Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, August 28th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2015-08-31 17:35:08

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Conley	MIA	WAS	27.2	4.88	4.31	1.45		17.8%	8.5%	0.98	1.24
Scherzer	WAS	MIA	391.1	2.99	2.85	1.07	60.0%	28.7%	5.6%	0.83	0.83
Kennedy	SDP	PHI	329	3.78	3.57	1.28	47.6%	23.8%	7.8%	1.15	1.02
Nola	PHI	SDP	42.2	3.59	3.98	1.15		19.4%	6.9%	1.05	1.35
Gray	COL	PIT	16.2	5.94	4.10	1.38		18.9%	6.8%	1.08	1.14
Liriano	PIT	COL	310	3.31	3.46	1.24	12.5%	25.8%	10.4%	0.70	2.04
Boyd	DET	TOR	30.2	7.04	4.60	1.63		15.9%	5.1%	2.35	0.65
Dickey	TOR	DET	382.2	3.95	4.42	1.26	47.6%	16.9%	8.0%	1.08	1.12
Heaney	LAA	CLE	95.2	4.14	4.09	1.19	25.0%	16.9%	5.0%	1.13	1.13
Salazar	CLE	LAA	254.1	3.72	3.22	1.21	12.5%	26.6%	7.2%	1.17	0.99
Volquez	KCR	TBR	351.1	3.20	4.27	1.24	50.0%	17.6%	8.7%	0.72	1.49
Ramirez	TBR	KCR	198.1	4.27	4.25	1.28	27.3%	17.9%	8.1%	1.13	1.20
Owens	BOS	NYM	24	4.50	4.07	1.21		21.2%	7.1%	1.50	0.68
Harvey	NYM	BOS	154	2.57	3.43	1.01		23.2%	5.3%	0.99	1.21
Tanaka	NYY	ATL	251	3.16	3.00	1.04	66.7%	24.4%	4.4%	1.22	1.51
Perez	ATL	NYY	79.1	4.76	5.07	1.54		14.3%	11.1%	0.91	1.56
Gausman	BAL	TEX	186.2	3.86	3.92	1.24	37.5%	19.7%	7.0%	0.82	1.11
Hamels	TEX	BAL	360	3.05	3.35	1.19	58.8%	24.2%	7.2%	0.77	1.49
Walker	SEA	CHW	184.2	4.29	3.69	1.25		22.3%	7.0%	1.17	1.10
Danks	CHW	SEA	333.1	4.81	4.62	1.43	50.0%	15.5%	8.1%	1.16	1.03
Iglesias	CIN	MIL	73.1	3.93	3.34	1.15		25.3%	6.9%	0.86	1.34
Jungmann	MIL	CIN	84.2	2.66	3.76	1.18		22.5%	8.4%	0.32	1.57
Kazmir	HOU	MIN	337.1	3.04	3.71	1.14	63.2%	21.5%	7.1%	0.72	1.22
Gibson	MIN	HOU	331.2	4.23	4.19	1.32	52.6%	15.3%	7.8%	0.76	2.05
Gray	OAK	ARI	394.1	2.65	3.55	1.10	60.0%	20.8%	7.5%	0.64	1.98
Anderson	ARI	OAK	242.2	4.15	4.07	1.34	40.0%	18.7%	7.1%	1.11	1.21
Hammel	CHC	LAD	313.1	3.42	3.41	1.11	47.4%	23.3%	5.7%	1.21	1.00
Kershaw	LAD	CHC	375.1	2.01	2.17	0.89	66.7%	32.2%	4.4%	0.50	1.87
Wacha	STL	SFG	258.1	2.96	3.75	1.15	53.3%	20.8%	6.7%	0.59	1.29
Leake	SFG	STL	363.1	3.59	3.68	1.20	45.0%	17.6%	5.8%	0.97	2.01

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Clayton Kershaw LAD (vs. CHC) – The Cubs are en fuego but Kershaw is matchup-proof, and the fact that he’s facing the most strikeout-prone ballclub in the National League just means that he is likely to pin double-digit K’s to tonight’s dominant stat-line.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Max Scherzer WAS (vs. MIA) – Scherzer is typically an All-in candidate and the fact that he is playing against the woeful lineup of the Marlins should seal that decision, but his recent struggles have clouded the issue. Scherzer has had a rough month of August, at least relatively, having given up three or more runs in four straight turns. He has posted enough strikeouts in those games to buffer some of the lapses in run prevention, but considering his ultra-high price tag the performances have been disappointing. He could definitely rebound in this game, as he finished July with seven shutout frames against these Marlins in Miami and the last four contests have featured a difficult run of bat-heavy opponents, but he gets left out of All-In status until he rediscovers some of the dominance of the first half.

Francisco Liriano PIT (vs. COL) – Liriano has some extreme platoon splits for his career and has absolutely dominated left-handed batters, with a sub-600 OPS against whether looking at his entire resume or just this season. With Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez compromised by platoon splits, Nolan Arenado forgetting how to hit left-handers, and Troy Tulowitzki playing ball north of the border, the Rockies are primed to get owned when a southpaw is on the mound, particularly when playing on the road.

Matt Harvey NYM (at BOS) – Another pitcher who typically teeters on the edge of Raise or All-In status, Harvey has rebounded from a rough stretch midseason to dominate once again, as his last five starts featured a 1.01 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 35.7 innings pitched. However, he gets bumped down due to his opponent, as the Red Sox have just been bludgeoning baseballs for the past couple of weeks and seem to have no regard for the quality of the pitchers that they are facing. This is what the Sox paid for in the off-season, but interestingly it’s not the expensive free agents that have produced – both Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval have struggled at the plate this year – but the young/inexpensive players on the roster such as Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts. Harvey might be able to overwhelm the kids with his stuff, but this ranking is a hedge that he’ll put together a good-not-great stat-line in tonight’s game.

Masahiro Tanaka NYY (at ATL) – If this were 2014, then Tanaka’s placement would A) be higher on this list, and B) not be a surprise in the Raise category. What he lacks is the occasional dominant start, as he seems to be surviving the league in his second season rather than attacking hitters with confidence. Some would say that he’s “nibbling,” but however you chew it the right-hander has not backed up last season’s performance particularly well. The busted elbow probably has a lot to do with it, and Tanaka deserves credit for pitching effectively through the injury, but it’s not likely to hear on its own and DFS managers need to take note about the value of today’s Tanaka. The good news is that he is facing a weak opponent today, garnering an interleague matchup with a Braves team that (aside from Nick Markakis) is largely unexposed to the trap-door splitter of Tanaka.

Sonny Gray OAK (at ARI) – The Diamondbacks have been a rough bunch for opposing pitchers to face this season, with 4.50 runs-per-game to tie them with the Rockies for tops in the National League. Gray will have to hit for himself in the NL ballpark, which could result in an early lift for a pitcher who has completed the seventh inning in seven of his last nine starts. Gray has a 1.58 ERA over his last six games, overcoming the rough patch that dogged his stat-line around the All-Star break, but if Arizona keeps doing what they’ve been doing on offense then next time around we could be talking about how Gray has given up three or more runs in each of his last three starts.

Cole Hamels TEX (vs. BAL) – The impetus to trade for Cole Hamels had more to do with future seasons than 2015, but Hamels has not made for an easy welcome to his new ballclub with a 4.73 ERA through his first four games. He has tossed six or more innings in each start but also given up two or more runs in each. His number of runs allowed is counting down like a shuttle launch, and if everything stays in sequence then he should be in for a one-run outing tonight against the Orioles, but the fact that he has a 6.00 ERA over his last seven starts (with his no-hitter sandwiched in the middle) builds a pessimistic case for the numbers to stay in line.

Michael Wacha STL (at SF) – The strikeouts aren’t overly impressive whether looking at his game log or his season tally, but Wacha consistently keeps the runs off the scoreboard. He has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his last five games, completing six or more frames in each contest, and Wacha is usually good for a half-dozen K’s to bolster his point total.

Scott Kazmir HOU (at MIN) – Kaz has a hiccup against the Rays, a team that happens to mash southpaws, but otherwise he has been just as impenetrable for the Astros this season as he was for the A’s. Aside from that forgettable six-run outing against Tampa, Kazmir has been dinged with one or zero earned runs in seven of his last nine games, the exceptions being the Rays game and a two-run outing against the Giants, though it’s worth noting that the two outlier outings occurred within his last three games.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Conley	0.415	3.18	0.327	5.32	0.244	0.688	0.325	4.21	0.28	58.00	17.8%
Scherzer	0.300	3.43	0.250	2.45	0.248	0.665	0.296	2.78	0.222	106.07	28.7%
Kennedy	0.321	3.79	0.325	3.76	0.252	0.687	0.302	3.86	0.246	100.00	23.8%
Nola	0.322	4.02	0.274	3.33	0.246	0.689	0.262	4.04	0.23	92.00	19.4%
Gray	0.291	4.15	0.346	7.88	0.261	0.723	0.308	4.09	0.265	66.50	18.9%
Liriano	0.295	3.86	0.279	3.17	0.253	0.670	0.282	3.36	0.215	95.17	25.8%
Boyd	0.522	13.50	0.362	4.50	0.285	0.829	0.350	5.87	0.331	78.43	15.9%
Dickey	0.308	3.34	0.327	4.46	0.272	0.752	0.268	4.47	0.241	102.77	16.9%
Heaney	0.251	2.12	0.339	5.05	0.259	0.710	0.283	4.24	0.255	82.28	16.9%
Salazar	0.304	3.67	0.308	3.76	0.249	0.708	0.302	3.60	0.238	98.74	26.6%
Volquez	0.303	3.09	0.295	3.29	0.242	0.681	0.270	3.96	0.233	95.40	17.6%
Ramirez	0.285	3.44	0.356	5.40	0.272	0.744	0.274	4.50	0.244	70.70	17.9%
Owens	0.331	8.31	0.312	3.66	0.239	0.702	0.269	4.42	0.239	95.50	21.2%
Harvey	0.306	3.58	0.237	1.67	0.264	0.730	0.255	3.43	0.215	98.04	23.2%
Tanaka	0.284	2.95	0.299	3.37	0.256	0.682	0.273	3.53	0.229	97.84	24.4%
Perez	0.375	6.16	0.309	3.48	0.250	0.735	0.305	4.95	0.273	79.00	14.3%
Gausman	0.301	3.22	0.303	4.71	0.259	0.735	0.290	3.60	0.245	83.05	19.7%
Hamels	0.296	2.00	0.291	3.33	0.262	0.716	0.299	3.27	0.236	104.43	24.2%
Walker	0.308	3.63	0.317	5.13	0.255	0.704	0.295	3.98	0.247	88.21	22.3%
Danks	0.300	4.38	0.360	4.96	0.259	0.707	0.297	4.62	0.269	99.71	15.5%
Iglesias	0.342	5.58	0.255	2.74	0.258	0.711	0.290	3.41	0.227	86.14	25.3%
Jungmann	0.281	1.73	0.285	3.56	0.247	0.702	0.296	2.99	0.228	99.07	22.5%
Kazmir	0.302	3.15	0.274	3.01	0.258	0.713	0.276	3.35	0.228	94.66	21.5%
Gibson	0.308	3.98	0.309	4.50	0.241	0.727	0.287	4.00	0.255	95.30	15.3%
Gray	0.265	2.36	0.265	2.99	0.266	0.736	0.260	3.36	0.216	100.43	20.8%
Anderson	0.322	3.81	0.343	4.43	0.253	0.704	0.308	4.18	0.268	91.77	18.7%
Hammel	0.300	2.88	0.298	3.84	0.251	0.750	0.274	3.80	0.231	91.59	23.3%
Kershaw	0.233	1.81	0.238	2.07	0.242	0.699	0.282	1.96	0.198	102.29	32.2%
Wacha	0.266	2.95	0.290	2.97	0.268	0.741	0.279	3.18	0.229	94.47	20.8%
Leake	0.336	4.05	0.282	3.20	0.260	0.722	0.282	3.91	0.249	96.07	17.6%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Aaron Nola PHI (vs. SD) – Nola ascends to the top of the Call list due largely to his opponent, as though the Padres have picked it up a little bit of late, the .298 wOBA and 683 OPS on the season are better indicators of the Friars’ offensive struggles this season. Nola has pitched reasonably well for the Phillies, especially considering that we’re talking about a rookie, and his low counts of runs, walks and strikeouts match what the right-hander did in the minors.

Trevor Bauer CLE (vs. LAA) – His volatility merits a lower ranking, but the strikeout upside is too big to ignore and thus Bauer’s DFS stock gets a boost.

Taijuan Walker SEA (at CHW) – The streaky Walker is on one of his bad runs, having given up 22 hits over his last three outings and 17.3 innings, and if we go back further we see that over the last nine starts Walker has a 5.37 ERA in 55.3 innings, though his 49 strikeouts against 10 walks offers a ray of optimistic light as he heads into Chicago to face the soft lineup of the White Sox.

Ian Kennedy SD (at PHI)

Kevin Gausman BAL (at TEX)

Edinson Volquez KC (at TB)

Mike Leake SF (vs. STL)

Andrew Heaney LAA (at CLE)

Jason Hammel CHC (vs. LAD)

Jonathan Gray COL (at PIT)

Taylor Jungmann MIL (vs. CIN)

Raisel Iglesias CIN (at MIL)

Chase Anderson ARI (vs. OAK)

Erasmo Ramirez TB (vs. KC)

Kyle Gibson MIN (vs. HOU)