Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, June 3rd

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-06-04 02:48:28

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Bradley	ARI	CHC	53.1	5.91	4.97	1.57		15.9%	12.6%	0.84	2.04
Lackey	CHC	ARI	286.1	2.86	3.80	1.15	57.9%	20.9%	6.0%	0.88	1.32
Weaver	LAA	PIT	217.1	4.85	4.94	1.31	52.4%	13.5%	5.2%	1.49	0.71
Liriano	PIT	LAA	245	3.67	3.67	1.27	12.5%	25.5%	10.1%	0.96	1.84
Nelson	MIL	PHI	249.1	3.75	4.17	1.25		19.8%	8.9%	0.97	1.65
Velasquez	PHI	MIL	112.2	3.99	3.55	1.26		26.8%	8.6%	1.04	0.74
Eovaldi	NYY	BAL	215	4.06	3.84	1.37	50.0%	19.3%	6.9%	0.71	1.97
Tillman	BAL	NYY	237.2	4.43	4.55	1.32	42.9%	18.1%	9.1%	0.98	1.17
Rodon	CWS	DET	196.2	3.89	4.14	1.45		22.4%	10.7%	0.87	1.59
Zimmermann	DET	CWS	262.1	3.40	3.94	1.19	52.6%	18.9%	4.6%	1.03	1.14
Volquez	KCR	CLE	267.2	3.60	4.31	1.33	50.0%	18.3%	8.3%	0.74	1.48
Salazar	CLE	KCR	245.1	3.19	3.44	1.13	12.5%	26.6%	8.1%	0.95	1.22
Syndergaard	NYM	MIA	212.2	2.84	2.73	1.03		29.0%	4.7%	0.93	1.59
Koehler	MIA	NYM	241.1	4.18	4.86	1.43	52.6%	16.8%	10.7%	0.93	1.32
Dickey	TOR	BOS	280.1	4.08	4.70	1.22	47.6%	15.0%	7.2%	1.09	1.20
Price	BOS	TOR	289	3.08	3.26	1.11	52.4%	25.8%	5.5%	0.75	1.14
Gonzalez	WAS	CIN	233.2	3.74	3.81	1.38	46.7%	22.0%	8.5%	0.58	1.82
Finnegan	CIN	WAS	111	3.89	4.59	1.31		18.9%	11.0%	1.38	1.39
Walker	SEA	TEX	224	4.26	3.68	1.18		22.1%	5.5%	1.41	1.07
Darvish	TEX	SEA
Hahn	OAK	HOU	127	3.54	4.21	1.23	57.1%	14.7%	6.8%	0.78	2.32
Fister	HOU	OAK	163.2	4.07	4.59	1.36	58.3%	14.1%	6.6%	1.26	1.45
Odorizzi	TBR	MIN	231	3.35	3.95	1.14	36.8%	21.2%	6.7%	1.05	0.93
Nolasco	MIN	TBR	95.1	5.85	3.88	1.46	16.7%	21.0%	6.2%	1.04	1.19
Cueto	SFG	STL	293.2	3.13	3.69	1.10	76.2%	21.0%	5.1%	0.74	1.31
Wainwright	STL	SFG	92.2	4.47	4.37	1.34	84.2%	15.2%	5.3%	0.78	1.47
Teheran	ATL	LAD	269	3.71	4.15	1.25	70.0%	20.8%	8.3%	1.14	1.11
Maeda	LAD	ATL	57	3.00	3.90	1.05		22.4%	7.5%	0.79	1.19
Rusin	COL	SDP	173.1	5.19	4.18	1.58		15.4%	7.1%	1.04	2.18
Pomeranz	SDP	COL	144	3.19	3.72	1.15	25.0%	25.4%	10.1%	0.75	1.23

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Noah Syndergaard NYM (at MIA) – It is a thick slate tonight, full of intriguing options at almost every turn, but Thor reigns supreme. Syndergaard will seek revenge on his last start, which was cut short when the right-hander was ejected in the third inning for throwing a 99-mph pitch behind Chase Utley. Synder came in and threw an inning of relief on his throw day, striking out two batters on Tuesday in his single frame. His two starts prior to the ejection game went well – even for Thor – with 21 strikeouts against zero walks and a flawless ERA over 14.0 innings of work. Expect Syndergaard to pick up where he left off against a Marlins team that has been without Giancarlo Stanton for most of the past week, and a compromised slugger with empty swings on the days that he has made it into the starting lineup.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Danny Salazar CLE (vs. KC) – If there’s one thing that Salazar does exceptionally well, it’s strike batters out, and he currently leads the American League with 10.7 K/9 on the season. If there’s one thing that Kansas City does exceptionally well, it’s NOT strike out, with a K count (364) that’s the third-lowest in baseball following four consecutive seasons of compiling the fewest batter strikeouts in the game. Salazar has had a bumpy ride through his last two turns, though he is excused due to fact that he was facing two of the games biggest offenses in battling the Red Sox and Orioles, and prior to those two games he had posted a four-start run of a 1.33 ERA and 35 strikeouts in 27.0 innings. The game against Boston was the only outing of the season in which Salazar has given up more than three runs, a feat of run-suppression that is at least partially due to the mere three home runs that he has surrendered in 60.1 innings this season.

Johnny Cueto SF (at STL) – Cueto is the priciest pitcher available tonight on both FanDuel and DraftKings, but the combination of his inconsistent strikeouts and his difficult opponent conspire to rank him third on this list, and the decision to place him or Darvish at the no. 3 spot was a tough one. Cueto gave up six runs to the Reds to lead off the month of May, but he has shut down the run-scoring since that game, with a 0.92 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP across five starts. The K count has been modest, with just 31 punchouts in 39.1 innings across that excellent stretch, as Cueto’s value comes from his ability to pile up innings while limiting the damage rather than compiling strikeouts. The Cardinals might throw a wrench into those plans, and it’s possible that Cueto’s price tag has been overly inflated due to his successful march through the gauntlet of Coors Field in his last turn, but there are better pitchers available today who are facing easier opponents for a smaller hit to the salary cap.

Yu Darvish TEX (vs. SEA) – The threat of another limited pitch count is the only thing keeping him from the no. 2 spot on this list, as Rangers manager Jeff Banister said that Darvish will be kept with an “85-to-95 pitch window.” Darvish showed enough in his 5.0-inning, 81-pitch debut to not only raise optimism that he can make a full comeback to previous performance levels following Tommy John surgery, but that he might have discovered an extra gear with his new UCL. Consider this: Darvish’s average weighted fastball in his first start was 95.5 mph, which is the second-fastest average that the right-hander has posted for a single game in his MLB career, with the biggest game having occurred back in 2012. He only threw 18 breaking balls (sliders and curves – he also threw 9 cutters), a 22.2-percent frequency that is a nice reprieve from his 30-40 percent rates of the past. It may have just been a blip on the radar, but Darvish was still able to strike out seven Pirates out of 15 outs without leaning so heavily on the breakers, and all arrows are pointing up for his rest-of-season value.

Vincent Velasquez PHI (vs. MIL) – Since the 16-strikeout game against the Padres, Velasquez has been following an odd pattern. His first two games following the gem each involved at least three runs against yet just four strikeouts apiece, but then he blanked the Indians over six innings and struck out a half-dozen hitters. A pair of pedestrian outings followed, each involving four runs allowed over 6.0 innings of work with a modest five strikeouts, before a home start against the Marlins that featured 10 strikeouts and just five baserunners over 5.0 innings of work. His next two starts were clunkers, with each start lasting less than five innings while he allowed an identical nine hits and two walks in each contest, though road starts against the Cubs and Tigers is a tall order for any pitcher. If the pattern continues, then he will have a great outing against the Brewers, particularly since he’s pitching at home. VV’s splits this season: 0.74 ERA with 36:16 K:BB in 24.1 innings at home; 5.79 ERA with 31:13 K:BB ratio in 32.2 innings on the road.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Bradley	0.312	3.77	0.367	8.39	0.250	0.742	0.299	4.72	0.261	0.00	15.9%
Lackey	0.319	2.87	0.267	2.85	0.266	0.744	0.286	3.52	0.241	0.00	20.9%
Weaver	0.346	4.49	0.341	5.19	0.268	0.744	0.286	5.00	0.274	0.00	13.5%
Liriano	0.280	3.48	0.300	3.73	0.233	0.667	0.288	3.72	0.226	0.01	25.5%
Nelson	0.356	5.02	0.266	2.80	0.243	0.676	0.275	4.22	0.235	0.00	19.8%
Velasquez	0.303	3.47	0.322	4.58	0.254	0.712	0.311	3.55	0.241	0.01	26.8%
Eovaldi	0.347	4.60	0.281	3.66	0.257	0.759	0.325	3.45	0.27	0.01	19.3%
Tillman	0.308	3.31	0.330	5.57	0.244	0.729	0.283	4.26	0.247	0.00	18.1%
Rodon	0.246	3.16	0.350	4.19	0.271	0.776	0.319	3.96	0.255	0.01	22.4%
Zimmermann	0.321	3.65	0.276	3.14	0.250	0.697	0.296	3.72	0.257	0.00	18.9%
Volquez	0.296	3.20	0.314	4.00	0.252	0.727	0.296	3.80	0.251	0.00	18.3%
Salazar	0.289	3.57	0.280	2.83	0.269	0.737	0.275	3.42	0.215	0.01	26.6%
Syndergaard	0.288	3.29	0.250	2.43	0.259	0.697	0.292	2.79	0.222	0.01	29.0%
Koehler	0.343	4.41	0.307	3.94	0.242	0.714	0.289	4.51	0.253	0.00	16.8%
Dickey	0.306	4.02	0.317	4.13	0.271	0.763	0.262	4.49	0.243	0.00	15.0%
Price	0.294	3.03	0.276	3.10	0.268	0.788	0.298	2.85	0.231	0.01	25.8%
Gonzalez	0.280	3.27	0.317	3.87	0.248	0.713	0.327	3.24	0.259	0.01	22.0%
Finnegan	0.322	3.25	0.315	4.10	0.266	0.771	0.245	4.99	0.224	0.01	18.9%
Walker	0.299	4.01	0.318	4.56	0.258	0.737	0.282	4.15	0.244	0.01	22.1%
Darvish					0.246	0.731
Hahn	0.341	4.90	0.247	2.31	0.246	0.743	0.273	4.07	0.246	0.01	14.7%
Fister	0.347	4.40	0.320	3.71	0.250	0.702	0.291	4.71	0.272	0.00	14.1%
Odorizzi	0.262	2.64	0.327	4.15	0.242	0.696	0.265	3.76	0.227	0.01	21.2%
Nolasco	0.330	5.56	0.355	6.10	0.243	0.703	0.348	3.65	0.288	0.00	21.0%
Cueto	0.267	2.51	0.300	3.66	0.264	0.756	0.284	3.22	0.236	0.00	21.0%
Wainwright	0.314	4.42	0.334	4.50	0.263	0.738	0.313	3.69	0.277	0.01	15.2%
Teheran	0.376	5.17	0.246	2.57	0.244	0.722	0.277	4.22	0.238	0.00	20.8%
Maeda	0.261	2.33	0.263	3.60	0.253	0.674	0.250	3.51	0.207	0.02	22.4%
Rusin	0.362	5.64	0.363	4.88	0.239	0.681	0.345	4.28	0.306	0.00	15.4%
Pomeranz	0.210	1.91	0.296	3.80	0.258	0.708	0.255	3.42	0.2	0.00	25.4%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

David Price BOS (vs. TOR) – Price has a nice four-start run of quality starts going, the last of which came against these Jays at the Rogers Centre. He has a 2.63 ERA over his last four starts, with nearly a K-per-inning, but his K count over that stretch has tumbled: 12, 5, 6 and just 3 strikeouts in his last start. Red Sox nation will take a modest strikeout total if it comes paired with binary numbers on the scoreboard, and to that end Price has been successful of late, which is critical after coughing up five or more runs in four of his first seven starts as a member of the Red Sox.

Julio Teheran ATL (at LAD) – Teheran is on a fantastic run, having allowed three or fewer runs in eight consecutive starts; though that streak was admittedly more impressive heading into his last game, when he had allowed one or zero earned runs in six straight. His 12-strikeout game against the Brewers two starts ago was a complete outlier with the rest of this season, and in the other four of his last five games Teheran has punched out five hitters or fewer.

John Lackey CHC (vs. ARI) – From the standpoint of run prevention, Lackey has been extremely consistent for the past month. In six May outings, he pitched 7.0 or more innings five times and allowed two earned runs or fewer five times, with the one outlier in each case being a respectable 6.0 innings in one start and three earned runs in another. The two April starts that saw him give up six earnies apiece have essentially disappeared from his overall stat-line, which features a 3.16 ERA in 68.1 innings.

Kenta Maeda LAD (vs. ATL) – Maeda finally shook off the four-run spiders that had crawled into his stat-line, blanking the Mets over 5.0 innings after giving up exactly four runs in three straight games and four of his last five. He hasn’t pitched more than 5.0 innings since May 6 and has completed the seventh inning just once this season. His pitch count has been under 85 total throws in each of his last three games, including the game with five strong innings against the Mets, so the upside from his facing the Braves is mitigated by the strong possibility that he will be held to 6.0 innings or fewer even if he has a smooth ride against the light-hitting Braves.

Jordan Zimmermann DET (vs. CHW) – Zimmermann comes back from a nearly two-week hiatus after leaving his last start early due to a strained hamstring. Hammies have a tendency to flare up, so Zimm isn’t out of the woods with the injury yet, and manager Brad Ausmus might decide to go easy on the pitch count in JZ’s first start back. The right-hander was a run-prevention machine in April, but he gave up multiple runs in each of his four starts of May, though in most cases he pitched well enough to get the quality start, his lack of strikeouts put quite a dent into his fantasy scores. Zimm struck out nine batters in the eight-run game against Minnesota, but in his other three starts last month he had a miniscule count of eight strikeouts through 20.2 innings.

Taijuan Walker SEA (at TEX) – In his first four starts of the 2016 season, Walker held opponents to two runs or fewer and pitched 6.0 or more innings in every game. Then the calendar flipped to May, and in six starts since Walker has only cleared six innings once and has given up three or more runs in every start. The excellent K:BB of 50:11 in 54.1 innings this season paints a picture of his potential, but his bumpy performance of late and fierce Texas opponent give pause. He might make for an interesting play in large tournaments, with an outside shot at posting a high K-count in tonight’s game.

Jimmy Nelson MIL (at PHI) – Nelson is not as good as his baseline stats suggests, but his soft opponent should allow him to fake it for one more game.

Jake Odorizzi TB (at MIN) – He hasn’t whiffed more than seven batters in a game since his first of the season, and the homers have been a problem recently, as Odorizzi has given up six home runs in his last four games. The downside outweighs the upside, but there is some of the latter in the form of a Sano-less Minnesota offense.

Drew Pomeranz SD (vs. COL) – He gave up six earned runs to Arizona in his last start, matching his total from the previous seven starts (and 42.0 innings) combined. Despite the hiccup, it’s time to start believing in Pomeranz, who has allowed two or fewer runs in eight of his 10 turns this season, has struck out eight or more batters in four of those starts and once banked the Cubs for 6.0 frames while piling up 10 strikeouts. He’s only enjoyed the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park in three of his 10 starts this season, where the venue may help to mask the fact that he’s walking a batter for every two innings pitched (4.5 BB/9).

Carlos Rodon CHW (at DET)

Gio Gonzalez WAS (at CIN)

Francisco Liriano PIT (vs. LAA)

Adam Wainwright STL (vs. SF)

Nate Eovaldi NY (at BAL)

Edinson Volquez KC (at CLE)

Chris Tillman BAL (vs. NYY)

Brandon Finnegan CIN (vs. WAS)

Chris Rusin COL (at SD)

Jesse Hahn OAK (at HOU)

Ricky Nolasco MIN (vs. TB)

Doug Fister HOU (vs. OAK)

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

Tom Koehler MIA (vs. NYM)

Archie Bradley ARI (at CHC) – We have to feel bad for these poor kids like Bradley and Julio Urias who get thrown to the wolv-, err Cubs, to get torn apart in front of a live audience.

Jered Weaver LAA (at PIT)

R.A. Dickey TOR (at BOS)

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