Advanced Stats - Pitching: Wednesday, May 24th
There is no truth to the rumor that the Mets bullpen has finally killed me, although it can’t be healthy for the blood pressure. I’d still like to apologize for the unplanned hiatus, but sometimes things happen that can’t be avoided or that we have little control over. Hopefully, that will be the last unplanned interruption for the rest of the season.
We return to a 10 game night slate that includes the top arm in baseball this year, one who appears to have broken out and a few more who might be interesting. All 30 pitchers are listed, so the race is on to complete and post this before early first pitch.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Morton | HOU | -3.5 | 3.79 | 5.47 | 55.7% | 0.94 | 3.46 | 4.18 | DET | 84 | 99 | 92 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 0.4 | 2.81 | 7.03 | 41.5% | 1.13 | 3.02 | 1.74 | TEX | 88 | 78 | 140 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | -3.4 | 4.58 | 5.7 | 42.9% | 1.02 | 4.4 | 4.61 | MIN | 105 | 114 | 129 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 4.3 | 4.19 | 5.1 | 41.0% | 0.94 | 4.17 | 3.95 | HOU | 112 | 96 | 83 |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | 4.8 | 4.61 | 5.66 | 48.4% | 0.93 | 4.79 | 4.68 | OAK | 117 | 107 | 115 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | -0.1 | 3.93 | 5.77 | 49.5% | 0.96 | 3.98 | 3.73 | ANA | 81 | 94 | 135 |
| Jarred Cosart | SDG | -9.1 | 5.27 | 4.33 | 59.3% | 0.91 | 5.42 | 3.96 | NYM | 81 | 95 | 104 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 8.5 | 4.12 | 5.31 | 39.1% | 1.01 | 4.97 | 5.62 | NYY | 135 | 123 | 104 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 11.1 | 4.25 | 5.67 | 40.2% | 0.96 | 3.89 | 5.86 | COL | 89 | 79 | 102 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 11 | 4.96 | 4.58 | 38.0% | 1.02 | 5.83 | 3.18 | BAL | 89 | 98 | 90 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | -2.7 | 3.91 | 6.51 | 42.9% | 1.13 | 4.56 | 4.38 | ARI | 117 | 70 | 119 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 5.4 | 4.24 | 6.14 | 38.4% | 1 | 4.31 | 5.17 | PIT | 74 | 81 | 96 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 3.4 | 3.61 | 5.94 | 50.2% | 0.96 | 3.24 | 3.83 | SFO | 72 | 72 | 63 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla | CIN | 20.7 | 4.82 | 6.55 | 40.4% | 1.09 | 4.24 | 5.08 | CLE | 103 | 103 | 108 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 0 | 3.75 | 5.23 | 48.4% | 1.01 | 3.49 | 4.52 | KAN | 74 | 81 | 99 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | -2.4 | 3.57 | 6.4 | 60.7% | 1.02 | 3.34 | 2.11 | MIL | 104 | 98 | 78 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 0.7 | 4.84 | 5.86 | 53.4% | 1.13 | 4.91 | 3.66 | BOS | 88 | 95 | 96 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | -5.8 | 4.58 | 5.58 | 49.3% | 1.02 | 4.02 | 4.76 | TOR | 91 | 87 | 102 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 2.1 | 4.49 | 5.8 | 38.2% | 0.96 | 5.05 | 4.76 | CHC | 101 | 108 | 125 |
| Mike Leake | STL | -10.2 | 3.94 | 6.15 | 52.8% | 0.89 | 3.94 | 3.92 | LOS | 124 | 113 | 115 |
| Randall Delgado | ARI | -5 | 3.98 | 2.1 | 41.5% | 1.13 | 4.08 | 2.53 | CHW | 88 | 80 | 127 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | -1.3 | 3.17 | 5.63 | 45.4% | 0.89 | 3.96 | 2.63 | STL | 93 | 73 | 66 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | -4.1 | 4.32 | 5.91 | 41.6% | 0.96 | 4.41 | 5.7 | TAM | 111 | 114 | 104 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | -4.1 | 3.96 | 5.37 | 55.7% | 0.91 | 3.27 | 4.68 | SDG | 78 | 82 | 54 |
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 5.3 | 3.54 | 5. | 0.4 | 1.01 | 0.74 | 3.54 | WAS | 130 | 111 | 73 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | -7.8 | 4.08 | 5.96 | 0.539 | 0.93 | 3.99 | 3.71 | MIA | 102 | 86 | 110 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | -6 | 4.28 | 6. | 0.476 | 1.01 | 4.1 | 5.66 | SEA | 92 | 108 | 36 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | -8.8 | 4.17 | 5.93 | 0.45 | 1.09 | 4.02 | 2.21 | CIN | 100 | 102 | 116 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | -5.8 | 4.83 | 4.3 | 0.45 | 1 | 4.69 | 4.97 | ATL | 99 | 95 | 120 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 2.6 | 4.63 | 5.86 | 0.569 | 0.96 | 4.34 | 5.68 | PHI | 107 | 90 | 52 |
Charlie Morton has an issue with hard contact (37.9 Hard%, 19.4 HR/FB), some issues with control (8.9 BB%) and the lowest ground ball rate of his career (48.6%). Fortunately, his Barrel rate (3.1% per PA) has remained below average, but the offense he is facing has connects at the highest rate in the majors. The good news is the sacrifices haven’t come for nothing. He continues to throw harder than he ever has and miss more bats than he ever has (26.1 K%). For daily fantasy players, that’s the most important thing. As mentioned, the Tigers do hammer the baseball on contact (27.1 Hard-Soft% vs RHP), but also have a 24.9 K% on the road and 22.9 K% vs RHP. The lineup, as a whole, can be navigated and Houston is not a positive run environment.
Chris Sale has struck out at least 10 in eight straight starts. His 33.3 K-BB% is better than any other qualified pitcher’s pure strikeout rate. His 16.4 SwStr% is higher than the K% of seven pitchers on tonight’s board. Texas is a hot offense (16.2 K%, 40.7 Hard%) in a tough run environment, but with a 24.6 K% against LHP.
Daniel Norris has struck out eight in two of his last four starts, but has failed to strike out more than five in any other start. That part of his game has been nearly league average overall, but his double digit walk rate (10.4%) and 46.4 Hard% (89.2 mph aEV) have under-mined any gains. The Astros don’t strike out a ton against LHP (19.2%), but in his favor is that they’ve struggled to make quality contact against LHP (24.4 Hard%) or at home (27.9 Hard%). In fact, as a team, their 3.64% Barrels/PA overall is one of the lower marks in the league. Houston is also more of a negative run environment than most people realize because it’s power friendly.
Erasmo Ramirez has effectively navigated two quality offenses in his two starts (Tigers and Yankees), even pitching into the sixth inning in his most recent one despite throwing no more than 66 pitches either time. He’s struck out 10 of 39 batters in a starting role and though the Angels have been a hot offense, a lot of that is due to an enormous walk rate over the last week (15.8%). They’re striking out more often against RHP (20.6%) this season and have been one of the worst road offenses in baseball.
Kyle Hendricks is not a velocity guy, but it was encouraging to see him sitting a mph harder, closer to last year’s range, in his last start. He actually hasn’t allowed more than three runs to any team other than Milwuakee. Though his 51.6 GB% is actually higher than last season, his 35.9 Hard% is a 10 point jump in the wrong direction and his SwStr rate is down 2.4 points, while his walk rate is up significantly as well (9.6%). That said, his 2.7% Barrels/PA is one of the lowest marks on the board. He might have the top matchup on the slate though. The Giants have barreled the ball on just 3.55% of PAs and have a single digit HR/FB both on the road and vs RHP. They also have just a 70 sOPS+ against GB pitchers.
Luis Severino has struck out at least six in six of his eight starts, though three or fewer in two of his last four. He had a nice bounce back effort in Tampa Bay after a rough one where Houston knocked him out in the third inning. Six of his 13 walks this season have come in his last two starts (39 BF) as well with a decline in pitches in the zone, despite a 73.9 F-Strike% in his last start. Tampa Bay chased 41.2% of pitches out of the zone, while Houston chased just 24.4%. Perhaps teams that can lay off pitches out of the zone will have some success against him, but that’s probably not a free swinging Kansas City group. The low walk rate was never much of an issue when they were never striking out, but now that they do so more than average, the offense has been a disaster.
Rich Hill has proven to be one of the better pitchers in baseball over the last couple of years when his fingers are blister free, but that hasn’t been very often. While his SwStr% has dropped, he’s struck out 13 of 53 batters faced this year, though we’re not yet at a point where his numbers have stabilized.
Interestingly, he’s already almost reached last year’s HR total (three this year, four last) with nearly one-third of contact categorized as hard so far. He was allowed to throw 82 pitches in his last start, which may encouragingly put him at 90 for this one against one of the worst offenses in the league against LHP (23.2 K%, 5.2 HR/FB). While it shouldn’t make a lot of sense, this does not appear to be fluky as the Cardinals do not have a lot of offensive turnover and have struggled against LHP for several seasons now. This, along with the run environment may put him in one of the top spots on the board.
Robert Gsellman has played up a bit out of the pen in his last two outings and has a great matchup against the Padres (17.0 K-BB%, 6.6 Hard-Soft% against RHP). Despite his other issues, he’s kept the ball on the ground at 57% rate. The issue is that his defense is bad at turning those GBs into outs. That’s not the only issue either. He’s had in game velocity issues with a diminished SwStr% and spin rate. This is far from a ringing endorsement, but just remember the part where he’s facing the Padres.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.288 BABIP – 73.4 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Mike Leake (.244 – 86.5% – 9.1) is actually missing bats at the highest rate of his career (8.2 SwStr%), which could make him daily fantasy useful in some spots and we may even be able to buy into a lower HR rate in a park that suppresses power a bit more. That’s not Dodger Stadium, though it’s an extremely negative run environment. The issue is that he costs more than $8K against one of the strongest offenses against RHP and we can’t really trust much of what’s kept his ERA below three and a half.
Jeremy Hellickson (.205 – 82.1% – 12.2) appears to be a complete smoke and mirror configuration who’s decline in bat missing skills this year has been frightening. He doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact and the matchup is favorable, but there’s no upside here.
Martin Perez (.335 – 78% – 8.5) has a 6.7 K-BB% that’s actually slightly higher than his career mark, but his 36.3 Hard% is a career high.
Jarred Cosart (.310 – 71.4% – 0.0) keeps the ball on the ground and doesn’t allow too much hard contact, but has a K-BB% that perfectly matches his HR rate so far. The Mets not only have a 113 sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers, but the same mark against low strikeout pitchers as well (fourth best in the majors).
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Sam Gaviglio has thrown what amounts to one strong start in his two (7 IP – 1 ER – 6 K – 28 BF). While 40% of his contact has been hard and he’s only generated seven swings and misses, he’s getting this opportunity because he walks nobody. His K-BB% has been around league average in the minors since last season even with a below average K%. He’s’ also generated GBs at a high rate in the minors. That’s probably not enough even at a near minimum cost against a potent Washington lineup.
Tanner Roark has missed bats at nearly a league average rate and probably more consistently this season, but his contact management has not been as dominant (though not bad), while his walk rate has risen higher than the league average. Seattle has been the coldest offense in the league with Cano banged up though.
Tyler Chatwood has a 56% ground ball rate and league average SwStr% that could play in Philadelphia, but part of the reason for an under-achieving K% might be his 12.2 BB% because he’s throwing first pitch strikes barely half the time (51.8%). He needs to get to strike three before ball four more often.
Julio Teheran has allowed eight HRs. The new park is unlikely to do him nearly as many favors as the last one. In his favor is that six of those HRs have gone to LHBs and the Pirates are still a predominantly RH lineup and not a good one, but his 16.4 K% is the first time that he’s ever been below 20% in his career with a cost still above $8K.
Ricky Nolasco has the highest rate of Barrels per PA (8.3%) and faces an offense that strikes out a lot, but hits the ball pretty hard as well (17.5 HR/FB vs RHP, 31.4 Hard-Soft% over the last week). Considering he does have some strikeout potential here, I wouldn’t mind him at about $1K less than his current cost.
Matt Moore
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Years | 20.2% | 8.0% | Home | 25.1% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 13.0% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 30.5% | 4.8% | Home | 30.4% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 42.3% | 3.9% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | L2 Years | 18.1% | 8.6% | Home | 21.4% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 8.5% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | L2 Years | 21.0% | 7.7% | Road | 21.1% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 7.7% |
| Edinson Volquez | Marlins | L2 Years | 17.6% | 9.4% | Road | 15.4% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 9.8% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Rays | L2 Years | 18.2% | 5.8% | Home | 20.7% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 23.7% | 7.9% |
| Jarred Cosart | Padres | L2 Years | 14.8% | 14.2% | Road | 10.3% | 15.5% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 4.8% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 21.5% | 7.5% | Road | 18.8% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 9.5% | 3.2% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 18.7% | 5.7% | Home | 21.1% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 7.0% | 2.3% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 19.1% | 11.0% | Road | 16.8% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 3.7% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | L2 Years | 21.2% | 6.0% | Road | 20.0% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 9.3% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 20.4% | 7.4% | Home | 21.7% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 7.1% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.8% | 6.5% | Home | 23.0% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 7.8% |
| Lisalverto Bonilla | Reds | L2 Years | 17.5% | 10.0% | Road | 16.1% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 13.8% | 8.6% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 23.2% | 7.9% | Home | 24.1% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 15.4% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.3% | 6.3% | Road | 20.4% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 5.8% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 13.2% | 8.5% | Road | 11.8% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 3.8% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 15.6% | 7.4% | Home | 19.0% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 6.7% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 19.9% | 8.6% | Road | 19.1% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 20.7% | 10.3% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 16.7% | 4.7% | Road | 16.7% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 5.6% |
| Randall Delgado | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 21.9% | 9.8% | Home | 21.1% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 3.2% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 29.8% | 7.2% | Home | 25.3% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 0.0% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Angels | L2 Years | 18.5% | 5.7% | Road | 18.9% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 15.1% | 13.2% |
| Robert Gsellman | Mets | L2 Years | 19.5% | 7.8% | Home | 21.0% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 11.1% |
| Sam Gaviglio | Mariners | L2 Years | 21.4% | 3.6% | Road | 50.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 3.6% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | L2 Years | 18.5% | 7.5% | Home | 18.5% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 8.3% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 19.0% | 7.9% | Home | 21.6% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 14.6% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 22.0% | 9.3% | Home | 21.7% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 34.0% | 2.1% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Years | 15.4% | 9.1% | Road | 16.5% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 9.3% | 7.0% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 17.8% | 10.9% | Road | 18.6% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 19.6% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigers | Road | 24.9% | 10.1% | RH | 22.9% | 10.5% | L7Days | 23.8% | 10.7% |
| Rangers | Road | 23.4% | 8.2% | LH | 24.6% | 7.9% | L7Days | 16.2% | 8.1% |
| Twins | Road | 20.8% | 9.4% | RH | 21.3% | 10.9% | L7Days | 18.7% | 11.3% |
| Astros | Home | 18.6% | 8.0% | LH | 19.2% | 10.0% | L7Days | 22.7% | 7.1% |
| Athletics | Home | 24.6% | 8.6% | RH | 23.2% | 9.7% | L7Days | 28.3% | 7.8% |
| Angels | Road | 22.3% | 9.6% | RH | 20.6% | 9.0% | L7Days | 20.3% | 15.8% |
| Mets | Home | 19.6% | 8.9% | RH | 19.4% | 9.3% | L7Days | 21.8% | 7.8% |
| Yankees | Home | 24.2% | 11.1% | RH | 22.7% | 9.5% | L7Days | 27.6% | 7.7% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.8% | 7.5% | RH | 22.2% | 7.4% | L7Days | 20.1% | 8.2% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.1% | 8.4% | RH | 21.8% | 7.1% | L7Days | 21.9% | 7.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 20.8% | 8.4% | LH | 22.3% | 7.7% | L7Days | 18.5% | 8.2% |
| Pirates | Road | 19.7% | 8.7% | RH | 18.1% | 8.7% | L7Days | 14.0% | 10.6% |
| Giants | Road | 21.3% | 7.8% | RH | 20.1% | 6.9% | L7Days | 23.0% | 5.8% |
| Indians | Home | 20.3% | 10.2% | RH | 21.7% | 9.3% | L7Days | 22.7% | 7.9% |
| Royals | Road | 21.6% | 6.6% | RH | 21.4% | 6.8% | L7Days | 18.6% | 6.2% |
| Brewers | Home | 25.7% | 9.3% | RH | 24.0% | 8.5% | L7Days | 20.4% | 11.4% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.2% | 9.0% | LH | 14.5% | 11.0% | L7Days | 20.9% | 9.4% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.3% | 8.2% | RH | 20.7% | 7.2% | L7Days | 18.3% | 7.4% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.0% | 10.1% | LH | 21.6% | 13.5% | L7Days | 20.3% | 9.5% |
| Dodgers | Home | 20.7% | 10.0% | RH | 21.7% | 10.3% | L7Days | 24.5% | 11.0% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.1% | 5.9% | RH | 22.8% | 6.0% | L7Days | 21.6% | 6.1% |
| Cardinals | Road | 20.5% | 7.3% | LH | 23.2% | 8.7% | L7Days | 22.2% | 5.6% |
| Rays | Home | 25.4% | 9.8% | RH | 26.6% | 9.5% | L7Days | 28.5% | 9.0% |
| Padres | Road | 25.7% | 7.1% | RH | 24.7% | 7.7% | L7Days | 21.2% | 9.9% |
| Nationals | Home | 18.8% | 9.7% | RH | 19.6% | 9.7% | L7Days | 19.1% | 6.0% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.1% | 6.1% | RH | 20.2% | 6.5% | L7Days | 20.5% | 7.3% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.8% | 8.6% | RH | 20.6% | 9.1% | L7Days | 18.2% | 7.6% |
| Reds | Road | 17.9% | 7.8% | RH | 20.3% | 8.5% | L7Days | 21.1% | 7.9% |
| Braves | Home | 20.1% | 9.0% | RH | 20.5% | 8.7% | L7Days | 21.3% | 9.1% |
| Phillies | Home | 20.1% | 9.3% | RH | 21.9% | 8.1% | L7Days | 18.9% | 3.3% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Years | 31.9% | 16.2% | 12.3% | 2017 | 37.9% | 19.4% | 22.9% | Home | 33.3% | 19.4% | 19.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 36.4% | 15.5% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.5% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 2017 | 31.6% | 7.3% | 16.2% | Home | 33.5% | 18.8% | 17.4% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 15.4% | 14.3% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | L2 Years | 29.8% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 2017 | 26.5% | 0.0% | 2.0% | Home | 33.2% | 10.8% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 0.0% | 11.8% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | L2 Years | 35.2% | 11.5% | 19.9% | 2017 | 46.4% | 8.3% | 31.4% | Road | 37.8% | 5.2% | 25.0% | L14 Days | 55.9% | 15.4% | 35.3% |
| Edinson Volquez | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.6% | 11.5% | 13.4% | 2017 | 37.7% | 14.3% | 21.0% | Road | 34.8% | 16.7% | 14.4% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 11.1% | 8.6% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Rays | L2 Years | 28.5% | 12.6% | 9.7% | 2017 | 35.7% | 11.5% | 14.3% | Home | 26.3% | 9.5% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 42.3% | 0.0% | 26.9% |
| Jarred Cosart | Padres | L2 Years | 27.9% | 13.4% | 4.7% | 2017 | 28.6% | 0.0% | 7.2% | Road | 28.1% | 10.5% | 2.7% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 33.0% | 13.2% | 15.0% | 2017 | 33.1% | 9.8% | 16.2% | Road | 36.1% | 15.5% | 20.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 14.8% | 20.3% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 28.6% | 13.0% | 9.1% | 2017 | 28.2% | 12.2% | 7.0% | Home | 22.0% | 12.2% | -0.8% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 32.3% | 12.9% | 12.4% | 2017 | 26.5% | 0.0% | -2.9% | Road | 31.5% | 12.3% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 0.0% | -2.9% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | L2 Years | 30.5% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 2017 | 28.0% | 8.6% | 6.9% | Road | 28.9% | 5.3% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 27.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 32.6% | 10.7% | 14.3% | 2017 | 32.9% | 11.6% | 9.5% | Home | 33.9% | 12.8% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 43.8% | 20.0% | 18.8% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 26.6% | 11.8% | 4.7% | 2017 | 35.9% | 15.8% | 14.5% | Home | 28.4% | 9.0% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 36.1% | 10.0% | 13.9% |
| Lisalverto Bonilla | Reds | L2 Years | 26.8% | 21.1% | 3.6% | 2017 | 26.8% | 21.1% | 3.6% | Road | 16.7% | 25.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 23.1% | -2.3% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 28.6% | 17.6% | 6.6% | 2017 | 30.4% | 20.6% | 12.8% | Home | 29.2% | 25.0% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 34.8% | 0.0% | 26.1% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.2% | 15.3% | 10.7% | 2017 | 28.2% | 11.1% | 6.4% | Road | 30.4% | 19.2% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 14.7% | 0.0% | -11.8% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 29.6% | 9.0% | 13.1% | 2017 | 36.3% | 8.5% | 22.0% | Road | 34.2% | 9.7% | 20.0% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 10.0% | 27.5% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 34.3% | 12.3% | 16.7% | 2017 | 36.0% | 10.0% | 25.9% | Home | 40.5% | 15.4% | 26.8% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 7.7% | 17.1% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 33.0% | 10.8% | 16.4% | 2017 | 42.5% | 11.6% | 28.1% | Road | 33.3% | 11.2% | 19.8% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 5.6% | 25.0% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 29.9% | 12.0% | 12.7% | 2017 | 27.4% | 9.1% | 9.1% | Road | 33.9% | 9.6% | 17.6% | L14 Days | 41.5% | 25.0% | 26.9% |
| Randall Delgado | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 32.2% | 8.7% | 15.0% | 2017 | 29.8% | 12.9% | 15.5% | Home | 32.8% | 12.5% | 15.3% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 0.0% | -14.2% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 27.6% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 2017 | 32.4% | 21.4% | 14.7% | Home | 31.3% | 8.0% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Angels | L2 Years | 34.3% | 13.0% | 20.0% | 2017 | 38.0% | 18.8% | 23.4% | Road | 39.9% | 14.7% | 27.1% | L14 Days | 44.7% | 15.4% | 28.9% |
| Robert Gsellman | Mets | L2 Years | 31.4% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 2017 | 34.3% | 16.7% | 15.3% | Home | 29.5% | 11.1% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 46.2% | 0.0% | 23.1% |
| Sam Gaviglio | Mariners | L2 Years | 40.0% | 16.7% | 15.0% | 2017 | 40.0% | 16.7% | 15.0% | Road | 50.0% | 50.0% | 25.0% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 16.7% | 15.0% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | L2 Years | 30.6% | 14.9% | 14.1% | 2017 | 31.0% | 19.0% | 18.3% | Home | 31.3% | 14.9% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 11.1% | 21.2% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 25.7% | 11.9% | 3.9% | 2017 | 28.6% | 12.2% | 12.4% | Home | 26.5% | 7.3% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 16.7% | 27.3% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 32.8% | 14.1% | 14.3% | 2017 | 37.9% | 22.7% | 23.4% | Home | 33.6% | 18.0% | 17.2% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 33.3% | 30.0% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Years | 28.8% | 19.1% | 3.0% | 2017 | 27.6% | 14.7% | -2.3% | Road | 26.1% | 33.3% | -1.4% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 9.1% | -2.7% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 29.6% | 15.7% | 10.2% | 2017 | 30.1% | 28.1% | 9.2% | Road | 24.7% | 9.8% | -0.4% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 18.5% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigers | Road | 36.0% | 12.4% | 18.6% | RH | 42.8% | 12.1% | 27.1% | L7Days | 40.4% | 14.3% | 23.6% |
| Rangers | Road | 31.4% | 14.2% | 10.7% | LH | 30.9% | 14.6% | 10.9% | L7Days | 40.7% | 11.6% | 22.1% |
| Twins | Road | 32.6% | 13.3% | 18.0% | RH | 33.6% | 14.3% | 18.6% | L7Days | 31.3% | 10.0% | 18.7% |
| Astros | Home | 27.9% | 16.5% | 8.6% | LH | 24.4% | 14.1% | 4.5% | L7Days | 29.0% | 13.6% | 11.1% |
| Athletics | Home | 34.4% | 17.5% | 19.8% | RH | 36.4% | 16.0% | 20.4% | L7Days | 34.1% | 17.6% | 16.7% |
| Angels | Road | 31.4% | 11.7% | 12.4% | RH | 29.6% | 13.3% | 9.0% | L7Days | 35.8% | 14.5% | 17.3% |
| Mets | Home | 31.6% | 9.1% | 11.4% | RH | 33.2% | 11.9% | 15.2% | L7Days | 36.6% | 15.7% | 20.9% |
| Yankees | Home | 30.9% | 22.6% | 8.6% | RH | 31.1% | 18.2% | 11.1% | L7Days | 33.9% | 14.5% | 13.9% |
| Rockies | Road | 32.0% | 13.3% | 12.2% | RH | 30.9% | 13.4% | 11.0% | L7Days | 28.9% | 15.3% | 9.3% |
| Orioles | Home | 27.5% | 11.8% | 6.6% | RH | 30.4% | 14.3% | 10.8% | L7Days | 27.6% | 13.9% | 5.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 40.3% | 17.6% | 27.3% | LH | 31.6% | 13.3% | 16.7% | L7Days | 38.8% | 21.1% | 25.3% |
| Pirates | Road | 29.3% | 10.2% | 8.1% | RH | 29.0% | 8.7% | 7.4% | L7Days | 26.7% | 8.8% | 2.6% |
| Giants | Road | 31.2% | 9.9% | 11.6% | RH | 28.6% | 9.8% | 7.5% | L7Days | 34.0% | 10.2% | 8.2% |
| Indians | Home | 31.5% | 13.7% | 15.3% | RH | 33.9% | 12.1% | 17.4% | L7Days | 32.3% | 18.3% | 18.1% |
| Royals | Road | 31.5% | 14.4% | 11.8% | RH | 31.8% | 12.7% | 11.9% | L7Days | 32.3% | 20.3% | 17.7% |
| Brewers | Home | 38.8% | 20.2% | 19.1% | RH | 33.8% | 18.9% | 14.9% | L7Days | 25.6% | 3.7% | 3.0% |
| Red Sox | Home | 37.8% | 7.2% | 18.9% | LH | 35.7% | 7.0% | 13.3% | L7Days | 27.3% | 9.1% | 10.2% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 30.7% | 15.1% | 9.7% | RH | 30.2% | 13.4% | 9.3% | L7Days | 24.7% | 18.8% | 0.0% |
| Cubs | Home | 30.8% | 15.3% | 13.9% | LH | 29.2% | 18.4% | 6.1% | L7Days | 40.4% | 24.4% | 27.8% |
| Dodgers | Home | 35.9% | 16.0% | 22.2% | RH | 35.2% | 13.4% | 20.3% | L7Days | 36.2% | 18.8% | 22.1% |
| White Sox | Road | 29.2% | 14.2% | 11.1% | RH | 27.8% | 13.1% | 8.1% | L7Days | 36.2% | 21.9% | 17.1% |
| Cardinals | Road | 34.3% | 10.4% | 17.9% | LH | 35.0% | 5.2% | 20.6% | L7Days | 43.9% | 5.2% | 29.1% |
| Rays | Home | 36.5% | 14.6% | 17.3% | RH | 36.5% | 17.5% | 18.5% | L7Days | 43.8% | 21.4% | 31.4% |
| Padres | Road | 30.8% | 16.1% | 10.0% | RH | 29.0% | 14.8% | 6.6% | L7Days | 26.6% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| Nationals | Home | 33.7% | 16.2% | 16.8% | RH | 32.0% | 14.6% | 14.5% | L7Days | 31.1% | 11.1% | 8.1% |
| Marlins | Road | 30.1% | 13.9% | 9.7% | RH | 31.2% | 12.8% | 11.3% | L7Days | 33.3% | 14.6% | 12.1% |
| Mariners | Road | 29.6% | 10.7% | 11.3% | RH | 30.6% | 11.9% | 12.0% | L7Days | 26.5% | 7.5% | 2.7% |
| Reds | Road | 28.6% | 11.3% | 6.9% | RH | 29.0% | 11.9% | 8.6% | L7Days | 28.7% | 14.7% | 8.4% |
| Braves | Home | 31.6% | 13.9% | 13.7% | RH | 30.9% | 11.6% | 12.4% | L7Days | 32.6% | 16.9% | 14.4% |
| Phillies | Home | 30.9% | 13.7% | 9.7% | RH | 29.5% | 10.7% | 7.5% | L7Days | 31.0% | 7.9% | 11.7% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.6 SwStr% – 2.14 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 26.1% | 10.5% | 2.49 | 31.3% | 11.5% | 2.72 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 38.6% | 16.4% | 2.35 | 38.4% | 16.9% | 2.27 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 17.4% | 7.3% | 2.38 | 17.4% | 7.3% | 2.38 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 19.3% | 9.4% | 2.05 | 22.4% | 9.2% | 2.43 |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | 22.3% | 9.7% | 2.30 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.06 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.99 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.10 |
| Jarred Cosart | SDG | 12.3% | 8.3% | 1.48 | 14.3% | 8.3% | 1.72 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 16.1% | 8.2% | 1.96 | 18.0% | 8.3% | 2.17 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 9.9% | 7.3% | 1.36 | 8.9% | 6.3% | 1.41 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 27.8% | 12.4% | 2.24 | 27.8% | 12.4% | 2.24 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 22.2% | 8.0% | 2.78 | 24.3% | 9.1% | 2.67 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 16.4% | 8.7% | 1.89 | 14.8% | 8.7% | 1.70 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 20.2% | 7.6% | 2.66 | 21.0% | 8.0% | 2.63 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla | CIN | 17.5% | 15.2% | 1.15 | 13.8% | 14.8% | 0.93 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 28.0% | 11.0% | 2.55 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 2.14 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 19.5% | 8.8% | 2.22 | 21.4% | 9.1% | 2.35 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 16.0% | 6.6% | 2.42 | 14.9% | 6.7% | 2.22 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 18.8% | 9.5% | 1.98 | 18.8% | 9.5% | 1.98 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 19.2% | 8.5% | 2.26 | 21.7% | 8.9% | 2.44 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 17.5% | 8.2% | 2.13 | 17.4% | 9.2% | 1.89 |
| Randall Delgado | ARI | 21.2% | 10.5% | 2.02 | 26.1% | 15.0% | 1.74 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 24.5% | 8.1% | 3.02 | 30.0% | 8.5% | 3.53 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 20.6% | 10.4% | 1.98 | 22.6% | 11.1% | 2.04 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 16.2% | 6.9% | 2.35 | 9.4% | 6.3% | 1.49 |
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 21.4% | 6.7% | 3.19 | 21.4% | 6.7% | 3.19 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 17.9% | 9.9% | 1.81 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 1.81 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 19.2% | 8.7% | 2.21 | 21.4% | 9.8% | 2.18 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 27.5% | 9.0% | 3.06 | 27.5% | 8.4% | 3.27 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 14.0% | 7.4% | 1.89 | 8.5% | 5.1% | 1.67 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 18.6% | 9.5% | 1.96 | 19.7% | 10.7% | 1.84 |
Jeremy Hellickson in the only outlier on the late slate with more than a few starts and the SwStr% is still low enough that he garners no interest.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.14 ERA – 4.20 SIERA – 4.15 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 4.26 | 3.6 | -0.66 | 3.46 | -0.8 | 4.04 | -0.22 | 4.16 | -0.10 | 4.25 | 3.17 | -1.08 | 2.99 | -1.26 | 4.58 | 0.33 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 2.19 | 2.15 | -0.04 | 2.25 | 0.06 | 1.62 | -0.57 | 1.23 | -0.96 | 3.25 | 2.15 | -1.1 | 2.26 | -0.99 | 1.92 | -1.33 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 3.52 | 4.83 | 1.31 | 4.59 | 1.07 | 3.03 | -0.49 | 3.52 | 0.00 | 3.52 | 4.83 | 1.31 | 4.59 | 1.07 | 3.03 | -0.49 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 4.81 | 4.72 | -0.09 | 4.73 | -0.08 | 4.03 | -0.78 | 4.34 | -0.47 | 5.54 | 4.27 | -1.27 | 4.46 | -1.08 | 4.49 | -1.05 |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | 4.87 | 4.95 | 0.08 | 4.62 | -0.25 | 4.75 | -0.12 | 4.01 | -0.86 | 4.91 | 5.52 | 0.61 | 4.97 | 0.06 | 4.99 | 0.08 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 3 | 3.37 | 0.37 | 3.48 | 0.48 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 3.90 | 0.90 | 2.93 | 3.28 | 0.35 | 3.34 | 0.41 | 2.12 | -0.81 |
| Jarred Cosart | SDG | 2.7 | 5.41 | 2.71 | 5.06 | 2.36 | 3.78 | 1.08 | 5.58 | 2.88 | 1.8 | 3.96 | 2.16 | 4.06 | 2.26 | 3.03 | 1.23 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 6.2 | 5.05 | -1.15 | 5.54 | -0.66 | 4.9 | -1.3 | 7.26 | 1.06 | 7.2 | 4.73 | -2.47 | 5.43 | -1.77 | 5.95 | -1.25 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 3.44 | 5.48 | 2.04 | 5.5 | 2.06 | 5.31 | 1.87 | 5.38 | 1.94 | 4.91 | 5.51 | 0.6 | 5.27 | 0.36 | 6.62 | 1.71 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 0.59 | 3.18 | 2.59 | 4.17 | 3.58 | 2.05 | 1.46 | 2.44 | 1.85 | 0.59 | 3.18 | 2.59 | 4.17 | 3.58 | 2.05 | 1.46 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 3.92 | 4.41 | 0.49 | 4.58 | 0.66 | 3.85 | -0.07 | 3.85 | -0.07 | 2.38 | 4.02 | 1.64 | 4.16 | 1.78 | 2.53 | 0.15 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 5.47 | 5.27 | -0.2 | 5.54 | 0.07 | 5.26 | -0.21 | 6.41 | 0.94 | 7.18 | 5.44 | -1.74 | 5.87 | -1.31 | 6.11 | -1.07 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 3.35 | 4.32 | 0.97 | 4.04 | 0.69 | 4.32 | 0.97 | 5.55 | 2.20 | 1.82 | 4.2 | 2.38 | 3.88 | 2.06 | 3.44 | 1.62 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla | CIN | 6.38 | 4.82 | -1.56 | 4.91 | -1.47 | 5.98 | -0.4 | 4.77 | -1.61 | 6.08 | 5.08 | -1 | 4.85 | -1.23 | 6.11 | 0.03 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 3.64 | 3.14 | -0.5 | 2.86 | -0.78 | 3.56 | -0.08 | 2.62 | -1.02 | 3.33 | 3.91 | 0.58 | 3.57 | 0.24 | 3.81 | 0.48 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 3 | 3.53 | 0.53 | 3.34 | 0.34 | 3.17 | 0.17 | 3.89 | 0.89 | 2.43 | 3.51 | 1.08 | 3.47 | 1.04 | 3.28 | 0.85 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 3.71 | 4.88 | 1.17 | 4.43 | 0.72 | 3.88 | 0.17 | 4.35 | 0.64 | 3.77 | 4.66 | 0.89 | 4.32 | 0.55 | 3.45 | -0.32 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 2.43 | 4.09 | 1.66 | 3.88 | 1.45 | 3.47 | 1.04 | 4.14 | 1.71 | 2.43 | 4.1 | 1.67 | 3.88 | 1.45 | 3.47 | 1.04 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 5.37 | 4.64 | -0.73 | 4.89 | -0.48 | 4.63 | -0.74 | 7.80 | 2.43 | 4.97 | 4.79 | -0.18 | 4.99 | 0.02 | 4.1 | -0.87 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 2.03 | 3.88 | 1.85 | 3.62 | 1.59 | 3.18 | 1.15 | 3.66 | 1.63 | 2.81 | 4.23 | 1.42 | 3.93 | 1.12 | 4.06 | 1.25 |
| Randall Delgado | ARI | 4.05 | 3.38 | -0.67 | 3.78 | -0.27 | 3.75 | -0.3 | 3.44 | -0.61 | 2.08 | 2.82 | 0.74 | 3.25 | 1.17 | 2.23 | 0.15 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 2.77 | 4.04 | 1.27 | 4.26 | 1.49 | 5.42 | 2.65 | 7.41 | 4.64 | 1.8 | 2.63 | 0.83 | 3.28 | 1.48 | 3.83 | 2.03 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 4.01 | 4.2 | 0.19 | 4.38 | 0.37 | 5.37 | 1.36 | 5.87 | 1.86 | 3.41 | 4.19 | 0.78 | 4.18 | 0.77 | 4.93 | 1.52 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 6.75 | 4.17 | -2.58 | 4.2 | -2.55 | 4.56 | -2.19 | 7.60 | 0.85 | 8.14 | 4.82 | -3.32 | 5.05 | -3.09 | 5.37 | -2.77 |
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 1.29 | 3.54 | 2.25 | 3.64 | 2.35 | 4.03 | 2.74 | 3.78 | 2.49 | 1.29 | 3.54 | 2.25 | 3.64 | 2.35 | 4.03 | 2.74 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 3.97 | 4.16 | 0.19 | 4.04 | 0.07 | 4.75 | 0.78 | 3.93 | -0.04 | 3.97 | 4.17 | 0.2 | 4.04 | 0.07 | 4.75 | 0.78 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 4.73 | 4.56 | -0.17 | 4.37 | -0.36 | 4.26 | -0.47 | 3.63 | -1.10 | 5.74 | 4.9 | -0.84 | 4.56 | -1.18 | 4.91 | -0.83 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 6.65 | 3.54 | -3.11 | 3.42 | -3.23 | 4.64 | -2.01 | 3.26 | -3.39 | 6.83 | 3.59 | -3.24 | 3.38 | -3.45 | 5.13 | -1.7 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 6.04 | 5.12 | -0.92 | 5.36 | -0.68 | 5.64 | -0.4 | 5.49 | -0.55 | 6.2 | 6.13 | -0.07 | 6.3 | 0.1 | 6.43 | 0.23 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 5.09 | 4.66 | -0.43 | 4.04 | -1.05 | 5.22 | 0.13 | 3.80 | -1.29 | 6.08 | 5.09 | -0.99 | 4.21 | -1.87 | 5.4 | -0.68 |
Charlie Morton has a .336 BABIP and 19.4 HR/FB. While he does have a career BABIP (.313) over .300, this is a pitcher that does now profile differently, but not really better in terms of batted ball and contact. He should see some improvement, but may have to make adjustments to quell hard contact to get much further.
Kyle Hendricks is beating his estimators this year, the same as he did last (through BABIP and strand rate), but not in a way that builds as much confidence. So far this year, he’s generating much harder contact, yet has maintained a BABIP in the .250 range and an 80.3 LOB%, while the defense has declined a bit from an historic effort last year. Part of that is expected regression, while part of it is a few different players manning positions.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.0 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 0.275 | 0.336 | 0.061 | 48.9% | 0.252 | 2.8% | 84.0% | 87.6 | 5.00% | 3.10% | 140 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 0.310 | 0.265 | -0.045 | 38.1% | 0.209 | 10.9% | 73.4% | 86.8 | 6.60% | 3.70% | 136 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 0.303 | 0.327 | 0.024 | 42.9% | 0.286 | 7.1% | 92.5% | 86.7 | 2.00% | 1.40% | 49 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 0.302 | 0.360 | 0.058 | 41.6% | 0.234 | 6.3% | 88.2% | 89.3 | 7.90% | 5.40% | 140 |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | 0.281 | 0.339 | 0.058 | 43.2% | 0.252 | 2.9% | 84.9% | 87.7 | 7.00% | 4.40% | 114 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 0.274 | 0.235 | -0.039 | 54.9% | 0.134 | 0.0% | 81.7% | 85.3 | 8.30% | 6.30% | 84 |
| Jarred Cosart | SDG | 0.301 | 0.310 | 0.009 | 56.1% | 0.195 | 20.0% | 87.5% | 87.1 | 4.80% | 3.50% | 42 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 0.296 | 0.353 | 0.057 | 35.5% | 0.213 | 9.8% | 90.0% | 89.2 | 7.70% | 5.70% | 142 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 0.291 | 0.205 | -0.086 | 33.9% | 0.212 | 13.5% | 86.5% | 85.9 | 8.20% | 6.90% | 170 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 0.264 | 0.118 | -0.146 | 38.2% | 0.059 | 21.1% | 80.0% | 87 | 2.90% | 1.90% | 34 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 0.261 | 0.271 | 0.01 | 38.4% | 0.176 | 15.7% | 90.7% | 86.3 | 5.00% | 3.30% | 161 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.283 | 0.293 | 0.01 | 32.3% | 0.232 | 7.2% | 87.4% | 85.7 | 7.60% | 5.50% | 158 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 0.298 | 0.256 | -0.042 | 51.6% | 0.188 | 13.2% | 89.1% | 85.4 | 3.80% | 2.70% | 131 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla | CIN | 0.271 | 0.250 | -0.021 | 40.4% | 0.231 | 10.5% | 77.8% | 84 | 7.10% | 5.00% | 56 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 0.283 | 0.280 | -0.003 | 51.6% | 0.205 | 8.8% | 87.5% | 88.6 | 8.80% | 5.70% | 125 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 0.305 | 0.353 | 0.048 | 61.3% | 0.179 | 5.6% | 90.5% | 87.5 | 6.30% | 4.70% | 174 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 0.281 | 0.335 | 0.054 | 43.9% | 0.274 | 10.6% | 90.5% | 86.8 | 6.00% | 4.40% | 168 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 0.318 | 0.279 | -0.039 | 44.8% | 0.207 | 10.0% | 85.9% | 87.2 | 6.70% | 5.10% | 89 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 0.305 | 0.314 | 0.009 | 37.0% | 0.212 | 5.8% | 88.4% | 90.2 | 11.40% | 8.10% | 167 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 0.285 | 0.244 | -0.041 | 53.7% | 0.191 | 2.3% | 89.8% | 86.9 | 4.90% | 3.80% | 164 |
| Randall Delgado | ARI | 0.282 | 0.275 | -0.007 | 47.6% | 0.146 | 9.7% | 88.1% | 86.3 | 10.70% | 8.00% | 84 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 0.296 | 0.323 | 0.027 | 40.6% | 0.156 | 7.1% | 78.6% | 85.8 | 8.80% | 5.70% | 34 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 0.275 | 0.267 | -0.008 | 36.4% | 0.188 | 7.2% | 86.0% | 89 | 11.40% | 8.30% | 158 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 0.319 | 0.364 | 0.045 | 57.0% | 0.207 | 6.7% | 89.0% | 86.9 | 5.10% | 3.80% | 137 |
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 0.292 | 0.211 | -0.081 | 40.0% | 0.3 | 0.0% | 96.9% | 87.9 | 5.00% | 3.60% | 20 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 0.288 | 0.254 | -0.034 | 56.3% | 0.141 | 0.0% | 88.0% | 89.1 | 5.60% | 4.20% | 71 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.293 | 0.284 | -0.009 | 46.0% | 0.213 | 10.2% | 86.2% | 86.3 | 5.20% | 3.70% | 154 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0.302 | 0.342 | 0.04 | 41.0% | 0.23 | 13.6% | 85.1% | 90.7 | 12.90% | 8.30% | 124 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 0.306 | 0.268 | -0.038 | 44.8% | 0.161 | 17.6% | 89.3% | 85.9 | 5.70% | 4.40% | 87 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 0.284 | 0.271 | -0.013 | 56.0% | 0.227 | 3.1% | 90.1% | 85.7 | 5.20% | 3.60% | 153 |
Daniel Norris allows too much hard contact and it shows up in his BABIP and line LD rate rather than his 8.3 HR/FB, which is why only his FIP is far removed from his ERA.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
I’m really not as comfortable with the tier system today. It feels like the top two on a point per dollar basis with a gap to the next group, encompassing the second and third tiers of closely grouped together pitchers before a fourth tier I’d rather not even have tonight. I’d prefer to think of it that way tonight. Sale & Erasmo would probably be my two pitcher combination in most instances outside ownership concerns on two pitcher sites tonight.
Value Tier One
Chris Sale (1) is all the awesome, but no other pitcher is within $3.5K of his DK cost and he’s not necessarily in a great spot. He’s not yet peak Kershaw.
Erasmo Ramirez is probably not going to win you any GPPs on his own, but he has done quality work in the time he has been in there and should be fine with a decent chance to be better on a point per dollar basis. Perhaps 10 more pitches tonight could get him through six innings if we’re lucky. His average cost is just $6K between the sites, but he’s obviously a more favorable play as an SP2, potentially paired with the guy above on DraftKings.
Value Tier Two
Luis Severino (2) has taken a step back over the last month, but still has the night best K-BB (21.2%) in the majors. Offenses may have begun to figure him out and lay off the stuff out of the strike zone, but the Kansas City offense hasn’t figured much of anything out this season.
Value Tier Three
Charlie Morton may have top five strikeout potential tonight at a reasonable price and, although the matchup isn’t that bad, his hard contact issues against the offense that hits the ball harder than any other team makes for some concern.
Kyle Hendricks has gotten by on lesser stuff this year so far, but the good news is that the velocity was up a tick in his last start. There are still many concerns considering the quality of contact allowed with just an average strikeout guy for $8.5K or more, but this is a pure matchup play. The Giants don’t strike out a ton (more than they have in the past though), but this may be the top run prevention spot of the night.
Rich Hill hasn’t come out of the gate as strongly as last season, but may have a great matchup and could get to 90 pitches (six innings) for less than $9K.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Daniel Norris is probably not an arm I would trust tonight, but he only costs $6.5K in a spot that may not be as bad as it looks. The Astros should be better against LHP going forward. He’s listed here because he’s probably next in line, but I’d be willing to scrap the entire fourth tier today and remain on the pitchers above.
Robert Gsellman has amassed plenty of concerns, but is at home facing the Padres at a low cost, which we’ll call a top three matchup on the slate (along with Cardinals & Giants – that feels so weird to type).
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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