Advanced Stats - Pitching: Wednesday, June 7th

by Matt Trollo (MTro86) Last Updated 2017-06-08 02:10:36

A three game day slate has a game at Coors and Strasburg vs Kershaw included. While that’s going to be interesting and we hate losing those things on the main slate, we should still have enough to get by. Just for comparison’s sake though, and to reiterate how strong yesterday’s board was, only tonight’s top two pitchers would have even been considered last night.

As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.

Legend

Starting Pitching Main Chart

Pitcher	Team	Team Def	SIERA L2Yrs	IP/GS L2Yrs	GB% L2Yrs	Park Run	Hm/Rd xFIP	SIERA L14	Opp	Opp Hm/Rd	Opp L/R wRC+	Opp L7 wRC+
Adalberto Mejia	MIN	9.1	5.02	4.52	44.0%	0.89	5.75	3.81	SEA	118	89	149
Alex Meyer	ANA	-5.6	4.88	4.43	40.6%	0.98	5.43	4.78	DET	126	101	184
Bronson Arroyo	CIN	13.6	5.3	5.2	30.3%	1.02	5	5.81	STL	88	95	63
CC Sabathia	NYY	1.3	4.35	5.83	48.2%	1.01	4.03	2.89	BOS	106	105	68
Chad Kuhl	PIT	-7.4	4.64	4.8	42.0%	1.02	4.02	4.96	BAL	90	94	119
Clayton Kershaw	LOS	1	2.36	7.13	49.2%	0.89	2.34	2.11	WAS	105	113	114
Dallas Keuchel	HOU	1.6	3.22	6.69	59.8%	1.06	3.53	2.55	KAN	83	68	104
Francisco Liriano	TOR	-2	4.16	5.51	51.3%	0.93	4.79	4.22	OAK	118	86	98
Jason Vargas	KAN	8	4.24	5.51	37.9%	1.06	4.15	5.35	HOU	128	113	163
Jerad Eickhoff	PHI	4	4.08	5.92	40.0%	1	4.31	5.79	ATL	97	93	95
Jharel Cotton	OAK	-14.3	4.49	5.59	38.2%	0.93	4.88	5.53	TOR	89	96	83
Jimmy Nelson	MIL	-4	4.45	5.7	49.5%	1.02	4.24	2.13	SFO	77	77	97
John Lackey	CHC	2.3	3.83	6.45	43.8%	0.96	4.01	4.65	MIA	95	92	93
Jose Urena	MIA	4.7	5.04	5.24	45.7%	0.96	5	5.62	CHC	105	88	92
Kyle Freeland	COL	0.7	4.98	5.75	57.4%	1.39	4.02	5.28	CLE	92	89	76
Lance Lynn	STL	-11.6	4.27	5.49	45.8%	1.02	4.34	3.9	CIN	107	105	112
Luis Perdomo	SDG	-7.9	3.88	5.76	60.6%	1.13	3.63	4.3	ARI	118	103	66
Michael Fulmer	DET	2.6	4.02	6.32	49.0%	0.98	4.11	4.28	ANA	78	91	111
Mike Foltynewicz	ATL	2.6	4.24	5.53	39.7%	1	4.56	3.03	PHI	78	90	116
Mike Pelfrey	CHW	0.4	4.93	5.16	49.9%	0.96	5.28	3.04	TAM	107	113	77
Rick Porcello	BOS	5.1	3.71	6.44	43.2%	1.01	3.86	4.28	NYY	121	118	109
Stephen Strasburg	WAS	-1.9	2.95	6.33	42.1%	0.89	3.25	2.29	LOS	117	103	40
Trevor Bauer	CLE	-5.5	4.12	5.81	45.6%	1.39	4.02	2.63	COL	79	84	96
Ty Blach	SFO	-0.2	4.9	6.32	52.1%	1.02	4.87	3.84	MIL	96	97	84
Wade Miley	BAL	-3.5	4.19	5.78	0.494	1.02	3.97	4.34	PIT	89	82	116
Yovani Gallardo	SEA	6.7	5.09	5.29	0.457	0.89	5.21	6.55	MIN	102	107	114
Yu Darvish	TEX	1.3	3.46	6.03	0.39	1.11	3.49	4.23	NYM	124	105	120
Zack Greinke	ARI	-4.9	3.51	6.56	0.468	1.13	3.87	3.42	SDG	77	81	73
Zack Wheeler	NYM	1.1	4.25	5.52	0.494	1.11	3.83	3.74	TEX	99	96	81
Jacob Faria	TAM	0.8	0		0	0.96			CHW	90	81	87

NOTE: The Tigers had mentioned that Michael Fulmer would either pitch today or tomorrow, but left everyone to guess for themselves last night. They didn’t make a decision, I did. I was wrong. Thankfully, Buck Farmer is nearly the same pitcher…or at least he’s right-handed, keeping the opposing offensive stats relevant.

Dallas Keuchel has not gone more than six innings in a start in over a month now, but has only missed that mark once this year, allowing more than two ERs just once. He has a 24.4 K%, 67.4 GB% and -9.8 Hard-Soft% with 69.6% of the batters he has faced this year either striking out or hitting it on the ground. His 83.6 mph aEV is the lowest mark on the board by far and he faces the second worst offense in baseball against LHP. The Royals have an 8.9 HR/FB at home and 9.0 HR/FB vs LHP.

Jimmy Nelson has struck out 21 of his last 55 batters, allowing a single run over 15 innings without a walk. Not only that, but his 58.8 GB% (good) and 35.3 Hard% (meh) were identical in both games. For the season, he now has an 18.3 K-BB% and the third lowest rate of Barrels/BBE (3.8%) on the board. While the DFS community has been disappointed by false starts before, the last two starts have been so dominant against good offenses (Dodgers, Diamondbacks) that we need to take notice. His F-Strike% is through the roof over his last two starts, which is what you’d expect to see with those numbers. His SwStr% has now been in double digits in four straight starts. It’s been more curveballs and fewer four seam fastballs. Has that made the difference? Who knows because they both have the same whiff rate, but the whiff rate on both has risen, so perhaps he’s sequencing and locating better, allowing one to play better off the other. The Giants don’t strike out a lot, but have little power, though it probably increases with the park upgrade. It’s still a favorable matchup as few of those hitters have done anything this year.

Luis Perdomo is a (very) poor man’s version of Keuchel with 66.5% of batters faced either striking out or pounding it into the ground, though he doesn’t generate contact as weakly (9.9 Hard-Soft%) because nobody has done so. He has a much higher BABIP because…I have no idea why it’s so high. Arizona at home is a tough assignment, but they have a 23.2 K% vs RHP.

Buck Farmer struck out 11 of 23 White Sox in his lone major league start this year and has a 17.3 K-BB% in AAA this year. The offense for the Angels has actually improved since getting rid of the dead weight and all his WAR and getting Yuni Escobar back into the lineup. On a more serious note, it may have actually decreased their strikeout rate, but makes it a much easier lineup to navigate.

Zack Greinke just keeps on keeping on with eight or more strikeouts in six of his last eight starts and a 34.4 K% with a 17 SwStr% over the last month. The 36.6 Hard% is a bit concerning in that park, but the Padres (25.8 K% vs RHP) are not. Statcast has less than 30% of contact at a 95 mph exit velocity or higher as well.

NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)

This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.

League AVG (.293 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 14.1 HR/FB)

Yu Darvish (.259 – 84.6% – 13.9) has a 15.9 K-BB% that’s nearly five points below his career average. I’m sure this omission will be just about as controversial as my take that Fear the Walking Dead was better than Better Call Saul this week, but the value beyond his price tag just doesn’t seem as substantial this year. Add in the Mets, whose offense is not the problem here (9.6 K-BB% vs RHP, 17.2 HR/FB on the road) and I’d argue may be the second worst matchup on the slate in this park and there seems enough reason to be at least skeptical. That’s not to say he can’t exceed and the Mets actually have a major league worst 72 sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers, but I’d prefer the other two expensive pitchers over this higher risk, lower than his past standard upside spot. I’d still call him the third best overall arm on the slate.

Wade Miley (.286 – 84.4% – 17.1) finds himself in a decent enough spot even at home against the Pirates, but they will take walks and his 2.3 K-BB% over the last month just about nullifies the 60.4 GB% I barely even noticed.

Lance Lynn (.204 – 83.3% – 16.9) may not be terribly bad off facing a predominantly RH lineup in Cincinnati, but struggles greatly on the road (11.4 HR/FB career is double his home rate) and against LHBs (.343 wOBA career) and can absolutely not be expected to contain Scooter Gennett.

Mike Pelfrey (.228 – 68.3% – 11.9) actually hasn’t been as bad as expected this year, but don’t buy into that BABIP or his K% over the last month. He moves up a few spots because the Rays strike out so much, but it’s not to be mistaken for a quality matchup. They also have a lot of power.

Jason Vargas (.278 – 85.7% – 5.8) has seen his strikeout rate drop below average, but still retains the highest SwStr% of his career, even over the last month as it has remained average. That said, he’s not retaining those strand and HR rates and he’s also facing the ’27 Yankees tonight.

Ty Blach (.250 – 71.2% – 7.1) has just a 4.3 K-BB%.

Adalberto Mejia (.297 – 82.9% – 17.2)

Jose Urena (.264 – 81.3% – 12.7) has just a 4.9 K-BB%.

NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)

Jacob Faria is certainly worth talking about with a 34.7 K% at AAA this year, but is not available on either site. He does have a bit of a fly ball lean (41.5 GB%), but you’re not using White Sox bats.

Rick Porcello has the same K-BB% as last year with a 2.6 point improvement in his SwStr% that more strongly backs up his above average strikeout rate this year. His 42.7% rate of hard contact has been a disaster though and not something we’d look to see resolved in Yankee Stadium of all places (19.7 HR/FB at home, 17.4 HR/FB vs RHP). That said, the Yankees are not beyond swings and misses and he has gone at least six innings in 11 of his 12 starts with more than one HR just twice with half of his season total coming in those two starts.

John Lackey has peripherals better than his ERA. He’s allowed a lot of hard contact (36.3 Hard%), which has led to 14 HRs, but his Statcast numbers don’t look that bad. In a decent matchup against the Marlins, he’s probably useable with pitcher friendly weather conditions if Kevin says that’s the case.

Mike Foltynewicz struck out a season high 10 in his last start in Cincinnati and could be okay against the Phillies here, but he has not exceeded an 8.3 SwStr% in four starts and has more than four strikeouts just four times this year in 10 starts, while LHBs continue to pummel him (.355 wOBA this year). That’s actually not terrible news as he has a 16.4 K-BB% and -1.0 Hard% vs RHBs this year and that’s where most of Philadelphia’s power comes from.

Zack Wheeler has been the Mets second best pitcher and generally keeps the ball on the ground, which should help him in this park, but has walked at least four three times this year and that might make him too big a risk here, though he has walked two or fewer in three of his last four.

C.C. Sabathia has an 81.8% strand rate over the last month with just an 8.1 SwStr% and a hard hit rate above 35% in four of his five starts. The ERA decrease is a bit of a fluke, while the Red Sox have just a 14.2 K% vs LHP.

Chad Kuhl retains a high SwStr%, but has been at 9% or below in three of his last four starts. His 38.9 GB% is more of a concern in Baltimore.

Jerad Eickhoff

Alex Meyer has a .245 BABIP and 80.7% strand rate with just an average SwStr% and 14.3 BB%. Detroit is the hottest offense in the majors.

Yovani Gallardo

Bronson Arroyo has already allowed 19 HRs. The Cardinals have been shut down by two below average extreme fly ball pitchers each of the last two nights in Cincinnati. Let’s see if they can make it a third. At the least, it may drop ownership on this offense.

K/BB Chart

Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.

Pitcher	Team	Split	K%	BB%	Split	K%	BB%	Split	K%	BB%
Adalberto Mejia	Twins	L2 Years	18.3%	11.5%	Road	10.9%	10.9%	L14 Days	24.4%	8.9%
Alex Meyer	Angels	L2 Years	24.3%	15.2%	Road	25.8%	18.3%	L14 Days	16.7%	8.3%
Bronson Arroyo	Reds	L2 Years	14.2%	6.7%	Home	16.2%	4.2%	L14 Days	13.3%	4.4%
CC Sabathia	Yankees	L2 Years	19.3%	8.4%	Home	21.2%	7.6%	L14 Days	32.0%	6.0%
Chad Kuhl	Pirates	L2 Years	17.8%	7.7%	Road	20.4%	3.7%	L14 Days	16.7%	7.1%
Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	L2 Years	32.6%	3.2%	Home	31.2%	1.9%	L14 Days	37.0%	3.7%
Dallas Keuchel	Astros	L2 Years	23.2%	6.1%	Road	21.2%	7.8%	L14 Days	33.3%	8.9%
Francisco Liriano	Blue Jays	L2 Years	23.5%	11.1%	Road	21.0%	13.6%	L14 Days	23.8%	9.5%
Jason Vargas	Royals	L2 Years	19.8%	5.7%	Home	20.5%	6.0%	L14 Days	8.6%	5.2%
Jerad Eickhoff	Phillies	L2 Years	20.9%	6.1%	Road	19.2%	5.6%	L14 Days	13.3%	13.3%
Jharel Cotton	Athletics	L2 Years	20.3%	8.2%	Home	18.5%	6.8%	L14 Days	19.2%	14.9%
Jimmy Nelson	Brewers	L2 Years	18.9%	9.2%	Home	20.5%	9.1%	L14 Days	30.8%	1.3%
John Lackey	Cubs	L2 Years	22.6%	6.7%	Home	22.8%	6.9%	L14 Days	21.6%	11.8%
Jose Urena	Marlins	L2 Years	13.5%	8.6%	Road	14.6%	6.7%	L14 Days	16.2%	13.2%
Kyle Freeland	Rockies	L2 Years	14.2%	10.2%	Home	16.4%	9.4%	L14 Days	13.2%	7.6%
Lance Lynn	Cardinals	L2 Years	21.3%	9.7%	Road	25.2%	11.7%	L14 Days	26.8%	9.9%
Luis Perdomo	Padres	L2 Years	17.2%	6.9%	Road	18.9%	7.0%	L14 Days	18.5%	7.4%
Michael Fulmer	Tigers	L2 Years	20.0%	6.1%	Home	19.4%	5.3%	L14 Days	14.8%	3.3%
Mike Foltynewicz	Braves	L2 Years	19.8%	6.7%	Home	19.8%	8.6%	L14 Days	31.1%	6.7%
Mike Pelfrey	White Sox	L2 Years	11.7%	7.3%	Road	9.4%	11.7%	L14 Days	29.3%	7.3%
Rick Porcello	Red Sox	L2 Years	21.4%	4.0%	Road	21.4%	4.1%	L14 Days	17.7%	2.4%
Stephen Strasburg	Nationals	L2 Years	31.1%	6.4%	Road	29.1%	8.8%	L14 Days	40.0%	7.3%
Trevor Bauer	Indians	L2 Years	22.5%	9.2%	Road	22.0%	8.9%	L14 Days	34.5%	6.9%
Ty Blach	Giants	L2 Years	11.2%	6.1%	Road	9.2%	6.1%	L14 Days	14.5%	4.8%
Wade Miley	Orioles	L2 Years	19.4%	8.1%	Home	21.4%	8.1%	L14 Days	9.8%	7.8%
Yovani Gallardo	Mariners	L2 Years	15.5%	10.6%	Home	15.9%	11.3%	L14 Days	15.6%	20.0%
Yu Darvish	Rangers	L2 Years	29.2%	8.6%	Home	28.8%	8.0%	L14 Days	22.6%	7.6%
Zack Greinke	Diamondbacks	L2 Years	23.8%	5.3%	Home	22.5%	6.4%	L14 Days	28.6%	8.2%
Zack Wheeler	Mets	L2 Years	21.6%	9.8%	Road	20.2%	8.5%	L14 Days	21.2%	5.8%
Jacob Faria	Rays	L2 Years	0.0%	0.0%	Home			L14 Days

K/BB Chart – Opponent

Opponent	Split	K%	BB%	Split	K%	BB%	Split	K%	BB%
Mariners	Home	19.4%	10.1%	LH	19.2%	10.2%	L7Days	19.7%	8.6%
Tigers	Home	18.9%	10.0%	RH	22.7%	10.2%	L7Days	11.3%	8.3%
Cardinals	Road	20.8%	8.5%	RH	21.0%	8.7%	L7Days	25.1%	9.8%
Red Sox	Road	18.6%	9.1%	LH	14.2%	9.9%	L7Days	20.4%	6.9%
Orioles	Home	21.4%	7.3%	RH	22.4%	6.6%	L7Days	22.6%	3.2%
Nationals	Road	19.8%	8.8%	LH	21.2%	7.9%	L7Days	15.6%	8.2%
Royals	Home	19.2%	6.9%	LH	18.7%	7.5%	L7Days	18.9%	4.0%
Athletics	Home	23.3%	8.6%	LH	25.5%	7.5%	L7Days	25.4%	7.8%
Astros	Road	18.0%	9.1%	LH	17.4%	9.9%	L7Days	14.7%	8.9%
Braves	Home	20.0%	8.3%	RH	19.6%	7.9%	L7Days	13.5%	6.1%
Blue Jays	Road	21.6%	8.1%	RH	19.9%	7.5%	L7Days	23.4%	7.8%
Giants	Road	19.7%	8.6%	RH	19.3%	7.7%	L7Days	17.6%	10.9%
Marlins	Road	20.9%	6.2%	RH	20.5%	7.2%	L7Days	22.7%	8.6%
Cubs	Home	20.9%	10.1%	RH	21.9%	9.0%	L7Days	18.8%	9.7%
Indians	Road	19.5%	9.1%	LH	17.6%	10.1%	L7Days	18.1%	7.6%
Reds	Home	21.6%	8.9%	RH	21.0%	8.7%	L7Days	25.5%	11.5%
Diamondbacks	Home	21.5%	8.5%	RH	23.2%	8.9%	L7Days	27.2%	9.6%
Angels	Road	21.7%	9.8%	RH	19.8%	8.8%	L7Days	15.6%	9.0%
Phillies	Road	23.7%	7.2%	RH	23.1%	8.0%	L7Days	22.0%	4.6%
Rays	Home	25.2%	10.1%	RH	25.8%	9.4%	L7Days	23.2%	8.9%
Yankees	Home	24.5%	10.9%	RH	22.7%	9.3%	L7Days	25.5%	7.7%
Dodgers	Home	23.0%	9.7%	RH	23.7%	10.2%	L7Days	30.5%	9.5%
Rockies	Home	21.2%	7.1%	RH	22.1%	7.8%	L7Days	24.5%	9.3%
Brewers	Home	27.1%	9.0%	LH	26.9%	9.3%	L7Days	33.5%	9.9%
Pirates	Road	19.5%	8.9%	LH	21.8%	10.6%	L7Days	21.0%	8.3%
Twins	Road	21.4%	9.0%	RH	22.6%	10.2%	L7Days	25.2%	7.6%
Mets	Road	18.9%	8.8%	RH	19.0%	9.4%	L7Days	17.9%	10.3%
Padres	Road	26.6%	7.2%	RH	25.8%	7.2%	L7Days	32.5%	4.8%
Rangers	Home	22.8%	9.3%	RH	23.2%	8.8%	L7Days	30.3%	7.7%
White Sox	Road	21.8%	6.0%	RH	23.6%	6.0%	L7Days	26.6%	4.9%

Batted Ball Chart

Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.

Pitcher	Team	Split	Hard%	HR/FB%	Hd-St%	Split	Hard%	HR/FB%	Hd-St%	Split	Hard%	HR/FB%	Hd-St%	Split	Hard%	HR/FB%	Hd-St%
Adalberto Mejia	Twins	L2 Years	31.9%	14.7%	13.2%	2017	30.4%	17.2%	10.1%	Road	37.1%	9.1%	20.0%	L14 Days	33.3%	12.5%	23.3%
Alex Meyer	Angels	L2 Years	33.8%	12.1%	17.9%	2017	28.6%	10.7%	13.0%	Road	36.9%	10.7%	23.0%	L14 Days	22.2%	14.3%	11.1%
Bronson Arroyo	Reds	L2 Years	35.2%	20.0%	18.1%	2017	35.2%	20.0%	18.1%	Home	39.3%	19.2%	25.0%	L14 Days	24.3%	20.0%	0.0%
CC Sabathia	Yankees	L2 Years	27.7%	14.6%	6.2%	2017	34.7%	15.0%	14.5%	Home	27.7%	16.8%	5.5%	L14 Days	41.9%	14.3%	32.2%
Chad Kuhl	Pirates	L2 Years	33.1%	8.5%	14.6%	2017	33.1%	7.9%	16.2%	Road	31.7%	5.1%	9.9%	L14 Days	37.5%	12.5%	12.5%
Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	L2 Years	26.6%	9.5%	4.9%	2017	30.6%	15.7%	5.1%	Home	29.7%	8.1%	8.8%	L14 Days	33.3%	30.8%	8.3%
Dallas Keuchel	Astros	L2 Years	25.7%	16.3%	1.7%	2017	20.1%	17.1%	-9.8%	Road	27.9%	20.7%	5.3%	L14 Days	15.4%	0.0%	-7.7%
Francisco Liriano	Blue Jays	L2 Years	31.1%	15.2%	10.6%	2017	33.7%	12.9%	25.5%	Road	33.3%	26.0%	13.9%	L14 Days	64.3%	14.3%	64.3%
Jason Vargas	Royals	L2 Years	31.0%	5.5%	12.0%	2017	30.5%	5.8%	11.8%	Home	33.3%	1.9%	15.5%	L14 Days	32.0%	6.3%	16.0%
Jerad Eickhoff	Phillies	L2 Years	31.6%	11.7%	12.8%	2017	30.8%	9.5%	16.9%	Road	32.1%	10.1%	14.6%	L14 Days	40.6%	12.5%	28.1%
Jharel Cotton	Athletics	L2 Years	32.3%	10.5%	10.3%	2017	34.7%	10.9%	12.9%	Home	30.8%	12.5%	9.1%	L14 Days	40.0%	7.1%	10.0%
Jimmy Nelson	Brewers	L2 Years	32.0%	12.6%	11.8%	2017	34.1%	10.3%	14.6%	Home	33.2%	13.7%	11.3%	L14 Days	34.0%	9.1%	9.5%
John Lackey	Cubs	L2 Years	32.4%	14.0%	15.7%	2017	36.3%	20.6%	21.8%	Home	33.3%	14.8%	15.5%	L14 Days	44.1%	18.2%	32.3%
Jose Urena	Marlins	L2 Years	30.3%	11.0%	10.6%	2017	31.4%	12.7%	10.2%	Road	30.6%	12.1%	11.5%	L14 Days	29.8%	27.8%	4.3%
Kyle Freeland	Rockies	L2 Years	33.8%	11.5%	12.9%	2017	33.8%	11.5%	12.9%	Home	31.6%	10.0%	4.2%	L14 Days	38.5%	13.3%	25.7%
Lance Lynn	Cardinals	L2 Years	28.9%	11.4%	10.8%	2017	29.5%	16.9%	12.2%	Road	31.7%	20.0%	16.8%	L14 Days	22.2%	15.8%	4.4%
Luis Perdomo	Padres	L2 Years	32.6%	20.4%	15.6%	2017	27.8%	16.1%	9.9%	Road	32.5%	22.7%	17.3%	L14 Days	26.3%	15.4%	-2.7%
Michael Fulmer	Tigers	L2 Years	28.7%	9.4%	10.3%	2017	25.1%	5.8%	8.4%	Home	32.0%	9.0%	14.9%	L14 Days	24.0%	0.0%	8.0%
Mike Foltynewicz	Braves	L2 Years	30.5%	15.1%	11.2%	2017	27.4%	16.1%	9.5%	Home	30.0%	9.8%	11.9%	L14 Days	21.4%	22.2%	0.0%
Mike Pelfrey	White Sox	L2 Years	30.2%	11.1%	9.7%	2017	28.9%	11.9%	3.1%	Road	27.8%	6.2%	5.4%	L14 Days	30.8%	14.3%	3.9%
Rick Porcello	Red Sox	L2 Years	33.5%	11.3%	16.5%	2017	42.7%	12.4%	24.9%	Road	31.9%	12.0%	15.8%	L14 Days	37.3%	7.1%	13.4%
Stephen Strasburg	Nationals	L2 Years	27.1%	10.3%	5.1%	2017	28.1%	7.6%	6.7%	Road	24.0%	5.9%	0.0%	L14 Days	20.7%	8.3%	3.5%
Trevor Bauer	Indians	L2 Years	33.1%	14.1%	15.1%	2017	39.9%	20.4%	26.6%	Road	32.9%	9.3%	12.8%	L14 Days	47.1%	10.0%	38.3%
Ty Blach	Giants	L2 Years	28.8%	7.0%	9.5%	2017	28.6%	7.1%	10.7%	Road	30.0%	12.9%	10.9%	L14 Days	22.0%	0.0%	6.0%
Wade Miley	Orioles	L2 Years	30.6%	14.6%	11.9%	2017	35.4%	17.1%	13.1%	Home	31.0%	17.0%	10.5%	L14 Days	38.1%	14.3%	7.1%
Yovani Gallardo	Mariners	L2 Years	27.6%	11.1%	11.2%	2017	33.0%	16.7%	15.7%	Home	29.1%	14.6%	11.2%	L14 Days	37.9%	28.6%	20.7%
Yu Darvish	Rangers	L2 Years	31.2%	12.8%	11.2%	2017	32.8%	13.9%	16.4%	Home	34.6%	13.6%	16.5%	L14 Days	41.2%	11.8%	23.5%
Zack Greinke	Diamondbacks	L2 Years	29.9%	11.8%	9.0%	2017	36.6%	14.7%	16.3%	Home	37.2%	13.3%	18.3%	L14 Days	32.3%	9.1%	12.9%
Zack Wheeler	Mets	L2 Years	36.9%	14.0%	18.1%	2017	36.9%	14.0%	18.1%	Road	35.8%	11.1%	20.9%	L14 Days	44.7%	11.1%	31.5%
Jacob Faria	Rays	L2 Years	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2017				Home				L14 Days

Batted Ball Charts – Opponent

Opponent	Split	Hard%	HR/FB%	Hd-St%	Split	Hard%	HR/FB%	Hd-St%	Split	Hard%	HR/FB%	Hd-St%
Mariners	Home	29.8%	11.5%	9.9%	LH	30.2%	7.2%	8.1%	L7Days	33.7%	14.8%	17.1%
Tigers	Home	50.4%	14.3%	37.3%	RH	42.6%	12.6%	27.9%	L7Days	54.7%	21.8%	44.8%
Cardinals	Road	32.6%	11.2%	16.0%	RH	30.6%	12.0%	11.5%	L7Days	32.0%	11.8%	12.4%
Red Sox	Road	32.9%	13.2%	12.8%	LH	32.7%	12.8%	8.0%	L7Days	26.8%	14.3%	-1.2%
Orioles	Home	28.0%	13.9%	6.9%	RH	30.1%	14.7%	9.6%	L7Days	34.8%	20.0%	13.7%
Nationals	Road	29.7%	14.2%	10.7%	LH	31.5%	16.7%	10.5%	L7Days	27.7%	16.4%	7.6%
Royals	Home	31.4%	8.9%	12.2%	LH	29.8%	9.0%	10.4%	L7Days	36.2%	7.4%	17.8%
Athletics	Home	32.7%	17.7%	17.7%	LH	31.8%	10.4%	14.0%	L7Days	26.5%	18.2%	8.0%
Astros	Road	31.5%	14.7%	14.2%	LH	26.0%	16.4%	6.7%	L7Days	33.3%	21.8%	16.9%
Braves	Home	31.6%	11.4%	14.5%	RH	31.1%	10.3%	13.2%	L7Days	30.7%	10.0%	10.4%
Blue Jays	Road	31.8%	15.9%	11.8%	RH	30.8%	15.8%	10.9%	L7Days	28.3%	16.9%	13.2%
Giants	Road	30.4%	9.5%	9.8%	RH	28.6%	9.0%	7.2%	L7Days	25.0%	5.6%	3.0%
Marlins	Road	29.6%	13.0%	9.1%	RH	30.6%	13.3%	10.7%	L7Days	26.3%	17.9%	5.7%
Cubs	Home	31.0%	16.2%	14.4%	RH	29.7%	12.5%	12.7%	L7Days	29.2%	13.6%	9.8%
Indians	Road	35.9%	11.4%	19.0%	LH	33.2%	11.4%	16.0%	L7Days	35.3%	11.8%	21.2%
Reds	Home	28.9%	15.4%	7.1%	RH	28.8%	14.3%	8.0%	L7Days	28.5%	20.0%	2.7%
Diamondbacks	Home	39.9%	17.3%	27.3%	RH	36.2%	15.7%	19.7%	L7Days	31.3%	10.9%	14.0%
Angels	Road	32.5%	11.5%	13.7%	RH	29.9%	13.2%	9.9%	L7Days	25.3%	17.0%	4.4%
Phillies	Road	28.3%	11.3%	6.2%	RH	29.4%	11.5%	8.0%	L7Days	28.9%	16.7%	13.8%
Rays	Home	35.8%	14.0%	16.8%	RH	36.2%	18.2%	18.7%	L7Days	28.7%	16.7%	3.9%
Yankees	Home	30.4%	19.7%	7.6%	RH	31.9%	17.4%	12.9%	L7Days	39.5%	17.3%	26.1%
Dodgers	Home	35.5%	16.3%	21.5%	RH	34.5%	13.3%	19.8%	L7Days	29.9%	7.3%	12.1%
Rockies	Home	30.3%	16.3%	10.3%	RH	30.2%	13.8%	9.8%	L7Days	27.1%	15.9%	5.8%
Brewers	Home	38.1%	18.4%	17.1%	LH	36.0%	17.1%	14.0%	L7Days	39.5%	17.0%	18.4%
Pirates	Road	30.6%	11.7%	8.8%	LH	29.5%	13.3%	8.6%	L7Days	35.4%	14.0%	10.7%
Twins	Road	31.9%	13.7%	16.0%	RH	33.4%	14.0%	18.0%	L7Days	31.7%	20.4%	15.9%
Mets	Road	38.6%	17.2%	21.5%	RH	35.3%	12.9%	17.7%	L7Days	37.1%	18.2%	19.5%
Padres	Road	30.4%	14.8%	8.8%	RH	29.2%	14.4%	7.3%	L7Days	35.6%	19.5%	16.4%
Rangers	Home	33.0%	15.5%	12.8%	RH	32.9%	15.0%	12.3%	L7Days	26.9%	14.8%	0.8%
White Sox	Road	31.1%	14.5%	13.5%	RH	29.2%	13.7%	10.1%	L7Days	42.7%	11.4%	25.0%

K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.4 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

Pitcher	Team	K% Season	SwStr% Season	K%/SwStr%	K% L30 Days	SwStr% L30 Days	K%/SwStr%
Adalberto Mejia	MIN	20.3%	8.1%	2.51	19.4%	7.2%	2.69
Alex Meyer	ANA	24.4%	8.4%	2.90	27.5%	10.0%	2.75
Bronson Arroyo	CIN	14.2%	7.9%	1.80	11.6%	8.7%	1.33
CC Sabathia	NYY	19.5%	9.5%	2.05	22.6%	8.1%	2.79
Chad Kuhl	PIT	18.0%	11.6%	1.55	18.5%	10.4%	1.78
Clayton Kershaw	LOS	28.8%	12.8%	2.25	30.0%	14.9%	2.01
Dallas Keuchel	HOU	24.4%	10.5%	2.32	31.5%	10.5%	3.00
Francisco Liriano	TOR	21.9%	10.6%	2.07	14.3%	7.5%	1.91
Jason Vargas	KAN	19.7%	10.9%	1.81	15.0%	9.7%	1.55
Jerad Eickhoff	PHI	19.4%	7.9%	2.46	16.5%	7.1%	2.32
Jharel Cotton	OAK	20.2%	10.1%	2.00	22.5%	10.6%	2.12
Jimmy Nelson	MIL	24.3%	10.4%	2.34	30.5%	12.5%	2.44
John Lackey	CHC	23.3%	11.1%	2.10	23.4%	13.2%	1.77
Jose Urena	MIA	13.6%	8.1%	1.68	14.2%	8.1%	1.75
Kyle Freeland	COL	14.2%	6.3%	2.25	14.7%	7.0%	2.10
Lance Lynn	STL	22.6%	9.5%	2.38	24.1%	9.7%	2.48
Luis Perdomo	SDG	21.1%	10.2%	2.07	22.6%	10.9%	2.07
Michael Fulmer	DET	19.3%	9.7%	1.99	16.2%	9.1%	1.78
Mike Foltynewicz	ATL	20.4%	8.7%	2.34	20.2%	7.5%	2.69
Mike Pelfrey	CHW	13.9%	6.2%	2.24	18.6%	5.9%	3.15
Rick Porcello	BOS	22.2%	10.8%	2.06	20.1%	10.7%	1.88
Stephen Strasburg	WAS	27.1%	11.4%	2.38	33.1%	12.4%	2.67
Trevor Bauer	CLE	29.1%	8.8%	3.31	32.3%	8.6%	3.76
Ty Blach	SFO	9.9%	6.0%	1.65	12.7%	7.1%	1.79
Wade Miley	BAL	20.6%	7.7%	2.68	12.3%	6.1%	2.02
Yovani Gallardo	SEA	16.4%	7.9%	2.08	14.9%	6.5%	2.29
Yu Darvish	TEX	25.9%	11.0%	2.35	26.4%	13.0%	2.03
Zack Greinke	ARI	29.7%	14.7%	2.02	34.4%	17.0%	2.02
Zack Wheeler	NYM	21.6%	9.0%	2.40	20.8%	7.8%	2.67
Jacob Faria	TAM

Our unmentioned outliers are inconsequential today.

ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.37 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.

Pitcher	Team	Season ERA	Season SIERA	DIFF	Season xFIP	DIFF	Season FIP	DIFF	Season DRA	DIFF	ERA L30	SIERA L30	DIFF	xFIP L30	DIFF	FIP L30	DIFF
Adalberto Mejia	MIN	3.95	4.84	0.89	4.79	0.84	5.32	1.37	3.94	-0.01	3	4.33	1.33	4.04	1.04	4.66	1.66
Alex Meyer	ANA	4.91	4.87	-0.04	4.78	-0.13	4.45	-0.46	4.81	-0.10	3.32	4.42	1.1	4.53	1.21	4.48	1.16
Bronson Arroyo	CIN	6.24	5.3	-0.94	5.61	-0.63	7.02	0.78	10.37	4.13	5.93	5.94	0.01	6.34	0.41	8.61	2.68
CC Sabathia	NYY	4.12	4.41	0.29	4.26	0.14	4.46	0.34	5.02	0.90	2.67	3.77	1.1	3.7	1.03	3.38	0.71
Chad Kuhl	PIT	6.02	4.82	-1.2	4.99	-1.03	4.09	-1.93	4.26	-1.76	6.56	4.63	-1.93	4.61	-1.95	4.68	-1.88
Clayton Kershaw	LOS	2.28	2.86	0.58	2.7	0.42	2.96	0.68	2.85	0.57	2.1	2.63	0.53	2.35	0.25	2.64	0.54
Dallas Keuchel	HOU	1.67	2.96	1.29	2.79	1.12	3.01	1.34	1.50	-0.17	1.17	1.78	0.61	1.57	0.4	1.27	0.1
Francisco Liriano	TOR	5.94	5.18	-0.76	5	-0.94	4.94	-1	5.19	-0.75	11.57	6.03	-5.54	6.5	-5.07	5.62	-5.95
Jason Vargas	KAN	2.08	4.28	2.2	4.39	2.31	3.17	1.09	4.02	1.94	3.13	5.18	2.05	5.29	2.16	4.35	1.22
Jerad Eickhoff	PHI	5.13	4.6	-0.53	4.69	-0.44	4.06	-1.07	7.32	2.19	6.85	4.88	-1.97	4.72	-2.13	5.08	-1.77
Jharel Cotton	OAK	5.11	4.78	-0.33	5.05	-0.06	4.63	-0.48	6.29	1.18	6.06	4.57	-1.49	4.98	-1.08	5.93	-0.13
Jimmy Nelson	MIL	3.36	3.57	0.21	3.39	0.03	3.04	-0.32	3.96	0.60	1.93	2.71	0.78	2.27	0.34	1.95	0.02
John Lackey	CHC	4.9	3.93	-0.97	3.96	-0.94	4.95	0.05	5.64	0.74	4.6	4.19	-0.41	4.28	-0.32	5.1	0.5
Jose Urena	MIA	3.8	5.25	1.45	5.58	1.78	5.46	1.66	6.39	2.59	4.5	5.54	1.04	5.81	1.31	6.02	1.52
Kyle Freeland	COL	3.53	4.98	1.45	4.85	1.32	4.65	1.12	5.17	1.64	4.55	5.3	0.75	5.35	0.8	5.78	1.23
Lance Lynn	STL	2.97	4.23	1.26	4.34	1.37	4.81	1.84	4.94	1.97	4.13	4.25	0.12	4.42	0.29	5.66	1.53
Luis Perdomo	SDG	5.01	3.42	-1.59	3.55	-1.46	3.77	-1.24	4.16	-0.85	5.79	3.51	-2.28	3.69	-2.1	4.3	-1.49
Michael Fulmer	DET	3	3.99	0.99	3.88	0.88	2.97	-0.03	2.66	-0.34	3.25	4.01	0.76	3.86	0.61	2.22	-1.03
Mike Foltynewicz	ATL	3.9	4.15	0.25	4.01	0.11	4.35	0.45	5.15	1.25	3.21	3.9	0.69	3.56	0.35	4.05	0.84
Mike Pelfrey	CHW	3.86	5.01	1.15	4.87	1.01	4.67	0.81	3.47	-0.39	3.2	4.2	1	4.15	0.95	4.55	1.35
Rick Porcello	BOS	4.24	3.79	-0.45	3.96	-0.28	3.79	-0.45	4.46	0.22	4.65	3.96	-0.69	4.02	-0.63	3.5	-1.15
Stephen Strasburg	WAS	2.91	3.43	0.52	3.31	0.4	2.63	-0.28	2.09	-0.82	3.21	2.93	-0.28	2.91	-0.3	2.52	-0.69
Trevor Bauer	CLE	5.83	3.37	-2.46	3.19	-2.64	4.02	-1.81	3.46	-2.37	4.26	2.79	-1.47	2.48	-1.78	3.21	-1.05
Ty Blach	SFO	3.24	5.03	1.79	4.65	1.41	3.87	0.63	6.31	3.07	1.91	4.33	2.42	4.01	2.1	3.26	1.35
Wade Miley	BAL	2.82	4.55	1.73	4.08	1.26	4.4	1.58	3.88	1.06	3.41	4.75	1.34	4.37	0.96	5.09	1.68
Yovani Gallardo	SEA	6.24	5.01	-1.23	4.7	-1.54	5.1	-1.14	5.25	-0.99	8.87	5.69	-3.18	5.5	-3.37	7.68	-1.19
Yu Darvish	TEX	3.13	4	0.87	3.95	0.82	4.02	0.89	2.87	-0.26	3.72	3.71	-0.01	4.15	0.43	4.29	0.57
Zack Greinke	ARI	3.06	3.01	-0.05	2.98	-0.08	3.14	0.08	1.99	-1.07	3.03	2.67	-0.36	2.76	-0.27	3.02	-0.01
Zack Wheeler	NYM	3.72	4.24	0.52	3.91	0.19	3.97	0.25	4.87	1.15	2.76	4.42	1.66	3.96	1.2	4.04	1.28
Jacob Faria	TAM

Dallas Keuchel has a .222 BABIP and 88.7 LOB%. While those numbers are unsustainable for anybody, we need to recognize the incredible contact that he is generating, including the low line drive rate.

Luis Perdomo is stranding just two-thirds of runners due to the high BABIP, which there really doesn’t seem to be a legitimate reason for.

BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 44.5 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)

A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.

Pitcher	Team	Team BABIP	Pitcher BABIP	Diff	GB%	Pitcher LD%	Pitcher IFFB%	Pitcher Zcontact	Exit Velocity	Barrels BBE	Barrels PA	BBE
Adalberto Mejia	MIN	0.278	0.297	0.019	45.6%	0.177	10.3%	84.5%	88.8	10.10%	6.80%	79
Alex Meyer	ANA	0.282	0.297	0.015	46.1%	0.171	10.7%	91.1%	86.7	7.80%	4.60%	77
Bronson Arroyo	CIN	0.276	0.261	-0.015	30.3%	0.21	9.5%	90.2%	87.6	10.60%	8.30%	199
CC Sabathia	NYY	0.282	0.288	0.006	47.3%	0.207	3.3%	87.6%	86.8	5.70%	4.00%	193
Chad Kuhl	PIT	0.303	0.342	0.039	38.9%	0.21	4.8%	84.6%	87.2	5.60%	4.10%	160
Clayton Kershaw	LOS	0.284	0.259	-0.025	47.9%	0.19	10.0%	82.8%	85.5	6.50%	4.40%	216
Dallas Keuchel	HOU	0.289	0.222	-0.067	67.4%	0.142	5.7%	88.5%	83.6	5.20%	3.50%	194
Francisco Liriano	TOR	0.298	0.330	0.032	47.4%	0.206	3.2%	85.1%	88.7	7.10%	4.40%	98
Jason Vargas	KAN	0.300	0.278	-0.022	37.3%	0.199	11.6%	81.2%	86.6	3.40%	2.60%	203
Jerad Eickhoff	PHI	0.296	0.335	0.039	39.7%	0.212	6.8%	89.7%	88.8	6.70%	4.80%	195
Jharel Cotton	OAK	0.287	0.289	0.002	38.5%	0.168	12.5%	82.0%	86.2	3.40%	2.30%	147
Jimmy Nelson	MIL	0.306	0.330	0.024	47.3%	0.209	1.7%	85.8%	85.9	3.80%	2.60%	185
John Lackey	CHC	0.289	0.302	0.013	44.4%	0.193	8.8%	84.4%	86.2	6.20%	4.20%	193
Jose Urena	MIA	0.276	0.264	-0.012	40.1%	0.184	12.7%	90.4%	85.4	10.30%	7.80%	156
Kyle Freeland	COL	0.288	0.277	-0.011	57.4%	0.159	11.5%	92.1%	85.8	4.50%	3.30%	201
Lance Lynn	STL	0.287	0.204	-0.083	45.3%	0.165	4.6%	79.1%	87	7.00%	4.60%	172
Luis Perdomo	SDG	0.302	0.336	0.034	65.6%	0.139	6.5%	92.8%	86.7	5.30%	3.70%	151
Michael Fulmer	DET	0.304	0.283	-0.021	48.9%	0.204	10.1%	87.8%	85.3	4.40%	3.30%	227
Mike Foltynewicz	ATL	0.282	0.300	0.018	43.0%	0.244	10.7%	86.4%	86.2	7.30%	5.20%	179
Mike Pelfrey	CHW	0.274	0.228	-0.046	47.2%	0.197	7.1%	88.8%	86.4	5.50%	4.20%	128
Rick Porcello	BOS	0.311	0.367	0.056	37.9%	0.217	9.3%	85.6%	88.9	9.50%	7.00%	241
Stephen Strasburg	WAS	0.295	0.272	-0.023	46.6%	0.192	7.6%	86.3%	88	8.70%	5.70%	196
Trevor Bauer	CLE	0.304	0.347	0.043	43.9%	0.213	11.1%	86.5%	90.8	13.20%	8.20%	152
Ty Blach	SFO	0.307	0.250	-0.057	50.8%	0.199	7.1%	89.7%	86.5	5.10%	4.30%	196
Wade Miley	BAL	0.304	0.286	-0.018	55.2%	0.213	14.6%	91.1%	87	5.10%	3.40%	175
Yovani Gallardo	SEA	0.283	0.324	0.041	47.9%	0.234	13.0%	87.5%	88.3	6.30%	4.60%	191
Yu Darvish	TEX	0.285	0.259	-0.026	37.1%	0.258	5.6%	85.8%	87.1	6.70%	4.20%	195
Zack Greinke	ARI	0.288	0.267	-0.021	45.2%	0.171	12.0%	84.3%	86.7	7.90%	5.20%	202
Zack Wheeler	NYM	0.327	0.305	-0.022	49.4%	0.234	7.0%	85.4%	87.7	6.90%	4.70%	159
Jacob Faria	TAM	0.285

Pitcher Notes & Summary

Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.

We’re not keeping a lot of arms tonight, but the ones we are grade above a lot of marginal ones I made the decision to cut today that could have been tier four guys (Darvish, Porcello, Lackey).

Value Tier One

Dallas Keuchel (1) is the man the on this slate. He hasn’t gone more than six innings since his brief stay on the DL, but I feel like today is the say against the second worst offense against LHP. If you ever want to bet on batted ball results, he’s the guy and with enough strikeouts to make it work. Can’t wait to check the new PlateIQ tool later, but this would seem the ideal matchup for him against an offense that is willing to chase out of the zone and make weak contact. They are 25th in baseball with an 85 sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers.

Value Tier Two

Buck Farmer – I don’t necessarily have all the information here, but the strong peripherals at a miniscule cost against a below average offense is enough.

Zack Greinke (2) costs the same as Keuchel. While he may be in a higher strikeout spot, there’s probably just a bit more risk in that park and the Padres are actually a bit better vs RHP than the Royals are against lefties.

Value Tier Three

Jimmy Nelson has been a Cy Young candidate in his last two starts. We’re going to be a bit more conservative with him and move slowly here because he’s disappointed us in the past and I can’t immediately find the reason for the sudden strikeout spike.

Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.

Luis Perdomo is likely to go under-owned tonight with an ERA over five in Arizona. You can really make a favorable comparison to a lot of his numbers with Keuchel though. In no way am I saying they are the same pitcher and they are in completely different situations tonight, but he costs just half the price on DraftKings.

You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.

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