Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, April 14th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | CHC | 127 | 4.11 | 4.27 | 1.46 | 38.10% | 18.7% | 7.0% | 0.71 | 46.1% |
| Aaron Nola | PHI | WAS | 117 | 4.77 | 3.27 | 1.32 | 50.00% | 25.3% | 6.1% | 0.77 | 55.2% |
| Michael Wacha | STL | NYY | 144 | 4.94 | 4.26 | 1.44 | 33.33% | 19.1% | 7.3% | 0.94 | 46.7% |
| Wade Miley | BAL | TOR | 171 | 5.21 | 4.29 | 1.43 | 30.00% | 19.4% | 7.6% | 1.32 | 46.9% |
| Daniel Norris | DET | CLE | 75.2 | 3.45 | 4.1 | 1.41 | 23.08% | 22.2% | 7.6% | 1.19 | 39.0% |
| Chris Archer | TBR | BOS | 216 | 3.92 | 3.5 | 1.23 | 33.33% | 27.1% | 7.8% | 1.25 | 48.1% |
| Tommy Milone | MIL | CIN | 75.1 | 5.97 | 4.58 | 1.58 | 16.67% | 15.5% | 6.7% | 1.79 | 44.4% |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | MIA | 196.2 | 2.47 | 2.85 | 1.12 | 60.00% | 29.6% | 5.4% | 0.50 | 52.0% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDP | ATL | 154 | 5.03 | 4.36 | 1.44 | 27.27% | 18.6% | 8.6% | 0.94 | 48.7% |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | MIN | |||||||||
| J.C. Ramirez | LAA | KCR | |||||||||
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | OAK | 182 | 4.25 | 3.74 | 1.23 | 50.00% | 20.3% | 6.8% | 1.04 | 57.8% |
| Martin Perez | TEX | SEA | 210 | 4.29 | 5.1 | 1.43 | 48.48% | 12.5% | 9.2% | 0.81 | 52.5% |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | LAD | 170.1 | 4.23 | 4.06 | 1.25 | 50.00% | 20.2% | 6.0% | 1.27 | 46.3% |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | SFG | 125 | 3.96 | 3.88 | 1.32 | 52.63% | 20.9% | 6.3% | 1.01 | 49.1% |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | PIT | 196 | 2.25 | 3.69 | 0.98 | 63.33% | 22.9% | 5.9% | 0.78 | 48.3% |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | PHI | 161.2 | 3.56 | 3.22 | 1.09 | 58.33% | 29.7% | 7.2% | 0.84 | 40.9% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | STL | 207.1 | 3.39 | 3.85 | 1.13 | 58.06% | 20.4% | 5.0% | 1.04 | 47.9% |
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | BAL | 199 | 2.94 | 4.03 | 1.16 | 66.67% | 20.4% | 8.1% | 0.68 | 53.6% |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | DET | 195.2 | 4.32 | 4.16 | 1.31 | 32.14% | 21.0% | 8.4% | 0.97 | 48.6% |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | TBR | 235.1 | 3.21 | 3.74 | 1.04 | 45.45% | 21.4% | 3.6% | 0.92 | 43.0% |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | MIL | 87.2 | 3.8 | 3.99 | 1.37 | 20.00% | 17.9% | 5.8% | 1.23 | 47.8% |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | NYM | 200.1 | 5.26 | 4.61 | 1.53 | 35.29% | 16.9% | 8.7% | 1.12 | 50.8% |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | SDP | 201 | 3 | 3.95 | 1.05 | 50.00% | 21.9% | 5.6% | 0.99 | 38.1% |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | CHW | 4 | 9 | 7.63 | 2.5 | 0.0% | 13.0% | 0.00 | 36.8% | |
| Danny Duffy | KCR | LAA | 192.2 | 3.41 | 3.57 | 1.15 | 46.15% | 25.4% | 6.0% | 1.35 | 36.8% |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | HOU | 199 | 3.98 | 4.47 | 1.28 | 38.71% | 14.4% | 6.0% | 1.09 | 52.2% |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | TEX | 164.1 | 3.83 | 4.46 | 1.33 | 44.00% | 19.1% | 9.3% | 1.20 | 49.6% |
| Clayton Kershaw | LAD | ARI | 162 | 1.83 | 2.41 | 0.73 | 80.95% | 31.3% | 1.9% | 0.67 | 49.1% |
| Johnny Cueto | SFG | COL | 231.2 | 2.87 | 3.61 | 1.11 | 62.50% | 22.5% | 5.4% | 0.70 | 49.8% |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Clayton Kershaw LAD (vs. ARI, $13500) – Kershaw has a permanent parking space reserved in the All-In section, and though he was asked to park elsewhere in Colorado, he is otherwise stationed here at virtually any cost. Kersh can justify a $15000 price tag on on projected points alone, but his services are at an additional premium given the elevated likelihood that he outscores all other pitchers on the docket, making it almost necessary to have him on the roster in order to win the biggest tournaments.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Noah Syndergaard NYM (at MIA, $11400) – If Kershaw is worth $13500, then it should stand to reason that Thor is worth a price tag that is $2100 less, but it’s a closer call than one might think. That said, Synder is making the case that he deserves to be mentioned right alongside Kershaw, with a career K/BB that exceeds 5.4 and a magnificent start to the 2017 season that includes a ridiculous 0.69 ERA and 16:0 K:BB in 13.0 innings. The Marlins had their way with Mets starter Robert Gsellman yesterday, but despite some hot starts on the Miami offense they pose nary a threat to the reign of the almighty Thor.
Julio Teheran ATL (vs. SD, $8500) – The next run that Teheran gives up will be his first of the season, and the scoreless streak might continue tonight considering he is taking on the lightweight bats of the Padres. The peripheral stats aren’t quite as strong as the pristine ERA might suggest, with 10 strikeouts and four walks in his first 13.0 innings this season. Considering the context and the multitude of pricey starting pitchers on today’s slate, Teheran’s sub-$9k price tag shines for its profit potential.
Chris Archer TB (at BOS, $8400) – Archer has been on a mission through his first two starts of 2017, carrying a 13:4 K:BB in 14.2 innings across two starts. He has gone at least seven innings and allowed just two runs in each of his first two starts. If this were last season, then his. Boston opponent would be enough to knock Archer down to the Call list, but the current iteration of the Boston offense is down one David Ortiz from last season, is still waiting for star youngster Mookie Betts to emerge from his early-season flu and settle into his productive ways, and has lost Jackie Bradley Jr to the disabled list. The price tag is relatively modest, making the high-K potential of Archer an enticing investment.
Michael Wacha STL (at NYY, $6500) – Wacha is a Call-worthy pitcher whose strong performance between the spring and his first start combines with his aggressively-low price tag to vault him to Raise status. His one-run performance against Cincinnati in his first start of the year was consistent with his performance all spring, with respectable K-counts matched up with exceptional walk avoidance and low hit spreads at every turn. Don’t expect an elite point total, but at $6500 he should have no problem posting a profit.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | SIERA | BABIP | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | CHC | 0.385 | 4.69 | 0.289 | 3.66 | 0.286 | 4.27 | 0.343 | 3.58 |
| Aaron Nola | PHI | WAS | 0.308 | 4.42 | 0.309 | 5.08 | 0.262 | 3.27 | 0.34 | 3.01 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | NYY | 0.306 | 3.52 | 0.357 | 6.08 | 0.279 | 4.26 | 0.33 | 3.81 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | TOR | 0.291 | 3.65 | 0.357 | 5.64 | 0.28 | 4.29 | 0.323 | 4.47 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | CLE | 0.297 | 4.87 | 0.339 | 2.93 | 0.27 | 4.1 | 0.326 | 3.91 |
| Chris Archer | TBR | BOS | 0.3 | 4.11 | 0.3 | 3.74 | 0.234 | 3.5 | 0.296 | 3.69 |
| Tommy Milone | MIL | CIN | 0.349 | 4.24 | 0.372 | 6.48 | 0.303 | 4.58 | 0.325 | 5.27 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | MIA | 0.308 | 3 | 0.247 | 2.1 | 0.238 | 2.85 | 0.333 | 2.17 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDP | ATL | 0.332 | 5.74 | 0.317 | 4.28 | 0.268 | 4.36 | 0.314 | 4.1 |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | MIN | ||||||||
| J.C. Ramirez | LAA | KCR | ||||||||
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | OAK | 0.245 | 2.38 | 0.324 | 4.81 | 0.247 | 3.74 | 0.289 | 3.85 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | SEA | 0.244 | 2.03 | 0.341 | 4.82 | 0.265 | 5.1 | 0.289 | 4.48 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | LAD | 0.307 | 4.3 | 0.324 | 4.14 | 0.254 | 4.06 | 0.291 | 4.03 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | SFG | 0.3 | 2.79 | 0.335 | 4.31 | 0.269 | 3.88 | 0.322 | 3.69 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | PIT | 0.28 | 1.94 | 0.238 | 2.48 | 0.205 | 3.69 | 0.249 | 3.28 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | PHI | 0.259 | 3.53 | 0.289 | 3.6 | 0.215 | 3.22 | 0.291 | 2.85 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | STL | 0.295 | 3.17 | 0.284 | 3.58 | 0.241 | 3.85 | 0.279 | 3.66 |
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | BAL | 0.29 | 3.2 | 0.257 | 2.68 | 0.221 | 4.03 | 0.265 | 3.51 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | DET | 0.303 | 4.04 | 0.319 | 4.59 | 0.246 | 4.16 | 0.295 | 3.96 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | TBR | 0.263 | 2.52 | 0.293 | 3.95 | 0.234 | 3.74 | 0.276 | 3.35 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | MIL | 0.383 | 3.51 | 0.299 | 3.98 | 0.275 | 3.99 | 0.312 | 4.21 |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | NYM | 0.347 | 5.4 | 0.336 | 5.1 | 0.28 | 4.61 | 0.319 | 4.52 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | SDP | 0.321 | 3.84 | 0.24 | 2.33 | 0.221 | 3.95 | 0.261 | 3.6 |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | CHW | 1.06 | 0 | 0.412 | 9 | 0.368 | 7.63 | 0.368 | 6.08 |
| Danny Duffy | KCR | LAA | 0.223 | 1.87 | 0.322 | 3.74 | 0.239 | 3.57 | 0.29 | 3.88 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | HOU | 0.32 | 3.6 | 0.302 | 4.4 | 0.263 | 4.47 | 0.284 | 4.36 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | TEX | 0.32 | 3.42 | 0.322 | 4.15 | 0.244 | 4.46 | 0.279 | 4.61 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LAD | ARI | 0.177 | |||||||
| Johnny Cueto | SFG | COL |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Johnny Cueto SF (vs. COL, $11600) – Cueto certainly has raise-worthy talent, but the price tag is so high that it crushes his marginal value and likelihood of turning a profit. The Rockies have a robust offense that functions at sea level as well as in thin air, so with the combination of a tougher opponent, a lower statistical baseline and a higher price tag, it’s hard to imagine how Cueto could rank in the same tier as Syndergaard. Cueto’s case is not helped by the five walks and three homers that he has given up over 12.0 innings thus far this season.
Felix Hernandez SEA (vs. TEX, $8600) – There are so many intriguing pitching options on today’s slate that the King gets a bit lost in the shuffle. He doesn’t quite offer the upside of similarly-priced pitchers Teheran and Archer, while the nightmares from last season might still scare off some potential investors, but those factors also play into what could be low ownership in the King’s services. He has posted an exceptional 12:0 K:BB through his first 11.0 innings of 2017, but the Angels rapped out 10 hits in 6.0 frames against the right-hander and he given up three homers across his first two starts. He provides an opportunity to zig in a direction that most won’t follow and is facing a Texas offense that is without star Adrian Beltre, making Hernandez an enticing target for large tournaments, particularly in two-pitcher formats.
Zack Greinke ARI (at LAD, $8800) – The case for Greinke is very similar to that of King Felix, as a veteran pitcher with a lengthy track record of dominance who is coming off his worst season in the bigs. Even their salaries are eerily similar. Greinke is making a convincing case that he has put last season behind him, with a 2.31 ERA and 10:3 K:BB through his first two starts and 11.2 innings of 2017. One of the common knocks against a Greinke revolves around his per-game pitch count, but the Diamondbacks stretched him out to 106 pitches in just his second start of the year, so Greinke offers some workload assurance at a time when many hurlers are still building stamina.
Danny Duffy KC (vs. LAA, $8900) – Coming into the season, my worry for Duffy was that his peripheral stats – which were completely out of line from his career numbers last year, with extreme improvements in both directions – would regress back to something more resembling his career norms. The lazy analysis would dictate that he will find a middle ground this season, and though his stuff supports the strikeout gains, his delivery suggests that the walk rate was a mirage. So far in 2017, Duffy’s peripherals are right in line with his pre-2016 performance, with a K:BB of 11:5 through his first 13.0 innings, though small sample size relegates the numbers to a mere anecdote. The cost isn’t egregious and the opponent is undaunting, so there are plenty of reasons to roll the dice on Duffy today.
Rick Porcello BOS (vs. TB, $9400) – High hit rates were a part of Porcello’s profile for virtually every season of his career until last year, and in his first two turns of 2017 the hits have come back in full force, leading to a 4.38 ERA despite a sparkling 13:2 K:BB in 12.1 innings. He is likely to be given a long leash and is facing a soft Tampa Bay lineup, elements which help to support a relatively high salary, but the $9400 price tag is being buoyed by last season’s performance and impressive win total, but the Boston offense is not currently as menacing as it was last season and high win totals are very likely to regress, essentially crushing his profit margin.
Aaron Sanchez TOR (vs. BAL, $8200) – Sanchez experienced an epic breakout last season, yet it was one in which the peripheral stats fell short of the improvements in run prevention. This carried over to his first start of 2017, with a one-run start that featured three walks and six Ks against the Rays. The Orioles have a much more robust offense than the Rays, leaving open the possibility of a rough outing for Sanchez, but at such a reasonable price he still offers enough upside and profit potential to justify rostering.
Dallas Keuchel HOU (at OAK, $9600)
Kendall Graveman OAK ($6400)
Masahiro Tanaka NYY (vs. STL, $9100) – Tanaka is impossible to trust until he gets right, and his early-season struggles are hardly reflected in a salary that is weakly discounted. He has already walked six batters in 7.2 innings, plunked two others, and has been blasted to the tune of an 11.74 ERA through two starts. The Cardinals bats are bound to wake up sooner or later, but Tanaka is not necessarily bound to reclaim his status as a low-WHIP ace, and there are several options available today that don’t require owners to cover their eyes and pray for a rebound. Run away.
Trevor Bauer CLE (vs. DET, $6800)
Tyler Anderson COL (at SF, $7400)
Scott Feldman HOU (at CIN, $5800)
Daniel Norris (at CLE, $5500)
Adam Conley MIA (vs. NYM, $6300)
Tommy Milone MIL (at CIN, $4900)
Adalberto Mejia MIN (vs. CHW, $5600)
J.C. Ramirez LAA (at KC, $4000)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Wade Miley BAL (at TOR, $6700)
Martin Perez TEX (at SEA, $6800)
Dylan Covey CHW (at MIN, $4000)