Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, April 22nd
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
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Daily Pitcher Chart
Editor’s Note: Felix Hernandez scratched; Hisashi Iwakuma to start in his place.
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gibson | MIN | WAS | 212.1 | 3.81 | 4.20 | 1.31 | 52.6% | 17.2% | 8.3% | 0.85 | 2.03 |
| Gonzalez | WAS | MIN | 188.2 | 3.58 | 3.77 | 1.38 | 46.7% | 22.4% | 8.9% | 0.43 | 1.89 |
| Harvey | NYM | ATL | 206.2 | 2.96 | 3.38 | 1.06 | 23.7% | 5.3% | 0.83 | 1.32 | |
| Norris | ATL | NYM | 100.1 | 6.64 | 4.26 | 1.59 | 26.7% | 18.4% | 8.3% | 1.61 | 1.28 |
| Moore | TBR | NYY | 81.1 | 4.87 | 4.24 | 1.41 | 19.0% | 7.4% | 1.22 | 1.04 | |
| Sabathia | NYY | TBR | 178 | 4.75 | 4.11 | 1.43 | 25.0% | 18.8% | 7.1% | 1.47 | 1.43 |
| Gray | OAK | TOR | 227.1 | 2.69 | 3.81 | 1.10 | 60.0% | 20.4% | 7.4% | 0.71 | 1.75 |
| Sanchez | TOR | OAK | 112.1 | 2.88 | 4.22 | 1.20 | 17.8% | 11.2% | 0.88 | 2.74 | |
| Tomlin | CLE | DET | 70.2 | 2.93 | 3.36 | 0.83 | 23.1% | 23.3% | 3.0% | 1.78 | 0.82 |
| Verlander | DET | CLE | 149.2 | 3.79 | 3.98 | 1.14 | 35.0% | 21.1% | 6.3% | 0.96 | 0.76 |
| Lester | CHC | CIN | 225.1 | 3.24 | 3.18 | 1.10 | 65.0% | 25.0% | 5.7% | 0.72 | 1.68 |
| Moscot | CIN | CHC | 17.1 | 4.67 | 5.35 | 1.33 | 10.5% | 7.9% | 2.08 | 1.13 | |
| Wright | BOS | HOU | 85.1 | 3.80 | 4.47 | 1.28 | 17.4% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 1.03 | |
| McHugh | HOU | BOS | 216.1 | 4.04 | 3.94 | 1.31 | 42.9% | 19.7% | 6.1% | 0.83 | 1.25 |
| Nola | PHI | MIL | 96.2 | 4.00 | 3.46 | 1.17 | 23.1% | 5.6% | 1.30 | 1.37 | |
| Davies | MIL | PHI | |||||||||
| Perez | TEX | CWS | 97 | 4.27 | 4.30 | 1.42 | 37.5% | 13.8% | 8.5% | 0.46 | 2.72 |
| Quintana | CWS | TEX | 224 | 3.29 | 3.57 | 1.26 | 50.0% | 20.9% | 5.0% | 0.64 | 1.59 |
| Gallardo | BAL | KCR | 200.1 | 3.59 | 4.66 | 1.42 | 50.0% | 15.1% | 8.6% | 0.67 | 1.61 |
| Young | KCR | BAL | 137 | 3.55 | 5.14 | 1.18 | 47.4% | 16.4% | 8.8% | 1.25 | 0.48 |
| Kazmir | LAD | COL | 197 | 3.34 | 4.11 | 1.22 | 63.2% | 20.2% | 7.8% | 1.05 | 1.14 |
| Gray | COL | LAD | |||||||||
| Niese | PIT | ARI | 194.2 | 4.07 | 4.23 | 1.36 | 41.2% | 15.2% | 7.1% | 1.06 | 2.14 |
| Corbin | ARI | PIT | 104.2 | 3.44 | 3.53 | 1.26 | 21.1% | 4.8% | 1.03 | 1.57 | |
| Hernandez | SEA | LAA | 219.2 | 3.32 | 3.46 | 1.18 | 81.0% | 23.3% | 7.9% | 0.94 | 2.11 |
| Tropeano | LAA | SEA | 48.1 | 3.17 | 3.81 | 1.34 | 22.7% | 6.8% | 0.37 | 0.76 | |
| Cosart | MIA | SFG | 80 | 4.72 | 4.82 | 1.41 | 31.6% | 15.7% | 12.2% | 1.12 | 2.32 |
| Samardzija | SFG | MIA | 233.1 | 4.86 | 4.21 | 1.31 | 60.0% | 17.8% | 5.8% | 1.20 | 1.03 |
| Wainwright | STL | SDP | 44.1 | 4.06 | 4.52 | 1.35 | 84.2% | 14.3% | 6.9% | 0.20 | 1.61 |
| Cashner | SDP | STL | 199.2 | 4.42 | 3.98 | 1.44 | 75.0% | 20.7% | 8.2% | 0.90 | 1.55 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Jon Lester CHC (at CIN) – Lester has found a new level of control over the past couple of seasons, with a walk rate of just 2.0 BB/9 since the start of the 2014 season. He’s boringly consistent and consistently excellent, a quality-start machine who strikes out a batter per inning and whose high-powered offense increases the odds of earning points for a win. The southpaw neutralizes Jay Bruce via the platoon, and though Joey Votto hits fellow lefties just fine for his career, he does lose 80 points of OPS and has struggled to a .182/.270/.255 line over the first few weeks of the season. The Reds offense loses a lot of luster with Bruce and Votto both having reduced threat levels, and the shell that remains should be an easy target for Lester. This all-in is more about the floor than the ceiling on a day when there are question marks for the other top arms.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Editor’s Note: Felix Hernandez scratched; Hisashi Iwakuma to start in his place.
Felix Hernandez SEA (at LAA) – The run prevention stats would lead us to believe that King Felix is back to claim his throne atop the heap of American League pitchers, but a look beneath the surface raises more questions that it answers. Hernandez has been uncharacteristically wild, walking five or more batters in two of his three starts and giving away 13 total free passes in the 18.1 innings that he has pitched this season. He had a truly dominant start against the A’s – he gets one of those every April – but in which he struck out 10 and allowed five baserunners across 7.0 blank frames. He was less than stellar in his other two turns, and tonight he faces an Angels club that is led by Mike Trout, whose career slash of .354/.389/.646 is more impressive when considering that Trout has faced Felix 30 more times than any other pitchers in his career.
Matt Harvey NYM (at ATL) – Every game, it seems like Harvey will be cruising along just fine for the first few innings, and then everything unravels within the span of a handful of batters. Pitching coach Dan Warthen thinks that the issues stem from mechanical issues when Harvey is pitching from the stretch, so the right-hander is already working to address the issue. It might take a bit of time to find his release point, but Harvey has the mechanical and physical baselines to encourage rapid improvement, and he might be able to turn the corner in a hurry. His bottom-feeding opponent today will help to catalyze the process.
Gio Gonzalez WAS (vs. MIN) – Coming off his worst season in at least five years, Gio has burst out of the gate with an impressive pair of starts, giving up one run with 12 strikeouts against three walks in his first 13.1 innings pitched. Hit rates can bounce around and thus be unreliable, but Gonzalez was one of the consistently-toughest pitchers to hit prior to last season, not allowing any more than 7.8 H/9 since his 35-inning debut back in 2008, so it is encouraging to see Gio once again keeping safeties to a minimum, with just seven hits allowed in his first 13.1 innings pitched. The Twins have finally started to heat up, but the team’s overall struggles on offense will play into Gio’s favor tonight.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gibson | 0.309 | 3.99 | 0.302 | 3.64 | 0.247 | 0.713 | 0.284 | 4.07 | 0.248 | 0.00 | 17.2% |
| Gonzalez | 0.270 | 3.00 | 0.316 | 3.76 | 0.258 | 0.724 | 0.331 | 3.04 | 0.257 | 0.01 | 22.4% |
| Harvey | 0.296 | 3.45 | 0.247 | 2.49 | 0.256 | 0.682 | 0.278 | 3.13 | 0.225 | 0.01 | 23.7% |
| Norris | 0.388 | 6.79 | 0.369 | 6.47 | 0.243 | 0.707 | 0.332 | 5.04 | 0.294 | 0.00 | 18.4% |
| Moore | 0.326 | 6.08 | 0.349 | 4.37 | 0.255 | 0.743 | 0.322 | 4.42 | 0.278 | 0.01 | 19.0% |
| Sabathia | 0.244 | 4.42 | 0.366 | 4.84 | 0.255 | 0.743 | 0.316 | 4.65 | 0.279 | 0.01 | 18.8% |
| Gray | 0.258 | 1.96 | 0.269 | 3.45 | 0.263 | 0.782 | 0.257 | 3.44 | 0.216 | 0.01 | 20.4% |
| Sanchez | 0.361 | 3.70 | 0.196 | 2.08 | 0.247 | 0.699 | 0.235 | 4.40 | 0.209 | 0.00 | 17.8% |
| Tomlin | 0.206 | 1.64 | 0.347 | 4.45 | 0.268 | 0.735 | 0.202 | 4.35 | 0.196 | 0.02 | 23.3% |
| Verlander | 0.269 | 2.87 | 0.313 | 4.79 | 0.253 | 0.724 | 0.278 | 3.63 | 0.235 | 0.01 | 21.1% |
| Lester | 0.275 | 3.44 | 0.287 | 3.17 | 0.249 | 0.720 | 0.296 | 2.94 | 0.232 | 0.01 | 25.0% |
| Moscot | 0.247 | 0.732 | 0.228 | 6.41 | 0.246 | 0.03 | 10.5% | ||||
| Wright | 0.301 | 4.03 | 0.322 | 3.61 | 0.249 | 0.751 | 0.260 | 4.79 | 0.239 | 0.01 | 17.4% |
| McHugh | 0.300 | 4.19 | 0.327 | 3.89 | 0.262 | 0.735 | 0.318 | 3.55 | 0.266 | 0.01 | 19.7% |
| Nola | 0.342 | 5.00 | 0.279 | 3.41 | 0.256 | 0.708 | 0.291 | 3.87 | 0.246 | 0.01 | 23.1% |
| Davies | 0.244 | 0.678 | |||||||||
| Perez | 0.240 | 2.53 | 0.343 | 4.76 | 0.238 | 0.643 | 0.313 | 3.83 | 0.275 | 0.01 | 13.8% |
| Quintana | 0.276 | 3.66 | 0.320 | 3.19 | 0.255 | 0.735 | 0.329 | 3.06 | 0.268 | 0.01 | 20.9% |
| Gallardo | 0.333 | 4.22 | 0.306 | 2.99 | 0.264 | 0.729 | 0.304 | 3.93 | 0.267 | 0.00 | 15.1% |
| Young | 0.340 | 4.21 | 0.246 | 2.93 | 0.256 | 0.762 | 0.227 | 4.67 | 0.214 | 0.00 | 16.4% |
| Kazmir | 0.336 | 4.86 | 0.289 | 2.82 | 0.255 | 0.686 | 0.274 | 4.08 | 0.235 | 0.01 | 20.2% |
| Gray | 0.246 | 0.731 | |||||||||
| Niese | 0.337 | 2.88 | 0.327 | 4.38 | 0.259 | 0.738 | 0.293 | 4.43 | 0.265 | 0.00 | 15.2% |
| Corbin | 0.241 | 1.54 | 0.343 | 3.98 | 0.250 | 0.688 | 0.320 | 3.52 | 0.269 | 0.01 | 21.1% |
| Hernandez | 0.303 | 3.92 | 0.284 | 2.66 | 0.247 | 0.702 | 0.281 | 3.68 | 0.229 | 0.01 | 23.3% |
| Tropeano | 0.320 | 1.88 | 0.289 | 4.44 | 0.240 | 0.714 | 0.340 | 2.59 | 0.264 | 0.02 | 22.7% |
| Cosart | 0.313 | 4.08 | 0.341 | 5.36 | 0.266 | 0.745 | 0.257 | 5.02 | 0.236 | 0.01 | 15.7% |
| Samardzija | 0.356 | 5.75 | 0.300 | 4.01 | 0.256 | 0.683 | 0.303 | 4.23 | 0.269 | 0.01 | 17.8% |
| Wainwright | 0.321 | 3.50 | 0.319 | 4.44 | 0.242 | 0.681 | 0.313 | 3.15 | 0.269 | 0.01 | 14.3% |
| Cashner | 0.374 | 5.18 | 0.303 | 3.81 | 0.262 | 0.746 | 0.332 | 3.79 | 0.274 | 0.01 | 20.7% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Aaron Sanchez TOR (vs. OAK) – Aaron Sanchez is making an early case for breakout pitcher of 2016, with three turns of run-prevention bliss to start the year. Sanchez has given up exactly one run in each of his start, going 6.0 innings or more in each game while facing some tough opponents of the AL East, including the Red Sox and Yankees. Today he faces a soft Oakland lineup that had Jed Lowrie – owner of a 650 OPS this season – batting in the cleanup spot, and the difference in lineup strength actually vaults Sanchez above his typically-superior counterpart for tonight’s game, A’s pitcher Sonny Gray.
Jose Quintana CWS (vs. TEX) – Quintana has been posted near-copycat performances in each of his three turns this season. He has faced 24 batters in each turn, has registered 17 or 18 outs in all three games, giving up one or two earned runs and striking out 5-7 batters. He has also been very fortunate in terms of opponents in the early going of 2016, having faced the relatively light offenses of the Twins, A’s and Rays thus far on the campaign. The chickens may come home to roost in this one, given the Rangers top-three offense in the AL and Quintana having faced three lineups in the bottom-third of AL run-scoring to this point.
Aaron Nola PHI (at MIL) – The ERA might not show it – he has a 5.68 mark so far in the young season – but the peripheral stats support the notion that Nola’s breakout of 2016 has already begun. He has 23 strikeouts and just three walks so far in 19.0 innings this season, and though his last start was a forgettable seven-run disaster at the hands of the Nats, Nola has struck out at least a half-dozen batters in each of his turns this year. The longball has not particularly kind, as Nola has given up one home run in each game thus far, and that trend could continue in the homer-friendly confines of Miller Park.
Sonny Gray OAK (at TOR) – Gray is a better pitcher in real life than fantasy due to a mediocre strikeout rate that has hung out in the mid-7.0 range in terms of K/9 in each of the last two seasons, and his 7.9 K/9 in the young 2016 season is right in lien with career marks. The Blue Jays haven’t been the powerhouse (yet) this season that they were last year, but with a stacked lineup that has power running throughout, and without the generous foul territory of Oakland to shield him from harm, Gray could be in for a long day – but a short outing – today against Toronto.
Adam Wainwright STL (at SD) – The first few turns of 2016 have been an utter disaster for Wainwright. His modest velocity has given way to relatively-low strikeout rates for Waino over the last several seasons, but his excellent command and run prevention have more than made up for the lack of contributions in the K column. But his ability to keep runs off the scoreboard has turned sour, with even lower velocity than normal and just seven total strikeouts in his 16.1 innings of work this season. Pitch command is his calling card, moving the fastball where he wants on both sides of the plate and burying the curve with consistency, but his inability to locate has led to an unraveling of Wainwright’s fantasy stats, If any offense can get him back on track, it’s that of the Padres, but another clunker would raise the yellow flag of caution.
Matt Moore TB (at NYY) – Moore has been a perennial disappointment, with an excellent debut and top-notch stuff that propelled his early status as one of the top prospects in the game, to a pitcher who couldn’t harness his release point, lost velo and then went under the knife. The Rays will likely be cautious with Moore’s workload, but the early returns suggest that he might finally be ready to live up the hype of his youth, with 21 strikeouts against three walks in his first 18.1 innings of 2016. He saved the best performance for his last outing, whiffing 10 White Sox over 6.1 innings with no walks and two runs allowed. This will be his first away game of 2016, and Moore will want to stay away from the short porches down the lines at new Yankee Stadium.
Patrick Corbin ARI (vs. PIT)
Jeff Samardzija SF (vs. MIA)
Justin Verlander DET (vs. CLE)
Andrew Cashner SD (vs. STL)
Collin McHugh HOU (vs. BAL)
Nick Tropeano LAA (vs. SEA)
Chris Young KC (vs, BAL)
Yovani Gallardo BAL (at KC)
Jon Niese PIT (at ARI)
Martin Perez TEX (at CWS)
CC Sabathia NYY (vs. TB)
Josh Tomlin CLE (at DET)
Kyle Gibson MIN (at WAS)
Zach Davies MIL (vs. PHI)
Steven Wright BOS (at HOU)
Jarred Cosart MIA (at SF)
Bud Norris ATL (vs. NYM)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Scott Kazmir LAD (at COL) – He’s had a rough enough start to the season, but things are about to get a whole lot worse with Kazmir taking the mound for a start tonight at Coors Field. We all know what altitude does to pitchers, but it will be interesting to see the number of gamers in season-long leagues decide to drop Kazmir after this inevitably-ugly performance.
Jon Moscot CIN (vs. CHC)
Jon Gray COL (vs. LAD) – Welcome back from injury, Jon; we’ll start warming up the showers for you around the third inning.
