L14 Days | 20.7% | 20.0% | -6.9% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 31.8% | 12.6% | 12.8% | 2017 | 32.1% | 15.8% | 11.7% | Road | 32.5% | 11.8% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 35.0% | 7.1% | 22.5% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 30.6% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 2017 | 35.7% | 11.1% | 18.3% | Road | 31.3% | 12.1% | 13.8% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 23.8% | 21.2% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 30.1% | 11.9% | 13.4% | 2017 | 32.9% | 9.6% | 17.1% | Road | 31.5% | 13.8% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 35.0% | 0.0% | 30.0% |
| Parker Bridwell | Angels | L2 Years | 34.4% | 12.7% | 19.5% | 2017 | 33.6% | 11.5% | 18.5% | Home | 33.1% | 15.5% | 20.6% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 11.1% | 2.5% |
| Rafael Montero | Mets | L2 Years | 26.4% | 13.7% | 7.1% | 2017 | 25.2% | 11.9% | 5.5% | Road | 31.1% | 24.3% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 0.0% | -2.8% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 34.8% | 11.9% | 18.3% | 2017 | 40.2% | 14.6% | 23.4% | Road | 34.7% | 13.9% | 18.7% | L14 Days | 34.5% | 18.8% | 17.3% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 37.7% | 14.8% | 20.7% | 2017 | 42.2% | 14.3% | 24.5% | Home | 41.1% | 16.8% | 24.8% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 33.3% | 37.5% |
| Ryan Merritt | Indians | L2 Years | 23.3% | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2017 | 23.7% | 0.0% | 5.1% | Road | 28.6% | 0.0% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 27.0% | 11.1% | 5.6% | 2017 | 26.7% | 10.6% | 5.8% | Home | 28.7% | 12.9% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 10.0% | -3.9% |
| Travis Wood | Padres | L2 Years | 31.5% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 2017 | 29.3% | 10.4% | 9.2% | Home | 32.0% | 10.4% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 8.3% | 9.6% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 31.8% | 8.9% | 12.6% | 2017 | 32.0% | 9.2% | 13.4% | Road | 32.4% | 14.7% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 25.0% | 23.1% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 32.5% | 15.0% | 13.2% | 2017 | 36.2% | 21.0% | 18.0% | Home | 35.6% | 19.1% | 16.5% | L14 Days | 35.9% | 28.6% | 12.8% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | Home | 31.8% | 14.5% | 15.1% | LH | 30.9% | 14.2% | 11.4% | L7Days | 22.3% | 5.3% | 0.4% |
| Astros | Home | 30.6% | 15.1% | 13.0% | RH | 33.1% | 15.1% | 15.9% | L7Days | 30.8% | 11.6% | 13.9% |
| Orioles | Home | 31.8% | 17.3% | 12.2% | LH | 34.4% | 13.9% | 15.8% | L7Days | 37.2% | 21.0% | 20.3% |
| Brewers | Home | 37.5% | 19.1% | 19.0% | RH | 34.0% | 18.9% | 15.0% | L7Days | 36.4% | 14.3% | 18.2% |
| Tigers | Road | 34.5% | 12.2% | 17.1% | RH | 39.5% | 11.6% | 23.8% | L7Days | 34.5% | 14.8% | 17.5% |
| Cardinals | Road | 32.7% | 13.5% | 15.5% | RH | 31.9% | 12.9% | 13.5% | L7Days | 31.5% | 10.2% | 16.7% |
| Rangers | Road | 30.8% | 15.9% | 11.0% | LH | 30.8% | 14.7% | 10.2% | L7Days | 31.9% | 15.1% | 17.8% |
| Twins | Home | 33.8% | 13.1% | 17.2% | LH | 29.6% | 10.5% | 10.7% | L7Days | 21.8% | 15.3% | 4.5% |
| Mets | Road | 36.0% | 15.6% | 18.8% | RH | 34.7% | 13.6% | 17.1% | L7Days | 34.6% | 11.1% | 16.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 37.9% | 16.7% | 23.4% | LH | 33.1% | 15.9% | 16.1% | L7Days | 37.7% | 19.2% | 21.8% |
| Cubs | Home | 31.9% | 16.8% | 14.2% | RH | 31.4% | 15.5% | 13.5% | L7Days | 32.2% | 15.7% | 10.9% |
| Red Sox | Road | 32.2% | 12.1% | 12.1% | LH | 30.5% | 9.9% | 6.3% | L7Days | 28.9% | 11.9% | 8.3% |
| Royals | Home | 29.8% | 11.0% | 8.8% | RH | 30.8% | 12.2% | 10.9% | L7Days | 22.5% | 10.9% | -2.8% |
| Rays | Road | 32.2% | 16.3% | 12.0% | LH | 32.7% | 11.5% | 11.2% | L7Days | 37.2% | 19.7% | 18.3% |
| Braves | Road | 31.5% | 12.5% | 13.2% | RH | 30.6% | 11.3% | 12.1% | L7Days | 27.1% | 7.7% | 7.5% |
| Indians | Road | 35.0% | 12.9% | 18.7% | LH | 31.2% | 12.6% | 12.9% | L7Days | 28.9% | 23.0% | 12.9% |
| White Sox | Road | 31.1% | 13.8% | 12.9% | RH | 30.1% | 13.4% | 10.8% | L7Days | 26.9% | 11.9% | 6.7% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.4% | 11.8% | 10.4% | LH | 30.5% | 13.2% | 10.4% | L7Days | 27.3% | 10.6% | 8.5% |
| Phillies | Home | 29.6% | 15.5% | 8.7% | RH | 30.5% | 12.6% | 10.0% | L7Days | 31.8% | 15.5% | 9.5% |
| Rockies | Home | 33.5% | 16.5% | 14.7% | RH | 31.0% | 13.2% | 11.2% | L7Days | 36.0% | 16.7% | 19.9% |
| Angels | Home | 29.4% | 12.6% | 10.4% | RH | 31.3% | 13.8% | 11.7% | L7Days | 31.3% | 11.3% | 15.1% |
| Athletics | Road | 34.3% | 12.7% | 16.2% | RH | 33.5% | 14.8% | 17.5% | L7Days | 32.2% | 14.1% | 17.7% |
| Reds | Home | 28.7% | 15.8% | 7.9% | RH | 29.8% | 14.8% | 9.3% | L7Days | 30.1% | 13.7% | 10.9% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 29.8% | 14.1% | 10.6% | RH | 31.4% | 14.8% | 11.9% | L7Days | 38.6% | 13.4% | 24.3% |
| Dodgers | Road | 34.8% | 14.7% | 18.7% | LH | 35.2% | 17.1% | 18.8% | L7Days | 31.6% | 11.5% | 15.1% |
| Yankees | Home | 29.5% | 18.1% | 8.5% | LH | 29.2% | 12.1% | 8.1% | L7Days | 30.1% | 8.6% | 5.8% |
| Marlins | Road | 28.9% | 15.1% | 8.3% | RH | 31.0% | 15.6% | 10.9% | L7Days | 20.7% | 20.3% | 2.2% |
| Giants | Road | 30.9% | 10.7% | 10.3% | LH | 27.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | L7Days | 35.8% | 8.9% | 18.9% |
| Padres | Home | 29.3% | 12.3% | 7.0% | LH | 31.2% | 12.9% | 11.2% | L7Days | 31.4% | 8.0% | 3.3% |
| Mariners | Road | 31.6% | 11.1% | 13.4% | RH | 30.5% | 12.1% | 12.3% | L7Days | 31.0% | 11.5% | 13.6% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 17.2% | 9.9% | 1.74 | 16.5% | 10.1% | 1.63 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 12.0% | 5.8% | 2.07 | 11.5% | 5.1% | 2.25 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 20.3% | 10.7% | 1.90 | 22.1% | 12.1% | 1.83 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 25.3% | 10.5% | 2.41 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 2.42 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 14.1% | 9.3% | 1.52 | 14.1% | 9.3% | 1.52 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 23.3% | 10.4% | 2.24 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 2.73 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.94 | 14.1% | 11.6% | 1.22 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 16.6% | 7.0% | 2.37 | 14.5% | 5.0% | 2.90 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 15.6% | 9.9% | 1.58 | 20.9% | 9.6% | 2.18 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 22.2% | 11.4% | 1.95 | 22.8% | 10.2% | 2.24 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 15.8% | 8.3% | 1.90 | 18.5% | 9.1% | 2.03 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 22.9% | 9.7% | 2.36 | 29.5% | 11.2% | 2.63 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 19.3% | 10.9% | 1.77 | 14.3% | 8.1% | 1.77 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 18.2% | 10.0% | 1.82 | 21.6% | 11.1% | 1.95 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 20.8% | 8.8% | 2.36 | 22.3% | 9.4% | 2.37 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 22.5% | 12.7% | 1.77 | 25.3% | 9.4% | 2.69 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 22.4% | 9.1% | 2.46 | 23.2% | 7.6% | 3.05 |
| Jose Quintana | CHC | 25.4% | 8.4% | 3.02 | 23.0% | 7.6% | 3.03 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 18.4% | 9.3% | 1.98 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 2.13 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 23.6% | 10.0% | 2.36 | 29.0% | 11.4% | 2.54 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 16.3% | 6.9% | 2.36 | 16.0% | 6.0% | 2.67 |
| Parker Bridwell | ANA | 15.4% | 9.4% | 1.64 | 14.9% | 8.1% | 1.84 |
| Rafael Montero | NYM | 21.8% | 10.2% | 2.14 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 2.03 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 20.8% | 9.2% | 2.26 | 21.3% | 9.3% | 2.29 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 31.2% | 13.4% | 2.33 | 45.0% | 18.1% | 2.49 |
| Ryan Merritt | CLE | 9.0% | 6.2% | 1.45 | 8.9% | 7.6% | 1.17 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 28.6% | 12.8% | 2.23 | 34.9% | 13.8% | 2.53 |
| Travis Wood | SDG | 16.5% | 6.4% | 2.58 | 16.3% | 5.7% | 2.86 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 11.3% | 6.5% | 1.74 | 9.6% | 5.4% | 1.78 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 20.5% | 8.1% | 2.53 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 2.35 |
Jose Quintana had an 8.0 SwStr% in his last start. He’d been below 5.5% in four of his previous six starts.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 5.17 | 4.99 | -0.18 | 5.16 | -0.01 | 4.62 | -0.55 | 5.53 | 0.36 | 5.28 | 4.9 | -0.38 | 4.96 | -0.32 | 4.71 | -0.57 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 3.44 | 5.56 | 2.12 | 5.31 | 1.87 | 4.58 | 1.14 | 5.33 | 1.89 | 3.28 | 5.32 | 2.04 | 5.55 | 2.27 | 4.95 | 1.67 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 4.62 | 4.88 | 0.26 | 5.34 | 0.72 | 5.39 | 0.77 | 5.20 | 0.58 | 6.12 | 5.15 | -0.97 | 6.06 | -0.06 | 6.69 | 0.57 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 3.48 | 3.85 | 0.37 | 3.6 | 0.12 | 3.85 | 0.37 | 3.31 | -0.17 | 3.27 | 3.76 | 0.49 | 3.54 | 0.27 | 4.04 | 0.77 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 3.79 | 4.89 | 1.1 | 4.71 | 0.92 | 4.5 | 0.71 | 5.65 | 1.86 | 3.79 | 4.89 | 1.1 | 4.71 | 0.92 | 4.5 | 0.71 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 2.87 | 4.23 | 1.36 | 4.52 | 1.65 | 3.54 | 0.67 | 4.51 | 1.64 | 2.7 | 4.97 | 2.27 | 6.28 | 3.58 | 4.53 | 1.83 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 2.58 | 3.62 | 1.04 | 3.34 | 0.76 | 3.58 | 1 | 2.61 | 0.03 | 4.25 | 4.54 | 0.29 | 4.36 | 0.11 | 4.34 | 0.09 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 6.05 | 5.51 | -0.54 | 5.7 | -0.35 | 6.4 | 0.35 | 7.35 | 1.30 | 9 | 7.03 | -1.97 | 7.12 | -1.88 | 7.61 | -1.39 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 7.99 | 5.4 | -2.59 | 5.19 | -2.8 | 5.54 | -2.45 | 8.33 | 0.34 | 7.43 | 5.52 | -1.91 | 5.35 | -2.08 | 5.17 | -2.26 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 3.34 | 4.12 | 0.78 | 3.93 | 0.59 | 4.26 | 0.92 | 4.14 | 0.80 | 1.2 | 4.07 | 2.87 | 3.73 | 2.53 | 2.73 | 1.53 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 3.97 | 4.42 | 0.45 | 4.12 | 0.15 | 4.39 | 0.42 | 5.04 | 1.07 | 4.97 | 4.65 | -0.32 | 4.63 | -0.34 | 5.33 | 0.36 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 4.1 | 4.08 | -0.02 | 3.94 | -0.16 | 3.88 | -0.22 | 4.04 | -0.06 | 3.94 | 3.51 | -0.43 | 3.13 | -0.81 | 1.68 | -2.26 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 4.82 | 5.13 | 0.31 | 5.41 | 0.59 | 5.95 | 1.13 | 5.56 | 0.74 | 6.75 | 7.2 | 0.45 | 7.89 | 1.14 | 7.17 | 0.42 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 3.72 | 4.74 | 1.02 | 4.81 | 1.09 | 4.29 | 0.57 | 4.04 | 0.32 | 7.11 | 4.56 | -2.55 | 4.37 | -2.74 | 5.38 | -1.73 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 4.36 | 4.66 | 0.3 | 4.79 | 0.43 | 4.17 | -0.19 | 5.80 | 1.44 | 3.62 | 4.63 | 1.01 | 4.75 | 1.13 | 4.01 | 0.39 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 4 | 4.27 | 0.27 | 4.4 | 0.4 | 4.09 | 0.09 | 4.66 | 0.66 | 4.5 | 4.08 | -0.42 | 3.58 | -0.92 | 4.35 | -0.15 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 4.04 | 4.24 | 0.2 | 4.47 | 0.43 | 3.99 | -0.05 | 3.40 | -0.64 | 4.88 | 4.3 | -0.58 | 4.52 | -0.36 | 4.32 | -0.56 |
| Jose Quintana | CHC | 4.49 | 4.04 | -0.45 | 3.97 | -0.52 | 4.03 | -0.46 | 4.42 | -0.07 | 6 | 4.25 | -1.75 | 4.18 | -1.82 | 5.13 | -0.87 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 4.9 | 4.87 | -0.03 | 4.95 | 0.05 | 5.27 | 0.37 | 4.12 | -0.78 | 4.15 | 4.18 | 0.03 | 4.16 | 0.01 | 3.49 | -0.66 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 3.9 | 4.39 | 0.49 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 4.09 | 0.19 | 3.79 | -0.11 | 2.14 | 3.43 | 1.29 | 3.7 | 1.56 | 3.77 | 1.63 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 4.24 | 4.64 | 0.4 | 4.41 | 0.17 | 3.87 | -0.37 | 3.84 | -0.40 | 4.94 | 4.6 | -0.34 | 4.23 | -0.71 | 2.87 | -2.07 |
| Parker Bridwell | ANA | 2.89 | 4.87 | 1.98 | 4.83 | 1.94 | 4.46 | 1.57 | 4.84 | 1.95 | 3 | 4.88 | 1.88 | 4.82 | 1.82 | 3.73 | 0.73 |
| Rafael Montero | NYM | 5.64 | 4.61 | -1.03 | 4.62 | -1.02 | 4.37 | -1.27 | 5.30 | -0.34 | 5.47 | 4.38 | -1.09 | 4.17 | -1.3 | 4.65 | -0.82 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 4.57 | 4.16 | -0.41 | 4.29 | -0.28 | 4.43 | -0.14 | 4.95 | 0.38 | 4.66 | 4.34 | -0.32 | 4.16 | -0.5 | 4.99 | 0.33 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 3.06 | 3.81 | 0.75 | 3.82 | 0.76 | 3.88 | 0.82 | 4.07 | 1.01 | 1.8 | 2.34 | 0.54 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 3.93 | 2.13 |
| Ryan Merritt | CLE | 1.76 | 4.46 | 2.7 | 3.91 | 2.15 | 2.74 | 0.98 | 7.77 | 6.01 | 0.87 | 4.87 | 4 | 4.32 | 3.45 | 2.93 | 2.06 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 3.1 | 3.48 | 0.38 | 3.43 | 0.33 | 3.04 | -0.06 | 3.08 | -0.02 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 2.62 | 1.12 | 2.21 | 0.71 |
| Travis Wood | SDG | 6.03 | 5.18 | -0.85 | 5.58 | -0.45 | 4.95 | -1.08 | 7.55 | 1.52 | 5.33 | 5.58 | 0.25 | 5.91 | 0.58 | 5.87 | 0.54 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 4.68 | 5.17 | 0.49 | 4.8 | 0.12 | 4.16 | -0.52 | 6.05 | 1.37 | 5.74 | 5.5 | -0.24 | 5.22 | -0.52 | 5.23 | -0.51 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 6.57 | 4.6 | -1.97 | 4.62 | -1.95 | 5.64 | -0.93 | 7.21 | 0.64 | 5.27 | 4 | -1.27 | 4.07 | -1.2 | 4.96 | -0.31 |
Dallas Keuchel has a .250 BABIP that it’s difficult to argue against pre-injury, considering how many weak ground balls he was inducing. Post-injury has been a bit of a different story and the BABIP has risen to .292 over his last six starts. The strand rate has been 73.3% since his return, but still above 80% for the season.
Robbie Ray has a .268 BABIP with a lot of hard contact that isn’t manifesting itself in his line drive rate or home run rate (14.3 HR/FB). His 84.5 LOB% is well above the acceptable range, even for a 30% strikeout rate.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 0.293 | 0.293 | 0 | 41.3% | 0.188 | 16.7% | 85.6% | 86 | 7.20% | 35.70% | 249 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 0.289 | 0.274 | -0.015 | 49.1% | 0.185 | 8.4% | 92.8% | 86.2 | 3.40% | 31.80% | 409 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 0.279 | 0.230 | -0.049 | 31.6% | 0.158 | 15.0% | 83.5% | 87.1 | 9.40% | 33.80% | 426 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.294 | 0.279 | -0.015 | 51.7% | 0.18 | 8.1% | 86.5% | 86.3 | 5.10% | 32.70% | 455 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 0.302 | 0.279 | -0.023 | 40.7% | 0.186 | 4.2% | 91.1% | 82.3 | 6.30% | 32.80% | 64 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 0.300 | 0.272 | -0.028 | 37.7% | 0.17 | 10.8% | 83.9% | 84.2 | 4.00% | 25.50% | 274 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.295 | 0.250 | -0.045 | 65.9% | 0.147 | 3.4% | 86.2% | 84.1 | 5.20% | 30.80% | 305 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 0.288 | 0.301 | 0.013 | 38.8% | 0.21 | 9.0% | 89.0% | 88.1 | 8.40% | 39.50% | 418 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 0.293 | 0.378 | 0.085 | 43.8% | 0.281 | 5.6% | 87.4% | 86.3 | 5.60% | 34.50% | 197 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 0.280 | 0.301 | 0.021 | 46.9% | 0.218 | 9.4% | 83.5% | 86.7 | 6.10% | 31.10% | 312 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 0.308 | 0.296 | -0.012 | 46.4% | 0.242 | 9.0% | 91.6% | 88.2 | 6.20% | 35.60% | 548 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 0.307 | 0.309 | 0.002 | 44.9% | 0.206 | 7.1% | 84.0% | 85.3 | 4.90% | 29.50% | 329 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.284 | 0.242 | -0.042 | 29.4% | 0.226 | 9.3% | 82.5% | 87.1 | 8.20% | 34.90% | 341 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 0.299 | 0.294 | -0.005 | 39.0% | 0.206 | 10.0% | 83.1% | 87 | 5.10% | 31.50% | 451 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.297 | 0.324 | 0.027 | 38.6% | 0.215 | 7.9% | 87.5% | 88.1 | 5.90% | 34.70% | 389 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 0.290 | 0.276 | -0.014 | 40.8% | 0.174 | 6.6% | 84.9% | 86.6 | 6.80% | 30.90% | 366 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 0.298 | 0.272 | -0.026 | 39.2% | 0.209 | 10.5% | 86.3% | 85 | 5.10% | 28.30% | 315 |
| Jose Quintana | CHC | 0.283 | 0.300 | 0.017 | 44.1% | 0.199 | 10.9% | 88.0% | 87.2 | 6.00% | 36.00% | 414 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.292 | 0.276 | -0.016 | 38.9% | 0.213 | 6.6% | 86.6% | 86.1 | 6.80% | 31.00% | 471 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.309 | 0.285 | -0.024 | 33.0% | 0.246 | 10.6% | 85.8% | 87.4 | 7.60% | 35.20% | 471 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 0.292 | 0.330 | 0.038 | 47.9% | 0.214 | 6.8% | 90.9% | 89.2 | 6.70% | 41.30% | 240 |
| Parker Bridwell | ANA | 0.285 | 0.265 | -0.02 | 38.5% | 0.218 | 12.5% | 88.3% | 88.6 | 4.90% | 38.50% | 265 |
| Rafael Montero | NYM | 0.320 | 0.381 | 0.061 | 46.1% | 0.196 | 11.9% | 83.4% | 83.6 | 4.80% | 27.10% | 251 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.305 | 0.326 | 0.021 | 39.6% | 0.211 | 10.4% | 87.0% | 87.9 | 7.90% | 35.20% | 543 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.294 | 0.268 | -0.026 | 38.5% | 0.194 | 9.2% | 80.9% | 89 | 6.90% | 43.60% | 289 |
| Ryan Merritt | CLE | 0.303 | 0.356 | 0.053 | 52.5% | 0.305 | 10.0% | 90.7% | 83.5 | 0.00% | 28.80% | 59 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 0.293 | 0.280 | -0.013 | 44.9% | 0.191 | 10.6% | 83.9% | 87.5 | 7.50% | 31.90% | 345 |
| Travis Wood | SDG | 0.307 | 0.328 | 0.021 | 35.5% | 0.212 | 9.4% | 89.3% | 87.7 | 6.00% | 35.30% | 249 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 0.317 | 0.299 | -0.018 | 46.9% | 0.218 | 7.2% | 89.7% | 85.6 | 4.00% | 32.60% | 506 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.315 | 0.317 | 0.002 | 44.4% | 0.203 | 8.0% | 88.3% | 88.5 | 8.10% | 40.30% | 395 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Dallas Keuchel (1) is halfway there. He’s generating swings and misses and massive amounts of ground balls, but not strikeout and weak contact as often. He’s in a great spot on a weak board tonight.
Value Tier Two
Jose Quintana is here because he’s in a very good spot on a weak board. I’m not excited about it and still don’t buy into his strikeout rate, but even guys who can carry a league average strikeout rate have value on tonight’s board.
J.A. Happ is likely to lose something off his new found strikeout spike against a tough Boston offense (at least in terms of strikeout rate), but he costs less than $8K and the contact suppression should continue.
Value Tier Three
Robbie Ray merits inclusion based solely on a strikeout rate so much higher than anyone else on the slate. The issues here are basically everything else.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Rick Porcello misses the cut on most slates. Let’s first be clear about that. For tonight though, we’ll consider that he can miss bats at a league average rate and is not in a bad spot. Toronto will come at him mostly right-handed and he’s at least slightly better against batters from that side.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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