Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, July 29th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-07-30 03:19:58

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Iwakuma	SEA	CHC	257	3.75	3.93	1.17	60.0%	19.6%	5.0%	1.30	1.28
Lester	CHC	SEA	327.1	3.24	3.41	1.12	65.0%	24.6%	6.3%	0.91	1.56
Gausman	BAL	TOR	212.2	4.02	3.73	1.25	37.5%	22.2%	5.8%	1.40	1.20
Estrada	TOR	BAL	291.1	3.06	4.49	1.03	27.8%	20.0%	8.2%	1.17	0.64
McHugh	HOU	DET	317.2	3.99	3.93	1.33	42.9%	20.8%	6.4%	0.93	1.26
Boyd	DET	HOU	102	6.26	4.56	1.46		18.2%	7.7%	2.03	0.78
Chatwood	COL	NYM	103.2	3.65	4.81	1.37	25.0%	15.1%	10.5%	0.61	2.42
Matz	NYM	COL	142.2	3.09	3.63	1.24		22.7%	6.1%	0.95	1.66
Odorizzi	TBR	NYY	288	3.66	3.97	1.18	36.8%	21.9%	6.8%	1.12	0.89
Graveman	OAK	CLE	226.1	4.10	4.51	1.40		15.0%	7.3%	1.11	1.78
Bauer	CLE	OAK	287	4.20	4.19	1.29	38.5%	22.4%	10.0%	1.03	1.16
Leake	STL	MIA	315	3.91	4.01	1.19	45.0%	16.2%	5.1%	1.09	1.98
Urena	MIA	STL	93.2	5.28	5.00	1.53		11.8%	8.6%	0.77	1.60
Velasquez	PHI	ATL	147.1	3.73	3.72	1.28		26.4%	9.0%	0.98	0.81
Jenkins	ATL	PHI	23.1	6.17	6.33	1.89		9.8%	14.3%	2.31	1.37
Volquez	KCR	TEX	324.2	3.94	4.42	1.34	50.0%	17.9%	8.6%	0.78	1.56
Griffin	TEX	KCR	62	4.06	4.71	1.29		20.4%	10.0%	1.31	0.76
Quintana	CWS	MIN	336.2	3.21	3.76	1.21	50.0%	21.2%	5.5%	0.78	1.31
Nolasco	MIN	CWS	154	5.73	4.35	1.48	16.7%	18.1%	6.2%	1.17	1.13
Brault	PIT	MIL
Guerra	MIL	PIT	98.2	3.01	4.25	1.13		21.0%	8.6%	0.91	1.37
Porcello	BOS	LAA	298	4.35	3.79	1.27	55.6%	20.4%	4.9%	1.18	1.35
Lincecum	LAA	BOS	106.1	5.42	4.80	1.71	40.0%	18.0%	10.8%	1.35	1.32
Godley	ARI	LAD	62.2	4.31	4.27	1.40		20.1%	10.0%	1.01	1.72
Maeda	LAD	ARI	113.2	3.25	3.66	1.11		25.1%	7.0%	0.95	1.21
Scherzer	WAS	SFG	370.1	2.84	2.72	0.93	60.0%	31.5%	4.8%	1.19	0.78
Samardzija	SFG	WAS	342	4.68	4.22	1.27	60.0%	18.1%	5.6%	1.26	1.11
Finnegan	CIN	SDP	159.1	4.52	4.87	1.37		18.4%	11.3%	1.69	1.18
Jackson	SDP	CIN	78.2	3.43	4.82	1.26	15.0%	15.9%	10.7%	0.80	1.02

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Max Scherzer WAS (at SF) – Scherzer stands tall among the rest of the pitchers on tonight’s slate, as both his floor and his ceiling rise tall above the other pitchers who are scheduled to toe the rubber. He has given up two or fewer runs in nine of his last ten starts, pitching six or more innings in each game and going 7.0 frames or deeper in eight of those ten. He has struck out no fewer than six batters in any game and has hit double digit Ks six times during that stretch, with a combined 91 strikeouts over 68.1 innings. Scherzer’s biggest nemesis this season has been the longball, but over the past month he has been more stingy with homers than any previous stretch this season, with just two home runs allowed across his last five starts and 34.1 innings pitched. Adding more fuel to his fire is the fact that ATT Park is one of the game’s toughest ballparks on home runs and the Giants have left the building fewer times this season than all but two other teams in the National League.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Vincent Velasquez PHI (at ATL) – Now that the dust has settled on a bit on his sample size, Velasquez’s numbers look a whole lot like last season, including hit rates and walk rates (and hence WHIPs) that are nearly identical. All told, he has 147.1 innings of a 3.73 ERA and 9.8 K/9 on his big league resume. Considering his offense, it’s something of a miracle that VV has an 8-2 record this season, and the odds of another W will be strong against Atlanta. The Braves don’t strike out much, but they more than make up the difference with a league-low .656 OPS and just 66 home runs (following yesterday’s two-homer barrage), 19 behind the next-lowest clubs (Miami and Kansas City). Velasquez has cooled off from his hot start, but he has settled in with a 2.70 ERA and 30:12 K:BB over 30 innings pitched in his last five starts.

Jose Quintana CHW (at MIN) – He’s gone 6.0 or more innings in seven of his last eight starts, going at last 7.0 frames in four of those games, and has kept the runs allowed at zero or one in three of his four starts this month. His K counts have been mostly unimpressive, but Quintana’s recent penchant for giving up big flies has remained intact; he has given up 11 homers over his last eight starts, this after giving up just two bombs through his first 12 turns. The Twins touched up QUintana for four runs in 7.0 frames the last time they faced him (June 28), but in the first two meetings this season Quintana had the upper hand, with a combined two runs given up over 13.0 innings of work.

Kenta Maeda LAD (vs. ARI) – Maeda has faced Arizona three times this season, and each successive outing against the Diamondbacks has been worse than the one before it. He blanked them over six innings in his second start of the season, followed by a mediocre start in which he gave up three runs (two earned) with six strikeouts over 5.1 frames. The third time around was ugly, with the D’backs scoring five runs on seven hits and a walk over 4.1 innings just two starts ago. Maeda has allowed just one total free pass over his last three starts (17.0 innings), a stretch that includes a 13-strikeout gem against the Padres back on July 10, but the Padres game was the only start of the month in which Maeda struck out more than five hitters or surrendered fewer than five hits. He also hasn’t gone deeper than 100 pitches in any game this month, has done so just twice in his last nine starts and has maxed out at 107 pitches in a game this season – he’ll need to be efficient with his pitch counts in order to go deep into the game.

Trevor Bauer CLE (vs. OAK) – Bauer has been cruising along with the lowest walk rate of his career, but the walks have begun to creep back into his stat-line, including 15 free passes over his last five games (26.2 innings). He gave up more than three runs just once in his first 12 starts but has surrendered four or more tallies in each of his last three games. He has also pitched 6.0 or fewer innings in his last five consecutive starts, following a five-start run of 7.0 or more frames in each turn. He also hasn’t struck out more than a half-dozen hitters in any of the last five games. So, after all of this negative narrative, why does Bauer qualify under the Raise category? His opponent, an Oakland squad that owns the second-lowest OPS in the American League and particularly struggles against right-handers. The days of Moneyball are far into the rearview mirror and today’s A’s have driven the second-fewest walks in the American League (Kansas City), a lack of patience that might help Bauer to cure his walk-related issues, at least for a day.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Iwakuma	0.319	3.53	0.297	3.94	0.247	0.738	0.283	4.07	0.252	0.00	19.6%
Lester	0.272	3.16	0.292	3.27	0.258	0.733	0.288	3.32	0.231	0.00	24.6%
Gausman	0.276	2.90	0.362	5.19	0.260	0.783	0.298	4.10	0.255	0.01	22.2%
Estrada	0.280	3.22	0.261	2.86	0.262	0.771	0.211	4.28	0.193	0.00	20.0%
McHugh	0.312	4.20	0.328	3.81	0.268	0.746	0.323	3.65	0.268	0.00	20.8%
Boyd	0.410	8.75	0.361	5.51	0.243	0.743	0.305	5.60	0.283	0.00	18.2%
Chatwood	0.275	3.73	0.336	3.57	0.241	0.711	0.281	4.13	0.246	0.01	15.1%
Matz	0.309	2.97	0.294	3.13	0.256	0.712	0.312	3.47	0.255	0.01	22.7%
Nova	0.372	5.02	0.317	4.72	0.241	0.702	0.294	4.85	0.269	0.00	16.7%
Odorizzi	0.271	2.91	0.332	4.46	0.248	0.729	0.277	3.83	0.235	0.00	21.9%
Graveman	0.343	3.61	0.320	4.58	0.255	0.743	0.302	4.52	0.274	0.00	15.0%
Bauer	0.303	3.87	0.308	4.53	0.250	0.703	0.279	4.09	0.231	0.00	22.4%
Leake	0.320	4.15	0.287	3.67	0.261	0.701	0.278	4.07	0.253	0.00	16.2%
Urena	0.340	5.95	0.338	4.73	0.262	0.760	0.309	4.48	0.284	0.00	11.8%
Velasquez	0.314	3.75	0.310	3.70	0.249	0.674	0.315	3.54	0.243	0.01	26.4%
Jenkins	0.342	6.97	0.458	5.54	0.243	0.684	0.282	7.72	0.295	0.00	9.8%
Volquez	0.300	3.50	0.316	4.39	0.259	0.743	0.294	3.93	0.251	0.00	17.9%
Griffin	0.371	5.52	0.257	2.61	0.266	0.724	0.265	4.67	0.233	0.02	20.4%
Quintana	0.272	3.35	0.310	3.17	0.259	0.743	0.310	3.29	0.255	0.00	21.2%
Nolasco	0.322	4.38	0.374	6.98	0.250	0.701	0.342	4.12	0.296	0.00	18.1%
Brault					0.240	0.699
Guerra	0.281	2.68	0.277	3.27	0.262	0.731	0.251	3.87	0.214	0.01	21.0%
Porcello	0.323	4.10	0.326	4.66	0.257	0.722	0.316	3.94	0.27	0.00	20.4%
Lincecum	0.304	2.91	0.440	8.50	0.273	0.775	0.343	5.02	0.298	0.00	18.0%
Godley	0.269	3.33	0.364	5.05	0.248	0.734	0.305	4.35	0.256	0.01	20.1%
Maeda	0.294	2.86	0.261	3.55	0.263	0.736	0.279	3.46	0.223	0.01	25.1%
Scherzer	0.295	3.03	0.225	2.66	0.265	0.739	0.259	3.02	0.199	0.01	31.5%
Samardzija	0.358	5.77	0.292	3.72	0.246	0.721	0.295	4.26	0.263	0.00	18.1%
Finnegan	0.324	3.00	0.336	5.01	0.255	0.725	0.249	5.55	0.234	0.00	18.4%
Jackson	0.285	2.45	0.293	4.14	0.246	0.705	0.246	4.34	0.22	0.00	15.9%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Marco Estrada TOR (vs. BAL) – The Orioles have the second-highest slugging percentage in the AL behind Boston, and Estrada has been homer-prone his entire career. Even over the past two seasons, in which Estrada has sequestered hits to the tune of just 6.3 H/9, he has still coughed up 1.2 HR/9. The Orioles have several sluggers that can do some damage to a flyball pitcher like Estrada, but he’s running into the club at a good time, considering that Chris Davis has been mired in a flu-ridden slump, Manny Machado has cooled considerably and Mark Trumbo is 0-for-18 over his last five games. Estrada has been the master of the baseline quality start, including three games in his last six that involved exactly three earned runs and 6.0 frames apiece, while the other three games came within one inning and one run of those numbers.

Steven Matz NYM (vs. COL) – Matz is coming off his first scoreless start in two months, a six-inning blanking of the Marlins that included seven baserunners and six strikeouts. Even with that game included, however, he has been a solid-yet-unspectacular pitcher for the past eight starts, with an ERA of 4.63 and 40 strikeouts in 46.2 innings over that stretch. The K counts have been very consistent, aside from a zero-strikeout start against the Braves, as Matz has recorded between five and seven Ks in each of the other eight starts. His numbers look a bit better when realizing that he’s faced the Cubs twice in his last five games, and he has largely been undone by home runs, giving up at least one bomb for a six-start stretch prior to his last outing.

Rick Porcello BOS (at LAA) – This is the first time in Porcello’s career that he has allowed less than a hit per inning. We’ll see if it lasts, but his draw to the strike zone leads to an avoidance of walks but a lot of balls in play. The Boston offense has driven him to a ridiculous record of 13-2, and his increased chance at a win boosts his value greatly on some DFS sites. He has recorded three strikeouts or fewer in half of his last six starts but punched out eight hitters in each of two others, an erratic pattern of strikeouts that adds to the risk of starting the right-hander.

Jake Odorizzi TB (vs. NYY) – In terms of pitch-count efficiency, Odorizzi has been one of the worst pitchers in the league, so it was a minor miracle when he tossed eight shutout frames against the Athletics last week. Odorizzi has been a tough pitcher to trust this season, as his high counts of pitches-per-batter limit his ability to churn innings or reap the counting-stat advantages of longer outings, essentially capping his potential fantasy scores with limited K counts and a smaller chance of earning the win (he only has four Ws this season in 21 starts). Meanwhile, he has been hit up for five or more runs three times in his last eight starts and the Oakland game was the first time that he had gone more than 6.0 frames since the end of May, ten starts ago.

Jeff Samardzija SF (vs. WAS)

Junior Guerra MIL (vs. PIT)

Kevin Gausman BAL (at TOR) – The Toronto offense is just not as intimidating as it once was. Jose Bautista is back but he’s slugging just .439 on the season. Troy Tulowitzki is a shell of his former self and the bottom half of the lineup is a mess, though Josh Donaldson is making a run for his second consecutive AL MVP award and Edwin Encarnacion is still a formidable power threat. Most damning of all, in Wednesday’s game the Jays had none other than “(player-popup)Melvin Upton Jr batting cleanup. Gausman owners can only hope for a similar configuration in tonight’s lineup.

Kendall Graveman OAK (at CLE)

Mike Leake STL (at MIA)

Collin McHugh HOU (at DET)

Jose Urena MIA (vs. STL)

Ivan Nova NYY (at TB)

Tyler Chatwood COL (at NYM)

Brandon Finnegan CIN (at SD)

Edinson Volquez KC (at TEX)

A.J. Griffin TEX (vs. KC)

Steven Brault PIT (at MIL)

Tyrell Jenkins ATL (vs. PHI)

Ricky Nolasco MIN (vs. CHW)